Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 77.52 billion RMB in 2025, a decrease of 5.25% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 209 million RMB, which represents a significant narrowing of losses by 95.51% compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The improvement in product variety and effective cost control contributed to the reduction in losses, although asset impairment provisions impacted net profit, which was below expectations [1][2]. - The outlook for the industry is optimistic, with expectations of a recovery in industry conditions and continued adjustments in the company's profit structure, leading to a potential rebound in profitability [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company experienced a decline in revenue primarily due to falling average selling prices of steel, despite benefiting from a 1.8% increase in iron ore index prices and a 13.9% decrease in coke prices [2]. - Operating costs decreased by 11.12% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 5.31%, which is an increase of 6.26 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company produced 19.01 million tons of pig iron, an increase of 5.14% year-on-year, while crude steel production decreased by 5.75% to 18.69 million tons [2]. Industry Outlook - The steel industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability driven by supply constraints and policy support, with the potential for improved margins as the industry moves into a recovery cycle [3]. - The company is optimizing its product structure and increasing steel exports, which, combined with cost control measures, is expected to enhance profitability [3]. Future Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2026 to 2028 are estimated at 1.30 billion RMB, 1.99 billion RMB, and 2.23 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 722.11% and 53.27% for 2026 and 2027 [4][10]. - The book value per share (BVPS) is projected to be 3.23 RMB, 3.44 RMB, and 3.65 RMB for the years 2026 to 2028 [4][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report states that geopolitical and raw material factors are the main reasons, and there is unlikely to be a trend - based market for steel products [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price and Basis**: The report presents season - based price charts of Shanghai 20mm threaded steel and 4.75mm hot - rolled coil, as well as basis season charts of threaded steel 05 contract and hot - rolled coil 05 contract in Shanghai [6][8]. - **Production**: It shows monthly production data of pig iron and crude steel from the National Bureau of Statistics, daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills, and capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces [20][27]. - **Import and Export**: There are charts of steel and billet import quantities, as well as monthly export values of steel and billet [29][59]. - **Demand and Inventory**: It includes weekly apparent demand and lunar total inventory charts of five major steel products, threaded steel, and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of billets in the Tangshan area [37][42][41][56]. 3.2 April Market Outlook - **Profit**: The report provides charts of cash profits of East China electric furnaces (flat - rate electricity) and North China threaded steel long - process, as well as weekly production charts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil [67][71]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: It shows data on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, land transaction area of 100 large and medium - sized cities, and other economic indicators [73][76]. - **Real Estate Indicators**: There are charts of year - on - year growth rate of monthly sales area of commercial housing, year - on - year growth rate of new housing starts, year - on - year growth rate of housing completion area, and year - on - year growth rate of real estate development funds [79][85]. - **Infrastructure Indicators**: It presents data on the issuance amount of local government special bonds, loan demand index for infrastructure, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment, and month - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment [103][106]. - **Manufacturing Indicators**: The report includes charts of various sub - items of PMI, manufacturing PMI, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits, and month - on - year growth rate of industrial added value [118][120]. - **Industry - Specific Production**: It shows monthly production data of Chinese automobiles, year - on - year growth rate of civil steel ship production, monthly production of Chinese excavators, and monthly production of Chinese metal containers [130][136].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillation [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2][3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [4][5] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [6] Core Views - Steel: The market sentiment is poor, and steel prices maintain an oscillatory trend. The current price fluctuations mainly depend on raw material prices, and the cost support from steel mills is strong [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price shows relative strength in the short - term, but in the long - term, a large release of liquidity may cause the price to fall. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and negotiation progress [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the prices are oscillating. The coke market is supported by coking coal costs, and attention should be paid to international situations, energy prices, and seasonal demand for finished products [4][5]. - Thermal Coal: The demand is stable, and the coal price in the production area is running strongly. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3128 yuan/ton and 3305 yuan/ton respectively. The spot trading is generally weak, with low - price trading being acceptable. The overall basis has slightly expanded, and the national building materials trading volume is 89110 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply - demand of building materials has seasonally improved, and the inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. The production and sales of plates have significantly improved, but the inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the price. The price fluctuations mainly depend on raw material prices, and the cost support from steel mills is strong due to rising energy prices [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillatory, and no strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The futures price of iron ore has slightly rebounded. The spot trading volume at the main ports has decreased by 19.33% to 68.97 tons, while the trading volume of forward - looking spot has increased by 96.15% to 51 tons [2]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume at 47 ports and 45 ports has slightly increased. The blast furnaces are being restarted as planned, and the molten iron output is rising. The port inventory is still at a historical high. In the short - term, the iron ore price is relatively strong, but in the long - term, a large release of liquidity may cause the price to fall [2]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillatory, and no strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the coking coal and coke futures are oscillating. The coke spot market is supported by coking coal costs, but the terminal's high - price acceptance is weak, and the trading at the port has weakened. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is stable at around 1160 - 1170 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: After the Two Sessions, coal mines in the production area are resuming production steadily. The import of seaborne coal is tight due to the inverted price difference. The profit of coke by - products has increased, and the coke profit is at a good level. Attention should be paid to international situations, energy prices, and seasonal demand for finished products [4][5]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke trading are oscillatory, and no strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: The coal price in the main production areas is running strongly. The demand from metallurgy and chemical industries is good, and the price at the port and for external purchases has increased. The coal mine inventory is low, and the market sentiment is positive. The port market is also strong, with increased non - power demand and high arrival costs. The import coal market is also strong, with high costs [6]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The downstream demand is good, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [6]. - Strategy: No strategy is provided [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current situation between the US and Iran remains in the stage of "pressuring while negotiating", with the risk of escalation still not eliminated. All kinds of assets are expected to maintain high volatility in the short - term. The A - share market is in an oscillating stage, and the bond market is expected to oscillate. Precious metals, copper, and other commodities will be affected by the US - Iran situation and macro - factors, and most of them are expected to show an oscillating trend [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities to April 6, and the US is still preparing more aggressive military options. The price of Brent crude oil has risen to $100, investors' concerns about rising oil prices and persistent inflation have intensified, the 10Y US Treasury bond yield has returned to 4.4%, the US dollar index has risen to 99.9, and risk assets have fallen under pressure [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Thursday. The bond market continued to be warm, but long - term interest rates were constrained. Pay attention to whether the Middle - East situation will actually escalate and subsequent turning points, as well as China's industrial enterprise profits from January to February [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices fell again on Thursday. The decline was mainly affected by the deadlock in the US - Iran cease - fire negotiations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and the large - scale reduction of gold reserves by the Turkish central bank. The US - Iran negotiation is likely to enter a long - term stalemate, and precious metals will continue to adjust [4][5]. Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper weakened in an oscillating manner. The US - Iran conflict is still uncertain, and the Fed governor's hawkish stance has put pressure on risk assets. The supply of copper mines is tightening, global inventories are falling from a high level, and domestic terminal consumption is slowly recovering. Copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,725 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. The difference in the US - Iran peace agreement is huge, and the expectation of electrolytic aluminum production cuts in the Middle - East has strengthened again. The overseas aluminum ingot spot is in short supply. The domestic aluminum inventory is approaching the inflection point, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate in a range [8][9]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,931 yuan/ton, down 1.15%. Recently, the profit from delivery is high, and the spot is constantly being sent to the delivery warehouse. The supply of bauxite may be reduced, and the production cost of alumina may rise slightly. In the short - term, the fundamentals of alumina are favorable, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level, but it will be under pressure in the long - term [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22,760 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. The profit of cast aluminum has narrowed, and the supply increase is limited. The consumption recovery is less than expected, and the overall supply - demand is in a stalemate. Cast aluminum is expected to oscillate in a range [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc first declined and then rose during the day and oscillated strongly at night. The domestic consumption is moderately recovering, and the social inventory has fallen below 250,000 tons. The raw material supply is tightening, which restricts the upside space of processing fees. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated weakly during the day and horizontally at night. The raw material supply is still tight, the downstream battery enterprises' procurement has improved, and the social inventory has continued to decline. However, the demand improvement is limited, and lead prices are expected to run in a low - level range [13]. Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated weakly during the day and horizontally at night. The US - Iran situation is still tense, the fundamentals are stable, the supply of tin mines is slowly recovering, and the demand recovery is limited. Tin prices are expected to hover around 350,000 yuan in the short - term [14]. Nickel - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated and declined. The Fed governor's hawkish stance has put pressure on risk assets. The Indonesian government plans to modify the nickel ore HPM benchmark pricing, and the cost side has strong support. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with limited adjustment space [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 157,200 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The uncertainty of the US - Iran war situation is strong, and the lithium carbonate market lacks a clear direction. The export ban on lithium concentrate in Zimbabwe is difficult to relax in the short - term, which may cause a phased supply - demand mismatch. The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate at a high level [17]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated. The supply of five major steel products decreased slightly week - on - week, the total inventory decreased, and the apparent demand continued to rise. The terminal demand is recovering, and steel prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the realization of demand [18]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated. The current steel mill production is normal, the overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased week - on - week, and the port inventory is expected to decline. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [19]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Thursday, double - coking futures oscillated and adjusted. The spot market sentiment is positive, the upstream coal mine production is stable with a slight increase, the coke production rhythm is accelerating, and the downstream demand is good. Double - coking prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [20][21]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 0.27%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 0.30%. The estimated new - season US soybean planting area is 85.55 million acres. The supply of South American soybeans is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal will be loose in mid - April. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term [22][23]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 0.59%. The US - Iran conflict continues, which supports the oil price and the demand for palm oil in the bio - fuel industry. The production of Malaysian palm oil in the off - season has decreased month - on - month, which is conducive to inventory reduction. Palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term [24][25].

交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1091号 完稿时间:2026年03月27日 | 分析师： | 胡毓秀 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号: | F03105325 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0021337 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | | 研报辅助人员: | 黄若愚 | | 从业资格证号： | F03145541 | | | 主力合约 | hc2605 收盘价：3305 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基本面 | 需求稳健修复，冷轧消费量创新高带动板材整体向好， 库存去化速度加快，供需结构边际改善；偏多 | 重要提示： | | 热 | 基差 | 热轧卷板现货价 3290 元/吨，基差-15；中性 | | | 轧 | 库存 | 全国 33 个主要城市库存 369.42 万吨，环比减少，同 | | | 卷 | | 比增加；中性 | | | 板 | 盘面 | 价格在 20 日线上方，20 日线趋势向上；偏多 | | | | 主力 | 主力持仓净多，多增；偏多 | | | | 持仓 | | | | | 预期 | 预计震荡偏强，表现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content available. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate is expected to slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the inflation rate in the US this year will reach 4.2%, much higher than the Fed's expectation. The eurozone economic growth rate is expected to drop to 0.8% in 2026 and rebound to 1.2% in 2027. The uncertainty in the Middle East situation poses a test to global economic resilience. If energy prices remain high for a long time, it will significantly increase corporate costs, push up the inflation level, and drag down the global economic growth outlook [5][18]. - The Chinese government's work report in 2026 sets an annual economic growth target range of 4.5% - 5% and requires efforts to achieve better results in actual work. The overall labor productivity needs to be higher than the GDP growth rate, and R & D investment is used to drive the improvement of total factor productivity to offset the decline of the demographic dividend. The urbanization rate target is raised to 71.0%, with the focus shifting to quality improvement, and domestic demand potential is released through citizenization. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will tend to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level due to the downward - shifting growth target, and the growth of labor productivity provides a lower - bound support through the wage - inflation spiral [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP in Q4 2025 grew by 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.2% in the previous month and 50.2% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, the same as the previous month but down from 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 2385.5 billion yuan, down from 2492.6 billion yuan in the previous month but up from 2233.1 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, M0, M1, and M2 increased by 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% year - on - year respectively, higher than the previous month and the same period last year. The new RMB loans of financial institutions in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, up from 390 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 1010 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, up from 0.7% in the previous month and - 0.7% in the same period last year; PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.2% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.8%, up from - 2.6% in the