证券研究报告 农林牧渔 周期不休，成长不止 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 24 日│中国内地 中期策略 2025年下半年猪价或超预期反弹（Q3末-Q4供应压力缓解+消费旺季支撑）， 叠加头部猪企成本优势强化，猪企盈利表现或超预期，建议关注牧原、温氏 等；饲料龙头海大集团有望受益于水产料景气回升及海外业务高增。宠物行 业景气高增趋势不改，2025 年或有提速，国产替代加速且剑指高端，25E 头部宠企营收及利润有望加速释放，推荐乖宝等，龙头崛起点燃板块情绪， 建议关注宠物用品/医疗/服务等板块的潜在机遇。零食量贩行业双寡头格局 成型，我们预计截至 2025 年 5 月鸣鸣/万辰市占率或达 34%/30%，规模效 应+议价能力提升等有望增厚行业龙头利润率表现，推荐万辰集团，建议关 注鸣鸣上市进程。 养殖链：重视生猪预期差，后周期关注海大集团 年后猪价持续强于预期。5 月下旬以来猪价中枢开始震荡下移，我们预计短 期养殖端降重出栏可能加速、行业库存或对应加速释放，Q3 末及 Q4 供应 压力或相应略有缓解，叠加 9 月前后逐步进入猪肉消费季节性旺季，下半年 猪价表现有望超预期。25H2 猪价表现或超预期+头部猪企成本 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-6-24 生猪均重下降，惜售情绪反复 油脂：技术下行压力增大，警惕地缘冲击风险 蛋⽩粕：阿根廷大豆产量预估上调，豆类区间上沿回调 ⽟⽶/淀粉：到车量高位，华北阶段性横盘 ⽣猪：体重库存下降，惜售情绪反复 橡㬵：延续震荡走势 合成橡㬵：方向不明确，区间震荡 纸浆：规则变化带来波动，基本面弱势压制涨势 棉花：棉价小幅走弱 ⽩糖：糖价短期反弹 原⽊：交割博弈持续，盘面近强远弱 【异动品种】 ⽣猪观点：体重库存下降，惜售情绪反复 信息： （1）现货价格：6月23日，河南生猪（外三元）价格14.72元/千克，环比 变化1.1%。 （2）期货价格：6月23日，生猪期货收盘价(活跃合约)13980元/吨，环比 变化+0.6%。 主要逻辑：（1）供应：短期，大猪出栏比例继续增加，出栏均重仍在下 降。中期，2025年1月~5月新生仔猪数量持续增加，按照仔猪→商品猪6个 月出栏时间推算，预计下半年生猪出栏量呈递增趋势，供应压力继续增 长。长期，当前产能仍在高位，据农业部口径，全国能繁母猪存栏在2024 年底增至高点后，2025年一季度母猪产能在 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 06 月 24 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，23 日生猪主力 2509 合约高开后探底回升窄幅震荡，尾盘收阴， 最高 14010 元/吨，最低 13925 元/吨，收盘报 139 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shennong Group, is accelerating its capacity expansion in response to the recovering pig market, with a planned investment of 550 million yuan to build three piglet breeding projects, aiming to increase annual output capacity by 870,000 piglets by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Capacity Expansion - Shennong Group announced an investment of 550 million yuan for three piglet breeding projects, which will add an annual output of 870,000 piglets [1][2]. - The projects include a 280 million yuan investment for a breeding base in Wenshan with an output of 450,000 piglets, a 150 million yuan investment for another base in Wenshan with an output of 240,000 piglets, and a 120 million yuan investment for a breeding base in Guangxi with an output of 180,000 piglets [2]. - The investment aligns with the company's strategic focus on the "Yunnan + Guangxi" dual-line strategy, enhancing its competitive advantage in the southwest region [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.97%, and a net profit of 229 million yuan, a staggering increase of 6510.85% [1][5]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 5.584 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 43.51%, with a net profit of 687 million yuan, up 271.16% [5]. - The increase in performance is attributed to both rising pig prices and effective cost control, with the average selling price of pigs increasing from 14.01 yuan/kg in March 2023 to 14.83 yuan/kg in March 2024 [5][6]. Group 3: Cost Control and Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced its breeding costs, with the total cost per kilogram dropping from 16.2 yuan in 2023 to below 14 yuan in 2024, and further down to 12.3 yuan in Q1 2025 [6]. - The company aims to achieve a target cost of 12 yuan/kg by 2025 through