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市场预期反复,矿价底部震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 09:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated at the bottom, and market sentiment declined at the phased bottom. The core factors driving market ups and downs in the short term are weak. Overall, the current terminal steel demand has entered a seasonal off - peak season on a month - on - month basis, and funds may trade the weak reality of the terminal. However, the downward space for iron ore prices at the current valuation bottom is small, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3]. - The trading strategy suggests a sideways movement for single - side trading, a long 9/1 inter - period spread for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Market Situation**: Iron ore prices are at the bottom and fluctuating, with weak short - term driving factors. Terminal steel demand is in a seasonal off - peak, but the downward space for iron ore prices is limited [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: sideways movement; Arbitrage: mainly long 9/1 inter - period spread; Options: wait - and - see [3]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Mainstream Mines**: Global iron ore shipments increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Mainstream mines entered the shipping peak, and domestic arrivals increased significantly on a week - on - week basis. However, the total shipments of mainstream mines from the beginning of the year still contributed to a reduction, and the replenishment volume since the second quarter was limited. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 29.39 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%/3.8 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.25 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 1.1%/4.4 million tons, and Brazil's were 6.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%/5.4 million tons [6][8][10]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments increased rapidly on a week - on - week basis. The current shipping level is close to that of the same period last year, but it has little impact on the overall supply. From a monthly perspective, the year - on - year reduction in non - Australian and non - Brazilian shipments is difficult to reverse in the short term. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments was 5.29 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4%/4.8 million tons [11][12]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025 to date, domestic hot metal production increased by 3.8%/13.8 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 2%/8.9 million tons year - on - year. Building material demand decreased by 3.1%/6 million tons year - on - year, while non - building material demand increased by 5.3%/10.5 million tons year - on - year. Domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) increased by 1.5%/5.1 million tons year - on - year. Although the overall growth rate of manufacturing steel demand has slowed down, it is expected to maintain its resilience [24][27]. - **Overseas Demand**: In the first half of the year, overseas iron element consumption increased slightly year - on - year [3]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, the congestion decreased rapidly, and the total inventory of steel mills' iron ore decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, but the total inventory of domestic imported iron ore increased slightly on a week - on - week basis. The current total iron element inventory is at a relatively low level in the past five years, which provides certain support for iron ore price valuation [14][16][22]. Price and Spread - **Price**: The prices of imported iron ore at ports, including the 62% Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder price, and Qingdao Port Carajás fines price, are presented in the report [33][34]. - **Profit**: The import profits of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special fines, etc., are shown, and the profits of East China's mainstream steel mills are running at a low level [35][36][37]. - **Spread**: The differences between domestic and foreign US dollar prices, the basis rate of iron ore, and the spreads between different contracts are analyzed. The basis of the iron ore main contract is expected to converge, and the 9/1 inter - period spread is expected to widen [39][40][44]. Scrap Steel - This week, the total daily consumption of 255 steel mills' scrap steel was 542,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. The daily consumption of 89 short - process steel mills was 173,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last week. The total inventory of 147 steel mills' scrap steel was 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from last week [42]. Domestic Iron Concentrate - The production, demand, and inventory data of domestic iron concentrate, including the production of domestic iron concentrate, North China iron concentrate, and the inventory of 363 mines' iron concentrate, are provided [46][47].
瑞达期货铁矿石市场周报-20250606
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 09:32
「2025.06.06」 铁矿石市场周报 研究员:蔡跃辉 添加客服 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源:瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格:截至6月6日收盘,铁矿主力合约期价为707.5(+5.5)元/吨,青岛港麦克粉776(-1)元/干吨。 2. 发运:本期澳巴发运总量环比+242.3万吨。2025年05月27日-06月02日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量3431.0万吨,环比增加 242.3万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2868.8万吨,环比增加78.8万吨。澳洲发运总量1920.5万吨,环比减少92.7万吨,其中澳 洲发往中国的量1499.8万吨,环比减少281.4万吨。巴西发运量948.3万吨,环比增加171.5万吨。 3. 到港:本期47港到港量+253.3万吨。2025年05月26日-06月01日中国47港到港总量2597.4万吨,环比增加253.3万 ...
