Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the current state and future trends of the coal industry in China, specifically focusing on the market price of Shanxi premium mixed coal (5500 kcal) [1] Price Trends - As of late January 2026, the market price for Shanxi premium mixed coal (5500 kcal) is 692.7 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.45% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.42% [1] - The peak price over the past five years was recorded in late January 2023, reaching 1218 yuan per ton [1]

Core Insights - The National Energy Group's Shendong Coal Yujialiang Coal Mine has upgraded its remote intelligent control system for the air compressor room, referred to as the "smart brain" by employees, enhancing safety and efficiency in coal mining operations [1][2] Group 1: System Upgrade and Functionality - The upgraded intelligent system transitions from manual monitoring to smart control, reducing labor intensity and improving safety levels for energy supply during the Spring Festival [1] - The previous manual operation required 24-hour staffing and frequent inspections, leading to fatigue and potential human error, while the new system automates data collection and equipment management [1][2] Group 2: Safety and Efficiency Enhancements - The system includes multiple fault diagnosis and safety protection protocols, with millisecond-level anomaly response capabilities, allowing for early warnings and automatic handling of equipment issues [2] - The intelligent upgrade ensures a more stable, efficient, and safe air supply system, contributing to continuous production and energy supply during the Spring Festival [2] Group 3: Broader Implications for the Industry - The Yujialiang Coal Mine is advancing its smart mining initiatives, focusing on addressing frontline challenges through technology to enhance safety, reduce labor, and improve efficiency [2] - The integration of technology into production not only maintains safety standards but also improves the quality of life for frontline workers, ensuring a reliable coal supply during critical periods [2]

消息面上，2月23日晚，中国秦发公布，预期于2025年将取得除税后亏损不多于人民币9800万元，而 2024年除税后溢利则约为人民币5.56亿元。综合因素包括︰年内平均煤炭销售价下降；已终止经营业务 的原煤产量减少；持续经营业务的原煤产量增加；汇兑亏损增加；及年内并无重大借贷修订之收益。 中国秦发(00866)今早一度跌超9%，截至发稿，跌4.41%，报3.47港元，成交额2757.9万港元。 ...

消息面上，2月23日晚，中国秦发公布，预期于2025年将取得除税后亏损不多于人民币9800万元，而 2024年除税后溢利则约为人民币5.56亿元。综合因素包括︰年内平均煤炭销售价下降；已终止经营业务 的原煤产量减少；持续经营业务的原煤产量增加；汇兑亏损增加；及年内并无重大借贷修订之收益。 智通财经APP获悉，中国秦发(00866)今早一度跌超9%，截至发稿，跌4.41%，报3.47港元，成交额 2757.9万港元。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply side of thermal coal is the main focus of future market games. Besides the potential positive risks of the domestic "anti - involution policy", the coal export quota of Indonesia is also an important uncertain factor. Without significant changes in the supply side, the supply - demand pattern of China's thermal coal may remain loose, and coal prices may maintain low - level operation [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Price Fluctuation Calculation and Classification - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2] - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly oscillating, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongly oscillating, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The concepts of strongly/weakly oscillating only apply to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [3][4] 3.3 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply side of thermal coal is the main focus of future market games. The domestic "anti - involution policy" and Indonesia's coal export quota are important factors. Without significant supply - side changes, the supply - demand pattern of China's thermal coal may remain loose, and coal prices may stay at a low level [1][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the 2605 contract of coking coal, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is strong, and the reference view is oscillation. The coking coal price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern due to limited fundamental support and a long - term expectation of loose supply and demand [1][5]. - For the 2605 contract of coke, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is slightly stronger, and the reference view is oscillation. The coke price is expected to run at a low level with stable supply and demand in the short term and limited cost support from coking coal [1][6]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: Short - term supply contracts during the Spring Festival but will quickly recover after the festival. In the long - run, the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to loose supply - demand expectations [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The main driving factors are the short - term supply contraction during the Spring Festival, the long - term loose supply - demand situation, and the low - level stabilization of thermal coal prices. There are also three potential positive risks: geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran, economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions, and potential "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: The fundamentals have no obvious change, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The cost support from coking coal is limited, and the futures lack unilateral momentum [6]. - **Driving Factors**: The supply and demand are stable during the Spring Festival. Although the supply of coking coal contracts in the short term, the coking enterprises and steel mills have sufficient coal stocks, and the resumption of coal mine production after the festival limits the cost support for coke. The uncertainties come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Aluminum, tin, PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, short - fiber, bottle - chip, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton [17][15][62][65][112][118][134][146][164] - **Neutral Outlook**: Copper, zinc, lead, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, log, styrene, soda ash, synthetic rubber, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene, container shipping index (European line), double - offset paper, peanut, egg [5][8][11][20][21][25][36][41][45][49][53][101][104][68][74][77][82][88][91][97][142][120][139][178][170] - **Negative Outlook**: Iron ore, LLDPE, live hog [39][71][173] 2. Core Views - **Commodities with Cost Support and Positive Trends**: PX and PTA are supported by cost and are expected to rise after the Spring Festival. MEG is in a range - bound operation. The prices of rubber, LPG, and propylene are expected to be strong due to various factors such as supply - demand and geopolitical influences [63][64][65][112] - **Commodities with Uncertainty and Volatility**: Copper