various strategies, including optimizing breeding genetics and enhancing herd health [6]. - Shennong Group's operational efficiency is supported by a complete industry chain, including feed processing, pig breeding, slaughtering, and food processing [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The company has returned to profitability in the first quarter after three years, focusing on its core businesses of feed and pig farming, and is optimistic about its overall development [1] Cost Reduction Efforts - The company is continuously optimizing pig farming costs, aiming for a cost of 12.5 yuan/kg by Q1 2025 and 12 yuan/kg by the end of 2024 for its top 25% production lines [1] - The company is shifting its focus from merely raising pigs to improving pig quality through genetic enhancements and has increased investments in breeding systems [1][2] Quality and Market Strategy - The company is exploring a full industry chain development model, establishing a meat quality laboratory to analyze consumer demand and optimize breeding and feeding strategies accordingly [2] - The company remains cautious about future pig prices, emphasizing cost management to maintain stable profits regardless of market fluctuations [2] Technological Advancements - The company is actively exploring the application of AI and digital technologies in pig farming to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [3] - Various digital tools, such as autonomous robots and handheld weight estimation devices, are being implemented to improve operational efficiency [3][4] International Feed Business Expansion - The feed business is a key growth driver, with overseas feed operations expected to become a significant growth segment, targeting a net profit of 9.7 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - The company plans to increase overseas feed production capacity by 3-4 million tons over the next 3-5 years, focusing on high-margin products and expanding in key international markets [5]

2025 年 6 月 23 日 库存周期轮动，估值重置 ---2025 年生猪期货半年度行情展望 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001894 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：2025 年产业新格局基本形成，集团延续增量趋势，育种端口利润扩大，规模场及散户部分转为专业育肥模式， 灵活性再度增强，原料及管理的双驱动带动成本中枢进一步下移。上半年供应增量兑现并不充分，且社会库存处于低位水平， 整体处于累库阶段；下半年供应增量逐步释放，但是四季度需求季节性回升，处于供需双增阶段，月度供应变化相对平稳， 库存周期轮动决定价格方向。 我们的逻辑：供给端，2025 年下半年标猪出栏数据预期增量，但三四季度供应相对平稳，着重关注库存周期轮动导致供应前 后挪移；需求端，2025 年成本中枢或进一步下移，冻品消费部分转为鲜品消费，若现货价格阶段性或跌破成本，届时无论常 规消费，还是投机需求均存在短期支撑。 投资展望：盘面交易愈加成熟，但也过度交易更远的多轮库存周期演绎，伴随时间临近，无论是供应数据还是现 ...

正信期货生猪周报 2025-6-23 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 政策引导下猪价偏强震荡 观点小结 | 生猪 | 短期观点 本周样本养殖企业商品猪出栏均重连续两周持续下降、标肥价差基本持平、大猪出栏占比小幅增加。 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 据悉，在5月底相关部门召集头部猪企开会后，6月10日农业农村部也召开了生猪生产调度会，全国 | | | | 畜牧总站和各省农业厅参加。这次会议对各省提出了具体的生猪生产调控目标，主要政策包括：全 | | | 供应 | 国能繁母猪调减100万头至3950万头；优化生猪生产，加大弱仔淘汰力度，引导降低出栏体重，国储 | 偏多 | | | 收储体重要求降至115公斤；加强监测，地方也要将二育等情况纳入监测，每月向农业部上报各地能 | | | | 繁、存栏、均重、二育等情况。 | | | | 本次调控并不仅限于头部集团企业，而是面对整个生猪养殖行业的调控。目前头部企业已经做出表 | | | | 率，稳步降低能繁母猪存栏量，并明确了降重计划，未来2-3个月的时间里将均重将至120公斤。 | | | | 本周屠宰开工小幅下降，屠宰利润小幅下降 ...

