PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stable with slight declines, with mainstream market fluctuations between 0-10 yuan/ton, and low trading activity due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm [1] - The current prices for 5-type calcium carbide PVC are reported as follows: East China at 4670-4790 yuan/ton, South China at 4760-4830 yuan/ton, Hebei at 4540-4640 yuan/ton, and Shandong at 4650-4730 yuan/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 76.11%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points week-on-week; the calcium carbide method operates at 76.97% (up 0.06 percentage points), while the ethylene method operates at 74.12% (up 2.12 percentage points) [2] - As of September 25, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises have increased by 2.91% to 5.3 days, indicating a rise in factory inventory levels amid weak market demand [2] PVC Market Outlook - As the holiday approaches, the PVC market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with supply-demand imbalances remaining challenging to resolve in Q3, leading to a general weakening of both futures and spot prices [3] - High production levels continue to create an oversupply situation, while demand has not shown significant improvement during the peak season, with a notable contraction in profile demand [3] - The upstream holding willingness is decreasing, but export activities are providing some relief from the oversupply pressure; cost support remains from rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The petrochemical and chemical industry aims for an average annual increase of over 5% in added - value from 2025 - 2026, focusing on high - end, green, and intelligent transformation. Policy support in finance, elements, etc., is provided to promote quality and quantity growth [1]. - Brent crude oil has been rising since September 2025 but is down 7.5% year - on - year, which is negative for L. In August, domestic PE production increased for two consecutive months to 2.827 million tons, up 16.4% year - on - year, negatively affecting the L - PP spread [2]. - The US manufacturing PMI in August 2025 rose to 48.7 points, rising for three consecutive months, which is positive for L in the single - side trading [4]. - In September 2025, the petrochemical industry promoted quality improvement during the "Quality Month". Enterprises strengthened full - process quality control through digital and intelligent means [4]. - The downstream demand is in the peak season with a slight increase in downstream operation rates. However, the 01 contracts of both L and PP have new production capacity release expectations. Near - term cost - side oil price increases lead to short - term price fluctuations, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - **September 30, 2025**: The L2601 contract closed at 7161 points, down 20 points or 0.28%. LLDPE prices in North China were 7100 - 7170 yuan/ton, 7160 - 7370 yuan/ton in East China, and 7230 - 7600 yuan/ton in South China. The PP2601 contract closed at 6878 points, down 25 points or 0.36%. PP prices in North China were 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton in East China, and 6700 - 6830 yuan/ton in South China [1]. - **September 29, 2025**: The L2601 contract closed at 7197 points, up 38 points or 0.53%. LLDPE prices in North China were 7120 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7180 - 7370 yuan/ton in East China, and 7230 - 7600 yuan/ton in South China. The PP2601 contract closed at 6916 points, up 23 points or 0.33%. PP prices in North China were 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton in East China, and 6700 - 6850 yuan/ton in South China [4]. - **September 19, 2025**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices in North China were 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton with some drops; in East China, they were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton with partial price changes; in South China, they were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton with a slight decline. In the PP spot market, prices in North China were 6670 - 6780 yuan/ton with a decline; in East China, they were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton with a decline; in South China, they were 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton with no change [6]. Important Information - **September 30, 2025**: Seven departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in added - value, promoting high - end, green, and intelligent transformation, and providing policy support [1]. - **September 29, 2025**: During the "Quality Month" in September 2025, the petrochemical industry promoted quality improvement. Enterprises such as CNOOC, China National Chemical Engineering, and PetroChina strengthened full - process quality control [4]. - **September 19, 2025**: On the previous day, the PE maintenance ratio was 16.9%, up 3.2 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio was 19.3%, up 1.5 percentage points [6]. Logical Analysis - Brent crude oil rising since September 2025 but being down 7.5% year - on - year is negative for L. The increase in domestic PE production in August is negative for the L - PP spread [2]. - As of the previous week, there were no new registered L and PP futures warehouse receipts. The number of L futures registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12,700 lots, and the number of PP futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 745 lots, with an inventory accumulation of 3.5% to 14,100 tons. The rise in the US manufacturing PMI in August is positive for L in single - side trading [4]. - The downstream demand is in the peak season, but the 01 contracts of L and PP have new production capacity release expectations. The near - term increase in oil prices leads to short - term price fluctuations, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended [6]. Trading Strategies - **September 30, 2025**: Due to the approaching holiday and no night trading, control the open inventory. Hold long positions in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low; wait and see for the PP main 01 contract and focus on the pressure at Monday's high. