1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic policies have raised market expectations for future livelihood - related policies, but demand recovery takes time. Economic data shows a marginal downward pressure, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Tariff risks are postponed, and overseas market's risk - preference has been corrected, with an increased expectation of a US interest rate cut [1]. - In the short term, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to find support in the range of 7.16 - 7.22, with a likely fluctuation center below 7.20. The market's expectation of a US interest rate cut is influenced by economic data, and the US inflation situation is mixed [3]. - The stock index is cautiously optimistic in the short term but should be wary of corrections. The bond market is still suppressed by the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the shipping index futures are expected to continue to fluctuate [5][6]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The US CPI data has increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut. In the medium - to - long - term, it may be bullish, while in the short - term, it is bearish but shows signs of stabilizing [9][11]. Base Metals - Copper: The lower support for copper prices can be raised from 77,000 yuan/ton to 78,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [12][13]. - Aluminum: Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range, alumina to fluctuate, and cast aluminum alloy to show a similar trend. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for aluminum, be cautious of alumina's high - level decline, and consider arbitrage operations for cast aluminum alloy [14][15]. - Nickel and stainless steel: They are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - Tin: The price has been slightly boosted due to production shortfalls at Bisie mine, and it is expected to rise slightly [17][18]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The short - term trend is downward. With the weakening of seasonal demand, the risk of supply surplus increases, and attention should be paid to downward risks [30][32]. - LPG: The market remains in a loose situation, with an increase in warehouse receipts [34]. - PX - PTA: It is recommended to buy low to expand the PTA processing margin [36]. - MEG - bottle chips: Ethylene glycol is expected to run strongly with coal, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Bottle chips' absolute price fluctuates with the cost side [38][39]. - Methanol: The 09 contract has a weak fundamental outlook [40]. - PP: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly under the influence of sentiment [43]. - PE: It mainly follows macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the future situation depends on the degree of demand recovery [45]. - PVC: It should be treated as a short - position target [47]. - Pure benzene and styrene: They are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to sell high to shrink the pure benzene - styrene spread [48][49]. - Fuel oil: It remains weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil and suppresses the price [50]. - Asphalt: It follows the cost side and oscillates weakly [51]. - Urea: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [52]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda: The market expectations are volatile. Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern; glass is in a weak - balance state; caustic soda has a near - weak and far - strong pattern [53][54][56]. Others - Pulp: It is expected to oscillate upward, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips [57]. - Logs: The 09 contract is recommended to go long on dips, and a positive spread arbitrage can be considered for the 09 - 11 contracts [58]. - Propylene: The spot market continues to rise slightly [58]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Macro - **Market Information**: Multiple policies have been introduced, including consumption loan subsidies and service - industry loan subsidies. The US CPI is lower than expected, and the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut has increased [1]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic policies have raised market expectations, but demand recovery is slow. Overseas, the risk - preference has been corrected, and the inflation situation is mixed [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB/USD exchange rate declined, and the central parity rate was adjusted downward [1]. - **Core Logic**: Externally, the US economic situation and inflation data affect the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut. Internally, the central bank's guidance and the economic fundamentals impact the exchange rate [3]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index rose with increased trading volume, and the futures contracts rose with reduced volume [5]. - **Core Logic**: Although the stock index rose, the number of falling stocks increased, and the optimism declined. The US inflation data may bring some positive support to the A - share market, but corrections should be watched out for [5]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Bond futures fell, and spot bond yields rose. The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. Shipping Index Futures - **Market Review**: The shipping index futures prices opened lower and then rebounded, with most contracts closing slightly lower [7]. - **Core Logic**: The suspension of the 24% tariff between China and the US has a neutral impact, and the futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated, with the US inflation data affecting the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut [9]. - **Core Logic**: The market's expectation of a US interest rate cut has increased, and the medium - to - long - term trend is bullish, while the short - term is bearish but stabilizing [11]. Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index opened low and closed high [12]. - **Core Logic**: The lower support for copper prices has been raised, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices showed different trends [14]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum is in a high - level range, alumina has a weak fundamental outlook, and cast aluminum alloy has a relatively good fundamental situation [14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: They continued to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The tin index rose slightly [17]. - **Core Logic**: Supply - side factors have boosted the price, and the short - term trend is upward [18]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: The price declined [30]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term trend is downward, and the risk of supply surplus increases [32]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: The futures prices rose, and warehouse receipts increased [34]. - **Core Logic**: The market remains loose [34]. - **PX - PTA** - **Market Review**: The prices followed the cost side to decline [34][35]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to expand the PTA processing margin [36]. - **MEG - bottle chips** - **Market Review**: Ethylene glycol's inventory increased, and bottle chips' situation was related to the cost side [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: Ethylene glycol is recommended to buy on dips, and bottle chips' price fluctuates with the cost side [38][39]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The 09 contract price was at a certain level [39]. - **Core Logic**: The 09 contract has a weak fundamental outlook [40]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: The price fluctuated, and the inventory increased [40][42]. - **Core Logic**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [43]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: The price rose, and the inventory increased [44]. - **Core Logic**: It follows macro - sentiment fluctuations [45]. - **PVC** - **Market Review**: The price situation was related to supply, demand, and inventory [45][46]. - **Core Logic**: It should be treated as a short - position target [47]. - **Pure benzene and styrene** - **Market Review**: The prices fluctuated, and the inventory changed [47][49]. - **Core Logic**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to shrink the spread [48][49]. - **Fuel oil** - **Market Review**: The price was weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was affected by crude oil [50]. - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil remains weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure [50]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: The price followed the cost side to decline [51]. - **Core Logic**: It oscillates weakly following the cost side [51]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: The price was at a certain level, and the inventory decreased [52]. - **Core Logic**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [52]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The prices of the three products showed different trends, and the inventory situation varied [52][54][56]. - **Core Logic**: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern; glass is in a weak - balance state; caustic soda has a near - weak and far - strong pattern [53][54][56]. Others - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable [57]. - **Core Logic**: It is expected to oscillate upward, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips [57]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The price was in a certain range, and the inventory was low [57]. - **Core Logic**: The 09 contract is recommended to go long on dips, and a positive spread arbitrage can be considered for the 09 - 11 contracts [58]. - **Propylene** - **Market Review**: The price rose slightly, and the device had some changes [58]. - **Core Logic**: The spot market continues to rise slightly [58].

1. Index Trends - On August 11th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34% to close at 3647.55 points with a trading volume of 751.329 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46% to close at 11291.43 points with a trading volume of 1075.644 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.55% with a trading volume of 401.163 billion yuan, opening at 6850.57, closing at 6943.94, with a daily high of 6957.4 and a low of 6850.57 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.08% with a trading volume of 277.034 billion yuan, opening at 6335.43, closing at 6391.76, with a daily high of 6404.83 and a low of 6335.43 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.43% with a trading volume of 360.686 billion yuan, opening at 4110.29, closing at 4122.51, with a daily high of 4134.25 and a low of 4103.6 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.03% with a trading volume of 90.334 billion yuan, opening at 2791.35, closing at 2789.9, with a daily high of 2800.89 and a low of 2783.65 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 105.81 points from the previous close, with sectors such as power equipment, electronics, and pharmaceutical biology significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 68.26 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 17.54 points from the previous close, with sectors such as food and beverage, electronics, and power equipment significantly pulling the index up, while the banking sector pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 0.73 points from the previous close, with sectors such as food and beverage, non - banking finance, and electronics significantly pulling the index up, while sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, non - ferrous metals, and banking pulled it down [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 average daily basis was - 4.24, IM01 was - 75.76, IM02 was - 265.4, and IM03 was - 447.73 [12]. - IC00 average daily basis was - 6.74, IC01 was - 72.91, IC02 was - 228.99, and IC03 was - 368.34 [12]. - IF00 average daily basis was 0.18, IF01 was - 11.76, IF02 was - 41.12, and IF03 was - 73.78 [12]. - IH00 average daily basis was 0.63, IH01 was 1.52, IH02 was 3.18, and IH03 was 2.99 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Rollover Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data for IM rollover point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [24][25]. - Data for IC rollover point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [26]. - Data for IF rollover point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [27]. - Data for IH rollover point differences and their annualized costs are presented at different time intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 [23].