据介绍，农业农村部自2021年开展生猪产能逆周期调控以来，生猪市场价格波动明显收窄，产能增减更为有序有度。2019年—2021年，生 猪月均价格最大价差分别为每公斤22.3元、7.4元、22.7元，2022年—2024年最大价差分别收窄至每公斤13.9元、2.7元和5.8元，今年以来生猪价 格波动幅度继续收窄。专家表示，今年1—5月份，生猪月均价最大价差仅为1.6元，农业农村部在去年9月份及时发布产能过剩预警信息，采取 多种措施遏制产能过快扩张。5月末，全国能繁母猪存栏量4042万头，较去年年末高点减少了38万头。 央视网消息：农业农村部最新数据显示，5月份以来，全国生猪市场供应充裕，生猪价格波动幅度收窄。 据农业农村部监测，当前生猪市场供应总体充裕，叠加"五一"、端午后节日消费效应转弱，近期全国生猪价格小幅回落。5月份，全国生 猪平均价格为每公斤15元，环比下降1.3%，同比下降3.7%。 在山东德州平原县，石鹏越的养殖场年出栏生猪2000多头，这两天，他刚出栏了一批育肥猪。石鹏越说，最近几个月，生猪养殖整体处于 微利保本状态，不过，他通过开展差异化品种养殖的400头黑猪效益较好。此外，当地养殖户还通过使用 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig market is experiencing fluctuations, with prices showing a recent rebound after a period of decline, but overall demand remains weak, leading to concerns about future price stability [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Trends - As of June 23, the main contract for live pig futures reached 13,975 yuan/ton, up nearly 5% from the low of 13,350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month [1] - The overall price of live pigs has been on a downward trend since the third quarter of 2024, currently at relatively low levels [1] - The average price of live pigs nationwide rose to 14.22 yuan/kg by June 20, following a drop to 13.94 yuan/kg on June 9 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for live pigs has weakened, leading to an oversupply situation that has caused prices to drop significantly [1][3] - The average trading price for 7 kg piglets in Hunan fell to 460 yuan/head by June 19, a decrease of 85 yuan/head or 15.6% since early May [2] - The increase in feed costs, particularly for corn and soybean meal, has further pressured the profitability of pig farming [3] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Analysis - As of June 19, the average profit for self-breeding pigs was 137.93 yuan/head, down 66.12 yuan/head from early April, while the profit for piglets was 153.42 yuan/head, down 151.05 yuan/head [3] - The average feed cost for self-breeding pigs was 934.88 yuan, and for piglet fattening, it was 889.94 yuan, both showing increases from early April [3] Group 4: Slaughtering Trends - The daily slaughter volume for sample enterprises remained stable, with a range between 165,000 to 186,000 heads, influenced by increased supply and the profitability of fresh meat segmentation [4] - The average gross profit per head for slaughtering was 28.56 yuan, up 222.38% compared to the same period last year [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to face continued downward pressure on prices due to increased slaughtering rates and weak demand, although there are signs of improved market sentiment [5] - The third quarter may see a seasonal decline in pig stocks, potentially supporting higher average prices compared to the second quarter [4]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry is expected to maintain growth in hog output until at least September 2025, but overall hog prices are projected to remain under pressure, leading to a potential decline in profitability for the industry [1] - The number of breeding sows has started to decline since December 2024, with a slight increase in February 2025, and a 1.03% decrease in April 2025 compared to the peak in 2024, indicating a low overall capacity reduction in the industry [1] - The price of piglets has begun to decline since May 2025, which may prompt breeding farms to actively cull sows, leading to an expected simultaneous drop in hog and piglet prices in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Feed Industry - China's feed production reached 10.3 million tons from January to April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, driven by the recovery in hog stocks, increased aquaculture, and stable poultry stocks [2] - Vietnam's animal feed production also saw growth, with a total output of 4.72 million tons (up 7.69% year-on-year) and aquaculture feed production of 2.84 million tons (up 8.37% year-on-year), indicating a robust demand for feed [2] - The growth in livestock and aquaculture stocks, along with increased feed penetration rates, suggests that Chinese feed companies are likely to experience good growth opportunities abroad [2] Group 3: Pet Industry - The export of pet food from China has been growing, with a total export volume of 110,200 tons from January to April 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16%, and an export value of 3.22 billion yuan, up 6% [3] - Domestic consumption of pet food remains strong, with online sales of cat and dog food reaching 9.05 billion yuan from January to April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17% [3] - The chain rate of pet hospitals in China is still relatively low compared to developed countries, indicating potential for improvement in this area [3]