Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: June 30, 2025 Group 2: Spot Market Data - Newman Powder: Latest price 703, daily change 8, weekly change 0, discounted to the futures price 750.8, import profit -35.10 [2] - PB Powder: Latest price 707, daily change 7, weekly change -3, discounted to the futures price 747.0, import profit -14.58 [2] - McFadden Powder: Latest price 690, daily change 7, weekly change -3, discounted to the futures price 754.0, import profit -11.72 [2] - Jinbuba Powder: Latest price 659, daily change 7, weekly change -3, discounted to the futures price 745.2, import profit -19.73 [2] - Mainstream Mixed Powder: Latest price 643, daily change 5, weekly change -10, discounted to the futures price 765.1, import profit -7.01 [2] - Super Special Powder: Latest price 601, daily change 6, weekly change -3, discounted to the futures price 807.9, import profit -15.83 [2] - Carajás Powder: Latest price 805, daily change 10, weekly change 0, discounted to the futures price 742.1, import profit -6.21 [2] - Brazilian Mixed Powder: Latest price 741, daily change 7, weekly change -3, discounted to the futures price 749.8, import profit -4.39 [2] - Other Varieties: Including various iron ore powders from different regions with corresponding price and profit data [2] Group 3: Futures Market Data - Exchange Contracts: i2601, i2605, i2509, FE01, FE05, FE09 with latest prices, daily changes, weekly changes, and month - to - month spreads [2] - Basis/Spread: Information on basis and spreads between domestic and foreign markets, including those of the Dalian Commodity Exchange and Singapore Exchange [2] - Premiums: Information on U - ball/pellet premium, PB block/block premium [2] Group 4: Data Source - Data Source: MYSTEEL [9]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪回暖，矿价偏强震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所改善，钢厂生产积极，矿石终端消耗持续回升，需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿 价强支撑。不过，港口到货和矿商发运大幅回升，多因财年末冲量所致，但持续性存疑，而内矿供应 恢复积极，已然重回年内高位，整体矿石供应维持高位。综上，矿石需求韧性表现尚可，且市场情绪 有所 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential resurgence of inflation in the U.S. due to trade policies and economic uncertainties, urging central banks to focus on their core missions to maintain market trust and enhance policy effectiveness [1] - The A-share market has shown a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index increasing by 3.73% and 5.69% respectively [1] - Analysts suggest that upcoming mid-year reports from listed companies will create structural investment opportunities, with a focus on sectors with strong performance and high safety margins, such as consumer goods and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - The shipping index for the European route has shown fluctuations, with the SCFI European line increasing by $195/TEU to $2030/TEU, reflecting the pricing situation for July [2] - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with significant trading volume, indicating a potential upward breakout in the A-share market, particularly for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices supported by technology policies [3][9] - The glass and soda ash markets are currently in a phase of inventory digestion, with soda ash production inventory decreasing by 152,000 tons, while glass production inventory increased by 70,000 boxes [4][15] Group 3 - International news includes President Trump's comments on not needing to extend the deadline for countries to reach agreements to avoid higher tariffs, criticizing the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [5] - Domestic news reports that China has conditionally resumed imports of seafood from certain regions in Japan following monitoring of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater situation [6] - Industry news from the 2025 Listed Companies Forum indicates ongoing reforms in major exchanges, with a notable trend of A+H listings expected to increase [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to experience a relatively strong and volatile trend, driven by macro - level positive factors. However, if the spot demand fails to improve, the upward space for iron ore prices will be limited, as the basis has rapidly shrunk to a multi - year low [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The impetus for end - of - fiscal - year output boost in Western Australia is coming to an end. Freight trends suggest that the short - term shipments of major Australian mines may decline on a month - on - month basis. The global iron ore shipment volume in the current week was 35.067 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.54 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.687 million tons. The cumulative year - to - date (YTD) global shipment volume was 750.293 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.703 million tons or 0.2%. Australian shipments decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [4][5][17]. - Among major mines, BHP and Fortescue had end - of - fiscal - year output boosts. Non - mainstream mines showed that Peru's production recovered, and South Africa's output increased on a month - on - month basis. In the domestic market, the capacity utilization rate of mines in North China improved, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate [18][20][27]. Demand - Blast furnace production remains at a relatively high level, and the output of the five major steel products is showing an upward trend. The daily average molten iron output of 247 enterprises was 2.4229 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0235 million tons [4][5][32]. - The substitution effect of scrap steel is relatively weak, as scrap steel arrivals are relatively neutral, and the price difference between scrap and iron continues to widen [33]. Macro - level - The optimistic sentiment spreading from the equity market has boosted the valuation of commodities. The strengthening expectation of interest rate cuts and the weakening US dollar index are favorable for the valuation of iron ore [5]. Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 09 contract showed a relatively strong and volatile trend, closing at 716.5 yuan/ton. The open interest was 679,000 lots, a decrease of 3,100 lots. The average daily trading volume was 273,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 146,000 lots [7]. Spot Price Performance - Spot prices have not shown a significant follow - up increase, and the basis has further weakened. For example, the price of BRBF (62.5%) decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the price of PB powder (61.5%) decreased by 2 yuan/ton compared to last week [12]. Inventory - The inflection point of port inventory has not been significantly realized, and the inventories of Australian and Brazilian ores have shown differentiation. The inventory of imported ores at 45 ports was 139.302 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.361 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10.584 million tons. The block ore inventory has been continuously decreasing [37][38][39]. Downstream Profit - The prices of raw material futures have strengthened, and the basis has weakened, leading to a differentiation between spot and futures market profits [41]. Spot Category Price Difference - Recently, the inventory differentiation trend between powder ore and block ore has been obvious, and the price difference between PB block and PB powder has gradually strengthened [44]. Futures Month - to - Month Spread - The month - to - month spread has generally shown a "volatile and weak" trend recently. Although it is slightly higher year - on - year, the 9 - 1 spread has declined to a phased low on a month - on - month basis [50]. Basis Performance - The futures market has shown strong performance, while spot demand has remained weak. Recently, the basis has significantly shrunk [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.98%. Although the strong raw materials boosted the steel market, the supply continued to rise while the demand was weak and stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and the sustainability of the upward drive was questionable. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated upward with a daily increase of 0.94%. The strong raw materials supported the steel price to rise, but the supply was high and stable while the demand weakened. The fundamental contradictions were accumulating. The subsequent trend will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level, and the risk of tariffs after the "exemption period" should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strong with a daily increase of 1.99%. The demand was resilient and the market sentiment improved, but the supply pressure remained and the demand growth space was limited. The fundamentals were difficult to improve continuously, and the upward drive was not strong. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 272.043 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Among them, the profit of state-owned holding enterprises decreased by 7.4%, that of joint-stock enterprises decreased by 1.5%, that of foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 0.3%, and that of private enterprises increased by 3.4% [6]. - In May 2025, China issued 49.19 billion yuan of new bonds, including 4.87 billion yuan of general bonds and 44.32 billion yuan of special bonds. The total issuance of local government bonds was 77.95 billion yuan. From January to May, the total issuance of local government bonds was 431.48 billion yuan [7]. - On June 26, 2025, South Africa decided to impose a temporary safeguard measure tax of 52.34% on imported steel flat-rolled products from June 27 for 200 days [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,050 yuan, 3,160 yuan and 3,198 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,190 yuan, 3,110 yuan and 3,227 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,910 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 140 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 950 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 708 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 692 yuan, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates were 7.43 yuan and 21.86 yuan respectively, the SGX swap price was 94.45 yuan, and the Platts index was 93.30 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the active rebar contract was 2,995 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.98%, a trading volume of 1,500,826 lots and an open interest of 2,142,813 lots [13]. - The closing price of the active hot-rolled coil contract was 3,121 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.94%, a trading volume of 613,616 lots and an open interest of 1,524,710 lots [13]. - The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 716.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.99%, a trading volume of 485,658 lots and an open interest of 679,900 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [15][22]. - It also includes charts on steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [29]. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply pressure is increasing as the weekly output increased by 5.66 tons and reached a relatively high level this year. The demand is weak and stable, with the weekly apparent demand increasing slightly by 0.72 tons and the high-frequency transactions remaining low. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate [38]. - For hot-rolled coil, the supply pressure is still large as the weekly output increased by 1.79 tons and remained at a high level this year. The demand is weakening, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 4.44 tons. The subsequent trend will continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level, and the tariff risk after the "exemption period" should be guarded against [38]. - For iron ore, the demand is resilient as the terminal consumption continues to rise, but the supply pressure remains as the port arrivals and miner shipments have both reached high levels this year. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of iron ore in China decreased while demand increased in the first half of 2025. The consumption of iron ore reached a record high, supporting the high valuation of iron ore among the black commodities. [2][93] - In the second half of the year, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase slightly, with a total increment of about 13 million tons from the Big Four mines and non - Australia and Brazil regions. The supply pressure is not significant. [2][93] - The demand for construction steel in China is expected to continue to decline, while the demand for manufacturing steel is expected to remain resilient. Overseas demand, especially from India, is expected to contribute more than 10 million tons of incremental demand throughout the year. [2][93] - The trading logic in the second half of the year mainly involves the Fed's interest - rate cuts and global tariff policies. The fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand will remain neutral, and the Platts iron ore price will fluctuate widely between $90 - $105. [3][94] - The trading strategy suggests speculatively buying at the bottom of the iron ore price and for spot enterprises to hedge at high prices. [5][95] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1.1 Production and Sales of the Big Four Mines in H1 2025 - The total production of the Big Four mines in the first half of the year was estimated at 545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% (2 million tons), and the total shipment was 544 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% (0.6 million tons). The overall production and sales were lower than market expectations. [12] - In the second half of the year, the production may accelerate, with the increment mainly from Rio Tinto and BHP, but the overall increment may be only about 7 million tons. [12] 3.1.2 Domestic Iron Ore Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 513 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% (26 million tons). Imports from Australia, Brazil, and non - Australia and Brazil all declined. [13] 3.1.3 Non - Australia and Brazil Global Shipments - The current non - Australia and Brazil global shipments depend on the remaining gap in global total demand after subtracting the shipments of the Big Four mines. The marginal cost of non - mainstream mine shipments may be above $90. [29][30] - Australia and Brazil's non - mainstream mines are unlikely to see large increments. Non - Australia and Brazil global shipments are likely to decline. [33][37] 3.1.4 Domestic Iron Concentrate Production and Scrap Steel Consumption - From January to May 2025, domestic iron concentrate production decreased by 5.4% year - on - year (6 million tons). In 2025, it is expected to continue to contribute to the reduction. [49] - In 2025, domestic scrap steel consumption is unlikely to see a significant increase due to the continuous decline in real estate investment. [49] 3.1.5 Terminal Steel Demand - The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the infrastructure may contribute a small reduction. The manufacturing investment remains at a relatively high level, and the demand for manufacturing steel is expected to maintain its resilience. [56][61] - Overseas iron element consumption has been at a high level. India's steel demand is expected to contribute more than 10 million tons of incremental demand throughout the year. [73][74] 3.1.6 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - The total inventory of imported iron ore ports is relatively high, but the low total iron element inventory and the resilience of overseas demand support the iron ore price. The port iron ore inventory is expected to remain balanced in the third quarter. [80][83] 3.2 Iron Ore Market Outlook - The supply of iron ore in China decreased while demand increased in the first half of 2025. In the second half of the year, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is expected to maintain a certain level. [93] - The trading logic in the second half of the year mainly involves the Fed's interest - rate cuts and global tariff policies. The fundamentals of iron ore supply and demand will remain neutral, and the Platts iron ore price will fluctuate between $90 - $105. [94] - The trading strategy suggests speculatively buying at the bottom of the iron ore price and for spot enterprises to hedge at high prices. [95]

