Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a dramatic reversal after a severe downturn, with significant interventions from the central bank and the Ministry of Finance stabilizing the situation [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 30-year government bond futures contract fell by 1.33%, leading to widespread selling in the credit bond market as funds faced redemption pressures [1]. - Following the central bank's liquidity injection of over 770 billion yuan within two days, the overnight rate dropped from 1.50% to 1.47%, alleviating market stress [3]. - The A-share market saw a shift as investors moved from equities to bonds, with the 30-year government bond futures rising by 0.28% as a result [3]. Group 2: Policy Interventions - The central bank conducted a 616 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40%, which was part of a larger liquidity support strategy [3]. - The Ministry of Finance's announcement of a 5.5 billion yuan treasury bond sale aimed to reassure the market and prevent a liquidity crisis from spreading [4]. Group 3: Investment Behavior - There was a significant increase in buying activity in the bond market, with the proportion of active buying transactions rising from 50% to 66% [6]. - Banks resumed purchasing government bonds, indicating confidence in the long-term value of the bond market, particularly at yields below 1.75% for 10-year bonds [6]. Group 4: Market Segmentation - While government bonds showed a collective rebound, the credit bond market exhibited divergence, with certain low-rated municipal bonds facing selling pressure [7]. - The 30-year government bond ETF saw a 0.28% increase, indicating a shift in market sentiment and attracting short-term investors [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the recent recovery, experts caution that the bond market remains in a "stabilization and rebalancing phase," with limited upside for long-term rates due to risk aversion [11]. - Defensive strategies are recommended for investors, focusing on shorter-duration government bonds and high-rated credit bonds to mitigate risks [14].

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced significant volatility, leading to increased pressure on fund managers, while the equity market continues to reach new highs [1][2] - On August 18, the bond market saw its most turbulent day of the month, with 10-year and 30-year treasury yields rising by 5 basis points and 6 basis points respectively, closing at 1.79% and 2.06% [1][2] - Fund managers are feeling unprecedented pressure due to declining net values of bond funds amidst rising equity fund returns, leading to low investor sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - The recent strong performance of the equity market contrasts sharply with the weakness in the bond market, particularly in long-term bonds, while short-term bonds remain relatively stable [3] - The current adjustment in the bond market is driven more by expectations rather than changes in the funding environment, with a potential shift from deflation to mild inflation impacting bond asset attractiveness [3] - A lack of investment from smaller banks and limited redemption willingness from institutional clients are contributing factors to the bond market's pressure [3] Group 3 - Fund managers are actively seeking strategies to cope with market fluctuations, maintaining a neutral to slightly high duration while focusing on shorter-term rates less affected by steepening yield curves [3]

存量市场特征 超长信用债收益回撤。本周（2025.8.11-2025.8.15，下同）市场风险偏好再度切换，债市行情反转，超长信用债亦被 波及。与上周相比，存量超长信用债收益率出现回撤，2.2%-2.3%收益率的超长信用债只数明显增长。 一级发行情况 超长信用新债认购续升。本周超长信用新债发行规模合计 159.7 亿，供给量基本持平上周。在新债发行利率方面，本 周超长城投新债发行利率均值上行至 2.6%，超长产业新债票面则在 2.3%附近徘徊。在近期波动率偏高的债市环境中， 超长信用新债一级定价与现券市场略有偏离，这也或是近两周该品种新债认购热度持续上升的原因。 二级成交表现 长债指数普跌。债市又一轮急跌，本周 10 年以上国债指数跌幅高达 1.64%，10 年以上 AA+信用债指数跌幅虽小于利率 长债，但绝对值也超过 0.5%。 超长信用债成交情绪萎靡。在信用债资产中，超长信用债跌势难控，品种流动性明显弱化，本周 10 年以上产业债成 交笔数已下降至不足 40 笔，最为活跃的 7-10 年产业债，成交量相比 7 月中旬也缩减近半。成交收益方面，7-10 年信 用长债收益回调幅度大于 6bp，10 年以上普信 ...