has increased uncertainty and price fluctuations. Zinc, lead, and other metals are in a range - bound oscillation due to factors like supply - demand balance and market sentiment [5][8][11] - **Agricultural Commodities Affected by Multiple Factors**: Palm oil and soybean oil are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand fundamentals. Cotton is expected to open slightly higher, and sugar is in a range - bound arrangement [146][164][159] 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Uncertainty increases, price fluctuates. The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 100,380, a decrease of 1.91%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk rose 0.35%. The market is affected by factors such as AI concerns, tariff war risks, and corporate production plans [5] - **Zinc**: Ranges in a certain interval. The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24,250, a decrease of 1.70%. The LME zinc 3M electronic disk rose 0.91%. The market is influenced by factors like trade policies and inventory changes [8] - **Lead**: Both supply and demand are weak, and the price ranges. The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,700, unchanged. The LME lead 3M electronic disk rose 0.69%. The market is affected by macro - news and inventory levels [11] - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs. The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 365,400, a decrease of 7.05%. The LME tin 3M electronic disk rose 1.35%. The market is influenced by tariff policies and international trade situations [14] - **Aluminum**: After the Spring Festival, the trend is strong. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 23,195, a decrease of 120. The market is affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and cost [17] - **Nickel**: Speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel still exists, and attention should be paid to the contradiction of nickel ore. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 135,190, a decrease of 4,420. The market is affected by factors such as Indonesian policies and market supply - demand [25] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support center moves up, but the inventory accumulation in the off - season restricts the elasticity. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,860, a decrease of 110. The market is affected by factors such as raw material prices and inventory levels [25] Energy and Chemicals - **PX and PTA**: Cost - supported, with a strong trend. During the Spring Festival, the PX US dollar price rose significantly. After the festival, the domestic PTA opening price is expected to make up for the increase. The market is affected by factors such as upstream raw material prices and downstream demand [63][64] - **MEG**: Range - bound operation. The overseas ethylene glycol price was stable during the Spring Festival. The domestic market is affected by factors such as supply - side device start - up rates and inventory levels [64] - **Rubber**: Oscillates strongly. The closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,315, a decrease of 135. The market is affected by factors such as supply - demand in the off - season and downstream enterprise resumption [65] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Runs in a short - term oscillation. The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract was 12,505, a decrease of 210. The market is affected by factors such as inventory levels and cost support [68] - **LLDPE**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances during the festival, cost - supported and oscillates strongly. The closing price of the LLDPE main contract was 6,644, a decrease of 1.34%. The market is affected by factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand expectations [71] - **PP**: The C3 raw material performs strongly, and the PDH maintenance rate is still high. The closing price of the PP main contract was 6,568, a decrease of 1.20%. The market is affected by factors such as cost, supply - side device maintenance, and downstream demand [74] - **Caustic Soda**: Cost - supported, mainly oscillates. The 05 - contract futures price was 2,243. The market is affected by factors such as chlorine prices, inventory levels, and downstream demand [77] - **Paper Pulp**: Runs in an oscillation. The closing price of the paper pulp main contract was 5,260, an increase of 22. The market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance and price trends [84] - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The closing price of the glass main contract was 1,041, a decrease of 2.44%. The market is affected by factors such as downstream procurement and market demand [89] - **Methanol**: Runs in an oscillation. The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,188, a decrease of 43. The market is affected by factors such as inventory levels, cost, and downstream demand [92] - **Urea**: The price center moves up. The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,833, a decrease of 10. The market is affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and agricultural demand [98] - **Styrene**: Oscillates strongly. The closing price of the styrene 2602 contract was 7,360, a decrease of 100. The market is affected by factors such as overseas prices, inventory levels, and export situations [101] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1,150, a decrease of 1.63%. The market is affected by factors such as enterprise production and downstream demand [104] - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong. The closing price of the LPG 2603 contract was 4,252, a decrease of 0.44%. The market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations and supply - demand [107] - **Propylene**: The fundamentals remain tight, and attention should be paid to the post - festival replenishment dynamics. The closing price of the propylene 2603 contract was 6,172, a decrease of 1.69%. The market is affected by factors such as supply - side device start - up rates and downstream demand [107] - **PVC**: Ranges in an interval. The 05 - contract futures price was 4,905. The market is affected by factors such as cost, inventory levels, and supply - demand [116] - **Fuel Oil**: May make up for the increase at the opening, and short - term fluctuations continue to expand. The closing price of the fuel oil 2603 contract was 3,080, an increase of 2.22%. The market is affected by factors such as international oil prices and supply - demand [118] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Follows the upward trend, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market continues to rebound. The closing price of the low - sulfur fuel oil 2603 contract was 3,209, a decrease of 3.49%. The market is affected by factors such as international oil prices and supply - demand [118] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances cause oil prices to rise, and the fundamental logic continues from before the festival. The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 8,698, a decrease of 0.96%. The market is affected by factors such as production, export, and geopolitical situations [146] - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybeans run stably, and the soybean oil rebounds in an interval. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,054, a decrease of 0.35%. The market is affected by factors such as US soybean production, trade policies, and supply - demand [146] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans changed little during the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to US tariff policies. The closing price of the DCE soybean meal 2605 contract was 2,800, an increase of 18. The market is affected by factors such as US soybean production, trade policies, and supply - demand [152] - **Soybean**: Pay attention to market sentiment, and it may be stable and strong. The closing price of the DCE soybean 2605 contract was 4,674, an increase of 98. The market is affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand, and trade policies [152] - **Corn**: Oscillates strongly. The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2,320, an increase of 0.04%. The market is affected by factors such as planting area, production, and demand [155] - **Sugar**: Arranges in an interval. The futures main price was 5,211, a decrease of 43. The market is affected by factors such as production, import, and demand [159] - **Cotton**: Expected to open slightly higher. The closing price of the CF2605 contract was 14,740, a decrease of 0.34%. The market is affected by factors such as domestic and foreign supply - demand, planting area, and international cotton prices [164] - **Egg**: Oscillates and adjusts. The closing price of the egg 2603 contract was 2,945, an increase of 0.27%. The market is affected by factors such as supply - demand, feed prices, and production costs [170] - **Live Hog**: The spot price during the holiday was lower than expected. The closing price of the live - hog 2603 contract was 10,740, a decrease of 155. The market is affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory levels, and production capacity [175] - **Peanut**: Runs in an oscillation. The closing price of the PK603 contract was 8,010, a decrease of 0.05%. The market is affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory levels, and price trends [178]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to focus on the recovery intensity of plate demand, the policy trends of the Two Sessions, and whether there are marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies. In the short term, the black series is likely to continue the weak - range oscillation pattern, and the trend opportunity is not clear [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of non - ferrous metals and commodity bulls. The short - term market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle, suppressing the overall atmosphere [8][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) 3.1.1 Market Quotes - On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3055 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.163%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 19,597 tons, a net increase of 2,694 tons. The main contract position was 1.9424 million lots, a net decrease of 87,095 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3222 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.124%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 332,840 tons, a net increase of 34,986 tons. The main contract position was 1.4822 million lots, a net decrease of 51,469 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coil in Lecong was 3250 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - Before the Spring Festival, the overall sentiment in the commodity market was cautious, and the prices of finished products continued to oscillate in the bottom range. Overseas policy uncertainties increased, and the market risk appetite declined, disturbing commodity prices. After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to focus on the recovery intensity of plate demand, the policy trends of the Two Sessions, and whether there are marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies. In the short term, the black series is likely to continue the weak - range oscillation pattern [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Quotes - On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 746.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.10% (- 16.00). The position change was - 3368 lots, changing to 494,600 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 866,600 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 756 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.24 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.01% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - In terms of supply, after the weather disturbance in Australia during the Spring Festival was eliminated, overseas ore shipments returned to the high level of the same period. The shipments from Australia increased significantly, and those from Brazil increased slightly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries rebounded month - on - month. The near - end arrival volume continued to decline. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output according to the Steel Union's data before the festival increased to 230,490 tons. The resumption of blast furnaces was mainly due to the planned resumption after the previous blast furnace overhauls, and some blast furnaces in certain regions started annual overhauls. The profitability rate of steel mills declined slightly. During the holiday, the production activities of domestic steel mills were carried out normally and smoothly, and the daily average pig iron output was expected to increase slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory before the festival was at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, and the inventory was transferred to the factory faster, driving the high increase in the port clearance volume and the month - on - month decline in port inventory. Overall, after the end of the weather impact, overseas supply recovered, and the high inventory suppressed the price increase. The structural factors need to be resolved, and the price will mainly oscillate. After the festival, it is necessary to pay attention to the start - up situation of domestic terminal demand and the policy guidance of important meetings in March [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon 3.3.1 Market Quotes - On February 13, the last day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.52%, at 5770 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5870 yuan/ton on the disk, with a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the disk. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 0.15%, at 5492 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 208 yuan/ton over the disk. In the last week before the Spring Festival, the manganese silicon disk price showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with a week - on - week decline of 84 yuan/ton or - 1.43%. The ferrosilicon disk price also showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with a week - on - week decline of 144 yuan/ton or - 2.55% [7]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of non - ferrous metals and commodity bulls. The short - term market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle, suppressing the overall atmosphere. In terms of the fundamentals of the varieties themselves, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors have mostly been factored into the price and are not the main contradictions leading the future market. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced, with some improvement due to the overhaul and production conversion of some factories. The main contradictions leading the market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the future are, on the one hand, the direction guidance of the black sector or the influence of the overall market sentiment; on the other hand, the cost - pushing problem caused by manganese ore on the manganese silicon side and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) problem caused by losses or "dual - carbon" on the ferrosilicon side. It is recommended to pay close attention to whether there are sudden situations in the manganese ore end (such as possible restrictive measures on manganese ore exports in South Africa and Gabon) and their possible strong driving force on the market. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy and its possible impact on the supply of ferroalloys [8][9]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke 3.4.1 Market Quotes - On February 13, the last day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.09%, at 1121.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1547.1 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1356.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 235.5 yuan/ton over the main contract. The quoted price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1253 yuan/ton, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton. The quoted price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1227 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1202 yuan/ton, with a premium of 81 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 1.08%, at 1682.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the quoted price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 43.5 yuan/ton over the main contract. The quoted price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price converted to the delivery price on the disk was 1766 yuan/ton, with a premium of 84 yuan/ton over the main contract [11]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke weakened. On the one hand, as the Spring Festival approached, the downstream terminal replenishment ended, leading to a decline in relevant demand and restricting prices. On the other hand, the market still lacked confidence in the downstream steel terminal demand after the festival, and some long - position funds "fled" due to the need for position - closing and risk - avoidance before the festival, driving the price down. In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue, but in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of non - ferrous metals and commodity bulls. The short - term market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle, suppressing the overall atmosphere. During the Spring Festival, the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation increased, and the large - scale military deployment of the US in the Middle East led to a significant rebound in crude oil and precious metal prices. The rise in energy prices may have a certain positive impact on coal prices. In terms of the variety itself, the short - term upward catalysis of coking coal prices is not strong. On the one hand, the fundamental support is not sufficient. The current structure of coking coal is relatively balanced, and the downstream terminal consumption performance has not shown obvious improvement or the expectation of improvement. The low disk profit limits the transmission of upstream price increases to the downstream. On the other hand, the market sentiment does not provide sufficient environmental support, making it difficult to form a resonant bull market and attract more speculative funds to push up the price. In addition, after the Spring Festival, it will soon enter March, when coal mines will start to resume production, which will be the month with the highest coal output in the whole year. With the end of the heating season (weakening coal demand) and the gradual rise of hydropower (increasing alternative supply of thermal power), historically, March - May is the period when coking coal prices are most likely to experience a callback. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a phased price callback, unless there are sudden situations on the supply side. Although the short - term catalysis of coking coal is not strong, it is still expected to have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, but the time node is more likely to be between June and October, when factors such as the safety production month and the consumption peak season are superimposed, rather than the present [13][14][15]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.5.1 Market Quotes - **Industrial Silicon**: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of industrial silicon futures (SI2605) closed at 8395 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.72% (+ 60). The weighted contract position changed by - 30,277 lots, changing to 386,817 lots. In the spot market, the quoted price of non - oxygen - passing 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 805 yuan/ton. The quoted price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. After converting to the disk price, the basis of the main contract was 455 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contract of polysilicon futures (PS2605) closed at 49305 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.59% (+ 290). The weighted contract position changed by - 1175 lots, changing to 63,145 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type dense material was 52.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type re - feeding material was 53.