Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel Market**: The Shanghai nickel market is experiencing a situation where short - term prices are supported while inventories are at a high level and accumulating. The bearish logic lies in high - level inventory accumulation at the smelting end and expected supply pressure, while the bullish support comes from the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policies and limited downward space for short - term pyrometallurgical costs. Long - term volatility may increase [2]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The stainless steel market lacks effective upward drivers and has limited downward imagination space. It is recommended to adopt a conservative low - level range trading strategy in the short term and a long - term bottom - seeking and re - long strategy. The market is in a long - and short - term game between expectations and reality [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - **Nickel**: The smelting end's inventory accumulation suppresses prices, but the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policies provides support. The substitution of nickel iron for nickel plates in the nickel alloy sector and the expected increase in pure nickel production limit the upward elasticity of nickel prices [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The early over - export effect has been digested, and overseas trade consultations have eased tariff concerns. However, the traditional peak season has fallen short of expectations, and post - real - estate cycle consumption remains weak. Although the overall inventory has declined from the high level, the absolute inventory of the mid - and upstream is still at a relatively high historical level, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply - side elasticity is relatively large, which may limit the upward space of stainless steel prices. The cost has slightly decreased, and the overall inventory is still high, but the marginal inventory accumulation rate has converged [3]. 3.2 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: China's social inventory increased by 1050 tons to 48746 tons. Among them, warehouse receipt inventory increased by 4578 tons to 31388 tons, spot inventory decreased by 3528 tons to 13288 tons, and bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 4070 tons. LME inventory increased by 1248 tons to 252102 tons [5]. - **New Energy**: On October 31, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by - 1, - 2, and +1 months - on - month to 4, 7, and 7 days respectively; on October 24, the precursor inventory changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.9 days; on October 30, the ternary material inventory changed by - 0.3 month - on - month to 6.9 days [5]. - **Nickel Iron - Stainless Steel**: On October 31, SMM nickel iron inventory was 29564 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and a 27% year - on - year increase. In September, SMN stainless steel mill inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a 4% year - on - month increase and a 1% month - on - month decrease. On October 30, 2025, SMM stainless steel social inventory slightly increased to 947000 tons; the total social inventory of Steel Union stainless steel was 1831096 tons, with a 0.36% week - on - week increase, and the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 651940 tons, with a 0.4% week - on - week increase [5]. 3.3 Market News - Indonesia's forestry working group took over a 0.3% area of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [7]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 198 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees for 2025 [7]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order, requiring the approval of the next year's mine RKAB to be completed by November 15 this year. If the approval result is not notified through the online system, it will be automatically approved on November 15. According to the transition clause, the approved 2026 RKAB before the order takes effect can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31, 2026 [7]. - US President Trump announced on social media that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [8]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking The report provides weekly tracking data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, import prices, premiums, and spreads of related products [10]. 3.5 Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless steel, and related raw materials over the years [11][13][15][17][19][21][23].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated October 31, 2025 [1] Report's Core Views Bullish Factors - Strong demand in the new energy sector, with increased production of ternary precursors, is driving up the price of nickel sulfate [3]. - High prices of nickel ore, and with the rainy season approaching in the Philippines, mines are more inclined to hold prices [3]. Bearish Factors - Weak fundamentals of refined nickel, with continuous accumulation of social inventory, suppressing the rebound of nickel prices [3]. - Insufficient demand in the stainless - steel sector, and the "Golden October" peak season was lackluster, with high social inventory [3]. Trading Advisory View - The macro sentiment and the current situation of fundamental oversupply counterbalance each other, limiting the upside potential of prices [3] Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - The closing prices of SHFE nickel contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased by -1.16%, -0.96%, -0.98%, -0.98% respectively, and LME nickel 3M decreased by -0.90%. The trading volume decreased by -23.48%, and the open interest decreased by -1.0%. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 17.61%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by -77.14% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing prices of stainless - steel contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased by -1%, -0.66%, -0.35%, -0.23% respectively. The trading volume decreased by -33.67%, and the open interest decreased by -22.61%. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased by -0.56%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 15.18% [5] Spot Prices - The prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel increased by 0.24%, 0.21%, 0.25%, 0.20%, 0.29% respectively [5] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 1094 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 66 tons, stainless - steel social inventory increased by 0.4 thousand tons, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 174 tons [7] Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts showing the historical trends of stainless - steel futures closing prices, nickel spot average prices, nickel and stainless - steel inventory, upstream nickel ore prices and inventory, downstream nickel sulfate prices and profit margins, and stainless - steel production and profit margins [8][9][14]

