2025 年 5 月 3 日 公司研究 业绩具备韧性，产能外延增长可期 ——山西焦煤（000983.SZ）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件： 2025 年 4 月 28 日，公司发布了 2024 年度报告及 2025 年一季报。2024 年，公司营业收入 452.9 亿元，同比-18.4%，归母净利润 31.1 亿元，同比-54.1%， 扣非净利润 30.2 亿元，同比-55.8%；2025Q1 公司营业收入 90.3 亿元（同比 -14.5%、环比-26.0%），归母净利润 6.8 亿元（同比-28.3%、环比+159.8%）， 扣非净利润 7.3 亿元（同比-19.1%、环比+186.8%）。 风险提示：钢材需求大幅回落；焦煤进口超预期增长。 公司盈利预测与估值简表 | 指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 55,523 | 45,290 | 43,759 | 43,909 | 44,059 | | 营业收入增长率 | -14.82% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company has excellent cost control and that ongoing construction projects are expected to enhance performance [3][4] - The coal business experienced a decline in both volume and price, but the company is expected to stabilize due to long-term contract pricing [9][10] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.692 billion yuan, down 56.5% year-on-year [8] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 1.62%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [8] Coal Business Analysis - In Q1 2025, the company produced 4.31 million tons of commercial coal, a decrease of 18% year-on-year, and sold 2.97 million tons, down 26% year-on-year [9] - The unit price of commercial coal was 938 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 520 yuan, down 12% year-on-year [9] - The gross profit per ton of coal was 418 yuan, a decrease of 28% year-on-year [9] Construction Projects - The company is progressing with the construction of its first large-scale coal mine in Inner Mongolia, with an annual capacity of 8 million tons, expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [9] - The Xinhai coal mine has entered a new phase of systematic recovery [9] Chemical Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company saw a decline in both coke and methanol sales, with coke production at 740,000 tons (down 15% year-on-year) and sales at 700,000 tons (down 19% year-on-year) [9] - The unit price of coke was 1,499 yuan per ton, down 35% year-on-year, leading to a sales revenue of 1.051 billion yuan, a decrease of 47% [9] - Methanol production was 120,000 tons (up 31% year-on-year), but sales were only 40,000 tons (down 47% year-on-year) [9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 63.4 billion yuan, 67.9 billion yuan, and 70.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year changes of -4%, +7%, and +4% [9] - Net profits attributable to shareholders are forecasted to be 3.2 billion yuan, 3.9 billion yuan, and 4.4 billion yuan for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -34%, +23%, and +10% [9] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.19 yuan, 1.47 yuan, and 1.62 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10, 8, and 7 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, with a continued downward trend in Q1 2025, primarily driven by decreased coal sales and pressure on other business segments [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 45.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.1 billion yuan, down 54.10% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 9.03 billion yuan, a decline of 14.5%, and a net profit of 680 million yuan, down 28.33% [1]. Coal Production and Sales - The decline in coal sales was the main reason for the performance drop in 2024, with total coal sales of 25.6 million tons, including significant decreases in various coal types: coking coal down 20.3%, fat coal down 17.67%, and lean coal down 12.37% [2]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 5.43% to 1,037 yuan per ton, with coking coal priced at 1,544 yuan per ton, also down 5.4% [2]. Power and Other Business Segments - The power segment turned profitable in 2024, with revenue of 6.87 billion yuan, despite a decrease in electricity sales by 5.94% [3]. - The coking and building materials segments continued to face challenges, with coking revenue down 9.46% to 8.7 billion yuan and building materials revenue down 30.44% to 280 million yuan [3]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 36.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years, alongside a forecasted net profit of 2.12 billion yuan for 2025 [4].

