Report Overview - Report Name: Polysilicon Industry Daily Report 2025-05-13 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply has significantly declined due to over half of the enterprises in the industry conducting equipment maintenance, especially in Xinjiang and Mongolia [3]. - The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment among wafer - pulling enterprises and low procurement willingness. Downstream enterprises expect the silicon material price to fall in the long term and plan to replenish inventory after the price stabilizes [3]. - The polysilicon industry still faces high inventory pressure, mainly concentrated in polysilicon manufacturers. Weak downstream procurement has slowed down inventory digestion, and some manufacturers face difficulties in shipping [3]. - Technically, it has broken through the pressure of the 60 - day moving average, and there may be high pressure around the integer mark of 40,000. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 38,270 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 52,252 lots, down 15,252 lots [3]. - The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 1,730 yuan/ton, down 575 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 30,040 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 40,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 35 yuan/kg, unchanged [3]. - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.34 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars/kg; the basis of polysilicon is 2,050 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan/ton [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,230 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3]. - The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons [3]. - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, up 46,400 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 596,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 2,906 tons, down 222 tons [3]. - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78.444 million kilowatts, up 11.443 million kilowatts [3]. - The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, up 24,038,530 pieces; the monthly import volume is 9,846,120 pieces, down 2,122,260 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/piece, up 0.01 US dollars/piece [3]. - The comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 22.91, down 0.62 [3] 6. Industry News - As of May 13, the mainstream market price of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon is 32 yuan/kg, the mainstream market price of N - type dense - type polysilicon is 35.5 yuan/kg, the mainstream market price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon is 39 yuan/kg, and the mainstream market price of N - type granular silicon is 37 yuan/kg, all of which are temporarily stable [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a round - table meeting for foreign - trade enterprises to relieve difficulties and provide more support [3] 7. Key Focus - There is no news today [3]

多晶硅行业基本面有望好转，多个合约逼近涨停 金十期货5月13日讯，13日，多晶硅期货合约PS2508-2511在开盘小幅下跌快速震荡上行，一度逼近涨 停。多晶硅期货在经历了前期的大幅下跌后，企业开始自救，多晶硅行业基本面有望好转，期货价格快 速上行。一方面，远月合约的绝对价格在上涨前低至35000元/吨以下，较现货价格有较大贴水；另一方 面，多晶硅行业基本面有供应端收缩的预期，预计影响时间在三季度之后，因此远月合约涨幅较大。逐 步进入5月中旬，6月即将迎来首次交割，但仓单依旧较少，且在价格较低的情况下，有20手仓单注销， 情况逐步有利于多头。预计期货价格主要波动区间"36000-42000元/吨"，多单可以持有。 （广发期货） ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price is weakly stable, and the futures market rebounds after a decline, mainly influenced by macro - sentiment. The supply side has cost pressure and some production cuts, but raw material prices are falling. The demand side is weak, and the cost support is further weakened. The total industry inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are relatively high [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the futures market continues to repair upward, and the spot market price stabilizes with some increases. Under the background of industry self - restricted production, polysilicon production remains low, inventory is falling, and there is a possibility of further production cuts. The demand side also shows signs of weakness, and the number of warehouse receipts is low [3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On May 12, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded after a decline. The main contract 2506 opened at 8275 yuan/ton and closed at 8320 yuan/ton, a change of 0.24% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2505 had a position of 171,625 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 12 was 67,097 lots, a decrease of 241 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon is weakly stable. The prices of various grades of silicon have decreased. The silicon coal prices in major production areas such as Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi have dropped, weakening the cost support [1]. - **Consumption Side**: The organic silicon DMC quotation is 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The recent trading volume is average, and manufacturers have high inventory pressure, so they lower the price to accept orders [2]. - **Strategy**: For industrial silicon, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Data**: On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures continued to repair upward, opening at 38,100 yuan/ton and closing at 38,450 yuan/ton, a 2.49% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 69,417 lots, and the trading volume was 322,808 lots [3]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable. The prices of various types of polysilicon remain unchanged. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers has decreased, and the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers has also declined [5]. - **Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components**: The prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are provided, and most of them remain stable [5][6]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, under industry self - restriction, polysilicon production remains low, and inventory is falling. On the demand side, the battery production rate and total output of Chinese enterprises in April and May are given, and some photovoltaic component enterprises have plans to further reduce production [7]. - **Strategy**: For polysilicon, the short - term strategy for the 2506 contract is to be cautiously bullish [8].

