Core Viewpoint - The Chinese lithium battery industry chain experienced an unexpected growth in the first half of 2025, with an overall growth rate exceeding 40% and a significant increase in battery shipments and storage segments [1][7]. Industry Growth - In the first half of 2025, the total shipment of lithium batteries reached 750-760 GWh, with a year-on-year growth rate of 60%-65%. The storage segment saw a remarkable quarter-on-quarter increase of over 80% and a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 110% [1][7]. - The demand for upstream materials has diversified, with shipments of lithium iron phosphate materials increasing by nearly 70% year-on-year, and key components such as anodes, separators, and electrolytes also showing strong growth [2][7]. Material Trends - The industry is shifting from traditional high-cost performance competition to a high-performance differentiation path, leading to a new ecosystem where various materials flourish [3][7]. - In the materials sector, the shipment of cathode materials reached 205-215 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 50%-55%. Lithium iron phosphate materials led the growth with a year-on-year increase of 65%-70% [7]. - The gross profit margins in the materials industry are showing signs of recovery, although some segments are experiencing differentiation in profitability [7]. Market Dynamics - The market concentration is on the rise, with top-tier companies gradually restoring their market power and profitability. A new round of capacity expansion for lithium iron phosphate and anode materials is expected [8]. - The price of lithium salts is projected to remain in the range of 60,000-80,000 yuan, with limited potential for further decline or increase [9]. Technological Innovations - New materials such as CVD silicon-carbon are being commercialized, with significant applications in digital lithium batteries and high-performance requirements [9][30]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards larger and more energy-efficient equipment, with advancements in various manufacturing processes [9][31]. Global Competition - The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the delay of the new battery law in the U.S. have complex implications for the global competitiveness of Chinese companies [10]. - China has established a leading position in green low-carbon technologies, including photovoltaic, wind power, electric vehicles, and fuel cells, showcasing strong market share [26][27].

2025 年 7 月 9 日 "反内卷"与新一轮供给侧改革解读 | 王笑 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 Wangxiao@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 毛磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com | | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722shaowanyi@gtht.com | | 张航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu@gtht.com | | 张驰 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com | | 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 gaolinlin@gtht.com | | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 近期市场热议的新一轮"供给侧改革"，在内容上，主要以"反内卷" ...

湖南省自然资源厅7月8日披露，湖南省地质院下属的湖南省矿产资源调查所在临武县鸡脚山矿区通天庙 矿段探获超大型蚀变花岗岩型锂矿床，共提交锂矿石量4.9亿吨，氧化锂资源量131万吨。同时，伴生 铷、钨、锡、铌、钽等多种战略矿产，均达中型以上规模。 据悉，大中矿业原本从事铁矿石采选、铁精粉和球团的生产和销售业务。不过，近年来，该公司跨行涉 足锂电新能源产业，湖南、四川等地布局锂矿产业，并相继取得重要突破。 据勘探单位湖南省矿产资源调查所介绍，作为"有色金属之乡"，湖南积极响应国家锂资源保障战略，湖 南省矿产资源调查所连同湖南大中赫锂矿有限责任公司，自2022年起在鸡脚山矿区全面开展锂矿靶区优 选工作，累计完成钻探9万多米。 年报显示，2024年，湖南锂矿项目取得了自然资源部的储量评审备案，鸡脚山锂矿首采区通天庙矿段查 明矿石量4.9亿吨，平均品位0.268%，氧化锂矿物量131.35万吨，折算约324.43万吨碳酸锂当量，同时伴 生钨、锡、铌、钽、铷等有价金属，跻身全国锂矿企业前列。四川加达锂矿项目已圆满完成首采区探矿 工作，正在加紧推进储量评审流程和其他探转采手续。 据悉，湖南省矿产资源调查所2022年对鸡脚山矿 ...

