Core Insights - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25% during the period from June 30 to July 4, 2025, with the steel and building materials sectors performing particularly well [2] - Various types of funds experienced gains, with actively managed equity funds rising by 1.82%, mixed funds increasing by 1.25%, and bond funds up by 0.17% [2] Equity Sector Performance - The steel sector showed strong performance, with the majority of the Shenwan first-level industries experiencing gains, particularly in steel and building materials [8] - Over the last 12 periods, banks and comprehensive sectors have also performed well [8] Fund Performance - Actively managed equity funds focusing on the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors performed notably well during this period [11] - The top-performing representative actively managed equity funds included: - Yongying Medical Health A with a return of 15.52% - Hongtu Innovation Healthcare Stock with a return of 13.39% [12] - The top-performing representative index equity funds included: - Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF with a return of 7.58% - Huatai-PB Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF with a return of 6.21% [12] Fixed Income Sector Performance - The bond market indices showed positive movement, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 1.21% and convertible bond funds increasing by 0.91% [14] - The average return for convertible bond funds this year stands at 7.86% [16] QDII Fund Performance - Various QDII funds showed positive performance, particularly in alternative asset categories, with energy commodity QDII funds rising by 2.08% and gold-related QDII funds increasing by 1.62% [17] - The top-performing QDII funds included: - E Fund Global Pharmaceutical Industry RMB A with a return of 6.53% - Huatai-PB Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF with a return of 5.47% [19]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile increase last week, with the CSI 300 rising by 1.54% and the CSI 1000 increasing by 0.56% [2][15] - The central economic committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need to govern "involution" competition, leading to a rally in traditional cyclical industries such as steel, coal, and building materials [3][15] Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to reduce ineffective supply and promote industrial upgrades, shifting from total stimulus to managing supply [3][16] - The focus on "anti-involution" is expected to create a macro environment conducive to technological and industrial upgrades, although related policies have yet to be fully implemented [3][16] Sector Analysis - Deep-sea technology is highlighted as a multidisciplinary industry that may see repeated catalysts as policies are released [4][17] - Recent easing of semiconductor restrictions by the U.S. government may enhance domestic EDA tool replacement rates, with a focus on building a complete industrial chain [4][17] Fund Market Dynamics - The Beijing Stock Exchange launched the "Specialized and New" index on June 30, which includes the top 50 companies in strategic emerging industries, potentially increasing trading activity on the exchange [4][18] Fund Performance Tracking - The Active Equity Fund Index rose by 0.46% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 11.29% since inception [5][19] - The Value Equity Fund Index increased by 0.56%, with a cumulative excess return of -5.87% since inception [6][19] - The Balanced Equity Fund Index saw a rise of 1.85%, with a cumulative excess return of 4.91% since inception [7][19] - The Growth Equity Fund Index increased by 1.15%, with a cumulative excess return of 15.96% since inception [8][19] - The Pharmaceutical Equity Fund Index rose by 6.88%, with a cumulative excess return of 21.94% since inception [9][19] - The Consumer Equity Fund Index increased by 0.57%, with a cumulative excess return of 15.46% since inception [10][19] - The Technology Equity Fund Index rose by 0.46%, with a cumulative excess return of 15.71% since inception [11][19] - The High-end Manufacturing Equity Fund Index increased by 1.73%, with a cumulative excess return of -3.19% since inception [12][19] - The Cyclical Equity Fund Index rose by 1.11%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.73% since inception [13][19]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, closing at 3472.32 points[5] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25%, closing at 10508.76 points[5] - The ChiNext Index gained 1.50%, closing at 2156.23 points[5] Sector Performance - The steel sector led with a growth of 5.06%[12] - The construction materials sector followed with a 3.96% increase[12] - The banking sector rose by 3.77%[12] - The pharmaceutical and biological sector increased by 3.64%[12] - The computer sector experienced a decline of 1.28%[12] Margin Trading - The total margin trading balance reached 18529.27 billion yuan, up by 0.73% from the previous week[15] - Margin trading balance accounted for 2.25% of the A-share market's circulating market value, down by 0.70%[15] - The total margin trading transaction volume was 6534.33 billion yuan, down by 6.98%[16] Market Breakdown - As of July 4, the margin trading balances for the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges were 9348.08 billion yuan, 9122.53 billion yuan, and 58.65 billion yuan, respectively[19] - The top five sectors with increased margin trading balances included chemicals (1.85 billion yuan) and telecommunications (1.57 billion yuan)[22]