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [2]. - **September 29, 2025**: Try to go long in the L main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low; try to go long in the PP main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's low. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [5]. - **September 19, 2025**: Due to the near - term increase in oil prices, plastic and PP prices fluctuate in the short term, and a mid - term short - selling strategy is recommended. Wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefins, including polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE), are in a downward - trending phase. Their price centers are expected to decline in the later period. The reason is that they are in a capacity - release cycle, with new devices coming into operation and high existing production loads. Meanwhile, Q4 may see an increase in imports, leading to large supply pressure. Although demand has entered the peak season, it fails to meet expectations and cannot digest the high production volume. As a result, the price center of polyolefins may continue to move down [3]. - In Q3, the polyolefin market had no major contradictions, but the supply - demand pattern was under pressure. New devices were put into production, and demand in the peak season was lower than expected, causing the price center to gradually decline. In Q4, the supply pressure will increase due to expected import growth, the cost - side crude oil outlook is pessimistic, and the oversupply pattern will continue to intensify, further pressuring prices [3][4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price, Basis, and Spread Trends**: In July, after a brief rebound, polyolefin prices started to decline. In August and September, prices, especially for PP, weakened. The basis of PP was under pressure, and the 1 - 5 spread was at a low level. The basis of PE was stronger than that of PP and has been strengthening since August, but the absolute value was still low. The 1 - 5 spread of PE also weakened against the season [11][18]. - **Spread Analysis**: Before late August, the L - P spread was upward, but then turned downward as the demand for L also failed to meet expectations. The L - V01 and PP - V01 spreads fell in July and then recovered and stabilized in August. Methanol was statically weak, and MTO profits improved [33][34]. 3.2 Supply Review - **Domestic Capacity Release**: In 2025, multiple PP and PE production devices are planned to be put into production. In Q3, PP added 1.3 million tons of production capacity, and there are still 750,000 tons to be put into operation by the end of the year. PE added 900,000 tons of production capacity in Q3, and there are still 1.7 million tons to be put into operation, with slightly greater pressure than PP [39][40]. - **Production - Side Profits**: In Q3, the cost - side oil price center moved down. The profit of the oil - based production end was at the same level as the previous year. LPG supply pressure increased, and PDH profits were poor. With the arrival of the coal - using peak season, coal prices rebounded, CTO profits shrank but remained high, and inland MTO profits deteriorated [65]. - **Domestic Production and Load**: From January to August, the supply of PP and PE remained high. In Q3, PP devices operated stably with few maintenance cases, but parking increased in mid - to - late September due to weak demand. PE had more maintenance, especially in September, but the overall supply was still in surplus [72][78]. - **Imports and Exports**: From January to August, PP imports decreased by 9.76% year - on - year, exports increased by 29.01% year - on - year, and net imports decreased by 91.68% year - on - year. PE imports decreased by 0.84% year - on - year, exports decreased by 25.91% year - on - year, and net imports decreased by 2.66% year - on - year [89][90]. 3.3 Demand Review - **PP Demand**: In Q3, PP demand entered the seasonal peak season but did not meet expectations. Although industries such as agriculture, construction, packaging, and PP pipes showed some improvement in demand, the overall demand was still weaker than expected, increasing the downward pressure on PP prices [115]. - **PE Demand**: PE has a more obvious demand peak - season attribute, but similar to PP, the demand support was not strong. With the approach of the peak season for greenhouse film demand, production has recovered, but it was worse than the same period last year. The packaging film market has slightly improved, but the overall demand has not fully met expectations [133]. 3.4 Inventory Review - **PP Inventory**: Upstream production enterprises actively reduced inventory, and inventory mainly accumulated in the middle - link. Production enterprise inventory, port inventory, and trader inventory data showed the inventory transfer and accumulation situation [134][137]. - **PE Inventory**: PE inventory remained stable, and inventory accumulated in the middle - link during the off - season. With the increase in demand for greenhouse film and packaging film in August, social inventory decreased slightly [151].

Report Title - The Q4 2025 Quarterly Report on Polyolefins by Guantong Futures: New Capacity Commissioning Puts Pressure, Polyolefins to Oscillate Weakly [1] Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are gradually exiting the maintenance season, with the operating rate expected to rise in October. Import profit is average, and import volume is expected to remain low. In Q4, new PE and PP capacities of 2.7 million tons/year and 950,000 tons/year will be commissioned respectively. Multiple units are scheduled to start operation by the end of the year, having little impact on the 01 contract. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new capacities. The demand for polyolefins in Q4 will improve quarter-on-quarter but perform averagely compared to the same period in previous years. New orders are mediocre. Amid the global trade war, enterprises' early rush for exports and the pre - consumption of national subsidies may overdraw the Q4 demand. Although downstream enterprises have stocked up, they remain cautious. Crude oil prices will still face pressure in Q4, and the cost support for polyolefin prices is expected to be limited. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. Recently, polyolefin traders' inventories have decreased but are still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the polyolefin industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old - fashioned devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect subsequent market conditions and are worthy of close attention. It is expected that polyolefins will oscillate weakly in Q4 under the scenario of both supply and demand increasing [5][110]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Futures Price Trends - The report presents the daily K - lines of the plastic weighted contract and the PP weighted contract [8][10] Plastic Spot Prices - It shows the spot prices of plastics in North China and the spot price (CFR, mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene in the Far East [14][16] Plastic Basis Trends - Since 2025, the plastic basis has been continuously weakening from a historical high, reaching a low of - 136 yuan/ton in late July. Recently, with stable spot prices and continuous decline in futures prices, the plastic basis has rebounded to around 200 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level. The PP basis has declined slightly recently but remains at a neutral position [23][29] Plastic Production - In August 2025, the PE maintenance volume decreased by 9.63% month - on - month to 457,900 tons, an increase of 25.42% year - on - year. The cumulative PE maintenance volume from January to August 2025 increased by 0.86% year - on - year to 3.2809 million tons, at the highest level in the same period in history. In August 2025, the PE output increased by 2.52% month - on - month to 2.7702 million tons, an increase of 15.38% year - on - year. The cumulative PE output from January to August 2025 increased by 17.24% year - on - year to 21.6233 million tons, also at the highest level in the same period in history [34] Plastic Operating Rate - In August 2025, the PE operating rate increased by 2.37 percentage points month - on - month to 81.3%, a decrease of 1.17 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively low - neutral level among the same period in previous years. Recently, the operating rate has risen to around 85% and is currently at a neutral level. With the planned restart of some maintenance units at the end of September, the plastic operating rate is expected to rise slightly [39] Plastic Under - Maintenance Units - Besides long - term shut - down units such as those of North Huajin HDPE and Shenyang Chemical's full - density units, new units in 2025 like those of Lianyungang Petrochemical HDPE and Zhonghan Petrochemical LLDPE are still under maintenance [41] Plastic Planned Maintenance Units in Q4 - According to Longzhong Information, there are not many PE units planned for maintenance in Q4 2025, involving a total capacity of 3.18 million tons. Some units will be under maintenance for more than 30 days [44] Plastic New Capacities - In the first three quarters of 2025, multiple new capacities were commissioned, with a total of 3.43 million tons/year. In Q4 2025, the expected new capacity is 2.7 million tons. Some new capacities are expected to be commissioned in October, while others at the end of the year, having little impact on the 2025 output. There is also a possibility of delay in the commissioning of new capacities in Q4 [48] PP Production - In August 2025, the PP maintenance volume decreased by 8.76% month - on - month to 657,900 tons, an increase of 8.89% year - on - year. The cumulative PP maintenance volume from January to August 2025 increased by 5.13% year - on - year to 5.0087 million tons, at the highest level in the same period in history. In August 2025, the PP output increased by 2.32% month - on - month to 3.5045 million tons, an increase of 18.00% year - on - year. The cumulative PP output from January to August 2025 increased by 16.92% year - on - year to 26.3476 million tons, at the highest level in the same period in history [52] PP Operating Rate - In August 2025, the PP operating rate increased by 1.65 percentage points month - on - month to 78.80%, an increase of 3.55 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively low - neutral level. Recently, the operating rate has dropped to around 79% due to new maintenance units, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring has risen to around 30%. It is expected that the operating rate will recover in early October [57] PP Under - Maintenance Units - Besides long - term shut - down units such as those of Dalian Petrochemical and Wuhan Petrochemical, new units in 2025 like those of Qilu Petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical are still under maintenance [60] PP Planned Maintenance Units in Q4 - In Q4, multiple PP units are planned for maintenance, and the maintenance is expected to be concentrated from October to November [63] PP New Capacities - In the first three quarters of 2025, 4.155 million tons of new PP capacities were commissioned. In Q4 2025, the expected new capacity is 950,000 tons, with some units planned to be commissioned in December [66] Plastic Imports and Exports - In August 2025, China's PE imports were 950,200 tons, a decrease of 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month, at the lowest level in the same period in previous years. The cumulative PE imports from January to August 2025 were 8.9816 million tons, a decrease of 0.84% year - on - year. In August 2025, China's PE exports were 116,000 tons, an increase of 61.83% year - on - year and 14.12% month - on - month, at the highest level in the same period in previous years. The cumulative PE exports from January to August 2025 were 729,700 tons, an increase of 25.91% year - on - year. In August 2025, the net PE imports were 834,200 tons, a decrease of 27.36% year - on - year. The cumulative net PE imports from January to August 2025 were 8.2518 million tons, a decrease of 2.66% year - on - year. The LLDPE import profit is currently negative, and with the release of domestic capacities, the net PE imports are expected to remain low [72] PP Imports and Exports - In August 2025, China's PP imports were 247,000 tons, a decrease of 21.39% year - on - year and 12.54% month - on - month, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The cumulative PP imports from January to August 2025 were 2.1676 million tons, a decrease of 9.77% year - on - year. In August 2025, China's PP exports were 275,900 tons, an increase of 29.83% year - on - year and 4.76% month - on - month, at the highest level in the same period in previous years. The cumulative PP exports from January to August 2025 were 2.1035 million tons, an increase of 29.03% year - on - year. The PP drawstring import window is closed, and the import volume is expected to be low [78] Polyolefin Downstream - From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of plastic products was 52.1815 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, but the cumulative year - on - year growth rate decreased slightly. In August, the year - on - year growth rate was - 4.1%. The cumulative export value of plastic products from January to August 2025 was 500.396 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, with a slightly rising growth rate but still negative. In August, the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 0.8%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points month - on - month. From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the domestic total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, slower than the 3.7% from January to July. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods has been slowing down since May, indicating increasing pressure on domestic demand. As of the week of September 26, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 1.21 percentage points week - on - week to 44.13%, and the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week to 51.85%, both at relatively low levels in the same period in previous years [83][89][94] Polyolefin Inventories - After the Spring Festival in 2025, petrochemical inventories were at an average level compared to the same period in recent years. As of September 26, petrochemical inventories decreased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 585,000 tons, 105,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Recently, polyolefin traders' inventories have decreased but are still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [102] Polyolefin Profits - In September, the coal - based and oil - based PE profits decreased slightly due to a slight decline in PE prices. In September, the profits of all PP production processes declined to varying degrees. The coal - based PP production process remained profitable, while the other processes were still in the red, with the MTO process having a relatively large loss [108]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic PVC market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The export outlook is weakening, and domestic demand is flat, making it difficult to reverse the pattern of oversupply. The fundamentals are poor, and the short - term valuation has declined to a low level with limited downward space in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,600 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is 2,890 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 730 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration continues to decline, while the profit of ethylene - based production shows a slight improvement, and the current valuation is moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79%, up 2% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.3%, up 2.4% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 78.1%, up 1% month - on - month. The supply load increased last week, mainly due to the increased loads of Haohua, Jinchuan, Zhenyang, and Yinlite. It is expected to further recover next week. Although the overall maintenance volume increased in September, there were multiple new device commissionings, so the supply pressure remains high [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the final anti - dumping duty ruling in India has been announced, and China's tax rate is at a significant disadvantage compared to other countries. Once implemented, exports are expected to decline. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries decreased last week. The pipe load is 40.4%, up 1.3% month - on - month; the film load is 63.9%, down 13% month - on - month; the profile load is 38.9%, down 0.5% month - on - month. The overall downstream load is 47.8%, down 1.5% month - on - month, indicating weak overall downstream operations. The pre - sales volume of PVC last week was 759,000 tons, up 3,000 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the factory inventory was 318,000 tons, up 12,000 tons month - on - month; the social inventory was 971,000 tons, up 18,000 tons month - on - month; the overall inventory was 1.29 million tons, up 29,000 tons month - on - month; the number of warehouse receipts stabilized. Currently, it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, with upstream inventory gradually shifting to the mid - stream. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume [16][23][25]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, social inventory, factory + social inventory, warehouse receipts, Shandong's comprehensive profit of purchasing calcium carbide for chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit [30][32][39]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices have stabilized. No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Shaanxi mainstream price of medium - grade semi - coke, Shandong self - pick - up price of 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong market price of liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price [46][47][50]. 3.5 Supply Side In 2025, the PVC capacity expansion is significant, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The total planned new capacity in 2025 is 2.5 million tons/year, including multiple projects such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II). No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including historical PVC capacity trends, 2025 PVC new capacity, 2025 PVC production raw material consumption, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC operating rates, overall PVC operating rate, and weekly PVC output [56][58][60]. 