Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend. With the continuous addition of margin trading funds and the stabilization of Q3 earnings, the medium - term bullish view on stock index direction remains unchanged. In operation, previous medium - term long positions should be held, short - term long positions should set a stop - profit; for options, call options should be held, and short - term stop - profit should be set [16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - Last week, the broader market rose strongly with heavy volume, breaking through 4,100 points. All four major indices rose, with small and medium - cap indices rising significantly. In terms of style indices, growth and cyclical style indices rose significantly by over 5%, while stable and financial style indices rose less than 1% [7][9][22] - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover in December, with production and new orders rising by 1.7% and 1.6% respectively [9][41] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously since reaching its peak in May 2023, dropping to 5.89% as of November 2025 [9][52] - Policies include the Politburo's determination to stabilize the real estate market and boost the capital market; the State Council's release of the new Nine - Point Plan to strengthen investor returns; the central bank's creation of two new monetary policy tools; and the implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to A - shares annually [9] - In 2025, A - share earnings showed signs of stabilization in Q1, declined in Q2, and continued to stabilize and recover in Q3. The earnings of the four major indices recovered again in Q3 2025 [9][78][82] - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is at a high level since 2010, while the ChiNext's valuation is relatively low [11][95][97] Strategy Views and Outlook - The broader market is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend. Pay attention to the implementation of policy dividends and the policy expectations of the 14th Five - Year Plan. The medium - term bullish view on stock index direction remains unchanged. In operation, hold previous medium - term long positions, set stop - profits for short - term long positions; hold call options and set short - term stop - profits [16] 2. Index and Industry Trends Review - Last week, the broader market rose strongly with heavy volume, breaking through 4,100 points. All four major indices rose, with small and medium - cap indices rising significantly. In terms of style indices, growth and cyclical style indices rose significantly by over 5%, while stable and financial style indices rose less than 1%. Most Shenwan industries rose, with sectors such as comprehensive, military, media, non - ferrous metals, and computer leading the gains. Only the banking sector fell [22][25] 3. Main Contracts and Basis Trends - Among the four major indices, IC and IM rose strongly. In terms of basis, the quarterly main contract basis of IM is at a relatively high level [30] - In terms of arbitrage of main contracts, IC/IF and IC/IH oscillated upward, IH/IF oscillated, IM/IF and IM/IH oscillated upward, and IM/IC continued to decline [35] 4. Policy and Economy Economic Data - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover in December, with production and new orders rising by 1.7% and 1.6% respectively [41] - Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle. PPI bottomed out in June 2023, weakened after two months of recovery, and has since shown fluctuations in its decline rate. In November 2025, industrial enterprise revenues continued to fall to 1.6%, and inventories continued to rise to 4.6%, indicating passive inventory replenishment due to falling demand [44] - In November 2025, China's social financing scale was 248.85 billion yuan, an increase of 15.28 billion yuan year - on - year. New RMB loans were 40.53 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7 billion yuan [47] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously since reaching its peak in May 2023, dropping to 5.89% as of November 2025 [52] Policies - New Nine - Point Plan: Improve listing standards, tighten delisting indicators, and strengthen investor returns [56] - Implementation Plan for Promoting the Entry of Medium - and Long - Term Funds into the Market: Increase the actual investment ratio of medium - and long - term funds in A - shares, extend the assessment cycle, and form a joint force for policy implementation [59] - The Politburo aims to stabilize the real estate market and boost the capital market, including measures such as increasing the entry of medium - and long - term funds, promoting mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, and adjusting housing purchase restrictions [60] - The central bank creates new monetary policy tools, including a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, and a stock repurchase and increase re - loan [63] - The government implements large - scale debt reduction measures, which will directly increase 1 trillion yuan of local debt reduction funds and significantly reduce local hidden debt pressure from 2024 to 2028 [64] - Promote the high - quality development of the capital market by building first - class investment