Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, both soybeans and peanuts show a slightly strong and volatile trend, but in the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand pattern is likely to be loose [1][2][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Soybean View - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2507 contract yesterday was 4179.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A07 + 121, down 30 (-32.14%) from the previous day. The prices in the Northeast market remained stable on July 16 [1] - Market Situation: The current domestic soybeans are in the transition period between old and new crops. Tight short - term supply due to the digestion of old stocks is offset by the expected abundant supply in the long - term from increased imports and good growth of new crops. The demand side has short - term support but also faces constraints [2] - **Strategy** - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut View - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8232.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan/ton (+0.49%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8720.00 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot basis was PK10 - 32.00, down 40.00 (-500.00%) from the previous day. Market quotes were generally stable, and the trading was in a stalemate [3] - Market Situation: Short - term supply is tight due to factors such as low cold - storage inventory liquidity and uneven regional supply. However, the expected supply will increase with the stable growth of the new - season planting area and good growth [3][4] - **Strategy** - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - The protein meal market showed a strong and volatile trend at night. The July USDA report was overall neutral to bearish, and the high soybean good rate in the US continued to pressure the futures price. The domestic supply surplus situation will still limit the upside, and it is expected that the Dalian protein meal will maintain a volatile trend [3]. - The night - trading of soybean and rapeseed oil was weak, while palm oil rose slightly. The MPOB report was overall neutral to bearish, but high - frequency data showed an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and a surge in Indian imports. It is expected that palm oil prices will still be supported, and the overall fundamentals of the oil market have limited changes, so it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - The previous closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8042, 8722, and 9470 respectively, with price changes of 30, 14, and 66, and percentage changes of 0.37%, 0.16%, and - 3.15% respectively. The price differences and ratios of various varieties also showed certain changes [2]. International Futures Market - The previous closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4109 (Ringgit/ton), 1020 (cents/bu), 55 (cents/lb), and 283 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of 0, 17, 0, and 3, and percentage changes of 0.00%, 1.72%, 0.57%, and 1.14% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - The spot prices of domestic oils and meals showed different trends. For example, the spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.24% and 0.37% respectively, while the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil decreased by 0.34%. The spot prices of some protein meals were stable [2]. Import and Profit - The import profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 414, - 243, - 69, 137, 572, and 419 respectively, showing certain improvements compared to the previous values [2]. Industry Information - From July 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the production increased by 17.06%. India plans to increase domestic crude palm oil production from 350,000 tons to 2.3 million tons by 2029 and expand the planting area from 600,000 hectares to 1 million hectares next year [3]. US Soybean Data from USDA Report - The USDA lowered the 2025/26 US soybean planting area and harvested area to 83.4 million acres and 82.5 million acres respectively, while keeping the yield per unit at 52.5 bu/acre. The production forecast was lowered by 5 million bu to 4.335 billion bu. The US soybean crushing volume in 2025/26 was increased by 50 million bu to 2.54 billion bu, and the export volume was slightly lowered by 70 million bu to 1.745 billion bu. The ending inventory was increased by 15 million bu to 310 million bu [3]. Indian Vegetable Oil Import Data - In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will also exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **Foreign Market Quotes**: On July 15 - 16, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.06% from 16.56 to 16.55 dollars, and the price of US cotton decreased by 0.01% from 68.57 to 68.56 dollars [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From July 15 to 16, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.17% from 6060.0 to 6050.0, the price of sugar in Kunming remained unchanged at 5905.0, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.20% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 15300.0 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: From July 15 to 16, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 10.00% from 50.0 to 55.0, SR05 - 09 increased by 4.61% from - 217.0 to - 227.0, SR09 - 01 increased by 2.99% from 167.0 to 172.0, CF01 - 05 decreased by 14.29% from 35.0 to 30.0, CF05 - 09 increased by 138.46% from - 65.0 to - 155.0, and CF09 - 01 