广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 我们先复盘 2025 年中国资产表现与中观基本面的关系。 2025 年全年万得全 A 指数上涨 27.6% ；超额收益较高的行业集中在有色、电子、通信、电力 设备、机械设备、国防军工、基础化工。究其背后，一方面沿着"全球流行叙事"做选择，贵金属、有色金属、 AI 产业链表现亮眼；另一方面，定价亦大体沿着行 业"温差"做选择。以规上工业企业利润表现看，"高端制造 + 关联原材料"景气占优，利润增速领跑的行业是有色、计算机通信电子、交运设备、公用事业等，其 中前三大类行业权益资产均有显著的正收益。 第二， 行业盈利的"温差"又是怎么来的？复盘 2025 年需求端"三驾马车"各自表现：一是消费端，增速较快的消费品类主要有三类：受益于商品"以旧换新"政策 红利的耐用品（通讯器材、家电、家具、文化办公用品、体育娱乐用品）、受贵金属价格影响的金银珠宝类、可能和餐饮存在一定替代关系的粮油食品类；二是出 口端，机电产品和高新技术产品出口同比分别以 8.4% 和 7.5% 的增长领先整体出口，风力发电机组、船舶、飞机、汽车 ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to analyze price-volume data and predict future prices. The model standardizes price-volume data into graphical representations and maps learned features to industry theme indices, such as the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, CSI Machine Tool Index, CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme Index, and CSI Nonferrous Metals Index[78][80][81] - The construction process of the CNN model involves transforming individual stock price-volume data within a specific window into standardized graphical charts. These charts are then input into the CNN for feature extraction and prediction modeling. The learned features are subsequently applied to identify and allocate industry themes[78][80] - The evaluation of the CNN model highlights its ability to capture complex patterns in price-volume data and effectively map these patterns to industry themes. This approach provides a novel perspective for quantitative investment strategies[78][81] - Backtesting results indicate that the CNN model's latest configuration suggests a focus on themes such as petrochemicals, chemicals, machine tools, semiconductors, and nonferrous metals. Specific indices include the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, CSI Machine Tool Index, CSI Semiconductor Material Equipment Theme Index, and CSI Nonferrous Metals Index[80][81]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a spring rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.11% [12] - Short-term market focus is on low-position sectors, particularly cyclical Alpha (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) expanding towards cyclical turning points in construction materials, oil, and steel [1][13] - The current profitability in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil is nearing high levels, indicating increasing short-term resistance for cyclical trends [1][14] Group 2 - Global market risk appetite is on the rise, favoring equity assets, with recommendations for tactical overweight in A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while suggesting underweight in US Treasuries and oil [2][15] - The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to more aggressive economic policies and an expansion of the fiscal deficit [2][15] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and the stable appreciation of the RMB are favorable for China's monetary easing in early 2026 [2][15] Group 3 - The technology sector remains the main focus of the current bull market, driven by the AI wave, with recommendations to pay attention to the application of AI in specific sectors [3][16] - Value sector opportunities are also worth considering, including certain resource products and real estate [3][16] - Consumer services may receive temporary attention as part of the sector allocation strategy [3][16] Group 4 - The market is expected to remain stable with a focus on holding positions through the upcoming holiday, as historical data suggests a less than 50% probability of major index increases in the 20 trading days before the Spring Festival [4][17] - Post-holiday, a new upward momentum is anticipated, with higher