banks and institutions, implementing differentiated supervision for different types of securities companies [65] - The 14th Five - Year Plan: It is a crucial period for achieving multiple strategic goals. It focuses on developing new - quality productivity, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and expanding domestic demand [68] - The US mid - term elections: The fiscal policy during the mid - term elections is expected to be supportive [71] 5. Revenues and Net Profits of Each Index - The stabilization of listed companies' earnings is an important factor affecting the medium - and long - term market trend. A - share earnings showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, declined in Q2, and continued to stabilize and recover in Q3. The earnings of the four major indices recovered again in Q3 2025 [78][82] 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 17.1354, with an upper - bound value of 15.68, at the 92.93rd percentile since 2010, indicating a high valuation. However, as earnings rise, the valuation will decrease. The ChiNext's valuation is relatively low [11][95][97] 7. Fed Interest Rate - Not provided in the report 8. Capital Flows - Margin trading: In 2024, the net inflow was 274.8 billion yuan; in 2025, it was 670 billion yuan; as of January 8, 2026, the net inflow was 79 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 64.6 billion yuan in the first five trading days [12][102] - As of January 9, 2026, the ETF funds had a small net outflow of 1.2 billion yuan [12][114] - The scale of private securities investment funds increased by 1.8253 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, with a significant increase of 1.040028 trillion yuan in October. The total scale is currently 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale in the first 11 months of 2025 was 433.7 billion yuan [12][105] - In Q3 2025, the market value of A - share stocks held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan, a 18.00% increase from the previous quarter, while the CSI 300 index rose 17.90% during the same period. In the first three quarters of 2025, the market value of A - share stocks held by insurance funds increased by 1.193 trillion yuan, and after deducting scale growth, it increased by 758.4 billion yuan [12][107][108] - As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of equity funds was 323.3 billion yuan, with 137 billion yuan in Q3; the newly established share of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion yuan, with 53 billion yuan in Q3. In 2025, index funds had a net inflow of 104.9 billion yuan, while active equity funds had a net outflow of 444.9 billion yuan, and equity funds had a net outflow of 340 billion yuan [12] - In the period from April 7, 2025, to December 19, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 176.3 billion yuan; last week, it increased by 47.3 billion yuan. As of December 19, 2025, the ETF funds had a net inflow of 79.3 billion yuan [12] 9. Technical Analysis - Not provided in the report

Market Overview - The equity market experienced an overall increase during the trading period from December 29 to January 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.95% to close at 4083.67 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 3.79% to 14022.55 points [6][9] - The convertible bond market also saw a significant rise, with an overall increase of 4.16%, closing at 505.77 points [6][16] - Daily average trading volume in the equity market increased by approximately 31.33% week-on-week, reaching 25595.78 billion yuan [8] Investment Strategy and Outlook - The report suggests maintaining a focus on controlling drawdowns as a primary objective, with a recommendation to adjust expectations for convertible bonds in the current market environment [1] - The strategy emphasizes a dual-sector model, recognizing a "hot technology sector" alongside a "cool traditional sector," indicating a structural growth engine where investment is prioritized over consumption [1] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors such as consumer electronics, key materials, resources, and power distribution equipment, particularly as the annual report season approaches [1][3] Convertible Bond Market Insights - The report identifies the top ten convertible bonds with the highest potential for price premium recovery, including Liuyuan Convertible Bond and Lihua Convertible Bond [1] - During the trading period, approximately 94.49% of convertible bonds saw an increase, with 78.48% of bonds experiencing gains exceeding 2% [17] - The average daily trading volume for convertible bonds increased significantly by 16.95%, reaching 947.39 billion yuan [17] Sector Performance - In the equity market, 28 out of 31 sectors saw gains, with notable increases in defense, media, computing, and non-ferrous metals, which rose by 13.63%, 13.10%, 8.49%, and 8.56% respectively [14] - The report indicates that the convertible bond market's sentiment is improving, with a significant increase in trading volume and a higher percentage of bonds outperforming their underlying stocks [38][40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Accumulate" [1] Core Insights - The port thermal coal spot price increased