反内卷语境下重读资本周期:资本周期:经典案例和新思考
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-06 05:10
Group 1 - The capital cycle analysis framework predicts industry changes through supply-side indicators, focusing on capital expenditure and industry concentration to reveal how supply changes affect future returns [1][11] - Monitoring the alignment between corporate capital expenditure and profit data is crucial to determine whether an industry is in an over-investment phase [1][11] - Companies that have undergone market cleansing and achieved second growth through business transformation or innovation often establish solid market positions and competitive barriers [1][11] Group 2 - Historical cases indicate that industry prosperity often conceals crises, and investors should remain vigilant during capital expansion peaks while seeking quality targets with recovery potential during industry troughs [2][3] - The evolution of the telecom and iron ore industries illustrates the typical path of "demand recovery - capital influx - capacity accumulation - price collapse - industry consolidation" [2][3] - Technological innovation accelerates capital cycle iterations, necessitating investors to avoid risks from traditional industry disruptions while seizing structural opportunities from emerging technologies [2][3] Group 3 - Capital market behaviors serve as important indicators for assessing industry cycles, with active financing periods often coinciding with industry peaks [3][11] - Excessive financing in an industry should prompt careful evaluation of potential capacity accumulation risks, while a quiet capital market during troughs may present good investment opportunities [3][11] - The capital cycle framework emphasizes the importance of liquidity excess, over-investment, and speculative behaviors in capital markets [17][19] Group 4 - The capital cycle framework has evolved through three stages: initial construction, expansion and supplementation, and deepening application, enhancing the understanding of industry performance and future potential [11][14] - The framework incorporates various indicators, including HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) and IPO activity, to provide a comprehensive view of market structure and competition [11][14] - Empirical research validates the effectiveness of the capital cycle framework in predicting industry performance and guiding investment strategies [11][14] Group 5 - The telecom industry in the 1980s-1990s experienced significant changes, transitioning from monopoly to competition, followed by over-investment and subsequent market consolidation [48][49] - The industry's evolution included phases of high concentration, capital expenditure surges, and eventual market rationalization through mergers and acquisitions [48][49] - The recovery of profitability and stability in the telecom sector was marked by the emergence of large multinational companies leveraging technological innovation [48][49]
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250605
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 05:17
| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月5日 | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3110 | 3090 | 20 | 140 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3150 | 20 | 200 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3240 | 3200 | 40 | 270 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2966 | 2910 | ટેર | 144 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2974 | 2928 | 46 | 136 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2970 | 2905 | ર્શ્ટ | 140 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3200 | 3170 | 30 | 110 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3130 | 3100 | 30 | 40 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3240 ...
铁矿石早报-20250605
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 03:25
Group 1: Spot Market - The latest price of the Platts 62 Index is 95.35, with a daily change of -0.95 and a weekly change of -1.10 [1] - The price of Newman powder is 726, with a daily increase of 3 and a weekly decrease of 3. Its discount to the futures price is 775.8, and the import profit is -23.18 [1] - The price of PB powder is 732, with a daily increase of 6 and a weekly decrease of 1. Its discount to the futures price is 774.5, and the import profit is -4.63 [1] - Other Australian mainstream iron ore varieties also show different price changes and import profit situations [1] - Brazilian mainstream iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines and Brazilian blends also have corresponding price and profit data [1] - Non - mainstream iron ore varieties from different regions also have their own price and profit indicators [1] - The price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 914, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 6, and its discount to the futures price is 801.0 [1] Group 2: Futures Market - For Dalian Commodity Exchange contracts, the latest price of i2601 is 666.0, with a daily increase of 7.5 and a weekly increase of 2.0. The monthly spread is 38.5, and the basis is 96.8 [1] - The latest price of i2605 is 648.0, with a daily increase of 7.5 and a weekly increase of 2.5. The monthly spread is 18.0, and the basis is 114.8 [1] - The latest price of i2509 is 704.5, with a daily increase of 9.0 and a weekly increase of 6.0. The monthly spread is - 56.5, and the basis is 58.3 [1] - For Singapore Exchange contracts, the latest price of FE01 is 90.95, with a daily decrease of 0.71 and a weekly decrease of 0.97. The basis is -72.7 [1] - The latest price of FE05 is 89.22, with a daily decrease of 0.76 and a weekly decrease of 9.93. The monthly spread is 1.73, and the basis is -76.7 [1] - The latest price of FE09 is 92.95, with a daily decrease of 0.97 and a weekly decrease of 1.48 [1]
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250605
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 01:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a weak and stable operation, with the price continuing to fluctuate. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2509 are respectively "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation". Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [1]. - The iron ore fundamentals are relatively stable. The steel mill production is weakening, and the ore demand is falling from a high level with room for further reduction in the off - season. The port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are rising, and the overseas ore supply remains high. The domestic ore production decline due to inspections is not sustainable. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation makes the iron ore fundamentals weak and stable, and the price is under pressure. However, due to the large futures price discount, there is resistance to downward movement. The price maintains a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are weak and stable, and the ore price continues to oscillate [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore fundamentals are relatively stable. Steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is falling from a high level. There is still room for reduction in the off - season, but the current decline is not large, which supports the ore price. Port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are rising, and the overseas ore supply remains high. The domestic ore production decline due to inspections is not sustainable. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation makes the fundamentals weak and stable, and the price is under pressure. Due to the large futures price discount, there is resistance to downward movement. The price maintains a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2].