Report Information - Date: May 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The polysilicon 06 contract weakened first and then strengthened during the session. The closing price of PS2506 was 38,450 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.49%. The trading volume was 322,800 lots, and the open interest was 69,417 lots, with a net increase of 2,162 lots [4] - Outlook: The fundamental changes are limited. The main logic of the market rebound comes from the shortage of deliverable goods and the release of overseas macro risks. The monthly supply of silicon materials remains at 90,000 - 100,000 tons. The downstream photovoltaic terminal "rush to install" is gradually coming to an end, and the demand has decreased significantly month-on-month. Polysilicon (280,000 tons), silicon wafers, and battery cells have been accumulating inventory for 5 consecutive weeks. The supply-demand balance requires a larger reduction in production from the plants. In addition, there is an expected increase in production during the wet season. The strength of the 06 contract lies in the market's consistent judgment on the shortage of deliverable goods rather than the fundamentals. At the same time, with the release of overseas tariff risks, the preference of long funds is relatively high. The daily trend is expected to continue to be mainly strong and volatile [4] Market News - As of May 13, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 20 lots, a decrease of 20 lots from the previous trading day [5] - Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and Trina Solar released their Q1 2025 performance reports and held performance briefings. During the reporting period, the four companies reported losses of 1.436 billion yuan, 1.39 billion yuan, 1.638 billion yuan, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively, totaling 5.784 billion yuan. Among them, Longi Green Energy reduced its losses year-on-year, while the other three companies decreased by 218.2%, 239.35%, and 355.88% year-on-year respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk sentiment has continued to improve due to the progress in Sino-US trade negotiations and the overall easing trend of geopolitical conflicts. However, the substantial impact on the US economy from tariff negotiations requires continuous observation. In the short term, there may be some adjustment space for the premium of precious metals previously brought by safe-haven demand. [2][4] - The Sino-US trade talks have achieved substantial progress, but the copper market still faces challenges such as a decline in processing fees and weakening downstream demand. Copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. [6][9][10] - Alumina prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. Considering the expected oversupply situation, shorting after a price rebound is recommended. [16][18][19] - The Sino-US trade talks' progress may affect aluminum consumption. Although the aluminum inventory is expected to decline in the short term, the overall annual oversupply pressure remains. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. [21][23][24] - Zinc prices may face downward pressure due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season, the inflow of imported refined zinc, and the gradual accumulation of social inventory. [27][29][30] - Lead prices are expected to remain volatile under the background of the continuous expansion of secondary lead production cuts and the off-season of battery replacement. [33] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro situation. [36][39][40] - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, following the trends of nickel prices and the macro sentiment. [42][43] - Industrial silicon supply is expected to increase while demand decreases in May, leading to an oversupply situation. Shorting after a price rebound is recommended. [48][49] - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise in the short term due to the strong demand from some crystal pulling factories and the relatively small number of delivery products. A long position in the PS2506 contract and a positive spread strategy of going long on PS2506 and short on PS2507 are recommended. [52][53] - Lithium carbonate prices may rebound due to the easing of Sino-US tariffs, but the overall oversupply situation remains. Holding short positions is recommended. [58][59] - Tin prices are mainly affected by macro factors. In the short term, they are expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the supply situation of tin mines. [64][65] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold initially declined below $3,280 and then rebounded, closing up 0.63% at $3,326.46 per ounce on Friday. However, it gapped down this morning due to the substantial progress in Sino-US economic and trade talks over the weekend. Spot silver closed up 0.84% at $32.72 per ounce on Friday. Affected by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.33% at 790.74 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.88% at 8,221 yuan per kilogram. [2] - The US dollar index gave back part of the previous day's gains, closing down 0.3% at 100.339. [2] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury note fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 4.378%. [2] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar traded sideways, finally closing up 0.07% at 7.2399. [2] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks in Switzerland have achieved substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and will release a joint statement on May 12. Trump announced that he will release important content and plans to sign an executive order to reduce drug prices by 30%-80%. [2] - Federal Reserve officials have different views on interest rate policies. The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in June with a probability of 82.7% and cut the interest rate by 25 basis points with a probability of 17.3%. In July, the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 40.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 50.