increased by 316.67% from 30.0 to 125.0 [3]. - **Basis**: From July 15 to 16, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by 0.37% from 270.0 to 269.0, the basis of sugar 05 increased by 1.25% from 320.0 to 324.0, the basis of sugar 09 decreased by 5.83% from 103.0 to 97.0, the basis of cotton 01 decreased by 5.06% from 1482.0 to 1407.0, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by 5.27% from 1517.0 to 1437.0, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by 11.71% from 1452.0 to 1282.0 [3]. - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.75 from July 15 to 16, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1590.0 from July 15 to 16, 2025 [3]. Option Data - The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0744, with the futures underlying SR509 and a historical volatility of 7.29; the implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0751; the implied volatility of CF509C14000 is 0.1206, with the futures underlying CF509 and a historical volatility of 8.48; the implied volatility of CF509P14000 is 0.1118 [3]. Warehouse Receipt Data - From July 15 to 16, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.38% from 22602.0 to 22289.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.75% from 9716.0 to 9643.0 [3] Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a large - scale and reputable futures company in China. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [9]

2025年07月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地复产存疑，等待矛盾演化 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | 2 | | 豆粕：出口预期好转、美豆收涨，连粕反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：技术面偏强，反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：等待超预期信息指引 | 8 | | 棉花：期价创年内新高 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：旺季反弹预期兑现，淘汰情绪下降 | 11 | | 生猪：情绪转向 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 17 日 棕榈油：产地复产存疑，等待矛盾演化 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,722 | 0.16 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures is that the short - term and intraday trends of soymeal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, while the medium - term trends are all oscillating [5][8][9]. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference views are oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating [5]. - **Core Logic**: The positive export outlook of US soybeans boosts the rebound of US soybean futures prices, and strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. In the domestic market, the negative basis of soymeal continues to widen, and the short - term supply expectation of soymeal futures prices dominates the market again, with futures stronger than spot, maintaining an intraday oscillation and slightly stronger pattern [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference views are oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating [8]. - **Core Logic**: The lower - than - expected US soybean oil inventory supports US soybean oil futures prices, which continue to run in an oscillating and slightly stronger manner. The domestic soybean oil market is mainly driven by the cost support of raw soybeans and the linkage boost from the strengthening of US soybean oil futures prices, and is expected to continue the oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the short term [8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and reference views are oscillating and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is oscillating [9]. - **Core Logic**: The improving fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil boost palm oil futures prices, which have a continuous linkage effect on domestic palm oil futures prices. The domestic palm oil futures prices follow the fluctuations of the international palm oil market, and the low enthusiasm of funds restricts the rebound space, showing a short - term oscillating and slightly stronger trend [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Commodity Research Institute Agricultural Product Research Report - Meal Daily Report" [1][2] - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The US soybean new - crop balance sheet adjustment is overall bearish, with a slight increase in ending stocks. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets lack clear drivers, and the markets are mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. The rapeseed meal market has concerns about future supply, but there are also uncertainties [4][5][7] - The international soybean market has supply pressure, mainly from South America. The domestic soybean meal spot is relatively loose, and the rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening [5][6] - Macro - level information is unclear, and the short - term decline of the soybean market is limited. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal spreads are expected to widen, and the spreads between different contract months may face pressure [7] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a slight upward trend. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures generally declined slightly. The soybean meal inter - month spreads continued to decline, while the rapeseed meal spreads were relatively stable [4] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean new - crop balance sheet adjustment is bearish. As of July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 70%. The US soybean exports were lowered, but the crushing was raised, and the ending stocks slightly increased. The Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the recent selling has further slowed down. The Brazilian soybean crushing has decreased, and the Argentine domestic crushing may improve, but soybean exports may increase [5] Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market is relatively loose, with increasing oil - mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing inventory. The rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening, and although the supply is also uncertain, it is expected to be in a range - bound operation [6] Group 6: Macro - level Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market has concerns about future supply uncertainty. The international trade has many uncertainties, and the soybean market is not likely to decline significantly in the short term [7] Group 7: Logic Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures oscillate in a narrow range, supported by future supply uncertainty. The US soybean futures have limited decline and rebound space. The inter - month spreads may face pressure but have limited decline space. The rapeseed meal is affected by supply uncertainty, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen [7] Group 8: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [8] - Arbitrage: RM91 reverse arbitrage [8] - Options: Wait and see [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures closed higher on Tuesday but remained near a four - year low. Zheng sugar is under short - term pressure and fluctuating [3]. - **Cotton**: The current low inventory of domestic cotton still strongly supports cotton prices. However, due to weak demand in the off - season and inventory pressure on finished products, the upside of cotton prices is limited. In the short term, Zheng cotton may maintain a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of import quota policies and adjustments to the China - US trade agreement [16]. - **Red Dates**: The downstream market is in the off - season of consumption, with a relatively light trading atmosphere. The supply of old dates is sufficient. As the jujube fruit grows, the expected reduction in production in the production area may be revised. Red date prices may fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to subsequent temperature changes and the fruit - setting situation of new jujubes [22]. - **Apples**: Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales speed of apples is limited. In Shandong, the number of apple packages is limited due to the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the apple supply is concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared of inventory. For new - season apples, the opening prices of extremely early - maturing varieties such as Tengmu and Qinyang are the same as last year. Due to the small supply, the impact on the market is limited [26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Provided closing prices, daily and weekly price changes of various sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11, SB, W) and price spreads between different contracts (e.g., SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09) [4]. - **Sugar Basis**: Presented the basis of sugar in Nanning and Kunming for different contracts, along with daily and weekly changes [11]. - **Import Price Changes**: Showed the quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar, and the price differences between different domestic locations and imported sugar, with daily and weekly changes [14]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: Provided closing prices, daily price changes, and price change rates of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts (cotton 01 - 09, cotton yarn 01 - 09) [17]. - **Price Spreads**: Presented various price spreads of cotton and cotton yarn, including basis, inter - month spreads, and spreads between cotton and yarn, along with daily price changes [18]. Red Dates - **Futures Month Spreads**: Showed the month spreads of red date futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [23]. - **Price Trends**: Provided price trends of red dates in Xinjiang's main production areas and the wholesale prices of first - grade gray dates in main sales areas [25]. Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Provided closing prices, daily and weekly price change rates of apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.), and spot prices of different apple varieties in various regions, along with daily and weekly price change rates [27]. - **Inventory**: Showed the cold - storage inventory of apples nationwide, in Shaanxi, and in Shandong [31][32].

Core Insights - The article discusses the strong demand for soybean crushing and its impact on soybean prices, questioning whether the recent price rebound can be sustained [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The demand for soybean crushing remains robust, indicating a potential upward pressure on soybean prices [1] - Recent price movements suggest a rebound in soybean prices, but sustainability is uncertain [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The article highlights the fluctuations in soybean prices and the factors influencing these changes, particularly focusing on demand dynamics [1] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring market conditions to assess future price trends [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise, and the supply - demand situation of soybean meal is expected to improve after August, suggesting a long - position strategy for soybean meal futures [1][18]. - Palm oil may experience a short - term correction, but a long - position strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long term [1][18]. - New - crop corn is likely to face seasonal selling pressure, and a short - position strategy is advised [1][18]. - The upward momentum of cotton prices is limited, and short - position and arbitrage strategies are recommended [2][18]. - Short - to - medium - term: Long soybean meal 09 and rapeseed meal 09; short egg 09, corn 11, and cotton 01. Medium - to - long - term: Long soybean meal and palm oil on dips; short live hogs on rallies [3][87][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1上期策略回顾 - Corn: The price performance in the past two months was generally in line with expectations. After July, the price of corn futures accelerated its decline [13]. - Oils: The "YP09 spread narrowing" strategy performed well from mid - May to mid - July [14]. - Strength - weakness allocation strategy: In the one - month period until June 13, the multi - short allocation portfolio was profitable by 5.7% [15]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - Soybean meal: Bullish in 3 - 6 months. Consider long positions in M2509 and M2601 on dips, with stop - loss levels at 2850 and 2950 respectively [18]. - Palm oil: Bearish in 1 month. Consider short positions in the 09 contract, with a profit - taking level at 8500 and a stop - loss level at 8800 [18]. - Corn: Bearish in 3 - 5 months. Consider short positions in the 11 contract on rallies, with a stop - loss above 2350 and a profit - taking level around 2100 [18]. - Cotton: Bearish in 3 - 5 months. Consider short positions in the January contract around 14000 yuan/ton, with a profit - taking level at 13000 - 13200 and a stop - loss level at 14300 - 14500 [18]. 3.2.2套利策略 - P2509 - P2601: Consider a reverse arbitrage strategy. Set the profit - taking level at - 50 to - 100 and the stop - loss level at 100 [20]. - CF2511 - CF2601: Consider a reverse arbitrage strategy. Set the profit - taking level at - 300 (for non - delivery funds) and the stop - loss level at 50 [20]. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - Soybean meal: The cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is unlikely to drop significantly, and the supply - demand situation of soybean meal will improve. Key indicators include Brazilian export CNF premiums and China's monthly soybean imports [21]. - Oils: Palm oil may face a short - term correction as the growth in production picks up in July. However, its downward space is limited due to its cost - effectiveness. Key indicators include China's palm oil inventory and international soybean - palm oil spreads [32]. - Corn: The supply - demand gap in the 25/26 season is likely to shrink. If the old - crop gap is revised downwards, the new - crop price may decline earlier and more significantly. Key indicators include northern port corn inventories and deep - processing enterprise corn inventory - consumption ratios [39]. - Cotton: The upward momentum of cotton prices is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and high - cost resource release. The January contract faces heavy hedging pressure. Key indicators include domestic cotton commercial inventories and Zhengzhou cotton 9 - month contract positions [51]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: Bullish in the long term, but the upward drive is uncertain in the short term. It is advisable to go long on dips [68][83]. - Palm oil: May face a short - term correction, but long - position strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long term [68]. - Corn: Bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the expected reduction in the supply - demand gap [68][70]. - Cotton: The upward space is limited, and short - position and arbitrage strategies are recommended [71][86]. - Sugar: The international market is in a bearish cycle, and the domestic market is expected to be weak in the third quarter and may have a phased rebound in the fourth quarter [70]. - Livestock and poultry: The supply of live hogs and eggs is expected to be loose in the second half of the year, and short - position strategies are recommended in the medium - to - long term [70]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: In the past month, the agricultural futures sector had a net inflow of funds, with palm oil and soybean oil leading in terms of capital inflow, while corn and rapeseed oil had the largest net outflows [74]. - **各品种基差及基差率（2025年7月14日）**: The basis and basis rate of each agricultural product variety are provided, which can help investors understand the price relationship between futures and spot markets [78]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: Short - to - medium - term: Long soybean meal 09 and rapeseed meal 09; short egg 09, corn 11, and cotton 01. Medium - to - long - term: Long soybean meal and palm oil on dips; short live hogs on rallies [87][88].

处于低位，对玉米采购需求减弱。同时，小麦饲用替代优势明显，饲料企业逐渐加大小麦采购替代玉米， 玉米系产业日报 2025-07-16 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) | 2293 59 1054601 | -2 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 吨) 0 玉米淀粉月间价差(9-11):(日,元/吨) 18363 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 2639 45 267829 | -2 5 5198 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -20610 | -7222 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | -14076 | -2841 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) | 185421 | 手) -390 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 15794 | -26 ...