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced increased volatility, with lithium carbonate main contract closing at 81,000 yuan/ton, hitting the daily limit [1] - The mining activities in the Jiangxi Yichun area have been fully suspended, which accounts for approximately 12.5% of the domestic lithium carbonate monthly output [1] - The main contract for polysilicon closed at 52,985 yuan/ton, with a rise of 6.34%, driven by sustained demand in the new energy sector [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Industrial silicon, linked to the new energy supply chain, saw a price increase to 9,000 yuan/ton, up by 4.83%, influenced by rising prices of related products and expectations of supply constraints due to environmental policies [1] - The short-term outlook for the soda ash industry indicates a clear downward trend in spot prices due to overcapacity and slow demand transformation [4] - The polyester industry chain is facing profit imbalances, with PX maintaining high profits while PTA and terminal polyester profits are at low points [5] Group 3: External Influences - The crude oil market is under pressure, with the main contract falling to 489.4 yuan/barrel, down by 1.41%, due to OPEC+ production increases and expectations of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Russia regarding Ukraine [1] - The short-term market trends will be influenced by sudden disruptions in resource supply and long-term policy framework adjustments, alongside weather changes and trade policy adjustments affecting agricultural products [3]

人民财讯8月8日电，中国金融期货交易所8月8日公告称，《中国金融期货交易所程序化交易管理办法》 已报告中国证监会，现予以发布。以上规则自2025年10月9日起实施。 ...

Overall Investment Outlook - The stock index is expected to fluctuate, influenced by the Fed's rate - cut expectations and the resilience of the domestic market [1] - The 10 - year treasury bond is likely to fluctuate, with 1.70% as the central position of the operating range [2] Stock Index Core View - Trump nominated Stephen Milan, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, as a Fed governor until the end of January next year. Fed Governor Waller is considered a top candidate for Fed Chair by the Trump team. The number of continued unemployment claims in the US last week rose to the highest since the end of 2021. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased by 4.1%. China's foreign exchange reserves in July decreased by 0.76% month - on - month, and the central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 9th consecutive month. The stock market turnover and index continue to recover, and the stock index may fluctuate [1] Strategy Recommendation - The stock index is expected to have a fluctuating trend [1] Market Review - The main contract futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 fell by 0.15%, 0.01%, 0.64%, and 0.30% respectively [5] Technical Analysis - The KDJ indicator shows that the market has a rebound trend [5] Treasury Bond Core View - The market on Thursday continued the recent favorable pattern, with the yield moving downward. Although the July import and export data announced on Thursday were much better than expected and the previous values, the market did not price them much. Other fundamental data may decline in the short term. Considering the approaching major event in September, production restrictions may increase, and the intensity of production activities will decline. The 10 - year treasury bond will likely have 1.70% as the central position of the operating range [2] Strategy Recommendation - The treasury bond market is expected to fluctuate [3] Market Review - The 10 - year, 5 - year, and 30 - year main contracts of treasury bonds rose by 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained unchanged [6] Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [7] Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,092.60 | - 0.15 | 54,603 | 149,221 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,797.80 | - 0.01 | 29,486 | 56,447 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,226.40 | - 0.64 | 48,504 | 106,065 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,750.00 | - 0.30 | 119,420 | 179,795 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.62 | 0.05 | 55,898 | 168,410 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.83 | 0.05 | 49,908 | 116,978 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.37 | 0.03 | 98,360 | 97,159 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.37 | 0.00 | 31,654 | 83,798 | [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that on August 7, the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends. The overall trading volume of stock index futures increased, indicating a rise in investors' trading enthusiasm. The report also presents data on price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and the position changes of the top 20 members of the futures contracts, along with information on trend strength and important economic drivers [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Index and Spot Data Tracking - **Index Futures Price and Change**: On August 7, the closing prices of the four major stock indexes showed different trends. The CSI 300 rose 0.03% to 4,114.67, the SSE 50 rose 0.03% to 2,798.31, the CSI 500 fell 0.31% to 6,337.54, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.01% to 6,862.15. Among the corresponding futures contracts, IF2508 fell 0.07%, IH2508 fell 0.01%, IC2508 fell 0.50%, and IM2508 fell 0.18% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of all four major stock index futures increased. IF increased by 19,361 lots, IH by 11,776 lots, IC by 15,809 lots, and IM by 19,113 lots. The total open interest also increased, with IF up 7,431 lots, IH up 2,077 lots, IC up 3,443 lots, and IM up 4,114 lots [1][2]. 