新华财经上海8月20日电（张天源）在上周短暂"脱敏"之后，本周资本市场再次跟随"股债跷跷板"效应而波动。8月20日，权益市场午后强劲反弹，沪指再创 十年新高，与此同时，债市承压，主要利率债收益率多数上行。业内人士认为，债市短期交易逻辑或已切换，从以往的"基本面+流动性"主导逻辑转向"大类 资产配置"逻辑。 "股债跷跷板"效应再现 债市方面，国债期货多数收跌，30年期主力合约跌0.35%报116.050元，10年期主力合约跌0.18%报107.855元，5年期主力合约跌0.10%报105.425元。银行间主 要利率债收益率多数上行，截至发稿，10年期国债"25付息国债11"上行1.4个基点报1.78%，5年期国债"25付息国债03"上行1.25个基点报1.625%。 债市交易逻辑或已切换 多位业内人士表示，机构行为和大类资产比价效应交织下，债市短期交易逻辑或已切换，从以往的"基本面+流动性"主导逻辑转向"大类资产配置"逻辑。 天风证券固收首席分析师谭逸鸣指出，尽管 7 月经济数据不及预期，新增信贷转负，资金利率维持低位，央行开展买断式逆回购操作等，但债市表现仍然承 压，表明当前的主导逻辑并非基本面或资金面，而是 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current investment strategy suggests focusing on rebound opportunities, with priority given to 25T5, 230023, and 250215 which have undergone significant adjustments [1][13] - The 10-year Guokai new and old bond yields are inverted, and 250215 is expected to become the main bond in the short term, presenting good holding odds [1][11] - In the 10-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond's excess value is not strong; while in the 30-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond shows stronger performance [13][18] - Since May this year, the upward range of Guokai bonds has been larger than that of Treasury bonds, and if interest rates continue to rise, the spread of the 10-year variety is likely to widen further [3][34] 3. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 Individual Bond Trend Differences - On August 19, 2025, the yields of long-term bonds in the bond market oscillated stronger overall. The yield of the main bond 250210 declined more than that of the new bond 250215, and the yields of the second-new and new bonds were inverted [6] - The intraday buying power of 250210 was significantly stronger than that of 250215, possibly due to the difference in trading volume. The current 250210 - 250215 spread is around -1BP [11] 1.2 Analysis of Recent Main Bond Trends and Bond Selection Considerations - For 10-year Guokai bonds, recent main bond trends have been relatively better. The factors influencing individual bond trends include trading power and bond cost-effectiveness [13] - In the 10-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond 250011 has a relatively weaker trend, and the influence of individual bond cost-effectiveness is relatively stronger [14] - In the 30-year Treasury bond segment, the main bond 2500005 has a stronger trend. The current 2500005 - 2500002 spread is around 6 - 7BP [18] - In the medium and short-term segment, for 3 - 5-year interest rate bonds, 240020 and 250003 can be considered for odds, and 250203 and 250208 for trading; floating-rate bonds can focus on 25 Nongfa Qingfa 09 [23] 1.3 Observation of Recent Variety Spread Trends - Since May this year, the upward range of Guokai bonds has been larger than that of Treasury bonds. The spread of 5-year Guokai bonds and Treasury bonds has rapidly increased from around 4BP to 15BP, and the 10-year variety from around 5BP to around 12BP [34] - In the past 5 years, during each interest rate upward cycle, the spread between Guokai bonds and Treasury bonds has widened significantly. If interest rates continue to rise, the spread of the 10-year variety is likely to widen further [34]