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 8.7%. [2] - Geopolitical conflicts: There were sporadic conflicts between India and Pakistan, but the situation has eased. Putin proposed to restart direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on the 15th, and Zelensky said he would wait for Putin in Turkey. The Ukrainian foreign minister said that Ukraine is ready to unconditionally cease fire for at least 30 days. [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [4] Copper Market Review - The price of LME copper closed at $9,439 on Friday, down $35.5 or 0.37%. [6] - LME inventory increased by 2,500 tons to 191,700 tons on Friday, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,533 short tons to 160,250 short tons. [6] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva achieved substantial progress, and a joint statement will be released on May 12. [6] - In April 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the average from January to April decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year. [6][8] - In April 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 438,000 tons, the same as in April 2024. From January to April, the cumulative import was 1.742 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% compared with the same period in 2024. [8] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Due to the substantial progress in Sino-US negotiations, copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [10] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 14 yuan per ton to 2,810 yuan per ton. [12] - The spot prices of alumina in various regions increased to varying degrees. [12] Important Information - As of Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and an operating rate of 78.2%. In April 2025, the weighted average full cost of alumina was 3,211 yuan per ton, a decrease of 81 yuan per ton month-on-month and an increase of 462 yuan per ton year-on-year. The alumina industry had an average loss of 311 yuan per ton, and the loss increased by 266 yuan per ton month-on-month. [13][14] - The third 1-million-ton production line of a large alumina enterprise in Shandong was put into operation in mid-April, and it is expected to produce finished products by the end of the month. The second 1.6-million-ton production line of a large alumina plant in Hebei will produce finished products in late May, and the third 1.6-million-ton production line will be put into operation in early June. [14] - After the May Day holiday, the bauxite market experienced a significant price adjustment. The price of Guinea's mainstream 45/3 ore was reduced to $75 per dry ton (CIF), and the price of bulk ore dropped to $76 per dry ton. [14] - Guinea's government has initiated procedures to revoke the mining license of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in the country. [14] - Guinea's transitional president signed two executive orders on May 9, terminating the mining concessions of two foreign mining companies in the country. [15] - On May 9, 2,000 tons of spot alumina were traded in Shandong at an ex-factory price of 2,900 yuan per ton. [15] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, alumina prices are expected to fluctuate. If the oversupply situation remains unchanged after a price rebound, shorting is recommended. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [19] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract increased by 70 yuan per ton to 19,655 yuan per ton. [21] - On May 9, the spot prices of A00 aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and Central China were 19,610 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan), 19,550 yuan per ton (down 30 yuan), and 19,600 yuan per ton (up 10 yuan), respectively. [21] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva achieved substantial progress, and a joint statement will be released on May 12. [21] - In April 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month. The PPI decreased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. [22] - On May 9, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major markets decreased by 15,000 tons compared with the previous trading day. [22] - In April 2025, China exported 518,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products. From January to April, the cumulative export was 1.883 million tons, a decrease of 5.7% compared with the same period last year. [22] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: With the overall marginal easing of tariff expectations, attention should be paid to the results of the Sino-US talks. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. - Arbitrage: Considering the strong current situation and weak future expectations, a positive spread strategy of going long on the 06 contract and short on the 09 contract is recommended. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [24] Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market rose 0.66% to $2,655.5 per ton on Friday night. The Shanghai zinc 2506 contract rose 0.04% to 22,260 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai zinc index decreased by 1,863 lots to 228,300 lots. [26] - In the Shanghai spot market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,825 and 22,955 yuan per ton. Due to the arrival of long-term contracts and the inflow of imported zinc, the spot premium was lowered, but the downstream remained on the sidelines, and the spot trading volume did not improve. [26] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [26] - In April 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, and the PPI's year-on-year decline widened to 2.7%. [26] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Affected by the macro situation, zinc prices may rebound. However, under the bearish fundamental situation, shorting on rallies is still recommended. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [30] Lead Market Review - The LME lead market rose 1.69% to $1,985.5 per ton on Friday night. The Shanghai lead 2506 contract rose 0.54% to 16,880 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai lead index decreased by 1,601 lots to 69,600 lots. [32] - In the spot market, the price of SMM1 lead remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The offers of refineries in Henan, Hunan, and Guangdong were at a discount to the SMM1 lead price. As the lead price stabilized, holders increased the discount to sell, and downstream enterprises purchased on dips as needed. The regional trading volume in the spot market improved relatively. [32] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [33] - In April 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, and the PPI's year-on-year decline widened to 2.7%. [33] - An intermediate and large-scale secondary lead refinery in East China stopped production due to raw material shortages and loss pressure, affecting the output by about 200 tons per day. A small secondary lead refinery in East China postponed its restart plan to mid-to-late May due to the poor market trend. [33] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Lead prices are expected to remain volatile. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. [33] Nickel Market Review - On Friday, the LME nickel price rose by $275 to $15,850 per ton, the LME nickel inventory decreased by 642 tons to 197,670 tons, and the LME nickel 0-3 spread was -$183.02 per ton. The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2506 rose by 2,540 yuan to 126,200 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 536 lots. [35] - The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan to 2,300 yuan per ton, the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 150 yuan per ton, and the premium of electrolytic nickel increased by 150 yuan to 150 yuan per ton. [35] Important Information - Talon Metals discovered a high-grade nickel sample with a nickel content of 12.65% near Tamarack, Minnesota, along with copper, gold, and platinum group metals, marking a significant breakthrough in its exploration for supplying battery-grade nickel to Tesla. [35] - PT QMB New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. restarted, with a current capacity utilization rate of about 70% - 80%. [35] - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [36] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range. Attention should be paid to changes in the macro sentiment. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Consider a double-selling strategy within the range. [40] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2506 contract rose by 55 yuan to 12,775 yuan per ton, and the open interest of the index decreased by 1,721 lots. [42] - In the spot market, the price of cold-rolled stainless steel was between 12,650 and 12,900 yuan per ton, and the price of hot-rolled stainless steel was between 12,500 and 12,600 yuan per ton. [42] Important Information - In April 2025, the total export of stainless steel sheets and finished products from Taiwan, China was 74,500 tons, a decrease of 12.1% month-on-month. [42] - On May 8, Mexico launched an anti-dumping sunset review investigation on stainless steel sinks (weighing no more than 8 kg)原产于 China. [42] - In May, the planned production volume of domestic stainless steel crude steel was 3.619 million tons, a decrease of 78,900 tons or 2.13% month-on-month and an increase of 74,700 tons or 2.11% year-on-year. [42] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short-term trading should be cautious and wait for opportunities. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. [43] Industrial Silicon Market Review - Last week, the main contract of the industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly, closing at 8,205 yuan per ton. [46] - The spot prices of some grades of industrial silicon continued to decline. Due to weak downstream demand and only rigid procurement, manufacturers were forced to lower the spot prices after the decline in the futures prices. [46] Important Information - Sino-US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. [47] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short after a price rebound, and exit the short position after large-scale production cuts by manufacturers. - Options: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Consider a reverse spread strategy for Si2511 and Si2512. [49] Polysilicon Market Review - Last

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The industrial silicon price is expected to remain weak in the short - term, ranging from 8,000 to 10,000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level due to delivery factors and production cut news. In the short - term, the price fluctuation will intensify, and if the contradiction between "high positions and low warehouse receipts" is not alleviated, a long position can be considered for the 06 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 10,050 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.32% to 8,205 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - In April, due to production cuts by some silicon enterprises in Xinjiang, the overall industrial silicon output decreased to about 300,000 tons. In May, affected by the resumption of production in the southwest production area during the flat - water period and the ramping up of some new production capacities, the output is expected to increase steadily, but the increase is limited [1]. Demand - Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The domestic monomer enterprises' operating rates increase and decrease, and it is expected to drop below 55% in May. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon Price - N - type dense material remained flat at 38 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feedstock price remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg; the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 2.38% to 37,830 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. The output is expected to be within 100,000 tons [1]. Demand - The strong installation period is basically over, the photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells and components have continued to decline, the market demand has slowed down, and some component delivery prices are close to new lows, with weak market transactions [1]. Other Information - On May 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 596,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social general warehouse was 133,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 463,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - On May 6, the Natural Resources Bureau of Wuhai City released the design plan for the first - phase of Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology Co., Ltd.'s industrial silicon project. The project investment is 1.495 billion yuan, and the construction scale is a 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project [1].

