Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 13, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On May 12, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 rebounded after hitting a bottom, with a closing price of 1,318 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.15%, and an increase in positions of 11,751 lots. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in Central China remained unchanged from the previous day. Soda ash production continued to rise, and demand increased. However, the supply side is at a high level year-on-year, and the downward pressure on prices is becoming more significant. New production capacity will be put into operation, further increasing supply pressure [8]. - The supply side of the glass market is showing a contraction trend, but it is difficult to form a large-scale cold repair wave in the short term. The peak demand season fell short of expectations, and with the approaching of the traditional off-season, market sentiment is pessimistic. The combination of复产 expectations and high inventory is suppressing futures prices. In the short term, the glass market lacks effective driving factors, and prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Trading Data on May 12**: The SA505 contract opened at 1,276 yuan/ton, closed at 1,291 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.69%, with a position of 0.31 million lots, a decrease of 796 lots. The SA509 contract opened at 1,299 yuan/ton, closed at 1,318 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 123.31 million lots, an increase of 11,751 lots. The FG505 contract opened at 1,044 yuan/ton, closed at 1,047 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.67%, with a position of 0.53 million lots, a decrease of 822 lots. The FG509 contract opened at 1,034 yuan/ton, closed at 1,045 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.28%, with a position of 133.57 million lots, a decrease of 2,299 lots [7]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The weekly production of soda ash in China reached 757,000 tons in the week of May 8, near the highest level this year, and the weekly operating load rate remained at 90%. As of May 8, the weekly enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash in China remained at 880,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The supply side is at a high level year-on-year, and the downward pressure on prices is significant. Although some production line maintenance plans may have an impact on the supply rhythm in May, it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the oversupply situation [8]. - **Glass Market**: The supply side is showing a contraction trend, but it is difficult to form a large-scale cold repair wave in the short term due to cost and capacity limitations. The peak demand season fell short of expectations, and with the approaching of the traditional off-season, market sentiment is pessimistic. The combination of复产 expectations and high inventory is suppressing futures prices. In the short term, the glass market lacks effective driving factors, and prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Industry News - The market price of baking soda in Henan is stable. Jinshan's baking soda plant is under maintenance, and downstream users maintain a rigid procurement rhythm. The mainstream ex-factory price of food-grade baking soda is estimated at 1,200 - 1,260 yuan/ton [10]. - In May 2025, the weighted order days of domestic soda ash manufacturers' sample enterprises were 14.6 days, basically flat month-on-month. The operating load of the soda ash industry decreased in May, and the supply of goods decreased, but downstream demand was weak, and the enthusiasm for purchasing was not high, so new orders from soda ash manufacturers were average [10]. - Based on the period from 10:00 to 14:00 on the day, the average market price of 5mm large float glass in Shahe decreased by 0.21 yuan/square meter compared with the previous working day, with an average price of 14.77 yuan/square meter; the average price of 4.4mm small float glass decreased by 0.32 yuan/square meter, with an average price of 12.69 yuan/square meter. The Shahe float glass market continued to weaken over the weekend, and the futures price remained sluggish, with the market price center further moving down. Some spot-futures traders' shipments improved. The market basically stabilized today, and traders' selling prices were flexible [10]. - In April, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.619 million and 2.59 million units respectively, down 12.9% and 11.2% month-on-month, and up 8.9% and 9.8% year-on-year. Domestic automobile sales were 2.073 million units, down 13.9% month-on-month and up 11.7% year-on-year; automobile exports were 517,000 units, up 2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. In April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.251 million and 1.226 million units respectively, up 43.8% and 44.2% year-on-year, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.3% of the total sales of new vehicles [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [14][17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The central bank has implemented a stimulus policy, creating 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care refinancing, encouraging financial institutions to increase support for key sectors such as accommodation, dining, entertainment, and education. The overall direction of recovery in the real estate chain remains unchanged, with expectations for a significant acceleration in the home improvement industry by Q3 2025 due to the promotion of trade-in subsidies and service consumption stimulus policies [2][3] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the construction materials sector, particularly for undervalued consumer leaders and expansion-oriented companies such as Beixin Building Materials, Sankeshu, and Oppein Home [2][3] - The report also notes that if external demand declines rapidly, infrastructure projects in central and western China may become