News Summary Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations in inventory levels and prices, influenced by production adjustments, raw material costs, and demand uncertainties. Group 1: Inventory and Production - As of May 23, stainless steel futures inventory recorded 140,425 tons, a decrease of 17,453 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On May 22, regional market stainless steel inventory totaled 153,280 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 44.36% and a year-on-year increase of 16.27% [1] - Cold-rolled stainless steel inventory was 26,950 tons, up 3.45% week-on-week and 0.96% year-on-year; hot-rolled stainless steel inventory was 126,330 tons, up 57.66% week-on-week and 45.28% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Recent news of steel mills reducing production and rising nickel-iron prices provide some support for stainless steel prices, but slow inventory digestion and lack of demand improvement continue to exert pressure [2] - The price of stainless steel is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 to 13,200 [2] Group 3: Raw Material and Supply Chain - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy has increased nickel resource supply costs, while the Philippines plans to implement a nickel ore export ban starting June 2025, intensifying raw material disruptions [3] - Indonesian nickel-iron production capacity is recovering, leading to a noticeable decline in nickel-iron prices, which reduces raw material cost support [3] - Steel mills are maintaining normal production but are reducing output of the loss-making 300 series stainless steel in favor of increasing production of the 200 and 400 series products, indicating ongoing supply pressure [3] Group 4: Demand and Market Sentiment - Terminal construction projects are gradually commencing, entering the traditional peak demand season, but macro market uncertainties are leading to cautious attitudes towards high-priced goods [3] - Recent domestic inventory has seen a slight increase, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [3]

| | | | The Press of the control of the program and the first of the | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3809.2 | -0.57% | -096% | 2.50% | -1.28% | -2.85% | | | 上证50期货 | 2668.6 | -01-94 | -0.91% | 2.28% | 0.10% | -0.35% | | | 中证500期货 | 5578 | -0.304 | 0.294 | 1.47% | -4.15% | -2.02% | | | 中证1000期货 | 5915 | -0.17% | 0.734 | 1.96% | -2.22% | 1.14% | | 国债 | 2年期国债期货 | 102.41 | -0.02% | 0.00% | -0.21% | -0.01% | -0.55% ...

Group 1 - The "Ningde Cup" Global New Energy and New Materials High-Level Talent Innovation and Entrepreneurship Competition was launched in Ningde, Fujian Province, attracting over 110 talents from government, universities, research institutions, and enterprises [1][3] - Ningde aims to leverage the competition to attract high-level talents and quality projects, enhancing its talent policies and ecosystem [3] - Ningde has established over 210 leading enterprises in the lithium battery new energy, stainless steel new materials, new energy vehicles, and copper materials sectors, maintaining rapid growth in these industries [3] Group 2 - The city's industrial output value for 2024 is projected to reach 647 billion yuan, with the lithium battery new energy industry contributing 250.8 billion yuan and the stainless steel new materials industry contributing 227 billion yuan [3] - Ningde holds the global market share leadership in power batteries and energy storage batteries for eight and four consecutive years, respectively, and has been the world's largest stainless steel producer for ten years [3] - Currently, Ningde has 571 talent innovation platforms and has attracted over 2,000 high-level industry talents and more than 4,800 R&D talents [5]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing weak fluctuations with stable spot prices, while inventory pressures are manageable [1][2] Raw Materials - The Philippine nickel ore market is beginning June resource procurement, but shipments are hindered by rainfall, resulting in no transactions [1][2] - In Indonesia, the domestic nickel ore price remains stable with a slight increase of $0.65-$1, while overall prices have seen a minor uptick due to tight supply during the rainy season [1][2] - Nickel iron prices are stable but under pressure from steel mills, with transaction prices around 965-970 yuan/nickel (tax included) [1][2] Supply - According to Mysteel, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills in May is 3.4899 million tons, a 0.4% decrease month-on-month but a 5.8% increase year-on-year [1] - The production of the 300 series is 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1] Inventory - Social inventory data shows a weekly decline, with a reduction in warehouse receipts [1] - As of May 23, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 531,000 tons, down 30,800 tons week-on-week [1] - On May 26, stainless steel futures inventory is 139,121 tons, a decrease of 17,241 tons week-on-week [1] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market remains under pressure with high costs, and the trading logic has returned to fundamentals after macroeconomic sentiments have stabilized [2] - Demand is slowly recovering, primarily driven by just-in-time inventory replenishment [2] - The overall supply surplus remains unchanged, with some steel mills reducing 300 series output while increasing 200 and 400 series production to alleviate losses [2]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 25 日 镍：弱预期压制镍价，现实成本支撑 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：矿端短线坚挺但远端担忧情绪有所降温，冶炼端供应预期压制上方弹性。首先，印尼高 品位镍矿偏紧支撑一体化火法成本，1.6%镍矿溢价边际上行至 27 美金/湿吨，总价同比增加 26%（+11.4 美金）至 54.3 美金/湿吨，叠加补库需求导致短线累库不及预期，镍价下方或仍有支撑。不过，在菲律宾 与印尼矿价经济性差逐步收敛后，印尼矿端上行速度有望放缓。同时，参照前两年规律，第三季度或是印 尼配额释放和镍矿溢价回调的关键阶段，市场对于配额释放仍有期待。其次，且由于不锈钢减产负反馈对 镍铁施压，镍铁边际重新回到累库，SMM 5 月中旬的镍铁库存 29554.5 吨，同/环比+36%/+4%。从转产经 济性的角度考虑，盘面一度打开镍铁转向高冰镍的窗口，且中间品供应边际稍有增加，或对精炼镍上方估 值形成一定的拖累。建议未来重点关注印尼镍矿溢价和精炼镍库存变化。本周 LME 库存有所回升，而精 ...

