每经AI快讯，中国黄金涨停走出2连板，2天累计涨幅达21.0%。 每经AI快讯，中国黄金涨停走出2连板，2天累计涨幅达21.0%。 ...

港股有色金属股集体上涨，黄金白银股涨幅领先，其中，中国白银集团大涨超10%领先，赤峰黄金涨超 7%，珠峰黄金涨6.6%，紫金矿业涨5.3%，山东黄金涨4.8%，中国黄金国际、紫金黄金国际、灵宝黄金 均涨超4%，招金矿业涨3.3%。此外，赤峰黄金、紫金矿业、中国黄金国际、山东黄金、紫金黄金国 际、灵宝黄金均刷新历史新高价。 高盛最新研报将2026年底黄金价格预测从4900美元/盎司上调至5400美元/盎司，原因是私人投资者与各 国央行的黄金需求持续攀升。高盛预计，2026年各国央行每月将增持60吨黄金，叠加美联储降息的背 景，黄金ETF的配置规模也将同步增加，进一步推动黄金估值走高。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00815 | 中国白银集团 | 0.750 | 10.29% | | 06693 | 赤峰黄金 | 42.600 | 7.04% | | 01815 | 珠峰黄金 | 2.560 | 6.67% | | 02899 | 三十四年薪 | 42.580 | 5.34% | | 01787 | 山东黄金 | 48.360 | 4 ...

每经AI快讯，黄金股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，赤峰黄金(06693.HK)涨7.19%，报42.66港元；中国白银 集团(00815.HK)涨7.35%，报0.73港元；灵宝黄金(03330.HK)涨6.09%，报25.78港元；紫金矿业 (02899.HK)涨5.74%，报42.74港元；山东黄金(01787.HK)涨5.2%，报48.54港元。 ...

摩根大通认为，随着投资者在轮动中继续偏向增长股，在企业盈利和仓位因素的支撑下，A股和港股的 升势有望延续至农历新年，预计港股在上升行情中会跑赢A股。盈利预期上调正陆续出现，尤其集中在 材料和通信服务板块，而从估值、增长和流动性来看，市场并未出现过热。 中信建投认为，白酒产业"五底阶段"与资本市场"三低一高"共振，结合近期市场策略相继落地，站在春 节旺季来临之际，认为本轮白酒调整期拐点将至，资本市场预期先行，白酒板块迎来周期底部配置机 会。 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。 1月26日，恒生指数高开0.35%，恒生科技指数涨0.05%。盘面上，资源股强势，紫金矿业涨近3%，赤峰 黄金涨超4%；新消费走强，老铺黄金涨超5%，泡泡玛特涨超4%。 关于港股后市 兴业证券认为，港股有望继续震荡向上。该行指出，岁末的资金阶段性收紧效应过去，内资继续流入； 如果海外形势带来扰动反而是机会。一旦特朗普"TACO"，反而可能通过弱美元与资金再配置，对港股 形成边际支撑。此外，政策和产业层面也存在催化。 ...

