2026年港股和A股的布局策略怎么走？摩根大通，作为全球顶尖的投行，刚刚发布了最新的中国资产展望报告，发出了挺明确的信号：经济增长可能会慢一 些，但风险还是在可控范围内。沪深300指数将迎来第四波反弹潮，还有四个具有巨大潜力的主题值得重点留意。今天就带大家详细解析这份重量级的研 报，确保大家能理解明年的投资机遇在哪里！ 摩根大通判断，2026年中国经济将呈现"增长放缓但下行风险可控"的态势。这个"可控"并非空口白话，核心支撑来自三个关键维度： 政策支持的力度一直在加码，从之前稳定经济和股市的一连串措施来看，政策手段储备挺有底气，给市场搭了道稳妥的防护网。 新兴的生产力投入带来了明显推动，比如高端制造业和科技创新这些行业不断加码，正逐渐塑造出新的经济增长点。 这种反内卷的趋势下，出现了反弹式的增长，行业间的竞争格局也在重新调整，未来或许能挖掘出新的盈利空间。 经济基本面已有触底反弹的趋势，而摩根大通的中国宏观景气度指标（QMI）也成为一个关键的参考依据。这个指标被认为是"海外角度观察中国市场的晴 雨表"，涵盖了港股、中概股以及A股的核心企业。从数据上看，蓝色的QMI指数和黑色的MSCI中国指数的涨跌变化非常一致 ...

Group 1 - The core observation is that during the New Year holiday, there was a significant increase in customer traffic and test drive demand at various new energy vehicle (NEV) stores, including NIO, Tesla, and others, indicating strong consumer interest despite upcoming policy changes [1][2] - NIO's store in Shanghai reported test drives extending until 1-2 AM, reflecting high customer engagement [1] - The sales performance of new energy vehicle stores during the holiday period suggests that the impact of the new policies on market sales has been limited, as many new energy vehicles are priced above the thresholds for full subsidies [2] Group 2 - In 2026, two major policy changes will affect the NEV market: the vehicle purchase tax will shift from full exemption to a 5% tax rate, and the subsidy structure will change from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, although the maximum subsidy remains unchanged [1] - The new policies are expected to increase consumer costs for purchasing NEVs, but many automakers have implemented "bottom-line" measures to attract customers [2] - The current national subsidy policy allows for full rebates for vehicles priced above 166,700 yuan and full trade-in subsidies for those above 187,500 yuan, which aligns with the average prices of many new energy vehicles [2]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong's tourism and economic performance during the New Year holiday indicates a strong start for 2026, which is crucial for the province's role in national economic stability and growth [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance - During the 2026 New Year holiday, Guangdong received 17.875 million tourists, with a daily year-on-year growth of 34.8%, generating tourism revenue of 9.98 billion yuan, a daily year-on-year increase of 39.8% [2]. - In the first eleven months of 2025, Guangdong's industrial added value above designated size grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing increasing by 3.4% and automotive manufacturing by 9.9% [3]. - The province has established nine trillion-yuan industrial clusters, with the AI core industry accounting for about one-third of the national total, and the digital economy ranking first in the country [3]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - Guangdong's innovation capabilities are strong, with the "Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou" innovation cluster ranking first globally in the innovation index according to the World Intellectual Property Organization [4]. - The province is focusing on new mechanisms for technology innovation transformation, enhancing the matching of innovative product supply and market demand [4]. - The launch of the world's first self-navigating mobile aquaculture platform in Zhuhai showcases Guangdong's advancements in integrating AI and robotics into traditional industries [5]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Logistics - Baiyun Airport's third-phase cargo facilities will support the construction of a national logistics hub, while Huizhou Airport has opened its first all-cargo route to enhance logistics efficiency for high-value industries [5]. - In 2025, Guangdong's airports handled over 180 million passengers, ranking first among all provinces, and Guangzhou Metro's total passenger volume exceeded 14 million on December 31, 2025, setting a new record [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Guangdong is in a transitional phase, moving from old to new economic drivers, which presents both challenges and opportunities for various industries [6]. - The province aims to implement a new round of high-quality development actions for key industrial chains, focusing on revitalizing traditional industries and accelerating the cultivation of new industries [6].

"试驾排到凌晨一两点，"1月3日，上海五角场商圈蔚来门店销售向第一财经记者表示。在元旦假期的最 后一天，该蔚来门店依旧客流旺盛，试驾需求火爆。 特斯拉是一个特例，作为新能源主流车企，但却没为今年的购置税新政推出任何"兜底"政策。以车价 23.55万元的Model 3为例，购置税约1万元，这部分均需消费者承担。但是特斯拉门店销售向记者表 2026年，新能源汽车迎来了两大政策变动，一是新能源汽车车辆购置税优惠力度"退坡"，从全额免征调 整为减半征收（按5%税率）；二是汽车"两新"政策补贴方式出现了变化，将定额补贴调整为按车价比 例进行补贴，虽然补贴上限保持不变，但低价车型补贴力度实际上也在"退坡"。 在上述政策变动的背景下，多家新势力门店销售告诉记者，从元旦销售情况来看，新政对市场销售影响 有限。从"国补"政策来看，新能源车价达16.67万元以上，能够拿满报废更新补贴；新能源车价达18.75 万元，能够拿满置换更新补贴，而很多新势力平均售价在此之上，所以"国补"情况基本与2025年一致。 新能源汽车购置税"退坡"确实增加了消费者的购车成本，但很多车企出台了相应的"兜底"措施。 鸿蒙智行针对部分车型也推出了限时现金 ...