by 17 CNY/ton week-on-week, closing at 699 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 12.17% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow rose by 4.15% [1][30] - The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 4.75% week-on-week, indicating a marginal decline in overall inventory levels, which, combined with the release of rigid demand, has driven coal prices upward. However, the report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a volatile trend due to high temperatures and competition from renewable energy sources [1][35] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.41% week-on-week, while the coal sector index increased by 5.70% [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector reached 742 million CNY, a significant increase of 222% week-on-week [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices showed a stable increase, with the price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong rising by 56 CNY/ton to 606 CNY/ton [17] - The port thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao increased by 17 CNY/ton, closing at 699 CNY/ton [17] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow to the Bohai Rim ports was 154.18 million tons, up 12.17% week-on-week, while the outflow was 161.95 million tons, up 4.15% [30] - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports increased by 22% week-on-week, indicating heightened shipping activity [35] 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending thermal coal elastic stocks such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy due to their low valuations [2][40]

Investment Rating - The industry rating has been upgraded to "Overweight" [9] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the coal market requires a "black swan" event to stimulate coal prices, with a focus on the exit of domestic capacity increases as a critical factor [2] - The report highlights the tightening of regulations in Indonesia, which could lead to reduced exports and support coal prices [3] - The report notes that the coal price has started to rebound due to increased daily consumption and cost support [31] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3818.02 points, up 6.26%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.48 percentage points, ranking 7th in the CITIC sector performance [73] Key Events - Since September 2021, over 500 million tons of coal production capacity have been added, which must be replaced by the end of 2025 to avoid risks of revocation of approvals [2] - The report indicates that the domestic coal market's supply-demand imbalance could be reversed if the exit of increased capacity is implemented [2] International Market Focus - Indonesia's new regulations aim to reduce production and increase domestic consumption, which could lead to a decrease in exports and support coal prices [3] - The report mentions that Indonesia's coal consumption is expected to grow by 9% in 2024, reaching 247 million tons, with significant consumption from the mining and power sectors [3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the implementation of fiscal and financial policies to stimulate domestic demand will positively impact the coal industry [9] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and potential for growth, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [12]

Macroeconomic Overview - In 2025, the CPI remained flat year-on-year at 0%, the lowest level since 2009, while the PPI decreased by 2.6%[3] - December 2025 CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, matching expectations, while core CPI also rose by 1.2%[1] - The PPI for December 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, slightly better than the expected 2.0%[1] Core Insights - CPI has risen for four consecutive months, reaching the highest level since March 2023, with core CPI also maintaining above 1% for four months[2] - The PPI has increased month-on-month for three consecutive months, driven by the non-involution sectors, while oil and petrochemical prices continue to decline[2] - For 2026, CPI is projected to rise to around 0.7%, supported by policies like trade-in programs and a narrowing decline in rental prices[2][5] Price Trends - In 2025, food prices fell by 1.5% year-on-year, marking a 25-year low, with energy prices down by 3.9%[3] - Core CPI saw a modest increase of 0.7% in 2025, with significant contributions from household appliances and communication tools, which rose by 1.8% and 0.6% respectively[3] - The international gold price surge led to a more than 40% increase in jewelry prices, significantly impacting the CPI[3] PPI Analysis - The PPI for 2025 averaged -2.6%, the second-lowest since 2016, with both production and living materials prices declining[3] - The decline in PPI was exacerbated by weak demand and excess capacity in sectors like real estate and infrastructure[3] - In 2026, PPI is expected to stabilize around -0.4%, influenced by rising prices in coal, steel, and lithium due to increased demand[5]

