期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-06 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 缺乏基本面支撑，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美以向伊朗发动军事袭击，中东地缘风险快速升温。由于伊朗甲 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, all with an intraday and reference view of "oscillating strongly" and a medium - term view of "oscillating" [5][6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating strongly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Core Logic**: U.S. soybean prices are supported by soaring crude oil and geopolitical conflict premiums, but Brazilian soybean harvest expectations pressure U.S. soybean exports. In China, the spot market is weak, with high inventory levels and cautious downstream purchases, yet short - term prices are driven by external costs and sentiment and follow U.S. soybean price fluctuations [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating strongly [7] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7] - **Core Logic**: Palm oil's performance is relatively prominent due to the increased cost - effectiveness as a biodiesel raw material. Malaysian inventory is expected to decline, but in China, supply is abundant, with high inventory and low seasonal demand, and price increases are limited by domestic industrial chain pressure [7]. Soybean Oil (Not elaborated in detail like the above two, but mentioned in the table) - **Short - term, Medium - term, Intraday, and Reference Views**: Oscillating strongly [6] - **Core Logic Factors**: U.S. soybean cost support, U.S. biofuel policy, U.S. soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's supply and demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price will continue to fluctuate. The demand for iron ore is weak, while the supply is increasing, and the fundamentals of the ore market remain weak. However, the increase in transportation costs due to conflicts provides support for the ore price. The ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both "oscillation", and the intraday trend is "oscillation and weakening". It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA5. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price continues to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Environmental protection restrictions have led to a decline in the terminal consumption of ore, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The industrial contradictions in the steel market are also accumulating, resulting in weak ore demand. On the supply side, although the arrival of goods at domestic ports is at a low level, the shipments of miners remain high. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will increase, the overseas ore supply will increase, and domestic ore production is also recovering, so the ore supply will return to a high level. Overall, the ore market fundamentals remain weak, and the ore price is still under pressure. The increase in transportation costs due to conflicts provides support for the ore price. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 government work report sets the GDP growth target at 4.5%-5%, leaving room for policy adjustment. It focuses on promoting domestic market construction, cultivating new productive forces, and deepening capital market reform, providing a solid foundation for economic and capital market development [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is affected by the US dollar index and domestic corporate settlement willingness. Short - term strategies are proposed for export and import enterprises [3]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to geopolitical risks and weak rebound momentum [4]. - The bond market is affected neutrally by the government work report. If the A - share market adjusts, the bond market may rise; otherwise, it may continue to fluctuate [6]. - The container shipping index (European line) futures are expected to be highly volatile in the short term, with a weakening market sentiment and a possible downward - moving center [11]. - In the new energy sector, downstream enterprises of lithium carbonate are advised to replenish inventory at low prices. The silicon industry chain is in a bottom - grinding stage, waiting for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern [14][16]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina to be volatile and sorted, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. Zinc is weak in the short term and strong in the medium term, and nickel - stainless steel is volatile and weak [17][21][22]. - In the oil and gas sector, the crude oil market is mainly affected by the Middle East situation. Fuel oil prices are strong due to supply concerns, and asphalt prices follow the cost of crude oil [29][32][33]. - In the precious metals sector, platinum and palladium are in a long - term bull market but may face short - term adjustments. Gold and silver are strategically bullish but need to be cautious about short - term risks [36][38]. - In the chemical sector, pure benzene and styrene are expected to be strong, LPG is highly volatile, and methanol is affected by the geopolitical conflict. Polyolefins are supported by cost and supply - demand fundamentals if the conflict continues [39][41][42]. - In the rubber sector, natural rubber is expected to be volatile, and synthetic rubber is relatively easy to rise but has inventory pressure [47][67]. - In the urea market, the geopolitical conflict may drive up prices. In the glass and soda ash market, the pattern remains unchanged, waiting for unexpected factors [49][51][52]. - In the black sector, steel products are expected to be volatile and weak, iron ore has support in the short - term but limited upward space, and coal and coke may face downward pressure [53][55][56]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities sector, the pig market is weak, cotton has upward potential but is affected by external factors, sugar is expected to be volatile and strong, eggs are recommended to sell call options, apples are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and jujubes are expected to be in low - level oscillation [58][60][61]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The situation is still unclear. The government work report sets the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5% and the CPI target at about 2%. The US initial jobless claims reached a new high, and the Middle East conflict continues [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Affected by the US dollar index and corporate settlement willingness. Short - term strategies are proposed for export and import enterprises [3]. - **Stock Index**: Rebounded but with weak momentum. Expected to fluctuate in the short term due to geopolitical risks [4]. - **Treasury Bond**: The government work report has a neutral impact. The bond market may rise if the A - share market adjusts; otherwise, it may continue to fluctuate [6]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is in a near - strong and far - weak pattern, with high volatility. It is expected to be highly volatile in the short term, with a weakening market sentiment [8][11]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price rose, and downstream enterprises are advised to replenish inventory at low prices [14]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The futures prices fluctuated. The industry is in a bottom - grinding stage, waiting for capacity clearance and improvement of the supply - demand pattern [15][16]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: Affected by the Middle East conflict and the US dollar index, it is expected to be volatile and strong [17]. - **Copper**: The price is under pressure, and the expected price range is 99625 - 105171 yuan/ton [21]. - **Zinc**: Weak in the short term and strong in the medium term [22]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: Volatile and weak [22]. - **Tin**: Expected to be in high - level oscillation [25]. - **Lead**: Expected to be in oscillation [25]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: Oscillating and