新浪科技讯 1月3日晚间消息，小米集团创始人、董事长、CEO雷军今日举行2026年第一场直播，雷军 表示，以往老觉得能把产品做好就行了。因为我是个工程师，我觉得好产品自己能说话。你拆开看一 看，你每个测试做一做，我原来以为就足以解决很多问题了，可是后来我发现了这个舆情，可能我没有 想那么简单。很多米粉朋友鼓励我们说，你们还是要回应，要及时辟谣，要及时解释。实话实说，过去 的大半年里面，扑面而来的各种质疑，使我们几个人都有点懵。 徐洁云提到，最近烟台警方也公布了一则信息，他们正在用了四个月的时间，打掉了一个专门炒作新能 源汽车负面信息的团伙。这个团伙不仅攻击小米，虽然我们了解可能攻击小米比较多，但其中除了小米 之外，也同样无差别的攻击其他的新能源品牌。烟台警方的一次就抓捕了12人，关停了他们操纵的八千 多个账号。 雷军表示，骂小米确实有流量，但是一定要客观，不要故意抹黑，故意断章取义，我觉得不要这样干， 这样干的是违法行为。我们非常关注真实用户的声音。只要大家说的对的，公允的，我们都会认真的去 倾听，认真的去改。 "我们不怕任何真实的用户对我们提各种各样的意见。如果这个错误或者这个不对，我们一定会去改。 但是这 ...

"试驾排到凌晨一两点，"1月3日，上海五角场商圈蔚来门店销售向第一财经记者表示。在元旦假期的最 后一天，该蔚来门店依旧客流旺盛，试驾需求火爆。 鸿蒙智行针对部分车型也推出了限时现金优惠，比如针对原价24.98万元的智界R7，推出了车价立减 5000元的元旦限时活动。 小米汽车销售称，受2026年新能源汽车购置税政策影响，车辆落地价确实有所上涨。小米汽车的主要应 对策略是推出更具吸引力的金融政策，特别是针对SUV车型的三年免息或五年低息方案。 据不完全统计，截至2025年12月底，提供购置税"兜底"政策的车企数量已超过20家，包括理想、蔚来、 鸿蒙智行、奇瑞、极氪、智己、长安等，几乎覆盖新能源汽车市场的主要玩家。 特斯拉是一个特例，作为新能源主流车企，但却没为今年的购置税新政推出任何"兜底"政策。以车价 23.55万元的Model 3为例，购置税约1万元，这部分均需消费者承担。但是特斯拉门店销售向记者表 示，这并没有改变其所在门店的火热势头，元旦假期期间，该门店与以前周末一样忙碌，客流量并没有 降低。 蔚来门店的火热情况并非孤例。元旦期间，记者走访了多家新势力门店，特斯拉、极氪、鸿蒙智行门店 客流量都保持在高位 ...

Core Insights - Tesla's vehicle deliveries in 2025 reached 1.636 million, a decline of 8.6% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive year of sales decline [1] - BYD surpassed Tesla with over 2.25 million electric vehicle sales in 2025, achieving a growth of nearly 28% [1] - The shift in the electric vehicle market indicates a transition from an "exploration phase" to a "survival of the fittest" phase [5] Group 1: Tesla's Performance - Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries were 418,000, a significant drop of 15.6% year-on-year, failing to meet analyst expectations [4] - Analysts previously predicted Tesla would sell 3 million vehicles by 2026, but current Wall Street expectations have been cut to 1.8 million [4] - Tesla's market share in China has fallen below 40% as competition intensifies [23] Group 2: BYD's Competitive Edge - BYD's cost advantages stem from its vertical integration, controlling 70% of core components, allowing it to offer vehicles 15%-20% cheaper than Tesla [13] - BYD's localized strategies have led to sales surpassing Tesla in 11 countries, with significant market penetration in Europe [15] - BYD's diverse product lineup caters to various market segments, with 28% of its sales coming from vehicles under 100,000 yuan and 35% from those priced between 200,000-300,000 yuan [17] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The electric vehicle market has evolved from a scenario where Tesla was the only choice to a competitive landscape with multiple viable options [10] - Consumers are now prioritizing features such as space, comfort, and local adaptability over brand loyalty to Tesla [27] - Tesla's challenges include a decline in registrations in Europe by 39% while BYD's grew by 240% in the same period [21] Group 4: Future Outlook - Tesla must redefine its market strategy, deciding whether to maintain its high-end positioning or engage more aggressively in the mass market [29] - The loss of the sales crown signifies a maturation of the electric vehicle market, with increased choices for consumers [31] - Tesla retains technological advantages but must adapt to a more competitive environment where it is no longer the sole innovator [20]

