Report Industry Investment Rating - For stock index futures, the strategy is to expect a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] Core Views Stock Index - US inflation cooled more than expected, with the March CPI down 0.1% month - on - month, the lowest in nearly five years, and the core CPI up 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate in four years. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the tariff issue negotiation with the US. The domestic stock market has been strong recently, but some investors may take profits after consecutive gains due to the impact of the external market. The second - stage competition of the tariff war has begun, and there will be more subsequent games. Stock index futures may operate in a volatile manner [1] Treasury Bond - The previous monetary policy was firm. With the increasing external uncertainties, the expectation of loose money has become more solid. Coupled with the abundant lending by large banks in the past two days, the capital interest rate has steadily declined, and the liquidity has improved. The market is betting on the approaching of loose monetary policy, and the yield curve is more likely to steepen. The certainty of the short - to - medium - term is relatively stronger. Although the long - end lacks the basis for a significant upward movement, it is affected by external tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of negotiations between countries, with significantly increased volatility and more repeated trends. Overall, the long - end interest rate may need the catalysis of the substantial implementation of domestic loose policies to break through the previous low [2] Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.46%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.74%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.86%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 2.33% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.005%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.24%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [6] Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is operating weakly in a volatile manner [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is operating strongly in a volatile manner [7] Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3673.00 | 1.459 | 83748 | 141689 | | 2025/04/10 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2582.20 | 0.741 | 43873 | 48237 | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5509.00 | 1.860 | 60899 | 65270 | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5578.20 | 2.334 | 222566 | 174420 | | 2025/04/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | - 0.005 | 84854 | 188699 | | 2025/04/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.50 | 0.066 | 69578 | 180190 | | 2025/04/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.87 | - 0.241 | 131204 | 102587 | | 2025/04/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.70 | 0.029 | 43868 | 112006 | [9]

美国联邦基金期货继续上涨，12月合约上涨10个基点，暗示美联储今年将降息109个基点。 ...

Report Overview - **Date**: April 2, 2025 - **Research Institution**: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Co., Ltd. - **Research Team**: Li Binlian, Ma Chen, Xue Libing, Li Jun Investment Ratings - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Slightly Strong; Medium - term: Strong [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term: Narrow - range Fluctuation; Medium - term: Strong [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Short - term: Weak; Medium - term: Under Pressure [3] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflows. Overseas, US tariff policies and inflation data affect the market. The equity market pricing returns to fundamentals, with short - term performance expectations and medium - term domestic technology innovation as the main lines [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Post - quarter liquidity is generally optimistic, but central bank operations limit overnight rates. Policy emphasizes long - term bond yields, and the weak fundamental improvement expectation supports long - term bonds [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Steel exports face trade barriers, consumption improvement is less than expected, and raw material inventory pressure is large, leading to steel prices under pressure [3][4] Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options, and exit the long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio opportunistically [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Domestic**: From January to February, industrial enterprise profits were structurally stable, and PMI data was positive. Capital market systems for securities issuance and refinancing were optimized, and long - term institutional funds were promoted [1] - **Overseas**: US auto tariff policies and high inflation data increased market concerns about stagflation, and the uncertainty of tariffs and interest rate cuts affected the equity market [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2506 and TL2506 [2] - **Core Logic**: - **Funds**: Post - quarter liquidity was optimistic, but central bank net withdrawals limited overnight rate decline. Long - term funds' interest rates were relatively stable [2] - **Policy**: The central bank's Q1 monetary policy meeting emphasized long - term bond yields to prevent systemic risks [2] - **Fundamentals**: Economic data in the first two months was mediocre, with weak external demand, inflation, and financial data, hindering the improvement expectation [2] Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel) - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 inter - period positive spread strategy [3] - **Core Logic**: - **Exports**: Steel exports faced trade barriers such as anti - dumping duties from Vietnam and South Korea [3] - **Consumption**: Steel consumption improvement was less than expected, with poor construction funds and weak rebar consumption [3] - **Raw Materials**: Iron ore and coal - coke inventories had pressure, which might increase steel supply and put pressure on costs [3][4]