Investment Rating of the Report There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the bond custody data for July 2025, indicating that the total bond custody increased month - on - month, with different trends among various bond types and institutions. The leverage ratio of the bond market decreased month - on - month due to the seasonal reduction of the repurchase bond balance [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased month - on - month. As of the end of July 2025, the combined bond custody of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House was 173.03 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 1.74 trillion yuan, 0.45 trillion yuan more than the month - on - month increase at the end of June [1][10]. - The custody of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased month - on - month, while the custody of inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) decreased. In July 2025, the custody of interest - rate bonds was 118.91 trillion yuan, accounting for 68.72% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan; the custody of credit bonds was 18.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.80%, with a net increase of 0.18 trillion yuan; the custody of non - policy financial bonds was 12.78 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.39%, with a net increase of 0.41 trillion yuan; the custody of ICDs was 20.74 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.99%, with a net decrease of 0.37 trillion yuan [1][10]. 2. Bond Holder Structure and Changes 2.1 Changes in Custody by Institution Month - on - Month - The custody of major bonds by various institutions in the bond market showed differentiation this month. Allocation accounts increased their custody, while trading accounts and overseas institutions decreased theirs. Specifically, policy banks, insurance institutions, and credit unions increased their holdings of major bonds across the board; commercial banks increased their holdings of major interest - rate and credit products but continued to reduce their holdings of ICDs; securities companies increased their holdings of ICDs but reduced their holdings of major interest - rate and credit products; non - legal entity products continued to increase their holdings of major credit products but reduced their holdings of major interest - rate products and ICDs; overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of major bonds across the board [2][24]. - In July, the "anti - involution" policy boosted the equity and commodity markets. Under the influence of factors such as the stock - bond seesaw, the bond market significantly corrected. Trading accounts such as securities and broad - based funds quickly took profits and sold, while allocation accounts such as commercial banks and insurance companies bought significantly, acting as a "stabilizer" for the bond market [24]. 2.2 Changes in Custody by Bond Type Month - on - Month - Treasury bond custody continued to increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [2][26]. - Local government bond custody continued to increase this month, and commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings [2][26]. - Policy - financial bond custody continued to increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [2][26]. - ICD custody continued to decrease this month, with commercial banks being the main sellers. The continuous decline in ICD custody was mainly due to the slowdown in issuance and relatively large maturity of existing bonds [2][26]. - Corporate bond custody continued to decrease this month, with non - legal entity products being the main sellers [2][29]. - Medium - term note custody continued to increase this month, and non - legal entity products continued to significantly increase their holdings [2][29]. - Short - term and super - short - term financing custody turned to an increase this month, with commercial banks being the main buyers [29]. - Non - publicly - oriented instrument custody continued to decrease this month, with non - legal entity products being the main sellers [30]. 2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bonds - As of the end of July 2025, the holder structure of major bonds varied. For example, commercial banks were the largest holders of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds, while non - legal entity products were the largest holders of medium - term notes, short - term and super - short - term financing, and ICDs [33][34][37]. 3. Observation of Bond Market Leverage Ratio - The balance of bonds to be repurchased decreased seasonally, and the bond market leverage ratio decreased month - on - month. As of the end of July 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - style pledged repos was 110,279.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 11,233.91 billion yuan month - on - month. The leverage ratio was 106.81%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points month - on - month and 0.24 percentage points year - on - year [3][48].

站在 2025 年的投资十字路口，全球资本市场正在经历结构性变革。美联储维持 4.25% 基准利率的政策 框架下，投资者愈发重视资产组合的稳健性与成长性平衡。本文通过 20 组特色投资标的分析，揭示三 类核心资产的配置逻辑。 股票市场结构性机会凸显 动态平衡配置策略 建议采取 "核心 + 卫星" 配置：60% 基础仓位配置 (9899.HK/C5M8Q) 等宽基 ETF，20% 配置 (9899.HK/G2H7J) 高评级公司债，10% 持有黄金 ETF（如9899.HK/L4P9T），剩余 10% 布局 (9899.HK/Z9X3R) 等前沿科技股。当 VIX 指数突破 25 时，可将黄金配置提升至 15% 并减持高估值品种 （类似9899.HK/K8M2S）。 当前市场环境下，投资者需在 (9899.HK/R3T6Y) 等防御性资产和 (9899.HK/U8I2O) 等成长标的间寻求 平衡。建议每月评估组合波动率，当 30 日年化波动超 18% 时启动再平衡机制，利用 (9899.HK/Y7H1J) 等量化对冲工具降低风险敞口。 以 (9899.HK/3L8P9) 为代表的智能制造企业，凭借 AI 质检系 ...

