Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic export and financial data are better than expected, boosting the sentiment of the domestic market. However, short - term external risks need to be noted. The domestic risk preference continues to rise, and the short - term optimistic sentiment persists [2][3]. - The short - term trends of various assets are as follows: The stock index fluctuates strongly in the short term; treasury bonds fluctuate at a high level; among commodity sectors, black metals rebound from a low level, non - ferrous metals fluctuate, energy and chemicals fluctuate, and precious metals fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US president's announcement of more tariff letters leads the EU to take counter - measures, and the market takes a wait - and - see attitude. Fed officials indicate no urgent need for interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index rebounds in the short term [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continues to rise, and export and financial data in June are better than expected, with economic growth accelerating. Policy emphasizes "anti - involution" and "stabilizing employment", which helps boost domestic risk preference in the short term [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, metals, and home appliances, the domestic stock market rises slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive weakens, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fluctuate due to policy expectations and避险情绪. Silver shows a strong upward trend, and the gold - silver ratio is significantly repaired. In the long - term, the support logic for precious metals remains solid [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel futures and spot prices continue to rebound. Although the export in the first half of the year is good, the demand weakens in reality, and the supply decreases due to the implementation of production - restriction policies. The cost support is strong, and the short - term steel market is still treated with a rebound mindset [5]. Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore continue to rebound. The fundamentals of iron ore weaken marginally, and the implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. The short - term macro - logic dominates, and the price fluctuates strongly [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remain flat, and the futures prices rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreases, and the short - term prices may follow the rebound of coal prices [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The concern about tariffs resurfaces. The future trend of copper prices depends on the time when tariffs are implemented. If implemented before August 1, copper prices will continue to weaken; otherwise, the price may be supported [11]. Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum drops significantly. In addition to tariff concerns, the significant increase in social inventory is also an important factor [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering cost support, the short - term price will fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited [11]. Tin - The supply increases slightly, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward space will be suppressed in the medium term [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate rises significantly. The production increases, and the inventory accumulates. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon rises. The production increases, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy [14]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon rises. The supply is stable at a low level, and the downstream prices change. Affected by policy news, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The concern about tariffs continues, and the demand worry puts pressure on oil prices. However, the short - term tightness in the spot market supports the price [16][17]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates. The shipment volume decreases, the factory inventory starts to accumulate, and the demand in the peak season is average [17]. PX - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate weakly. The upstream profit is greatly reduced, and the downstream demand may weaken [17]. PTA - The PTA market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The price has limited upward space in the short term and may decline [18]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol returns significantly, and the demand slows down. It will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [18]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber follows the polyester sector and fluctuates weakly. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high [18][19]. Methanol - The fundamental situation of methanol deteriorates, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, while the 01 contract can be considered for long positions [19]. PP - The supply pressure of PP increases, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price center is expected to move down [19]. LLDPE - The demand for LLDPE is in the off - season, and the inventory increases. The short - term price may rebound slightly, but the long - term price center may move down [19]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The export inspection volume of US soybeans is lower than expected, and the压榨 volume is expected to decline. The future of Sino - US soybean trade relations will directly affect US soybeans [20]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans are under pressure, and the risk of downward pressure on soybean meal and rapeseed meal increases. The consumption of rapeseed meal in the peak season is far from expected, and the inventory is slow to decline [21][22]. Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - The supply and demand of soybean oil are loose, and the price difference is weak. The inventory of rapeseed oil is slow to decline, and the policy premium support weakens [23]. Palm Oil - The inventory of palm oil is repaired, and the price is under downward pressure in the short term. However, the export demand may be supported [24]. Corn - Affected by factors such as the substitution of new wheat and the auction of imported corn, the corn market is under pressure. However, there is still a risk of rebound after the over - decline [25]. Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs increases, and the pig price is under pressure at a high level. The futures price may decline slightly in the short term [25].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: July 15, 2025 Group 2: Iron Ore Spot Market Australian Ore - Newman Powder: Latest price 747, daily change 1, weekly change 31, import profit -29.94 [2] - PB Powder: Latest price 750, daily change 2, weekly change 29, import profit -6.83 [2] - McFadden Powder: Latest price 732, daily change 0, weekly change 27, import profit -9.23 [2] - Jinbuba: Latest price 717, daily change 2, weekly change 37, import profit -0.05 [2] - Mainstream Mixed Powder: Latest price 677, daily change 2, weekly change 22, import profit -4.02 [2] - Super Special Powder: Latest price 635, daily change 0, weekly change 26, import profit -7.20 [2] - Carajás Powder: Latest price 851, daily change 2, weekly change 38, import profit -30.82 [2] Brazilian Ore - Brazilian Mixed Ore: Latest price 784, daily change 2, weekly change 29, import profit -0.62 [2] - Brazilian Coarse IOC6: Latest price 725, daily change 2, weekly change 29 [2] - Brazilian Coarse SSFG: Latest price 730, daily change 2, weekly change 29 [2] Other Regions' Ore - Ukrainian Concentrate: Latest price 834, daily change 2, weekly change 29 [2] - 61% Indian Powder: Latest price 706, daily change 2, weekly change 46 [2] - Karara Concentrate: Latest price 834, daily change 2, weekly change 29 [2] - Roy Hill Powder: Latest price 720, daily change 2, weekly change 29, import profit -7.89 [2] - South African Powder: Latest price 810, daily change 2, weekly change 29 [2] - 57% Indian Powder: Latest price 590, daily change 0, weekly change 35 [2] - Robe River Powder: Latest price 731, daily change -5, weekly change 25 [2] - Atlas Powder: Latest price 672, daily change 2, weekly change 22 [2] Domestic Ore - Tangshan Iron Concentrate: Latest price 883, daily change 2, weekly change 19 [2] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Market Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts - i2601: Latest price 736.5, daily change 0.0, weekly change 32.5, monthly spread 30.0 [2] - i2605: Latest price 717.5, daily change 0.5, weekly change 30.0, monthly spread 19.0 [2] - i2509: Latest price 766.5, daily change 2.5, weekly change 35.5, monthly spread -49.0 [2] Singapore Exchange Contracts - FE01: Latest price 98.27, daily change 0.29, weekly change 4.09, monthly spread -59.5 [2] - FE05: Latest price 96.64, daily change 0.25, weekly change 4.07, monthly spread 1.63 [2] - FE09: Latest price 99.36, daily change 0.35, weekly change 3.76 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries, particularly focusing on tariff negotiations and their implications for various industries and markets [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff and Trade Negotiations - U.S. President Trump announced plans to negotiate tariffs with multiple countries, including the EU, and has already sent letters to over 20 national leaders regarding new tariffs set to take effect on August 1 [1]. - A 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. was also announced, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with inventory decreasing by 970,000 heavy boxes to 57.34 million heavy boxes [2][15]. Soda ash inventory increased by 33,000 tons to 1.864 million tons, indicating a need for time to digest current stock levels [2][15]. - **Stock Indices**: U.S. stock indices saw slight fluctuations with a market turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 2.082 billion yuan to 1.862586 trillion yuan, suggesting a growing interest in long-term investments [3][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons, while inventory rose by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons, indicating a mixed market sentiment with potential price fluctuations ahead [4][21]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's total goods trade for the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7% [6]. - The People's Bank of China reported a 7.1% year-on-year increase in RMB loans, with the total social financing scale growing by 8.9% [8]. Group 4: Market Trends - **Bond Market**: The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.668%, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan to maintain liquidity [10]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices are under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding global tariffs and production increases from OPEC, which may affect demand forecasts [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, which may impact future prices and market dynamics [25].