（原标题：7月4日银行、电子、有色金属等行业融资净卖出额居前） 7月4日各行业融资余额环比变动 截至7月4日，市场最新融资余额为18400.47亿元，较上个交易日环比减少63.41亿元，分行业统计，申万 所属一级行业有4个行业融资余额增加，建筑材料行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加7245.14万元； 融资余额增加居前的行业还有轻工制造、房地产、美容护理等，融资余额分别增加6795.96万元、 4768.47万元、2216.16万元；融资余额减少的行业有27个，银行、电子、有色金属等行业融资余额减少 较多，分别减少7.24亿元、5.67亿元、5.22亿元。 以幅度进行统计，建筑材料行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为118.18亿元，环比增长0.62%，其 次是轻工制造、美容护理、房地产行业，环比增幅分别为0.52%、0.36%、0.16%；融资余额环比降幅居 前的行业有银行、钢铁、通信等，最新融资余额分别有563.91亿元、143.13亿元、629.66亿元，分别下 降1.27%、0.91%、0.78%。（数据宝） 代码 最新融资 余额（亿元） 较上一日增减（亿元） 环比增幅（%） 建筑材料 118.18 ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index futures is a fluctuating and moderately bullish pattern [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's center of gravity continued to rise last week, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. The core driver of last week's market was the China Central Finance and Economics Commission meeting on the 1st, which emphasized "anti - involution" through the construction of a unified market, leading to a sharp increase in market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. The value style outperformed last week, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - Currently, the external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue [2] Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market's center of gravity rose, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. In terms of sectors, steel, building materials, and banks led the gains, while computer, non - bank finance, and beauty care led the losses. The value style outperformed, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - **Future Outlook**: The current external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue. This week, attention should be paid to the release of June economic data in China [2] - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy and overseas tariff negotiation progress [3] Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating range for the IF2507 main contract is between 3826 and 4024 points; for the IH2507 main contract, between 2649 and 2772 points; for the IC2507 main contract, between 5646 and 6025 points; and for the IM2507 main contract, between 5970 and 6372 points [4] - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Due to the frequent switching between value and growth styles recently, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.62%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.27%, Germany's DAX fell 1.02%, and France's CAC 40 rose 0.06%. In the Asia - Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.85%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% [8] - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have risen. Last week, all major domestic indices also showed an upward trend [8] Index Valuation Tracking - As of June 27, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.93 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the SSE 50 Index was 11.18 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 500 Index was 27.66 times, and the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.02 times [19][20] Market Capital Flow Review - **Investor and Fund Data**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in relevant charts. Last week, the capital interest rate declined, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [22]