3.6 Demand Side The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have declined. No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including downstream PVC operating rates (including profiles, films, and pipes), PVC export volume, PVC exports to India, PVC pre - sales volume, China's housing completion area rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate, PVC industry chain, and PVC mind map [71][73][75][80][83][85][87][90][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - L, PP neutral; L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; no cross - variety strategy [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Demand follow - up for both PE and PP is weak, suppressing their upward space. PE supply is increasing while demand improvement is limited, and inventory reduction is slow. PP demand is slowly recovering, and it is restricted by supply and has limited profit space [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton (-10), PP main contract at 6893 yuan/ton (-5). LL North China spot was 7140 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China spot 7140 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6750 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was -29 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China basis -19 yuan/ton (+10), PP East China basis -143 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 81.8% (+1.5%), PP operating rate 75.5% (+0.6%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was -1.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), PP oil - based production profit -631.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), PDH - made PP production profit -264.0 yuan/ton (-39.2) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was -56.7 yuan/ton (-1.9), PP import profit -532.6 yuan/ton (-1.9), PP export profit 15.3 US dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 32.9% (+6.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 52.4% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 43.9% (+0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 61.4% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is increasing as many restarted devices and few new planned maintenance. Demand has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking, but follow - up is insufficient. Cost support from oil prices is weak, and the market is in a volatile trend [2] - **PP**: Supply may increase as the restart of devices is expected to exceed maintenance. Demand is slowly recovering, but support is limited. Cost is affected by weak oil prices and strong propane, and profit restricts the downward space [3] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: L, PP neutral [4] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4] - **Cross - variety**: None [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: The trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, the valuation, inventory, and driving forces are not favorable, so bottom - fishing still needs to wait, considering import variables such as India's purchase from Iran and unplanned maintenance [2] - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous period, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6] - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price difference is neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production start - up is stable. The production scheduling of drawing is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of middle and upstream are continuously accumulating. During summer, Northwest devices have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high - production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the realization of new production capacity and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have slightly decreased. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [7] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From September 19 to 25, 2025, the动力煤期货 price remained at 801, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2260 to 2252, and other prices had minor changes [2] - **Profit and Basis**: Import profit was generally stable, and the main contract basis and MTO profit on the disk remained unchanged during this period [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From September 19 to 25, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable, some domestic polyethylene prices had minor fluctuations, and the main contract futures price increased by 27 [6] - **Inventory and Profit**: The two - oil inventory remained at 63, and the import profit was around - 200 with no further increase [6] Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From September 19 to 25, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6580 to 6450, and other prices had corresponding changes. The main contract futures price increased by 21 [7] - **Inventory and Profit**: The two - oil inventory remained at 63, the export profit was relatively stable, and the PDH profit was around - 400 [7] PVC - **Price Data**: From September 19 to 25, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda prices remained stable, and the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price increased from 4830 to 4800 [7] - **Profit and Inventory**: The PVC comprehensive profit was - 100, and the inventory contradiction was accumulating slowly [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The current PVC market has a weak fundamental situation. With the release of new production capacity and high industry operating rates, supply pressure continues to increase. Given the downturn in the real estate industry and the slowdown in exports, demand is unlikely to exceed expectations. Although there may be a seasonal maintenance peak in October leading to a temporary tightening of supply, if demand does not improve simultaneously, the inventory reduction speed will remain slow. It is expected that the 2601 contract will fluctuate weakly in the future [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Supply Pressure - The PVC market has entered the traditional peak season, but factors such as weak demand and increased supply have put continuous pressure on futures prices, resulting in a "peak season without prosperity" situation. The trading