Core Viewpoint - China's green finance is undergoing a significant transition, shifting from a focus on quantity to efficiency and from policy-driven to mechanism-driven growth [2] Group 1: Green Credit - Green credit remains the core and stable pillar of China's green finance system, with a projected balance of approximately 43.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting an 18.9% increase from 36.6 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 [3][6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, green loans contributed 6.47 trillion yuan to the total loan increment, accounting for 43.9% of the total loan growth, indicating a shift from a temporary policy tool to a normalized direction for bank lending [6] Group 2: Green Bonds - The green bond market has shown a significant recovery in 2025, with a cumulative issuance of approximately 914.9 billion yuan from January to November, surpassing the total of 681.4 billion yuan for 2024 and nearing the historical high of 2022 [7] - Financial institutions dominate the green bond issuance, with green financial bonds accounting for about 492.3 billion yuan, focusing on clean energy, green infrastructure, and low-carbon transition projects [7] Group 3: Carbon Market - As of November 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of the national carbon market reached 818 million tons, with a total transaction value of 54.575 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.81% year-on-year increase in transaction volume for 2025 [10] - The carbon market is characterized by stable transaction volumes but a downward trend in prices, indicating a "stable volume, weak price" market feature [10] Group 4: Strategic Transition - The period from 2024 to 2025 is identified as a critical transition point from "growth in quantity" to "optimization in structure" for green finance, with a shift in policy focus towards the quality of fund allocation, emission reduction performance, and risk constraints [13] - By 2026, green finance is expected to further establish its "infrastructure-type" position within the financial system, transitioning from thematic investments to long-term asset allocations [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the recent rise in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is not merely a reaction to cooling inflation but reflects a significant shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment towards systemic risk [1][7]. - The December U.S. core CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, maintaining a low range not seen in four years, indicating a long-term trend of declining inflation [1]. - Despite the positive inflation data, the Federal Funds rate futures did not show a drastic drop, suggesting that good news on inflation alone is insufficient to influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [3]. Group 2 - The bond market's 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained around 4.17%, indicating a persistent high-rate environment rather than a sign of easing monetary policy [5]. - In a challenging environment with a strong dollar and flat yields, spot gold prices surged past $4,600, while silver reached $89, with the gold-silver ratio narrowing to a new low not seen in over a decade [5]. - Analysts suggest that the traditional model of "real interest rates driving gold prices" is inadequate to explain the current situation, as gold is increasingly viewed as a hedge against systemic risk rather than just inflation [7]. Group 3 - The rise in gold prices is seen as a systematic reflection of long-term uncertainties rather than a mere emotional response to market conditions [9]. - Understanding why gold remains strong in a dollar-negative environment is deemed more important than focusing on specific price points, emphasizing the need for rational trading strategies in a new era where good news does not automatically lead to easing [9].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations in 2025, with a shift in investor preference towards equities anticipated for 2026 due to declining risk premiums and supportive macroeconomic policies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The bond market has seen a strong performance over the past four years, primarily due to a lack of attractive returns in the equity market, leading investors to favor lower-risk bond assets [2]. - A significant drop in risk premiums indicates a rising risk appetite among investors, which is likely to result in a decline in bond prices and an increase in stock market performance [2]. - The central economic work conference has set a positive tone for macroeconomic policies, emphasizing proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies, which are expected to enhance investor sentiment towards economic recovery [2]. Group 2: Investor Strategies - Investors should adjust their strategies in light of potential economic recovery, focusing on early indicators of corporate profitability such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3]. - Recommendations for bond investors include reducing duration by holding shorter-duration bonds and increasing exposure to equity-linked products like convertible bond funds and secondary bond funds to enhance returns [3]. - In the current interest rate environment, the choice between pure bond funds, convertible bond funds, and ETFs tracking government and technology innovation bonds should be based on the investor's outlook on interest rates and economic conditions [4][5]. Group 3: Product Insights - Pure bond funds are focused solely on bond assets, requiring careful attention to the fund manager's ability to adjust the portfolio based on credit and interest rate research [4]. - Government bond ETFs track government bond indices and are sensitive to interest rate changes, while technology innovation bonds carry additional credit risks, potentially offering higher returns [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing significant yield increases, with the 20-year government bond yield reaching a historic high of 3.165% and the 10-year yield at 2.18%, the highest since February 1999, amid speculation regarding the dissolution of the House of Representatives and upcoming elections [1] Group 1 - The yield on newly issued 20-year Japanese government bonds has risen to 3.165%, marking a historical peak [1] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has increased to 2.18%, the highest level since February 1999 [1] - Speculation surrounding the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the potential for elections is exerting pressure on the market, leading to weaker trends in Japanese government bond futures [1]

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.180, UK 4.398, France 3.521, Germany 2.846, Italy 3.478, Spain 3.241, Switzerland 0.238, Greece 3.339, Japan 2.165, Brazil 6.217, China 1.849, Australia 4.708, New Zealand 4.430 [1] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.535, UK 3.651, Germany 2.091, Japan 1.156, Italy 2.192, China (1Y yield) 1.238, Australia 4.035 [1] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.374, South Africa zar 16.402, Korean won 1475.800, Thai baht 31.470, Malaysian ringgit 4.058 [1] - The latest values of on - shore RMB 6.978, off - shore RMB 6.974, RMB central parity rate 7.010, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.853 [1] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6963.740, Dow Jones Industrial Index 49191.990, Nasdaq 23709.870, Mexican stock index 66337.420, UK stock index 10137.350, France CAC 8347.200, Germany DAX 25420.660, Spanish stock index 17687.100, Japanese Nikkei 53549.160, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 26848.470, Shanghai Composite Index 4138.758, Taiwan stock index 30707.220, Korean stock index 4692.640, Indian stock index 8948.303, Thai stock index 1235.300, Malaysian stock index 1708.200, Australian stock index 9138.494, emerging - economy stock index 1472.290 [1] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3551.450, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 266.768, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.510, US high - yield credit - bond index 2929.010, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 412.600, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1827.282 [1] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4138.76, down 0.64%; CSI 300 closing price 4761.03, down 0.60%; SSE 50 closing price 3132.93, down 0.34%; ChiNext closing price 3321.89, down 1.96%; CSI 500 closing price 8143.28, down 1.28% [2] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.46 with a - 0.02环比 change, SSE 50 is 12.06 with a 0.02环比 change, CSI 500 is 36.99 with a - 0.30环比 change, S&P 500 is 27.81 with a - 0.06环比 change, Germany DAX is 19.72 with a 0.01环比 change [2] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.58 with a 0.01环比 change, Germany DAX is 2.22 with a - 0.01环比 change [2] - Fund flow: The latest value of A - share fund flow is - 1924.09, main - board is - 1247.76, ChiNext is - 520.43, CSI 300 is - 396.75; the 5 - day average values are - 535.55, - 523.98, - 16.96, - 212.50 respectively [2] Group 3: Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: The latest transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 36509.85 with a 496.09环比 change, CSI 300 is 8010.55 with a 11.01环比 change, SSE 50 is 1888.53 with a - 9.49环比 change, small - and - medium - sized board is 7490.48 with a 266.95环比 change, ChiNext is 10777.19 with a - 81.07环比 change [3] - Main contract basis: IF basis is - 2.43 with a - 0.05% amplitude, IH basis is 4.67 with a 0.15% amplitude, IC basis is - 12.08 with a - 0.15% amplitude [3] - Treasury futures: T2303 closing price is 107.85 with 0.00% change, TF2303 closing price is 105.63 with 0.00% change, T2306 closing price is 107.78 with 0.02% change, TF2306 closing price is 105.61 with - 0.01% change [3] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.4719% with a - 5.00 BP daily change, R007 is 1.5746% with a 5.00 BP daily change, SHIBOR - 3M is 1.6000% with a 0.00 BP daily change [3]

