人民财讯10月24日电，洛阳钼业（603993）10月24日发布2025年三季报，公司第三季度营业收入507.13 亿元，同比下降2.36%；净利润56.08亿元，同比增长96.4%。2025年前三季度营业收入1454.85亿元，同 比下降5.99%；净利润142.8亿元，同比增长72.61%；基本每股收益0.67元。业绩变动系主要产品价格同 比上升，叠加铜产品产销量同比实现增长，实现利润同比上升。 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun, Contact: 010 - 56711796, Futures Qualification No.: F3066027, Futures Trading Consultation No.: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Steel and Ore Views - Current Situation: In the current policy vacuum period, this week's screw and coil production and apparent demand both increased, with hot - rolled coils stronger than screws in production and sales. Inventory continued to decline, and both screws and coils were in a continuous de - stocking state. However, the total steel output decreased, mainly in medium and heavy plates. Upstream coal mine safety inspections led to a second round of coke price increases, which are likely to be implemented, supporting finished products. The current daily hot metal output is 239.9 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.05 million tons, still at a relatively high level. This week, the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a 7.79% decrease from last week. Electric - arc furnaces are in full - scale losses, while blast furnaces still have profits, creating a rigid demand for iron ore. It is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline, likely falling below 230 million tons [5][24] - Price Forecast: The pressure level of the main screw contract is 3230, and close attention should be paid to whether 3000 can provide effective support. In the short term, 3000 has certain toughness. It is expected that iron ore will continue to maintain a volatile trend. The pressure level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and close attention should be paid to the support level of 750 [5][6] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Screw Strategy: Maintain the previous view that in the short term, the screw at 3000 still has strong toughness. When approaching 3000, it is recommended to try going long, and those who already have long positions should continue to hold. Once it effectively breaks below, it is recommended to stop loss and exit [6] - Iron Ore Strategy: It is recommended to operate short - term and set stop - losses. The spread between hot - rolled coils and screws has widened to over 200, and the room for further widening is limited [6] Group 4: Important Information - Ship Exports: In September, China exported 543 ships, a 24.0% year - on - year increase; from January to September, the cumulative exports were 5226 ships, a 23.5% year - on - year increase [7] - Industrial Added Value: In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year in real terms. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [7] - Coal and Coke Production: In September, the output of raw coal was 41.1505 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year decrease; from January to September, the cumulative output was 357.017 million tons, a 2.0% year - on - year increase. In September, the output of coke was 4.2556 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year increase; from January to September, the cumulative output was 37.7161 million tons, a 3.5% year - on - year increase [7] - Steel Production: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year decrease; pig iron output was 66.05 million tons, a 2.4% year - on - year decrease; steel output was 124.21 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, China's crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease; pig iron output was 645.86 million tons, a 1.1% year - on - year decrease; steel output was 1103.85 million tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase [7] - Real Estate: From January to September, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a 13.9% year - on - year decrease. The new housing start - up area decreased by 18.9%, and the housing completion area decreased by 15.3% [7] - Iron Ore Production and Sales: In the third quarter of 2025, Vale's total iron ore output was 94.4 million tons, a 12.9% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 3.8% year - on - year increase; total sales were 86 million tons, an 11.21% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 5.1% year - on - year increase [7] Group 5: Market Analysis - Steel Price Cycle: Steel prices generally follow a 7 - year cycle. From 2008 - 2015, they declined; from 2016 - 2021, they rose; from 2021 - 2025, they are in a decline cycle. Currently, they are still in the downward cycle [8] - Macro - level: The Fourth Plenary Session has a certain supporting effect on the market. However, the terminal market performance is still poor. Real estate investment growth continues to decline, infrastructure investment and manufacturing growth have been decreasing since April, and only exports remain at a relatively high level but are also showing a downward trend. The uncertainty of steel exports in the future has increased, and external demand cannot make up for the weak domestic demand [16] - Supply - side: From January to September, China's crude steel output continued to show negative year - on - year growth, and the reduction in pig iron output was relatively small [16] - Supply and Demand: This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.6532 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 83,700 tons, an increase of 1.0%; the total inventory was 15.5485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 