Core Insights - As of November 28, the total margin financing and securities lending balance on the Beijing Stock Exchange reached 7.527 billion yuan, an increase of 38.79 million yuan from the previous trading day, marking a continuous increase for two consecutive trading days [1] - The stocks with the highest margin financing balances include Jinbo Biological, Shuguang Digital Innovation, and Better Ray, with latest financing balances of 412 million yuan, 342 million yuan, and 309 million yuan respectively [1] - On November 28, 159 stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange received net margin purchases, with 23 stocks having net purchases exceeding one million yuan, led by Haixi Communications with a net purchase of 21.79 million yuan [1][2] Margin Financing Overview - The margin financing balance on November 28 was 7.527 billion yuan, with an increase of 38.84 million yuan from the previous day [1] - The securities lending balance was 498,100 yuan, a decrease of 5,240 yuan from the previous day [1] - The average proportion of the latest margin financing balance to the circulating market value for the stocks with the highest financing balances was 1.38% [1] Industry Performance - The industries with the most stocks receiving net margin purchases over one million yuan were machinery equipment, electric power equipment, and basic chemicals, with four stocks each from machinery and electric power equipment, and three from basic chemicals [2] - On average, stocks with net margin purchases exceeding one million yuan rose by 0.26% on November 28, with notable increases from Tietuo Machinery, Anda Technology, and Gebijia, which rose by 9.16%, 5.31%, and 4.40% respectively [2] - The average turnover rate for stocks with net margin purchases exceeding one million yuan was 4.22%, significantly higher than the average turnover rate of 2.23% for all stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange [2] Notable Stocks - Haixi Communications had a margin financing balance of 89.04 million yuan, with a net purchase increase of 21.79 million yuan, despite a price drop of 3.95% [3] - Nacono's margin financing balance was 171.48 million yuan, with a net purchase increase of 12.58 million yuan and a price increase of 1.19% [3] - Star Map Measurement had a margin financing balance of 73.03 million yuan, with a net purchase increase of 10.14 million yuan and a price increase of 1.73% [3]

Group 1 - As of November 28, the total market financing balance reached 2.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.48 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking four consecutive days of growth in financing balance [1] - The financing balance in the Shanghai market was 1.24 trillion yuan, up by 17.44 million yuan; in the Shenzhen market, it was 1.21 trillion yuan, increasing by 1.43 billion yuan; and in the Beijing Stock Exchange, it was 7.53 billion yuan, rising by 38.84 million yuan [1] - On November 28, a total of 1,680 stocks received net financing purchases, with 387 stocks having net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan, and 20 stocks with net purchases over 100 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The top net financing purchase on November 28 was NewEase, with a net purchase of 1.17 billion yuan, followed by Zhongji Xuchuang and Xiangnong Xinchuan with net purchases of 860 million yuan and 463 million yuan, respectively [2] - In terms of industry, the highest concentration of stocks with net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan was in the electronics, communications, and power equipment sectors, with 6, 3, and 3 stocks respectively [1][2] - The average ratio of financing balance to circulating market value for stocks with significant net purchases was 4.74%, with Yongtai Technology having the highest ratio at 8.02% [2]

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2025 年 11 月 30 日 渐行渐近：转债到期和时间价值衰 减压力分析 ——转债凸性与定价系列报告之四 ⚫ （1）剩余期限已缩短至 2.5 年附近，金融、消费转债"老龄化"严重 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 策 略 - ⚫ 随着时间自然流失，转债市场剩余期限天然存在缩短趋势，而新券发行是改善转债剩余期 限的核心手段，2024 年以来随着转债新发大幅放缓，转债剩余期限明显缩短。截止到 2025/11/21，转债加权剩余期限仅为 2.53 年左右，剩余期限在 2 年以内的转债余额占 比已逼近 40%。参照历史数据来看，如果转债发行短期不明显放量，每自 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to experience an upward breakout in December, initiating a year-end rally, driven by positive economic policy signals from the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings [2][4][14] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is recommended as a favorable combination for capitalizing on the anticipated market rally [2][14][19] - Key investment opportunities include non-bank financials, resource price increases, service consumption, and technology sectors that emphasize self-sufficiency [2][14][19] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings in shaping economic policy, which is expected to be more proactive, enhancing confidence in economic recovery and corporate profitability [4][15][32] - The liquidity environment is projected to remain stable, with an influx of new capital expected in December, particularly from insurance funds and increased household savings, which may lead to a classic year-end rally [4][18][25] - The focus on cyclical sectors such as coal, basic chemicals, and steel, as well as high-end manufacturing like defense and power equipment, is emphasized due to their potential for performance improvement [5][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the market's style will likely shift towards large-cap stocks, with a recommendation for indices such as CSI 300 and Sci-Tech 50, reflecting a preference for stability and potential growth [20][21] - The analysis indicates that sectors with low inventory levels, optimized production capacity, and improving economic conditions should be prioritized for investment [21][22][23] - The anticipated recovery in consumer spending, particularly in service sectors, is highlighted as a critical driver for economic growth, supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption [17][32][33]

