证券代码：601118 证券简称：海南橡胶 公告编号：2025-047 海南天然橡胶产业集团股份有限公司 2025年度第一期中期票据发行结果的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 海南天然橡胶产业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于2024年12月30日、2025年1月22日召开 了第六届董事会第四十一次会议以及2025年第一次临时股东大会，审议通过了《关于申请注册发行境内 债务融资工具的议案》，同意公司在银行间市场申请注册发行债务融资工具。公司于2025年7月收到中 国银行间市场交易商协会《接受注册通知书》（中市协注〔2025〕MTN611号），中国银行间市场交易 商协会接受公司中期票据注册，注册金额为15亿元，注册额度自《接受注册通知书》落款之日起2年内 有效，公司在注册有效期内可分期发行中期票据。具体内容详见公司2024年12月31日、2025年1月23 日、2025年7月15日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的相关公告。 公司已于近日完成了2025年度第一期中期票据的发行， ...

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Rubber has completed the issuance of the first phase of medium-term notes for the year 2025 [2] Group 1 - The company announced the completion of the issuance recently [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ★☆★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides operation suggestions such as temporary observation or intraday trading based on their respective market conditions [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton dropped significantly, funds shifted to far - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread continued to decline. Spinning mills' point - price improved. As of July 15, cotton commercial inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. In June 2025, cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a new low in nearly 20 years. From January to June 2025, cumulative imports were 460,000 tons, a 74.3% year - on - year decrease. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with downstream rigid - demand procurement. Macroscopically, attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the main producing areas was slow this year, with a significant year - on - year decline in sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production. In July, rainfall in the main producing areas decreased. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the European Meteorological Center's medium - term forecast predicted a possible decrease in later rainfall, increasing the uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season. Overall, the US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It's expected that sugar prices will remain volatile in the short term, and operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price corrected. For early - maturing apples, bagged Qinyang apples were sporadically on the market with high opening prices. Affected by high - temperature weather, early - maturing apples had poor coloration and some quality problems. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a 44.57% year - on - year decrease. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 86,000 tons, a 20.66% year - on - year decline. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. In the western producing areas, although affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the low - temperature impact on production was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in production estimates. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated weakly, NR and BR continued to decline, and the rubber market sentiment was weak. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, the synthetic rubber spot price decreased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price generally declined. Globally, natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period, and there is more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, and some plants had restart or load - reduction plans. In August, several petrochemical plants plan to conduct centralized maintenance, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate increased. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate decreased slightly, the semi - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, terminal market demand was average, and tire finished - product inventory continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 640,400 tons, the bonded - area inventory decreased while the general - trade inventory increased. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 12,800 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory continued to decline to 15,700 tons. Overall, demand is weakening, supply is increasing, rubber inventory is rising, trade negotiations are going smoothly, there are potential policy benefits, and the hype sentiment has cooled down. Strategically, it's advisable to wait and see for RU and NR, and BR has support [6] Pulp - Today, pulp dropped slightly. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,450 yuan/ton; the price of eucalyptus pulp Jinyu was 4,150 yuan/ton. On July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.143 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% month - on - month decline. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, pulp demand is still weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and demand is in the traditional off - season. With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, the pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the price may return to low - level fluctuations. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated at a high level. In terms of supply, the shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level. As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 cubic meters, a 2.72% increase. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume fluctuated around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation was good. As of July 25, the total national port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 cubic meters. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. As the peak season is approaching, logs will gradually destock, the short - term spot price will rebound, and it's expected that the futures price will continue to rise. Operationally, it's advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has shown a slight accumulation trend recently, with the bonded area maintaining de - stocking and the general trade warehouse showing inventory accumulation. Overseas goods arriving at the port and entering the warehouse remain relatively low, but the overall outbound volume is less than expected due to terminal wait - and - see attitude. In terms of demand, the production recovery of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, near the end of the month, the overall shipment performance of enterprises was less than expected, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and due to insufficient overall orders, some enterprises may have short - term overhaul plans from the end of July to early August. The short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,500, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [2] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was 15,010 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber was 12,670 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai Rubber was - 785 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - numbered rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spread between Shanghai Rubber and 20 - numbered rubber was 2,340 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber decreased by 10,456 lots to 108,879 lots, and that of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber decreased by 3,308 lots to 51,979 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Rubber was - 27,577, an increase of 848; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber was - 10,611, an increase of 732. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Rubber decreased by 100 tons to 181,920 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber increased by 1,209 tons to 38,808 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai Standard STR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's Styrene - Butadiene Rubber 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's Butadiene Rubber BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The basis of Shanghai Rubber was - 110 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was - 365 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,971 yuan/ton, down 384 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber was 301 yuan/ton, down 244 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 63.11 Thai baht/kg, down 0.44 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 55.