a critical support area, with companies like Huaxin Cement and Sichuan Road and Bridge being of interest [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The construction materials sector has shown a 2.55% increase in the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices [5] - The cement market has seen a 1.2% decrease in prices nationwide, with average shipment rates at 48%, down approximately 1.5 percentage points [3][20] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals 2.1 Cement - National average cement prices are reported at 383.0 yuan/ton, down 4.7 yuan from the previous week but up 27.0 yuan year-on-year [21][22] - The average inventory level for cement companies is at 62.5%, with a slight increase from the previous week [29] 2.2 Glass Fiber - The profitability of the glass fiber industry is expected to improve as demand in wind power and thermoplastics continues to grow, with leading companies likely to gain excess profits due to their product structure advantages [12] - The report recommends companies like China Jushi and suggests attention to other leading firms in the sector [12] 2.3 Glass - The glass industry is currently facing weak demand, with inventory levels fluctuating at high levels. The report suggests monitoring production line adjustments to gauge future price movements [13][14] 3. Renovation Materials - The report emphasizes the positive impact of government policies on home improvement consumption, with expectations for continued demand growth in 2025 due to trade-in policies and consumer confidence recovery [15] - Recommended companies in this segment include Beixin Building Materials and Oppein Home, which are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation has improved with the Sino - US talks making progress and the NDRC improving the long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and planning to launch high - quality projects worth about 3 trillion yuan. For glass, on the supply side, the profit of glass made from natural gas, coal, and oil has slightly increased due to falling raw material costs, and production remains stable. On the demand side, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and enterprise inventories have increased. The futures price is approaching the production cost, so cost support may work in the short term. For纯碱, the supply is decreasing slightly with some equipment maintenance, and downstream demand is lukewarm with more wait - and - see sentiment and small - scale destocking. It is recommended to temporarily observe both the 2509 contracts of纯碱 and glass [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the 纯碱 main contract is 1318 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 1045 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The 纯碱 main contract's open interest is 1233186 lots, up 11751 lots; the glass main contract's open interest is 1335775 lots, down 2299 lots. The net position of the top 20 in 纯碱 is - 197814, up 1356; the net position of the top 20 in glass is - 146540, up 43116. The 纯碱 exchange warehouse receipts are 3106 tons, down 237 tons; the glass exchange warehouse receipts are 2380 tons, up 115 tons. The 9 - 1 spread of 纯碱 is 13 yuan, up 14 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of glass is - 41 yuan, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of North China heavy 纯碱 is 1325 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price of Central China heavy 纯碱 is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of East China light 纯碱 is 1400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China light 纯碱 is 1335 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1116 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the price of Central China glass sheets is 1170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 纯碱 basis is 7 yuan, up 2 yuan; the glass basis is 71 yuan, down 19 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The 纯碱 plant operating rate is 87.74%, down 0.93 percentage points; the float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.24%, down 0.61 percentage points. The in - production capacity of glass is 15.52 million tons/year, down 0.26 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines is 222, down 3. The 纯碱 enterprise inventory is 170.07 million tons, down 0.06 million tons; the glass enterprise inventory is 67560000 weight boxes, up 2571000 weight boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new real - estate construction area is 129964600 square meters, up 63824600 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate completion area is 130602700 square meters, up 42962700 square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - The central bank broadens the use scope of re - loans for affordable housing. There are housing purchase subsidies in Shanghai Yangpu, housing development plans in Beijing, and support for housing provident fund loans in Beijing. In April, the second - hand housing transactions in Dongguan increased by 36% year - on - year. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a meeting to support the development of the private economy. The average rent of 50 cities in April decreased slightly month - on - month. In April, the contracted sales amount of China Merchants Shekou was 14.764 billion yuan. In April, about 71.7 billion yuan of the newly issued 176.3 billion yuan special bonds were invested in the real - estate related fields. From January to April, the total transaction amount of the national foreclosed housing market was 83.14 billion yuan. Shanghai released the list of the fifth batch of residential land to be transferred this year. In April, the contract sales amount of Jianye Real Estate was 600 million yuan, down 20.2% year - on - year. As of April 30, 2025, the contract sales amount of Shimao Group in four months was about 9.07 billion yuan. In April, the contracted area of Shoukai Co., Ltd. was 108400 square meters, down 24.92% month - on - month [2]