责任编辑：王永生 日本5年期国债收益率升至2000年该期限债券首次发行以来的最高水平，有关首相高市早苗计划提前举 行选举的报道加剧市场对该国财政状况的担忧。5年期收益率上升1.5个基点至1.615%。 日本5年期国债收益率升至2000年该期限债券首次发行以来的最高水平，有关首相高市早苗计划提前举 行选举的报道加剧市场对该国财政状况的担忧。5年期收益率上升1.5个基点至1.615%。 责任编辑：王永生 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 2026 年 01 月 14 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 重要点评 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 14 日 浙商早知道 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 【浙商固收 胡建文】债券市场专题研究：同业存单利率或仍将"上下两难"——20260112 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/周向昉/陈红】机械设备 行业深度：等静压设备行业深度： 固态电池核心增量环 节——20260111 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：1 月 13 日上证指数下跌 0.64%，沪深 300 下跌 0.6%，科创 50 下跌 2.8%，中证 1000 下跌 1.84%，创业板指 下跌 1.96%，恒生指数上涨 0.9%。 行业：1 月 13 日表现最好的行业分别是石油石化（+1.62%)、医药生物（+1.21%)、有色金属（+0.91%)、传媒（+0.67%)、 银行（+0.65%)，表现最差的行业分别是国防军工（-5.5%)、电子（-3.3%)、通信（-2.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic bond market has shown a clear differentiation after the New Year, with interest rate bonds experiencing upward pressure on yields while credit bonds have seen yields decline, creating a "weak interest rate, strong credit" scenario [1] Group 1: Credit Bonds Performance - Credit bonds have strengthened due to increased demand from institutional investors, with significant net purchases observed from various asset management institutions, including 49.3 billion yuan from wealth management, 36.8 billion yuan from insurance, and 206.6 billion yuan from money market funds between January 4 and 9 [3] - The demand for credit bonds is supported by favorable policy changes, such as the revised regulations on redemption fees for bond funds, which have alleviated redemption pressures that had been present since September 2025 [3] - The inherent advantages of credit bonds in a low-interest-rate environment have made them attractive as safe assets for investors [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Bonds Performance - Interest rate bonds have weakened due to supply pressures and a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with a significant portion of government bonds scheduled for issuance in January being long-term, which has directly suppressed yields [4] - The strong performance of the equity market post-New Year has led to a diversion of funds away from the bond market, exacerbating the decline in interest rate bonds [4] - Marginal improvements in the economic fundamentals, such as a rebound in the manufacturing PMI to 50.1% in December 2025, have weakened the rationale for investing in bonds, as inflation expectations rise [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The short-term differentiation in the bond market is expected to continue, with credit bonds likely to remain dominant in the near term [6] - Analysts predict that the market may mirror the early 2025 trends, with potential for a temporary recovery in interest rates, but long-term challenges remain due to rising inflation and debt management pressures [7] - Investment strategies should focus on high-yield, short to medium-term credit bonds, particularly those rated AA or above, while being cautious of low-rated long-duration bonds due to potential widening of credit spreads [8]

第 538 期 2026-01-13 焦点关注 河南省政府国资委与河南能源、中国平煤神马集团签署增资协议 1月13日，平煤股份公告，收到控股股东中国平煤神马集团书面通知，河南省政府国资委与河南能源集 团、中国平煤神马集团于1月13日正式签署《中国平煤神马控股集团有限公司增资协议》。 根据协议约定，河南省政府国资委以其持有的河南能源集团100%股权，按照经评估的公允价值对中国 平煤神马集团增资。增资完成后，河南能源集团将成为中国平煤神马集团的全资子公司。 国债期货多数上涨 1月13日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.28%报111.35元，10年期主力合约涨0.06%报 107.85元，5年期主力合约涨0.04%报105.625元，2年期主力合约持平于102.33元。 银行间主要利率债收益率窄幅波动，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率持平报1.964%，10年期国债"25附 息国债16"收益率下行0.75BP报1.8625%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.05BP报 2.2915%。 宏观动态 央行开展3586亿元7天期逆回购操作，净投放3424亿元 公开市场方面，央行公告称， ...

在邓志坚看来，2026年，科技与医疗健康两大赛道将凭借其在全球AI应用与民生需求中的核心驱动地位，仍是资产布局的 关键锚点。与此同时，投资级债券与黄金等传统避险资产的配置价值不容忽视，其在波动环境下的风险缓释作用，将有效增强 投资组合的整体抗风险韧性。 在集中度方面，当前美股前五大科技股市值占美股总市值比重达28%，高于2000年的21%，但当前科技企业的平均股权回 报率远高于过往。盈利端的坚实支撑使得投资者即便面对股价高位，也未出现恐慌性抛售，这也进一步印证了科技板块的配置 价值。 本报记者 杨洁 "2026年，我们坚持看好科技和医疗等具有长期增长趋势的行业之外，我们也建议增持亚洲区优质股、成熟市场投资级别 债券和黄金，以分散成长型资产的风险。而且，在此基础上，我们将更加重视股市对冲策略。"邓志坚说。 1月11日，星展银行举办"2026年一季度投资策略展望"专题活动，星展银行（中国）高级投资策略师邓志坚在会上解读了 新一年全球市场脉动，并剖析投资机遇与挑战。 （编辑 张昕） "回顾2025年，我们一直在强调世界格局正在转变。当面对挑战的时候，我们必须要坚持投资于环球发展中最关键的行业 和优质的核心资产。因为 ...