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 50 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 140.8 US dollars/ton, down 33.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.02%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.87%, down 0.12 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 40.95 days, up 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 46.55 days, up 0.37 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.61%, up 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.59%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 39%, up 1.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 38.99%, up 1.11 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 27th to August 2nd, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas such as southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which had less impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little impact on rubber tapping. As of July 27th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in the bonded and general trade areas in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points. As of July 24th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. The production of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises basically recovered, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [2]

Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025-07-29 [1] Report's Core View - Recently, the support from cost and supply side has loosened, and the trading center of butadiene rubber has been under pressure. After the restart of Yanshan Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin this week, the increase in domestic supply is gradually emerging, and the pressure on spot sales has increased. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises will tend to increase. In terms of demand, the resumption of production of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. As the end of the month approaches, the overall sales performance of enterprises falls short of expectations, the finished product inventory increases slightly, and the overall order performance is insufficient. Some enterprises may have short-term overhaul plans from the end of July to the beginning of August, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline in the short term. The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,650 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 41,136 lots, a decrease of 3,967 lots. The price difference between synthetic rubber 9 - 10 is 30 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 2,290 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 12,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 12,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 12,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 65 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 70.04 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.6 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 66.71 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.55 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,100 US dollars/ton, and the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 578.5 US dollars/ton. The capacity of butadiene this week is 14.77 million tons/week, the capacity utilization rate is 70%, an increase of 2.04 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.16%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The production of butadiene rubber this month is 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons; the capacity utilization rate this week is 67.63%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points; the production profit this week is -440 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 32,300 tons, unchanged; the manufacturer's inventory is 24,850 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; the trader's inventory is 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons. The operating rate of domestic semi-steel tires is 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires is 65.02%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The production of all-steel tires this month is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the production of semi-steel tires this month is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all-steel tires in Shandong are 40.95 days, an increase of 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi-steel tires in Shandong are 46.55 days, an increase of 0.37 days [2] Industry News - As of July 23, the inventory of high-cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a slight increase from the previous period, with a month-on-month increase of 0.22%. As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises in China was 70.06%, a month-on-month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises in China was 62.23%, a month-on-month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.98 percentage points. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.86% [2] Key Points to Focus On - There is no news today [2]

Market Overview - On July 29, the rubber sector increased by 0.05% compared to the previous trading day, with Zhongyu Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3609.71, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11289.41, up 0.64% [1] Stock Performance - Zhongyu Technology (871694) closed at 21.71, up 3.83% with a trading volume of 30,500 shares and a turnover of 64.55 million yuan [1] - Litong Technology (832225) closed at 21.07, up 2.48% with a trading volume of 35,600 shares and a turnover of 73.97 million yuan [1] - Kexin Innovation Source (300731) closed at 29.66, up 2.10% with a trading volume of 59,600 shares and a turnover of 173 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Yangnian Agricultural Committee (300121) with a closing price of 15.20, up 1.74%, and Nongan Technology (300767) with a closing price of 13.64, up 0.81% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The rubber sector experienced a net outflow of 68.40 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 20.03 million yuan [2] - The main funds' net inflow and outflow for specific stocks include: - Lian Ke Technology (001207) with a net inflow of 10.69 million yuan from main funds [3] - Yanggu Huatai (300121) with a net inflow of 7.84 million yuan from main funds [3] - Sanwei Shares (603033) with a net inflow of 7.81 million yuan from main funds [3] - Conversely, stocks like Longxing Technology (002442) and Yuanchuang New Materials (301300) saw net outflows from main funds of 1.28 million yuan and 2.19 million yuan, respectively [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits, and making left - hand bets on the September Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - related supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [3]. - Methanol is affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment and may face price correction pressure. The upstream supply pressure is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices [5]. - Urea's price is affected by sentiment. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is advisable to pay attention to long positions at low prices [7]. - For rubber, due to the peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia, the supply concern sentiment may decline. The price has a large correction. It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term and consider a long - short band operation for different contracts [9][11]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. Although it is strong in the short - term, there is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term as the BZN spread is expected to be repaired [13]. - The price of polyethylene may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - The price of polypropylene is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. - PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. - The fundamental situation of ethylene glycol is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.91, or 2.94%, to $66.98; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.01, or 2.94%, to $70.4; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.40 yuan, or 0.45%, to 527 yuan [2]. - **Data**: In China, weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.96 million barrels to 91.93 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 102.07 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.26 million barrels to 194.00 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 115 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 91 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 [5]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment, the price may decline. The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 1738 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [7]. - **Analysis**: Affected by sentiment, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU had a large correction [9]. - **Analysis**: The peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. The price has a large decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 224 yuan to 5149 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5100 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 164) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 128 (- 15) yuan/ton [11]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is expected to be repaired, and the price is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 172 yuan to 6890 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 23 dollars to 851 dollars [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 124 yuan to 4812 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 95 yuan to 4800 yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: It may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 109 yuan to 4436 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 83 yuan to 4499 yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber sector continued to strengthen with the macro - environment this week, showing a pattern of widespread simultaneous rises and falls among commodities. The volatility of the rubber sector reached a 5 - year high under the dual drive of the macro - environment and events. Attention can be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility. The market may return to the fundamentals of limited improvement after the macro - sentiment fades [3][5]. - The supply of synthetic rubber has become slightly looser, with a slight increase in the production of butadiene rubber and a slight decrease in the production of semi - steel tires [4]. - Some macro data, such as the CSI 1000 Index and the Citi G10 Economic Surprise Index, are favorable for the unilateral trend of RU, while the supply data of natural rubber shows that only the price of smoked sheet rubber has slightly stabilized and rebounded, and the fundamentals for a recovery are not solid [5]. - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has affected the market, but the market mainly followed the macro - strengthening logic after a short - term reaction to the potential supply tightening. If the domestic macro - drive weakens next week and the conflict escalates, it may become the main contradiction again [5]. - The mixed basis is bearish and has not been affected by the macro - warming. The supply of natural and synthetic rubber has certain changes, which has an impact on the trend of RU [27][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - related Data - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6476 points, reaching a new high since January 2016. The average value in the past 6 months increased by +19.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for 12 consecutive months, which is favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [5][18]. - The Citi G10 Economic Surprise Index reported +12.4 points, with the average value in the past 6 months increasing by +6.6 points year - on - year, and the increase expanding for 2 consecutive months, which is also favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [5][18]. 3.2 Impact of the Thailand - Cambodia Border Conflict - Four Thai provinces affected by the conflict account for about 7% of Thailand's total rubber production. In 2024, the total rubber production of these four provinces was 34.1 tons, accounting for 7.1% of Thailand's total production of 478.9 tons. Cambodia's total production in 2024 was 40.7 tons [20][22]. - The RU - NR spread is a good indicator to reflect the impact of the Thailand - Cambodia border conflict. Currently, NR is relatively weak compared to RU, but the conflict is expected to suppress the supply of 20 - grade rubber and make NR relatively stronger. The spread started to move before the unilateral increase on July 24, confirming the supply logic in advance [25][26]. 3.3 Mixed Basis and Supply - demand Factors - In May, the total import volume of standard and mixed rubber from Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia decreased for 2 consecutive months, but the average import volume in the past 6 months increased by +10.1% year - on - year, with the marginal increase for 10 consecutive months, which is bearish for the mixed rubber [28]. - In June, the total import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China decreased for 3 consecutive months, reaching 60.0 tons. The production of synthetic rubber increased month - on - month, reaching 70.3 tons, and the production of natural rubber increased for 3 consecutive months in May, reaching 9.7 tons. The total of these is 140.0 tons, with the cumulative volume in the past 3 months increasing by +9.3% year - on - year, and the increase narrowing for 2 consecutive months, which is favorable for the unilateral trend of RU [37]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Supply - The capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene increased to 70.0%, with the average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increasing by +2.3% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber increased to 67.6%, with the average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increasing by +9.4% year - on - year, showing a marginal increase [49]. - The port inventory of domestic butadiene decreased for 2 consecutive weeks, reaching 1.57 tons, with the average inventory in the past 5 weeks increasing by +0.21 tons year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks. The total inventory of domestic butadiene rubber in traders and factories is 3.23 tons, with the average inventory in 5 weeks increasing by +0.90 tons year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 4 consecutive weeks [49]. 3.5 Tire Consumption - The production line operating rate of domestic all - steel tires decreased to 65.0%, with the average operating rate in the past 12 weeks increasing by +3.9% year - on - year, and the marginal increase for 9 consecutive weeks. The finished product inventory of all - steel tires remained unchanged at 41 days, with the average inventory in 24 weeks decreasing by - 2.7% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 53 consecutive weeks [60]. - The production line operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires decreased to 75.9%, with the average operating rate in the past 24 weeks increasing by +3.4% year - on - year, showing a marginal decrease. The product inventory of semi - steel tires increased by 1 day to 47 days, with the average inventory in the past 24 weeks increasing by +36.5% year - on - year, and the marginal decrease for 9 consecutive weeks [60]. 