- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed results on November 10, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4018.6 points, up 0.53%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.18% to 13427.61 points. However, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.92% to 3178.83 points, and the North Star 50 Index decreased by 0.67% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 21946.3 billion yuan, an increase of 1740.87 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The main capital in the A-share market experienced a net outflow of 254.29 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 77.35 billion yuan and a closing net inflow of 11.65 billion yuan [2][3] - The CSI 300 index saw a net outflow of 87.96 billion yuan, while the ChiNext index had a net outflow of 147.56 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board experienced a net outflow of 6.9 billion yuan [4][5] Sector Performance - Among the 13 sectors tracked, the food and beverage industry led with a net inflow of 109.94 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.49% increase [6][7] - Other sectors with significant net inflows included pharmaceuticals and biotechnology with 51.04 billion yuan, non-bank financials with 37.87 billion yuan, banks with 25.13 billion yuan, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery with 24.72 billion yuan [7] - Conversely, the power equipment sector faced the largest net outflow of 211.06 billion yuan, followed by electronics with 154.94 billion yuan, and machinery with 76.27 billion yuan [7] Institutional Activity - Cambridge Technology recorded the highest net inflow of 7.58 billion yuan among individual stocks [8] - The top stocks with institutional net buying included Wanrun Technology and Tianji Shares, both showing a 10% increase [10][11] - Institutions showed interest in several stocks, with notable net buying in Prolo Pharmaceutical and Zhaoyan New Drug, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [13]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:58，今日沪指涨0.15%，A股成交量1136.52亿股，成交金额17941.29 亿元，比上一个交易日增加10.62%。个股方面，3013只个股上涨，其中涨停88只，2278只个股下跌， 其中跌停12只。从申万行业来看，美容护理、食品饮料、农林牧渔等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为3.17%、 2.98%、2.21%；电子、电力设备、通信等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.82%、1.46%、1.27%。（数据宝） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美容护理 | 3.17 | 59.91 | 100.55 | 依依股份 | 10.00 | | 食品饮料 | 2.98 | 456.38 | 190.41 | 欢乐家 | 19.98 | | 农林牧渔 | 2.21 | 229.32 | 22.44 | 一致魔芋 | 6.02 | | 商贸零售 | 2.10 | 300.58 | 68.58 | 中国中免 | 10.00 | | 社会服务 | ...

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 Index and the Specialized and Innovative Index will undergo adjustments on December 15, 2025, with the North Exchange 50 Index experiencing its fourth adjustment and the Specialized and Innovative Index its first adjustment [10][12][15] - The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1,522.73 points, reflecting a weekly decline of 3.79%, while the Specialized and Innovative Index closed at 2,532.06 points, down 5.43% [31][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality stocks and technology growth within the North Exchange 50 components, particularly those that have undergone significant price adjustments [3][42] Group 2 - The report identifies potential new additions to the North Exchange 50 Index, including companies such as Kaifa Technology, Gobika, and Wantong Hydraulic, with a focus on their average market capitalization and trading volume [12][13] - The North Exchange Specialized and Innovative Index is expected to include companies like Star Map Measurement and Senxuan Pharmaceutical, highlighting their market performance and growth potential [15][16] - The report suggests that the North Exchange's valuation structure shows a significant number of companies with high P/E ratios, indicating a potential investment opportunity in undervalued stocks [21][36][41] Group 3 - The report indicates that the average P/E ratio for key sectors such as high-end equipment, information technology, and chemical new materials are 42.83X, 91.31X, and 48.18X respectively, suggesting varying levels of valuation across industries [36][41] - The North Exchange's market performance shows a decline in trading volume, with an average daily turnover of 230.88 billion yuan, down 20.36% from the previous week [26][30] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring companies with strong quarterly performance and reasonable valuations as the North Exchange approaches its index adjustments [42][43]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that industries with prolonged weak performance tend to exhibit a "prolonged decline" characteristic, with defensive sectors like environmental protection, public utilities, and transportation more likely to underperform in the long term [1][2] Industry Analysis - Industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years and are nearing their historical longest underperformance periods include beauty care, basic chemicals, and social services [4] - The construction materials, electrical equipment, and food and beverage sectors have been underperforming for a duration close to their historical