Group 1 - The stock of Jinbo Co., Ltd. (688598) has a comprehensive score of 54.84, indicating a strong performance [1] - The main cost analysis shows that the current main cost is 25.15 yuan, with a 5-day main cost of 25.10 yuan, a 20-day main cost of 24.83 yuan, and a 60-day main cost of 24.22 yuan [1] - There have been no instances of the stock hitting the upper limit in the past year, and it has also not hit the lower limit [1] Group 2 - The short-term pressure level is at 25.62 yuan, while the short-term support level is at 24.63 yuan [2] - The mid-term pressure level is also at 25.62 yuan, with a mid-term support level of 22.62 yuan [2] - As of July 9, 2025, the net outflow of main funds is 10.91 million yuan, accounting for -11% of the total transaction amount [2] Group 3 - The stock has seen a net outflow of 3.35 million yuan from large orders and 7.56 million yuan from big orders, while retail investors have seen a net inflow of 53,600 yuan [2] - Related industry sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, solid-state batteries, lithium batteries, and new materials have experienced slight declines of -0.14%, -0.94%, -0.60%, and -0.86% respectively [2]

国家发改委能源研究所副所长、研究员李忠表示，中国制造业规模居世界首位，但在全球绿色发展大势 下面临日益严峻的转型压力。加快建设零碳园区，推动绿色能源更有效匹配制造业升级发展需要，既有 利于促进新能源高水平开发和消纳利用，还有利于提升产业绿色竞争力，增强应对国际各类"绿色壁 垒"的底气和能力。 中新社北京7月9日电 (记者 王梦瑶)为破解当前绿色转型难题，中国三部门近日发布《关于开展零碳园 区建设的通知》(下称《通知》)，推进开展零碳园区建设。 零碳园区是指通过规划、设计、技术、管理等方式，使园区内生产生活活动产生的二氧化碳排放降 至"近零"水平，并具备进一步达到"净零"条件的园区。 国家发改委有关负责人介绍，当前，中国已进入实现碳达峰目标、加紧经济社会发展全面绿色转型的关 键期，面临着新能源消纳压力增大、高耗能行业深度降碳困难、低碳零碳负碳技术推广应用受限等挑 战，亟待通过政策创新、技术创新、模式创新实现"破局"。 新能源装机大规模增长背景下，消纳问题成为关键。据国家发改委数据，截至今年5月底，中国风电、 光伏发电装机规模分别达到5.7亿、10.8亿千瓦，占全部装机比重达到45.7%，已经超过了火电装机的比 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June after four consecutive months of decline, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high, indicating improvements in supply-demand structures in certain industries [2][3] - Industrial producer prices (PPI) continued to face downward pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting weak domestic demand and excess supply in the market [1][4] Group 2 - The decrease in CPI was less severe than seasonal trends, with food prices dropping by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices saw a slight increase due to rising international oil prices [3][4] - Certain consumer goods, such as gold and platinum jewelry, experienced significant price increases of 39.2% and 15.9% year-on-year, respectively, driven by changes in international commodity prices [2][4] - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies is expected to support price stability and recovery in various sectors, including automotive and household appliances [1][5] Group 3 - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, with pressures from domestic demand weakness and external factors such as tariffs and slowing foreign demand [4][5] - Some industries, particularly high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors, showed signs of price stabilization and recovery, indicating potential growth opportunities [5] - The overall economic environment remains complex, but macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating consumption are anticipated to gradually restore domestic demand [5]