274,100 tons, a decrease of 1.7%; the apparent consumption was 8.9273 million tons, a 2.2% month - on - month increase [17] - Structural Features: Screw production has been lower than the same period in previous years, while hot - rolled coil and medium - heavy plate production have been higher than in previous years. Hot metal has shifted to plates. This week, the increase in screw production was greater than that of hot - rolled coils, but the demand for hot - rolled coils was stronger. Electric - arc furnaces are in full - scale losses, while blast furnaces still have profits [20] - Iron Ore Inventory: The current iron ore port inventory has accumulated, and the inventory contradiction is not prominent. The inventory at Australian and Brazilian ports has been rapidly de - stocked, reaching a new low in the second half of the year [24] - Iron Ore Transportation: From September 29 to October 5, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 27.758 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.721 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 26.087 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.482 million tons. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 1.964 million tons week - on - week [27] - Spread: The spread between hot - rolled coils and screws has widened to over 200, and the inter - period trading opportunities are not significant [28]

Core Viewpoint - The overall demand for copper is optimistic, but supply concerns have arisen due to a series of mining accidents, pushing copper prices towards a new testing point of $11,000 per ton, nearing last year's historical high [1] Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Three-month copper futures in London have increased by over 1%, approaching $10,970 per ton [1] - Year-to-date, copper prices have risen approximately 25%, recovering from significant sell-offs triggered by trade tensions in April [1] - Supply issues have become a central concern for investors, particularly due to the suspension of operations at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia caused by a landslide [1] Group 2: Other Metals Performance - Aluminum prices have reached their highest level in over three years, currently at $2,883.50 per ton, and are on track for a fourth consecutive week of gains [1] - Zinc and tin prices have also seen increases during the trading session on Friday [1] Group 3: Company Updates - Freeport-McMoRan has indicated that the Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, remains in a state of suspension, with an update on the mine's outlook expected next month [1]

西部矿业公告，第三季度营收为168.23亿元，同比增长43.20%；净利润为10.76亿元，同比下降3.20%。 前三季度营收为484.42亿元，同比增长31.90%；净利润为29.45亿元，同比增长7.80%。 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - Recent capital markets have seen fluctuations in gold prices, A-shares hovering around 3900 points, and a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is driven by a need to stabilize the economy amidst weak growth and fluctuating inflation, with a focus on maintaining balance in stocks, bonds, and currencies [6] - Historical patterns indicate that when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, global tensions often escalate, suggesting a correlation between U.S. monetary policy and international stability [6] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Long-term investment strategies should focus on core assets such as leading internet companies in Hong Kong and consumer stocks in A-shares, as they are most sensitive to global monetary conditions [7] - The semiconductor and innovative pharmaceutical sectors are highlighted as growth areas that could benefit from lower interest rates, easing valuation pressures [7] - The recent surge in copper prices is attributed to increased demand from AI data centers and military spending, with significant price increases observed in related stock indices [10][12] Group 3: Currency and Market Dynamics - The Chinese yuan has experienced three notable appreciation cycles, often correlating with strong economic performance and financial liberalization, leading to increased foreign investment in A-shares [8] - The rise in the yuan's value typically signals enhanced international investor confidence in the Chinese economy, which in turn supports A-share market performance [8][11] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - BYD's stock has seen a decline of approximately 30% from its peak, coinciding with a reduction in its sales target for 2025, raising concerns among investors [14] - Alibaba, Tencent, and SMIC have attracted significant capital inflows, indicating a trend towards investing in technology leaders within the Hong Kong market [16][17] - Wanda Group's strategy of selling off assets while maintaining a strong portfolio of operational properties is crucial for managing its debt crisis and ensuring cash flow stability [18]

