Freight Rates and Market Sentiment - Spot freight rates remain low, with a pessimistic market sentiment leading to continued declines, suggesting no further accumulation and the importance of setting stop-loss orders[1] - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes decreased by 8.1% to 1440.24 points, while the index for US West Coast routes increased by 37.7% to 1349.84 points[2] - The overall Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) dropped by 199.90 points to 1198.21 points, reflecting an 8.8% decrease in rates for European routes and a 31.0% decrease for US West Coast routes[2] Economic Indicators - Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved to 50.5, above the expected 49.5, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity[2] - The US manufacturing PMI reached a 39-month high of 53.3, significantly above the forecast of 49.5, suggesting robust manufacturing growth[2] Trade and Tariff Developments - Ongoing delays in US-China tariff negotiations have led to a marginalization of tariff issues, with current focus shifting to spot freight rates[3] - The main contract closed at 1050.5, reflecting a 6.00% decline, with trading volume at 32,100 contracts and an increase in open interest by 542 contracts[3] Strategic Recommendations - Short-term strategy suggests maintaining a weak position in main contracts while waiting for bottoming opportunities, advising against holding positions without stop-loss measures[4] - Long-term strategy recommends taking profits on high positions and waiting for stabilization before making further directional judgments[4] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and volatile oil prices are contributing to market instability, necessitating close monitoring of these factors[6]

Core Viewpoint - VLCC freight rates have reached the highest level for September since 1990, with VLCCTD3cTCE hitting $96,000/day on September 16, 2025, and expected to maintain high levels in the following days [1][2] Group 1: VLCC Freight Rates - VLCCTD3cTCE reached $96,000/day on September 16, 2025, marking the best September freight rate since 1990, matching the peak from September 2004 [2] - The upcoming week is the last full working week before China's National Day holiday, with a concentration of Middle Eastern cargoes expected for October, alongside the lowest available VLCC capacity in the past year [2] Group 2: Iron Ore Market - The Ximangdu iron ore project officially commenced operations on September 14, 2025, with the first batch of shipments expected in November 2025, potentially supporting the bulk shipping market from Q4 [3] - The project has iron ore reserves exceeding 2.25 billion tons, with an annual production capacity of 120 million tons, requiring at least 155 Capesize vessels for transportation, which is about 7.6% of the current Capesize fleet [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - With OPEC+ increasing oil production and the Ximangdu iron ore project coming online, combined with potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve boosting global commodity demand, the oil and bulk shipping markets are expected to experience a positive cycle starting from Q4 2025 [4] - Companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872), COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026), Haitong Development (603162), HNA Technology (600751), and Air China Ocean Shipping (833171) [4]

申银万国期货：目前船司9月底大柜均价在1500美元左右，折算成现货指数基本和10合约持平，马士基 当前报价已低于5月份报价，为年内新低同时也是2023年底绕行好望角以来新低，国庆前运价继续加速 下行。目前统计到10月周均运力降至28万TEU左右，运力相对有所下降，国庆黄金周后运价下行速率或 有放缓，关注后续船司调降节奏。 现货报价方面，达飞将9月末小柜与大柜订舱价格分别下调50美元和100美元至1010美元/TEU和1620美 元/FEU；赫伯罗特将9月末至10月上旬部分航次运价调降至985美元/TEU。 9月8日至9月12日，中国出口集装箱运输市场基本稳定，多数航线市场运价下跌，拖累综合指数下行。 据海关总署最新公布的数据显示，按美元计，中国8月出口同比增长4.4%，出口贸易延续平稳增长态 势。 机构观点 9月22日，集运指数（欧线）期货大幅走高，截至发稿主力合约报1103.0点，涨幅2.86%。 【消息面汇总】 上周五SCFI综合指数为1198.21点，周环比下跌14.30%，总体呈现加速下跌态势，具体航线来看，美 东、美西运价跌幅居前，创2023年12月以来新低，NCFI欧线环比下跌7.65%，跌至红海 ...

Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report provided by the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4][5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows an overall trend of weak oscillation, with the 10 - contract experiencing a significant decline [8] - In the European - route shipping market, based on EPMI data, the cargo volume is expected to bottom out in October and turn around in November. From late September to late October, shipping companies will compete for cargoes, but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rates will drop to the lowest point in May this year by late October, and shipping companies will start to support prices through contracts after the cargo volume recovers in November [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Freight Index - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently 1198, down 14.31% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1120, down 0.45% [6] - For different routes, SCFI - US West is down 30.97%, SCFIS - US West is up 37.65%, SCFI - US East is down 22.68%, SCFI - Northwest Europe is down 8.84%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe is down 8.05%, and SCFI - Mediterranean is down 5.75% [6] Contracts - For different EC contracts, the prices of all contracts show a downward trend, with the 10 - contract (EC2510) having a relatively large decline of 5.01% [6] Positions - The positions of different contracts are increasing, such as the EC2606 position increasing by 52, the EC2608 position increasing by 28, the EC2410 position increasing by 542, the EC2412 position increasing by 1510, and the EC2604 position increasing by 307 [6] Monthly Spreads - The 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently - 579.5, down 40.1 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is 67.5, down 11.7; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 380.0, down 10.1 [6] Spot Prices - This week, the GEMINI price in early October dropped to 1500, QA dropped to 1550, PA dropped to 1400, and NSC dropped to 1600. The FM freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500 [9] Strategies - A positive spread strategy is recommended for the 10 - 12 contracts [10]

