投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250709 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：铜、药、半导体关税将至，A 股反弹接近前高 海外方面，美国"软数据"继续修复，6 月纽约联储一年期通胀预期降至五个月低点 3%， 居民裁员担忧减轻。关税加征与谈判节奏趋稳，市场避险情绪缓解，美国财长与日本首席谈 判代表通话，或于下周访日。特朗普宣布拟加征铜关税 50%，药品关税最高达 200%，制药 业获 18 个月调整缓冲期，半导体关税即将公布，对欧盟关税信函或将两日内发出。商务部 长卢特尼克称，将在未来两天发出 15–20 封关税信函，铜关税最快 7 月下旬生效。美元指 数回升至 97.7，10Y 美债利率站上 4.4%，美股震荡走平，金价回吐涨幅下破 3300 点位，铜 价受关税消息影响，美铜一度飙升 16%，伦铜则跌超 2%。 国内：A 股放量上涨，上证指数逼近 3500 关口，两市成交额回升至 1.47 万亿，风格上 创业板、科创 50 表现占优，行业上光伏、电池、多元金融板块领涨， ...

宏观 宏观：国内政策端聚焦中游制造和反内卷措施，工信部座谈会强调光伏行业治理，推动产业 升级，短期对新能源成长板块形成情绪提振。7 月政治局会议临近，市场预期将出台稳增长 政策。特朗普宣布关税延至 8 月 1 日生效，缓解短期压力，但远期不确定性可能继续压制外 贸依赖型板块。 市场分析：四大股指期货主力合约集体收涨，其中，IM 表现最强，主力合约涨幅达 2.01%， IF 主力合约上涨 0.91%，IH 主力合约上涨 0.67#，IC 主力合约上涨 1.62%。市场整体情绪偏 暖，但成交额较昨日缩量 891 亿元，反映市场追涨意愿谨慎。短期驱动因素包括政策预期、 外部风险缓和，但中期突破 3 月高点仍需基本面实质性支撑。 参考观点：单边策略，关注中小盘指数的多头机会，但需警惕基差波动避免追高，或布局远 月合约低多机会。套利策略，远月深度贴水收敛或具备 IM/IC 反套机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：美元指数低位，托底油价，但美国非农数据压低 7 月降息可能以及 OPEC+7 月 会议有加速增产预期（有消息称沙特或将寻求增产以寻回丧失的市场份额）。因此，短期原 油价格震荡为主。 市场分析：特朗普推文称将拉低油价，鼓励 ...

| 粕类产业期现日报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 朱迪 Z0015979 2025年7月9日 | | | | 豆粕 | | | | 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | | | 现价 2800 2800 0 0.00% 江苏豆粕 | | | | 期价 M2509 2935 2937 -2 -0.07% | | | | 基差 M2509 -135 -137 2 1.46% | | | | 现货基差报价 广东现货基差 m2509-150 m2509-150 - - | | | | 盘面进口榨利 美湾船期 - - - - | | | | 33 17 ાર 94.1% 盘面进口榨利 巴西9月船期 | | | | 仓单 42250 40280 1970 4.9% | | | | 菜相 | | | | 现值 前值 涨跌 张跃幅 | | | | 现价 江苏菜粕 2480 2500 -20 -0.80% | | | | 期价 RM2509 2576 2579 -3 -0.12% | | | | RM2509 -de -79 -17 -21.52% ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-07-09 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.70 | 49.50 | 49.50 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.50 | 50.30 | 50.50 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22870.00 11599.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 202506 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/07/08 | -175.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/07 | -177.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/04 | -178.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/03 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/07/02 | -180.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是 ...

英国曼彻斯特市中心，霓虹灯下的一家美甲店，橱窗里贴着"美甲特价20镑"的招牌，吸引着络绎不绝的 顾客。玻璃门后，一名瘦小的越南女孩正低头为客人修整指甲。她叫小阮，今年只有16岁。尽管腰背挺 直，目光却始终低垂。 从踏上英国土地的那一刻起，小阮便成了人贩子口中的"债务人"。偷渡到英国的"路费"摇身一变成了数 万英镑的天价债务，而她从未见过一张欠条。所谓的工作不过是个幌子。每天，小阮在美甲店工作超过 12个小时，吃住就在后面的储物间，周围除了工具箱，就是塑料桶。小阮的护照、手机和身份证明早被 收走，与外界的联系随时都可能被彻底切断。 她被反复告诫：如果胆敢逃跑，下场就是被警方抓走、遣返回国，家人也将受牵连。终日生活在恐惧 中，小阮脚踝上仿佛被戴上了一副无形的镣铐。 受害者无法说"不" 小阮的故事是英国一家反奴役救助平台记录的真实案例，这样的故事在当今英国并非个例。警方在侦破 一起美甲奴役案中，甚至在毛绒玩具中搜出6万英镑现金。而那些被剥削的少女们却连温饱都无法保障 ——她们大多数是偷渡来到英国，被人贩子贩卖至各地的美甲店，为了"还债"被迫日复一日地劳动，却 从未真正挣到一分钱。 这不仅仅是黑工问题。根据英国201 ...