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Weak Oscillation - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated November 02, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% - 4%, and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. There are internal disagreements within the Fed, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 74.7%. In China, the September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. [35] - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. Refined nickel premiums were stable with average trading. Nickel ore circulation in the Philippines was affected by weather, while the Indonesian nickel ore market had ample supply. Due to increased sales of downstream ternary materials, the nickel sulfate price was firm. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless steel main contract, it is about 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton. [35] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend chart of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [6][7][8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - A chart shows China's nickel ore port inventory, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [10][11][12] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - A chart displays the price of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) [13][14] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - A chart shows the average price of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - A chart presents China's monthly import volume of ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [18][19] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: A chart shows the closing price of stainless steel futures (continuous) [20][21] - **Futures Position**: A chart displays the stainless steel futures position from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [22][23][24] - **Inventory**: A chart shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [25][26][27] 2.6 Downstream - Power and Energy Storage Battery Production - A chart presents the monthly production of Chinese power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and total power and energy storage batteries, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [28][29] 2.7 Downstream - New Energy Vehicle Production - A chart shows the monthly production of Chinese new energy vehicles [30][31] 3. Market Outlook - The U.S. Fed's interest - rate decision and China's manufacturing PMI data are analyzed. The Shanghai nickel market is expected to have the main contract operate in the range of 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract in the range of 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton [35]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific trading suggestions for different sectors and varieties: - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: Try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread for follow - up upside potential [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Go long on pullbacks for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the cash - futures strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, there is pressure for a further decline; for silver, it is in a volatile consolidation. Trading suggestions are based on price trends [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: Reduce long positions appropriately and hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Close long positions and observe, and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Go long on pullbacks and hold the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Pay attention to the support around 87,000 [3]. - **Tin**: Adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Adopt different strategies such as reducing long positions, short - selling on rallies, and spread trading according to different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support at 8,800 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state around 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound and upward - trending state, paying attention to the pressure around 13,800 [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Look for short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a relatively strong state, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 87,000 [3]. 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: Key factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, and the clarification of bond - fund redemption fees have an impact on the market. Risk - preference - enhancing factors are gradually materializing, and uncertainties in the market are decreasing [3]. - **Sector - specific Views** - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations; treasury bond futures are on an upward trend as negative factors are gradually digested; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and trade factors [3]. - **Black Metals Sector**: Supply and demand factors such as production, transportation, and inventory levels affect the price trends of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector**: Prices are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and technical levels [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Supply - demand expectations, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Factors such as procurement, supply pressure, and seasonal characteristics affect the price trends of various agricultural products [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors**: Macro - events and fundamental factors affect the price trends of glass, rubber, and new - energy products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, the market has a short - term pullback after reaching a high. It is recommended to try light - selling put options or constructing a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: As negative factors such as bond - fund redemption fees and central - bank bond - buying uncertainties are gradually digested, the bond market sentiment is improving. It is recommended to go long on pullbacks and consider the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under pressure to decline due to factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and geopolitical concerns; silver is in a volatile consolidation [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: The increase in apparent demand and the alleviation of inventory pressure lead to suggestions of reducing long positions and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in shipping and arrivals, the increase in port inventory, and the sharp drop in molten - iron production lead to suggestions of closing long positions and considering arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The strength of coking - coal prices and the cost support provided by coking coal lead to suggestions of going long on pullbacks and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: After the realization of positive expectations, the price is in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the support level [3]. - **Tin**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate outlook, it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Although the macro - sentiment has eased and inventory has decreased, the increase in OPEC production limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support, different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Supported by China's increased confidence in purchasing US soybeans, hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support level [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state due to abundant overseas supply [3]. - **Cotton**: With the solidification of new - cotton costs, it is in a range - bound and upward - trending state [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Affected by macro - events, pay attention to short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the upward shift of the price center and the realization of demand benefits, it is in a relatively strong state [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is facing a situation of high inventory and oversupply, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market is also under the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand, and its price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,770 yuan/ton and closed at 120,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 99,113 (- 10,149) lots, and the open interest was 107,897 (- 1,789) lots. The main contract showed a volatile downward trend. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut and Powell's cautious statement on the December rate cut led to a short - term rebound of the US dollar, pressuring commodities, and Shanghai nickel closed slightly lower in the late session [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The mine side still has a strong attitude of holding prices, and the overall nickel ore price remains firm. The CIF tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from Indonesia's purchases in the Philippines was 49.5 - 50.5, down 1 dollar month - on - month. The FOB tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from the northern Philippine mine LNL was 43.5, unchanged month - on - month. The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is about to enter the rainy season, and the shipping is coming to an end; the northern mines are in the tender and shipping stage. The price of downstream nickel iron is under pressure, and iron plants are not willing to accept the high price of raw material nickel ore. The domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia in November (phase one) is expected to fall by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,700 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was dull, and the spot premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,532 (99) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,640 (- 66) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The nickel market has high inventory and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,805 yuan/ton and closed at 12,725 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 105,051 (+ 11,210) lots, and the open interest was 89,093 (- 4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, the main contract showed a volatile weakening trend. Overseas, the rebound of the US dollar pressured commodities; domestically, although the adjustment of real - estate policies released certain positive signals, the demand transmission of stainless steel in the real - estate field was lagging, and it was difficult to boost market confidence in the short term [3]. - **Spot**: The price was basically stable, and trading was still difficult. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 100) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,000 (+ 50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 250 to 550 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 924.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, stainless steel will still face the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Core Viewpoint - Linyi aims to transform into an international city by enhancing its trade and logistics capabilities, drawing comparisons to Yiwu, which has successfully established itself as a global small commodity hub [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Goals and Development Plans - By 2030, Linyi's market transaction volume is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, logistics volume to surpass 1.5 trillion yuan, and foreign trade import and export volume to reach 200 billion yuan [5][6]. - The Shandong provincial government emphasizes the need for Linyi to develop a robust commercial logistics system with strong radiation capabilities, aiming to establish it as an international commodity distribution center and logistics hub by 2035 [6][7]. Group 2: Current Market Position and Challenges - Linyi has the largest market cluster in the country, with 136 specialized wholesale markets covering over 600 million types of goods, achieving a market transaction volume of 660.48 billion yuan and a logistics volume of 1 trillion yuan last year [4][8]. - Despite progress, Linyi's foreign trade volume remains significantly lower than Yiwu, with Linyi's import and export total at 114.8 billion yuan, only one-fifth of Yiwu's [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Innovations - Linyi is focusing on integrating internationalization and digitalization to enhance its market presence, with plans to develop overseas markets and logistics channels [11][12]. - The local government is prioritizing key industries and aims to strengthen its supply chain support, particularly in high-end stainless steel and advanced commercial vehicles [10][15]. Group 4: Regional Economic Significance - As a key player in Shandong's economy, Linyi is expected to contribute significantly to the province's GDP, which is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan, making Shandong the third province in China to achieve this milestone [12][13]. - Linyi's development is crucial for the integration of the Lunan economic circle, with plans to elevate its economic capabilities and become a vibrant growth engine for the province [12][13].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily analysis of the non - ferrous metals market on October 30, 2025, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1]. - It includes market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 87,960 yuan/ton, down 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased positions by 2,982 lots to 620,000 lots. LME closed at $11,090/ton, up 0.55%. Shanghai copper spot was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton [1]. Alumina - The alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2,816 yuan/ton. The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was 2,840 yuan, up 5 yuan [8]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China were 21,190 yuan (up 30), 21,070 yuan (flat), and 21,050 yuan (up 10) respectively [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,750 yuan/ton. The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in various regions remained flat [24]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.13% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 4,449 lots to 214,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was 22,300 - 22,425 yuan/ton [31]. Lead - The Shanghai lead 2512 contract fell 0.06% to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index decreased positions by 2,688 lots to 119,800 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead was flat at 17,200 yuan/ton [37]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 40 to 120,980 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,185 lots. The premium of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed to varying degrees [42]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 50 to 12,725 yuan/ton, and the index decreased positions by 8,627 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled was 12,550 - 12,850 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled was 12,450 - 12,500 yuan/ton [50]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,600 yuan/ton, down 2,650 yuan/ton or 0.93%, and the position decreased by 2,185 lots to 72,249 lots. The average spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai was 284,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [55]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon decreased. The spot prices of different grades in various regions remained stable [89]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon increased. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related downstream product prices had minor changes [90]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract increased by 980 to 83,400 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 36,888 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [76]. Group 3: Important Information Macro - level - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and ended quantitative tightening, but Powell's hawkish remarks on December's interest - rate cut prospects reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut from 95% to 65% [2]. - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus, with the US canceling a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspending a 24% reciprocal tariff for another year [16][24][56]. Industry - level - Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter [2]. - Some zinc mines in Southwest, North, and Central China have production adjustments such as maintenance and resumption of production [32]. - A large alumina enterprise in North China has two roasting furnaces under maintenance due to heavy pollution weather [9]. - Some electrolytic aluminum plants overseas and in China have production cuts [17]. - Some stainless steel mills plan to cut production to relieve the supply - demand contradiction in the fourth quarter [51]. - Indonesia closed 1,000 illegal mining sites [57]. - The production of some polysilicon plants in Southwest China will be reduced in November [69]. - China will suspend the implementation of lithium - battery and its material export control measures for one year [78]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Copper - Macroscopically, the dollar strengthened due to Powell's hawkish remarks, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting was slightly disappointing. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The consumption is weak, and the spot has turned to a discount [3][4]. Alumina - The supply and demand of alumina are still significantly in surplus. The market expects production cuts in the future, which drives the price to rebound slightly at a low level. However, the non - implementation of production cuts and the open import window suppress the rebound [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut has decreased, and the Sino - US economic and trade consensus eases the risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the domestic consumption has resilience [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's hawkish remarks increase uncertainty, but the Sino - US trade negotiation is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the supply of the regenerative aluminum alloy industry is shrinking, and the demand is resilient, supporting the price [26]. Zinc - Domestically, the winter storage of smelters has increased, the processing fees have decreased, and some smelters may cut production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken. Overseas, the inventory is relatively low, and the LME zinc price is strong. The domestic export window is open [33]. Lead - Some lead - storage enterprises' orders have improved, but they have reduced production due to high lead prices. The supply side may increase production as the price of lead scrap has not risen significantly. The lead price may decline [39]. Nickel - The Fed's interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks have an impact. The LME nickel inventory is slowly increasing, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is supported by cost, and it will fluctuate widely [45]. Stainless Steel - The terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and it is the end of the peak season. The supply side has production cuts, the cost support is not strong, and the price has encountered resistance [51]. Tin - The Sino - US leaders' meeting result is slightly disappointing. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the production of smelters in September decreased. The demand is slowly recovering, and the downstream procurement is cautious [57]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up rate of silicon plants in Northwest China is at a high level, and those in Southwest China will stop production at the end of the month. The demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy is stable, and the production of polysilicon will be reduced in November. There may be inventory reduction [62]. Polysilicon - The production in Southwest China will be reduced in November. The demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. The market will be in a tight - balance state in November. The old warehouse receipts' negative impact on the market is weakening [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production has decreased, and the inventory is being reduced. The fundamentals are healthy, attracting bullish funds. The price is expected to continue rising [78]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend continues. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, but be cautious of short - term pullbacks when chasing high [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive arbitrage and arrange cross - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline [6]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November. The price will bottom out in the short term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate upward after the market sentiment stabilizes [19]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will follow the aluminum price to adjust due to macro - sentiment and then maintain a strong trend after stabilizing [27]. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - AD short - AL arbitrage [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Zinc - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the export volume and the commissioning of new smelters in the North [34]. - Arbitrage: Advance the operation of buying SHFE and selling LME according to the export situation [34]. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Lead - Unilateral: Partially close profitable short positions. If the resumption and increase of production of regenerative lead smelters accelerate, the lead price may fall further [40]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [40]. - Options: Exit the position by taking profit on selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely [46]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Recommend short - selling on rebounds [52]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. Tin - Unilateral: Fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade relationship [58]. - Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Hold short - term long positions and exit near the previous high [63]. - Arbitrage: None [63]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [63]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Partially reduce long positions to take profit and buy on dips later [72]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [73]. - Options: Hold long call options [74]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Buy on dips [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - policy