Core Viewpoint - Pacific Shipping (02343) announced a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase 4 million shares for a total cost of HKD 9.842 million, scheduled for September 16, 2025 [1] Company Summary - The company is engaging in a share repurchase, which indicates a strategy to enhance shareholder value and potentially signal confidence in its financial health [1] - The total amount allocated for the buyback is HKD 9.842 million, reflecting the company's commitment to returning capital to shareholders [1] - The buyback involves 4 million shares, suggesting a significant move to reduce the number of shares outstanding, which could positively impact earnings per share in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the efficiency of temporary arbitration in resolving international shipping and trade disputes, showcasing a case that was resolved in just four weeks, significantly faster than traditional legal processes [1][2]. Group 1: Temporary Arbitration Process - The first temporary arbitration case under the revised "Shanghai International Commercial Maritime Temporary Arbitration Promotion Measures" was held in the North Bund International Legal Service Port [1]. - The case involved a dispute between a shipping company and a trading company regarding damage to goods during transport, which was resolved with the shipping company compensating the trading company [1]. - Traditional legal litigation takes at least 1.5 years, while institutional arbitration can take 4 to 8 months, making temporary arbitration a cost-effective and time-efficient alternative [2]. Group 2: Features and Benefits of Temporary Arbitration - Temporary arbitration is likened to "inviting experts to solve problems," making it particularly suitable for high-time-sensitive sectors like shipping and trade [2]. - Companies have the flexibility to negotiate all aspects of the arbitration process, including the selection of arbitrators and the rules applied, which can lead to a more tailored and efficient resolution [2]. - The North Bund Arbitration Service Center was established to provide shared arbitration facilities and support, enhancing the overall arbitration experience [2][3]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Future Developments - The North Bund area hosts over 4,700 shipping companies and more than 40 functional institutions, covering the entire shipping industry chain [3]. - The local government is working to integrate temporary arbitration with shipping insurance and logistics sectors, aiming to create more practical case studies [3]. - The initiative seeks to enhance the global competitiveness and influence of Chinese enterprises by facilitating efficient dispute resolution [3].

Market Overview and Key Insights - The Hong Kong stock market's dividend sector saw an increase last week, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Total Return Index rising by 4.14%, the Hang Seng Index by 4.04%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.34% [1] - Active foreign capital returned to the Hong Kong stock market, with a net inflow of HKD 60.8 billion from southbound funds last week [1] - The U.S. job market has shown signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, indicating economic cooling [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September and an overall expectation of three cuts within the year [1] Federal Reserve Impact on Hong Kong Stocks - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts may benefit the capital flow into Hong Kong stocks, as the market is sensitive to U.S. monetary policy changes due to its peg to the U.S. dollar [2] - Historically, the Hang Seng Index has shown a negative correlation with the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, suggesting that a rate cut could lead to increased investment in undervalued Hong Kong stocks [2] Dividend Strategy and Valuation - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index has a dividend yield of 6.25%, significantly higher than the 4.51% yield of the CSI Dividend Index, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.62 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.98 [2] - Since early 2021, the total return index has gained 141%, outperforming the Hang Seng Total Return Index by 126% [2] - The low interest rate environment and weak economic recovery in China are favorable for dividend strategies, with strong dividend capabilities from state-owned enterprises [2] ETF Overview - The Huaan Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (code: 513920) tracks the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index, focusing on high-dividend securities listed in Hong Kong with state-owned enterprise majority ownership [3] - This ETF is the first in the market to combine the attributes of Hong Kong stocks, state-owned enterprises, and dividends [3] ETF Performance - The Huaan Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF had a net asset value of 1.6275 billion and a trading volume of 10.27 billion last week [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include China Nonferrous Mining (4.7% weight, 16.1% weekly increase) and China Merchants Energy (3.7% weight, 13.2% weekly increase) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the European route is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The growth rate of demand on the European route is expected to slow down from the second half of 2025 due to factors such as weak European exports, inventory cycle changes, and a high trade base [2][13][14] - The over - supply pressure on the European route persists, although the new ship delivery rhythm has slowed down in the fourth quarter. Market competition is intensifying, and the spill - over of other routes' pressure may exacerbate the situation [3][41] - The freight rate on the European route may have a short - term rebound during the year - end peak season and long - term agreement signing season, but the possibility of continuous rebound