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Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Vatti Corporation (华帝股份) has reported a total of 36,862 accounts in its combined ordinary and margin trading accounts as of December 31, 2025 [1]

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Core Viewpoint - China's trade surplus with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries has surpassed its surplus with the United States for the first time, indicating a significant shift in global trade dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Surplus Data - In the first eleven months of 2025, China's trade surplus with BRI countries accounted for 45% of its total trade surplus, approximately $480 billion, while the surplus with the U.S. dropped to 24%, a decline of over 10 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - This shift represents a historical turning point in global trade, moving the focus away from the U.S. as a dominant trade partner [1][10]. Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. has transformed from a key customer to an unreliable variable due to actions such as tariffs, supply chain decoupling, and technology restrictions, which have inadvertently pushed China to diversify its trade routes [4][10]. - The trade relationship with BRI countries is characterized by a more pragmatic approach, focusing on cost-effectiveness and reliable supply rather than political conditions [8][10]. Group 3: Belt and Road Initiative - The BRI has evolved into a multifaceted trade ecosystem, with over 155 participating countries, representing nearly 80% of global nations, primarily from developing and emerging markets [6]. - China's manufacturing products have a natural competitive advantage in these markets, ranging from infrastructure equipment to consumer goods [6][8]. Group 4: Financial and Trade Implications - The shift in trade surplus structure signifies a transition from a single-core dependency to a diversified trade network, impacting global financial systems and the balance of power [10][12]. - The increasing use of the Chinese yuan in trade settlements among BRI countries indicates a gradual move away from dollar dominance, suggesting a potential reconfiguration of global financial rules [12][16]. Group 5: Strategic Outlook - This transition is not without risks, as BRI countries may face political instability and market volatility, but it represents a critical step for China in diversifying its trade relationships and reducing reliance on any single market [14][18]. - The change in trade dynamics signals a potential decline in U.S. influence and a redefinition of global trade rules, marking a new era in international relations [16][18].

Core Insights - The 2026 home appliance national subsidy policy is expected to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize retail sales, particularly in the white goods sector [2][3][20] - The policy continues to support the replacement of old appliances with new ones, focusing on six major categories, including refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners, with a subsidy of 15% of the product price, capped at 1500 yuan per item [3][21][22] - The white goods production in January showed a positive trend, with a total output of 34.53 million units, representing a 6% year-on-year increase, driven by the national subsidy policy [4][24] Monthly Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - The national subsidy policy for 2026 aims to boost the replacement demand for home appliances, which is expected to support domestic sales [20][21] - January's white goods production saw a recovery, with air conditioner production increasing by 11% year-on-year, indicating a potential stabilization in demand [4][24] - In November, the domestic sales of major appliances faced pressure due to high base effects from the previous year, but exports of refrigerators and washing machines showed good growth [5][32] Key Data Tracking - In December, the home appliance sector experienced a relative return of -1.06% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.28% [34] - The prices of raw materials such as copper and aluminum increased by 13.5% and 4.8% respectively in December, while cold-rolled steel prices decreased by 3.2% [36] - The shipping index for major routes showed a mixed performance, with the West America route down by 6.4% and the Europe route up by 4.8% [45] Key Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights key companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL, and Gree Electric as strong performers in the white goods sector, with recommendations for investment based on their resilience and growth potential [14][15][54] - The home appliance industry is expected to face challenges due to high inflation in overseas markets and geopolitical tensions, but leading companies are adapting by enhancing local production capabilities [50][51]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, Shanghai has effectively implemented the "old for new" consumption policy, resulting in significant sales and consumer engagement in various sectors [3][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The sales