Core Viewpoint - The successful docking of the "Istanbul Bridge" container ship at Fuzhou Port marks the launch of Fujian's first "Ice Silk Road" route, enhancing the global reach of "Fujian manufacturing" and "Chinese manufacturing" [1] Group 1: Route Details - The new route connects major domestic ports including Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Fuzhou, and Ningbo, directly reaching key European hubs such as Felixstowe in the UK, Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Hamburg in Germany, and Gdansk in Poland [1] - The entire journey takes only 19 days, which is 7 days faster than the China-Europe Railway Express and over 20 days quicker than traditional Suez Canal routes, as well as 30 days faster than routes around the Cape of Good Hope [1] Group 2: Cargo and Impact - The inaugural voyage carried lithium batteries from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) and chemical products from Wanhua Chemical, indicating a focus on high-demand goods [1] - This development is expected to significantly boost the efficiency of logistics for Chinese manufacturers, facilitating quicker access to European markets [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency economic data shows that the production side is relatively stable, with the decline of coke oven and asphalt开工率 and a slight increase in blast furnace, PX, and tire开工率, and a continuous decrease in rebar production. The real - estate market has marginally improved, with a slight increase in commercial housing transaction area. Price trends are differentiated, with international - priced crude oil and copper prices slightly falling, and domestically - priced coking coal and rebar prices rising; agricultural product prices are falling while egg prices are rising before the festival. Residents' travel is heating up, with an increase in subway passenger volume and domestic and international flight volumes, and a continuous upward trend in the peak congestion index of first - tier cities. The domestic and international shipping index trends are also differentiated, with the BDI index continuously recovering and the domestic SCFI index accelerating its decline. In the short term, attention should be focused on the implementation of anti - involution and incremental policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of overseas policies [2][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - Coke oven and asphalt开工率 decreased, while blast furnace, PX, and tire开工率 increased slightly. In the week of September 19, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.23 pct, the blast furnace开工率 increased by 0.15 pct, and rebar production decreased by 5.48 tons. The petroleum asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.5 pct. The chemical PX开工率 increased by 2.06 pct compared with the previous week, and PTA remained flat. The all - steel tire开工率 of automobiles increased by 0.07 pct, and the semi - steel tire开工率 increased by 0.2 pct [3][9][10]. 3.2 Demand - Commercial housing transactions increased slightly, and the SCFI index decreased significantly. In the week of September 14, the commercial housing transaction area increased slightly, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, the land supply area decreased, and the residential land transaction premium rate declined. The movie box office decreased by 169 million yuan compared with the previous week. The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 17,700 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 22,700 vehicles. In the week of September 19, the shipping index SCFI decreased by 14.3%, the CCFI decreased by 0.45%, and the BDI increased by 3.62% [3][14][22]. 3.3 Prices - Crude oil and non - ferrous metals prices fell, while coking coal and rebar prices rose. In the week of September 19, the Brent crude oil price fell by 0.46% to $66.68 per barrel; the coking coal futures price rose by 6.9% to 1,216 yuan per ton. The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.71%, - 0.93%, and - 1.95% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price rose by 1.64%. The overall price of agricultural products declined, with the prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 2.01%, + 4.91%, - 1.78%, and + 1.48% respectively compared with the previous week [3][24][27]. 3.4 Logistics - Subway passenger volume and flight volume both increased. In the week of September 19, the subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, the number of domestic and international flights increased, and the peak congestion index of first - tier cities continued to rise [4][30][32].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.99%, down 263 points, closing at 26,281 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.18% [1] - Apple-related stocks surged due to strong pre-order demand for new iPhone models, with companies like Q Technology rising by 9%, Sunny Optical Technology by 5.9%, and GoerTek by 10% [1] - Yihuatong's stock increased by over 16% after forming a fuel cell company with Toyota and announcing the termination of the acquisition of Xuyang Hydrogen Energy [1] - Hong Teng Precision's stock rose by over 17%, benefiting significantly from the ramp-up of rack-level AI servers [1] - Baiguoyuan Group's stock surged over 22% as it plans to raise over 300 million HKD through a placement, indicating early signs of strategic adjustment [1] - Kaisa Capital's stock increased by over 10% after a Hong Kong court rejected a winding-up petition against Kaisa Group, as the company expands its RWA business [1] - China Qinfa's stock rose by over 5% due to improved profitability in its Indonesian operations and tax rate advantages on mining license fees [1] - Cloudwise Technology's stock skyrocketed by over 100%, with a 133% increase in early trading after announcing a global strategic partnership with UBTECH [1] - WuXi AppTec's stock rose by over 6%, reaching a new high after finalizing subscription agreement matters, with WuXi Biologics' shareholding exceeding 50% [1] Group 2 - Huiju Technology's stock increased by over 11% after OpenAI partnered with Luxshare Precision to develop AI hardware, with the company being a member of the Luxshare system [2] - The demand for Chinese export container shipping has shown weakness, leading to continued adjustments in ocean freight market rates, with shipping stocks like COSCO Shipping Energy falling over 6% and Seaspan International down over 5% [2] - West Air's stock dropped by over 8% following a recent crash of the SR22T single-engine aircraft [2] Group 3 - Hong Kong Broadband's stock fell by over 4% after China Mobile Hong Kong completed a tender offer and plans to raise public shareholding ratio through a placement [3]