国联民生证券认为，全球地缘紧张局势升温，贵金属避险情绪提升，价格继续上行。长期来看央行购金 +美元信用弱化主线持续，继续看好金价上行。白银兼具工业和金融属性，光伏用银需求持续，看好工 业需求提振带来白银补涨行情。 消息面上，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普22日周四在总统专机"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国正调集 重兵前往伊朗，许多舰艇正在向伊朗行进。此外，特朗普24日威胁将对加拿大商品征收100%的关税， 美国与加拿大的紧张关系也面临加剧。受避险情绪影响，现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司。上期所沪 银主力合约触及涨停，报28226元/千克，现涨幅为17.0%。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，赤峰黄金(06693)涨7.19%，报42.66港元；中国白 银集团(00815)涨7.35%，报0.73港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨6.09%，报25.78港元；紫金矿业(02899)涨 5.74%，报42.74港元；山东黄金(01787)涨5.2%，报48.54港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal prices [2] - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend due to geopolitical events in North America, concerns over the US dollar and treasury bonds, and increased central bank gold purchases [6] - Copper prices are anticipated to remain strong due to supply disruptions in Chile and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong performance supported by macroeconomic factors and increased production capacity [6] - Energy metals show strong demand with continuous inventory depletion, particularly lithium, despite seasonal production declines [6] Summary by Sections Supply Disruptions and Opportunities - Gold prices have risen significantly, with SHFE gold increasing by 8.00% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram and COMEX gold by 8.44% to 4,983.10 USD per ounce [9] - Silver prices have also surged, with SHFE silver up 10.62% to 24,965 CNY per kilogram and COMEX silver up 16.63% to 103.26 USD per ounce [10] Industry and Stock Performance - The SW non-ferrous metals index increased by 6.03% last week, outperforming major indices [16] - The report highlights that industrial metal prices have shown mixed performance, with copper and aluminum prices increasing while lead and zinc prices have decreased [25] Metal Prices and Inventory - Copper prices rose to 101,340 CNY per ton on SHFE, reflecting a 0.57% increase, while LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton [12] - Aluminum prices on SHFE increased by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, supported by improved production and demand [11] Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks macroeconomic indicators, including CPI and PPI, which are crucial for understanding the broader economic environment affecting metal prices [29][44] Precious Metals - The report notes that low inventory levels and expectations of liquidity easing are driving precious metal prices higher [50] - Central bank gold purchases and ETF holdings are expected to support gold prices in 2026 [6] Copper Market - Supply disruptions in Chile, including strikes at major copper mines, are expected to support copper prices [12] - The report anticipates that copper prices may experience fluctuations based on macroeconomic developments, particularly related to interest rates [65] Energy Metals - Lithium inventory continues to decline, indicating strong demand, while the market is cautious about production disruptions from key mines [13] - The cobalt sector is facing high prices due to tight raw material supply, with companies extending their operations into downstream sectors [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese capital market is accelerating its opening - up, and new regulations for public funds are set to address industry issues. The bond market shows a slight upward trend, and the stock market has a positive outlook with new - fund issuance booming. Commodity markets, including metals, energy, and agriculture, have various price movements driven by different factors [2][17][25][36] - The macro - economic data shows a mixed picture, with GDP growth slowing, inflation rising slightly, and changes in various economic indicators such as manufacturing PMI, social financing, and trade [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year. Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month. Non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, slightly up from 50.0% [1] - Social financing in December 2025 was 22075 billion yuan, down from 35299 billion yuan in the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates changed compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - CPI in December 2025 was 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month. PPI was - 1.9% year - on - year, slightly improved from - 2.3% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The China Securities Regulatory Commission added 14 futures and options as domestic specific varieties, signaling an acceleration of capital market opening [2] - The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% in its January meeting, with a 95% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - On January 23, 31 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 37 had negative basis [3] 3.2.2 Metals - Gold prices broke through $5000 per ounce, and silver prices exceeded $106 per ounce, with a 3% increase. Analysts predict gold price increases between 10% - 35% in 2026 [4][5] - Gold - related listed companies' performance improved due to rising gold prices, and some companies are still acquiring gold - mine assets [5] - The prices of gold and silver reached their highest weekly gains since 2020, driven by factors such as a weak