大家好，我是小汉。 谁还记得，美国上一次靠抢资源就能让全世界买单是什么时候？ 2026年1月底，特朗普政府用一场突袭行动拿下委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，随即宣布接管该国石油出口。 几天后，白宫放话：欢迎中国继续买油，但价格得按美国定的来，每桶从30美元涨到45美元，交易必须 走美方账户，合同得用美国法律。 结果呢？中方直接一纸禁令：所有委内瑞拉原油，暂停进口，不准靠岸。 这记回击干脆利落，没吵没闹，却让特朗普精心设计的"高价转卖"剧本，连第一幕都没演完就卡了壳。 美国想当"石油房东"，但没人签租约 事情的转折点发生在1月27日前后，多家国际媒体披露，中国主要石油企业已内部通知交易员：停止一 切与委内瑞拉原油相关的采购操作。 这不是试探，也不是观望，而是彻底切断流，船不接、钱不付、合同不签。 为什么反应这么快？因为美国的动作太出格。 在控制马杜罗后，美方迅速指定托克和维多两家大宗商品巨头代理销售委内瑞拉石油，并由美国财政部 直接监管资金流向。 这已经不是"制裁"或"出口管制"的范畴，而是赤裸裸的资源接管。 美国把委内瑞拉的国家资产当成战利品，再包装成"合规商品"对外出售。 中国作为过去多年委内瑞拉最大买家，自然成了首要 ...

Group 1 - The large selling pressure from major funds has been alleviated, leading to a market recovery in February [3] - The A-share market continues its recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 4100 points and showing upward momentum [3] - The significant reduction in selling pressure is attributed to national-level measures addressing the selling from reduced holdings, indicating a potential end to large-scale sell-offs [3] Group 2 - The trading volume of the CSI 300 ETF has dropped to around 2%, suggesting that major funds are no longer selling [3] - The sustained low turnover rate of the CSI 300 ETF reflects a stable and sustainable market condition [3] - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday and the National People's Congress are expected to limit the likelihood of new large-scale sell-offs [3]

Macro Economic Background - The domestic economy shows structural recovery, with GDP growth of 5.0% in 2025, meeting the target set during the "Two Sessions" [12] - Industrial production remains resilient, with industrial added value in December 2025 rising to 5.2% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors outperforming with growth rates of 9.4% and 9.2% respectively [12] - Investment growth has slowed, with fixed asset investment down 3.8% year-on-year, while consumption shows mixed performance, with retail sales growth dropping to 0.9% in December 2025 [12][14] - Exports have rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% in December 2025, particularly in high-tech products like automobiles and integrated circuits, which grew by 71.6% and 47.8% respectively [14][15] A-Share Market - In January, the A-share market experienced a "New Year Rally," leading to a spring market trend, with a significant increase in trading volume, averaging over 30 trillion yuan [9][12] - The outlook for February suggests a stable pre-holiday market, with a high likelihood of a "spring market" rally post-holiday, focusing on sectors with clear policy guidance and high earnings certainty [5][9] Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market in January saw a continuation of monetary easing, with bond yields declining [5][9] - The outlook for February indicates a focus on structural opportunities within a fluctuating market environment [5][9] Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to show a fluctuating pattern, while the Chinese yuan is anticipated to remain strong in the short term due to a lack of significant rebound in the dollar and strong potential settlement forces [5][9] Overseas Markets - The US bond market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by economic fundamentals and changes in interest rate expectations [5][9] - The US stock market is projected to experience fluctuations, supported by resilient economic data, but scrutiny on technology companies' earnings may increase during the earnings season [5][9] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain strong, buoyed by domestic spring market dynamics and regulatory easing on IPOs [5][9] Commodities - Gold prices are facing adjustment pressure after a rapid increase, with expectations of wide fluctuations [5][9] - Oil prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties and increased energy consumption during winter [5][9]

