Report Overview - Report Title: "Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: August 11, 2025 [3] 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) 1.1 BR Main Contract Overview - Closing price of the main contract on August 8 was 11,515, down 20 from the previous day and up 60 week-on-week [4] - Open interest of the main contract on August 8 was 25,625, down 831 from the previous day and down 8,314 week-on-week [4] - Trading volume of the main contract on August 8 was 41,370, down 18,741 from the previous day [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on August 8 was 10,310, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 week-on-week [4] - Virtual-to-real ratio on August 8 was 12.43, unchanged from the previous day and down 4 week-on-week [4] 1.2 BR Price Structure - Shandong market price on August 8 was 11,600, up 50 from the previous day and unchanged week-on-week [4] - Chuanhua market price on August 8 was 11,450, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week-on-week [4] - Qilu ex-factory price on August 8 was 11,500, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 week-on-week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia on August 8 was 1,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 week-on-week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia on August 8 was 1,750, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week-on-week [4] 1.3 BR Processing and Import/Export - Spot processing profit on August 8 was -163, up 50 from the previous day and down 179 week-on-week [4] - Futures processing profit on August 8 was -248, down 20 from the previous day and down 119 week-on-week [4] - Import profit on August 8 was -82,233, up 47 from the previous day and up 2,840 week-on-week [4] - Export profit on August 8 was -332, down 43 from the previous day and down 222 week-on-week [4] 2. BD (Butadiene) 2.1 BD Price - Shandong market price on August 8 was 9,375, unchanged from the previous day and up 175 week-on-week [4] - Jiangsu market price on August 8 was 9,300, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 week-on-week [4] - Yangzi ex-factory price on August 8 was 9,400, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 week-on-week [4] - CFR China on August 8 was 1,080, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week-on-week [4] 2.2 BD Processing and Import/Export - Carbon four extraction profit data was not available on August 8 [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on August 8 was 206, unchanged from the previous day and up 30 week-on-week [4] - Import profit on August 8 was 386, unchanged from the previous day and up 137 week-on-week [4] - Export profit on August 8 was -1,060, unchanged from the previous day and down 45 week-on-week [4] 3. Downstream Profits - Butadiene rubber production profit on August 8 was -248, down 20 from the previous day and down 119 week-on-week [4] - Styrene-butadiene rubber production profit on August 8 was 550, unchanged from the previous day and down 350 week-on-week [4] - ABS production profit data was not available on August 8 [4] - SBS (791-H) production profit on August 8 was 960, unchanged from the previous day and down 140 week-on-week [4] 4. Price Spreads 4.1 Inter-variety Spreads - RU - BR on August 8 was -10,075, up 856 from the previous day and up 9,554 week-on-week [4] - NR - BR on August 8 was -13,220, up 886 from the previous day and up 8,544 week-on-week [4] - Thai mixed - Butadiene rubber on August 8 was 2,780, down 20 from the previous day and up 330 week-on-week [4] - 3L - Styrene-butadiene rubber on August 8 was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 week-on-week [4] 4.2 Intra-variety Spreads - Standard - non-standard Butadiene rubber price spread on August 8 was 250, up 50 from the previous day and unchanged week-on-week [4] - Styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 on August 8 was 1,050, down 50 from the previous day and down 100 week-on-week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the synthetic rubber market is slightly bullish with oscillations, while in the medium - term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The low - valuation of cis - butadiene rubber makes the market less willing to short. This is due to the long - term policy orientation of "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization supporting the overall commodity valuation, and the neutral fundamentals of the rubber and butadiene sectors. There are short - term speculative rallies at the lower end of the fundamental valuation, but limited upside in the medium - term due to lack of fundamental upward drivers [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (09 contract) was 11,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 41,370 lots, a decrease of 18,741 lots; the open interest was 25,625 lots, a decrease of 831 lots; and the trading volume was 237.957 million yuan, a decrease of 107.947 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract was 35 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day; the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was 105 yuan, an increase of 175 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The price of North China private cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the prices of East China and South China private cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton; the market price of Shandong delivery - grade cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton and 9,375 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.6381%, unchanged; the theoretical full cost was 12,182 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the profit was - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Industry News - **Production**: This week, the output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.29 percentage points. Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week. It is expected that Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda's cis - butadiene rubber plants will restart next week, and the output of cis - butadiene rubber will increase [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025 (week 32), the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Although some production plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week, the inventory of sample production enterprises increased due to the wait - and - see attitude of downstream customers and slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of natural rubber may be strongly sorted due to weather disturbances. Overseas raw material prices are slightly up, and domestic spot inventory is slightly decreasing. The fundamental support is strengthening, so the rubber price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger. The suggested strategies are to expect a side - way but upward - biased trend for single - side trading, and to observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 14.3% year - on - year, with a 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month increase in July [5]. - In the first half of 2025, US tire imports increased by 6.8% year - on - year. Imports from China decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, while those from Thailand increased by 12% year - on - year [5]. - In July 2025, China's rubber imports increased by 3.4% year - on - year to 63.4 tons. From January to July, imports increased by 20.8% year - on - year [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 3.4% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 1.2% year - on - year [7]. Price - This week, both domestic and foreign markets rose synchronously. On August 8, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 increased by 2.57%, 2.03%, 2.57%, and 0.83% respectively compared with last week [11][12]. - The basis and spread data show that the basis of whole - milk to RU01 was - 1000 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, with a 16.28% month - on - month decrease and a 33.77% year - on - year increase. The 01 - 05 spread was - 95 yuan/ton, with a 17.39% month - on - month increase and a 42.42% year - on - year increase [15]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased, while the spread of NR - SGX TSR20 decreased. The non - standard basis of imported rubber showed different changes, and the spread between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber and between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber decreased [24][28][32]. - The price of synthetic rubber was stable, while RU increased, so the spread between synthetic rubber and RU widened [36]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level compared with the same period last year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was at a high level, and the settled funds were still at a high level [41]. Fundamental Data Supply - The temperature and rainfall in southern Thailand returned to normal levels compared with the same period in previous years. Rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan has recently eased [46][47]. - The price of Thai cup - lump increased, while the price of smoked sheets decreased. The prices of glue in Yunnan and Hainan were stable [49]. - The spread between Thai glue and cup - lump and the spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex and whole - milk decreased [58]. - Thailand's rubber processing profit decreased, while Hainan's concentrated latex processing profit improved [61]. - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. Imports of Thai - mixed, Vietnamese - mixed, and Vietnamese - standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while imports of Thai - standard rubber decreased significantly month - on - month [67]. Demand - During the period, the capacity utilization rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises decreased, dragging down the overall rate. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires increased, but the increase was limited [71]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Passenger car sales maintained high growth, and heavy - truck sales improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [74]. Inventory - This week, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased slightly, and both the inventories of dark and light - colored rubber decreased. The decrease in Qingdao port inventory was due to enterprises' replenishment and the decrease in shipments from the main production areas [77].

Core Viewpoint - Asian rubber futures are experiencing a comprehensive upward trend driven by multiple factors, including heavy rainfall in Thailand, adjustments in tariffs between the US and Japan, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The upward movement in rubber prices is influenced by adverse weather conditions, particularly heavy rainfall in Thailand [1] - Tariff adjustments between the US and Japan are contributing to the market dynamics affecting rubber prices [1] - There is an increasing expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is also impacting the rubber market [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (implied by the text description) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (implied by the text description) [1] - Logs: ★☆★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (implied by the text description) [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Overall, for most commodities, the current advice is to take a wait - and - see approach due to various factors such as uncertain supply and demand, and unclear market trends. Only for logs, a bullish investment strategy is recommended [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, with the mainstream sales basis of cotton spot remaining stable, and some high - basis prices still being adjusted downwards. The trading atmosphere in the cotton yarn market was average [2]. - After consecutive declines, cotton prices have stabilized. Low inventory supports prices, but weak downstream orders drag them down. In July, the inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, and processing profits were under pressure [2]. - Macroscopically, Sino - US economic and trade negotiations may remain unchanged in the short term. There are strong expectations of increased production in Xinjiang in the new year, with an increase in planting