3.2 Basis Data The report provides the basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM from July 14 to August 7, showing the basis changes of the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [4]. 3.3 Position Changes of Top 20 Members The report shows the long and short position changes of the top 20 members of each futures contract. For example, in the IF contracts, the long positions of IF2508 and IF2509 increased by 2,185 and 4,996 lots respectively, and the short positions increased by 1,562 and 3,282 lots respectively [5]. 3.4 Trend Strength The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers In July, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 8% year - on - year (previous value: 7.2%), imports increased by 4.8% (previous value: 2.4%), and the trade surplus was 705.1 billion yuan (previous value: 825.8 billion yuan). In US dollars, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year (previous value: 5.9%), imports increased by 4.1% (previous value: 1.1%), and the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars (previous value: 114.75 billion US dollars). In the first seven months, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [6]. 3.6 Stock Market Performance The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.85 trillion yuan, up from 1.76 trillion yuan the previous day. The rare earth permanent magnet concept led to a warming of cyclical stocks, and the military stocks maintained their popularity. The rare earth permanent magnet, rare earth, and IGBT concepts led the gains, while three pharmaceutical sub - sectors, CRO, weight - loss drugs, and innovative drugs, led the decline [7].

Group 1: Index Trends - On August 4th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% to close at 3583.31 points with a trading volume of 639.776 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.46% to close at 11041.56 points with a trading volume of 858.775 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.04% with a trading volume of 329.555 billion yuan, opening at 6637.84, closing at 6739.69, with a daily high of 6739.73 and a low of 6631.12 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.78% with a trading volume of 236.649 billion yuan, opening at 6190.34, closing at 6261.73, with a daily high of 6261.96 and a low of 6187.62 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.55% with a trading volume of 80.252 billion yuan, opening at 2748.62, closing at 2769.39, with a daily high of 2769.39 and a low of 2748.62 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 69.22 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, machinery, and national defense and military industry significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 48.53 points from the previous close, with sectors such as national defense and military industry, media, and non - ferrous metals significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 15.26 points from the previous close, with sectors such as banks, non - ferrous metals, and electronics significantly contributing to the upward movement [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 35.52, IM01 of - 107.93, IM02 of - 294.98, and IM03 of - 466.83 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 34.72, IC01 of - 96.84, IC02 of - 247.57, and IC03 of - 377.49 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 6.85, IF01 of - 19.1, IF02 of - 50.68, and IF03 of - 81.55 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 0.09, IH01 of 0.34, IH02 of 2.36, and IH03 of 2.52 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., 09:45, 10:00 etc.) are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 53.1193, IM00 - 02 was - 158.791 etc. [21]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, like at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 26.1467, IC00 - 02 was - 90.0318 etc. [22]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, for example, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 5.99267, IF00 - 02 was - 13.4098 etc. [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times are provided, such as at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was - 1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889 etc. [24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The oil market in the fourth quarter faces greater supply - demand easing pressure due to OPEC+ production increase, but is supported by sanctions risks and peak - season demand. The price of precious metals maintains a buy - on - dips strategy in the shock trend. For most industrial metals, there are short - term supply and demand pressures, and the prices are expected to be volatile. The shipping index is expected to decline, and most agricultural products' prices are affected by factors such as weather and trade policies, showing a volatile pattern [1][2] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which brings supply - demand pressure to the oil market in the fourth quarter. After the price correction this week, there is still upward risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil. Also, pay attention to the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs by August 12 [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Crude oil leads the decline of oil - related futures. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the FU - LU crack spread is expected to remain weak [20] - **Asphalt**: Venezuelan crude oil inflows to China increased by 3.8% in July. The August production plan is lower than that in July, but some refineries may over - produce. Demand in South China recovers slowly, and the overall commercial inventory increases slightly. The price follows the direction of crude oil with limited fluctuations [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP is significantly reduced, but the spot discount narrows. The supply is relatively loose, and the domestic demand has bottom - line support. The spot price has limited room to decline further [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals maintain a strong shock. The market is worried about the authenticity of US data and economic prospects, and the interest - rate market expects the Fed to restart rate cuts in September. Adopt a buy - on - dips strategy [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The supply loss rate in the second half of the year is expected to increase. The social inventory increased to 135,900 tons on Monday. Hold short positions [3] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to increase, and the demand feedback is negative. The price may be under pressure to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the support around 20,200 yuan. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton in August [4][8] - **Zinc**: The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to policy changes during the "Golden September and Silver October". Wait for opportunities to short at high positions [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel market returns to fundamentals. The upstream price support weakens, and the overall inventory is still high. Actively intervene in short positions as the rebound is in the middle - to - late stage [9] - **Tin**: The tin price declined overnight. Pay attention to the support of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions at high levels [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The iron - water output remains high, the production increase rate of silicon - manganese is lower than expected, and the manganese ore price increases slightly. The price bottom gradually rises, but the upside is limited [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The iron - water output is slightly down, the demand is fair, the supply is slightly up, and the inventory is slightly increased. The price is under increasing pressure [18] - **Rare Metals** - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fluctuates. The downstream replenishes goods as the price drops. The production of smelters decreases week - on - week. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [11] - **Cobalt**: The report does not mention cobalt - related content Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price continues to decline with reduced positions. The supply in major production areas increases marginally, and the demand growth in August is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price slightly declines. The supply continues to put pressure, and the spot processing margin needs to be repaired. Pay attention to the cost and demand in the short and medium terms respectively [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continues to decline due to weak supply - demand and oil - price drag. The supply increases, and the port inventory rises [27] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The prices follow the raw materials. The short - fiber industry may be boosted in the peak season, and the bottle - chip processing margin is limited by over - capacity [28] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean may have an early - harvest expectation. The domestic oil - mill soybean - meal inventory increases. The soybean - meal market is expected to fluctuate before the tariff issue is clear [32] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean may have a good harvest. The Chinese soybean oil may strengthen in the medium term. The Malaysian palm oil has weak short - term supply - demand. Adopt a low - buying strategy [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus is on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The rapeseed - related futures prices are expected to fluctuate [34] - **Corn**: The continuous release of imported corn affects market expectations. The Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [36] - **Cotton**: The US cotton has normal weather, and the Chinese cotton has slow inventory digestion and weak downstream demand. The 9 - 1 spread may rebound. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday - trading strategy [39] - **Sugar**: The US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's 25/26 sugar - production season increases. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate [40] - **Apple**: The price of early - maturing apples starts to decline. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [41] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index declines slightly. The shipping companies' cargo - collection pressure increases, and the short - term view is bearish [19] - **Building Materials** - **Glass**: The glass market is weak with inventory accumulation. The market returns to real - situation trading [29] - **Timber**: The timber demand and supply improve, and the futures price is expected to rise [42] - **Paper Pulp**: The paper - pulp price declines. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations [43] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The stock market rises, and the futures - index contracts all close up. The market sentiment is relatively positive in the medium term. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [44] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury - bond futures fluctuate. The price spread between near - and far - month contracts widens. The yield curve is expected to steepen [45]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In July 2025, the stock index continued to oscillate upward, breaking through the high of the year, and all industry indices achieved positive returns. Although the market fluctuated at the end of the month, the continuous policy efforts changed market expectations significantly, and the inflow of funds continued. The bullish atmosphere in the stock market became more evident, and the upward trend of the stock index remained unchanged despite the oscillations [3][4][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Performance Review - Bottoming Out and Stabilizing - In July 2025, the market continued to oscillate upward. By July 30, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index rose 5.47%, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose 3.96%, the CSI 500 index rose 6.75%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 5.7% [5]. - All industries achieved positive returns, with non - metallic materials and metal materials rising more than 10% monthly, healthcare having a high increase, and the bank