软实力信号如何转化为油价溢价？邓正红理论强调，"政治信号—市场预期—金融定价"是现代石油价值实现的核心路径，此次美伊互动正是这一机制的典型 体现。特朗普宣布与印度达成贸易协议，表面是经贸安排，实则具有深远地缘意图。印度承诺停止购买俄油，转而采购美国及委内瑞拉原油；这不仅削弱俄 罗斯能源收入，更强化美国对全球石油流向的"规则引导力"；同时，印度转向中东以外的供应源，间接提升对波斯湾原油的战略依赖，反向推高该区域地缘 溢价。 美国在中东增兵、护航商船，并非单纯军事行为，而是"软实力信号"的投射。通过展示"保护航道安全"的能力，美国强化其作为"全球能源秩序维护者"的角 色；此举赢得部分产油国与消费国的信任，巩固其在能源治理体系中的话语权；但同时也激化与伊朗的对抗，形成"越维稳、越动荡"的悖论式循环。 邓正红软实力表示，美伊局势不确定性萦绕，地缘扰动不断、短期利多因素犹存，石油软实力向上盘整，2月3日（周二）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商 品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油3月期货结算价每桶涨1.07元至63.21美元，涨幅1.72%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油4月期货结算价每桶涨1.03美元至67.33 美元，涨幅1.5 ...

他指出，过去3至4个月大市由银行、保险及石油股带动上升，这可能因为投资者已重仓科技股有关，惟 因银行股的价值已重估很多，建议投资者可以减持，转而购入科技股。至于石油股，他建议可以选择个 别吸纳，因为个别中资油企有增加派息的可能。 对于内地会否向互联网服务公司上调增值税，他表示难以估计，但中国科技股较外国科技股估值有所折 让，已反映政策上的风险。对于内地电动车行业，他认为仍在整固的过程中，有出海概念的车企，其利 润率会较内销的车企为高，估计几间龙头车企还要扩大市场占有率，因此该行对电动车行业的看法较审 慎。 2月4日，摩根大通私人银行股票策略部亚洲主管冯兆邦表示，恒指有机会从近期高位约27000点回落5至 8%，投资者可以考虑在25000至26000点左右趁低吸纳。 港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 风险提示：此文章不构成投资建议。股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

编辑：何颖曦 盘面上看，传媒、半导体板块走低；煤炭板块爆发，掀涨停潮；地产、石油、钢铁、电力、银行、 券商、保险、汽车等板块拉升，光伏、氢能源概念等活跃。 中国经济周刊-经济网讯 截至收盘，上证指数报4102.20点，涨幅0.85%，成交额10635.45亿元；深 证成指报14156.27点，涨幅0.21%，成交额14174.26亿元；创业板指报3311.52点，跌幅0.40%，成交额 6755.89亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current oil market is experiencing a significant divide, with a consensus of extreme pessimism despite underlying fundamental shifts that may present investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a substantial bearish sentiment in the market due to oversupply, driven by weak demand from China, the lifting of OPEC production cuts, and strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries, resulting in an increase of over 400 million barrels in oil inventories last year [1] - Market consensus has drastically lowered oil price forecasts for 2025, with some analysts predicting Brent crude could drop to $61 per barrel by 2026 [1] - Bernstein suggests that the current oil price range of $60-65 per barrel is unsustainable for the industry, indicating a potential cyclical bottom as capital begins to flee [1] Group 2: Capital Returns and Industry Sustainability - The oil industry is currently facing a capital return rate (ROACE) that is alarmingly low, with an average breakeven oil price of $50-55 per barrel [2] - If oil prices remain at $60 per barrel, the capital return rate could fall to the low to mid-single digits, compared to historical averages of around 10% [2] - The current low return rates signal capital outflow from the industry, which historically indicates a prime entry point for investors [2] Group 3: Long-term Price Expectations - The long-term oil price expectations are below the marginal production cost, with a five-year forward price of Brent crude at $66 per barrel, which is insufficient for the industry [5] - Bernstein estimates the long-term marginal production cost at $71 per barrel, suggesting that when prices fall below this level, the likelihood of achieving positive returns on oil stocks increases [5] Group 4: Demand Shifts - While Chinese oil demand is slowing, Bernstein argues that the story of global oil demand is not over, as countries in the "Global South" (e.g., Southeast Asia, India, Middle East, and Africa) with a combined population of 5 billion have much lower per capita oil consumption compared to the West [8][9] - The desire for improved living standards in these regions is expected to drive energy consumption and become a new engine for oil demand growth over the next decade [9] Group 5: Supply Constraints and Geopolitical Risks - The current idle capacity in the oil market is insufficient to buffer against unforeseen disruptions, with effective idle capacity at 3.4%, which is only slightly above historical averages [11] - Geopolitical risks are at a multi-decade high, with the current geopolitical risk index surpassing levels seen since 9/11, increasing the probability of supply disruptions [12][13] - A weaker U.S. dollar is seen as a positive factor for oil prices, as it makes oil cheaper for non-dollar-denominated markets, potentially stimulating demand [14] Group 6: Investment Trends and Future Outlook - The reinvestment rate in the oil sector has plummeted from nearly 100% to about 50%, leading to a decline in the lifespan of proven reserves from 15 years to 11 years over the past 25 years [17] - The energy sector has underperformed over the past 11 years, with only three years of outperformance against the S&P 500, indicating a potential contrarian investment opportunity as interest in the sector wanes [18] - The U.S. shale oil boom is coming to an end, with production growth showing signs of plateauing, particularly in key basins like the Permian [20]