area and generally ideal weather [2]. - Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see, and maintain a positive spread trading strategy for the 9 - 11 spread [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July was neutral to bearish. Although the production progress accelerated in July due to less rainfall, the overall progress was still slow, and some international institutions lowered the annual production forecast [3]. - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the medium - term forecast indicates that rainfall may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 season [3]. - Overall, the US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price rose. As the production season nears the end, the remaining inventory in cold storage is small, and traders are actively selling at weak prices. The listing volume of early - maturing apples increased, and prices dropped after an initial high [4]. - Due to high temperatures this year, the coloring of early - maturing apples was average, and the quantity of high - quality products was small. As of August 7, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 512,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.1%. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 64,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.87% [4]. - The market's focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Although the western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on yield was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the yield forecast. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated, NR rose slightly, and BR declined slightly. The domestic natural rubber spot price continued to fall, while the synthetic rubber spot price was generally stable. The Asian price of butadiene at foreign ports was stable, and European prices varied. The prices in the Thai raw material market fluctuated [6]. - In terms of supply, the global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, with heavy rainfall in major Southeast Asian producing areas. This week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased slightly [6]. - In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire plants declined slowly this week, the end - market demand was still weak, tire companies' sales were poor, and the inventory of semi - steel tires increased while that of all - steel tires decreased [6]. - In terms of inventory, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 631,800 tons this week, and both the bonded and general trade inventories decreased. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,700 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory increased to 14,700 tons [6]. - Overall, demand is slowly weakening, natural rubber supply is increasing, synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, rubber inventory is falling, and market sentiment is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures slightly declined. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5,850 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,180 yuan/ton; and the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,080 yuan/ton [7]. - As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.048 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. In July, China imported 2.877 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 557,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 153,000 tons [7]. - Currently, domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is still weak. After entering August, downstream demand may gradually pick up as the peak season approaches. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. The spot price in Rizhao increased by 10 yuan [8]. - In terms of supply, it is still the off - season for New Zealand log shipments, and the domestic arrival volume of coniferous logs remains low. Although the foreign price has risen for two consecutive months, domestic spot prices remain weak, and traders' pressure has increased, so it is expected that imports will not increase in the short term, and domestic supply may remain low [8]. - In terms of demand, after entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation is good [8]. - As of August 1, the total log inventory at national ports was 3.17 million cubic meters, with relatively low inventory and small inventory pressure [8]. - Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and spot prices are relatively low. As the peak season is approaching, log inventory will gradually decrease, and spot prices are expected to rebound in the short term, with futures prices likely to continue rising. A bullish investment strategy is recommended [8]

Report Summary - The retail sales of the national passenger car market in July were 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.4%. The cumulative retail sales since this year were 12.728 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The market showed a high-base deceleration feature and followed a "low at the beginning, high in the middle, and flat at the end" trend [5]. - The rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, high-precipitation areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and sporadic areas in southern Cambodia, while precipitation in most other areas was low, which had a greater impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, high-precipitation areas were mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which had a weaker impact on rubber tapping [5]. - The global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in July was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The resilience of the global manufacturing industry weakened compared with the previous month and continued to operate weakly [5]. - In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 634,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.84% and a year-on-year increase of 3.43%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 4.709 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 20.77% [5]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials remained stable. The supply-demand structure of natural rubber