previous period but down from 4.1% in the same period last year; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.8%, down from 4.0% in the previous period and the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the monthly export amount increased by 39.6% year - on - year, up from 5.9% in the previous month and - 3.1% in the same period last year; the monthly import amount increased by 13.8% year - on - year, up from 1.9% in the previous month and 1.6% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Ministry of Commerce will promote the implementation of policies to stimulate inbound consumption and expand service exports. It is expected that China's foreign trade will maintain a stable and positive trend, and efforts will be made to attract foreign investment [2]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has set trading limits and margin ratios for the EC2703 contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures [2]. - On March 26, 34 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 35 had negative basis. Among them, Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel, and Zhengzhou cotton had the largest basis, while apples, strong wheat, and common wheat had the smallest basis [3]. - US President Trump will visit China from May 14 to 15, 2026, and the two sides are in communication about this [3][16]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, US Eastern Time. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal with four conditions [4][16]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating a so - called "final blow" military option against Iran, and Iran has organized over one million people for ground combat and warned of opening a new front [5][16]. 3.2.2 Metals - In the two weeks after the Iran war, the Turkish central bank sold and swapped about 60 tons of gold, putting downward pressure on gold prices. The Turkish gold reserve decreased by 6 tons in the week of March 13 and 52.4 tons in the week of March 20 [6]. - In January 2026, there was a surplus of 17,000 tons in the global refined copper market [6]. - On March 25, the inventory of aluminum, zinc, tin, copper, nickel, lead decreased, while the inventory of aluminum alloy and cobalt remained stable [6]. - As of the week of March 20, Russia's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves were 776.8 billion US dollars, down from 803.2 billion US dollars in the previous period [7]. - In February, Hong Kong's gold exports to the Chinese mainland were 63.818 metric tons, up from 36.544 metric tons in January [7]. - On March 25, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 4960 yuan to 152,500 yuan per ton, rising for two consecutive days [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In February 2026, China exported 783.8 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, and the export average price was 729 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% [9]. - The Indian steel ministry is seeking help from the petroleum ministry to deal with the liquefied petroleum gas shortage in steel mills [9]. - A new large - scale light rare - earth mine was discovered in Sichuan, with an additional rare - earth resource amount of 966.6 million tons in the Maoniuping mining area [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The fuel surcharge for domestic airline tickets will increase on April 5, 2026 [10]. - The BASF (Guangdong) integrated base has been fully put into operation, with 18 sets of equipment, 32 production lines, and more than 70 products [10]. - As of the week of March 20, the US natural gas inventory was 182.9 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 5.4 billion cubic feet from the previous week, an increase of 9 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, and an increase of 1.4 billion cubic feet from the five - year average [11]. - The Trump administration is reported to be studying the economic impact of oil prices soaring to 200 US dollars per barrel, but the White House denies this [11]. - Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has to cut oil production, and the output of its southern main oil fields has dropped by 80% to about 800,000 barrels per day [11]. - Two major Russian oil shipping ports in the Baltic Sea were attacked by Ukrainian drones, and about 40% of Russia's crude oil export capacity has been suspended [12]. - Barclays Bank warns that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for more than a few weeks, the global oil market may lose up to 14 million barrels of supply per day [12]. - The US diesel market shows signs of supply shortage, and the average diesel price in California has exceeded the historical high [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of March 25, 2026, the import of Australian beef has reached 50% of the annual quota, and a 55% tariff will be imposed thereafter [13]. - The domestic pig price is expected to remain low in the first half of 2026 and may strengthen around July. The supply of standard pigs will be concentrated from March to July 2026, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [13][14]. - The EU Commission predicts that the available output of EU common wheat in the 2026/27 season will be 125.9 million tons, down from 134.2 million tons in the 2025/26 season [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 26, the central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 211 billion yuan [15]. 