is weak. There are investment opportunities in the 12 - contract under certain conditions [4][48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Slowdown in European Route Demand Growth - The growth momentum of US - EU trade has weakened in the short term due to a higher - than - expected tariff level in the trade agreement and the overdraft of forward demand caused by early restocking in the US [13] - The US may have entered the active destocking phase, and given the strong linkage of the inventory cycle between the US and Europe, the restocking momentum in Europe is weakening, which may suppress European import demand [13] - Despite the slowdown in demand growth, Asia - Europe trade will maintain a high base due to capacity substitution. The price gap between China and Europe is difficult to narrow quickly, and the trade deficit continues to expand [13][14] 3.2. Impact of the Delayed Spring Festival on the Peak - Season Cargo Volume Rhythm - Affected by the National Day holiday, the Asia - Europe trade demand in October is expected to decline significantly month - on - month. The demand is expected to gradually recover in November and enter the traditional peak season in December [29] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 will relieve the freight pressure during the peak season, and the monthly freight volume distribution from December to February next year will be more balanced [29] 3.3. Slower New Ship Delivery and Weaker Impact on the European Route - The pressure of capacity growth on the European route is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. The new ship delivery rhythm has slowed down, and the capacity growth rate of large - scale container ships has decreased [33] - The current European route capacity is relatively saturated. New ships to be delivered in the fourth quarter are likely to be used for other routes or replacement of existing ships, with limited additional capacity supply for the European route [33][35] 3.4. Persistent Excess Pressure and Vigilance against Marginal Disturbances - The supply ceiling on the European route has increased, and the capacity gap has narrowed, resulting in an oversupply situation. The upper - limit capacity is 8% - 13% higher than the critical value, suppressing the market [41] - The market structure on the European route has changed from oligopoly to oligopolistic competition, intensifying price - cutting competition among shipping companies [41] - The profit contraction of other routes may spread to the European route, exacerbating its existing excess pressure [44][45] 3.5. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - As of mid - September, the average price of large containers on the European route has fallen below the low point of the first half of the year. Ship companies may take suspension measures, but the actual scale of suspension is expected to be limited, and it is difficult for the freight rate to stabilize and rebound [48] - During the year - end peak season and long - term agreement signing season, the freight rate may have a short - term rebound, but the possibility of continuous rebound is weak. After the short - term rebound, the freight rate is expected to fall back to near the cost line [48] - The 10 - 12 contract spread exceeds 400 points, and the long - position allocation value of the 12 - contract above 1500 points is limited. If the spot price continues to fall, there may be an opportunity to go long on the 12 - contract at a low level [49] - It is recommended to view the 12 - 02 spread trend with an oscillatory mindset and pay attention to short - term positive arbitrage opportunities when the spread converges to par or discount [49]

Price Trends - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for Europe decreased to 1440.24 points, down 8.1% from the previous period[2] - Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for Europe fell to 729.42 points, down 14.78% from the previous period[2] - SCFIS for the US West Coast increased to 1349.84 points, up 37.7% from the previous period[2] - NCFI for the US West Coast dropped to 1216.14 points, down 9.13% from the previous period[2] Economic Indicators - Eurozone August Manufacturing PMI was 50.5, above the forecast of 49.5 and previous value of 49.8[2] - Eurozone August Services PMI initial value was 50.7, slightly below the forecast of 50.8[2] - US August Manufacturing PMI initial value reached 53.3, the highest in 39 months, exceeding the forecast of 49.5[2] Market Sentiment - Ongoing US-China trade negotiations show no substantial progress, leading to a slight decline in spot prices[3] - The main contract closed at 1163.1, with a decrease of 1.57% and a trading volume of 17,800 contracts[3] - Recommendations suggest light positions or observation due to geopolitical tensions and tariff fluctuations[3] Strategic Recommendations - Short-term strategy advises maintaining weak positions in main contracts and stronger positions in distant contracts[4] - Suggested light long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and around 1600 for the 2512 contract[4] - Long-term strategy recommends taking profits on high points and waiting for stabilization before making further decisions[4]