证券研究报告 建筑材料 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 12 日 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 朱芸 SAC：S1350524070001 zhuyun@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 房地产政策表述聚焦久期，顺周期依然为盾 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 内容目录 | 1. 板块跟踪 | | --- | | 1.1. 板块跟踪 | | 1.2. 行业动态 | | 2. 数据跟踪. | | 2.1. 水泥：仍然跌多涨少，下周或将延续跌势 . | | 2.2. 浮法玻璃：价格跌多涨少，交投不温不火. | | 2.3. 光伏玻璃：交投欠佳，库存缓增…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the construction materials industry, particularly focusing on cement and glass products, amidst recent monetary policy changes by the central bank [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Monetary Policy Impact**: The central bank announced a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% decrease in policy interest rates, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [3]. - **Cement Market Performance**: As of May 9, the national cement shipment rates were reported at 48%, with regional rates in East and South China at 52% and 54% respectively, showing a month-on-month decline of 1.5%, 0.9%, and 7.2 percentage points [1]. - **Price Trends**: The average price of cement decreased by 4.5 yuan per ton to 387 yuan per ton, marking a 15 yuan drop since early April [1]. - **Glass Market Update**: The average price of float glass was reported at 1318 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan from the previous week, with inventory levels at 58.17 million heavy boxes, an increase of 3.4% [1]. - **Fiber Market**: The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn in East China was 3650 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from before the May Day holiday [1]. Investment Opportunities - **Excess Return Potential**: Historical data suggests that the construction materials sector has a high probability of achieving excess returns compared to the CSI 300 index when the real estate market shows signs of stability and improvement [3][4]. - **Real Estate Market Indicators**: As of April 28, the second-hand housing price index for first and second-tier cities was 196.84 and 145.02 respectively, indicating a stabilization trend. Notably, the investment amount from 30 monitored real estate companies reached 87.6 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of nearly 100% [3]. Recommended Investment Lines - **Main Line One**: Focus on large-scale construction materials with improving supply-demand dynamics, emphasizing price elasticity and high dividend yields [5]. - **Main Line Two**: Favorable outlook on leading consumer building material companies with long-term growth potential, highlighting performance elasticity in high-demand consumer segments [7]. - **Main Line Three**: Interest in companies transitioning or expanding into high-growth sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and robotics [7]. Recommended Companies - **Cement Companies**: Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, China Jushi, TPI Cement, Shangfeng Cement, Changhai Co. [6]. - **Consumer Building Materials**: Sankeshu, Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Tubao, with a focus on Jianlang Hardware, Qinglong Pipeline, and Longquan Co. [7]. - **High-Growth Companies**: Quartz Co., Planet Graphite, with attention to Zhongqi New Materials [8]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include demand falling short of expectations, gross margins not meeting forecasts, and delays in receivables [8].

Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive outlook on Chinese companies deeply engaged in Africa, suggesting potential revaluation opportunities for these firms [13]. Core Insights - Africa is emerging as a popular region for overseas expansion, with significant growth potential in East African countries such as Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, and Zambia, which are expected to see GDP growth rates of 5.44%, 4.51%, 8.89%, and 4.04% respectively in 2024 [13][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of local integration and operational capabilities for companies looking to expand in Africa, distinguishing between "going abroad" and "exporting" [13]. - The approval of Han Gao Group's IPO is noted, with projected revenue growth of 17.04% to 26.77% for the first half of 2025, indicating a strong market position in the home hardware and outdoor furniture sector [14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - East Africa is gaining attention for its economic stability and growth potential, with several Chinese companies actively establishing operations in the region [13]. - Key sectors for investment include infrastructure, building materials, mining, and consumer goods, with specific examples of companies like Keda Manufacturing and China National Materials [13]. Cyclical Linkage - The report provides insights into the construction materials market, noting a 27 CNY/t year-on-year increase in cement prices, while glass prices have seen a slight decline [15]. - It suggests a cautious outlook for the steel market due to weak demand compared to the previous year [15]. National Subsidy Tracking - The Chinese government has allocated 810 billion CNY in special bonds to support consumer goods, with local subsidy programs being implemented to stimulate demand in home renovation and construction materials [16]. Important Changes - Notable management share purchases were reported for Huaxin Cement, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [17]. - North New Building Materials announced a stock incentive plan, reflecting strategic growth initiatives [17].

过去四个交易日（0506-0509 ）沪深 300 涨 2.00% ，建材（中信）涨 2.83%，其他专用材料、其他结构材料等子行业涨幅居前。个股中，金刚光 伏（+31.1% ），豪美新材（+19.3% ），北京利尔（+17.4% ），四通股份 （+16.3%），华立股份（+14.0%），涨幅居前。上周我们重点推荐组合的表 现：中材科技（+5.8%）、 三棵树(-1.5%)、西部水泥（-5.1%）、华新水泥 （+1.2%）、华润建材科技（+0.6%）、高争民爆(+2.4%)。 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑材料 证券研究报告 政策协同发力，基本面有望逐步恢复，关注民爆机会 行情回顾 中材科技、高争民爆、三棵树、西部水泥、华新水泥、华润建材科技 政策协同发力，基本面有望逐步恢复，关注民爆机会 据 Wind，0503-0509 一周，30 个大中城市商品房销售面积 137.28 万平 米，同比+13.95%。上周国新办举行新闻发布会，会上一行两局宣布降准、 降息及稳楼市等措施，其中包括降准 0.5 个百分点、下调政策利率 0.1 个 百分点及降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点等。此前我们在周报 中曾 ...