3.3.2 Key News - Trump will visit China from May 14 to 15, 2026, and the two sides are in communication [3][16]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities, and Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal [4][16]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating a military option against Iran, and Iran has made preparations for ground combat [5][16]. - The central budget in 2026 has added 49 specific projects, and the disclosure of departmental budgets and budget performance targets has been strengthened [17]. - Eight departments including the National Healthcare Security Administration have issued a plan to establish a long - term care insurance system, with a total premium rate of about 0.3% [17]. - The OECD released an economic outlook report, predicting global and regional economic growth rates and warning of the impact of the Middle East situation on the global economy [5][18]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation held a symposium on fair competition among enterprises and will strengthen antitrust supervision and support enterprises to expand overseas markets [18]. - The South Korean Ministry of Finance will repurchase 5 trillion won of national bonds in two batches to stabilize the bond market [19]. - There are major events in the bond market, including new defaults, changes in controlling shareholders, mergers, and bond redemptions [19]. - Credit rating agencies have made ratings and rating adjustments for some domestic and foreign entities [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market in China has warmed up, with the yields of major interest - rate bonds falling, and the bond futures rising. The money market is generally loose, and the short - term interest rates show different trends [20][21][22]. - The exchange bond market has mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [20]. - The convertible bond index has fallen, with some convertible bonds rising and some falling [20][21]. - The yields of European and US bonds have generally risen [23][24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down on March 26, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was depreciated. The US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies generally fell [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the government work report in 2026 has set an economic growth target, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level [26]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 27, 179 bonds will be listed, 134 bonds will be issued, 163 bonds will be paid, and 320 bonds will pay principal and interest [27]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market fell with shrinking trading volume. The battery industry chain rose, while insurance stocks and some technology - related sectors fell [28]. - The Hong Kong stock market fell, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index both dropping significantly. Consumer and technology stocks were hit hard, and southbound funds had a net inflow [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global financial and commodity markets, including overnight market trends, important macro - economic and geopolitical news, and data on various futures and financial instruments. It reflects the complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and central bank policies on market performance. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 3.85% at $4376.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 6.22% at $68.12 per ounce [4]. - U.S. oil and Brent oil futures rose, with the U.S. oil main contract up 3.84% at $93.79 per barrel and Brent oil main contract up 4.15% at $101.3 per barrel [5]. - Most London base metals fell, except for LME aluminum which rose 0.37% to $3254.5 per ton [5]. Important News Macro News - U.S. President Trump may visit China in mid - May, and China and the U.S. are in communication about it [8]. - The U.S. Department of Defense is formulating a military plan for a "decisive strike" against Iran, with multiple options [8]. - Shanghai International Energy Exchange sets trading limits and margin ratios for the EC2703 contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures [8]. - Trump postponed the planned strike on Iran's energy infrastructure by 10 days, providing a short - term respite for the global energy market [9]. - The possibility of a cease - fire between the U.S. and Iran remains low as their demands are beyond each other's acceptance [11]. - Iran released 10 oil tankers [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - China's urea enterprise inventory decreased by 13.40% week - on - week to 70.05 tons on March 25, 2026, due to rising industrial demand [13]. - China's liquefied gas sample enterprise storage capacity rate dropped to 24.92% as of March 26, 2026 [13]. - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and medium distillate inventories all increased in the week ending March 25 [13]. - Glass enterprise inventory reduction slowed down, with the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises at 7362.2 million heavy boxes as of March 26, a 1.09% week - on - week decrease [14]. - U.S. natural gas inventory decreased by 540 billion cubic feet to 18290 billion cubic feet in the week ending March 20, 2026, a 5.2% year - on - year increase [16]. Metal Futures - ANZ predicts that the aluminum price will peak at $3600 per ton in Q3 2026, and about 800 - 1000 million tons of production will be affected in 2026 due to supply disruptions in the Middle East [18]. - Nickel Industries Limited's Indonesian mine suspended operations after an accident [18]. - Turkey's central bank sold about 22 tons of gold and conducted about 31 tons of gold swap transactions last week, with its gold reserve dropping to 771.8 tons [18]. Black - Series Futures - In February 2026, China's steel exports increased by 1.1% month - on - month to 783.8 million tons, and imports decreased by 19.6% month - on - month to 36.9 million tons [22]. - As of the week ending March 26, 2026, rebar production decreased by 2.69% week - on - week, while apparent demand increased by 8.30% [22]. - An Australian mining company reduced operations due to diesel supply constraints and a tropical cyclone [23]. - HeSteel Group's silicon - manganese procurement volume in March 2026 was 5100 tons [23]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in China was 21 yuan/ton [23]. Agricultural Futures - From March 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [26]. - U.S. soybean and corn inventories are expected to reach multi - year highs in 2026 [26]. - U.S. soybean and corn planting areas in 2026 are expected to change compared to previous years [26]. - U.S. soybean export net sales increased in the week ending March 19, 2026 [27]. - The number of un - priced sell orders for ICE cotton futures decreased by 1606 hands as of March 20 [27]. Financial Markets Finance - A - shares declined with reduced trading volume, and the Hang Seng Index also fell [29]. - Some companies' first - quarter report disclosure times were announced [29]. - A company is considering an IPO in Hong Kong and seeking up to $1 billion in