dollar, capital outflows from currency and bonds, and geopolitical tensions [5] - The lithium carbonate futures price exceeded 180,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply contraction and demand growth, but market divergence is increasing [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Coking coal prices rose significantly, with most coal types increasing by over 100 yuan per ton, increasing coke production costs [7] - Coking enterprises' losses intensified, with an average loss of 65 yuan per ton of coke last week, a 20 - yuan increase from the previous week [7] - The coke market is in a tight supply - demand balance, with high steel - mill iron - water production and low coke production [8] - In 2025, the national coal production by large - scale enterprises reached 48.3 billion tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - In December 2025, the national electricity market trading volume was 608 billion kWh, a 6.6% year - on - year increase. Green power trading volume increased by 32.3% [10] - Due to a cold wave in the US, natural gas futures prices exceeded $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 [10] - The US may cancel the 25% tariff on India if India's oil imports from Russia continue to decline [11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In mid - January 2026, 29 out of 50 important production materials' prices rose, 13 declined, and 8 remained unchanged compared to early January. Pig prices increased by 3.2% [14] - Fruit prices, such as strawberries, cherries, and tangerines, decreased due to sufficient supply [14] - As of mid - January 2026, the price of soybeans increased by 0.31% month - on - month [14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 23, the central bank conducted 125 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 38.3 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount [15] - This week, 1181 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 200 billion yuan of MLF will mature. The central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of MLF operations in January, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan [15] - The central bank's mid - term liquidity net injection in January reached 1 trillion yuan to maintain market liquidity [16] 3.3.2 Important News - The CSRC issued guidelines for public - fund performance comparison benchmarks, and the Asset Management Association of China released operating rules, which will take effect on March 1 [17] - The national market operation and consumption promotion meeting emphasized promoting commodity and service consumption upgrades [17] - In 2025, the actual use of foreign capital in China was 747.69 billion yuan, a 9.5% year - on - year decrease, but some industries saw growth [18] - The central bank will promote global financial governance reform and international financial cooperation in 2026 [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market showed a slight upward trend, with interest - rate bond yields falling by about 1bp. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.83% [25] - In the exchange bond market, most Vanke bonds rose, and the real - estate bond index and high - yield urban investment bond index also increased [26] - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [26][27] - Most money - market interest rates declined, and bond - issuance yields and multiples were reported [27][28] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9642, down 14 points from the previous trading day, but up 48 points last week. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 90 points [31] - The US dollar index fell 0.79%, and most non - US currencies rose [31] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the second - tier perpetual bonds have recovered, and the bond market may continue to fluctuate in Q1, with some trading opportunities [32] - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the investment opportunities of high - quality real - estate enterprises, commercial operators, Hong Kong - funded real - estate enterprises, and high - dividend property - management companies [32] - CICC Fixed - Income reports that the scale of nominal fixed - income + funds reached a record high in Q4 2025, while pure - bond funds faced redemption pressure [33] - CITIC Securities expects the expansion of public REITs to become normal, which will help transform the REITs market from "small and scattered" to "large and excellent" [34] - CITIC Construction Investment warns of risks such as US inflation, economic recession, European energy crisis, and global geopolitical risks [34] 3.4 Stock Market News - Foreign public - fund institutions are optimistic about the A - share market in 2026, maintaining high - position strategies and focusing on the technology sector [36][37] - Since the beginning of 2026, the new - fund issuance market has recovered, with 76 new funds established and a total fundraising of 71.939 billion yuan as of January 24 [37] 3.5 Today's Reminders - On January 26, 195 bonds will be listed, 127 bonds will be issued, 127 bonds will be paid, and 498 bonds will pay principal and interest [35]

港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.35%，国指涨0.3%，恒生科技指数涨0.05%。大型科技股多数上涨，京东 涨1%，阿里巴巴、美团、小米飘红，百度则跌近2%；早盘金银价格再创新高，现货黄金首次升破5060 美元，现货白银首次升破107美元，黄金带领有色金属股继续上涨，灵宝黄金、赤峰黄金等多股再创新 高。另外，海运股、汽车股、内房股多数走低，小鹏汽车、太平洋航运跌近2%。(格隆汇) ...