logic in the PVC futures market has returned to fundamentals. Although short - term supply has decreased slightly, downstream demand remains weak, and the overall fundamentals are weak [2] - In 2025, new PVC production capacity has been continuously put into operation, increasing supply pressure. New devices of Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua Development have been put into operation in recent months, bringing significant supply increments. Although some devices of Henan Yuhang and Heilongjiang Haohua were shut down for maintenance in September, and some devices of Shaanxi Beiyuan, Gansu Jinchuan, and Xinjiang Zhongtai Shengxiong continued to be under maintenance, the industry operating rate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month and remain at a relatively high level in recent years. This means that short - term supply reduction is completely offset by long - term supply increment, and market supply pressure has increased [2] Cost Support - The production cost of calcium carbide - based PVC in China is mainly affected by calcium carbide prices. Recently, the domestic calcium carbide market has recovered, and prices have risen slightly, providing phased support for PVC costs. As of the week of September 19, due to the increase in the purchase price of raw material calcium carbide, the weekly average production cost of national calcium carbide - based PVC enterprises was 5132 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.41%. Meanwhile, affected by the increase in ethylene prices, the production cost of ethylene - based PVC in China has also slightly increased. As of the week of September 19, the weekly average production cost of national ethylene - based PVC enterprises was 5617 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.018%. Although the increase in calcium carbide and ethylene prices has provided some support for PVC futures prices, it is difficult to drive prices to rise significantly [2] Supply and Inventory - Supply surplus has led to continuous accumulation of social inventory. As of the week of September 19, the domestic PVC industry inventory was 1.3005 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.11%, with 12 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation; the PVC social inventory was 953,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 11.76% [3] Demand Pressure - In terms of domestic demand, the real estate industry, as the largest end - consumption area of PVC, has been in a continuous downturn, seriously dragging down the demand recovery progress. From January to August 2025, the year - on - year decline of domestic housing construction area, new construction area, and completion area was in double - digits. In September, although the operating rate of PVC downstream enterprises has increased, the overall order situation is still average, and end - users mainly purchase at low prices, resulting in a dull market trading atmosphere [3] - In terms of export demand, affected by India's anti - dumping tax, some enterprises have "rushed to export", overdrafting part of the demand. In September, the export pace has significantly slowed down, and the order increment is limited. Although domestic enterprises are actively exploring emerging markets such as Africa and Southeast Asia, it is difficult to form a stable demand increment in the short term due to multiple factors. Overall, the supporting effect of exports on PVC prices has weakened [3] Market Outlook - Currently, the PVC market fundamentals are weak. With new production capacity coming on stream and high industry operating rates, supply pressure keeps rising. Given the real - estate slump and slower exports, demand won't likely outperform. Despite a possible seasonal maintenance peak in October that may tighten supply temporarily, if demand doesn't improve in tandem, inventory drawdown will remain slow. The 2601 contract is expected to trade in a weak, sideways pattern [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week, and the production schedule is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4888 - 4950. [10] - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. [15] - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. [14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. [14][15] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the number of expected maintenance next week is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in the production schedule. [7] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 39.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 39.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.52 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 76.92%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 72.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.39 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain sluggish. [7] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 30.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2339.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The production schedule may be under pressure. [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 24, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 129 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 241,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. The ethylene factory inventory was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. The social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.15 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96%. It is bearish. [9] 3.2.6 Market - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. It is neutral. [12] 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position decreased. It is bearish. [12] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of calcium carbide method weakened, and the cost of ethylene method strengthened, with the overall cost weakening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the production schedule is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [10]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Wang Jing (F0235424/Z0000771), Su Miaoda (F03104403/Z0018167) [1] Market Summary Futures Market Performance - As of September 23 closing, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Beans No. 2, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, soybean oil, and caustic soda dropped over 3%; palm oil, polysilicon, and soda ash fell over 2.5%. Shanghai gold and silver rose over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.25%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.26%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) dropped 0.78%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.16%. 