关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 对等关税落地已有数月，但美国通胀表现却持续弱于预期，与联储6月FOMC例会释放的 "鹰派"信息形成 反差。为何关税未能推升通胀、下半年美国通胀会否"卷土重来"？ 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美债拍卖强于预期，5月美国零售弱于预期 发达市场多数下跌，美元指数小幅反弹。 当周，标普500下跌0.2%，日经225上涨1.5%；10Y美债实际收 益率下行至2.1%；美元指数上涨0.6%至98.76，人民币兑美元持平前值；WTI原油上涨1.2%至73.8美元/ 桶，COMEX黄金下跌2.0%至3363.2美元/盎司。 美国财政部公布4月国际资本流动报告。 4月海外持有美国国债规模下降360亿美元至9.01万亿美元，其中 海外官方下降40亿美元，海外私人机构下降320亿美元。日本4月持有美债环比增长40亿美元，为连续第 四个月增加；英国环比增长284亿美元，为美债第二大持有国。 美国5月零售弱于市场预期，日央行放缓缩表。 5月美国零售销售弱于市场预期，环比-0.9%，市场预 期-0.6%，但零售控制组表现仍不弱。美国5月新屋开工环比-9 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recent financial policies introduced by the central bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aimed at enhancing the financial market and supporting technology-driven enterprises [1][9]. - The first major point is the internationalization of the RMB, with the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and bilateral currency swap agreements with over 30 countries [2]. - The second point focuses on the offshore market, highlighting reforms in offshore trade finance and the development of offshore bonds to attract offshore RMB back to the domestic market [4][5]. - The third point discusses the promotion of RMB futures trading in international markets, indicating a strategic move to enhance Shanghai's financial influence compared to Hong Kong [6][7][8]. Group 2 - The CSRC's announcement of the establishment of a new board for technology innovation, allowing companies to list even if they are not profitable, reflects a significant shift in policy to support tech startups [10][11]. - The fifth set of listing standards allows companies with a market value of over 4 billion and revenue of over 300 million to go public, indicating a more lenient approach to tech company listings [14][15]. - The article suggests that the integration of finance and technology is crucial for future investment opportunities, as seen in the U.S. tech market, which has significantly contributed to economic growth [21][22]. Group 3 - Despite recent downturns in the tech sector, the article argues that there is still substantial long-term potential for domestic tech stocks, especially when compared to U.S. tech giants [24][26]. - The current market conditions indicate a slow upward trend since the low point in September 2022, with fluctuations between 3100 and 3400 points in recent months [30][31]. - The recommended investment strategy is to prioritize stable assets like savings while cautiously investing a small portion in stocks and funds to preserve capital and prepare for future market opportunities [33][34][36].

Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, remaining negative for three consecutive months[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.3% year-on-year, marking the lowest since August 2023, with a decline of 0.6 percentage points[6] - Core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%, indicating slight improvement in internal growth momentum despite weak demand[6] Trade and Export Data - In May, exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from April, while imports fell by 3.4%, a drop of 3.1 percentage points[6] - The trade surplus reached $103.22 billion, an increase of $6.98 billion from April[6] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 34.5%, worsening by 13.5 percentage points[22] Financial Data - New RMB loans in May totaled 620 billion yuan, a decrease of 330 billion yuan year-on-year[24] - Social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, up by 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bonds contributing significantly[24] - M1 growth was 2.3%, while M2 growth was 7.9%, indicating a mixed performance in monetary aggregates[32] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3362.1082, while the CSI 300 and Shenzhen Component Index were at 3843.0912 and 10051.9655, respectively[2] - The average daily trading volume increased to 1.3717 trillion yuan, up by 162.8 billion yuan from the previous week[50] - The financial sector showed strong performance, rising by 0.76%, while consumer sectors declined by 1.08%[50] Policy Outlook - The central bank's net withdrawal of 727 billion yuan in the week indicates a tightening of liquidity, with market rates slightly rising[7] - Future monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a focus on supporting economic recovery amid ongoing uncertainties[39] - The upcoming tax period may cause temporary disruptions in the funding environment, necessitating close monitoring of central bank operations[39]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown a strong performance recently, with various fixed-income products experiencing growth in returns, particularly those with embedded options [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Performance - In the past month, the bond market experienced fluctuations, with rates generally declining. Various stable products saw an increase in net value, especially option-embedded fixed income products, followed by medium- and long-term bond funds [3][9]. - As of June 18, the monthly returns for different products were as follows: option-embedded bond funds at 0.54% (previously 0.62%), medium-term bond funds at 0.31% (previously 0.13%), short-term bond funds at 0.18% (previously 0.19%), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit index funds at 0.15% (previously 0.18%), and cash management products at 0.11% (unchanged) [3][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market showed a pattern of weakness followed by strength, influenced by market sentiment and liquidity conditions. The tightening of liquidity in late May, combined with the U.S.-China trade meeting in early June, initially suppressed bond market performance. However, after the month transitioned, the central bank's supportive stance on liquidity led to a recovery [11][12]. - The one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate fell to approximately 1.65%, a slight decrease from the previous month, indicating a shift towards a more favorable liquidity environment [12][15]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the bond market is expected to maintain a low-interest, low-volatility trend, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%, centered around 1.7% [31][34]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to outperform interest rate bonds, with credit spreads likely to remain relatively low, minimizing the risk of significant widening [34]. Asset Management Industry Trends - The scale of wealth management products increased to 31.3 trillion yuan by the end of May, reflecting a 1.6% month-on-month growth. This growth is attributed to the decline in bank deposit rates, which has made wealth management products more attractive [36]. - On May 23, the National Financial Regulatory Administration released a draft for asset management product information disclosure, allowing for more flexible performance benchmark disclosures, which may influence investor behavior in the long term [36]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, maintaining cash-like products and considering stable low-volatility wealth management or short-term bond funds is advisable [39]. - For conservative investors, holding pure bond products with a potential extension of duration is recommended, especially as the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7%-1.8% [40]. - For more advanced conservative investors, continuing to hold fixed-income plus products is suggested, with a focus on incorporating convertible bonds and equity assets into the strategy [41].