Report Title - "【中信期货航运】美西、欧洲计划运力高位回落,至美国发运量维持低位 -- 数据报告20250916" [1] Report Analysts - An Jierui,从业资格号:F03100682,投资咨询号: Z0021085 [1] - Wu Xilu,从业资格号:F03117373,投资咨询号:Z0022651 [1] Core Views - High - frequency shipping capacity shows mixed trends, with the planned capacity of the US West route rebounding month - on - month and the North European capacity rising slightly. The shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from China to the US has dropped again at a low level, and the arrival volume at US ports has declined in the past two weeks. Domestic port throughput fluctuates but remains higher than the same period last year. US booking data also shows a downward trend [4][5] Summary by Content High - frequency Shipping Capacity - In the 39th week (September 21 - 28 planned capacity), the capacity of the US West route dropped to 340,000 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.4%. The capacity of the US East route was 217,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 31%. The capacity of the China - Southeast Asia route was operating at a high level, with a year - on - year positive growth of 37% but a narrowing increase, and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5% with an expanding decline. The capacity of the China - North Europe route in the 39th week decreased month - on - month, dropping to 325,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%. The capacity of the Mediterranean route increased by 46.7% year - on - year and decreased by 8% month - on - month [4] Shipping Volume of Container Ships Carrying Goods to the US - As of September 15, the shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from China to the US reached 444,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8%, and the number was 54, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8%. The shipping volume of container ships carrying goods from Vietnam to the US rebounded last week, reaching 130,000 TEU, a week - on - week increase of 44% [4] Arrival Volume at US Ports - In the 37th week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods at US ports was 531,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 189,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 24.6%, and the arrival volume from Vietnam was 68,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9%. This week, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods at US ports was 486,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 8.4%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 170,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 10.5%, and the arrival volume from Vietnam was 61,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 9.9% [5] Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of September 14, the container throughput of domestic ports increased by 0.1% week - on - week and 13.5% year - on - year, reaching 665.2 million TEU [5] Vizion Booking Data - From August 18 - 25, the total US bookings were 336,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 5.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. From August 18 - 25, the US bookings from China were 122,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. In the first three weeks of August, the average weekly total US bookings were 355,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 7.1% compared to July. The average weekly US bookings from China were 124,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 9.6% compared to July [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For overseas markets, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting on the early morning of September 18. The market expects a 25bp rate cut, with a small probability of a 50bp cut. US inflation data and the Fed's personnel issues boost the rate - cut expectation [8]. - Domestically, observe the progress of physical work in Q4 and changes in financial market liquidity. Special bond issuance supports infrastructure demand, but there are risks of more funds used for debt reduction. The demand pulse for commodity consumption may be postponed to the end of Q4. Investors should also focus on the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [8]. - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for risk assets. Domestically, as the process of household deposit transfer indicates a rising risk preference, investors are recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, pay attention to the Q4 allocation opportunities of Chinese bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting on September 18 is crucial. Market expects rate cuts due to inflation data and personnel issues [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: Special bond issuance supports infrastructure, but there are risks of more funds for debt reduction. The demand for commodity consumption may be postponed. Investors should focus on household deposit transfer and inflation [8]. - **Asset Views**: Improvements in US dollar liquidity benefit risk assets. Domestically, focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets and Q4 Chinese bond allocation opportunities [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. Short - term judgment is oscillation due to the attenuation of incremental funds [10]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. Short - term judgment is oscillation due to potential deterioration of option market liquidity [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with concerns about tariff, supply, and monetary policy surprises [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Dovish expectations drive prices up. Short - term judgment is oscillatory rise, with attention on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [10]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the rate of freight decline. Short - term judgment is oscillation as the peak season fades and there is no upward driving force [10]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Steel mill profits shrink, and supply - demand is weak. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [10]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production is high, and port inventory slightly increases. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and other factors [10]. - **Coke**: Supply increases significantly, and the second - round price cut starts. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on steel mill production, coking cost, and macro sentiment [10]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has basically recovered, and the spot market is cautious. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on steel mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [10]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply - demand tends to be loose, and the market is under pressure. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on raw material cost and steel procurement [10]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and there is limited upward driving force. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on cost price and overseas quotes [10]. - **Glass**: Supply slightly increases, and expectations are still volatile. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on spot sales [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Middle - stream inventory is decreasing. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on soda ash inventory [10]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Supply of recycled copper is tight, and copper prices are strong. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [10]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakening, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on ore production and electrolytic aluminum复产 [10]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory is accumulating, and aluminum prices are falling. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [10]. - **Zinc**: Inventory is accumulating, and zinc prices are weak. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on macro risks and zinc - ore supply [10]. - **Lead**: Social inventory slightly decreases, and lead prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply disruptions and battery exports [10]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory increases significantly, and nickel prices fluctuate widely. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are slightly accumulating, and the market is weak. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on Indonesian policies and demand [10]. - **Tin**: Inventory in two markets slightly increases, and tin prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on Wa State's复产 and demand improvement [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is increasing, and silicon prices are capped. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The peak - season supply - demand gap is less than expected, and prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillatory rise, with attention on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [10]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances exist. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [13]. - **LPG**: Valuation has been repaired, and focus on cost - end guidance. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil and overseas propane costs [13]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt futures prices are below 3500. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on sanctions and supply disruptions [13]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Production increase is disturbed by geopolitics, and prices first fall then rise. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on geopolitics and crude oil prices [13]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Follows crude oil in wide - range oscillations. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on crude oil prices [13]. - **Methanol**: There is a large contradiction between near - and far - month contracts. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [13]. - **Urea**: Returns to fundamentals and is under pressure. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on export and market sentiment [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is pessimistic about future production capacity. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on coal, oil prices, port inventory, and device commissioning [13]. - **PX**: Fundamental drivers are limited, and prices follow costs. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and demand [13]. - **PTA**: Low inventory - holding willingness and sufficient spot liquidity suppress basis. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil, macro, and demand [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: Raw material support is average, and processing fees are recovering. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on downstream yarn - mill purchases and demand [13]. - **Bottle Chip**: Demand is in the off - season. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [13]. - **Propylene**: Reduction in propane and PL commodity volume boosts prices. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic macro [13]. - **PP**: May find support near previous lows. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro [13]. - **Plastic**: Peak - season demand provides slight support. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro [13]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment improves, and focus on policy details. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [13]. - **PVC**: Weak reality and strong expectations. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on expectations, cost, and supply [13]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices are falling. Short - term judgment is cautious decline, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [13]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Focus on the sustainability of the upward trend. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil supply - demand [13]. - **Protein Meal**: Prices fall after China - US - Spain talks. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [13]. - **Corn/Starch**: Imported corn increases, and futures prices fall. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on demand, macro, and weather [13]. - **Pig**: Pig supply is abundant, and prices are oscillating at a low level. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [13]. - **Rubber**: Short - term support is strong. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [13]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Continues the oscillatory trend. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil fluctuations [13]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are well - supported, and focus on new - cotton purchases. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on demand and inventory [13]. - **Sugar**: The short - term downward space is limited, and prices rebound. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on imports [13]. - **Pulp**: Rebounds after continuous decline, and it's better to wait and see. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macroeconomic changes and US dollar - based quotes [13]. - **Offset Paper**: Lacks upward and downward drivers, and prices oscillate around the listing price. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [13]. - **Log**: New warehouse receipts are registered, and prices oscillate around 800. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on shipment and dispatch volumes [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - month contract is mainly short - allocated in the off - season, with its valuation continuing to be revised downwards. The uncertainty lies in the second half of October. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, and recently, one can bet on the price increase expectation in November. The far - month contracts should pay attention to the recent Trump tariff risk [4][5][6]. - The strategy includes a weakly fluctuating main contract for unilateral trading and shorting the 10 - month contract on rallies for arbitrage [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of September 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index Europe route futures is 83,189.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 31,407.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1516.90, 1253.90, 1431.90, 1603.70, 1163.10, and 1656.20 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping alliances are provided, such as Gemini Cooperation (Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam prices in weeks 38 and 39, HPL - SPOT prices in late September and early October), MSC + Premier Alliance (MSC, ONE, HMM, YML prices), and Ocean Alliance (CMA, EMC, OOCL prices). As of late September, the central price has dropped to around 1500 - 1600 US dollars/FEU (equivalent to about 1050 - 1120 points of SCFIS) [1][2][4]. - On September 12, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1154 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2370 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3307 US dollars/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1440.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1349.84 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From September to November 2025, the weekly average capacity of China - European basic ports shows different levels. There are 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 3 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HPL has announced two additional vessels in October [3]. - As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU. Among them, 59 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 886,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events, such as Israel's stance on the Hamas leadership in Qatar, may have an impact on the supply chain [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand in the US line is weak, with the US NRF estimating that the container import demand in the US from September to December will decline by about 20% compared with the same period in 2024. In the off - season of shipping, the demand is generally low, but in the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume usually remains at a high level [5].

II GERIK 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【1】特朗普发文：在美国和中国之间于欧洲举行的重要贸易会议进行得非常顺利!会议即将结束。还就"某家"公 司达成了一项协议,我们国家的年轻人非常希望拯救这家公司,他们将会非常高兴!我将在周五与习主席进行交谈。 行言 贝达成 新 向客户加收费用。【3】据《金融时报》援引知情人士消息，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普计划敦促七国集团（G7）国 家,对印度和中国购买俄罗斯石油的行为征收50%至100%的高额关税。以切断莫斯科的战争资金来源。 【 】美国四 十年来首次经历类似带涨（stagflation）局面。食品与能源价格上涨，为消费者提供每日、每周的经济"得分板 ",指向经济压力方向个利。 【EC】 |行情综述:小幅反弹。 主因:12合约受中欧班列停运、国庆停航预期及挺价因素支撑,周一表现偏强。 现货价格:GEMINI 9月下价格跌至1600,QA降至1800,PA降至1700,MSC降至1750。9月下市场PAK运价中枢在1750。 派 点 (1)GEMINI: 联盟整体均值在1600。马士基wk38开舱1700: HPL-QQ 9月下 1750, HPL-S ...

Investment Rating - The transportation industry is rated as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - Crude oil freight rates have significantly increased, with the China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) rising by 14.3% to 1469.65 points as of September 11 [3][15] - The shipping market is experiencing a divergence in freight rates, with European routes seeing a decline while American routes continue to rise [16] - Cambodia's national airline plans to purchase 20 C909 aircraft from COMAC, and XPeng's eVTOL has received a flight certificate in the UAE [17][18] - Cainiao and Qatar Airways have formed a strategic partnership, with national social logistics totaling over 200 trillion yuan from January to July, reflecting a 5.2% year-on-year growth [23][25] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have surged, with the Middle East route freight rate increasing by 14.16% [14] - Cambodia's national airline intends to order 20 C909 aircraft, with 10 confirmed and 10 as intentions [17] - Cainiao and Qatar Airways have established a strategic cooperation to enhance cross-border e-commerce logistics [23] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air logistics prices remain stable, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4489.00 points, down 7.0% year-on-year [26] - The domestic freight volume for July increased by 15.04% year-on-year, with total express business volume reaching 164 billion pieces [51] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [5] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, suggesting companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Consider investment opportunities in the road and rail sectors, recommending companies such as Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express and Yunda [5]