2025年7月9日 星期三 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 黑色 临汾地区部分停产煤矿陆续复产,"反内卷"下成材供应或有望收缩,关注 政策的具体文件落地,需求侧暂无明显增量,螺纹供需弱平衡。 黄金 东南亚产区天气趋于缓和,割胶工作逐步恢复,胶水系需求拖拽,与原料杯 胶价格表现分化。轮胎样本企业产能利用率下行。供需两端矛盾未有明显缓 解,天然橡胶价格仍延续承压。 特朗普延长关税暂缓期,贸易谈判显示乐观情绪,但仍存不确定性。市场对 美联储最早降息时间推至10月,关注本周美联储会议纪要。预计黄金维持高 位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏稳运行,到港量预计环减,供应中枢下移,供应压力减缓,日 均出库量维持在6.7万方左右,供需矛盾不大,关注原木期货交割对原木价格 的影响。 橡胶 生猪 当前养殖端挺价情绪较强,北方多地生猪走货顺畅,猪价短期或延续涨势, 进入7月后,南方生猪供应预计偏紧,或接棒北方引领新一轮行情上涨。 - 浙江新世纪期货有限公司 - 客服热线:400-700-2828 关注#新世纪期货#微信公众号 了解更多 油粗 美豆种植面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The corn starch industry in China is a crucial pillar of the agricultural product deep processing sector, exhibiting a mature supply-demand system with a balanced state in 2024, where production is projected to reach 37.99 million tons and apparent demand at 37.97 million tons, indicating a tight balance overall [1][13]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The corn starch industry has established a stable supply-demand structure, with production and demand closely aligned, reflecting a trend of "stable total volume and optimized structure" [1][13]. - The industry is transitioning from traditional scale expansion to high-quality development, with an increasing proportion of high-value-added products, demonstrating resilience [1][13]. - The corn starch is derived from corn kernels through various processes and is categorized into three types: regular corn starch, modified starch, and specialty corn starch, widely used in food processing, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and biodegradable materials [2][4]. Group 2: Policy Support - Recent national policies have significantly supported the corn starch industry, emphasizing green manufacturing and high-end product development, with specific encouragement for bio-based products and functional food additives [4]. - Local governments are also promoting the development of the corn starch deep processing industry, aiming for a stable planting area and a substantial industry scale by 2027 [4]. Group 3: Industry Chain - The corn starch industry in China features a complete industrial chain with a "dispersed upstream, concentrated midstream, and diversified downstream" structure [6]. - The midstream processing segment is highly concentrated, with key regions like Shandong and Hebei forming industrial clusters, while downstream applications are diversifying into traditional and emerging sectors [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The corn production in China is vital, with a total output exceeding 294.92 million tons in 2024, accounting for over 40% of the total grain production, supported by increased planting area and yield [9]. - The demand for corn starch is robust across various sectors, with the food industry being the largest consumer, followed by starch sugar, paper, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals [11]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape of the corn starch industry is characterized by a concentration of leading firms, with the top five companies holding approximately 45% market share, while smaller firms focus on niche markets [19]. - The industry is evolving towards a "technology-driven, chain collaboration, and scenario-focused" competitive model, with leading companies integrating their operations from corn to starch to bio-based materials [19]. Group 6: Future Trends - The corn starch industry is undergoing a transformation driven by technological innovation, with advancements in smart manufacturing and green production methods [21]. - Market demand is shifting towards high-end and diversified applications, particularly in biodegradable materials and health-oriented products, with significant growth expected in these areas [22][23]. - The industry is also seeing increased integration and globalization, with leading firms expanding their operations and establishing a presence in international markets [24].

Core Insights - The article highlights the booming bamboo leaf industry in Jingning, where local farmers are actively engaged in harvesting and processing bamboo leaves, leading to significant income generation for the community [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Jingning's bamboo leaves are characterized by their large leaves, strong flexibility, and unique aroma, making them highly sought after by zongzi (sticky rice dumpling) producers, particularly by companies like Wufangzhai [2]. - The bamboo leaf processing center established in June has become a crucial hub for the collection and processing of bamboo leaves, employing over twenty local workers and processing around 8,000 pounds of bamboo leaves daily [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Farmers can earn approximately 270 to 280 yuan per day by harvesting bamboo leaves, with some able to collect up to 50 pounds daily [1]. - The processing center's operations contribute to a projected annual sales revenue of around 12 million yuan from the sale of 350 to 400 tons of bamboo leaves to Wufangzhai [2]. Group 3: Future Development Plans - The local government plans to expand both wild and cultivated bamboo leaf planting areas and enhance communication with external processing enterprises to increase production and market share [2].

文字早评 2025/07/09 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 宏观消息面： 1、美财长称未来数周拟与中方会谈 推动中美贸易等议题磋商。 2、北方稀土：6 月份稀土产品出口接单有了一定的恢复 公司对未来稀土价格走势持乐观看法。 3、乘联分会：6 月全国乘用车市场零售 211 万辆 同比增长 18.6%。 4、关于硅料收储 通威股份回应：没有更确切消息。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.40%/-0.85%/-1.00%/-1.92%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.33%/-1.19%/-2.00%/-4.15%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.44%/-1.53%/-2.68%/-5.62%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.52%/-0.71%/-0.71%/-0.70%。 交易逻辑：海外方面，近期主要关注点在美国对各国征收关税带来的影响。国内方面，重点关注 7 月份 "中央政治局会议"预期。当前国债利率处于低位，股债收益比较高，淤积在金融系统的资金有望流入 高收益资产，经济也有望在众多政策的助力下企稳。建议逢低做多与经济高度相关的 IH 或者 IF 股指期 货，亦可择机做多 ...