宏观层面，央行宣布实施降准降息及下调公积金利率三大举措，但对需求端实际提振有限，玻璃行业仍 面对过剩压力。供应端继续收缩，本周开工率75.24%，环比减少0.22%，产能利用率78.02%，环比减少 0.41个百分点，周产量也回落至109.19万吨，为2个月最低。需求端起色缓慢，加工厂倾向于轻仓运行， 中游较大库存的压制下，一定程度上使得短期反弹被压制。本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存环增近 4%或257.1万重箱至6756重箱，同比增加10.38%。总之，供应端压力缓慢减弱，但需求端起色缓慢，对 行业运行仍存负反馈，意味着玻璃在未来将继续面临过剩的压力，市场预期偏悲观。关注全球市场风险 偏好、下游产销情况。【策略推荐】:FG关注【1040，1070】，5日均线承压。 机构 核心观点 中辉期货 玻璃市场预期偏悲观 新世纪期货 玻璃基本面缺乏推涨动力 5月9日盘中，玻璃期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至1042.00元。截止发稿，玻璃主力合约报1045.00 元，跌幅0.95%。 玻璃期货主力跌近1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 中辉期货：玻璃市场预期偏悲观 新世纪期货：玻璃基本面缺乏推涨动力 近期部分 ...

Core Insights - In the first quarter, Zibo's total foreign trade import and export value reached 25.62 billion yuan, with exports valued at 15.77 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [1] Trade Composition - General trade accounted for 83.6% of Zibo's foreign trade, with a total value of 21.42 billion yuan. Processing trade and bonded logistics saw imports and exports of 2.41 billion yuan and 1.79 billion yuan, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 15.1% and 6.4% [1] Market Diversification - ASEAN emerged as Zibo's largest trading market, with a total trade value of 4.88 billion yuan, representing 19% of the city's foreign trade. Trade with the EU and the US reached 2.68 billion yuan and 2.49 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 7.6% and 15.9%. Additionally, trade with emerging markets in Latin America and Africa amounted to 2.83 billion yuan and 1.65 billion yuan, with growth rates of 28.7% and 120% respectively [1] Export Growth by Product - Exports of electromechanical products totaled 2.9 billion yuan, up 6.3%, constituting 18.4% of Zibo's total exports. Other notable export growth included glass products at 1.4 billion yuan (7% increase), medicinal materials and pharmaceuticals at 950 million yuan (25.2% increase), and paper products at 740 million yuan (64.4% increase) [1] Import Growth - Zibo's imports included crude oil valued at 4.22 billion yuan, making up 42.9% of total imports. Other significant imports were pulp at 1.3 billion yuan, coal at 700 million yuan, and aluminum ore at 560 million yuan, with growth rates of 58.6%, 23%, and 4.7 times respectively [2] Enterprise Contribution - Private enterprises contributed 20.85 billion yuan to the total foreign trade, accounting for 81.4%. Foreign enterprises had an import and export value of 3.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, while state-owned enterprises contributed 1.47 billion yuan [1]

Report Information - Date: May 8, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and the impact of macro - economic and industry news [2][4]. Commodity Summaries Precious Metals - **Gold**: Slight progress in Sino - US negotiations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The prices of different gold contracts showed various changes, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings [5][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Silver prices also showed fluctuations in different contracts [5][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories limit price declines. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. There are supply - demand changes in the copper market, and some companies' production has increased [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production [14][15]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Zinc prices and inventory data have changed [16][17]. - **Lead**: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19][20]. - **Nickel**: The price range has narrowed, and nickel prices have returned to narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Some Indonesian nickel projects' production capacity utilization is increasing [22][24]. - **Tin**: Prices weakened during the holiday. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [25][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Weak demand, with a weak performance in the futures market. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Panasonic is exiting the solar and energy storage business, affecting the industry [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price hit a new low since listing. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [30][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory build - up pattern restricts price rebounds. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies [36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Poor demand expectations, with prices fluctuating at low levels. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][41][44]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by macro factors, prices are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and coking coal is affected by the sentiment of coal terminal desilting, also showing a weak trend. The trend strength of both is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [49][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Affected by the sentiment of forced desilting at ports, prices are oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [53][55]. Other Commodities - **Glass**: The price of glass original sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [56][57][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Positive spread arbitrage between months, with expanding processing margins. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply disruptions and trade negotiations affect the price [60][63][65]. - **PTA**: Long PTA and short SC. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The supply - demand pattern is changing, with some device maintenance [60][64][66]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory [60][66][67]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Vietnam's rubber export situation is changing, and the new supply is expected to increase gradually [68][70][72].