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 国债期货周报 期债震荡走强，长短分化明显 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管： 1、6月18日，2025年陆家嘴论坛开幕式上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布八项重磅金融开放举措，包括 设立银行间市场交易报告库、同证监会研究推进人民币外汇期货交易等。2、6月18日，中国证监会发布公告称，经商中 国人民银行、国家外汇局，将从2025年10月9日起允许合格境外投资者参与场内ETF期权交易，交易目的限于套期保值。 3.金融监管总局会同上海市人民政府联合印发《关于支持上海国际金融中心建设行动方案》。 基本面：1、国内:1）5月经济数据偏弱，工增小幅回落，社零超预期回升，固投规模持续收敛，失业率环比改善；2） 出口前置的拉动作用持续弱化，5月出口同比增长4.8%，较前值回落3.3个百分点；3）5月金融数据小幅超预期，财政持 续发力，政府债有力支撑社融，但企业信贷需求走弱，经济内生动能仍待提振。 海外： ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" in May 2023 is facilitating the transformation of private enterprises in Ningbo through capital market engagement, enhancing their innovation, industrial upgrades, and global expansion efforts [1] Group 1: Capital Market Support - Ningbo's local securities firms are building a comprehensive service system to assist private enterprises in accessing capital markets, with 19 projects completed since 2020, raising a total of 14.362 billion yuan [2] - Fujia Co., Ltd. has transformed from a single ODM manufacturer to a global enterprise with an annual output value of nearly 3 billion yuan, supported by its "one body, two wings" strategic layout focusing on clean small appliances, energy storage, and robotics [2] - Fujia's revenue before going public was approximately 1 billion yuan, with over 90% of sales coming from its largest customer [2] Group 2: Financial Stability and Governance - By the end of 2024, Fujia's four fundraising projects will be completed, with surplus funds of 85.2974 million yuan permanently added to its working capital, providing solid financial support for sustainable development [3] - The listing process has led to improved management focus on performance enhancement and shareholder value maximization, resulting in better corporate governance and transparency [3] Group 3: Technological Advancement - The capital market acts as a catalyst for technological iteration, as demonstrated by Deyue Co., Ltd., which recognized the need to expand production capacity in response to the booming photovoltaic industry [4] - Deyue's fundraising project, initiated in 2022, raised 1.992 billion yuan for inverter production line construction and working capital, with the funds fully in place by June 2024 [4] Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's recent guidelines aim to enhance the role of capital markets in mergers and acquisitions, with several Ningbo-based companies actively engaging in this trend [5] - Ningbo Jingda's acquisition of Wuxi Weiyan for 360 million yuan exemplifies innovative use of merger tools, combining share issuance and cash payments to optimize cash flow and maintain control [6] - The acquisition project is seen as a positive exploration of how state-owned enterprises can empower listed companies through capital operations, enhancing financing efficiency and supporting core business development [7] Group 5: Future Directions - The path for capital market empowerment of private enterprises is becoming clearer, with suggestions for dual empowerment through "capital + technology" and the establishment of an overseas investment policy information hub for private enterprises [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial policy measures announced at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum signify China's commitment to deepen financial reform and enhance high-level openness, providing strong policy guidance for local financial systems, particularly for regions like Sichuan that are undergoing a critical transformation phase [1][2]. Policy Analysis - The eight financial opening measures reflect a clear signal of China's intention to maintain high-level openness and improve the modern financial system amidst global economic adjustments, focusing on stabilizing market expectations, deepening institutional reforms, and sustaining growth momentum [2]. - Among the eight measures, five are related to foreign finance, while three focus on domestic aspects, indicating a balanced approach to both internal and external financial development [2]. Key Directions - The measures emphasize three key areas: enhancing financial infrastructure for better resource allocation, facilitating cross-border capital flow through innovations like digital RMB and free trade accounts, and enriching risk management tools to improve market stability and service capabilities [3]. - The shift from "tool-based opening" to "systematic opening" is evident, indicating a long-term focus on institutional modernization and functional restructuring [3]. Opportunities for Sichuan - Sichuan, as a major western economic province, needs precise financial support and institutional supply to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries and promote the specialization of small and medium-sized tech enterprises [4]. - The implementation of structural monetary policy tools and risk-sharing mechanisms for tech innovation can help establish a "Western Financial Innovation Corridor," enhancing financing accessibility for tech enterprises [4]. Recommendations for Sichuan - The establishment of a digital RMB international operation system and cross-border payment mechanisms will support Sichuan's economic interactions with the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle and RCEP countries, enhancing local industries' efficiency in global value chains [5]. - Strengthening financial infrastructure, such as interbank transaction reporting and personal credit systems, is crucial for improving financial resource allocation and credit transparency in Sichuan [5]. - Innovations in offshore trade finance and offshore bonds can provide new opportunities for Sichuan as a hub for the Belt and Road Initiative, enhancing cross-border financing capabilities and attracting international capital [5].