probabilities of index increases in the following 20 trading days [4][17] - Key sectors to watch include electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with a focus on both growth and defensive styles depending on market conditions [4][17] Group 5 - The spring rally is expected to enter its second phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 4200 points, reflecting a strong upward trend since late December [5][18] - The market is witnessing a divergence in fund flows, with significant inflows into margin financing while stock-type ETFs are experiencing outflows [5][18] - Attention is needed on macro policy expectations from the upcoming National People's Congress in March and the microeconomic fundamentals from the 2025 annual reports [5][18] Group 6 - The current average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.88 and 53.36, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][20] - The market is expected to focus on performance and industry trends, with a likelihood of maintaining a slight upward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index [8][20] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, batteries, and aerospace [8][20] Group 7 - The market is anticipated to continue its oscillation and consolidation phase, with ETF outflows and a temporary decline in margin financing [9][20] - Despite the market's cooling, overall trading enthusiasm remains, and a slow bull market expectation may lead to fluctuating market sentiments [9][20] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in the TMT sector, robotics, and non-ferrous metals, alongside a focus on banking and insurance due to favorable long-term funding conditions [9][20] Group 8 - The spring rally is expected to persist, with a significant increase in risk appetite in the A-share market, as evidenced by a 17-day consecutive rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [10][21] - The market liquidity environment is improving, supported by favorable external conditions and proactive internal policies [10][21] - Key investment themes include low-valuation high-dividend assets, technology-driven production, and domestic market expansion [10][21] Group 9 - The 2026 economic outlook is positive, with proactive monetary and fiscal policies expected to support stable economic growth and a continued "slow bull" market in A-shares [11][21] - February is anticipated to maintain the momentum of January's focus on technology and non-ferrous sectors, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [11][21] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors related to new productive forces, including AI, aerospace, and agriculture [11][21]

随着三月上旬两会召开，市场对政治局会议的货币财政政策预期或有修正；4 月市场将博弈一季报披露 是否符合预期；外围地缘层面扰动可能影响市场风险偏好。 来源：浙商证券股份有限公司 "春季躁动"可视为全年走势前瞻，其催化主要来自年初政策预期偏强、央行流动性投放、经济数据及财 报真空期等因素叠加。年末结汇+汇率升值与A 股春季行情亦往往形成顺周期共振。我们回溯2005 年-2025 年春季行情发现：春季行情平均持续70天，上证平均涨20%。领涨板块来看，成长、消费和顺 周期风格及有色、机械、计算机、军工、建材、电新、化工、电子等行业占优。本轮"非典型春季躁 动"始于2025年12 月下旬外围不确定性落地、A500 ETF 申购份额上行及商业航天叙事带来的风偏改 善。据统计规律，我们预计这波春季行情会持续到马年春节前后，乐观视角可持续至3 月上旬。资金面 看，3Y+5Y 居民定期存款到期+公募权益基金发行回暖+保险资金增配权益，增量资金有望进一步入 市。配置方面，降温之下市场或以短期震荡+降波为主，季度视角看，我们认为"系统性慢牛"依旧可 期；行业方面，1 月下旬步入A 股年报业绩验证窗口期，板块风格或转向业绩与弹性兼 ...

来源：渤海证券股份有限公司 投资要点： 市场回顾，近5 个交易日（1 月16 日-1 月22 日），重要指数涨跌不一；其中，上证综指收涨0.24%，创 业板指收跌1.17%；风格层面，沪深300收跌0.58%，中证500 收涨2.00%。成交方面显著缩量，两市统计 区间内成交13.80 万亿元，日均成交额降至2.76 万亿元，较前五个交易日的日均成交额减少6834.69 亿 元。行业方面，申万一级行业涨多跌少，其中，建筑材料、石油石化、基础化工行业涨幅居前，而传 媒、计算机、银行行业跌幅居前。 数据方面，国家统计局公布12 月经济数据。投资端，2025 年固定资产投资同比下降3.8%，较2025 年1- 11 月回落1.2 个百分点，投资三项继续走弱。消费端，2025 年12 月社会消费品零售总额同比增速也进 一步放缓，主要受政策退坡和高基数影响。整体而言，2025 年全年经济增速呈现前高后低，全年目标 顺利完成。展望来看，2026 年年初，出口端在结构优化、产品竞争优势以及经贸环境改善的支撑下将 继续成为支撑项；与此同时，年初新一轮政策部署落地，保证了政策的接续性，有望为经济"开门红"提 供助力。 政策方面 ...