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ A股开盘，三大指数集体高开，沪指高开0.21%报4144.78点，深证成指高开0.37%，创业板指高开 0.48%。盘面上，现货黄金强势升破5060美元/盎司续刷新高，黄金、有色金属板块集体高开，湖南黄 金、福达合金涨停；光伏概念股延续涨势，钧达股份3连板，协鑫集成、双良节能2连板。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to increased domestic conflicts over illegal immigration in the US [11][12]. - US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season, with increased volatility [16][17]. - Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback after a continuous sharp rise [20]. - The bond market is experiencing a short - term rebound, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued [23][24]. - Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term as supply is at a high level and downstream restocking has ended [25][26]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [31]. - Palm oil is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [35]. - The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [37][38]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term due to seasonal supply pressure and limited demand [42]. - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [47]. - Copper prices are likely to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [51]. - Lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [53][54]. - Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [57]. - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and a bullish strategy is recommended with attention to position control and risk management [60][61]. - Tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of supply recovery expectations and consumption recovery [65]. - Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. - EU carbon prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. - Oil prices are expected to be supported by short - term geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions [71][72]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to see a mild recovery in processing fees around the Spring Festival [76]. - The container shipping index is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Europe is estimated to need $1 trillion to restructure its defense industry. The shooting of a US citizen by ICE has intensified domestic conflicts over illegal immigration, causing the dollar index to weaken. The Trump administration is expected to maintain a tough stance on illegal immigration, and market volatility will remain high. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [9][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in January was 56.4, reaching a five - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The US economy shows resilience, and the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short - term. The market is worried about the Fed's independence, and US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base on Greenland is located. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The New York Federal Reserve Bank conducted a "rate check" on the US dollar/yen exchange rate. Precious metals continued to rise strongly on Friday, reaching a new high. The market is trading on the safe - haven and de - dollarization needs caused by the tense situation between the US and Europe. The sharp rise of the yen and the fall of the dollar after the US and Japan jointly signaled to intervene in the foreign exchange market boosted the precious metals. However, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment and funds, and the risk is increasing. Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 125 billion yuan, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan. The bond market continued to strengthen, mainly due to the alleviation of previous concerns. However, there are still long - term negative factors, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The CSRC issued a guidance on the performance comparison benchmark for public funds. Due to strong bullish expectations, funds flowed into small - cap stocks, causing market differentiation. The regulatory authorities are expected to take stricter and more precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market is likely to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - position strategy for the stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. The supply in some areas increased slightly, while the downstream restocking ended, and the market sentiment declined. Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.849 billion tons. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. Before the Spring Festival, steel prices are expected to be volatile and may rebound slightly. It is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [27][29][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The EU plans to gradually phase out soybean biofuels. The establishment of the Southeast Asian Sustainable Aviation Fuel Council. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased, and the estimated volume for the next week is higher. The palm oil market is supported by inventory reduction and Ramadan expectations, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales reached the highest level of the year. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and it is expected to remain high. The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports increased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil decreased in the second half of December. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [39][41][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The import of Indian cotton yarn decreased, while the import of polyester - cotton blended yarn increased. The EU's clothing import rebounded in November 2025, and the import from China increased. The US cotton export signing reached a new high, but the export progress is still behind. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [43][44][47]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chilean contractor protests blocked access to mines. Tibet Julong Copper's second - phase project was put into operation. The Chilean Mining Association warned that it will take several years for copper supply to increase. The short - term macro factors support copper prices, but the fundamental factors may suppress price increases. Copper prices are likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [48][50][51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. The production of primary lead was stable, the profit of secondary lead refineries narrowed, and the consumption of lead batteries was weak. The social inventory increased, and lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [52][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A gold mine in Mexico was temporarily shut down. The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and MMG's zinc ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the smelting profit improved slightly, and the demand was affected by multiple factors. Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The retail and wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in the first 18 days of January 2026 decreased year - on - year. Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply last week. The demand is strong, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a bullish strategy with attention to position control and risk management [58][60][61]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The first domestic satellite computing power module was launched. The LME tin spread was at a discount, and the inventory increased. The import of tin concentrate in December increased year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase in 2026, but there are uncertainties. The demand is weak, and tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term [62][63][65]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The port logistics of the Indonesian Qing Shan Industrial Park was suspected of monopoly. The nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted, and the global primary nickel gap is expected to be more than 100,000 metric tons. The raw material price rose, and the demand for nickel salt increased. Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of the EUA main contract decreased. The EU carbon price remained high and volatile last week. The CoT data helped boost the market. The carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The production of a Kazakhstani oil field was delayed due to a power failure and export problems. The number of US oil rigs increased. The oil price rose on Friday, supported by the risk of supply disruptions and the increase in diesel cracking spreads [70][71][72]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories continued to rise. The polyester raw material price rose strongly, and the bottle - chip factory quotation increased. The market trading atmosphere was fair, and the downstream was cautious. The industry operating rate decreased, and the inventory pressure was transferred smoothly. The processing fee is expected to recover mildly around the Spring Festival [73][75][76]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Wildfires and rough seas restricted the operation of some ports in Chile. The short - term market is weak, and the European - line futures are expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the index will be higher due to container dumping and late ship departures [77][78].