longest periods, with a difference of about one year [4] - Industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years but have a higher probability of outperforming in the fourth year include food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, social services, and biomedicine [2][4] Defensive Sector Characteristics - The public utility sector exhibits a typical public utility attribute, characterized by weak cycles and low beta, showing low elasticity during bull markets, as evidenced in the bull markets of 2006-2007, Q1-Q3 of 2009, and H2 of 2014 to H1 of 2015 [3] - The trend of negative excess returns in public utility sectors is attributed to small-cap stocks lacking both offensive characteristics in bull markets and stable dividend attributes, leading to a divergence between industry leaders and small-cap stocks [3] - The independent market performance of leading stocks in the public utility and environmental sectors since 2017 is driven by the revaluation of dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment, with stable earnings and high dividends contributing to a stronger "moat" and scale effect for these leaders [3] Statistical Insights - An analysis of the Shenwan first-level industries from 2007 to 2025 reveals that the probability of an industry underperforming for three consecutive years is inversely related to the conditional probability of it outperforming in the fourth year [2]

Group 1 - The report identifies three main factors influencing convertible bond performance: equity-debt price ratio, dollar liquidity, and large-small cap style [2][11][20] - The current economic environment is characterized by a recovery phase, but limited incremental benefits due to insufficient momentum from households and enterprises [2][12][39] - The dollar is expected to remain in a loose monetary environment, which historically supports equity markets [2][16][19] Group 2 - Convertible bonds are currently in a trading phase that follows the performance of underlying stocks, having experienced three cycles since 2018 [3][27][28] - The median price of convertible bonds as of November 3, 2025, is 132.72 yuan, placing it at the 99.3% historical percentile, indicating a high valuation level [4][34][35] - The median conversion premium is 27%, which is at the 55.3% historical percentile, suggesting a relatively high valuation in the current market [4][34][35] Group 3 - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy for convertible bonds, focusing on equity-like convertible bonds priced above 120 yuan, with specific recommendations for various sectors [5][39][41] - Recommended convertible bonds include those from financial consumption, public utilities, AI and robotics, as well as semiconductor and manufacturing sectors [5][39][41] Group 4 - The investor behavior analysis shows that the total outstanding convertible bond scale has decreased from 844.7 billion yuan in January 2025 to 759.5 billion yuan in October 2025, with funds increasing their holdings [29][31] - The report highlights a shift in investor composition, with funds increasing their share from 34.3% to 39.8% during the same period, while insurance institutions have reduced their holdings significantly [29][32]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced fluctuations on November 7, with all three major indices retreating after an initial rise, while the agriculture sector showed resilience [1]. Group 1: ETF and Index Performance - The Tianhong ETF (512620) concluded its fundraising today, tracking the China Securities Agricultural Index, which selects 50 stocks across sectors like breeding and agricultural chemicals [2]. - The index includes leading companies such as Muyuan and Haida, indicating a diversified investment approach [2]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Outlook - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting in Wuhan on November 6 to promote the cultivation of leading agricultural technology enterprises and enhance the role of agricultural companies in technological innovation [2]. - Dongxing Securities highlighted that the revitalization of the seed industry and the industrialization of biological breeding are crucial for improving planting quality and yield, with a steady advancement expected [2]. - Under policy guidance, leading enterprises in the breeding and planting sectors are anticipated to extend their operations into downstream processing, which could stabilize price fluctuations and enhance profitability [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Guosheng Securities noted that the overall allocation to the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors is currently low, below standard allocation ratios [2]. - For the breeding sector, there is optimism regarding low-cost leading companies as the industry shifts towards high-quality development [2]. - In the breeding support sector (feed, veterinary), there are opportunities for reshaping the market landscape among leading companies post-scale expansion [2]. - The planting sector is expected to maintain stable profitability, while the seed sector, despite lower attention, is entering a critical investment period in Q4, indicating potential for growth [2].