Group 1 - The spring market is transitioning to the next phase without disrupting the established path of the spring market performance, characterized by incremental games and favorable conditions for long positions, which lays the foundation for a perfect spring market with widespread profit effects [1][5] - Short-term, the focus is on cyclical Alpha investments expanding towards more cyclical turning points, with deepening exploration of bottom assets and short-term stock price elasticity [1][3] - The overall profit effect is nearing a high point, and the time and space for the post-New Year market rally are gradually limited [1][5] Group 2 - The spring market is essentially an extension and expansion phase of the high valuation area of the 2025 technology structural market, with some investment directions entering a high volatility phase [2][6] - After the spring market, a correction phase is likely, focusing on waiting for clearer clues in the next phase of industrial trends and the digestion of performance to ease valuation and structural contradictions [2][6] - The second half of 2026 is expected to see a new upward phase driven by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, new phases in technology industry trends, and increased visibility of China's influence [2][6] Group 3 - Short-term, cyclical Alpha is the key focus for market exploration of low positions, with the cyclical Alpha market (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) expanding towards cyclical turning points (construction materials, oil, steel) [3][7] - The cyclical Alpha market is showing a significant resonance effect with the expansion of industry ETF scales, becoming a strong momentum direction after industrial trend themes [3][7] - However, the profit effects of non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil are nearing high points, indicating increasing resistance in the short-term cyclical market [3][7] Group 4 - The market is expected to see a rotation in sectors, with opportunities for rebounds in previously strong sectors where profit effects have contracted, such as commercial aerospace and AI applications [2][6] - There is a focus on sectors with relatively low profit effects for rotation and supplementary gains, including high-dividend sectors, pharmaceuticals, and brokerage firms [2][6] - The long-term outlook remains positive for both cyclical Alpha and technology sectors, with a focus on overseas computing chains, AI applications, semiconductors, energy storage, robotics, and commercial aerospace [3][7]

Core Insights - The report indicates that since mid-January, the market's growth rate has slowed due to policy cooling signals, outflows of counter-cyclical funds, and a deceleration in the inflow of leveraged funds. The turnover rate of the entire A-share market peaked at 3.78% on January 14, followed by a decline from that high [2][8] - Historical instances of high turnover rates during bull markets have shown two patterns: style switching, where leading sectors weaken, and style diffusion, where strong sectors continue to perform well and expand into other thriving sectors. The report suggests that if the previous leading sectors were based on themes or policy speculation, they are likely to revert to stronger industrial trends after a high turnover rate [2][8] - The report identifies sectors with strong industrial trends and performance certainty, such as AI computing power, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals, as likely to maintain strong performance post-high turnover. Conversely, sectors driven mainly by thematic catalysts without clear fundamental improvements may face challenges [2][8] Market Changes - The report notes that since late December 2025, the spring market has accelerated due to the resolution of overseas liquidity disturbances and the influx of configuration funds, particularly in industries like AI and commercial aerospace. However, the sustainability of previously strong-performing sectors such as media, military industry, non-ferrous metals, and computers is questioned as the market enters the latter half of the spring rally [8][29] - The report highlights that the leading sectors during previous high turnover periods have included financials, consumer goods, and technology, with shifts observed in 2007, 2009, 2014, 2020, and 2025. For instance, in 2007, the leading sectors shifted from real estate and consumer to financials and resources, while in 2020, the focus moved from consumption to cyclical and new energy sectors [2][8][12] Sector Analysis - The report emphasizes that sectors such as non-ferrous metals, semiconductors, and AI computing power are expected to continue their strong performance due to their solid industrial trends and earnings realization. Additionally, sectors benefiting from price increases, such as basic chemicals and new energy materials, are also highlighted as having potential for improvement [2][8][34] - The report suggests that the financial sector, particularly non-bank financials, is likely to show increasing elasticity as the market conditions improve. The potential for significant inflows from long-term funds, such as insurance and mutual funds, is also noted as a positive factor for the financial sector [34][36] - The report indicates that the consumer sector may see investment opportunities primarily in new consumption models and high-dividend attributes, particularly in service consumption areas that could benefit from policy catalysts and base effect reversals [34][36]

春季行情期间业绩对行业表现的影响 定期报告 线情绪或有过热迹象-华金证券新股周报 2026.1.11 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 24 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用，政策超预期变化，经济修复不及预期。 2026 年 01 月 24 日 策略类●证券研究报告 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 活跃周期在途，但短线情绪过热或暗含局部 波动风险-华金证券新股周报 2026.1.18 春季行情未完，继续聚焦成长 2026.1.17 商业航天行情后续会如何演绎？ 2026.1.17 融 资 保 证 金 调 整 不 改 短 期 慢 牛 走 势 2026.1.14 新一轮活跃周期预计节后已经开启，但极短 复盘历史，绩优行业超额收益与春季行情节奏相关性较强，主线行业调整时绩优行 业可能短暂占优。（1）绩优行业的超额收益与春季行情的节奏相关性较强。一是 ...