revenue from "old for new" products in Shanghai exceeded 121.23 billion yuan, benefiting over 21.95 million people [4]. - The retail sales of social consumer goods in Shanghai increased by 5% year-on-year from January to November, surpassing the national average by 1 percentage point and accelerating by 8.1% compared to the same period last year [6]. Group 2: Product Categories - The "old for new" program included over 320,000 vehicles, more than 4.5 million digital products, and over 4.9 million home appliances [5]. - The program also facilitated the replacement of over 1.19 million kitchen and bathroom items and more than 330,000 electric bicycles [5]. Group 3: Environmental Impact - The "old for new" initiative contributed to a 2.7 percentage point increase in the total retail sales, promoting green transformation and upgrading of industries [6]. - The proportion of new energy vehicles in the "old for new" car replacement program reached 64%, exceeding the national average, and led to a 21.6% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle retail sales from January to November [6]. Group 4: Recycling and Consumer Engagement - From January to November 2025, the sales of second-hand cars grew by 36%, and the recycling volume of scrapped vehicles increased by over 80% [7]. - The offline participation in home appliance and furniture exchanges reached 4.65 million people, with 2,105 offline merchants and nearly 7,500 stores, generating sales of 21.2 billion yuan [7].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report predicts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will slowly rebound to near zero in the first half of 2026, with the AR-gap and Phillips curve models indicating a mild recovery in PPI year-on-year, although the support from macro variables is weaker than the momentum of inflation itself [7][19]. - Beneficiary sectors during the historical periods when PPI rises from negative to positive include non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, machinery, electricity, home appliances, agriculture, coal, electronics, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals [7][21]. - The liquidity-sensitive mode of major assets indicates that market sentiment has reached the upper range of historical thresholds, leading to a decrease in the explanatory power of sentiment on equity asset gains, suggesting a potential decline in momentum driven by sentiment [7][39]. Group 2: Inflation and Beneficiary Sectors - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy has led to market expectations of "price recovery," which helps to change the deflationary mindset, although the upward space for inflation is constrained by demand [19]. - Historical analysis shows that during periods when PPI rises from the bottom to near zero, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, machinery, steel, electricity, and public utilities exhibit significant positive marginal impacts on overall equity markets [21][27]. - The report identifies that the structural opportunities in the consumer sector are present, while the dividend sector faces both profit and valuation pressures [7][27]. Group 3: Macro and Funding Perspectives - The macro liquidity environment is characterized by a "price soft and volume stable" pattern, with marginal recovery in base currency issuance but still relying on rapid declines in interest rates to improve the overall funding situation [46]. - Global macro liquidity is also showing marginal recovery, primarily driven by strong expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to significant capital inflows into the Hong Kong stock market [46][48]. - The report notes that the recent surge in new applications for equity funds indicates a warming market sentiment, with expectations that major funds will concentrate their investments around the end of the first quarter of 2026 [53][60]. Group 4: Style Allocation - The report indicates that the information ratio for dividend and consumer sectors continues to decline, with no reversal signals currently, while the information ratio for cyclical sectors is rapidly strengthening, suggesting a shift in focus towards growth sectors to capture momentum gains [74]. - The growth sector's net value is approaching previous highs, but there is still significant room for the information ratio to rise, indicating a potential for better performance in this area [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Funding liquidity**: Both the supply and demand sides have contracted. On the supply side, the new issuance scale of equity - focused public funds has declined, margin trading funds and stock - type ETFs have shown a significant contraction and turned into net outflows, and the repurchase amount remains at a historical low. On the demand side, equity financing and net industrial capital reduction have contracted to historical median levels, and south - bound funds have turned into net outflows [2][6] - **Trading congestion**: Using the ratio of the trading volume in the past four weeks to the market value (compared to the whole A - share market) as an indicator, the trading heat percentile of central state - owned enterprises, home appliances, and