was relatively loose. The price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, fluctuated within a narrow range. The inventory of butadiene rubber plants increased slightly. The operating rate of tire enterprises remained stable [5]. - This week, the rubber futures market maintained a volatile trend. As the premium of macro sentiment faded and the internal contradictions in the fundamentals were not obvious, there was no clear trend guidance and the amplitude narrowed. The overall rubber demand had support at the bottom but faced pressure at the top. The cost support of rubber remained stable. The inventory pressure was greater than that of the same period last year but the increase was relatively limited. Overall, the fundamentals of rubber were moderately weak, mainly due to the expectation of increased supply in the future. With overseas tariffs in effect, there was no obvious increase in tire demand. The weak expectation made it difficult for prices to break through the upside, and prices continued to fluctuate within a range. External macro disturbances were likely to widen the price fluctuation range [5]. Multi-Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The "anti-involution" related industry bill in China provided policy guidance for prices [8]. - The inventory structure of all-steel tire enterprises improved and the operating rate was good [8]. Bearish Factors - The inventory reduction of semi-steel tires was not obvious [8]. - Rubber imports increased [8]. - Global manufacturing data was weak [8]. Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Prices - As of August 7, the price of fresh latex in Thailand was 54 Thai baht per kilogram; the price of cup lump was 48.3 Thai baht per kilogram; the price of latex in Yunnan, China was 14,000 yuan per ton; and the price of latex in Hainan was 13,100 yuan per ton. This week, raw material prices showed little fluctuation. The impact of weather in the main rubber producing areas weakened, and prices remained stable in the short term. Cost support remained stable [9]. Natural Rubber Supply-Demand Structure - As of August 1, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 75,472 tons, continuing the destocking trend since mid-May and increasing by 13,730 tons compared with the same period last year. The spot inventory of general trade was 556,298 tons, showing a slow inventory accumulation trend since the beginning of the year and increasing by 142,534 tons compared with the same period last year. The third-party inventory in China was 1,288,849 tons, fluctuating within a narrow range this year and increasing by 73,929 tons compared with last year. Overall, the rubber supply-demand structure this year was relatively loose [12]. Butadiene Price for Butadiene Rubber - This week, the domestic butadiene market showed a slight upward trend with limited increase. Although there were sporadic plant restarts during the week, there were plant overhauls in Shandong and South China, resulting in a decline in production. At the same time, the restarted plant in Shandong had no spot for external sales, and the commissioning of new产能 in the Northeast was postponed. The supply did not increase as expected, which supported the positive sentiment of merchants. Recently, the operating rates of downstream industries were acceptable, and the phased buying boosted the trading volume. The suppliers of butadiene raised prices, driving the market to rise slightly. However, due to the impact of the downstream product trends, the market increase was limited. As of the week of August 8, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 406.2857 yuan per ton. The price of butadiene rubber was weak and the corporate profits were under pressure [13]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of the week of August 8, the inventory of butadiene rubber plants was 24,150 tons, an increase of 350 tons from last week. The inventory of traders was 7,290 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week. This week, traders reduced inventory slightly while plant inventory increased. The overall inventory structure was loose [15]. Tire Enterprise Operating Rates - As of the week of August 8, the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a month-on-month increase of 0.80% and a year-on-year increase of 0.73%. The average inventory turnover days of sample enterprises were 39.37 days, a month-on-month decrease of 0.08 days and a year-on-year decrease of 3.66 days. The inventory pressure of all-steel tire enterprises was alleviated and the operating rate remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.93%. The average inventory turnover days of sample enterprises were 46.45 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.81 days and a year-on-year increase of 9.50 days. The inventory reduction of semi-steel tire enterprises remained difficult, which restricted the enthusiasm of enterprises to start production [17]. Futures Contract Spreads - As of August 7, the spread of the September "RU - NR" contract showed a strong volatile trend; the spread of the September "NR - BR" contract fluctuated within a range [19]. Market Outlook - From the perspective of the downstream tire demand for rubber, the export performance of all-steel tires has been excellent this year, which has reduced the inventory accumulation pressure in factories and boosted the operating rate of enterprises. However, the slow inventory reduction of semi-steel tire enterprises has suppressed the recovery of the operating rate. Overall, rubber demand has support at the bottom but faces pressure at the top. - The impact of weather in the main rubber producing areas has weakened, and raw material prices have remained stable in the short term, providing stable cost support. - As overseas supply recovers, rubber imports continue to increase. The inventory pressure is greater than that of the same period last year, but the increase is relatively limited. - Overall, the fundamentals of rubber are moderately weak, mainly due to the expectation of increased supply in the future. With overseas tariffs in effect, there is no obvious increase in tire demand. The weak expectation makes it difficult for prices to break through the upside, and prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. External macro disturbances are likely to widen the price fluctuation range [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rubber market shows a volatile performance. Supply - side: In Thailand, the raw material glue price is 54 Thai baht per kilogram, and the cup - lump price is 48.3 Thai baht per kilogram; in Yunnan, the price of glue for producing whole - milk rubber is 14,000 yuan per ton, and for concentrated latex is 14,400 yuan per ton; in Hainan, the price of glue for producing whole - milk rubber is 13,300 yuan per ton, and for concentrated latex is 14,000 yuan per ton. Mid - stream inventory: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory is 1.