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.05%, 5-year (TF) fell 0.13%, 10-year (T) fell 0.21%, and 30-year (TL) fell 0.67% [6] Capital Flow - As of 15:15 on September 23, in terms of capital inflow to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 5.797 billion, Shanghai Gold 2512 had 3.357 billion, and CSI 300 2512 had 3.343 billion. In terms of outflow, Rapeseed Oil 2601 had an outflow of 789 million, Soybean Oil 2601 had 489 million, and Palm Oil 2601 had 429 million [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, oscillating weakly. Supply of copper ore and refined copper is tight. As of September 19, China's spot TC was -40.64 dollars/dry ton, RC was -4.05 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. Many smelters had maintenance in September, with small and medium - sized ones under profit pressure. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% MoM decrease but a 15.59% YoY increase. Affected by policies, scrap copper supply will decline significantly in September, and electrolytic copper output is expected to drop sharply. In August, imported copper quantity decreased to 307,200 tons, a MoM decrease of 27,300 tons. Demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, reducing SHFE inventory. Fundamentals are tight, demand is resilient, but overseas macro factors still impact Shanghai copper, leading to narrow price fluctuations [10] Crude Oil - The peak travel season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows a significant unexpected draw in US crude oil inventories, but a larger - than - expected build in refined oil inventories, increasing overall oil product inventories and reducing US refinery operating rates by 1.6 percentage points. Starting from October 2025, OPEC+ will adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, increasing pressure in Q4. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arabian Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by 1 dollar/barrel. With geopolitical risks not escalating further, the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase, it is recommended to short on rallies [11][12] Asphalt - Last week, asphalt operating rate dropped 0.5 percentage points to 34.4%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In September, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.686 million tons, a MoM increase of 273,000 tons (11.3%) and a YoY increase of 683,000 tons (34.1%). Downstream operating rates rose, but road asphalt operating rate is still at the lowest level in recent years due to funds and weather. National shipments increased 31.10% MoM to 313,600 tons, at a neutral level. Refinery inventory decreased but is still at a low level in recent years. With new production and weather and fund constraints, supply surplus is intensifying, and with the recent decline in crude oil futures prices, asphalt cost support is weakening, and its futures price is expected to decline [13] PP - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. On September 23, new maintenance devices increased, and PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 80%, at a neutral - low level. The proportion of standard - grade拉丝 production remained around 24.5%. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. With the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, increased US distillate inventories, and expected increased Iraqi crude oil exports, crude oil prices fell. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have increased recently. Although downstream is entering the peak season, current peak - season demand is lower than expected, and there is no large - scale centralized procurement. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] Plastic - On September 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained around 85%, at a neutral level. PE downstream operating rate rose 0.75 percentage points to 42.92%. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, with increasing orders and raw material inventories but at a slower pace. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. With the Fed's rate cut and expected increased Iraqi crude oil exports, crude oil prices declined. New capacity has been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has decreased. Although the agricultural film peak season is coming, the peak - season effect is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [16] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. PVC operating rate decreased 2.98 percentage points to 76.96%, at a neutral - high level in recent years. In the peak season, PVC downstream operating rate continued to increase, exceeding last year's level but still low compared to other years. India postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. Chinese PVC exports are expected to weaken in Q4, but export orders have increased recently. Social inventory continued to rise and is still high. The real estate market is still in adjustment. New capacity has been put into operation. With cost support strengthening and pre - holiday downstream stocking, but new production resuming and a low basis, PVC is expected to face downward pressure [18] Urea - Urea opened low and moved high, closing flat. The spot market remains weak, with limited improvement in sales after price cuts. Urea daily output has returned to over 190,000 tons. Before the holidays, downstream buyers stock up at low prices, and industrial demand is mainly for rigid needs. The compound fertilizer factory operating rate increased but at a slower pace, with high finished - product inventory. Urea factory inventory is increasing and is much higher than in previous years. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and it is necessary to monitor the progress and intensity of pre - holiday stocking [19][20]