Group 1 - The core investment strategy of Honghu Fund in Q1 2025 involved significant increases in holdings of Yili Co. and Shaanxi Coal, while maintaining its position in China Telecom [1][5][8] - Honghu Fund's holdings include 1.53 billion shares of Yili Co. valued at 4.289 billion yuan, and 1.16 billion shares of Shaanxi Coal valued at 2.304 billion yuan as of the end of Q1 2025 [5][8] - The fund's investment in China Telecom remained unchanged, with a holding of 760 million shares valued at 5.979 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in market value due to stock price appreciation [5][8] Group 2 - The fund's sector allocation shows a distribution of 47.56% in communication services, 34.12% in data services, and 18.33% in coal mining [4][3] - The total number of stocks held by Honghu Fund is three, with two stocks increased and one stock unchanged in Q1 2025 [3][5] - The insurance capital market is experiencing a significant increase in long-term stock investments, with the scale rising from 500 billion yuan to 1.62 trillion yuan, indicating a growing trend of insurance funds entering the equity market [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector experienced a significant pullback on April 30, 2025, with the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index declining by 0.81% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 13:13 on April 30, 2025, the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) fell by 0.81%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Leading gainers included Huayu Automotive (600741) up 4.18%, Caibai Shares (605599) up 3.84%, and Shanxi Natural Gas (002267) up 2.78% [1] - Major decliners included Huaxia Bank (600015) down 8.43%, Daqin Railway (601006) down 3.99%, and Beijing Bank (601169) down 3.83% [1] - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF (159515) decreased by 0.75%, with a latest price of 1.06 yuan [1] - Over the past two weeks, the National Enterprise Dividend ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.75%, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF saw a significant increase in scale, growing by 338.16 million yuan over the past week, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [2] - The ETF's share count increased by 3 million shares in the past week, also ranking in the top half among comparable funds [2] - The latest net inflow of funds into the ETF was 224.57 million yuan, with 13 out of the last 20 trading days showing net inflows totaling 1,672.24 million yuan [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Dongguan Securities anticipates stable overall performance for the banking sector in 2024, with limited disturbances from external uncertainties [2] - The banking sector is favored by risk-averse funds due to its stable dividends, low valuations, and high dividend yield characteristics [2] - Policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, expansion of domestic demand, and fiscal injections are expected to support the banking sector [2] - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF closely tracks the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, which selects 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend yields from state-owned enterprises [2]

Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a key theme in the current economic landscape [1] Research Insights Machinery Equipment - XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ) reported a total revenue of CNY 91.66 billion in 2024, a decrease of 1.28% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 12.2% to CNY 5.976 billion. In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 10.92% to CNY 26.815 billion, and net profit rose by 26.37% to CNY 2.022 billion, with a net profit margin of 7.6% [6] Construction Decoration - China Railway (601390.SH) faced a 19% decline in net profit in Q1 2025, attributed to pressure in traditional infrastructure sectors, although overseas orders showed strong growth. The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is CNY 28.1 billion, CNY 28.3 billion, and CNY 28.9 billion, respectively [7] Steel - Hunan Steel (000932.SZ) saw a significant improvement in Q1 2025, with net profit increasing by 43.55% to CNY 562 million. The overall profitability of the steel industry is recovering, with a gross profit margin expected to improve [8] Automotive - Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. (002126.SZ) reported a revenue of CNY 3.4 billion in Q1 2025, a 15% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 11% to CNY 210 million. The company is well-positioned for growth in the automotive sector [11] Home Appliances - Haier Smart Home (600690.SH) achieved a revenue of CNY 79.118 billion in Q1 2025, a 10.06% increase, with net profit rising by 15.09% to CNY 5.487 billion. The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory [14] Food and Beverage - Hengshun Vinegar (600305.SH) reported a revenue of CNY 626 million in Q1 2025, a 35.97% increase, with net profit rising by 2.36% to CNY 57 million. The company is focused on strengthening its core business and expanding into new markets [15] Construction Materials - Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ) faced challenges in Q1 2025, with a decline in performance due to reduced demand in new construction areas. The company is optimizing its distribution channels [22] Power - Zhejiang Energy Power (600023.SH) reported stable performance in Q1 2025, with revenue projected to be CNY 87.698 billion in 2025, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year. Net profit is expected to be CNY 6.25 billion [20] Textile and Apparel - Jian Sheng Group (603558.SH) reported a 2% increase in revenue in Q1 2025, but net profit decreased by 27%. The company is adjusting its production capacity to match orders [29] Coal - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) reported a revenue of CNY 90.26 billion in Q1 2025, a decrease of 14.46%, with net profit down by 28.33% to CNY 6.81 billion. The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [43]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the inbound economy may boost China's GDP by approximately 0.2 percentage points in 2025, driven by policy changes aimed at optimizing the outbound tax refund system and increasing inbound consumption [5][6][7] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various industries and companies, indicating a mixed performance across sectors, with some companies showing strong growth while others face challenges [3][4] Industry Overview - **Chemical Industry**: Huafeng Chemical (002064.SZ) reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with revenue of 6.