Group 1: Financial Policy and Global Engagement - The forum emphasized the importance of financial support for macroeconomic growth, focusing on global engagement and technological transformation[5] - The central bank's discussions highlighted the need to consider geopolitical risks and the dynamics of international monetary systems in domestic financial policies[5] - New measures to enhance foreign investment and international trade settlement were proposed, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center[5] Group 2: Support for Technological Innovation - The introduction of a growth tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the restart of the fifth set of standards for unprofitable companies were key policies aimed at supporting tech enterprises[5] - The report suggests that more high-quality tech companies are expected to choose to list on the mainland Sci-Tech Innovation Board, enhancing the quality of A-shares[5] - Policies are being designed to balance investor interests with the financing needs of tech firms, indicating a more inclusive financial support system[5] Group 3: Risk Considerations - The report warns of potential risks from fluctuating tariffs and trade policies, particularly those influenced by U.S. political changes[5]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum emphasizes the importance of financial openness and cooperation in the context of global economic changes, focusing on high-quality development and the restructuring of the international monetary system [2][3]. Group 1: Global Financial Governance - The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, discussed four key areas for reforming global financial governance and announced eight financial policy measures aimed at addressing the instability of the current dollar-dominated international monetary system [2]. - Proposed directions for reform include reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and promoting a competitive environment among a few strong sovereign currencies, with the RMB recognized as the third-largest payment currency globally [2]. - Emphasis on diversifying the cross-border payment system and enhancing interoperability among payment systems, alongside the accelerated application of emerging technologies in cross-border payments [2]. Group 2: Financial Openness - The Director of the Financial Regulatory Bureau, Li Yunzhe, highlighted the vast potential for high-level financial openness in China, particularly in consumer finance, technology finance, green finance, pension finance, and wealth management [3]. - The government plans to promote high-level financial openness through institutional reforms, optimizing the business environment, and strengthening the financial safety net [3][4]. Group 3: Capital Market Reforms - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, outlined five new measures for capital market reform aimed at enhancing the market's role in supporting technological innovation and the real economy [5]. - Key measures include deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, enhancing the synergy between equity and debt markets, and fostering long-term capital [5][6]. - The focus on creating a more open and inclusive capital market ecosystem, including optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and expanding the range of products available for foreign investment [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The forum's positive policy direction is expected to enhance the resilience of the A-share market and improve the quality of listed companies, making A-shares more attractive to investors [6]. - Key investment areas identified include artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on fundamental analysis, valuation, and market sentiment [7].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 203.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 19, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was accepted [1] - On the same day, 119.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 84.2 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding environment appears slightly tighter, with the central bank shifting to net injections; the overnight pledged repo rate has slightly increased to around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate rose by nearly 2 basis points [3] - The latest overnight financing guarantee rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.31% [5] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is approximately 1.64%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a 0.16% increase for the 30-year main contract, while the 10-year main contract remained unchanged; the 5-year and 2-year main contracts saw slight declines of 0.02% and 0.01%, respectively [11] Group 5: Bond Issuance - Poly Development has received approval to register a 5 billion yuan short-term financing bond [16] - Guotai Junan has been granted approval to issue 15 billion yuan in corporate bonds for technological innovation [16] - Lanzhou Bank has been approved to issue up to 5 billion yuan in perpetual capital bonds [16] - The Export-Import Bank of China issued 10 billion yuan in bonds to support Shanghai's foreign trade and development [16]