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 0.75%, while trading volume decreased by 25.68% compared to the previous week [6][22][30] - The adjustment plan for the North Exchange 50 and the specialized index will take effect on December 15, with three companies entering the North Exchange 50 index: Kai Fa Technology, Ge Bi Jia, and Wan Tong Hydraulic [11][22] - The market sentiment for the North Exchange has significantly weakened, reflected in the declining trading share and reduced correlation with the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices [11][14][15] Group 2 - This week, one new stock, Nan Te Technology, was listed with a first-day price increase of 183.03%, bringing the total number of listed companies on the North Exchange to 285 [37][38] - The North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 82.18 times, with a median of 40.60 times, indicating a valuation adjustment in the market [28][29] - The North Exchange's trading volume was 30.36 billion shares, a decrease of 26.14% from the previous week, with a total trading value of 665.70 billion yuan [30][34] Group 3 - In the North Exchange, 137 stocks rose while 144 fell, resulting in a decline ratio of 0.95, with Tianrun Technology and Tietuo Machinery leading the gains [43][45] - The top five stocks by weekly turnover included Dapeng Industrial and Tietuo Machinery, with significant fluctuations in their trading performance [50][51] - The new third board saw eight new listings and 71 delistings this week, with a total of 5,995 companies currently listed [56][58]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the chemical industry Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a slight recovery in profitability, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 7.54% for the first three quarters of 2025, reversing the declining trend since 2022 [20][23] - The overall revenue for the chemical industry increased by 2.96% year-on-year, reaching 18,663.84 billion yuan [20][23] - The CCPI index averaged 4021.69 points in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.37% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.90%, indicating that product prices remain at a low level [20][23] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit - The chemical industry achieved a revenue of 18,663.84 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, up 2.96% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1,126.98 billion yuan, up 7.54% year-on-year, marking a significant recovery from the previous decline [20][23] - In Q3 2025, the industry recorded a revenue of 6,398.78 billion yuan, which is a slight decrease of 0.08% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 2.27% year-on-year [23] 2. Profitability - The overall gross margin for the chemical industry in Q1-Q3 2025 was 17.10%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.04%, up 0.26 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Specific sub-industries showed significant improvements in profitability, including pesticides (+31,346.91%), fluorochemicals (+124.56%), and adhesives and tapes (+91.69%) [28][30] 3. Cash Flow - The operating cash flow for the chemical industry increased by 20.33% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, indicating strong cash flow management [3] - The net cash ratio has remained above 1 since 2018, reflecting good profitability quality within the industry [3] 4. Investment and R&D - The growth rate of construction projects in the chemical industry has slowed, with a total of 368.08 billion yuan in construction projects as of Q1-Q3 2025, down 16.66% year-on-year [10] - The capital expenditure for the industry in Q3 2025 was 57.919 billion yuan, up 10.81% year-on-year, but the overall trend in capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is declining [10] 5. Debt Servicing Ability - The asset-liability ratio for the chemical industry was 45.21% as of Q3 2025, showing a slight improvement and indicating manageable debt levels [3][9] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: upstream resource assets with strong profitability certainty, supply-side optimization products, low-position leading stocks, and new productivity investment directions during the 14th Five-Year Plan [11][12][14][15]