photovoltaic industries has increased, while that of machinery, banking, and medical services has decreased [2] - **Investor sentiment thermometer**: The market rebounded last week with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 11 - day consecutive increase and a moderate increase in trading volume. Affected by holidays, the self - media search popularity of A - shares decreased. The trend of public fund clustering has weakened, with a preference for value - style and financial and consumer industries. The net inflow of retail funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A - share markets has decreased [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Funding liquidity 1.1 Public equity new issuance scale - The newly established share of public equity funds last week was 57.9 billion shares, a decrease from the previous value of 94.4 billion shares. Among them, actively managed funds issued 13.9 billion shares, and passive index funds issued 44.0 billion shares [8] 1.2 Margin trading funds - **Overall situation**: The latest margin trading balance decreased, with the balance accounting for 2.58% of the market value of tradable shares, at the 96% percentile in the past three years. The net inflow of margin trading funds last week was about - 19.7 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous value, at the 35% percentile in the past three years. The trading volume accounted for 10.6% of the total A - share trading volume, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value, with the participation rate at the 88% percentile in the past three years. The turnover rate of margin trading decreased, while the number of individual investors participating in margin trading increased [12][13] - **Industry situation**: The net inflow was mainly in the military industry (51.8 billion yuan), home appliances (12.3 billion yuan), and public utilities (12.2 billion yuan), while the net outflow was in electronics (- 29.1 billion yuan), non - banking finance (- 23.4 billion yuan), and power equipment (- 15.6 billion yuan) [16][17] 1.3 Stock - type ETFs - The net inflow of stock - type ETFs last week was - 39.5 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous value, at the 31.1% percentile in the past three years [18] 1.4 Listed company repurchases - The repurchase amount of listed companies last week was 5.2 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous value, at the 6% percentile in the past three years [21] 1.5 Equity financing - The equity financing amount last week was 143.1 billion yuan, at the 63% percentile in the past three years, including 64.5 billion yuan from IPOs and 78.6 billion yuan from refinancing [23] 1.6 Industrial capital - **Overall situation**: The net reduction of industrial capital last week was - 49.4 billion yuan, a decrease in scale compared to the previous value, at the 59% percentile in the past three years [25] - **Industry situation**: The net increase was mainly in the petrochemical (2.6 billion yuan) and food and beverage (0.1 billion yuan) industries, while the net reduction was in the military industry (- 9.1 billion yuan), electronics (- 7.3 billion yuan), and machinery (- 7.1 billion yuan) industries [28][29] 1.7 Restricted - share lifting - The market value of restricted shares lifted last week was 571.7 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous value, at the 53% percentile in the past three years. The expected market value of restricted shares to be lifted this week is 1632.8 billion yuan [31] 1.8 South - bound and north - bound funds - The net inflow of south - bound funds last week was - 34.3 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week, at the 5% percentile in the past three years. The trading volume of north - bound funds accounted for 6.0% of the Shanghai and Shenzhen A - share trading volume, a 3.0 - percentage - point increase from the previous value affected by seasonality, with the participation rate at the 14% percentile in the past three years [34][37] 2. Trading congestion 2.1 Growth - themed industries - The trading heat percentile of the medical service industry decreased by 6 percentage points to 32% [42] 2.2 Value - themed industries - The trading heat percentile of central state - owned enterprises increased by 18 percentage points to 57%, and that of the home appliance industry increased by 7 percentage points to 52% [47] 2.3 Cyclical - themed industries - The trading heat percentile of the non - ferrous metals industry increased by 4 percentage points to 27%, while that of the machinery industry decreased by 10 percentage points to 7% [52][55] 2.4 TMT - themed industries - The trading heat percentile of the media industry decreased by 5 percentage points to 31%, and that of the electronics industry decreased by 4 percentage points to 40% [60] 3. Investor sentiment thermometer 3.1 Self - media - Affected by holidays, the self - media search popularity of A - shares decreased despite the market's rebound and the Shanghai Composite Index's 11 - day consecutive increase [65] 3.2 Douyin users - The proportion of users in high - level cities watching "A - share" content on Douyin decreased, while the proportion of young people under 23 years old increased [67] 3.3 Kuaishou - The number of "A - share" works on Kuaishou decreased by 89, the playback volume increased by 44,000 times, and the interaction volume decreased by 10,000 times compared to the previous period [71] 3.4 Weibo sentiment - The overall sentiment on Weibo was stable last week. The 11 - day consecutive increase of the Shanghai Composite Index led to a significant increase in positive and surprised emotions [73] 3.5 Fund style - The clustering trend of public funds weakened last week, with a preference for value - style and financial and consumer industries [76] 3.6 Retail funds - The net inflow of retail funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen A - share markets was 91.