Report Title - The report is titled "Weak Demand Pressure in the Off - season, Steel Prices Rise and Then Fall - Weekly Report 20250707" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic environment shows enhanced expectations of warming policies, leading to a significant rebound in steel futures and spot prices. However, in the industrial aspect, the overall supply - demand structure continues to weaken during the high - temperature and rainy off - season. Steel prices are expected to face short - term correction pressure as the previous macro - positive sentiment fades [3][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: In the previous week, due to the improved macro - atmosphere and enhanced expectations of capacity control, commodity prices generally rebounded. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities increased, with rebar in Shanghai rising by 90 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai rising by 60 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton. Futures prices also showed significant increases, with the RB01 contract rising by 88 yuan/ton to 3093 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory Changes**: Rebar social inventory slightly increased, and hot - rolled coil total inventory increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar total inventory decreased by 3.79 tons to 545.21 tons, while hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 3.77 tons to 344.93 tons [9] 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 221.08 tons (up 1.49% week - on - week, down 11.01% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 328.14 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week, up 0.57% year - on - year). Rebar production increased in both blast furnaces and electric furnaces, with blast furnace output at 195.24 tons (up 1.23% week - on - week, down 7.62% year - on - year) and electric furnace output at 25.84 tons (up 3.44% week - on - week, up 1.69% year - on - year). The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (down 0.43% week - on - week, up 0.42% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 66.87% (down 4.66% week - on - week, down 4.46% year - on - year) [15][17][22] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 224.87 tons (up 2.26% week - on - week, down 4.42% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 324.37 tons (down 0.58% week - on - week, up 2.10% year - on - year). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 10.68 tons (up 8.23% week - on - week, down 16.56% year - on - year) [36] - **Inventory**: Rebar slightly reduced inventory, with social inventory increasing and factory inventory decreasing. Rebar factory inventory was 180.47 tons (down 2.76% week - on - week, down 6.81% year - on - year), social inventory was 364.74 tons (up 0.37% week - on - week, down 35.63% year - on - year), and total inventory was 545.21 tons (down 0.69% week - on - week, down 30.69% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, with both factory and social inventory slightly rising. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 78.32 tons (up 0.13% week - on - week, down 13.31% year - on - year), social inventory was 266.61 tons (up 1.40% week - on - week, down 19.58% year - on - year), and total inventory was 344.93 tons (up 1.11% week - on - week, down 18.14% year - on - year) [40][45] - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 39.03% week - on - week and 2.42% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.28% week - on - week and increased by 8.91% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in May 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.1% and 3.7%, and year - on - year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [48][51] 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased to 2417.8 tons (down 13.25% week - on - week, down 4.15% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2483.9 tons (up 5.12% week - on - week, down 10.89% year - on - year). The iron ore price index was 95.44 (up 3.38% week - on - week, down 13.70% year - on - year) [59] - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 319.29 tons (down 2.04% week - on - week, up 1.87% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.65 days (up 0.95% week - on - week, down 5.63% year - on - year) [64] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.37% week - on - week to 13878.4 tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.80% week - on - week to 8918.57 tons. The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises were 22.44 days (up 0.22% week - on - week, up 3.55% year - on - year) [70] 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines increased to 83.82% (up 1.62% week - on - week, down 6.90% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal - washing plants was 59.72% (up 1.05% week - on - week, down 14.48% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased by 64% week - on - week to 12.56 tons (down 19.13% year - on - year) [76] - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction成交 rate was 79.17% (down 7% week - on - week, down 19.51% year - on - year), and the weekly成交 rate was 86.7% (up 23.31% week - on - week, down 2.87% year - on - year). The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year) [78] - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants increased by 5.57% week - on - week to 716.49 tons, the port inventory of coking coal increased by 6.54% week - on - week to 304.27 tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 1.03% week - on - week to 789.43 tons. The coke inventory of independent coking plants decreased by 16.45% week - on - week to 61.6 tons, the coke port inventory decreased by 4.48% week - on - week to 191.12 tons, and the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 637.49 tons [91][97] - **Spot Price**: After four rounds of price cuts, coke prices temporarily stabilized. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1180 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 820 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103] 5. Spread Analysis - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The basis of hot - rolled coil significantly contracted, and the spreads between the 10 - 1 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted [105] - **Others**: The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore contracted, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar fluctuated within a narrow range [111]