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250605
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 01:20
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间:2025年06月05日08时09分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读: 消息面上,有传言称外蒙将上调煤炭资源税至 20%,目前尚没有该国官方消息发布。 特朗普将钢铝关税提高至 50%,可能对钢材出口形成更大的 压力。 目前政策面利多基本兑现,前期中美贸易紧张局势缓解也体现在价格中 。房地产仍处于筑底过程中,对钢材的需求仍边际减弱。上周我的钢 铁公布的数据显示,产量有所回落,厂库下降,社库继续回落,总库存下降,表观需求环比微幅上升,数据对期价有所提振。从需求的季节性规律 看,表观需求高峰期已过,随着雨季和高温天气的到来,需求将进一步走弱。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限。钢企普遍认为,行业确实需要减产, 但近期钢企亏损状况有所改善,企业主动减产的动力偏弱。整体来看,目前市场逐渐由强现实向弱现实转变 ,弱预期也没有发生实质性的改变。从 技术上看,价格跌破了近期的震荡区间,形成向下的有效突破,短线在消息面刺激下的反弹不影响趋势的延续 。 操作建议: 空单持有 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | ...
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250605
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 00:47
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The US ADP and ISM non - manufacturing data were worse than expected, leading to a weaker US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. China's May PMI data improved, and the economy continued to expand, boosting domestic risk appetite. Short - term, the stock index may fluctuate, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; the treasury bond may oscillate at a high level, and it's better to observe carefully. For commodities, black may rebound from a low level, and it's advisable to observe carefully; non - ferrous metals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; energy and chemicals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to observe carefully; precious metals may be strong at a high level, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US May ADP employment was 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous 62,000. The May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, shrinking for the first time in nearly a year. The US dollar index weakened due to these factors and the president's call for a rate cut, and global risk appetite increased. Domestic: China's May PMI data improved, the economy expanded, and short - term domestic risk appetite was boosted. Although the US tightened restrictions on China's semiconductor and aircraft engine sectors, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also lifted domestic risk appetite [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as beauty care, clothing and home textiles, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. China's May PMI data improvement and the expected call between Chinese and US leaders boosted domestic risk appetite. The market focused on US trade policies and negotiations. Short - term, it's advisable to be cautious and go long [3]. Precious Metals - Supported by a weaker US dollar and weak US data, precious metals rose slightly on Wednesday. COMEX gold August contract reached $3397 per ounce. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9, the lowest since June 2024. ADP data showed the fewest private - sector job increases in over two years. The labor market showed signs of cooling. Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term and have a solid long - term upward trend. It's advisable to focus on the employment report on Friday [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded on Wednesday. The rebound of coking coal and coke prices improved market sentiment. The actual demand was okay, with inventory decreasing but apparent consumption slightly falling. The supply side saw a slight increase in hot - rolled coil production and a slight decrease in building materials production. Steel may oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday. The iron - making molten iron output declined for three consecutive weeks, but the high profitability of steel mills led to different views on the decline path. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volumes increased this week. The delay of FMG's iron bridge project should be noted. Iron ore may oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Wednesday. The demand for ferroalloys decreased slightly. The production of silicon manganese increased slightly. The prices of raw materials were weak, and the market transaction was average. Silicon iron and silicon manganese may oscillate in the short - term [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Saudi Arabia intends to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August or September, and the improvement of the Canadian wildfire situation led to a slight decline in oil prices [7]. - **Asphalt**: With the decline of oil prices, asphalt oscillated narrowly. Demand recovered to a limited extent. The basis of major consumption areas decreased, and the inventory destocking stagnated. Asphalt will follow crude oil to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [7]. - **PX**: The PX price remained high, and PXN was around 270. Short - term maintenance was relatively high, and with the support of crude oil, PX will oscillate strongly. However, the reduction of PTA long - term contracts and the lack of gasoline - blending demand may lead to a slight decline in PX demand