看人气，广东依旧是许多创业者的目的地之一。人力资源是生产要素之本，是经济力争上游的关键。一 系列交通和文旅数据足以证明广东的实力：2025年全年，广东全省机场全年吞吐量超过1.8亿人次，居 全国各省区市首位；广州地铁2025年12月31日总客运量突破1400万人次，刷新历史记录，是全国地铁单 日客流新高；2026年元旦假期，广东全省接待游客1787.5万，日均同比增长34.8%，实现旅游收入近百 亿元。春节期间广东的文旅供给还将"花样翻新"，成为进一步优化消费结构、提振内需的新引擎。 1月3日，广东省文化和旅游厅初步测算，2026年元旦假期，全省接待游客1787.5万，日均同比增长 34.8%，实现旅游收入99.8亿元，日均同比增长39.8%。全省4A级及以上景区接待游客556.1万人次，日 均同比增长15.3%。 元旦假期广东"人气旺"，为这座经济大省的全年稳增长奠定基础。2026年是"十五五"的开局之年，广东 作为经济大省，需挑起全国稳增长、扩内需的"大梁"。当前全球经济增长面临的不确定性不断增加，我 国要实现高质量发展取得显著成效、科技自立自强水平大幅提高等"十五五"时期发展目标，广东需坚持 开局就要冲 ...

Core Insights - Guangdong's tourism and cultural data indicate strong popularity, with 17.875 million visitors during the New Year holiday, a year-on-year increase of 34.8%, and tourism revenue reaching 9.98 billion yuan, up 39.8% year-on-year [2] - The province's economic performance in 2025 showed resilience, with industrial added value increasing by 3.2% year-on-year, and manufacturing growth at 3.4%, particularly in the automotive sector, which grew by 9.9% [3] - Guangdong has established nine trillion-yuan industrial clusters, with the AI core industry accounting for about one-third of the national total, and the digital economy leading the country [3] - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is recognized as a major international innovation center, with the "Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou" innovation cluster ranking first globally in innovation index [4] - Guangdong's airport throughput exceeded 180 million passengers in 2025, leading the nation, and the province is enhancing logistics efficiency through new cargo routes and airport facilities [5] Economic Performance - In 2025, Guangdong's industrial added value increased by 3.2%, with manufacturing and high-tech products like drones and industrial robots showing double-digit growth [3] - The province's modern industrial system is stable, with traditional and emerging industries developing in coordination, supporting steady economic growth [3] Innovation and Technology - Guangdong is fostering a robust innovation ecosystem, with strong capabilities and willingness to innovate, particularly in AI and robotics [4][6] - The province is actively exploring new mechanisms for technology innovation and market demand matching, enhancing the conversion of innovation results into practical applications [4] Tourism and Cultural Impact - The tourism sector is a significant contributor to Guangdong's economy, with substantial visitor numbers and revenue during peak holiday periods, indicating a strong consumer base [2][5] - The province's cultural offerings are expected to diversify further, enhancing consumption structure and boosting domestic demand [5] Future Outlook - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the need for Guangdong to maintain momentum in economic growth and innovation, with a focus on high-quality development and the cultivation of new industries [6] - The province faces challenges in transitioning from old to new economic drivers, but this period also presents opportunities for growth and innovation [6]

专题：雷军2026年首场直播，现场拆车 雷军表示，在这个组里面，YU7获得了五项第一，续航里程第一，综合电耗第一，充电效率第一，零百 加速第一，雪地从100公里刹到零的也是第一。所以我可以很自豪的说，我们的YU7和Model Y相比， 在这种工况的情况下，我们的续航更牛。尤其是我们的综合电耗低于特斯拉。（罗宁） 雷军表示，在这个组里面，YU7获得了五项第一，续航里程第一，综合电耗第一，充电效率第一，零百 加速第一，雪地从100公里刹到零的也是第一。所以我可以很自豪的说，我们的YU7和Model Y相比， 在这种工况的情况下，我们的续航更牛。尤其是我们的综合电耗低于特斯拉。（罗宁） 责任编辑：李铁民 责任编辑：李铁民 专题：雷军2026年首场直播，现场拆车 新浪科技讯 1月3日晚间消息，小米集团创始人、董事长、CEO雷军今日举行2026年第一场直播，雷军 表示，这段时间各个媒体都在举办一年一度的冬季测试，今年小米YU7的冬季表现的也非常出色，汽车 之家是在牙克石做的这个测试，当时的环境温度是零下25℃到零下10℃，YU7所在的这个组是叫进阶家 用5座纯电SUV组，就是跟Model Y在一个组。 新浪科技讯 1月 ...