新华社北京5月25日电 题："只要产品够硬总会赢得机遇"——中美互降关税落地一线观察 新华社记者唐诗凝、古一平、王丰 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布已近半月。随着5月14日双方互降关税举措落地，近期记者深入 多家外贸企业调研，深切感受到市场对此次中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识的积极回应：一波"订单 潮"涌来，工厂又现忙碌，货船舱位紧张…… "咱们得快点！"……北京时间5月12日17时许，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布2小时后，深圳市 盛天龙视听科技有限公司就收到了好几封来自美国客户的"催单"邮件。 "关税能降下来，包括所有中间商、美国终端商在内的合作伙伴们，大家都高兴。"公司销售部工作人员 向聪俐对记者说。 按下"暂停键"的对美外贸订单迎来重启，美国合作伙伴抓紧囤货，国内外贸企业加速恢复对美出口商品 生产，多地工厂开足马力……争分夺秒的忙碌背后，是大洋两岸合作伙伴对互利共赢的共同期待。 美国服装与鞋类协会发表声明说，协会对美中经贸会谈取得实质性进展表示欢迎，认为这可能有助于缓 解过去一个多月以来的美中贸易紧张局面。 5月18日，在美国纽约举办的2025年国际当代家具展上，美国康涅狄格州家具企业赫勒公司总 ...

【现货】据Mysteel，截至5月22日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格13150元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧 价格13150元/吨，日环比持平；基差440元/吨，日环比下跌10元/吨。 【原料】菲律宾镍矿市场多开始6月资源采购，但是受降雨影响装船受阻，暂未有成交落地；印尼5月二 期镍矿内贸升水维持+26-27不变，内贸基价上涨0.65-1美元，整体价格小幅上涨，雨季影响下镍矿供应 仍偏紧。镍铁价格维持弱稳，镍铁采购仍以压价为主，最新成交华南某钢厂高镍铁招标价940元/镍（舱 底含税），近期主流交报价多在960-970元/镍（舱底含税），国内工厂利润亏损。 【供应】 据Mysteel统计，5月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢预计排产348.99万吨，月环比减少0.4%，同比增加 5.8%；其中300系177.6万吨，环比减少2.6%，同比增加7.5%。4月不锈钢粗钢产量350.25万吨，300系产 量182.43万吨。 【库存】社会库存周度数据整体回落，仓单近期一定减少。截至5月23日，无锡和佛山300系社会库存 53.1万吨，周环比减少3.08万吨。5月22日不锈钢期货库存141742吨，周环比减少16973吨。 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 22 日星期四 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金继续上行，最终收涨 0.76%，报 3314.36 美元/盎司，创 | | 研究员：王伟 | 近一周新高。伦敦银最终收涨 0.95%，报 33.38 美元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 收涨 0.92%，报 777.84 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.86%，报 8285 元/千克。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 2.美元指数：美元指数持续下行，最终收跌 0.56%，报 99.60。 | | | 3.美债收益率：受累于 20 年期美债标售需求疲软，10 年期美债收益率收报盘中一度触 | | 及 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2 月以来新高 4.609%，最终收于 4.587%。 | | 期 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2506 合约收于 77920 元，跌幅 0.22%，沪铜指数减仓 6043 手至 52.50 万 手。 2.现货：现货商甩货，现货升水大幅下降。上海报升水 135 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 140 元/吨。天津报贴水 70 元/吨，下降 70 元/吨，由于持货商对后市悲观低价出货。广东库存 和铜价均走低，持货商挺价出货，报升水 205 元/吨，上涨 20 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 5 月 22 日，铜矿商自由港印尼公司称，其位于东爪哇岛、耗资 37 亿美元 ...

2025年05月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：夜盘大幅反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 3 | | 铜：避险情绪升温，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然承压 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势格局依旧 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单累库，关注市场情绪变动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 26 | | 原木：弱势 ...