特朗普与莫迪2025年2月在华盛顿会谈（REUTERS） 印度此前增加了价格因欧美制裁而下跌的俄罗斯产原油的采购量，为持续进攻乌克兰的俄罗斯提供了战 争经费的支持。试图调停俄乌战争的特朗普对印度征收了额外关税，以迫使对方停止购买俄罗斯原油。 据芬兰智库"能源与清洁空气研究中心"统计，从2022年12月至2025年4月俄罗斯原油的出口目的地来 看，中国占47％，印度占38％。 美印已就印度停止购买俄罗斯产原油达成协议。作为回报，美国准备撤销作为对俄制裁一环而对印度启 动的额外关税。美国开始将重点放在与盟友构建合作关系上，而不是利用关税制造对立…… 美国总统特朗普2月2日表示，美印已就印度停止购买俄罗斯产原油达成协议。据悉印度将改为从美国和 委内瑞拉采购原油。作为回报，美国准备撤销作为对俄制裁一环而对印度启动的额外关税。 特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，2日早间与印度总理莫迪"讨论了包括贸易以及终结俄乌战争在内的诸多事 项"。特朗普写道："他已同意停止购买俄罗斯产原油，并从美国大幅增加采购。也有可能从委内瑞拉 （购买）"。 特朗普2日宣布，将对印度实施的对等关税税率从25％下调至18％。据美国《华盛顿邮报》报道，美方 ...

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - On February 3, the US government is preparing to issue a general license allowing companies to extract oil in Venezuela, a step to attract US - related companies and revive the country's energy industry. Another license allowing companies to buy and sell Venezuelan crude was issued last week [1]. - On February 3, the US Trade Representative said India agreed to cut tariffs on US exports from 13.5% to zero for industrial products, and they also reached a consensus on reducing India's technical non - tariff trade barriers. The US has been monitoring India's reduction of Russian oil purchases [1]. - In recent months, India has cut Russian oil imports. At least three refiners are seeking government clarification, two of which have suspended purchases. India's oil minister expects imports from Russia to continue to decline, and refiners want to increase supplies from Canada and the US [1]. - On February 3, crude oil prices rose slightly in Asian morning trading due to the US - India trade agreement. Trump said the US would cut tariffs on India to 18%, and India would stop buying Russian oil and increase purchases from the US and Venezuela. The US would cancel the 25% extra tariff on India's Russian oil imports, which may trigger more active purchasing by Indian refiners [1]. Group 2: Investment Logic - The situation in Iran has taken a turn with an Iranian drone shot down by the US military. The US - India agreement will lead to a 1 - million - barrel - per - day reduction in Russia oil consumption capacity and an increase in compliant oil purchases, supporting oil prices. However, the pace of India's procurement shift is unknown, and in the short term, the market surplus is concentrated in sanctioned oil, while the supply - demand of compliant oil will tighten [2]. Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term, with geopolitical events having a large impact. Control risks, and consider a medium - term short - position allocation [3]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者何一华 李未来 北京报道 国内成品油价格开启2026年第二轮上涨。 2月3日下午，国家发改委发布公告称，近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价 格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、 柴油价格每吨分别上涨205元和195元。 本次涨价政策落实之后，用油成本有所上涨。卓创资讯测算，油箱容量在50升的小型私家车加满一箱油 将比之前多花8元左右。以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8升的小型私家车为例，到下次调价窗口也就是 2月24日24点之前，消费者用油成本将增加18元。 与此同时，物流行业，以月跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38L的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启 前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加452元左右。 隆众资讯成品油分析师徐雯雯告诉记者，本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格6.6—6.8元/升，92号汽 油零售限价在6.9—7.0元/升。 地缘冲突扰动 近期两周左右时间，原油价格持续走高，以美原油为例，最低处于55美元/桶，最高涨到66美元/桶，上 涨幅度超过10美元/桶；布伦特原油期货价格更 ...