is favorable for the metal sector, leading to a slight rebound in nickel and stainless steel. The supply of nickel is in an oversupply pattern with high inventory, so the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The demand for stainless steel grows weakly and the cost support weakens, and its price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation trend [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,760 yuan/ton and closed at 121,540 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,262 (-47,034) lots, and the open interest was 109,686 (-5,360) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to the positive macro - policy expectations [2]. - In the nickel ore market, recent transactions have occurred. Indonesia's CIF tender for 1.4% nickel ore from the Philippines was settled at 49.5 - 50.5, down 1 dollar month - on - month. The FOB tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from domestic northern mines is expected to be around 43. The shipping season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines is coming to an end, and northern mines are in the tender and shipping stage. The price of downstream nickel - iron is under pressure, and iron plants are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in November (Phase I) is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [2]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,100 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot transactions were mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot premiums of various brands increased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 31,433 (48) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,706 (270) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory remains high. It is expected that the nickel price will remain in low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,750 yuan/ton and closed at 12,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 93,841 (-3,249) lots, and the open interest was 98,223 (-4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, due to the signs of easing Sino - US friction and the upcoming release of the 14th Five - Year Plan, the main contract of stainless steel also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4]. - The spot price of stainless steel remained stable, but the transactions were still sluggish, and the actual transactions were mainly low - priced goods. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was from 215 to 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by -2.00 yuan/nickel point to 924.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Due to weak demand growth and weakening cost support, it is expected that the stainless steel price will remain in an interval oscillation trend. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The mid - term upward trend of copper continues, but there is a risk of short - term retracement; alumina prices may rebound slightly but are suppressed by over - supply and imports; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish; ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices will remain strong and volatile; zinc prices may be long on dips; lead prices may decline; nickel prices are weak and volatile; stainless steel prices are recommended to be short on rebounds; tin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; industrial silicon prices can be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy; polysilicon prices suggest reducing short - term long positions and buying on dips; lithium carbonate prices can be bought on pullbacks [1][9][17][22][27][34][38][43][51][56][64][69] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 88,710 yuan/ton, up 1.16%, with an increase of 22,023 lots in the Shanghai copper index. Shanghai spot copper was at a discount of 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Important Information**: The "small non - farm" ADP released weekly employment data; Trump may influence the Fed; CMOC will invest 1.08 billion US dollars to expand its KFM copper mine; Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased; First Quantum's Q3 copper production and guidance production changed [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US relations have eased, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The supply of copper mines is more disrupted, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The supply is relatively tight, and consumption is weak [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for the mid - term; hold inter - market positive spreads; wait and see for options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 40 yuan to 2,879 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 11,116 lots in positions. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with some declines in Guangxi and Guizhou [7] - **Related Information**: Tangshan launched a heavy - pollution emergency response; a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprise purchased alumina; Australian alumina prices changed; domestic alumina production capacity increased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply and demand are still in significant surplus, but there are expectations of production cuts, which drive prices to rebound slightly, but are restricted by production cuts not being implemented and imports [9][11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November, with short - term narrow - range fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage and options [12][13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose 75 yuan to 21,295 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,871 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15] - **Related Information**: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; aluminum inventories decreased; Century Aluminum's Icelandic smelter had a production reduction [15][16] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation has eased, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts. Overseas production cuts intensify supply - demand concerns, and domestic consumption has resilience, so aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are volatile and bullish [18] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 65 yuan to 20,690 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,342 lots in positions. Spot prices in different regions were stable [20] - **Related Information**: Sino - US leaders will meet; the "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts and social inventories changed [20][21] - **Trading Logic**: The macro - expectation is improving. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the industry supply is shrinking. Demand is resilient, so prices will remain strong and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.27% to 22,430 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,255 lots in positions. The spot market was cautious in purchasing [25] - **Related Information**: An Inner Mongolia lead - zinc mine resumed production and may stop production in winter; domestic zinc ingot inventories changed [26] - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic smelters' winter storage has expanded, and processing fees have decreased, squeezing smelter profits. Consumption may weaken. Overseas inventories are low, and LME zinc prices are strong [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips; consider advance layout for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [28] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.4% to 17,355 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 566 lots in positions. Spot prices decreased, and downstream procurement willingness declined [31] - **Related Information**: Some lead - battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production; a lead smelter in North China stopped for maintenance; a lead - zinc mine in Inner Mongolia resumed production; lead inventories decreased [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: Some lead - battery enterprises reduce production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead may increase, so lead prices may decline [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions; wait and see for arbitrage; continue to hold sold out - of - the - money call options [35][36] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2512 rose 410 to 121,540 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2,144 lots in the index positions. Spot premiums changed [37] - **Important Information**: Indonesia and Brazil strengthened cooperation; a nickel company's performance and production quota plans; Indonesia promoted the downstream development of nickel resources; the Indonesian nickel price index was stable [38] - **Logic Analysis**: Precious metals' correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. LME nickel inventories are increasing, and the upside of nickel prices is limited, showing a weak and volatile trend [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Nickel prices are weak and volatile; wait and see for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [38][39] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 rose 40 to 12,805 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2,342 lots in positions. Spot prices were in a certain range [42] - **Important Information**: Some steel mills plan to reduce production; Taiwan's stainless steel industry is under cost pressure [43] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and the supply of 200 - series stainless steel is reduced. The cost support is not strong, and prices face resistance [43] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage [44][45] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan/ton or 0.65%. Spot prices rose, but the market acceptance was low [47] - **Related Information**: The "14th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released; the APEC meeting will be held; the US plans to cooperate with South Korea; ADP released US employment data [50] - **Logic Analysis**: The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply of tin mines is tight, and production in September decreased. Demand is slowly recovering [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by macro - sentiment and demand expectations; wait and see for options [52][53] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [55] - **Logic Analysis**: The operating rate of northwest silicon plants is high, and southwest plants will stop furnaces. Demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloys is stable, and polysilicon production is expected to decrease. There may be inventory reduction, and prices are recommended to be traded with a high - throw and low - suck strategy [56][58] - **Strategy Suggestion**: High - throw and low - suck, buy on dips; no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money put options [59][60][61] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Five departments issued a plan to regulate the market order [63] - **Logic Analysis**: Southwest polysilicon production capacity reduces the operating load, and production in November is expected to decrease. Demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. There will be inventory accumulation, but at a reduced rate. The price is under short - term pressure [64] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce short - term long positions and buy on dips; conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts; hold bought call options [65][66][67] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 660 to 82,900 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13,378 lots in positions and an increase of 190 in Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts. Spot prices increased [69] - **Important Information**: Some companies obtained lithium - related mining rights or signed cooperation agreements [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is driven by power and energy storage, and supply is tight. Inventory and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The market is bullish, and prices are rising [69][70] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [71][72][73]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply; the growth of Indonesian ferronickel production has slowed down, and domestic production has gradually declined. Recently, the ferronickel price has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs [2]. - On the supply side, steel mills' production profits have shrunk, but with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season and the gradual increase in infrastructure and real - estate demand, stainless - steel mills' production schedules have still increased [2]. - On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up, combined with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies. Anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. Market procurement demand has resilience, and domestic inventories continue to decline [2]. - Technically, with the reduction of positions and price adjustments, both long and short sides are trading cautiously. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 12,900. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,805 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts is - 5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,437 lots, an increase of 1,329 lots; the position of the main contract is 98,223 lots, a decrease of 2,030 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 73,777 tons, a decrease of 119 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the market price of scrap 304 stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,150 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 320 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 121,900 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 576,700 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal is released, clarifying the main goals of economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, steadily increasing total factor productivity, significantly increasing the household consumption rate, greatly improving the level of scientific and technological self - reliance, making new breakthroughs in comprehensive deep - seated reforms, and synchronizing household income growth with economic growth and labor compensation growth with labor productivity growth. It also proposes to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy, promote new economic growth points in quantum technology, biological manufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain - computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G, and take extraordinary measures to achieve decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies in key areas such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high - end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biological manufacturing [2].