周一欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率跌0.2个基点，报2.840%，日内交投于2.862%-2.833%区间，欧股 盘初走高，随后持续回落。两年期德债收益率跌0.8个基点，报2.078%，日内交投于2.095%-2.072%区 间；30年期德债收益率涨1.5个基点，报3.527%。2/10年期德债收益率利差涨0.683个基点，报+76.127个 基点。法国10年期国债收益率跌0.4个基点，两年期法债收益率跌1.0个基点，30年期法债收益率涨1.3个 基点；意大利10年期国债收益率跌1.6个基点，西班牙10年期国债收益率跌1.1个基点，希腊10年期国债 收益率跌1.6个基点。 ...

除上述报告外，投资者还将关注周二发布的12月零售销售数据，以及周四发布的当周首次申领失业金人 数。本周美联储多位官员也将密集发表讲话，理事克里斯托弗・沃勒和斯蒂芬・米兰定于周一亮相发 言。 责任编辑：李肇孚 新一周开盘，美国国债收益率走高，投资者静待包括推迟发布的1月就业报告在内的一系列经济数据出 炉。 10年期美国国债收益率上涨3个基点，报4.236%；30年期美国国债收益率上涨逾3个基点，报4.889%；2 年期美国国债收益率上涨逾1个基点，报3.506%。 新一周开盘，美国国债收益率走高，投资者静待包括推迟发布的1月就业报告在内的一系列经济数据出 炉。 10年期美国国债收益率上涨3个基点，报4.236%；30年期美国国债收益率上涨逾3个基点，报4.889%；2 年期美国国债收益率上涨逾1个基点，报3.506%。 1个基点等于0.01%，且债券收益率与价格呈反向变动关系。 投资者本周将迎来一系列经济数据的密集发布，其中多项数据因美国联邦政府部分停摆而推迟公布。这 其中包括原定于上周五发布的1月非农就业报告，美国劳工统计局现定于周三上午发布该报告。 据道琼斯调查的经济学家预测，1月美国非农就业人口或新增6万 ...

流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 供给高峰平稳落地，关注超长地方债品种利差压缩机会 glmszqdatemark 货币政策与流动性观点：春节将至，央行已经提供较多中期流动性呵护资金面， 供给冲击下资金面非常宽松，本周资金面扰动因素较上周较多，一方面政府债净 缴款上升至 6437 亿元、考虑调休后同业存单到期规模上升至 9719 亿元，另一 方面春节取现需求可能集中释放。得益于央行前期的买断式、MLF、国债买卖操 作，年初以来累计净投放 1.2 万亿元中长期资金，银行体系资金融出状况也不错， 预计资金面能够平稳过节。上周存单有再融资优势，因此利率继续低位运行，本 周开始关注提价情况。 地方债观点：受春节影响，2 月政府债供给节奏前置明显，春节前地方债总发行 9018 亿元，超过 1 月实际发行规模。预计截至 2 月 15 日，地方债累计发行 17652 亿元，其中超长地方债发行 9421 亿元，占比为 53%；置换债发行 5899 亿元 （2025 年同期 3781 亿元），对 7Y、10Y 置换债供给大幅增加。目前发行计划调 整后 2-3 月计划分别为 8149 亿元和 9609 亿元，预计 2 月实际供给在 1 ...

Core Insights - The recent cooling signals in the U.S. job market may lead to significant volatility in the foreign exchange and bond markets if the January non-farm payroll data deviates significantly from expectations [1] Group 1 - GivTrade strategist Hassan Fawaz highlights the potential impact of U.S. employment data on market volatility [1]

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研究报告称，当前美债市场处于数据韧性、财政忧虑与地缘风险的多 重博弈中，建议采取"短久期核心+陡峭化卫星"配置，核心持仓聚焦3-5年期投资级债券，获取相对稳健 票息收益抵御短期波动，同时严控10年期以上美债敞口，规避财政扩张引致的长端利率上行风险。 从近期走势来看美元指数(DXY)本周基本持平，从上周低点反弹了约1.6%，但在过去12个月中仍下跌了 近10%，整体弱势格局未变。在公司债市场，衡量风险的信用利差已从近期的低点有所上升，表明风险 定价更为谨慎，但相比一年来的高点仍处于更健康水平，反映出市场情绪虽有所降温，却远未到恐慌的 程度。 市场焦点转向本周即将公布的CPI与非农就业数据 美国1月ISM数据显示，制造业与服务业景气度同步回升，经济动能明显改善 本周金融市场聚焦推迟发布的1月非农和CPI数据。非农就业市场预计新增6万人(前值5万)，失业率预计 将持稳4.4%，但上周公布的ADP就业数据仅新增2.2万个岗位，远低于预期，显示劳动力市场仍处"低招 聘、低裁员"的停滞状态。此外，本次非农报告将包含年度就业数据修正，若历史数据下修，可能进一 步影响市场对美联储政策的预期。C ...

