Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% last week, closing at 3559.95 points, with a high of 3636.17 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.58%, ending at 10991.32 points, with a peak of 11307.62 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.74%, closing at 2322.63 points, with a maximum of 2406.59 points [1] - Global markets also experienced declines, with the Nasdaq Composite down 2.17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.92%, and the S&P 500 down 2.36% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index fell by 3.47%, and the Nikkei 225 Index decreased by 1.58% [1] New Stock Issuance - Three new stocks were issued last week: Guangdong Jianke (301632.SZ), Tianfulong (603406.SH), and Xili Intelligent (920007.BI) [2] Margin Financing and Securities Lending - The total margin financing and securities lending balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 19736.23 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 19600.4 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 135.83 billion yuan [3] - This represents an increase of 324.01 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3] - The Shanghai market's margin balance was 10081.88 billion yuan, up by 205.5 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market's balance was 9654.34 billion yuan, increasing by 118.49 billion yuan [3] - A total of 3446 stocks had margin buying, with 132 stocks exceeding 1 billion yuan in buying amount, led by Xinyi Sheng (107.07 billion yuan), Zhongji Xuchuang (78.72 billion yuan), and Dongfang Caifu (77.06 billion yuan) [3][4] Fund Issuance - Eighteen new funds were launched last week, including various types such as money market funds and mixed funds [5] - Notable funds include Agricultural Bank's Tian Tian Li Money Market Fund D and Huaxia's Growth ETF Linked Y [5] Share Buybacks - Twenty-one companies announced share buybacks last week, with the highest amounts executed in the electric power equipment, defense military, and pharmaceutical industries [7][8] - The top five buyback announcements included Yiguan Technology (300763) with 67.99 million yuan, Zhongji Machinery (600372) with 59.94 million yuan, and Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812) with 42.02 million yuan [7]

Core Insights - As of August 1, the latest market financing balance is 19,662.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.753 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Among the 11 primary industries, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw the largest increase in financing balance, rising by 0.477 billion yuan [1] - The textile and apparel industry recorded the highest percentage increase in financing balance at 1.32% [1] Industry Summary - **Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology**: Latest financing balance is 1,462.30 billion yuan, increased by 4.77 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.33% [1] - **Media**: Financing balance is 433.47 billion yuan, up by 3.89 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.91% increase [1] - **Defense and Military**: Financing balance stands at 714.58 billion yuan, with an increase of 3.48 billion yuan, showing a growth of 0.49% [1] - **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Latest financing balance is 245.03 billion yuan, increased by 2.04 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.84% [1] - **Textile and Apparel**: Financing balance is 72.74 billion yuan, up by 0.95 billion yuan, marking a 1.32% increase, the highest among all sectors [1] - **Non-Bank Financials**: Financing balance decreased by 13.05 billion yuan, now at 1,632.15 billion yuan, with a decline of 0.79% [2] - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Financing balance decreased by 11.03 billion yuan, now at 876.65 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.24% [2] - **Electric Power Equipment**: Financing balance decreased by 8.10 billion yuan, now at 1,411.84 billion yuan, with a decline of 0.57% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in A-shares is a result of profit-taking pressure and changes in expectations after a period of continuous gains, leading to a cooling of market sentiment, which is expected to stabilize and support a slow bull market in the long run [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The current environment of global monetary easing and ample liquidity in A-shares remains unchanged, supporting investor bullish expectations and structural prosperity in new sectors [2][3] - The political bureau meeting emphasized maintaining liquidity and promoting a decline in comprehensive financing costs, which will continue to support the equity market [2] Group 2: Policy and Economic Outlook - There is a cooling expectation regarding incremental policies and pro-cyclical measures, as the July Politburo meeting did not deploy new policies but focused on detailed macroeconomic efforts [2] - The uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule has increased, with market expectations for a rate cut in September dropping from 63% to 38% after the July non-farm payroll data, before rising to 80% following the data release [2] Group 3: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, AI applications, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, defense and military industry, transportation, and non-bank financials [1] - The structural prosperity in new sectors remains unchanged, with positive performance forecasts in industries such as non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and agriculture as of August 1 [3]

Group 1 - The recent pullback in Hong Kong stocks is primarily due to adjustments in internal and external expectations, but the logic of mid-term liquidity easing remains unchanged [1] - The company suggests looking for sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, particularly emphasizing the technology sector [1] - Short-term trading should focus on mid-year performance reports, with recommendations to pay attention to: 1) gaming and internet e-commerce leaders with attractive valuations and improving sentiment; 2) innovative pharmaceuticals and non-bank financials with slightly higher forward 12-month valuation percentiles but high earnings realization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term trend of improving corporate profitability in state-owned enterprises remains unchanged, with expectations for a recovery in overseas manufacturing activities under the backdrop of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The labor market in the U.S. showed signs of weakening in the second quarter, creating conditions for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts [1] - Since July, the external trade environment in the U.S. has stabilized, indicating marginal improvements in the economic sector [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The first recommendation is to invest in upstream resource products (copper, aluminum, oil and petrochemicals) and capital goods (engineering machinery, heavy trucks, forklifts), as well as intermediate products (steel), which will benefit from the recovery of overseas manufacturing and domestic "anti-involution" policies [1] - The second recommendation suggests that equities will outperform bonds in the future, with non-bank financials benefiting from the bottoming of capital returns in the long-term asset side [1] - The third recommendation focuses on consumer sectors aligned with domestic policies centered around "people's livelihood," highlighting dividend-type consumption (food and beverages, home appliances) and certain service industries (hotels, restaurants, leisure tourism) [1]