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.15%, and a net profit of 504 million yuan, down 26.21% year-on-year, but a significant increase of 145.60% quarter-on-quarter [28][29] - **Coal Mining**: Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) faced a decline in both volume and price, leading to a projected annual revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.1% year-on-year [32][33] - **Textiles and Apparel**: Mousse Co., Ltd. (001323.SZ) reported a Q1 revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with expectations for recovery following government subsidies [54][55] - **Home Appliances**: Dechang Co., Ltd. (605555.SH) achieved a Q1 revenue of 1 billion yuan, up 21.33% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Southeast Asia [40][41] Company-Specific Insights - **Huafeng Chemical**: The company is consolidating its position in the polyurethane industry through vertical mergers and acquisitions, maintaining a "buy" rating with projected net profits of 2.474 billion, 3.110 billion, and 3.822 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [28][30] - **Lu'an Environmental Energy**: The company is expected to see a rebound in coal prices, with a focus on capacity growth and price elasticity, maintaining a "buy" rating despite recent performance challenges [32][34] - **Mousse Co., Ltd.**: The company is enhancing its multi-channel and multi-category market layout, with a projected net profit of 799 million, 872 million, and 956 million yuan for 2025-2027 [54][55] - **Dechang Co., Ltd.**: The company is expanding its overseas production capacity and expects significant growth in its automotive motor segment, maintaining a "buy" rating [40][41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was under pressure due to a decline in both volume and price, with a focus on growth potential and the elasticity of blowing coal [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of 35.85 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.1% year-on-year [3][4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.96 billion, 3.27 billion, and 3.67 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.9%, 10.3%, and 12.3% [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's coal production was 51.85 million tons, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, while sales volume was 52.25 million tons, down 5% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 645.6 yuan per ton, a decrease of 11.3% year-on-year, while the cost per ton increased by 12.4% to 390.8 yuan [4] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 36.9%, down from 47.7% in 2023 [6] Capacity and Growth Potential - The company has ongoing projects that are expected to contribute to capacity growth, including four under-construction mines with a total capacity of 3 million tons per year [5] - The company successfully acquired coal exploration rights in Shanxi province, which is expected to add significant resources in the future [5] Dividend Policy - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend ratio of 50.07% for 2025, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.7% based on the closing price on April 28, 2025 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that insurance capital is actively entering the market, with New China Life Insurance planning to invest up to 10 billion yuan in a private fund initiated by Guofeng Xinghua [1][3][4] - The private fund, tentatively named "Honghu Zhiyuan Phase II," has a total scale of 20 billion yuan, with both New China Life and China Life Insurance each contributing 10 billion yuan [3][4] - The investment strategy of the fund focuses on long-term investment, aiming for stable dividend income and capital appreciation through low-frequency trading and long-term holding [3][4] Group 2 - The fund will invest in large listed companies that are part of the CSI A500 index, specifically targeting A+H shares that meet certain criteria [3][4] - New China Life's investment aligns with national policies promoting long-term capital market participation and reflects the company's strategic direction towards long-term, value, and prudent investments [4] - The Honghu Fund, a previous initiative by New China Life and China Life, has successfully invested 50 billion yuan and achieved performance exceeding benchmarks, indicating a positive trend in insurance capital investments [4] Group 3 - The Honghu Fund has increased its holdings in Shaanxi Coal and maintained its position in China Telecom, becoming a significant shareholder in both companies [5][6] - As of the first quarter of 2025, the Honghu Fund held 116.34 million shares of Shaanxi Coal, with a market value of 2.30 billion yuan, despite a decline in stock price [5] - The fund also holds 76.17 million shares of China Telecom, with a market value of 5.98 billion yuan, reflecting a stable investment strategy amidst market fluctuations [6]

Group 1 - The company Huabei Mining (600985) reported a revenue of 10.567 billion yuan for the first quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 39.00% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 0.692 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 56.50% [1]