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon industry is facing significant cyclical challenges due to oversupply, leading to declining prices and increasing inventory levels, prompting companies to reduce production rates to manage costs and inventory [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The polysilicon market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping; for instance, the average transaction price for N-type polysilicon fell to 39,200 yuan/ton, down 5% from 41,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2025 [4][5]. - As of early May, polysilicon factory inventory reached approximately 257,000 tons, a high level compared to previous years [4]. - The main futures contract for polysilicon hit a historical low of 34,375 yuan/ton on May 8, indicating a downward trend in market prices [4]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Companies are actively seeking to reduce inventory by lowering production rates, with many polysilicon manufacturers in Xinjiang operating at below 50% capacity [5][6]. - Despite the challenges, companies maintain a positive outlook, believing that current difficulties are temporary and that the industry will eventually recover [6][10]. - Some companies are implementing measures such as rotating staff and maintaining basic salaries to manage costs while reducing production [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The polysilicon supply is projected to exceed demand by approximately 26,550 tons in 2025, with supply expected to be around 1,598,900 tons and demand at 1,333,400 tons [9]. - Xinjiang's electricity cost advantage, ranging from 0.22 to 0.38 yuan/kWh, is seen as a protective factor for local polysilicon companies against cost pressures [9]. - Companies believe that those who endure the current market conditions will benefit significantly when the market recovers [10]. Group 4: Role of Futures Market - The introduction of polysilicon futures has enhanced communication and collaboration between producers and traders, revitalizing the market [12][13]. - Many companies are now more open to working with traders, viewing them as a means to alleviate cash flow concerns and streamline sales processes [13]. - There is a growing interest among companies to establish themselves as delivery brands in the futures market, which could enhance their market opportunities and economic benefits [13][14].

2025年05月11日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 11 日 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 观点与策略 | 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 | 2 | | 工业硅：西南复产，基本面弱势 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注下周仓单故事 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷，偏弱震荡 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：基本面逻辑或将镍价震荡区间收敛，市场消息扰动盘面情绪。首先，印尼高品位镍矿偏 紧，溢价边际上行 1-2 美金至 26-27 美金/湿吨，同比增加 15-16 美金。同时考虑到补库需求的影响，精 炼镍过剩预期下的短期累库不及预期，库存边际小幅去化，再叠加矿端推升一体化火法成本，镍价下方或 仍有托底。其次，5 月 9 日市场有消 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅需求不见起色，关注多晶硅减产力度 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 月 | 年 | 5 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，北方和云南产能出现减产，但四川进入平水 期后部分硅厂逐步复产。需求端仍无起色，有机硅大厂检修、 多晶硅大厂延迟复产，对工业硅需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对 工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9500-10000 元/吨。后续关注供给端 边际变化。 ★投资建议 工业硅：工业硅盘面快速跌破我们此前测算的 9000 元/吨一 线，价格下跌或进一步带来供给端的边际变化。策略上，前期 空单可部分止盈，不建议左侧做多，建议关注出现明确的规模 性减产、丰水期西南复产不及预期、仓单明显流出等信号后， 再考虑右侧抄底。此外，关注大厂的现金流风险。 多晶硅：价格下跌后，关注供给端变化，以及 5-6 月份需求排 产是否有超预期的可能。现货博弈加剧，盘面额外关注仓单问 题。在仓单大规模生成之 ...