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,800 tons (a decline of 0.4%); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber is 804,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber is 485,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Downstream demand: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points. Currently, the commodity market sentiment is changeable, and the rubber market is disturbed by external and relevant news in the short term, lacking a clear logic. It may continue to maintain a volatile performance in the short term. The operation suggestion is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - In the domestic market, the RU main contract is at 15,525 (up 30 from the previous value), the NR main contract is at 12,350 (up 30), and the BR main contract is at 11,535 (up 30). In the overseas market, Tocom RSS3 is at 317.1 yen per kilogram (down 2.8), and Sicom TF is at 168.4 cents per kilogram (unchanged) [3] Futures Spreads - In the inter - period spreads, RU2601 - RU2509 is at 975 (up 15), RU2605 - RU2601 is at 120 (down 10), NR main - secondary main is at - 50 (up 15), and BR main - secondary main is at 25 (up 20). In the inter - variety spreads, RU - NR is at 3,175 (unchanged), RU - BR is at 3,990 (unchanged), and NR - BR is at 815 (unchanged). In the inter - market spreads, RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) is at 11 (up 27), and NR - Sicom TF ($) is at 37 (up 7) [3] Raw Material Prices - In Thailand (in Thai baht per kilogram), the price of smoked sheet rubber is 61.65 (up 1.25), the price of raw rubber sheet is 58.55 (down 0.15), the price of glue is 54.00 (unchanged), and the price of cup - lump is 48.30 (up 0.15). In Hainan and Yunnan (in yuan per ton), the price of Hainan glue for concentrated latex is 14,000 (up 200), the price of Hainan glue for whole - milk rubber is 13,100 (unchanged), the price of Yunnan glue for concentrated latex is 14,300 (down 100), and the price of Yunnan rubber block for whole - milk rubber is 14,000 (unchanged) [3] Factory Costs and Profits - The delivery profit of whole - milk rubber: in Hainan it is 454 (up 34), in Yunnan it is - 626 (up 34). The production profit of concentrated latex is 728 (up 9). The profit of Hainan is 700 (down 130). The gross profit of Thai smoked sheet rubber is 2,644 (up 101), the gross profit of Thai 20 - number rubber is - 184 (up 3), and the gross profit of domestic 9710 is 250 (up 50) [3] Domestic Spot - For light - colored rubber, the price of old whole - milk rubber is 14,550 (up 50), the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,650 (unchanged), the price of Thai mixed rubber is 14,350 (up 30), and the price of Malaysian mixed rubber is 14,300 (up 30). For dark - colored rubber, the price of Thai standard rubber is 12,664 (up 25), the price of domestic standard - two rubber is 13,700 (up 50), and the price of domestic 9710 is 14,250 (up 50). For latex, the price of Shanghai: Huangchunfa bulk is 11,600 (unchanged), and the price of Shanghai: Hainan bulk is 11,100 (unchanged). For synthetic rubber, the price of cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,550 (down 50), the price of styrene - butadiene SBR1502 is 12,050 (up 50), and the price of Japanese SBR1712 is 10,950 (up 100) [3] Overseas Spot - For mixed rubber, the CIF price of Thai mixed rubber is 1,780 (up 5), and the CIF price of Malaysian mixed rubber is 1,770 (up 5). For standard rubber, the CIF price of Thai standard rubber is 1,780 (up 5), the CIF price of Malaysian standard rubber is 1,780 (up 5), and the CIF price of Indian standard rubber is 1,770 (up 5) [3] Spot - Futures Spreads - For RU spreads, RU - Thai mixed rubber is - 15, RU - old whole - milk rubber is 200 (down 35), and RU - Vietnamese 3L is + 15. For NR spreads, the delivery profit of NR - Thai standard rubber is - 573 (up 3), the delivery profit of NR - Indian standard rubber is - 70 (up 2), and the delivery profit of NR - Malaysian standard rubber is - 501 (up 3) [3] Spot Spreads - For variety spreads, the price difference between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber ($) is 10 (unchanged), the price difference between Vietnamese 3L and Thai mixed rubber is 300 (down 30), the price difference between domestic standard - two rubber and Thai mixed rubber is - 650 (up 20), the price difference between old whole - milk rubber and Vietnamese 3L is - 100 (up 50), and the price difference between domestic 9710 and Thai mixed rubber is - 100 (up 20) [3] Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index is 98.2230 (unchanged), the US dollar/Chinese yuan is at 7.1345 (down 0.006), the US dollar/Japanese yen is at 147.3565 (unchanged), the US dollar/Thai baht is at 32.3650 (unchanged). For interest rates, SHIBOR - overnight is 1.315 (down 0.001), and SHIBOR - seven - day is 1.434 (down 0.008) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - Supply: Labor return in Cambodia and disrupted rubber tapping in Thailand may lead to a stronger raw material price expectation. Attention should be paid to raw material supply during the peak season [1]. - Demand: Replacement demand shows decent performance, and market trading activity is expected to increase with the implementation of price policies. Winter snow - tire agents are starting to stock up, and order activity is expected to rise in the next period. If raw material