Group 1 - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," China has invested nearly 450 billion yuan in mineral exploration, with geological exploration investment reaching 115.99 billion yuan in 2024, marking four consecutive years of positive growth [1] - A total of 150 new mineral sites were discovered in 2024, including 49 large, 54 medium, and 47 small sites, indicating significant progress in the new round of mineral exploration strategy [1] - Major breakthroughs in mineral resources have been achieved in key mineral-rich areas and large oil and gas basins, with notable advancements in oil and gas resources in regions such as the Tarim Basin and Sichuan Basin, as well as significant increases in resources for copper, iron, and phosphorus [1] Group 2 - In 2024, fixed asset investment in China's mining industry continued to grow, increasing by 10.5% compared to the previous year, with production of 10 types of non-ferrous metals and energy minerals like coal, crude oil, and natural gas reaching historical highs [2] - The implementation of 10 national standards and 85 industry standards in the mineral resources sector in 2024 reflects ongoing efforts to enhance regulatory frameworks, alongside the initiation of major scientific projects and innovation platforms focused on key technological research [2]

Core Viewpoint - Minmetals Resources (01208) experienced a significant stock price increase, rising over 7% and reaching HKD 7.01, with a trading volume of HKD 4.52 billion, following the announcement of strong production figures for copper and zinc in Q3 2025 [1] Production Performance - The total copper production for Q3 2025 is projected to be 127,030 tons, representing an 11% year-on-year increase [1] - Zinc production is expected to reach 58,747 tons, marking a 26% year-on-year growth [1] - The Las Bambas mine has achieved a production ranking as the fifth largest copper mine globally in the first half of the year [1] Quarterly Production Insights - In Q3, the Las Bambas mine produced 102,875 tons of copper concentrate, which is a 14% increase compared to the same period in 2024, continuing the strong production momentum from Q2 [1] - The strong performance is attributed to the Las Bambas, Kinsevere, and Dugald River mining areas [1] Production Guidance - Due to the stable operations at the Las Bambas mine, the company has raised its annual copper production guidance for this mine to 400,000 tons [1] - The production level is expected to be sustainable over the next two years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jaxin International Resources (03858) has seen a stock price increase of over 6%, currently trading at HKD 36.88, with a trading volume of HKD 22.0075 million, driven by a tight market for tungsten concentrate and rising prices [1] Company Summary - Jaxin International Resources' core asset is the Bakuta tungsten mine, which has already commenced production and is expected to increase output in the future, benefiting from rising tungsten prices and potentially leading to rapid profit growth [1] Industry Summary - The tungsten concentrate market is experiencing a tight supply and strong pricing, with the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate reported at CNY 280,000 per standard ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.3% and a year-to-date increase of 95.8% [1] - The demand for tungsten is anticipated to grow due to several potential growth points, including its use in controlled nuclear fusion, where tungsten and its alloys are ideal candidate materials due to their excellent high-temperature performance, radiation resistance, and mechanical properties [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiajin International Resources (03858) has seen a stock price increase of over 6%, currently trading at HKD 36.88, with a transaction volume of HKD 22.0075 million, driven by a tight market for tungsten concentrate and rising prices [1] Company Summary - Jiajin International's core asset is the Bakuta tungsten mine, which has already commenced production and is expected to increase output in the future, benefiting from rising tungsten prices and potentially leading to significant profit growth [1][1] Industry Summary - The tungsten concentrate market is currently characterized by a sellers' market, with a strong price performance. The price of black tungsten concentrate is reported at CNY 280,000 per standard ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.3% and a year-to-date increase of 95.8% [1] - The demand for tungsten is anticipated to grow due to several potential growth points, including its application in controlled nuclear fusion, where tungsten and its alloys are ideal materials due to their excellent high-temperature performance, radiation resistance, and mechanical properties [1][1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs traders are bullish on copper prices in the short term, influenced by conservative production targets from Antofagasta Plc, raising supply concerns and pushing copper prices to a two-week high [1] - Copper has risen over 20% this year, supported by mine shutdowns and production constraints globally, with LME copper prices increasing by 1.8% on Thursday [1] - Antofagasta expects to reach the lower limit of its production target for the year, and its 2026 production target is below analyst expectations, accelerating the rise in copper prices [1] Group 2 - The proposal by former President Donald Trump to impose import tariffs on copper created significant arbitrage opportunities, with Comex copper futures prices remaining above the global benchmark LME copper prices [2] - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the arbitrage opportunity between Comex and LME will significantly tighten the physical copper market outside the U.S., presenting short-term upside risks to their LME copper price forecast range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton [2] - LME copper prices closed at $10,854.50 per ton on Thursday, while other metal prices generally increased, with zinc prices slightly declining [2]