美国至7月7日3个月国债竞拍-得标利率 4.255%，前值4.24%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the bid-to-cover ratio for the 3-month Treasury bill auction held in the U.S. on July 7 was 2.75, a decrease from the previous value of 3.04 [1]

美国至7月7日6个月国债竞拍-得标利率 4.145%，前值4.11%。 ...

摘要 2025 年二季度央行货币政策显著转向配合财政政策，资金中枢下移， 但信贷边际变化和央行态度将影响资金宽松持续性，7 月中下旬税期带 来流动性压力，预计三季度信贷增长偏离宏观运行轨道概率不高，货币 政策难完全宽松。 三季度地方政府专项债和国债总供给量预计 1.1-1.2 万亿，八九月份增 至 1.4-1.5 万亿，央行或买国债应对流动性问题，政策性金融工具杠杆 效应或收敛，低于 2022 年水平。 2025 年保险资金因寿险保费增速放缓，对纯债需求减少，下半年难有 作为；自营类资产也面临类似情况，需关注品种差异和结构性机会，寻 找适合配置的新增量资金。 当前利率曲线空间节奏需后移，降息预期或在 9 月后形成。信用供给释 放有限，关注科创板块等特定领域，需深入挖掘结构性机会，10 年国债 标尺券空间若不打开，将限制利率曲线发展。 2025 年农商行交易活跃度下降，低利率高波动环境下，投资者更多权 衡不同取向和战略选择，而非频繁交易。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）市场流动性状况如何，央行货币政策对市场有何影响？ 固收 债市或仍在做多窗口 20250707 今年（2025 年），市场流动性状况总体上呈现易松难 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 信用"压利差"行情或延续 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 7 月信用债市场在增量资金驱动下或延续"压利差"行情，保险、理财等增量资金入场或将提 振需求，尤其利好中长久期中低评级品种。保险预定利率下调预期、理财跨季回流及净值化整 改进度过半或释放增量配置需求。资金面宽松与信用债 ETF 扩容构成支撑，中长久期券种因利 差收窄空间较大而表现较优，但需警惕行情过热后的估值波动风险。整体来看，结构性机会明 确，但需关注政策动向及资金面变化，建议布局增量资金目标品种并控制资质下沉边界。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 信用"压利差"行情或延续 [Table_Summa] 增量资金逻辑下，信用"压利差"行情或延续 7 月保险、理财等增量资金入场或将提振信用债需求，尤其利好中低 ...

监测周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日—2025 年 6 月 29 日 总第 347 期 2025 年第 23 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 中央决算草案披露融资平台减少 7000 多家 内蒙古优化专项债还本付息机制 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 23 期 本期要点 ◼ 要闻点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 22 期】审计署披露超千亿专项债违规使 用，广西举全区之力支持柳州化解债务 2025-06-27 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 21 期】国常会强调更大力度推动房地产 止跌回稳，黑龙江健全隐债过桥偿债应急 备付金制度 2025-06-19 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 20 期】发改委"376 号文"细化 PPP 新机 制，福建明确专项债资金回收 ...

固收 信用债顺势继续挖掘 证券研究报告 SAC No. S0570520110003 SFC No. BSF414 华泰研究 文晨昕 研究员 wenchenxin@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2068 仇文竹 研究员 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 朱沁宜 研究员 SAC No. S0570523080005 zhuqinyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 王晓宇 研究员 SAC No. S0570524070005 wangxiaoyu@htsc.com 2025 年 7 月 07 日│中国内地 信用周报 向怡乔 联系人 SAC No. S0570124020005 xiangyiqiao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 6 月市场抢跑，信用长债走强，7 月跨季后非银迎来增量，信用继续走强， 二永债领涨。往后看，基本面、资金面对债市仍偏多，跨季后理财债基有增 量，信用债及科创债 ETF 是新亮点，但能否继续扩容，核心仍在信用行情 的持续，目前标的估值已 ...

