Core Viewpoint - Despite the stabilization of international oil prices and a slight increase in palm oil futures, domestic oilseed contracts have recorded a third consecutive day of decline, indicating ongoing market pressures and the need to monitor domestic canola purchases and trade relations with Canada [1][4]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25 increased by 6.63% to 1,057,466 tons compared to the same period last month, indicating a potential easing of inventory pressure [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a 4.55% decrease in palm oil production for June 1-20, with significant regional variations in output [2]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in April fell to 1.78 million tons, down from 2.18 million tons year-on-year, while production increased slightly to 4.48 million tons [2]. Group 2: Indian Market Impact - India canceled a 65,000-ton palm oil order due to rising prices, which may disrupt the previously strong purchasing momentum following a reduction in import taxes [3]. - India's June soybean imports are expected to drop by 18% to 325,000 tons, the lowest level in four months, due to port congestion affecting delivery schedules [3]. Group 3: Domestic Oilseed Supply and Demand - Domestic oilseed inventories have risen, with total commercial stocks reaching 2.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is projected to reach 9.5 million tons for June, supported by high supply levels [5]. - The current oversupply of soybeans is exerting downward pressure on soybean oil prices, while palm oil inventories are also increasing due to higher import volumes [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently focused on the tight canola inventory situation and the impact of weather on crop growth, with expectations of increased volatility in the near term [6]. - The recent decline in crude oil prices has negatively affected oilseed performance, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in the short term [7].

Report Overview - Date: June 25, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures' near - month contract hit a 4 - year low on Tuesday due to good production prospects and falling crude oil. Short - term Zheng sugar prices follow the external market but are supported by the previous low. Pay attention to the support level at 5600 [3]. - **Cotton**: With stable Sino - US policies and a demand off - season, cotton price rebound is limited. However, due to low imported cotton volume, Xinjiang cotton destocking is fast. By the end of the year, supply - demand may tighten, narrowing the downside space. Pay attention to the pressure at 13600 and support at 13000, as well as the off - season destocking speed [16]. - **Apple**: Affected by seasonal fruits, apple sales are limited. In Shandong, packaging is limited by the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the main supply is from northern Shaanxi and secondary areas are mostly cleared. New - season apples are in the bagging period. Shandong's bagging quantity is slightly more than last year, while the western region's is estimated to be less, with an overall estimated production cut of 5% - 8%. Monitor bagging numbers [21]. - **Jujube**: The first - round girdling in southern Xinjiang jujube - growing areas is ending. Due to high fruit - hanging in the 24/25 season and recent high temperatures, the first - crop fruit quantity is low. The second - crop fruit is the main contributor to the yield. Pay attention to the impact of high temperatures on the second - crop fruit. Currently, prices are stable with light trading [29]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Futures Prices**: SR01 closed at 5577 with a daily increase of 0.4% and a weekly increase of 0.76%; SR03 at 5552 (0.33% daily, 0.74% weekly); SR05 at 5529 (0.24% daily, 0.58% weekly); SR07 at 5766 (0.38% daily, 0.6% weekly); SR09 at 5757 (0.82% daily, 1.37% weekly); SR11 at 5635 (0.68% daily, 0.84% weekly); SB at 16.33 (-1.15% daily, -0.73% weekly); W at 467.4 (0.15% daily, -0.47% weekly) [4]. - **Price Spreads**: SR01 - 05 was 39 (-9 daily, -6 weekly); SR05 - 09 was -194 (0 daily, -12 weekly); SR09 - 01 was 155 (9 daily, 18 weekly); etc [4]. - **Basis**: For example, Nanning - SR01 was 485 (10 daily increase, 9 weekly increase); Kunming - SR01 was 305 (15 daily increase, -6 weekly increase) [11]. - **Import Prices**: Brazilian import quota - within price was 4450 (57 daily increase, -26 weekly increase), quota - outside was 5653 (75 daily increase, -33 weekly increase); Thai import quota - within was 4460 (45 daily increase, -38 weekly increase), quota - outside was 5665 (59 daily increase, -50 weekly increase) [14]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 13625 (40 increase, 0.29%); Cotton 05 at 13605 (50 increase, 0.37%); Cotton 09 at 13645 (35 increase, 0.26%); Yarn 01 at 19990 (120 increase, 0.6%); Yarn 05 at 20055 (-100% change); Yarn 09 at 19995 (90 increase, 0.45%) [17]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton basis was 1273 (-156 daily); Cotton 01 - 05 was 30 (0 daily); Cotton 05 - 09 was -55 (-60 daily); etc [18]. Apple - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 7586 (0.21% daily, 0.84% weekly); AP03 at 7603 (0.04% daily, 0.6% weekly); AP04 at 7651 (-0.14% daily, 0.87% weekly); etc [22]. - **Spot Prices**: For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 was 4.1 (0% daily and weekly); Luochuan semi - commodity 70 was 4.8 (0% daily and weekly) [22]. - **Price Spreads**: AP01 - 05 was -135 (7.14% daily, -0.74% weekly); AP05 - 10 was 31 (3.33% daily, 82.35% weekly); AP10 - 01 was 104 (8.33% daily, -12.61% weekly) [23]. Jujube - **Production Situation**: The first - round girdling in southern Xinjiang is ending. Due to high fruit - hanging last season and high temperatures, first - crop fruit is limited. Second - crop fruit is crucial. Temperatures may remain high this week, with a weekend drop and a subsequent rise, posing challenges to new - season yield [29]. - **Market Situation**: No arrivals in Guangzhou Ruyifang market yesterday, 3 arrivals in Hebei Cuierzhuang market. Downstream trading is light with sporadic deals, and spot prices are stable [29].