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report is to explore which industries that have underperformed for three consecutive years have a higher probability of reversal in the coming year. It highlights that industries like beauty care, basic chemicals, and social services are currently close to their historical longest periods of underperformance [2][3][10] - The report identifies that defensive industries such as environmental protection, public utilities, and transportation are more likely to exhibit prolonged underperformance due to their weak cyclical nature and low beta characteristics. These industries tend to show a "prolonged decline" feature [2][3][10] - The report indicates that the trend of negative excess returns in public utility sectors is attributed to the small-cap stocks within these sectors, which lack both offensive characteristics during bull markets and stable dividend attributes. The divergence between industry leaders and small-cap stocks has become more pronounced since 2017 [3][24] Group 2 - The report provides statistical analysis from 2007 to 2025, showing that the probability of an industry that has underperformed for three consecutive years winning in the fourth year is inversely related to its historical performance. This suggests that industries with a long history of weak performance are likely to continue this trend [3][10] - The report notes that the current industries that have underperformed for three years and are close to their historical longest underperformance periods include beauty care, basic chemicals, and social services. It also mentions that the food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, social services, and pharmaceutical biotechnology sectors have a higher probability of winning in the fourth year [4][38] - The report emphasizes that the monthly trading volume of public utilities, environmental protection, and transportation has been decreasing as a proportion of total A-share trading volume, indicating a long-term downward trend in liquidity for these sectors [4][24][37]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.97% on November 6, with 19 sectors experiencing gains, led by the non-ferrous metals and electronics sectors, which increased by 3.05% and 3.00% respectively [2] - The media and social services sectors saw the largest declines, with decreases of 1.35% and 1.11% respectively [2] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector fell by 0.36% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 6.174 billion yuan, with 12 sectors experiencing net inflows [2] - The electronics sector had the highest net inflow, totaling 12.224 billion yuan, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw a net inflow of 3.647 billion yuan [2] - Conversely, 19 sectors experienced net outflows, with the media sector leading at a net outflow of 4.261 billion yuan, followed by the pharmaceutical and biological sector with a net outflow of 3.299 billion yuan [2] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector had a net outflow of 1.692 billion yuan, with 105 stocks in the sector [3] - Among these stocks, 46 rose, including one that hit the daily limit, while 52 fell, with two hitting the daily limit down [3] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Haida Group (50.7407 million yuan), Nuofengxin (14.9945 million yuan), and Huilong Co. (12.8319 million yuan) [3] Top Stocks by Capital Inflow - The top stocks in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector by capital inflow included: - Haida Group: +1.99%, 0.52% turnover, 50.7407 million yuan inflow - Nuofengxin: +2.07%, 2.12% turnover, 14.9945 million yuan inflow - Huilong Co.: +1.55%, 2.64% turnover, 12.8319 million yuan inflow [4] Top Stocks by Capital Outflow - The stocks with the highest capital outflow in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector included: - Pingtan Development: -9.97%, 35.16% turnover, -96.412 million yuan outflow - Shennong Seed Industry: -4.41%, 24.75% turnover, -13.27419 million yuan outflow - Muyuan Foods: -0.36%, 0.77% turnover, -8.69476 million yuan outflow [5]

Economic Growth - Five cities, Meizhou, Zhanjiang, Chaozhou, Shanwei, and Qingyuan, have economic growth rates exceeding the provincial average of 4.1%, with rates of 6.0%, 5.0%, 5.0%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively [2] - Meizhou's economic growth accelerated significantly from 3.6% last year to 6.0% this year, maintaining the highest growth rate in the province [2] - Zhanjiang's economic growth also improved from 1.2% last year to 5.0% this year, indicating a strong recovery [2] Industrial Performance - Meizhou's industrial added value increased by 9.0%, with significant contributions from the power, electronic information, and mechanical manufacturing sectors, which grew by 7.7%, 24.7%, and 9.6% respectively [3] - Zhanjiang led the province with a 10.4% increase in industrial added value, driven by the green steel, petrochemical, and energy industries [3] - Other cities like Yunfu, Heyuan, Qingyuan, and Shaoguan also reported industrial growth rates above the provincial average of 3.5% [3] Infrastructure and Investment - Infrastructure investment in cities such as Chaozhou, Jieyang, Zhanjiang, and Meizhou grew significantly, with rates of 28.4%, 17.3%, 14.8%, and 13.9% respectively [5] - Industrial investment in Maoming surged by 30.7%, attributed to the implementation of various industrial projects [5] - Industrial technological upgrades also saw substantial growth, with Maoming, Meizhou, and Yangjiang reporting increases of 67.1%, 48.5%, and 39.0% respectively [5] Agricultural and Consumer Market - Agricultural output in cities like Shaoguan, Chaozhou, and Shanwei grew above the provincial rate of 4.9%, with respective growth rates of 6.2%, 6.2%, and 5.8% [6] - The tourism and consumption sectors showed positive trends, with Shantou's tourist turnover increasing by 8.1% and accommodation facilities seeing a 20.3% rise in overnight visitors [7] - Real estate sales also experienced growth, with Yangjiang's sales area increasing by 15.9% and Chaozhou's real estate development investment rising by 46.6% in September [7]