Group 1 - Recent market pullback is primarily due to the adjustment of internal and external expectations, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a 4.5% decline from its recent peak, compared to a 2.3% decline in the CSI 300 [2][3] - The rise in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index has pressured the relative performance of Hong Kong stocks, with the dollar index surpassing the critical 100 mark [2][3] - The political bureau meeting did not exceed market's optimistic expectations, particularly regarding the cautious stance on cyclical commodities and real estate policies, leading to a cooling in related sectors [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the volatility, the mid-term allocation logic for the Hong Kong market remains unchanged, with a significant inflow of capital observed, including a net inflow of 59 billion HKD from southbound funds, the highest since April 11 [3][4] - The expectation of global liquidity remaining more inclined towards easing rather than tightening supports the Hong Kong market, despite recent dollar strength [3][4] - Recent events in the US, including unexpected job data and changes in Federal Reserve leadership, have raised questions about the credibility of US economic data and the independence of the Fed, impacting dollar stability [3][4] Group 3 - The current market's core contradiction lies in the rapid rotation of sectors, with high concentration and valuation levels in popular sectors, prompting a search for structural opportunities [4] - Strategic allocation should focus on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, particularly emphasizing technology stocks [4] - Tactical trading opportunities are expected to center around earnings reports, with a focus on leading gaming and e-commerce stocks that show value and improving sentiment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is a result of profit-taking pressure and changes in expectations after a period of continuous gains, with a focus on the impact of domestic and international economic indicators and policies [1][4][44]. Changes in Expectations - **Decrease in Expectations for Incremental Policies and Cyclical Recovery**: The Politburo meeting in July did not announce significant new policies, emphasizing the need for macro policies to continue while being more detailed. The July PMI data showed a larger decline in domestic demand compared to external demand, indicating a slowdown in internal demand [1][9]. - **Increased Uncertainty Regarding the Fed's Rate Cut Schedule**: The Fed's July FOMC meeting maintained the current rate, with Powell expressing concerns about inflation and labor market resilience. Following disappointing non-farm payroll data, market expectations for a rate cut in September surged from 38% to 80% [2][20]. - **Diminished Expectations for Improvement in US-China Relations**: Recent US trade agreements with allies and ongoing tensions, such as the Nvidia H20 incident, have led to a more cautious outlook on US-China economic relations [3][27]. Unchanged Factors - **Global Monetary Easing and Abundant A-share Liquidity**: The environment remains supportive for equity markets, with the Politburo emphasizing the need for liquidity and lower financing costs. The two-margin financing has seen a net inflow of approximately 169 billion yuan from late June to the end of July [2][30]. - **Investor Bull Market Expectations Remain Intact**: Historical data shows that 5-10% pullbacks are normal during bull markets, and current investor sentiment remains high, suggesting a potential return to upward trends after adjustments [2][35]. - **Structural Prosperity in New Sectors**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined key areas for focus, including expanding domestic demand and technological innovation. Positive earnings forecasts are noted in sectors such as non-bank financials, metals, electronics, and agriculture [3][41].

Core Viewpoint - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing a divergence, with the insurance industry showing relative stability while the securities and diversified financial sectors are significantly impacted by market volatility [1] Group 1: Securities Industry - The trading volume in the securities industry has surged, with an average daily trading amount of 1.919 trillion yuan in early August, representing a 178% year-on-year increase and a 2.33% month-on-month increase [2] - The margin trading balance has expanded to 198.48 billion yuan, reflecting a 38.14% year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery in investor risk appetite [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has implemented reforms to optimize the IPO pricing and allocation mechanisms, effective August 4, aimed at enhancing pricing stability and attracting more quality companies to list [3] Group 2: Insurance Industry - The insurance industry has seen a key step in liability cost optimization, with the traditional insurance preset interest rate adjusted down to 1.99%, prompting major insurers to lower their preset rates by 25-50 basis points [5] - The life insurance premium income in Q2 2025 grew by 15.2% year-on-year, significantly outperforming Q1, while property insurance maintained steady growth with premiums reaching 964.5 billion yuan, a 5.1% year-on-year increase [6] - The insurance sector's estimated P/EV valuation range is between 0.60-0.91 times, indicating a historical low, with expectations of recovery in investment returns supporting valuation recovery [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent market pullback primarily due to internal and external expectation adjustments, with the Hang Seng Index down 4.5% from its recent peak, compared to a 2.3% decline in the CSI 300[3] - External factors, such as rising US Treasury yields (up to 4.4%) and a strengthening US dollar (breaking the 100 mark), have exerted greater pressure on Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares[5] - Southbound capital inflow surged to a net inflow of HKD 59 billion, marking the highest weekly inflow since April 11, 2025[6] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Emphasis on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, particularly in technology, gaming, and e-commerce leaders[2] - Recommended to focus on stocks with reasonable valuations and improving fundamentals, especially in the innovative pharmaceutical and non-bank financial sectors[7] - The report suggests a tactical approach centered around upcoming mid-year earnings reports, with a focus on companies expected to deliver strong earnings[7]

策 华福证券 2025 年 08 月 03 日 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 美国有望降息且推动通胀上升的概率较高——产 业经济周观点 投资要点： 近期观点 1、 美国经济内生性下行压力较大，预计财政和货币政策有望推 动美国经济维持稳定，且通胀压力不断上升。 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、医疗与消费周报——古方新用与现代科技双轮 驱 动 中 药 产 业 开 启 高 质 量 发 展 新 篇 — — 2025.08.03 2、医药生物 2 主题走出主升形态——2025.08.02 3、反转策略：红利滞涨下的超额选择 —— 2025.08.02 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 证 券 研 究 报 告 2、 中国价格复苏后，对就业呈现正面影响，对产出或有抑制， 总量层面重点是出口价格能否持续改善。 3、 供给驱动的价格复苏更有利于资产价格上升，短期价格波动 对资本市场的影响较小。 4、 重点看好非银，低 ...