Report Investment Rating The report does not mention the investment rating for the polysilicon industry. Core Views - **Strategy**: For the 2506 contract, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish. When the market rebounds above 40,000 yuan/ton, producers can consider selling hedging at high prices. In the short term, conduct a positive spread arbitrage between the 06 and 07 contracts. If the warehouse receipt volume starts to increase rapidly, switch to a reverse spread arbitrage. There are no strategies for cross - variety and spot - futures operations. For options, sell near - month deep out - of - the - money put options and buy call options [6][7][69]. - **Industry Situation**: The polysilicon upstream and downstream industries have high concentration, with leading enterprises having a large share of production capacity. Most enterprises are currently in a state of losing cash costs, and several polysilicon listed companies reported losses in the first quarter. Some enterprises have shut down for a long time, and most have reduced production loads. The number of polysilicon types and grades is large, and it is subject to brand - based delivery. The standard delivery product on the market is n - type dense material, with relatively high delivery requirements and large discounts for alternative delivery products. The amount of warehouse receipts registered by manufacturers at the current market price is expected to be very small [9][70]. Summary by Directory 1. Polysilicon Production Overview - **Production Enterprises**: The polysilicon industry has high concentration, with the top four enterprises (Tongwei Co., Ltd., GCL Technology, Daqo New Energy, and Xinte Energy) having a combined market share of over 60%. Each of these enterprises has its own development strategy and production characteristics [14][15]. - **Capacity and Output**: By the end of 2024, the polysilicon production capacity reached about 2.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42%, but the capacity utilization rate was only about 30%. Leading enterprises are still expanding production capacity. Due to industry self - restraint on production, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is limited, and the output is expected to decline slightly. The industry has been in a de - stocking pattern since 2025, but the high total inventory has a large inhibitory effect on the spot market [18]. - **Downstream Enterprises**: The downstream of polysilicon is also highly concentrated. According to the 2024 production capacity statistics, the top 5 enterprises account for nearly 53% of the production capacity, and the top 2 account for 33% [23]. - **Cost**: The production cost of polysilicon mainly consists of raw material cost, electricity cost, labor cost, depreciation cost, and technological differences. The raw material, electricity, and depreciation costs account for about 80% of the total cost. Leading enterprises have different production costs due to differences in electricity cost ratios and technological routes [26]. 2. Polysilicon Classification - **Physical Form**: Polysilicon can be classified into block silicon and granular silicon. Block silicon has a stable quality and can be stored for a long time, while granular silicon can avoid the crushing step but is easily contaminated [28]. - **Purity**: It can be divided into metallurgical - grade polysilicon (MG - Si), solar - grade polysilicon (SOG - Si), and electronic - grade polysilicon (SEG - Si) in descending order of purity [33]. - **Downstream Doping and Conductivity Type**: Solar - grade polysilicon is mainly divided into N - type and P - type, depending on the type of doping impurities [34]. - **Surface State**: Block silicon can be further divided into dense material, cauliflower - like material, and coral - like material. Dense material is mainly used for pulling single - crystal silicon, while cauliflower - like and coral - like materials are mainly used for making poly - silicon wafers [35]. 3. Polysilicon Delivery Rules Interpretation - **Brand Delivery System**: Polysilicon futures implement a brand - based delivery system. The delivery products must be from registered brands approved by the exchange. Registered brand products can be warehoused without inspection if the owner can provide relevant quality certificates. There are 7 enterprises with 12 production plants in the first batch of registered brands [41][42]. - **Delivery Details**: The delivery area covers 8 provinces (autonomous regions), and there is no premium or discount between regions. The delivery unit is 30 tons per lot. The warehouse receipt has a 6 - month validity period, and products with a production date over 90 days cannot be registered as warehouse receipts. The delivery methods include one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and futures - to - cash transactions [49][50][53]. - **Delivery Requirements**: The benchmark delivery product is N - type block silicon, and the alternative is P - type block silicon with a discount of 12,000 yuan/ton. Strict quality indicators are specified, and packaging and storage requirements are also defined. There are also position - limit and risk - control measures [58][63][64]. 4. Polysilicon Delivery and Recent Market Analysis and Outlook - **Delivery Situation**: The current market price is expected to result in a very small amount of warehouse receipts. The recent market has seen continuous increases in positions and price declines, with low trading volume. The 2506 contract is expected to rise in the short term, and it is estimated that the market price needs to be above 39,000 yuan/ton for warehouse receipt registration to be cost - effective, and above 40,000 yuan/ton for producers to have a strong willingness to register [66][67]. 5. Summary - **Industry Status**: The polysilicon upstream and downstream industries are highly concentrated, and most enterprises are in a state of loss. There are many types and grades of polysilicon, and the delivery requirements are high. The amount of warehouse receipts registered at the current market price is expected to be small [70]. - **Strategy**: The same as the core strategy, including unilateral, cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies [69].