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 3945 yuan/ton [19]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - **Industrial Silicon**: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, industrial silicon oscillated and rebounded. From the perspective of the disk trend, the price was weak. On the supply side, in February, a large factory in the northwest of the industrial silicon industry shut down half of its production, and all production enterprises in Sichuan Province stopped production. The industry's operating rate declined under price pressure, and the supply side continued to contract. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in February declined. A leading enterprise had gradually shut down all its bases in January and maintained the shutdown in February. The operating rates of organic silicon and silicon - aluminum alloy were weakly stable, and the overall demand for industrial silicon weakened. Currently, the production contraction elasticity in the southwest region is significantly smaller than the expansion elasticity. The price support depends on the cost and the production - reduction intensity of northwest enterprises. If the large northwest factories resume production as planned in March, the price is expected to remain weak. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the external impact of the coking coal trend on industrial silicon. Overall, the price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak. After the festival, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there are unexpected changes in the production of upstream and downstream enterprises [18]. - **Polysilicon**: In terms of supply and demand, a leading enterprise maintained a full - scale shutdown in February, and the supply continued to decrease. The production schedule of silicon wafers is expected to remain stable, and the supply - demand situation will improve marginally. The high inventory in the silicon material sector is expected to be slightly reduced. The prices of battery cells and components have increased due to pre - festival policies and cost promotion, but the silicon wafer sector is still in a state of low prices and high inventory. Therefore, the positive feedback from the real - world end to the silicon material sector is not smooth. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can strengthen after the festival and be transmitted to the upstream. In terms of policy expectations, it is expected that anti - involution will continue to support the price, and the full cost below can be used as a reference for price support. At the same time, the anti - monopoly red line will be strengthened in legal operation. In terms of the disk, the position and liquidity of polysilicon futures have both declined to a relatively low level since listing, and the disk is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the post - festival demand feedback and spot prices [20][21]. 3.6 Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1 Market Quotes - **Glass**: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.25% (- 24). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1030 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The quoted price in Central China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On February 12, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 55.352 million cases, a month - on - month increase of 2.288 million cases (+ 4.31%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 10,494 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 11,965 lots [23]. - **Soda Ash**: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.03% (- 12). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1100 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On February 12, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.588 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0069 million tons (+ 4.31%), of which the

2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 24 日 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | -16.0 | -2.10% | | | I2605 | | 746.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as overseas market fluctuations, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations to offer investment suggestions for each market segment. For instance, the stock index futures are expected to be in a structural market, while the bond market is influenced by factors like financial data and "Two Sessions" policies [19][20][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas market volatility during the Spring Festival holiday may affect the A - share market. The tariff rulings and subsequent tariff increase announcements in the US have caused market expectation chaos. The rise in oil and silver prices may stimulate the oil and gas, precious metals, and AI application sectors. The M1 - M2 spread narrowing is beneficial for market liquidity. The stock index is expected to be oscillating strongly, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices remaining strong. Suggested trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM\IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads for options [19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The January domestic financial data shows that the money supply is stronger than the financing demand, and the holiday high - frequency consumption data is also divided. Overseas tariff policies are uncertain. The central bank's attitude to protect market liquidity is clear, which is favorable for the bond market. However, as the "Two Sessions" approach, bond market sentiment may become cautious. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in TS contracts and wait and see for arbitrage [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The impact of origin weather on production is limited, and the Brazilian export volume has increased. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short at high prices [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price rose during the Spring Festival. Brazil's sugar production is almost over, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production is at a high level, the growth rate has slowed down. The domestic sugar supply is under pressure, but the international price increase may drive the Zhengzhou sugar price up in the short term, with a long - term bottom - oscillating trend [29][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The external market prices of soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the export decline narrowed. The geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel policy have an impact on the market. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the oil price is expected to be oscillating strongly [35][36][37]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn price rose. The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn and short the 05 corn lightly at high prices [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is declining, but the short - term decline may be limited. It is advisable to go long on the 05 contract in small quantities [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to go long on dips lightly for the 05 peanut [43][45]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [46][48]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal speed is acceptable, and the fruit price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and conduct long 5 and short 10 arbitrage [49][50][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market price of cotton declined. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to increase. The domestic cotton market has certain support, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [52][53][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the overall fundamentals weakened. The steel price is expected to be oscillating weakly. It is recommended to short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mines are gradually resuming production. The international and domestic coal markets need to be monitored. The coking coal price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [59][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys has strong support. It is advisable to go long on dips as a long - term position [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The overseas gold and silver markets showed a trend of first falling and then rising. Geopolitical risks, the risk of US economic stagflation, and trade policy uncertainties support the price. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the 5 - day moving average [67][68][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical and macro factors support the price of precious metals. It is advisable to go long on platinum on dips and wait and see for palladium [70][71]. - **Copper**: The US tariff is expected to decline in the short term but may exist in the long term. The copper price is supported in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips [73][74]. - **Alumina**: The decline in the supply - side operating rate supports the spot price. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The tariff disturbance does not change the supply - demand support pattern. The aluminum price is expected to be oscillating strongly [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate strongly [83][87]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance. The price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [88][89][90]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance and go long on dips lightly [91][92]. - **Nickel**: The market is dominated by macro factors. The low - position long - term positions can be held [93][94][95]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is advisable to buy on sufficient pullbacks [96][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories. The price may rebound in the short term [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The industry is trying to maintain prices. It is advisable to seize low - price opportunities [100][102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is good, and the price is at a high level. It is necessary to operate cautiously [103][105]. - **Tin**: The concern about AI has increased. The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro policies [107][108][109]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is weak. The demand is declining, and the supply is changing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and stop profits on the 6 - 10 positive spread on rallies [110][111][112]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and conduct positive spread arbitrage [114][115]. - **Asphalt**: It is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply gap after the holiday. It is advisable to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips [116][117]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur supply is increasing, and the low - sulfur near - end is strengthening. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating [119][120][121]. - **LPG**: The international market is strong, and the domestic market is expected to be oscillating strongly [123][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: The market trading theme changes frequently. It is advisable to exit the TTF or JKM positions and hold the HH short positions for the second quarter [126][127]. - **PX & PTA**: The geopolitical situation has increased the cost. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions [129][130]. - **BZ & EB**: The fundamentals of styrene are weakening. The price is expected to be oscillating and consolidating [131][132]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. The price is expected to be oscillating within a range [133][134]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [135][136]. - **Bottle Chips**: The spot supply is decreasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [137]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand support is acceptable. It is advisable to hold long positions [139]. - **Plastics and PP**: The L contract warehouse receipts are flat, and the PP contract warehouse receipts are accumulating. It is advisable to wait and see for the L 2605 contract and short the PP 2605 contract lightly [140][141][142]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is necessary to wait and see [143][144]. - **PVC**: The price is mainly oscillating. It is advisable to go long on dips [146][147][148]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [150][151][154]. - **Glass**: The price is running weakly. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [153][154]. - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitics, the price is expected to be strongly oscillating [156][157]. - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [159][160][161]. - **Pulp**: The US dollar quotation is rising, but the high inventory restricts the rebound. It is advisable to wait and see and conduct range trading [162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market rebound is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies [166]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of work after the holiday. It is advisable for aggressive investors to go long in small quantities [168][170]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The external market is strengthening. It is advisable to wait and see for the RU 05 contract and hold the short position for the NR 04 contract [171][173][174]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts accumulated significantly before the holiday. It is advisable to wait and see for the BR 04 contract [175][177].