supply is smooth during the peak season, consider short - selling opportunities [1]. Log Industry - Supply: Supply pressure may increase. The number of arriving ships at ports will increase this week [3]. - Demand: In August, high - temperature weather leads to a market off - season. Future shipments are expected to decrease, and spot prices remain under pressure. The short - term futures market is expected to fluctuate widely between 800 - 850 [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda Ash: This week, production has rebounded significantly, inventory has increased, and the futures market has weakened. The supply - demand situation shows an obvious surplus. After the second - quarter photovoltaic installation rush, photovoltaic glass capacity growth has slowed, and float glass capacity is stable with future supply - demand pressure. There is no growth expectation for demand. Consider short - selling on price rebounds during the traditional maintenance season in August [4]. - Glass: The futures market has weakened significantly, and market sentiment has declined. After the previous price increase, inventory has shifted from manufacturers to middle - men, and there may be a rush to sell. Deep - processing orders are weak, and the glass demand side faces pressure. The industry needs capacity clearance. Track policy implementation and downstream stocking performance in August [4]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Supply: Pay attention to the resumption plans of large enterprises in Xinjiang and the progress of the anti - cut - throat competition meeting in the southwest. Under the anti - cut - throat competition policy, the overall price center of industrial silicon may move up. If raw material costs such as coal rise, the price center of industrial silicon is expected to increase [5]. - Price Range: The main price fluctuation range in August may be between 8000 - 10000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price falls to 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon Industry - Supply - Demand: In August, both supply and demand of polysilicon are increasing, but the supply growth rate is higher. Domestic polysilicon production in July was about 10.78 million tons, and weekly production increased by 4% to 2.65 million tons. August production is expected to be around 12.5 million tons [6]. - Price Strategy: The main price fluctuation range may be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips and buying put options on price increases [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.69% [1]. - The basis of whole - latex rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 130 to - 1125, a decline of 13.07% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to - 975, a decline of 1.56% [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 120, an increase of 7.69% [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, a growth of 44.23% [1]. - Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, a decline of 12.03% [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 5798 tons to 640,384 tons, an increase of 0.91% [1]. Log Industry Futures and Spot Prices - Log 2509 remained unchanged at 832.5, with a 0.00% change [3]. - Log 2511 decreased by 0.5 to 840.0, a decline of 0.06% [3]. Supply - In June, port shipping volume increased by 37,000 cubic meters to 1.76 million cubic meters, a growth of 2.12% [3]. - The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 53, a decline of 8.62% [3]. Inventory - As of August 1, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.17 million cubic meters [3]. Demand - As of August 1, the average daily log shipment was 64,200 cubic meters [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - North China's glass price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.84% [4]. - The glass 2505 contract decreased by 10 to 1309, a decline of 0.76% [4]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - North China's soda ash price remained unchanged at 1350 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change [4]. - The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 12 to 1412, a decline of 0.84% [4]. Supply - Soda ash production increased by 45,000 tons to 744,700 tons, a growth of 6.42% [4]. - Float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons, with a 0.00% change [4]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory increased by 2.348 million weight - boxes to 61.847 million weight - boxes, an increase of 3.95% [4]. - Soda ash factory inventory increased by 69,300 tons to 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% [4]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - East China's oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9250 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change [5]. - The basis of S15530 increased by 45 to 595, an increase of 8.18% [5]. Monthly Spreads - The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 130 to 40, an increase of 144.44% [5]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production decreased by 41,400 tons to 300,800 tons, a decline of 12.10% [5]. - Xinjiang's industrial silicon production decreased by 43,300 tons to 167,500 tons, a decline of 20.55% [5]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 1200 tons to 116,900 tons, a decline of 1.02% [5]. - Social inventory increased by 7000 tons to 547,000 tons, an increase of 1.30% [5]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change [6]. - The N - type material basis increased by 1235 to - 3110, an increase of 28.42% [6]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract decreased by 1235 to 20110, a decline of 2.41% [6]. - The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 2075 to - 10, an increase of 99.52% [6]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 29,000 tons to 294,000 tons, a growth of 10.94% [6]. - Monthly polysilicon production increased by 49,000 tons to 1.01 million tons, a growth of 5.10% [6]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 4000 tons to 233,000 tons, an increase of 1.75% [6]. - Silicon wafer inventory increased by 9600 GW to 19,110 GW, an increase of 5.29% [6].