3.6 NR Month - spread - The daily average open interest of the NR contract is equivalent to 115.90 tons, the warehouse receipt volume is 3.48 tons, and the virtual - to - real ratio is 32.30 times. Since the virtual - to - real ratio lags behind the month - spread, it is expected that the decline in the open interest of the NR contract will be greater than the reduction in warehouse receipts in the later period [65]. - From a long - term perspective, the NR month - spread may strengthen until September, and there is a large expectation of weakening after that (the near - month contract weakens). Attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage when the month - spread weakens [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern due to profit - taking by long positions and a collective decline in the black - chain commodity futures on Monday [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend, affected by the sharp decline in domestic coal futures and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to remain in a volatile consolidation pattern, as the bearish impact of production increases has been digested, and it is currently the peak oil - consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons (0.28%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.39%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.13%. The inbound and outbound rates of both types of warehouses decreased [8]. - As of July 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a week - on - week increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. Production in some enterprises returned to normal, but overall shipments were flat, and inventory increased slightly [8]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%, accounting for 44.3% of total new vehicle sales [9]. Methanol - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.35%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 15.35%. The weekly average methanol output was 1.8989 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 158,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 376,500 tons [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE were 29.96% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%), 5.31% (unchanged), 92.95% (a week - on - week increase of 0.18%), and 57.16% (a week - on - week increase of 2.32%) respectively. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.15%. The futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 307 yuan/ton, a significant week - on - week decrease of 225 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 218 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 587,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 254,100 tons. The inventory in East China ports was 416,700 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 29,300 tons), and in South China ports was 170,400 tons (a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons) [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 55. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 102,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year decrease of 27,000 barrels/day [13]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 419 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 17.492 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.863 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 455,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402.5 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 200,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 95.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.9 percentage points [13]. - As of July 22, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 153,331 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 52,648 contracts compared to the June average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 227,245 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 11,576 contracts and a significant increase of 40,622 contracts compared to the June average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,350 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 15,065 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | +285 yuan/ton | +520 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,530 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | 2,404 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | +126 yuan/ton | +115 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 483.6 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 505.9 yuan/barrel | - 7.0 yuan/barrel | - 22.4 yuan/barrel | +7.3 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc. [17][19][21] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, etc. [29][31][33] - Crude Oil: Charts cover crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes, etc. [42][44][46]

Core Insights - The launch of synthetic rubber futures and options on July 28, 2023, at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has significantly enhanced the risk management tools available to the synthetic rubber industry, which is crucial for the national economy [1][2][3] - The trading performance of synthetic rubber futures has shown strong volatility, with notable price movements including two instances of price limits up and one price limit down within two years [1][5] - The correlation between the prices of synthetic rubber and its raw material, butadiene, has strengthened since the launch of the futures, indicating improved market pricing mechanisms [2][3] Significance of Listing - Synthetic rubber is a key synthetic material with extensive applications, and its industry faces high price risks due to various factors, including macroeconomic changes and raw material price fluctuations [2] - The introduction of synthetic rubber futures fills a gap in the derivatives market, providing better pricing mechanisms and enhancing the competitiveness of China's synthetic rubber industry [2][3] - The correlation coefficient between butadiene prices and synthetic rubber prices has increased from 0.62 to 0.89 since the launch of the futures, indicating a tighter price linkage [2] Market Performance - As of July 25, 2025, synthetic rubber futures have recorded a total trading volume of 63.05 million contracts and a total transaction value of 42.4 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 130,500 contracts [5][6] - The first year after the launch saw significant fluctuations in trading volume and open interest, while the second year stabilized within a range after a notable independent price rally [5][6] - The average daily trading volume of synthetic rubber futures has been competitive compared to other rubber futures, with a peak trading volume surpassing that of natural rubber [7] Price Structure and Basis Observations - The synthetic rubber futures market has predominantly exhibited a positive basis, attributed to sufficient delivery capacity and strong delivery willingness among producers when the basis turns negative [9] - The monthly structure of synthetic rubber futures often reflects a backwardation pattern, particularly during price surges, indicating a strong market response to supply and demand dynamics [9] Market Review - The synthetic rubber futures market has experienced significant price movements since its launch, with a notable price increase starting from August 21, 2023, driven by improved demand from the tire manufacturing sector [13][14] - The price of synthetic rubber futures reached a peak of 14,600 yuan per ton before experiencing a correction due to high inventory levels and weak fundamentals [13][14] Options Market Performance - The synthetic rubber options market has shown steady growth since its launch, with a total trading volume of 26.81 million contracts and an average daily trading volume of 55,600 contracts as of July 25, 2025 [26][27] - The trading volume of synthetic rubber options has outperformed that of natural rubber options, although the transaction value remains lower due to differences in contract sizes [27] - The distribution of open interest in synthetic rubber options is heavily skewed towards out-of-the-money options, reflecting lower costs for buyers and higher win rates for sellers [28]