研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 64,400.00 | +520.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -93,307.00 | -23240.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 326,895.00 | -11139.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 540.00 | -820.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 12,655.00 | -2900.00↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 63,300.00 | +400.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 61,700.00 | +400.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -1,100.00 | -120.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the lithium market is not experiencing severe oversupply as suggested by various domestic institutions, while the copper market is facing a gradual supply shortage. The analysis indicates that the inventory levels and consumption rates for both metals do not support the claims of significant oversupply in lithium [1][24]. Lithium Market Analysis - In 2024, the global consumption of lithium batteries is projected to be 1545 GWh, requiring approximately 105,000 tons of lithium carbonate. Considering a production yield of 90% and additional factors, the actual consumption is estimated at 114,130 tons [2]. - The total lithium carbonate consumption, including traditional industry usage, is expected to reach 128,000 tons, while the total supply is projected at 136,700 tons, resulting in a surplus of 8,700 tons, which equates to an oversupply ratio of 6.36% [3][4]. Copper Market Analysis - The consumption of cathode copper in 2024 is estimated at 2,733,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.92%. The projected surplus for copper is approximately 46,900 tons, leading to an oversupply ratio of 1.72% [4][5]. Inventory Situation - The article details the inventory levels across different stages of the mining and processing supply chain for both lithium and copper. For copper, the total inventory is around 720,000 to 750,000 tons, which translates to approximately 25.33 days of consumption [9][10]. - In contrast, lithium inventory is estimated at 70,000 to 80,000 tons, corresponding to about 19.14 days of consumption, indicating a tighter supply compared to copper [10]. Smelting and Processing Inventory - In the smelting stage, lithium carbonate inventory is reported at 59,032 tons, equating to 12 days of consumption, while copper smelting inventory stands at approximately 95,700 tons, also representing about 12.76 days of consumption [12][13]. - The processing stage shows lithium inventory at 40,635 tons, which is about 8.3 days of consumption, while copper processing inventory is estimated at 120,000 to 150,000 tons, translating to 18 days of consumption [16][17]. Trade and Other Inventories - Lithium trade and battery inventories are around 37,170 tons, corresponding to 7.6 days of consumption, while copper trade inventories are estimated at 60,000 tons, equating to 8 days of consumption [19][20]. - The article notes a significant decline in lithium warehouse receipts, dropping from approximately 40,000 tons to 15,555 tons, a decrease of 61%, indicating tightening supply conditions [21]. Conclusion - The analysis concludes that lithium inventory levels are consistently lower than those of copper across various stages, challenging the narrative of severe oversupply in the lithium market. The article criticizes the methodology used by institutions to assess inventory levels and suggests that a more nuanced understanding of supply and demand dynamics is necessary [24][25]. - The article also highlights that while lithium experienced a surplus of 5-6% last year, copper had a surplus of only 1-2%, indicating a more favorable outlook for copper moving forward [26][27].

东兴证券指出，2025年一季度产业链终端需求仍维持较高增长态势，电池等环节在盈利向上同时收入端 亦显现回暖，锂电板块整体景气度有所回升，同时固态电池等产业链新技术自2024年下半年出现多次催 化推动行情逐步产生升力，2025—2026年伴随着新技术商业化进程的持续推动，板块有望迎来利润端的 修复与估值的提升，当前时点板块业绩稳健且兼具弹性，具备一定的配置价值。2025年下半年板块格局 趋稳有望迎来基本面重回上升的机遇，同时固态电池等新技术商业化进程的提速以及低空、机器人等新 应用领域增量需求有望形成持续催化。 国盛证券指出，当前产业对需求端中长期增长维持乐观态度，消耗前期现金储备以待行业好转；同时低 成本盐湖及中资一体化企业入场后，供给端抗价格波动能力增强，"囚徒困境"下行业拐点或有后移。但 若锂价维持低位中枢，可期待供给侧加速出清，权益端或有提前反应。资源低成本保供+非锂业务多元 化经营是当前行业稀缺竞争优势，具备前述特征的企业可凭借优质资源+冶炼一体化生产构筑成本缓冲 垫，非锂业务平滑业绩并支撑企业估值，企业有望平稳度过行业低谷，待格局向好后赚取行业出清收 益。推荐标的：中矿资源（002738）。相关标的 ...

Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Insights - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, better than the market expectation of 0% and the previous value of -0.1%[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in the previous month, indicating continued improvement in core inflation[2][4] - Food and energy price declines have narrowed, contributing to the positive CPI performance[3][4] Group 2: PPI and Industry Analysis - The PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year, worse than the market expectation of -3.2% and the previous value of -3.3%[2][9] - PPI has remained at -0.4% month-on-month for four consecutive months, reflecting weakened prices in domestic energy and raw materials[2][9] - The construction industry faced price declines due to high temperatures and abundant supply, with black metal and non-metallic mineral prices dropping by 1.8% and 1.4% respectively[10] Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is deemed necessary to boost PPI and stabilize industry prices, as current low PPI levels are attributed to oversupply and external uncertainties[11][12] - Recent actions in industries like photovoltaic and cement indicate a shift towards price recovery, with some sectors showing signs of improvement[11][12] - Continued implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to support consumer price recovery, particularly in housing rentals and service demand[13]