Fixed Income - The report indicates that credit spreads have narrowed across the board, demonstrating resilience in credit despite rising interest rates. During the week from January 4 to January 9, government bond yields generally increased, with 1Y, 3Y, and 10Y government bonds rising by 3 basis points (BP), while the 5Y bond rose by 4 BP and the 7Y bond by 2 BP. In contrast, credit bonds outperformed government bonds, with 1Y AA+ and above credit bond yields decreasing by 2 BP, while other grades increased by 1 BP. For 3Y AAA and AA grades, yields remained stable, while other grades decreased by 1-2 BP. The 5Y AA+ and above grades saw yields rise by 1 BP, while other grades increased by 3 BP. The 7Y AAA grade yields remained stable, while other grades decreased by 2 BP. The 10Y AAA credit bonds decreased by 1 BP, with other grades remaining stable. Overall, credit spreads narrowed, with 1Y AA+ and above credit spreads decreasing by 5 BP, and other grades down by 2 BP. For 3Y, spreads decreased by 3-5 BP across grades, while for 5Y, AA+ and above spreads decreased by 3 BP, and other grades down by 1 BP. The 7Y AAA grade spreads decreased by 2 BP, with other grades down by 4 BP, and for 10Y, spreads decreased by 3-4 BP across grades [3][9][20]. City Investment Bonds - The report notes that city investment bond spreads mostly decreased by 3-4 BP. The overall credit spread for AAA-rated platforms decreased by 3 BP, while AA and AA+ platforms saw a 4 BP decrease. By administrative level, provincial platform credit spreads generally decreased by 3 BP, while city and county-level platform spreads decreased by 4 BP. Specifically, AAA-rated spreads mostly decreased by 3-4 BP, with Inner Mongolia down by 2 BP, and Yunnan, Hainan, and Gansu down by 5-6 BP. AA+ rated platforms mostly saw decreases of 3-5 BP, with Xinjiang and Guizhou down by 1-2 BP, and Ningxia and Gansu down by 6-7 BP. AA-rated platforms mostly decreased by 4-5 BP, with Shaanxi down by 3 BP and Tianjin down by 6 BP [4][13][16]. Industry Bonds - The report highlights that while most industry bond spreads decreased, real estate bond spreads continued to widen. Specifically, the spreads for central state-owned enterprise real estate bonds widened slightly by 1-3 BP, while mixed-ownership real estate bonds saw a significant increase of 702 BP. In contrast, private enterprise real estate bond spreads decreased by 30 BP. Notable changes include Longfor's spread decreasing by 6 BP, CIFI's increasing by 55 BP, Vanke's decreasing by 974 BP, Midea's decreasing by 4 BP, Huafa's increasing by 17 BP, and Poly's increasing by 5 BP. Additionally, spreads for coal bonds decreased by 2-3 BP across grades, while steel and chemical bonds saw a decrease of 3 BP [20][21]. Perpetual Bonds - The report indicates that the spreads for secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds have significantly narrowed, with yields for 1Y secondary capital bonds decreasing by 2-3 BP and perpetual bonds down by 3-4 BP, compressing spreads by 5-6 BP. For 3Y, AA+ and above secondary bonds saw yields decrease by 1 BP, while AA secondary bonds and all grades of perpetual bonds saw yields decrease by 1-2 BP, compressing spreads by 4-5 BP. In the 5Y category, AAA- secondary capital bond yields increased by 1 BP, AA+ remained stable, and AA decreased by 1 BP, with perpetual bond yields remaining stable and spreads compressing by 3-5 BP [5][25]. Excess Spreads - The report notes that the excess spread for industry AAA-rated 3Y perpetual bonds remained stable at 14.84 BP, positioned at the 40.79% percentile since 2015. The 5Y perpetual bond excess spread slightly decreased by 0.01 BP to 13.20 BP, at the 32.21% percentile. Conversely, the excess spread for city investment AAA-rated 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 1.93 BP to 4.64 BP, at the 3.74% percentile, while the 5Y excess spread increased by 1.52 BP to 10.92 BP, at the 18.64% percentile [27][28].

公司公告汇总 晋能控股山西煤业股份有限公司对2024年年度报告中"合并财务报表项目注释-货币资金"部分内容进行 更正，将期末余额中库存现金调整为银行存款，合计金额不变。本次更正不涉及财务报表调整，不影响 公司2024年度财务状况和经营业绩。公司对此前披露文件中存在的问题表示歉意，并承诺加强信息披露 审核。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 截至2026年1月9日收盘，晋控煤业（601001）报收于14.5元，较上周的13.15元上涨10.27%。本周，晋 控煤业1月8日盘中最高价报14.9元。1月5日盘中最低价报13.16元。晋控煤业当前最新总市值242.69亿 元，在煤炭开采板块市值排名13/30，在两市A股市值排名869/5182。 本周关注点 公司公告汇总：晋控煤业更正2024年年报中货币资金注释，库存现金调整为银行存款，不影响财 务状况。 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 is projected to increase by 0.8% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a mixed economic outlook for 2025 [1][2][3] CPI Analysis - CPI has shown a continuous recovery for four months, reaching a new high since March 2023, with core CPI remaining above 1% for the same duration [1][2] - In December, the CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven by rising food and core consumer goods prices, while energy prices remained weak [6][7] - The annual CPI for 2025 is expected to average around 0%, the lowest level since 2009, primarily due to weak food and energy prices [3][4] PPI Analysis - The PPI for December is projected at -1.9%, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3][12] - The annual PPI for 2025 is expected to average -2.6%, the second-lowest since 2016, influenced by weak demand and excess capacity in various sectors [4][5] - Key drivers for PPI include the recovery in the non-ferrous metals sector and the impact of "anti-involution" policies, while the oil and petrochemical sectors continue to exert downward pressure [12][13] 2026 Outlook - For 2026, CPI is forecasted to slightly increase to 0.7%, supported by policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges and rising gold prices, while PPI is expected to stabilize at -0.4% [5][6] - Factors influencing the 2026 outlook include potential price increases in coal, steel, and lithium due to demand from energy storage and AI-related sectors [6][12]