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.82 billion yuan from the previous value, at the 42.3% percentile in the past five years [82] 3.7 Retail entry channels - The cumulative download volume of Flush reached 168,000 times, an increase of 34,000 times from the previous value, while the download volume of Eastmoney was 74,000 times, a decrease of 4,000 times from the previous value. The number of five - star reviews of Flush decreased by 1,510 times [84]

Core Insights - The city of Fuzhou has successfully leveraged the New Year holiday to stimulate consumer spending through a series of promotional activities, resulting in a positive trend in the local economy [1][3][17] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Fuzhou's key monitored shopping malls reported a total revenue of 122.3 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.17% [1] - Supermarkets in the city recorded a total revenue of 7.41186 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.09% [1] - Large dining enterprises in Fuzhou achieved a total revenue of 1.07358 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.37% [1] Group 2: Policy Incentives and Events - The city implemented a series of policies to promote consumption, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, hosting two exhibitions to encourage green consumption [3] - The "2026 L County New Energy Vehicle and Home Appliance Exhibition" attracted 26 automotive brands and 14 home appliance companies, generating 1.05 million yuan in holiday sales [3] - The "2026 New Year Red Home Decoration Mega Sale" in Nanfeng saw a 50% increase in store visits and a 45% rise in total sales compared to the previous year [3] Group 3: Innovative Consumption Experiences - Fuzhou's "Food+" model has created new dining experiences, leading to a total sales figure of 16.92 million yuan in shopping centers, a 50% increase year-on-year, with dining outlets seeing a 57% growth [8] - The city organized various cultural and entertainment events, such as the "2026 New Year Celebration" live broadcast, which showcased local agricultural products and achieved sales exceeding 260,000 yuan [12] - The integration of cultural tourism and commerce has led to significant increases in visitor numbers and spending, with the Lichuan Ancient City event attracting 148,000 visitors and generating 87 million yuan in tourism revenue [16]

Core Viewpoint - Gree Electric Appliances announced that it will not raise air conditioner prices despite rising copper prices, indicating a strategic decision to maintain market competitiveness while the industry explores aluminum as a substitute for copper in air conditioning systems [3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Rising Copper Prices - The price of copper futures has exceeded $10,000 per ton, leading to increased costs for air conditioning units, where copper constitutes about 40% of the bill of materials (BOM) [5][6]. - Some air conditioning companies have already raised prices due to the surge in copper prices, with one company increasing prices by 5% and another by 2% to 4% [5]. - Gree's decision to keep prices stable is seen as a strategy to enhance its market share and competitiveness amid rising costs [5][6]. Group 2: Aluminum as a Substitute for Copper - The Chinese government has initiated policies to promote the use of aluminum in place of copper, particularly in air conditioning heat exchangers [5][8]. - Gree Electric has been researching aluminum technology for years but has not yet found it to meet the same technical standards as copper, leading to a cautious approach regarding aluminum adoption [3][8]. - Other companies, such as Wanbao, have begun to introduce aluminum-based air conditioners at lower prices compared to traditional copper models, indicating a shift in the market [8]. Group 3: Technical and Market Challenges - The performance standards for aluminum alloy pipes in air conditioning systems are still under development, with ongoing research needed to ensure reliability and efficiency comparable to copper [10][11]. - The industry faces challenges in convincing consumers of the corrosion resistance and overall reliability of aluminum compared to copper, necessitating extensive testing and validation [11][12]. - The transition to aluminum may require significant investment in new manufacturing processes and equipment, as the production techniques for aluminum differ from those for copper [12].