Market Updates - UBTECH (09880) rose over 4% after signing a global strategic cooperation agreement with Cloud Intelligence Technology on September 21, with initial orders expected to be fulfilled [1] - Changfei Fiber Optics (06869) fell over 2% as shareholders reduced their holdings by a total of 10% in H-shares, with no significant impact on financial data from the hollow-core fiber [1] - Gold stocks mostly increased, with Lingbao Gold (03330) up over 4%, Zhaojin Mining (01818) up over 3%, China Silver Group (00815) up over 4%, and Shandong Gold (01787) up over 3%. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to support a fluctuating upward trend in gold prices [1] - Yihuatong (02402) surged over 18% after partnering with Toyota to establish a fuel cell company and announcing the termination of the acquisition of Xuyang Hydrogen Energy [1] - WuXi AppTec (02268) increased over 6% after finalizing a subscription agreement that will raise WuXi Biologics' stake to over 50% [1] - Hong Kong Broadband (01310) dropped over 3% after announcing a share placement by its controlling shareholder, China Mobile Hong Kong, to restore public shareholding [1] - Huiju Technology (01729) rose over 10% following a strategic cooperation agreement with OpenAI to develop a revolutionary AI device for consumers [1] Shipping Sector - Shipping stocks experienced significant declines, with China Merchants Energy (01138) down over 6%, Seaspan (01308) down over 5%, Orient Overseas International (00316) down over 4%, and China Merchants Industry Holdings (01919) down over 4%. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported weak demand for Chinese export container transport, leading to continued adjustments in ocean freight rates [2] US Market Highlights - Pony.ai (PONY.US) increased by 18.55% as the CFO announced expectations to achieve key profit targets by early 2026 [3] - FedEx (FDX.US) rose 2.32% with projected revenue growth of up to 6% this year, exceeding analyst forecasts [3] - JD.com (JD.US) saw a 0.86% increase, with the iPhone 17 series achieving record sales within the first minute of pre-sale [3] - XPeng Motors (XPEV.US) rose 1.74%, reporting a 137% year-on-year increase in overseas deliveries from January to August [3] - ZTO Express (ZTO.US) fell 0.96%, with analysts noting a significant rebound in express delivery prices in August [3] - WeRide (WRD.US) surged 10.23% after its autonomous bus Robobus received Belgium's first federal-level L4 autonomous driving test license [3] - Tesla (TSLA.US) rose 2.21% as Baird upgraded its rating to "outperform," with expectations for significant stock price increases [4] - Apple (AAPL.US) increased by 3.20% following the successful launch of the iPhone 17 series on September 19 [4] - Quantum Song (QSG.US) rose 13.22%, with the chairman announcing a focus on the trendy toy sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing services at the Haian shipping route port to provide a more convenient, efficient, and comfortable travel experience for passengers during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [1]. Group 1: Efficient Customs Clearance - The company has optimized customs processes to improve service efficiency, including multiple fast security check channels and advanced security equipment to reduce waiting times [3]. - A "green channel" has been established for fresh agricultural product transport vehicles, ensuring priority inspection and release to maintain product freshness [3]. - Online ticket booking and self-service check-in have been introduced, allowing passengers to board quickly without queuing for tickets [3]. Group 2: Caring Services - The company has set up "love service points" in the waiting hall, staffed with professionals to assist passengers with inquiries, luggage handling, and lost items [4]. - Special services are provided for vulnerable groups, including one-on-one assistance to ensure safe boarding and arrival [4]. - Onboard staff will offer attentive service and a variety of meal options to enhance passenger comfort during the journey [4]. Group 3: Information Accessibility - A comprehensive information release system has been established to keep passengers informed about flight schedules and port dynamics through various platforms [5]. - The company collaborates with transportation and meteorological departments to provide timely updates on weather and road conditions, ensuring passenger safety [5]. - Multiple electronic display screens are installed at the port to provide real-time service updates and information [5].

Group 1 - The shipping stocks in Hong Kong experienced significant declines on September 22, with China Merchants Energy (01138.HK) falling by 7.07% to HKD 9.07 [1] - Seaspan Corporation (01308.HK) saw a decrease of 5.61%, trading at HKD 28.92 [1] - Orient Overseas International (00316.HK) dropped by 4.12%, with shares priced at HKD 128.1 [1] - China Cosco Holdings (01919.HK) declined by 3.98%, reaching HKD 13.27 [1]