Core Insights - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) announced that the main tasks of the deepening reform action have been largely completed, but further reforms are still necessary to meet targets [1] - By November 2025, central enterprises' revenue in strategic emerging industries is expected to exceed 11 trillion yuan, indicating significant growth in this sector [6][7] Group 1: Reform Progress - The SASAC has facilitated the integration and restructuring of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to enhance efficiency and focus on core competencies, with 116 strategic reorganizations involving 229 primary enterprises reported [3][2] - Local governments have initiated various restructuring efforts, such as the establishment of Hebei Water Development Group to improve water resource management and the integration of grain enterprises in Hebei [3] Group 2: Industry Transformation - Traditional industries are accelerating their transformation, with companies like Ansteel and China National Building Material increasing their share of high-end products and new materials [5] - The focus on digitalization, intelligence, and green transformation is being emphasized, with Guizhou increasing the weight of these factors in annual scientific and technological assessments [5] Group 3: Innovation and Investment - Central enterprises' R&D expenditure has seen an annual growth of 6.5%, with total spending exceeding 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024, and a 19% annual growth in basic research investment [7] - The government is promoting the integration of technological and industrial innovation, with a focus on key areas such as energy security and national defense [7] Group 4: Management and Performance - Performance evaluation is now closely linked to compensation and promotion within SOEs, with over 20,000 managerial personnel experiencing salary adjustments of more than 20% based on performance [9] - The implementation of flexible income distribution mechanisms and long-term incentive tools is becoming widespread, with various enterprises adopting innovative compensation strategies to motivate R&D teams [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends in CPI and PPI for December 2025, highlighting a month-on-month increase of 0.2% for both indices, with PPI marking its fifth consecutive month of positive growth. Year-on-year, CPI and PPI are reported at 0.8% and -1.9%, respectively, exceeding previous model predictions [1][4]. CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI increase of 0.2% is attributed to various sectors, with negative growth observed in pork, alcoholic beverages, rent, fuel, and traditional Chinese medicine. Positive growth is noted in fresh vegetables, fruits, medical services, gold jewelry, and durable goods [6][7]. - Durable goods prices showed significant improvement, particularly in household appliances, which saw a historical high month-on-month increase of 1.4% in December, likely influenced by seasonal factors and PPI transmission [6][8]. - Transportation tools experienced a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, above the ten-year average of -0.15%, possibly due to stabilization in car prices amid a "de-involution" context [6][8]. PPI Analysis - The month-on-month PPI increase of 0.2% is driven by a 0.8% rise in the mining industry, marking its fifth consecutive month of positive growth. Raw materials and processing industries also saw increases of 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively, the fastest rates of the year [2][9]. - In the living goods category, while food and durable goods continued to show negative growth, clothing and general daily necessities recorded increases of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, marking the second-highest points of the year [2][9]. - Specific industries showed price differentiation, with rising prices in coal mining and processing, contributing significantly to PPI growth. Additionally, prices in lithium-ion battery manufacturing and cement production increased by 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively [10][9]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the simulated deflation index is expected to rise gradually after hitting a low in July 2025, correlating with the timing of increased "de-involution" efforts. The central economic work conference indicates that addressing "involution" will be a key focus for 2026 [3][11]. - Historical economic cycles indicate that periods of nominal growth elasticity, such as 2006-2007 and 2010-2011, are characterized by strong internal demand stimulation. The outlook for 2026 suggests potential benefits from external demand due to fiscal expansions in developed economies and industrialization in developing countries [3][11].