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收吕品：多空互加筹码，债市迎来 "验牌时刻" 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2026 年 02 月 09 日 分析师：戴志锋 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】医药祝嘉 琦：战略重视原料药板块，价格修复 +新业务增量；积极把握医药底部机 会》2026-02-04 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】军工陈鼎 如：Space X 再申请百万颗卫星，商 业航天关注度持续提升》2026-02-03 今日预览 今日重点>> 【固收】吕品：多空互加筹码，债市迎来"验牌时刻" 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收林 莎：如何在定位和投资上做好一只"固 收+"——基金四季报详细拆解》 2026-02-06 【食品饮料】何长天：快餐市场重焕生机，产品创新增时运营 研究分享>> 【固收】吕品：信用债类 ETF 持续净流出 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 今日重点 【固收】吕品：多空互加筹码，债市迎来"验牌时刻" 近两周以来，债市的行情不断修复。尤其是以二永、10 年内期限为代表的配置型品种来说，债 ...

Core Insights - The recent cooling signals in the U.S. labor market may lead to significant volatility in the foreign exchange and bond markets if the January non-farm payroll data deviates significantly from expectations [1] - A weaker-than-expected data release could reignite concerns about labor market momentum and strengthen expectations for monetary policy easing later this year, which would likely pressure the U.S. dollar [1] - Conversely, strong data performance could challenge these expectations, providing support for the dollar and pushing up yields [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that bond investment is straightforward, requiring appropriate duration selection and adjustments at key moments without excessive daily trading [1] - The current market shows a balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with the central bank conducting a 1130 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 380 billion yuan [3] - The interbank funding rates indicate slight fluctuations, with DR001 around 1.27% and DR007 around 1.54% [3] Group 2 - The stock market opened strongly, with a notable increase of over 1.4%, while the "stock-bond seesaw" effect was not significant, as long bond yields showed mixed movements [5] - The 10-year government bond yield initially opened at 1.805% but returned to the previous close of 1.802%, reflecting stable market sentiment [5] - The 10-year government bond yield managed to break through the 1.80% mark, attributed to ample liquidity in the market, contrasting with the lower rates of large time deposits currently around 1% [6]