sorting. The supply pressure is expected to return in the second quarter [26]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is affected by policy rumors, and the focus is on the Middle East conflict and relevant policies [26][27]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Crude Oil**: The market is mainly affected by the Middle East situation, and the price is highly volatile [29][30]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price is strong due to supply concerns [32]. - **Asphalt**: The price follows the cost of crude oil and may fall if the geopolitical factor fades [33]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: In a long - term bull market but may face short - term adjustments [36][37]. - **Gold and Silver**: Strategically bullish but need to be cautious about short - term risks [38]. Chemicals - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Expected to be strong due to cost support and market sentiment [39]. - **LPG**: Highly volatile, mainly affected by the Middle East situation [41]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, with potential supply concerns [42]. - **Plastic PP**: The price is affected by the Middle East situation. If the conflict continues, it is supported by cost and supply - demand fundamentals [43]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber is expected to be volatile, and synthetic rubber is relatively easy to rise but has inventory pressure [47][67]. - **Urea**: The geopolitical conflict may drive up prices [49]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The pattern remains unchanged, waiting for unexpected factors [51][52]. Black - **Steel Products**: Expected to be volatile and weak due to the weak impact of the government work report on the real estate market [53]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has support in the short - term but limited upward space due to supply - demand factors [55]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price may face downward pressure if certain conditions are met [56]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Silicon manganese is affected by high inventory, and silicon iron has better fundamentals but limited upward space [57]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pig**: The market is weak, and a selling call option strategy is proposed [58]. - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand is expected to be tight, but it is affected by external factors [60]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be volatile and strong [61]. - **Egg**: A selling call option strategy is recommended [62]. - **Apple**: The price is easy to rise but difficult to fall due to the combination of fundamentals and delivery issues [68][70]. - **Jujube**: Expected to be in low - level oscillation due to sufficient supply and weak demand [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict, oil prices are rising, the Fed's rate - cut expectations are weakening, and US bond yields are climbing rapidly. It is advisable to pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. - The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the domestic bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, affected by stock market trends and inflation expectations [7]. - Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards precious metals, as short - term fluctuations are expected due to the adjustment of margin by CME and the geopolitical situation [10]. - The prices of most non - ferrous metals are supported by factors such as resource attributes and supply - demand relationships, but also face risks from geopolitical situations and market sentiment [13][15][18]. - The black - building materials sector is currently in a weak state, and the short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification [32]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and different products have different investment strategies according to their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][61]. - For agricultural products, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, and corresponding investment strategies are put forward [81][83][87]. 3. Summaries According to Different Categories 3.1 Macro - finance 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: Some flights from China to the Middle East have resumed, Israel will reopen its airspace on the 8th, US tech giants have signed a self - power supply commitment, the central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of repurchase operations, and US economic data shows mixed results [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and the change of the war situation and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The yields of treasury bond futures have minor changes, the government has set economic growth targets, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery momentum is uncertain, and the bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend, affected by stock market trends and inflation expectations [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver have declined, which may be related to the rise of US bond yields and the large - scale selling plan of the Polish central bank. CME has adjusted the margin of gold and silver futures, and global gold ETFs have seen continuous capital inflows [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, as short - term fluctuations are expected due to the adjustment of margin by CME and the geopolitical situation [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the Middle East war, copper prices have declined, LME inventory has increased, and domestic social inventory has also changed [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the risk preference is affected by the geopolitical situation, the key mineral resource attribute supports copper prices. The short - term price has support, and the reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,500 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum has fallen after rising, the inventory has changed, and the trading situation in the spot market is different [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a high level, the price is still supported by factors such as the uncertainty of the Middle East war and the supply risk [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc has a slight increase, and the inventory and basis have changed [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, and the price may fluctuate widely during the conflict [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead has declined, and the inventory and basis have changed [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the lead ingot inventory has increased, the price is expected to stop falling and gradually recover [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has declined, and the price of nickel ore and nickel iron has remained stable [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, the price of nickel is expected to rise slowly, while in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate to digest inventory pressure [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has declined, the supply is tight, and the demand has not been effectively reflected [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market has a strong sentiment of going long on tin, but it should not blindly chase the high. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased, the production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - ore positive factors have been fully digested, and the price may fall back. Be cautious about going long [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has increased, the basis and inventory have changed [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start have reduced the inventory accumulation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has declined, the inventory has decreased, and the raw material price has remained stable [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is increasing, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. The price is expected to rise in a volatile manner [27]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy has fluctuated slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve after the festival. The short - term price support is strong [29]. 