2025 年 8 月的国际资本市场呈现复杂多变的格局。随着美联储利率政策步入稳定期，三大主流投资品 类 —— 股票、债券、黄金均展现出独特走势。本文结合最新市场数据，梳理当前投资市场脉络。 在港股市场，生物医药板块延续强势表现。(1865.HK/7th) 作为基因编辑领域龙头，单周涨幅达 12.3% 创年内新高。同属医疗赛道的 (1865.HK/9nd) 凭借 AI 辅助诊断系统获欧盟认证，股价突破 50 港元关 口。值得关注的还有新晋上市的新能源企业 (1865.HK/3rd)，其钠离子电池量产进度超预期，吸引北水 资金持续流入。 债券市场呈现两极分化态势。美国十年期国债收益率维持在 3.2%-3.5% 区间震荡，而企业债市场出现明 显分层。高评级债券中 (1865.HK/8th) 发行的绿色债券超额认购达 5.7 倍，票面利率 4.15% 低于市场预 期。相比之下 (1865.HK/5ed) 的垃圾债收益率攀升至 9.8%，反映市场对房地产行业的持续担忧。 黄金价格突破每盎司 2200 美元大关，创历史新高。全球央行增持储备趋势未改，其中 (1865.HK/1st) 旗 下金矿宣布探明储量增加 28%，推 ...

Group 1: Structural Changes in Financial Markets - The global financial market is undergoing structural changes driven by the dual forces of the AI computing power revolution and the carbon neutrality process [1] - Investors are facing valuation reconstruction of emerging tech stocks and yield fluctuations in traditional industry bonds, necessitating the construction of more forward-looking investment portfolios [1] Group 2: Opportunities in the Stock Market - In the tech sector, quantum computing companies have achieved an average increase of 187% since the beginning of the year [2] - In the consumer sector, smart wearable device manufacturers have seen a 340% year-on-year increase in order volume due to breakthroughs in brain-computer interface technology [2] - Solid-state battery companies in the new energy industry have received significant funding from national development funds, amounting to billions [2] Group 3: Safe Haven Value in the Bond Market - Asian dollar bonds have become a safe haven for funds amid expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [3] - A 10-year infrastructure bond issued by a specific company has a current yield of 5.8%, which is significantly higher than the same-rated U.S. Treasury bonds by 120 basis points [3] - The green bond sector has seen carbon neutrality special bonds exceed $50 billion, benefiting from tax incentives and liquidity premiums [3] Group 4: Strategic Positioning of Gold Assets - Geopolitical risks have increased the value of gold allocations, despite digital currencies diverting some safe-haven demand [4] - A specific gold ETF has reached a record high holding of 2,150 tons [4] - Digital gold certificate products have achieved T+0 cross-border settlement with an average daily trading volume exceeding $2 billion [4] - An asset allocation model suggests a growth-oriented portfolio with a 55:30:15 allocation in stocks, bonds, and gold, focusing on high-growth tech stocks and short-duration bonds for hedging [4] - Conservative investors can maintain over 25% in safe-haven positions through gold derivatives [4] Group 5: Market Volatility and Risk Control - Intelligent risk control system providers have seen valuation increases, with their Bayesian network warning model capable of predicting over 80% of price movements 36 hours in advance [5] - The launch of regulatory technology platforms is expected to enhance market transparency, creating a better environment for rational investment [5]

机构认为，近日债基赎回压力有所增加，短期内债市难明显回暖，多数时间预计只能继续"看股做债"。 缴税走款影响持续，但央行公开市场逆回购操作已开始加力，而且8月非缴税大月，后续几日资金料出 现缓解之势。 【行情跟踪】 新华财经北京8月20日电 债市周三（8月20日）再度回调，期现券早间持稳、午后震荡走弱，国债期货 主力合约多数收跌，银行间现券收益率午后普遍转为上行；公开市场单日净投放4975亿元，资金利率延 续上行。 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.35%报116.050，10年期主力合约跌0.18%报107.855，5年 期主力合约跌0.10%报105.425，2年期主力合约持平于102.326。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间8月19日，10年期法债收益率跌1.1BP报3.434%，10年期德债收益率跌1.3BP 报2.747%，10年期意债收益率跌0.1BP报3.553%，10年期西债收益率跌0.6BP报3.320%。其他市场方 面，10年期英债收益率涨0.3BP报4.738%。 【一级市场】 财政部2期国债中标收益率均低于中债估值。财政部91天、5年期国债加权中标收益率分别为1.2715%、 1.5 ...