Report Date - The report is dated July 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Steel Market**: Last week, the steel market was driven by supply - side "anti - involution" and production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi. With the expectation of a central urban work conference, the market speculated on policy dividends. The overall sentiment was optimistic, pushing up prices. In the short - term, the market may continue to rise due to strong macro - optimism and speculative inventory locking, but export orders and production in the home appliance and auto industries are declining [3] - **Iron Ore Market**: The recent sharp rise in iron ore prices is driven by rumors, low valuation, improved fundamentals, and policy catalysts. Currently, prices are mainly driven by expectations, and the short - term fundamentals are favorable, but there is high short - term uncertainty [18] - **Coal and Coke Market**: Recently, the macro - environment has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coal and coke market. In the short - term, the market may continue to be strong, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap for coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] - **Ferroalloy Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, ferroalloys have been rising slowly, but the long - term trend is weak due to steel mills' price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate between sentiment - driven factors and real - world constraints [52] - **Soda Ash Market**: Affected by expectations and fundamental limitations, soda ash prices are rising. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [63] - **Glass Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the glass market is strong. The supply side has a combination of ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varies by region. Attention should be paid to cold - repair expectations and speculative demand [86] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3288 yuan/ton. The spot price of rebar in China was 3292 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [4][7] - **Market Analysis**: The market was driven by supply - side policies and demand - side policy expectations. The inventory was low, and the speculative demand was rising, but export orders were decreasing [3] Iron Ore - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 766.5 yuan/ton. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 750 yuan/ton [19] - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13765.89 tons, and the global shipping volume was 2987.1 tons [26] - **Market Analysis**: The price increase was driven by multiple factors, and the short - term fundamentals were favorable, but there was high uncertainty [18] Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton. The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1200 yuan/ton, and the Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1270 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be strong due to good downstream profits, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] Ferroalloy - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 90 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of silicon - iron in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5600 yuan/ton [53][54] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, the market rose slowly, but the long - term trend was weak due to price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate [52] Soda Ash - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1311 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1241 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [64][65] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by expectations and fundamentals, the price was rising. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation [63] Glass - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1086 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 79.4 yuan/ton [88] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the market was strong. The supply side had ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varied by region [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, spot prices rose significantly, and the futures market rebounded from a low level. Blast furnace production decreased slightly, and electric furnace production continued to decline. Building material social inventory continued to decrease, while plate inventory accumulated at an accelerated pace. Building material speculative demand increased significantly, while plate domestic demand declined significantly. Blast furnace profits remained high, and the loss of electric furnaces narrowed. The basis narrowed slightly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were stopped for profit. The industrial logic accounted for a relatively low proportion, and the expected trading speculation was still fermenting. The probability of the futures market returning to a downward trend in the short - term was low. It was recommended to temporarily stop losses on short positions and wait for an opportunity to cover short positions after the rebound ended [7]. - For iron ore, the ore price rose strongly, and the futures market continued to rebound. Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, while arrivals increased slightly. Blast furnace production decreased, and demand weakened month - on - month. Port inventory decreased slightly, and the total downstream inventory declined. Shipping costs increased slightly, and the futures price spread narrowed. The anti - involution speculation continued to ferment, and the market sentiment was still recovering. The supply was relatively flat last week, and the demand decreased slightly. The change in supply - demand strength was not obvious, and it was expected that news speculation would continue next week. It was also recommended to temporarily stop losses on short positions and wait for an opportunity to cover short positions after the rebound ended [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The price of rebar rebounded strongly last week, with the 10 - contract rising 77 to 3072. The spot price fluctuated, with rebar in East China reported at 3170 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan week - on - week [13]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, down 0.31 percentage points week - on - week and up 0.65 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, down 0.39 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, a decrease of 1.04 tons week - on - week. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.73%, down 1.97 percentage points [16][24]. - The rebar production decreased by 4.42 tons last week, and the hot - rolled production decreased by 5 tons week - on - week [27]. 3.1.3 Demand - From July 2nd to July 8th, the national cement outbound volume was 272.58 tons, down 1.26% week - on - week and 27.41% year - on - year. Speculative demand improved, while terminal demand declined [31]. - The weekly consumption of the five major steel products was 873.07 tons, down 1.4%; plate consumption decreased by 1.8% month - on - month [34]. 3.1.4 Profit - For blast furnaces, although the iron ore price rose significantly and the profit per ton of steel declined, it still operated between 160 - 200. The loss of short - process production was repaired, and the valley - electricity production in the Southwest region turned profitable [38]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1339.58 tons, down 0.35 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.03%. The total inventory of the five major products decreased week - on - week. The factory inventory increased week - on - week, mainly contributed by medium - thick plates. The social inventory decreased week - on - week, mainly contributed by rebar. The rebar factory inventory showed a slight increase, up 0.41 tons week - on - week [42]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - factory inventory decreased slightly compared with last week. In terms of social inventory, from the perspective of the three major regions, the inventory in the North decreased by 1.61 tons week - on - week, while the inventory in East China and the South increased by 1.84 tons and 0.9 tons respectively [45]. 3.1.6 Basis The current basis of rebar 10 was 107, narrowing 1 compared with last week, and the change in the basis was not significant. All reverse arbitrage positions were stopped for profit [50]. 3.1.7 Inter - period Spread The 10 - 1 spread was - 28, with an inverted spread of 7 compared with last week, and the degree of inversion deepened. The near - month contract faced off - season pressure, and the price was expected to decline. The far - month contract had a better expectation, and the price was relatively high. The inverted spread situation might be repaired after the rebound ended [53]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 140, widening 11 compared with last week. The spot spread was 70, narrowing 20 compared with last week. The spread was at a moderately high level. The rebar rebound was relatively strong, and the plate faced the off - season of the automotive industry with declining demand. It was expected that there would be no further contraction space in the futures spread, and no operation was recommended [56]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore price rebounded strongly last week, with the 09 - contract rising 31.5 to 764. The spot price also rose, with the PB fines at Qingdao Port rising 27 to 752 yuan/ton. The market sentiment improved significantly, and downstream enterprises actively replenished stocks, leading to a significant increase in port transactions [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - According to Mysteel's global iron ore shipment data, the current shipment volume was 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 363 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in July was 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 437 tons compared with last month and an increase of 64 tons compared with last year [64]. - In the long - term, the weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 1764 tons, a decrease of 252 tons compared with last month and an increase of 95 tons compared with last year. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 653.8 tons, a decrease of 181 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 144 tons compared with last year. From the perspective of cumulative shipments this year, the cumulative global iron ore shipments decreased by 173 tons year - on - year, with Brazil's cumulative shipments increasing by 683 tons year - on - year, Australia's cumulative shipments decreasing by 661 tons year - on - year, and non - mainstream regions' cumulative shipments decreasing by 196 tons year - on - year [67]. - The arrival volume of 47 ports increased week - on - week, at a moderately low level compared with the same period in the past three years. The current arrival volume was 2535.5 tons, an increase of 122 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in July was 2535.5 tons, a decrease of 59 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 20 tons compared with last year. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative arrival volume of 47 ports decreased by 2528 tons year - on - year, with Australia's cumulative arrivals decreasing by 575 tons year - on - year, Brazil's cumulative arrivals decreasing by 392 tons year - on - year, and non - mainstream regions' cumulative arrivals decreasing by 1560 tons year - on - year [70]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased last week, with an average daily output of 239.81 tons/day, a decrease of 1.04 tons/day compared with last week, an increase of 9.22 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 1.52 tons/day compared with last year [73]. - In terms of downstream procurement, the average daily port transaction volume last week was 90.1 tons, a decrease of 7.7 tons week - on - week. Due to the sharp rise in the previous period, the market's fear of high prices resurfaced, and the overall transaction volume declined. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished stocks as needed, and the procurement volume decreased with the decline in pig iron production [76]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The inventory of 47 ports decreased week - on - week, lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory of 47 ports was 14346.89 tons, a decrease of 139 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 1264 tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 1359 tons lower than the inventory at the same period last year [79]. - In terms of downstream inventory, on July 10th, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills under the new statistical caliber was 2814.74 tons, an increase of 13.80 tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 112.42 tons, a decrease of 5.81 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 25.04, an increase of 1.35 compared with the previous period. The total steel mill ore powder inventory decreased slightly. Currently, the price was relatively high, and the steel procurement rhythm was slow [82]. 3.2.5 Shipping The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 7.54 US dollars/ton, rising 0.15 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost from Brazil to China was 19.33 US dollars/ton, rising 0.75 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost increased slightly [85]. 3.2.6 Spread The 9 - 1 spread was 27.5, widening 2 compared with last week, and the overall change was not significant. The 9 - 1 spread was at a moderately low level, and the overall spread structure was relatively flat. The 09 - contract was at a discount of 9, at a moderately low level. The spread narrowed 5 last week. Recently, the futures price rose sharply, and the spot price might follow the decline of finished steel products later. The iron ore basis was expected to expand slightly [88].

黑色金属周报-铁矿 宏观预期提振 矿价震荡偏强 宏观预期提振 矿价震荡偏强 研究所 白净 F03097282，Z0018999 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 上周铁矿现货价格震荡反弹，上涨幅度在24-40元不等。具体来看，卡粉（+31），PB粉（+25），BRBF （+25），金布巴（+40）， 超特粉（+25），mac（+26）。块矿方面，PB块（+29） ，纽曼块（+33），乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉（+24） 。普氏62%指数方面，截止 7月11日，普氏指数收于98.3美元，周环比回升2.6美元，目前按汇率7.17折算人民币大致在821元左右。仓单方面，截止7月11日，最优 交割品为NM粉，目前最新报价在746元/吨左右，折算仓单（厂库）为769元/吨左右，09铁矿贴水现货，除NM粉之外，次优交割品为pb粉。 库存方面：中国47港铁矿石库存环比去库，低于去年同期。截止目前，47港铁矿石库存总量14346.89万吨，环比去库139万吨,较 年初去库1264万吨,比去年同期库存低1359万吨。下期从卸货端考虑，到港持稳；从需求端考虑，铁水窄幅波动，日均疏港量持稳，下 周预计整体卸货入库量 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.16%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, rebar shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have not improved. Steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are low inventory and cost support from strong raw materials. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil was running at a high level with a daily increase of 0.09%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, and the fundamentals are weakly stable with a slight increase in inventory. However, the expected policy benefits are fermenting, and combined with strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coil maintains a relatively strong operation. Be wary of the fermentation of overseas tariff risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.26%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Currently, the expected policy benefits have improved market sentiment, driving the iron ore price back to a high level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed substantially, and the valuation has risen to a relatively high level. It is expected that the iron ore price will turn into a high - level fluctuating and consolidating trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.7%. In June, imports, exports, and exports all achieved positive year - on - year growth, and the growth rates were rising [6]. - At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In the first half of the year, net cash injection was 363.3 billion yuan. The balance of local and foreign currency loans at the end of June was 272.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The balance of RMB loans at the end of the month was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan [7]. - In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, China imported 470,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%. In June, China imported 105.948 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 7.817 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 8.0%; from January to June, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 592.205 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,180, 3,190, and 3,292 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 3 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,300, 3,200, and 3,307 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 10, and - 2 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,960 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,110 with an increase of 30. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 120 with an increase of 10, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,070 with a decrease of 40 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 749 with a decrease of 1, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 702 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 7.75 with an increase of 0.37, and from Brazil was 19.33 with an increase of 0.92. The SGX swap (current month) was 97.80 with an increase of 0.20, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 98.30 with a decrease of 0.25 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,138, with a daily increase of 0.16%. The highest price was 3,143, the lowest price was 3,122, the trading volume was 1,164,609 with a decrease of 489,936, and the open interest was 2,122,341 with a decrease of 78,184 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,276, with a daily increase of 0.09%. The highest price was 3,281, the lowest price was 3,256, the trading volume was 454,659 with a decrease of 155,211, and the open interest was 1,580,291 with a decrease of 19,457 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 766.5, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The highest price was 769.5, the lowest price was 763.0, the trading volume was 239,244 with a decrease of 121,405, and the open interest was 664,821 with an increase of 2,959 [11]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Both supply and demand have weakened. The output of rebar decreased by 44,200 tons week - on - week due to steel mill conversion, but the supply is still at a relatively high level this year, and the sustainability of production reduction is questionable. The demand for rebar is weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 33,700 tons week - on - week, and the high - frequency daily trading volume significantly shrinking. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50,000 tons week - on - week due to steel mill adjustment, but the supply is still at a high level this year, and the pressure relief is limited. The demand for hot - rolled coil is less resilient, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 18,600 tons week - on - week, and the high - frequency trading volume also shrinking. The price of hot - rolled coil maintains a relatively strong operation, but be wary of the fermentation of overseas tariff risks [37]. - Iron ore: Both supply and demand have weakened. The consumption of iron ore by steel mills has continued to decline, and the arrival of ore at ports has increased significantly week - on - week, but the shipment of miners has continued to decline. It is expected that the iron ore price will turn into a high - level fluctuating and consolidating trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - This week, steel price fluctuations increased again, with significant increases in rebar and hot-rolled coil prices and a weakening of the basis. The black prices started to stabilize in June due to environmental inspections and production cuts in coking coal. Market sentiment improved in July, leading to a general increase in commodities. The fundamentals show that weekly steel production decreased with the decline in apparent demand, and inventory remained flat in July, indicating a balanced supply and demand situation. In the second half of the year, demand is likely to decline, and the supply will remain abundant, resulting in insufficient price increase momentum. Currently, low inventory and improved market sentiment support valuation repair trading, but the upward elasticity of actual demand is limited. The next macro observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. [1] Iron Ore Industry - Last week, the iron ore 09 contract showed a strong upward trend. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week-on-week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly increased. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to continue to decline. On the demand side, due to increased steel mill maintenance and production restrictions in Tangshan, the pig iron output decreased from its high level but remained at around 240,000 tons per day. In the short term, the resilience of pig iron production will be maintained. Although the terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off-season, the current export rush provides some support. In the future, the pig iron output in July will continue to decline, with an average expected to be maintained at 230,000 - 240,000 tons, and steel mill profits will continue to improve. In the short term, iron ore will fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips for single-side operations and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread long operation. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, the coke and coking coal futures showed strong upward trends. For coke, the fourth round of price cuts was implemented on June 23, and the market expects the first round of price increases to be implemented soon. On the supply side, some coal mines and coking plants have resumed production, but the overall production recovery is slow. On the demand side, due to environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, the operating rates of independent coking plants and blast furnaces decreased slightly. In July, the pig iron output may remain at 230,000 - 240,000 tons per day. For coking coal, the spot market showed a bottoming - out and rebound trend. The overall production recovery of coal mines was slow, and the supply was still in short supply. The price of imported Mongolian coal rebounded slightly, and the port inventory pressure decreased. It is recommended to conduct a calendar spread long operation for both coke and coking coal and buy on dips for single - side operations. [7] 3. Summary by Catalog Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts increased to varying degrees. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3190 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in East China increased from 3280 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton. [1] Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and plate billets increased, and the costs of different types of steel production also changed. The profits of steel products in different regions showed varying degrees of increase, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 50 yuan/ton to 223 yuan/ton. [1] Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.2 tons to 239.8 tons, a decrease of 0.5%. The production of five major steel products decreased by 12.4 tons to 872.7 tons, a decrease of 1.4%. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased. [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products remained basically unchanged, with a slight decrease in rebar inventory and a slight increase in hot - rolled coil inventory. [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.5 tons to 10.1 tons, a decrease of 12.7%. The apparent demands of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil all decreased. [1] Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of different iron ore varieties for the 09 contract changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to - 47.0, an increase of 1.1%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.5 to 27.5, a decrease of 1.8%. [4] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 120.9 tons to 2483.9 tons, an increase of 5.1%, while the global shipment volume decreased by 362.7 tons to 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 10.8%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.3 tons to 9813.1 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 tons to 239.