Group 1 - The current A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, with significant fluctuations occurring within short time frames [1] - Historical analysis shows that the average gain during "valuation expansion" phases since 2005 is 21.9%, lasting an average of 53 trading days [1] - Factors leading to the end of valuation expansion include policy tightening, external negative shocks, and excessive valuation and sentiment [1] Group 2 - The recent "Big Beautiful Bill" signed by the US government aims to boost AI subsidies and promote domestic chip manufacturing, with a projected economic growth impact of 0%-0.6% by 2026 [8] - The bill's long-term effects may lead to a decrease in economic growth rates after 2028 [8] Group 3 - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market by promoting the construction of safe, comfortable, and green housing [16] - Recent data indicates that the maximum electricity load in China reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, driven by extreme heat [11] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry in Shenzhen is being promoted through ten measures aimed at high-quality development [15] - The aviation sector is seeing regulatory changes with the establishment of a leadership group to develop general aviation and low-altitude economy [12] Group 5 - The food delivery market is witnessing intense competition, with Meituan reporting over 1.2 billion orders in a single day [5][34] - The e-commerce platform Taobao is launching a significant subsidy campaign, aiming for a substantial increase in order volume [34] Group 6 - The latest industry trends indicate that the textile, light manufacturing, and media sectors are in a recession phase, while the computer, communication, and defense industries are expanding [27] - The pharmaceutical and food and beverage sectors are expected to see an increase in their economic outlook, while the construction materials and steel industries may experience a decline [28]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 7 月 6 日 周度金融市场跟踪 财经委会议"反内卷"，钢铁建材领涨 A 股；债 券市场收益率整体小幅震荡下行 （ 6 月 30 日 -7 月 4 日） 股票方面，本周 A 股震荡上涨，全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 1.5%，中证 2000 上涨 0.6%。本周港股走势弱于 A 股，恒生指数下跌 1.5%，恒生科技指数下跌 2.3%。行业方面，本周钢铁、建筑材料和银行领涨，计算机、非银金融和美容 护理领跌。周内看，周一（6 月 30 日）上午，6 月制造业 PMI 指数发布，连续 2 个月回升。当天市场超 4000 只股票上涨。周二（7 月 1 日）市场震荡上涨。 周二盘后中央财经委第六次会议新闻发布，会议强调依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争。受此影响，周三（7 月 2 日）钢铁、煤炭和建筑材料等传统周期类行业 领涨 A 股。周四（7 月 3 日）盘前美国解除对中国芯片设计类软件出口限制新 闻发出，当天市场超 3200 家公司上涨，创业板指数上涨 1.9%。周五（7 月 4 日） 市场有所分化，以沪深 300 为代表的大盘股上涨，但以中证 2000 为代 ...

Market Overview - A-shares exhibited a "strong in Shenzhen, weak in Shanghai" characteristic last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25% [2] - The banking sector index reached a new high, indicating a shift of funds from overvalued sectors to policy-benefiting areas [2] - The average increase of Wind's first-level industry was 1.30%, with 81% of sectors showing positive returns, particularly steel, building materials, and banking, which rose by 5.06%, 3.96%, and 3.77% respectively [2][13] Fund Issuance - A total of 20 funds were issued last week, including 11 equity funds, 5 mixed funds, 3 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with a total issuance of 5.328 billion units [4][10] Fund Performance - The Wind All Fund Index increased by 0.71% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index rising by 1.60% and the mixed equity fund index increasing by 1.25% [3][9] Global Asset Review - International equity markets showed slight divergence, with U.S. stocks continuing to rise, driven by Nvidia's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, while European markets displayed weakness due to concerns over economic recovery [5] - Commodity markets experienced significant differentiation, with oil prices influenced by U.S. economic data and international risk factors, while metals like copper, aluminum, gold, and silver recorded gains [5] Domestic Bond Market Review - The bond market remained stable, with the China Bond Composite Index rising by 0.15% and the convertible bond index performing well with a gain of 1.21% [14]

- The report uses Mahalanobis distance to measure industry crowding based on weekly price and transaction volume changes[3][17][18] - The construction process involves identifying industries where price and transaction volume deviate significantly, with industries outside the ellipse in quadrant 1 indicating short-term significant crowding[17] - Last week, the building materials industry showed significant trading crowding[18]

| 家用电 | 15.88 | -2.77 | 2.07 | 0.03 | -3.89 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 | | | | | | | 社会服 | 13.50 | 11.98 | 2.99 | -0.20 | -4.08 | | 务 | | | | | | | 环保 | 18.96 | 11.58 | 2.12 | -1.03 | -4.59 | | 医药生 物 | 68.04 | -1.48 | 2.49 | 0.39 | -5.73 | | 通信 | 32.51 | 17.15 | 1.87 | -0.85 | -15.10 | | 汽车 | 45.27 | -0.21 | 2.09 | -0.53 | -17.97 | | 基础化 工 | 71.27 | 1.70 | 2.66 | -1.22 | -21.74 | | 机械设 | 65.11 | -6.74 | 2.40 | -0.97 | -28.36 | | 备 | | | | | | | 国防军 | 32.96 | -12.68 | 3.05 | -0.91 | -29.30 | ...