新华社2月9日援引日本广播协会开票数据报道，在8日举行的日本众议院选举中，自民党获得316个议 席，执政联盟赢得过半数议席。我们此前在《2026年潜在的六只地缘"黑天鹅"》中曾指出，"亚太地区 机会主义主体的战略冒险"是2026年需关注的重要地缘风险之一。在1月27日的报告《日元日债稳住了 吗？——多极化进程中的日本资产逻辑嬗变》中，我们已就涉日地缘变化对日元、日债市场的影响展开 分析。结合此次日本大选的最新结果，现将相关内容整理如下，供投资者参考： 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：王涵论宏观 要点 日元日债稳住了吗？这个问题需要在全球秩序变化的大框架来讨论。年初以来，日本资本市场出现大幅 波动，日元、日债双双走弱，日元避险属性明显弱化。近期，在日本政府的干预与引导下，情绪面虽暂 获安抚，市场呈现企稳迹象。但我们认为，日元与日债此番呈现的结构性变化，其深层次原因不能简单 归因于短期经济波动，而应置于更宏大的叙事框架下理解——正如我们在去年底发布的报告兴证王涵 | 2026年展望：叙事映射！中所指出的，全球秩序正从单极化向多极化深刻演进，这一进程正在系统性地 重塑 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The bond market shows a differentiated pattern of "slight upward movement in the short - end and oscillatory downward movement in the long - end", with the long - end performing stronger than the short - end, influenced by central bank liquidity support, weak fundamental data, and equity market fluctuations [1][4][71] - The allocation demand for ultra - long - term government bonds and credit bonds may continue to be released, and the bond market may maintain an oscillatory and relatively strong trend [4][71] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest - rate Bonds 1.1 Liquidity Observation - From January 23 to January 30, 2026, the central bank conducted 29,365.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 16,177.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 13,188.00 billion yuan [1][15] - Most inter - bank capital prices rose, while DR001 decreased by 7.06BP to 1.3277%, and DR007 increased by 9.91BP to 1.5926%. Exchange capital prices rose, with overnight GC001 increasing by 25.40BP to 1.6290% and GC007 increasing by 3.30BP to 1.6140% [1][15] 1.2 Primary Market Issuance - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 6,242.75 billion yuan, with a total repayment of 2,437.60 billion yuan for matured bonds, and a net financing of 3,805.14 billion yuan [1][28] - There was no issuance of government bonds. Policy financial bonds raised 1,850.00 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance increased, raising 4,392.75 billion yuan [28] 1.3 Secondary Market Trading - Most government bond yields declined. From January 23 to January 30, 2026, the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year government bonds decreased by 2.09BP, 2.04BP, 1.82BP, and 1.86BP respectively to 1.4014%, 1.5761%, 1.6759%, and 1.8112%, while the 1 - year yield increased by 1.80BP to 1.2999%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 54.79BP to 51.13BP [1][34][35] - The yields of state - owned development bank bonds showed mixed trends. The 3 - year and 7 - year yields decreased by 0.88BP and 0.30BP respectively to 1.6922% and 1.9192%, while the 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 0.74BP, 0.15BP, and 1.30BP respectively to 1.5833%, 1.7953%, and 1.9865%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 39.76BP to 40.32BP [35] 2. Credit Bonds 2.1 Primary Market Issuance - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, 806 new credit bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 7,977.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,063.11 billion yuan from the previous period. The total repayment of credit bonds was 6,820.02 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1,157.75 billion yuan [2][46] - By bond issuance type, corporate bonds accounted for the largest proportion of the total number of credit bond issuances. By bond rating, AAA - rated bonds had an issuance scale of 2,824.82 billion yuan, accounting for 67.09% of the total issuance. In terms of maturity, credit bond issuance was mainly within 1 year. By industry, the construction industry had the largest number of bond issuances [2][49] 2.2 Secondary Market Trading - Most urban investment bond yields declined. From January 23 to January 30, 2026, the 5 - year yield of AA - rated urban investment bonds decreased by the largest margin of 6.32BP [2][56] - The yields of medium - and short - term notes showed mixed trends. The 3 - year yields of AA and AA - rated medium - and short - term notes decreased by the largest margin of 4.05BP [2][56] 2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [58] 3. Weekly Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 Most European and American Stock Indices Declined - From January 23 to January 30, 2026, most of the three major US stock indices declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.42% for the week, the S&P 500 index rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.17%, closing at 48,892.47, 6,939.03, and 23,461.82 points respectively [3][59] - Most of the three major European stock indices declined. The German DAX index fell 1.45% for the week, the French CAC40 index fell 0.20%, and the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.79%, closing at 24,538.81, 8,126.53, and 10,223.54 points respectively [3][60] - Asian - Pacific stock indices showed mixed trends. The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.97% for the week, closing at 53,322.85 points; the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44%, closing at 4,117.95 points; the South Korean Composite Index rose 4.70%, closing at 5,224.36 points; the Russian index rose 0.45%, closing at 1,157.53 points [60] 3.2 Most US Treasury Yields Declined - From January 23 to January 30, 2026, the 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year US Treasury yields decreased by 5.00BP, 7.00BP, 5.00BP, and 2.00BP respectively to 3.48%, 3.60%, 3.79%, and 4.01%, while the 10 - year yield increased by 2.00BP to 4.26%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 7.00BP to 78.00BP [62] 3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakened, and Non - US Currencies Strengthened - The US dollar index fell 0.40% for the week, and non - US currencies strengthened. From January 23 to January 30, 2026, the British pound against the US dollar rose 0.30% to 1.3686, the euro against the US dollar rose 0.20% to 1.1851, the US dollar against the Japanese yen fell 0.61% to 154.7745, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan fell 0.18% to 6.9478 [65] 3.4 Crude Oil Strengthened, and Gold Futures Declined - From January 23 to January 30, 2026, the COMEX gold futures price fell 1.14% for the week, closing at 4,879.60 US dollars per ounce; the London spot gold price rose 0.72%, closing at 4,981.85 US dollars per ounce. The Brent crude oil price rose 7.30% for the week, closing at 70.69 US dollars per barrel; the WTI crude oil price rose 6.78%, closing at 65.21 US dollars per barrel [67] 4. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt a portfolio of "medium - and short - duration credit bonds + long - duration interest - rate bonds" to enjoy the coupon income of credit bonds and hedge against inflation expectations through long - duration interest - rate bonds [4][71]