3.3 Black - building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have minor changes, and the inventory and position have also changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The macro - policy supports the demand for steel, but the current inventory is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [33][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply is expected to recover, and the demand is affected by short - term production restrictions. The price is expected to fluctuate [34]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have increased slightly, and the spot prices are at a premium [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the prices of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of a phased decline. In the long term, there is a possibility of an upward trend [38][39]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has increased, and the inventory has increased. The price of soda ash has increased, and the inventory has also increased [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock [41][43]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The price of manganese silicon has declined slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon has increased slightly. The technical forms of both have changed [44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate, and the black - building materials sector is in a weak state. Pay attention to the cost - push and supply - contraction factors [45][46]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has increased slightly, and the supply and demand are expected to increase. The price of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the inventory is high [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and the price of polysilicon is expected to be under pressure [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has a slight decline, and the price of butadiene rubber has increased. The开工 rate of tire enterprises has recovered, and the inventory has increased [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and consider hedging strategies [54]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has increased significantly, and the inventories of related refined products have changed [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy, do long on the spread of different oil types, and short on the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil and the INE - Brent spread [56]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices and futures prices of methanol have changed [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current price has included the geopolitical premium, and it is advisable to take profits at high prices [58]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices and futures prices of urea have changed [59][60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, and it is advisable to short - sell [61]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [63]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price may rebound due to the cost sentiment of crude oil [65][66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a pressure of inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction due to the tense situation in Iran. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions at low prices [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Observe the subsequent maintenance situation, and pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions following PX and crude oil [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX is in a state of inventory accumulation in the short term and is expected to turn to inventory reduction in March. Pay attention to the opportunity of long - positions following crude oil [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has increased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is supported by factors such as the reduction of geopolitical influence and the seasonal demand [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has decreased, and the supply, demand, and inventory have changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and it is advisable to long - position the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [78]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs have different trends in different regions, and the supply is greater than the demand in most areas [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a bearish view on the near - term contracts and a relatively bullish but cautious view on the far - term contracts [81]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have minor changes, the supply is stable, and the inventory pressure has decreased [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the current price is supported, there is a potential pressure on the medium - term price [83]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The predicted production of Brazilian soybeans has been reduced, and the export and inventory data of soybeans have changed [84][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of CBOT soybeans has strengthened, but the domestic soybean inventory is high. Wait for the price to pull back before buying [87]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia have changed, and the inventory of domestic oils and fats has decreased [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of oils and fats is driven by the rise of crude oil prices. It is advisable to buy at low prices [89]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand have changed, and the price of raw sugar is at a low level [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Do not be overly bearish on raw sugar. It is advisable to buy a small amount of long - positions at low prices in the domestic market [92]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The predicted production of global cotton has decreased, and the export and inventory data of cotton have changed [93]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased in position. Pay attention to the downstream start - up in March, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [94].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market. Overall, the market has both positive and negative factors. Positively, the regulation of Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to reduce by over 10%, there is pre - holiday downstream inventory replenishment, the US tariffs on cotton exports have been reduced, Sino - US relations have eased, and the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" are approaching. Negatively, overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, a large amount of new cotton has entered the market, and it is currently in the traditional consumption off - season. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term [4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - There is no information about the previous day's review in the provided content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ICAC predicts 25 million tons of global consumption and 24.8 million tons of production for the 26/27 season. In 2026, the Xinjiang cotton planting area regulation may lead to a reduction of over 10%. USDA's February report shows 26.096 million tons of production, 25.847 million tons of consumption, and 16.353 million tons of ending inventory for the 25/26 season. In December, textile and clothing exports were $25.99 billion, a 7.4% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in December were 180,000 tons, a 31% year - on - year increase, and棉纱 imports were 170,000 tons, a 13.33% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 25/26 season shows 6.64 million tons of production, 1.4 million tons of imports, 7.6 million tons of consumption, and 8.29 million tons of ending inventory [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 16,583, with a basis of 1333 (for the 05 contract), indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a positive factor [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's February forecast for the 25/26 season shows 8.29 million tons of ending inventory, which is a negative factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a positive factor [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position has decreased, and the main trend is unclear, still considered a positive factor [4]. - **Expectation**: With the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden March and Silver April" for cotton, the reduction of US tariffs, and the easing of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. Cotton is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The total production in 2025/26 is 26.096 million tons, with a 1% year - on - year increase; the total consumption is 25.847 million tons, with a slight year - on - year decrease; the total ending inventory is 16.353 million tons, with a 2% year - on - year increase. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/26 season, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data**: For the 2025/26 season, the production is 6.64 million tons, the import is 1.4 million tons, the consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.29 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data - There is no information about position data in the provided content.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年3月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 3月5日期货交易所锌期货行情 | 交割月份 | 関結構 | 今开盘 | 葡萄N | 服低价 | 收盘价 | 結構參考研 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持合手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称:锌 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2603 | 24450 | 24405 | 24780 | 24395 | 24445 | 24625 | -2 | 175 | 0182 | 40762.23 | 807 ...

Group 1: Price Performance - London gold's latest price is $5104.05 with a change of -$44.50 [1] - London silver's latest price is $84.22 with a change of -$2.57 [1] - London platinum's latest price is $2167.00 with a change of $53.00 [1] - London palladium's latest price is $1707.00 with a change of $36.00 [1] - WTI crude's latest price is $81.01 with a change of $6.35 [1] - LME copper's latest price is $12986.00 with a change of -$44.00 [1] - The latest dollar index is 99.04 with a change of 0.25 [1] - The latest euro - to - dollar exchange rate is 1.16 with a change of -0.00 [1] - The latest pound - to - dollar exchange rate is 1.34 with a change of -0.00 [1] - The latest dollar - to - yen exchange rate is 157.56 with a change of 0.53 [1] - The latest yield of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.80 with a change of 0.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX silver's latest inventory is 10927.96 with a change of -27.30 [2] - SHFE silver's latest inventory is 272.72 with a change of -22.10 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1075.89 with a change of -5.15 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15947.57 with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE silver's latest inventory is 450.45 with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with no change [2] - SGE gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with no change [2] Group 3: Others - There is a section about precious metal ratio [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation on the weak side [1][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillation, while the intraday view is oscillation on the weak side. The reference view is weak operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Due to the military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East, geopolitical risks have risen rapidly. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp increase in crude oil futures prices. Rising oil prices have led to an increase in inflation expectations, a possible end to the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle, and an expectation of tighter liquidity. Additionally, a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. These negative factors have caused the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract to show a weakly oscillating trend on Thursday night, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillation, while the intraday view is oscillation on the weak side. The reference view is weak operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The military conflict in the Middle East has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices. Rising oil prices have increased inflation expectations, a possible end to the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle, and an expectation of tighter liquidity. Against this background, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2605 contract showed limited upward momentum on Thursday night, and it is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Friday [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. Due to the upgraded situation in the Middle East and the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the external crude oil price has gapped up, which provides significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. Both LLDPE and PP are expected to show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today, with cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalating situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in crude oil prices, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuation. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of work and demand recovery of downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are slow, while the packaging film has low - load rigid - demand operation and is expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector has started production one after another. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7320 (+100), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 73, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 59.4 tons (-3.3), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract's disk continues to be strong. The situation in Iran disturbs the oil price, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PE will show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the situation in Iran driving up crude oil prices [6] - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalating situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in crude oil prices, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuation. In terms of supply and demand, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable. The demand in the north recovers relatively fast but with limited increment. The BOPP resumes work quickly but faces competition and some finished - product inventory pressure. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7500 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 42, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 65.5 tons (-8.5), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract's disk continues to be strong. The situation in Iran disturbs the oil price, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PP will show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the situation in Iran driving up crude oil prices [8] - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7320, up 100; the price of the 05 contract is 7393, up 38; the basis is - 73, up 62; the warehouse receipt is 8709, down 241; the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 59.4 tons, down 3.3 [9] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7500, up 150; the price of the 05 contract is 7458, down 48; the basis is 42, up 198; the warehouse receipt is 18584, down 2260; the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 65.5 tons, down 8.5 [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally show an upward trend, while the import dependence shows a downward trend. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally show an upward trend, and the import dependence also shows a downward trend. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]