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased slightly. [4] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 56.8 tons to 13765.89 tons, a decrease of 0.4%, while the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 61.1 tons to 8979.6 tons, an increase of 0.7%. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of coke and coking coal futures increased, and the basis of different contracts decreased. For example, the coke 09 contract increased by 23 yuan/ton to 1520 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 09 contract increased by 16 yuan/ton to 897 yuan/ton. [7] Supply - The daily average coke production of the full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased. The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal in Fenwei sample coal mines increased slightly. [7] Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 tons to 239.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average coke production of the full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills also decreased. [7] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly, with a significant decrease in the coking plant inventory and an increase in the port inventory. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased, while the inventories of the full - sample coking plants and ports increased. [7]

Report Overview - Report Name: Shanjin Futures Black Sector Daily Report - Update Time: August 14, 2025, 08:23 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodities have experienced pulse - like price increases recently due to news - related factors. The market is currently trading on weak current realities and strong expectations. For both steel products and iron ore, short - term long positions should be closed at high prices, and new short - term long positions can be considered after sufficient adjustments. Empty - position investors should avoid chasing the rising market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Threaded Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rebar decreased, factory inventories increased, social inventories continued to decline, and total inventories decreased. Apparent demand decreased month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of hot weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventories are likely to rise slightly [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is rising steadily, but it faces resistance from previous gaps and the annual moving average [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions should be closed at high prices. After sufficient adjustments, short - term long positions can be established again. Empty - position investors should not chase the rising market [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices all increased. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous week [3]. - **Production**: The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The national building materials steel mill rebar production was 216.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00% [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, while the factory inventory increased by 0.42% [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, with nearly 60% of sample steel mills making a profit. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 239.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 million tons. With the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, molten iron output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and is rising seasonally. The current port inventory decline rate has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, exerting obvious pressure on the futures price [3][4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a long - term downward cycle. The short - term rise is mainly due to news factors, and it faces resistance from previous gaps and the annual moving average [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term long positions should be closed at high prices. After sufficient adjustments, short - term long positions can be established again. Empty - position investors should not chase the rising market [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices increased. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 763.5 yuan/dry ton, up 4.16% from the previous week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1585.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.40%, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 578.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25.47% [4]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory was 13765.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81% [4]. 3.3 Industry News - China Iron and Steel Industry Association's vice - president Wang Yingsheng stated that in the short term, domestic steel demand in the second half of 2025 is likely to decline. In the long term, China's steel demand will remain at a peak - level range for a long time. It is predicted that China's crude steel output will be between 800 million and 900 million tons in 2035 and will remain at around 800 million tons after 2050 [6]. - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise the prices of coking products. From July 14, the price of tamping wet - quenched coke for steel mill customers will be increased by 70 yuan/ton, tamping dry - quenched coke by 75 yuan/ton, and top - charged coke by 95 yuan/ton [6]. - The coke price in the Xingtai market is planned to be raised, with tamping wet - quenched coke up 70 yuan/ton, tamping dry - quenched coke up 75 yuan/ton, top - charged wet - quenched coke up 90 yuan/ton, and top - charged dry - quenched coke up 95 yuan/ton [7]. - A coal mine in Changzhi with a production capacity of 7.1 million tons resumed production on July 12, which will relieve the shortage of lean coal supply in the region to some extent [7]. - According to Gangyin E - commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 725.69 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28% [8].