期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13610元/吨，较前一日变动+145元/吨，幅度+1.08%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价14767元/吨，较前一日变动-13元/吨，现货基差CF09+1157，较前一日变动-158；3128B棉全国均价14883元/ 吨，较前一日变动-11元/吨，现货基差CF09+1273，较前一日变动-156。 近期市场资讯，据中国棉花信息网对全国棉花交易市场18个省市的154 家棉花交割和监管仓库、社会仓库、保税 区库存和加工企业库存调查数据显示，截止6月15日全国棉花商业库存312.69万吨，较5月底减少33.18万吨，降幅 9.59%。其中新疆疆内棉花库存为197.86万吨，较5月底减少28.92万吨；内地库存77.93万吨，较5月底减少5.36万吨； 进口棉保税库存为36.9万吨，较5月底增加1.1万吨。 农产品日报 | 2025-06-25 棉价震荡反弹，纸浆大幅下挫 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。宏观方面，中美贸易谈判释放积极信号，国内棉价受到提振小幅反弹。不过此次谈判中 并没有明显利好中国对美出口的协议达成，宏观环境不确定性仍强，需关 ...

油料日报 | 2025-06-25 供应增量而需求表现较弱，油料价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4227.00元/吨，较前日变化-23.00元/吨，幅度-0.54%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07-47，较前日变化+23，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周一，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低1.3%，主要受到美国中西 部地区天气条件持续改善的影响。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌9.25美分到14美分不等，其中7月期约下跌9.25美分， 报收1058.75美分/蒲;8月期约下跌9.50美分，报收1062美分/蒲;11月期约下跌14美分，报收1046.75美分/蒲。6月24日， 黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一 等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨 日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白 ...

2025年06月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：国际油价回落，油脂单边回调 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆仍收跌，连粕或调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡调整 | 6 | | 白糖：震荡偏弱 | 8 | | 棉花：关注下游需求和商业库存 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 11 | | 生猪：震荡调整 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 豆油：国际油价回落，油脂单边回调 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,326 | -2 ...

农产品早报 2025-06-25 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆继续回落，交易天气较好及贸易战担忧，原油大跌亦打压美豆油估值，不过市场预期全球大豆 新作产量可能有下降趋势，叠加美豆估值略低，美豆整体偏震荡。国内豆粕期货继续回落，现货压榨量 本周或创新高，累库压力增大，周二国内豆粕现货稳定或略跌 10 元/吨左右，华东报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计周二国内豆粕成交较弱，提货仍较好。 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程，不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动。 当前美豆端生物柴油政策提供利好，意味着需求端压榨量的预测边际向好，美豆的库销比水平可能支撑 其进一步上行，但考虑到全球蛋白供应过剩，美豆可能仍将低于成本。 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 玉米 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆震荡盘整,中东局势出现缓和迹象,油脂油料市场有所拖累。国产大豆基层余粮不多,政策端在进行 拍卖补充。短期天气方面对国产大豆生长有利。进口大豆方面短期关注6月底美国大豆新作面积报告,短期天气 有利于美国大豆生长。持续关注天气的指引。 【大豆&豆粕】 以伊双方表示同意停火,国际原油下跌 ...

油料日报 | 2025-06-24 花生收购量持续低位，价格震荡运行 市场分析 无 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4250.00元/吨，较前日变化-9.00元/吨，幅度-0.21%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A07-70，较前日变化+9，幅度32.14%。 花生观点 市场资讯汇总：周五，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低0.7%，主要原因是美国中 西部地区的天气有利于作物生长，周末前多头获利平仓抛售。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌4美分到7.50美分不等，其 中7月期约下跌6.75美分，报收1068美分/蒲式耳;8月期约下跌5.25美分，报收1071.50美分/蒲式耳;11月期约下跌7.50 美分，报收1060.75美分/蒲式耳。6月23日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤， 较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯 富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白 41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-24 现货整体上涨，豆粕偏强震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3037元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.98%；菜粕2509合约2657元/吨，较前 日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.82%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2940元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M09-97， 较前日变动+0；江苏地区豆粕现货2860元/吨，较前日变动-40元/吨，现货基差M09-177，较前日变动-10；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2880元/吨，较前日变动跌-30元/吨，现货基差M09-157，较前日变动+0。福建地区菜粕现货价格2650 元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差RM09-7，较前日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，USDA表示，截至6月12日当周，24/25年度美豆周度出口净销增至53.95万吨，累计销售4913万吨， 进度97.58%；25/26年度美豆周度出口净销7.52万吨，累计销售119万吨，同比增7万吨，进度2.42%。 市场分析 整体来看，前巴西升贴水仍维持高位，进口成本的抬升支撑国内豆粕价格。此外，当前政策端中美谈判暂无新进 ...

2025年06月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：国际油价回落，油脂单边回调 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或跟随回落 | 4 | | 豆一：市场氛围偏空，或调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 8 | | 棉花：缺乏上涨驱动 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：远月预期偏弱 | 11 | | 生猪：短期震荡 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 豆油：国际油价回落，油脂单边回调 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.19% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.94% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主 ...