later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remained at +200, and the 9 - 1 structure was around 140. The downstream was in a cash - flow deficit, with weak new orders. PTA may oscillate weakly later [8][9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the rebound of black metals, ethylene glycol recovered. Although there is some support at 4300, the supply recovery of synthetic - gas - made ethylene glycol is certain, and the probability of a sharp rise is low. It may form a bottom, and short - term trading can be observed [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillated weakly. Terminal orders recovered slowly, and the downstream may reduce production. Short - fiber may continue to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The possible call between Chinese and US leaders boosted market sentiment. The copper ore supply was relatively tight, while the production of electrolytic copper was high. The demand may decline as the peak season ended. Copper may oscillate in the short - term [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the overall commodity market, aluminum prices rose. There is no clear market logic currently, and aluminum may oscillate in the short - term. Later, attention should be paid to the change in social inventory and the high - tariff risk [10]. - **Tin**: Affected by the slow possible resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, tin prices rose. The domestic tin ore supply was tight, and the demand was mixed. Tin may stabilize in the short - term, but the high - tariff risk may put pressure on prices [11]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Supported by a weaker US dollar, CBOT soybeans and grains may maintain a range - bound market. The US soybean sowing progress was 84%, and the weather was stable, lacking continuous weather premium [12]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills may continue to recover, and soybean meal lacks a stable upward driver. The supply of rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the port inventory may decline. The market's expectation of trade tension decreased. The premium of soybean and rapeseed meal may decline if the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [12][13]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.58%. Malaysia's production and inventory are expected to increase, and the external market is weak. Indonesia's 2024/2025 palm oil production is estimated to be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's is estimated to be 19 million tons [13]. - **Live Pigs**: After the holiday, the supply and demand of live pigs were both weak. Pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term price increase due to the narrowing of the basis [14]. - **Corn**: The northeast corn产区 had a strong intention to support prices, and the north - south port corn inventory may continue to decline. The substitution of wheat for corn in feed may not affect the overall trend. The corn futures market was inactive, and there is no upward impetus currently [14].
周报:钢铁关税提高,钢价承压下行-20250604
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 11:10
Report Information - Report Title: Steel Tariff Increase, Steel Prices Under Pressure - Weekly Report 20250603 [1] - Researcher: Lin Na [2] - Contact Information: Email: linna_qh@ccnew.com; Phone: 0371 - 58620083 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is facing downward pressure due to the increase in import steel tariffs and the approaching of the off - season. Steel prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term. Iron ore, coking coal, and coke are also expected to show weak trends due to supply - demand imbalances [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - Steel prices have continuously declined due to the intensification of overseas risk disturbances and the approaching of the off - season. Futures prices have dropped significantly, and the basis has widened [9]. - Spot prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke have all decreased. The long - and short - position holdings of futures contracts have changed, and inventory has generally decreased [9]. 02. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis Production - National weekly production of rebar decreased by 2.58% week - on - week to 225.51 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 4.54% week - on - week to 319.55 million tons [15][17]. - Rebar production from blast furnaces and electric furnaces both decreased, with blast furnace production at 200.12 million tons (down 1.22% week - on - week) and electric furnace production at 25.39 million tons (down 12.08% week - on - week) [22]. Operating Rate - The blast furnace operating rate remained stable at 83.87% (up 0.22% week - on - week), and the electric furnace operating rate increased to 77.78% (up 0.78% week - on - week) [27]. Profit - Rebar profit slightly increased to +90 yuan/ton (up 2.27% week - on - week), while hot - rolled coil profit decreased to +33 yuan/ton (down 17.5% week - on - week) [31]. Demand - Rebar apparent consumption increased by 0.63% week - on - week to 248.68 million tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption increased by 4.43% week - on - week to 326.93 million tons [36]. Inventory - Rebar total inventory decreased by 3.83% week - on - week to 581.05 million tons, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased by 2.17% week - on - week to 332.81 million tons, with both factory and social inventories decreasing [40][45]. Downstream Industries - In the real estate market, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.12% week - on - week, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.97% week - on - week [48]. - In April 2025, automobile production and sales decreased by 12.9% and 11.2% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 8.9% and 9.8% year - on - year respectively [51]. 03. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 3.72% week - on - week to 2830.6 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 17.91% week - on - week to 2536.5 million tons [58]. Demand - Daily hot metal production decreased by 1.69 million tons week - on - week to 241.91 million tons, and the port clearance volume of iron ore decreased by 0.13% week - on - week to 326.68 million tons [63]. Inventory - Iron ore inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.87% week - on - week to 13866.58 million tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 1.92% week - on - week to 8754.33 million tons [69]. 04. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased by 0.94% week - on - week to 85.49%, and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased by 29.10% week - on - week to 14.97 million tons [75]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants decreased by 24 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 39 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.28% week - on - week to 75.66% [83]. Demand - The daily hot metal production was 241.91 million tons (down 1.69 million tons week - on - week) [5]. Inventory - Coking coal inventory in independent coking plants decreased by 2.88% week - on - week to 716.64 million tons, and coking coal inventory in ports increased by 0.51% week - on - week to 303.09 million tons [89]. - Coke inventory in independent coking plants increased by 7.15% week - on - week to 78.33 million tons, and coke inventory in ports decreased by 2.65% week - on - week to 217.18 million tons [95]. Spot Price - Coking coal prices showed a weak trend, and the second - round price reduction of coke was implemented [96]. 05. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has widened, and the spread between the 10 - 01 contracts of rebar has widened [103]. - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore has slightly widened, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has slightly narrowed [106].
铁矿石早报-20250604
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 07:48
Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: June 4, 2025 [1] Core Data Summary Spot Market - **Australian Ore**: Newman powder was at 723, down 7 daily and 6 weekly; PB powder was at 726, down 9 daily and 14 weekly; Mac powder was at 705, down 11 daily and 15 weekly; Jinbuba was at 681, down 10 daily and 15 weekly; Super Special powder was at 613, down 7 daily and 2 weekly; Carajás powder was at 820, down 8 daily and 12 weekly; Roy Hill powder was at 696, down 9 daily and 14 weekly; Robe River powder was at 709, down 7 daily and 15 weekly; Atlas powder was at 647, down 6 daily and 8 weekly [2] - **Brazilian Ore**: Brazilian blend was at 748, down 9 daily and 9 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 was at 699, down 9 daily and 14 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG was at 704, down 9 daily and 14 weekly [2] - **Other Regions**: Ukrainian concentrate was at 792, down 5 daily and 2 weekly; 61% Indian powder was at 661, down 10 daily and 15 weekly; Karara concentrate was at 797, down 5 daily and 2 weekly; South African powder was at 786, down 9 daily and 14 weekly; 57% Indian powder was at 559, down 7 daily and 2 weekly [2] - **Domestic Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate was at 914, down 6 daily and 6 weekly [2] Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 was at 658.5, down 8.0 daily and 13.0 weekly; i2605 was at 640.5, down 6.5 daily and 11.0 weekly; i2509 was at 695.5, down 6.5 daily and 11.0 weekly [2] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 was at 91.66, down 0.24 daily and up 0.39 weekly; FE05 was at 89.98, down 9.14 daily and 9.10 weekly; FE09 was at 93.92, down 0.31 daily and up 0.16 weekly [2] Other Data - **Import Profits**: Newman powder had an import profit of -17.66; PB powder had an import profit of -3.64; Mac powder had an import profit of -2.50; Jinbuba had an import profit of -2.73; Super Special powder had an import profit of 2.93; Carajás powder had an import profit of 10.82; Brazilian blend had an import profit of 3.44; Roy Hill powder had an import profit of 0.09 [2] - **Spread Data**: The spread between i2601 and i2605 was 37.0, up 3.3 weekly; the spread between i2605 and i2509 was 18.0, up 1.3 weekly; the spread between i2509 and i2601 was -55.0, up 1.3 weekly [2] Data Source - The data is sourced from MYSTEEL [5]