Group 1: Company Announcements - Jingce Electronics' subsidiary signed sales contracts for semiconductor measurement equipment totaling 113 million yuan [1] - Zhifei Biological plans to issue company bonds not exceeding 6 billion yuan for technology innovation and working capital [1] - Rijiu Optoelectronics' subsidiary plans to invest 822 million yuan in a functional film project with an annual production capacity of 6 million square meters [1] - Huiyun Titanium Industry's subsidiary intends to acquire a 53.125% stake in Chenshang Mining for 30.6 million yuan and increase capital by 32.4 million yuan [2] - Hongte Technology plans to raise up to 650 million yuan through a rights issue for various projects and working capital [2] - Jincheng Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received FDA approval for the active pharmaceutical ingredient Posaconazole [4] - Kairun Co. plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 2% due to personal funding needs [5] - Rundou Co. passed an FDA inspection for nine active pharmaceutical ingredients [6] - Sanyou Lianzhong's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3% due to funding needs [7] - *ST Yazhen's stock was suspended for trading due to a significant price increase of 29.43% [9] - Online and Offline plans to change control with a share transfer agreement, leading to a new controlling shareholder [10] - Dazhong Mining intends to purchase office space from an affiliate for 50.17 million yuan [11] - Suzhou Bank's major shareholder increased its stake by 856 million yuan [12] - *ST Fanli's subsidiary plans to acquire a 60% stake in Guangzhou Fengteng for up to 28.8 million yuan [14] - Hengmingda's major shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3.15% [16] - Guomai Technology's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1% due to funding needs [17] - ST Bailin's stock will change its name to Guizhou Bailin and remove risk warnings [17] - *ST Xianfeng's stock will change its name to Xianfeng Holdings and remove risk warnings [18] - Maiwei Bio signed an exclusive licensing agreement with CALICO for a monoclonal antibody, receiving an upfront payment of 25 million USD [19] - Maiwei Bio signed a technology licensing agreement with Qilu Pharmaceutical for a new drug project, with a total payment of up to 500 million yuan [21] - Maiwei Bio plans to repurchase shares worth between 25 million and 50 million yuan [22] - Mengwang Technology plans to acquire 100% of Bicheng Digital for 1.28 billion yuan to expand its e-commerce services [22] Group 2: Industry Overview - Jingce Electronics operates in the mechanical equipment sector, focusing on measurement systems for displays, semiconductors, and new energy [1] - Zhifei Biological is in the pharmaceutical sector, specializing in vaccine and biological product development [1] - Rijiu Optoelectronics is part of the electronics industry, focusing on touch display materials and functional films [1][2] - Huiyun Titanium Industry operates in the basic chemicals sector, focusing on titanium dioxide products [2] - Hongte Technology is in the automotive industry, specializing in aluminum alloy precision die-casting for automotive components [2][3] - Jincheng Pharmaceutical is in the pharmaceutical sector, focusing on chemical pharmaceuticals and active ingredients [4] - Rundou Co. operates in the pharmaceutical sector, focusing on chemical drug formulations and raw materials [6] - Sanyou Lianzhong is in the electrical equipment sector, specializing in relays and transformers [7] - *ST Yazhen operates in the light industry, focusing on high-end furniture products [9] - Online and Offline is in the communication sector, focusing on communication services and applications [10] - Dazhong Mining operates in the steel industry, focusing on iron ore mining and processing [11] - Suzhou Bank is a city commercial bank, providing various banking services [12] - *ST Fanli operates in the media sector, focusing on online advertising and marketing services [14] - Hengmingda is in the electronics sector, focusing on precision components for consumer electronics [16] - Guomai Technology operates in the education sector, focusing on IoT technology services [17] - ST Bailin is in the energy sector, providing engineering consulting and smart factory solutions [17] - *ST Xianfeng operates in the animal health sector, focusing on vaccines and animal nutrition [18] - Maiwei Bio is in the pharmaceutical sector, focusing on biopharmaceuticals [19][21][22] - Mengwang Technology operates in the communication sector, focusing on cloud platform services [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年06月27日08时22分 报告导读： 本周原油价格大幅走低，对黑色商品目前影响有限。5 月各线房价环比均回落，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于筑底的过程中 ，5 月的经济数据整体 略不及预期。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹产量有所上升，厂库回升，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比略有回升，数 据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态。从需求的季节性规律看，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存将会小幅回升。整体来看，目 前市场交易的是弱现实和弱预期，但价格也有可能充分地反映了各方面的利空 。从技术上看，期价仍旧维持窄幅震荡，成交在回落，在价格下跌 时，持仓量放大，显示空头仍更主动，最近几日的下跌，也有可能是二次探底结束，后市大概率延续震荡 操作建议： 维持观望，回调企稳后可做多，不可追涨 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | ...

铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/6/27 | | | | | | 现货 | | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | 普氏62指数 | | 92.75 | -0.20 | 0.00 | | | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 695 | 0 | -3 | | 742.1 | 90.70 | 0.70 | 0.95 | -35.67 | | | | PB粉 | 700 | 0 | -8 | | 739.3 | 92.90 | 0.75 | 0.30 | -15.59 | | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 683 | 0 | -8 | | 746.4 | 88.85 | 0.65 | 0.60 | -11.85 | | | | 金布巴 | 652 | 0 | -8 | | 737.7 | 85.00 | 0.70 | 0.55 | -1 ...