financing [30]. - The management and custody fees of a Hong Kong - stock - connect Internet ETF were reduced [30]. Industry - The first industry standard for embodied intelligence was released and will be implemented on June 1, 2026 [32]. - AI and robot program traffic has exceeded human user traffic [32]. - Domestic airline fuel surcharges will increase on April 5, 2026 [32]. - Shanghai's new - home transactions increased after the "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy [32]. - Guangdong Province optimized housing provident fund policies [33]. Overseas - Trump mentioned Iran's "gift" and the option to control Iranian oil [34]. - Iran is committed to ending the war and has taken measures to ensure the passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz [36]. - Russia hopes the Middle - East conflict will end in the coming weeks [36]. - The OECD predicts global and U.S. economic growth rates [36]. - U.S. initial jobless claims increased, and continuing claims decreased [37]. - The European Parliament voted to support a conditional implementation of the EU - U.S. trade agreement [37]. - The European Central Bank may consider raising interest rates if inflation soars [38]. - Germany's GDP growth may decline if the Middle - East conflict persists [38]. International Stock Markets - U.S. and European stock markets declined, and most Asia - Pacific stock markets also fell [39][40]. - SpaceX may list with a high proportion of shares allocated to individual investors [40]. - Wall Street's bonus pool reached a record high in 2025 [40]. Commodities - Trading limits and margin ratios for the EC2703 contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures were set [42]. - Precious metals fell, while oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions [42]. - Most base metals declined [43]. - Iraq had to cut oil production due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [43]. - Turkey's central bank sold and swapped gold [45]. Bonds - China's inter - bank bond market heated up, and South Korea will repurchase bonds to stabilize the market [46]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar index rose [47]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data include UK consumer confidence, China's industrial enterprise profits, etc. [50] - Upcoming events include speeches by central bank officials, conferences, and corporate earnings reports [52]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量环比下降，表观需求继续增加，库存进入去化阶段。螺纹总体供需相对平衡， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 华东库存仍偏高。国内政策预期不强，但外部扰动较强，原料端波动较大，另外偏高的 | | | | 形成一定支撑，钢材短期或震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需环比上升，库存小幅下降，绝对水平仍偏高，供需总体相对平稳。目前 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 行情受外部扰动影响较大，铁矿也带来成本支撑，短期或震荡反复。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量环比继续增加，库存去化，基本面整体好转，但矛盾不明显。价格震荡偏弱运 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 行。原油系大幅波动或对资金情绪造成影响，谨慎操作。 | | | | 焦企利润有所改善，开工持稳，部分地区受环保限产影响有所减产。从需求来看，铁水产量 | | 焦炭 ★ | 谨慎看空 | 环比继续增加，补库积极性增加，焦企库存维持去化状态。整体供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤 | | | | 区间运行。 | | | | 国内煤矿日产继续回升，从需求来看，近期线上竞拍成交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils continued to pick up. The weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 54,000 tons, and the supply continued to recover, but the inventory level remained high, and the supply pressure was only slightly relieved. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coils was resilient, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 31,200 tons, but the high-frequency transactions declined from the high level. The relatively positive factor was that the production of cold-rolled coils, the main downstream product, remained at a high level. However, the potential contradictions should be guarded against, and there were still concerns about demand due to continuous overseas disturbances and average export performance. Currently, the demand for hot-rolled coils has recovered well, and the fundamentals have improved under the situation of both supply and demand growth. The strong raw materials have provided cost support, and the price of hot-rolled coils has returned to the upper edge of the shock range. However, the concerns about demand have not receded, and the upward driving force under the high inventory situation has weakened. The subsequent trend will continue to be in a shock operation state, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.0561 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 54,000 tons, and a month-on-month decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the end of last month. The weekly production of cold-rolled coils was 892,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3,500 tons and a month-on-month increase of 14,500 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.10 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 0.82 percentage points [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 3.1363 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 31,200 tons and a month-on-month increase of 223,200 tons. The high-frequency transactions declined from the high level, and the export performance was average, but the production of cold-rolled coils, the main downstream product, remained at a high level [2][3] Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils was 4.5327 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 80,200 tons and a month-on-month increase of 11,200 tons. The in-plant inventory was 838,500 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 11,100 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 109,300 tons. The social inventory was 3.6942 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 69,100 tons and a month-on-month increase of 120,500 tons [2]

螺纹钢周度数据（20260327） 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 197.87 -5.46 165.10 32.77 216.81 -18.94 高炉产能利用率（%） 86.63 1.10 87.45 -0.82 86.54 0.09 表观需求量 225.37 17.28 80.54 144.83 220.35 5.02 钢联建材成交周均值 9.46 0.02 3.49 5.97 10.11 -0.65 总库存 861.91 -27.50 800.60 61.31 859.90 2.01 厂内库存 219.16 -17.04 232.84 -13.68 229.04 -9.88 社会库存 642.75 -10.46 567.76 74.99 630.86 11.89 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 春 节 前 15 周 春 节 前 12 周 春 节 前 9 周 春 节 前 6 周 春 节 前 3 周 春 节 当 周 春 节 后 3 周 春 节 后 6 周 春 节 后 9 周 春 ...