东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 债市偏暖震荡，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化 ——利率债周报（2025.6.30-2025.7.6） 作者 2025 年 7 月 7 日 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市偏暖震荡，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。上周（6 月 30 日当周），尽管货币政策委员会二季度例会公告删除择机降息 降准表述、股债跷跷板效应等对债市造成一定利空扰动，但在 跨季后资金面超预期宽松以及国债发行缩量支撑下，债市呈现 偏暖震荡格局，长债收益率整体小幅下行。短端利率方面，月 初资金面宽松推动机构"卷利差"交易，带动债市短端利率继 续下行，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。 本周（7 月 7 日当周）债市料延续震荡行情。从基本面来看， 本周即将公布 6 月通胀数据，受中上旬国际原油价格冲高影响， 预计 6 月通胀数据将边际改善，但仍将处于低位运行区间，对 债市的利空影响料将有限。从资金面来看，尽管央行连续大额 净回笼，但月初资金面超预期宽松，带动资金利率创下新低。 若本周资金面延续宽松，短债利率有望进一步下行。整体上看， 预计本周债市长端利率将延续震荡行情，且在市场交易依然拥 挤背景下，波动或将加剧，短端利率 ...

Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations and an upward trend during the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) rising by 0.17% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) increasing by 0.14% [2][12] - Short-term interest rates showed strong performance, with key yield spreads widening, while credit bond yields generally declined, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads [2][12] - The liquidity in the market improved post-quarter, supporting the bond market's strength, and the demand for coupon assets returned to stability [2][12][13] US Market Dynamics - Strong US non-farm payroll data reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to an upward trend in US Treasury yields [14] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance and the unexpected strength in employment data contributed to a shift in market sentiment regarding future monetary policy [14] REITs Market Activity - The REITs secondary market saw fluctuations but ultimately rose, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index increasing by 0.66% [15] - Despite some adjustments in the market, the overall trading activity remained robust, indicating a healthy development trend [15] Public Fund Market Developments - The first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on July 2, 2025, which is expected to provide new credit base options for investors amid a low-interest-rate environment [16][17] Fund Performance Tracking - Short-term bond funds rose by 0.08% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.02% since inception [3] - Medium to long-term bond funds increased by 0.19%, achieving a cumulative return of 6.69% since inception [4] - Low-volatility fixed income plus funds rose by 0.31%, with a cumulative return of 2.79% since inception [5] - Medium-volatility fixed income plus funds increased by 0.54%, with a cumulative return of 2.33% since inception [6] - High-volatility fixed income plus funds rose by 0.40%, achieving a cumulative return of 3.40% since inception [7] - Convertible bond funds increased by 0.74%, with a cumulative return of 10.79% since inception [8] - QDII bond funds decreased by 0.08%, with a cumulative return of 7.87% since inception [9] - REITs funds rose by 1.00%, achieving a cumulative return of 40.41% since inception [10]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a warm oscillation last week, with a slight decline in long-term bond yields. The 10-year government bond futures main contract rose by 0.03%, while the 10-year bond yield fell by 0.29 basis points compared to the previous week [2][3] - The yield curve has steepened further, driven by a combination of factors including a loosening of the funding environment and a reduction in government bond issuance [1][3] Secondary Market - On July 1, the bond market was supported by a loosening funding environment and a reduction in government bond issuance, leading to a general decline in yields. The 10-year bond yield decreased by 0.36 basis points [4] - On July 2, the market continued to strengthen due to the increasingly loose funding environment, with the 10-year bond yield falling by 0.37 basis points [4] - On July 3, the bond market remained warm, with most yields declining, although the 10-year bond yield increased slightly by 0.11 basis points [4] - On July 4, short-term bonds continued to perform well due to the ongoing loose funding environment, while long-term bonds weakened slightly due to the stock-bond effect, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 0.26 basis points [4] Primary Market - A total of 47 bonds were issued last week, a decrease of 130 bonds from the previous week, with an issuance volume of 513.2 billion, down by 354.4 billion. The net financing amount was 376.6 billion, a significant decrease of 404.1 billion [11][12] - Government bonds, policy bank bonds, and local government bonds saw varying issuance trends, with government bonds and policy bank bonds increasing while local government bonds saw a significant decrease [11][12] Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic sentiment continued to improve in June, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from May. The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points [13] - The service sector PMI decreased slightly to 50.1%, reflecting seasonal trends, while the composite PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating ongoing expansion [13] Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 1375.3 billion in the open market last week, indicating a tightening of liquidity despite the overall loose funding environment [24]