Report on the Rubber Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - Monitor the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in major producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider short - selling at high prices [1]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.69%. The basis of whole - latex rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 130 to - 1,125, a decline of 13.07%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to - 975, a decline of 1.56%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 120, an increase of 7.69%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 5 to 1,095, an increase of 0.46% [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's rubber production was 392,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.23%. Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.03%. India's production was 62,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.82%. China's production was 103,200 tons, a year - on - year increase [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory increased by 5,798 tons to 640,384 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 2,318 tons to 39,716 tons, an increase of 6.20% [1]. Report on the Log Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure may increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the spot price is still under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 800 - 850 [3]. 2. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Price - The price of Log 2509 remained unchanged at 832.5. The price of Log 2511 decreased by 0.5 to 840, a decline of 0.06%. The price of Log 2601 remained unchanged at 841.5 [3]. Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.183. The import theoretical cost increased by 13.84 yuan to 818.70 yuan [3]. Supply - In June, the port shipping volume was 1.76 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 53, a decline of 8.62% [3]. Inventory - As of August 1, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.17 million cubic meters. The inventory in Shandong increased by 20,000 cubic meters to 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.04%. The inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 56,000 cubic meters to 960,000 cubic meters, a decline of 5.55% [3]. Demand - As of August 1, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters. The demand last week increased by 10,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [3]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry 1. Core Viewpoint Soda Ash - The supply is in excess. The spot sales are weak. Consider short - selling at high prices in the short - term and monitor the implementation of policies and the load - regulation of soda ash plants [4]. Glass - The futures price has weakened, and the market sentiment has declined. The overall spot price is difficult to increase further. Hold short positions and monitor the implementation of policies and the stocking performance of downstream industries [4]. 2. Summary by Directory Glass - related Price and Spread - The prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased, while the price in Central China remained unchanged. The prices of Glass 2505 and Glass 2509 decreased [4]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of Soda Ash 2505 and Soda Ash 2509 decreased [4]. Supply - The soda ash production rate increased from 80.27% to 85.41%, and the weekly production increased by 45,000 tons to 744,700 tons [4]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 2.348 million weight - cases to 61.847 million weight - cases, an increase of 3.95%. The soda ash factory inventory increased by 69,300 tons to 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton in August. Consider buying at low prices when the price drops to 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to position control and risk management [5]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 45 to 595, an increase of 8.18% [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 130 to 40, an increase of 144.44%. The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 to - 25, a decline of 66.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.10%. The organic silicon DMC production was 199,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.54% [5]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 1,200 tons to 116,900 tons, a decline of 1.02%. The social inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 547,000 tons, an increase of 1.30% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon price fluctuates and declines. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low prices and buying put options to short at high prices [6]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type material increased by 1,235 to - 3,110, an increase of 28.42% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract decreased by 1,235 to 20,110, a decline of 2.41%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 2,075 to - 10, an increase of 99.52% [6]. Fundamental Data - The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.02 GW, a year - on - year increase of 9.27%. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.94% [6]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 233,000 tons, an increase of 1.75%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 960,000 pieces to 19.11 million pieces, an increase of 5.29% [6].