index, the previous market stabilizer, having the smallest increase [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Performance Review - Continued Convergence of Premium - After June, the premium of stock index futures continued to converge. After the peak of concentrated dividends of listed companies passed and the spot market performed well, the basis returned to normal. After the expiration and delivery of the July contracts and the listing of the 2603 contracts, the basis of the next - quarter contracts of IC and IM expanded periodically, but the basis of IF did not expand significantly, and IH even showed a premium [12]. - In July, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased steadily. The average daily trading volume of IM, IF, IH, and IC increased by 1.9%, 7.3%, 8.6%, and 6.7% respectively compared with the previous month, and the average daily open interest increased by 1.9%, 3.5%, 8.2%, and 12.1% respectively. The 2509 contract's position as the absolute main contract was unshakable, and it was expected to shift positions to the 2512 contract on a large scale starting in August [16]. - The convergence of the premium significantly reduced the roll - over cost of short positions in stock index futures. The cost of rolling over the current - month contracts of IM, IC, and IF to the next - month contracts was the lowest, with monthly average annualized costs of 9.57%, 7.64%, and 2.82% respectively, down 3.17, 1.68, and 1.53 percentage points from the previous month. The cost of rolling over IH short positions to the next - quarter contracts was the lowest, with a monthly average annualized cost of 0.12% [23]. - From the perspective of the positions of major seats, the net short positions of the major seats of each variety were generally stable. The net short positions of the major seats of IM showed a slight upward trend, with the average monthly net short positions of the top ten seats increasing by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous month; the average monthly net short positions of the top five seats of IH also increased by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous month [26]. 3.3 Oscillations Do Not Change the Upward Trend - **Economic Policy Continues to Strengthen**: In July, continuous policy signals changed market expectations significantly. The prices of pro - cyclical commodities reversed sharply, driving up the stock prices of sectors such as rare earths and non - ferrous metals, and also strengthening sectors such as steel and coal, creating a bullish atmosphere in the stock market. Although the market oscillated significantly on July 30, the policy of "regulating disorderly competition among enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations and promoting capacity governance in key industries" is expected to be continuously implemented in the second half of the year, which will have a positive impact on the industry ecosystem and the performance of listed companies [30][31]. - **Event - Driven Re - evaluation**: On July 19, the construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held. Affected by this, the Yarlung Zangbo hydropower concept sector and related stocks rose sharply, and sectors such as cement, building materials, engineering machinery, steel, and construction also rose significantly. The project has a long construction period and large investment, which is expected to benefit relevant sectors, and the market may benefit from the re - evaluation of multiple weak sectors [32][33]. - **Continuous Inflow of Funds into the Market**: According to the second - quarter report of public funds, Central Huijin increased its holdings of key broad - based ETFs on a large scale in the second quarter of 2025, with a holding scale exceeding 200 billion yuan, which stabilized market expectations. At the same time, the margin trading balance reached a new high this year, indicating high investor confidence and a positive impact on the market [34][35].

Research Views Index Futures - Yesterday, the A-share market oscillated and pulled back, with the Wind All A index down 0.4% and a trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.82%, the CSI 500 index dropped 0.65%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.38%, and the SSE 300 index declined 0.02%. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to boost inflation. The recent stock market rally is driven by long-term, medium-term, and short-term factors. It's advisable to wait for clearer policies and market trends before adjusting positions [1]. Treasury Futures - Treasury futures closed higher, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts up 0.40%, 0.15%, 0.08%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 3090 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 1585 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to have a repair market, and short-term treasury bonds are expected to stop falling and stabilize [2]. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH rose 0.21%, IF fell 0.12%, IC dropped 0.76%, and IM declined 0.87%. Among stock indices, the SSE 50 rose 0.38%, the SSE 300 fell 0.02%, the CSI 500 dropped 0.65%, and the CSI 1000 declined 0.82% [3]. Treasury Futures - TS rose 0.03%, TF rose 0.08%, T rose 0.16%, and TL rose 0.42%. Yields of treasury bonds decreased, with the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields down 1.52, 0.92, 1.41, and 2.15 respectively [3]. Market News - The Politburo meeting on July 30 stated that macro policies should continue to exert force and add strength in a timely manner. Fiscal policies should be more proactive, and monetary policies should maintain liquidity and lower financing costs [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IM, and IC, including their historical price trends and basis changes [6][7][9]. Treasury Futures - Charts show the trends of treasury futures contracts, yields of treasury bonds, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [13][16][18]. Exchange Rates - Charts display the middle rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of other currency pairs such as the euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen [21][22][26].