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound after a significant decline, but the adjustment in technology growth stocks has only partially addressed the value-for-money issue, with the adjustment amplitude over half but time still insufficient [2][4][5] - Historical experience suggests that when technology adjustments reach near the bull-bear boundary, it indicates a mid-term bottom area, but there may be a scenario of "amplitude in place, time insufficient" [2][4][5] - The current adjustment in technology growth stocks has passed the halfway mark, but the time required for recovery is more challenging, relying on industry catalysts and performance verification to digest valuations [2][4][5] Group 2 - The spring market is positioned as a potential rebound within a high-level consolidation phase, with two possible scenarios: a rebound in the high-level consolidation phase or a transition from adjustment to a bottom consolidation phase [5][6] - The spring market may see effective rebounds in offensive assets (technology and cyclical stocks), but upward breakthroughs are difficult to achieve, limiting the upper bound of the spring market [6][7] - The cyclical sector is expected to be the foundational asset for the spring market, with a focus on basic chemicals and industrial technology, while technology stocks may also see a general rebound due to improved short-term value-for-money [7][8] Group 3 - The "bull market two-stage theory" is a typical feature of the A-share bull market cycle, with historical examples indicating that structural bull markets are often followed by comprehensive bull markets after consolidation phases [5][6] - The current market is in a structural bull high position, with expectations for a comprehensive bull market to potentially begin in 2026 due to cyclical improvements in fundamentals and shifts in asset allocation towards equities [5][6] - The report highlights the importance of waiting for industry catalysts and performance verification to restore long-term value-for-money to historical medians, which may signal the restart of an upward trend [2][4][5]

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound after a significant decline, but the adjustment in technology growth stocks regarding cost-performance issues has passed the halfway mark, with insufficient time for recovery [2][5][6] - Historical experience suggests that when technology adjustments reach near the bull-bear boundary, it indicates a mid-term bottom area, but there may be a situation of "sufficient amplitude, insufficient time" [2][5][6] - The current adjustment in technology growth stocks has exceeded half of its amplitude, but the time for recovery remains challenging, requiring industry catalysts and performance validation to digest valuations [5][6][7] Group 2 - The spring market is positioned as a potential rebound within a high-level consolidation phase, with effective rebounds in offensive assets (technology and cyclical stocks) likely to occur, but upward breakout logic may be difficult to realize [6][7][8] - The spring market may either be a rebound in the high-level consolidation phase of the bull market 1.0 or a transition from the adjustment phase to a bottom consolidation phase [6][7][8] - The spring market's upper limit may be constrained, as offensive assets are not yet sufficient to lead the market breakout, and the conditions for technology stocks to break upward are stricter [7][8][9] Group 3 - Short-term small rebounds are expected, with the spring market likely to see effective rebounds driven by a "policy bottom" and cyclical price increases, particularly in basic chemicals and industrial technology [8][9] - The overall adjustment amplitude of technology stocks is likely to be sufficient for a widespread rebound, with a focus on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense [9] - The Hong Kong stock market continues to exhibit high beta characteristics, with the Hang Seng Technology index showing more substantial adjustments and greater rebound elasticity [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 33.30 CNY, compared to the current price of 26.30 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company's main products continue to see growth in both production and sales, with ongoing projects in diol, bio-based new materials, and light stabilizers ensuring long-term growth [2]. - The company demonstrated resilience in Q3 performance, with a slight decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year, but maintained a stable gross margin and net margin [12]. - The company has a rich project reserve and is steadily advancing capacity construction, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,181 million CNY, with a slight increase to 2,220 million CNY in 2024, and further growth to 2,900 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 13.4% from 2024 to 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 250 million CNY in 2023 to 207 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 292 million CNY by 2027 [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.20 CNY in 2023, decreasing to 1.00 CNY in 2024, and then gradually increasing to 1.40 CNY by 2027 [4]. Project Development - The company is actively pursuing the construction of various projects, including a 35,000 tons/year light stabilizer project expected to be completed by December 2024, and a new 25,000 tons/year light stabilizer project to enhance product variety and competitiveness [12]. - Technological innovations are being implemented to improve product performance and reduce reliance on traditional fossil resources, with several patents filed and granted in 2024 [12].