Group 1 - The spring market is progressing along a predetermined path, driven by the principle of "steady progress," with a foundation for a perfect spring market established through incremental gaming and favorable conditions for long positions [3][4][5] - The spring market is characterized by a complete rotation of sectors and a broad diffusion of profit effects, with short-term investments in cyclical Alpha expanding towards more cyclical turning points [3][4][5] - The overall profit effect is nearing a high point, which may limit the time and space for subsequent market movements after the initial surge [3][4][5] Group 2 - The spring market is essentially an extension and expansion phase of the high valuation area of the 2025 technology structural market, with some investment directions entering a high volatility phase [5][6] - After the spring market, a consolidation phase is likely, focusing on waiting for clearer clues regarding the next phase of industrial trends and the digestion of performance and valuation [5][6] - The second half of 2026 is expected to see a new upward phase driven by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, new stages in technology industry trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities by residents [5][6] Group 3 - Short-term focus is on cyclical Alpha as a key direction for market exploration of low positions, with resistance likely increasing as profit effects expand to high levels [6][8] - Subsequent rotation directions include opportunities for rebounds in previously strong sectors like commercial aerospace and AI applications, while sectors with relatively low profit effects may see a rotation and recovery [6][8] - The long-term outlook remains positive for both cyclical Alpha and technology sectors, with a focus on sectors such as overseas computing chains, AI applications, semiconductors, energy storage, and commercial aerospace [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities indicates that in Q4 2025, actively managed equity public funds are increasing allocations to technology manufacturing (communication, automotive, machinery), cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, chemicals, construction materials), service consumption, and non-bank financials, while reducing allocations to media, computing, military, real estate, and pharmaceuticals [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Allocation Trends - Actively managed equity funds are embracing AI and positioning for recovery, with significant increases in cyclical sectors [1]. - Non-ferrous metals saw a 2.1 percentage point increase in allocation to 8.0%, reaching a historical high, with a configuration coefficient of 1.7 times [1]. - Basic chemicals, automotive, construction materials, and steel also received increased allocations, with respective holding ratios of 3.2%, 5.1%, 0.7%, and 0.4% [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance and Adjustments - Non-bank financials, despite underperforming in 2025, received an allocation increase to 2.4%, which is at the 33rd percentile historically [2]. - The communication sector's allocation rose by 1.8 percentage points to 11.1%, marking a historical high, with a configuration coefficient exceeding 3 times [3]. - The real estate sector saw a decline in allocation to 0.3%, with a configuration coefficient of 0.24 times, both at historical lows [4]. Group 3: Fund Performance and Market Outlook - The overall positions of ordinary stock, mixed equity, and flexible allocation funds decreased by 1.2, 1.4, and 1.4 percentage points to 88.3%, 86.7%, and 76.3%, respectively, while still remaining at high levels [5]. - The median net asset value increase for actively managed equity public funds in 2025 was 25.8%, which is lower than the growth of the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 [5]. - The net redemption pressure for actively managed funds has eased, with a total redemption of 132 billion units in Q4 2025, a decrease from Q3 [5]. Group 4: ETF Market Dynamics - The total scale of stock ETFs reached nearly 3.8 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, with a holding market value ratio of 3.9%, both hitting new highs [6]. - In Q4 2025, significant inflows were observed in industry ETFs related to brokers, pharmaceuticals, robotics, and non-ferrous metals [6]. Group 5: Manager Insights and Sector Comparisons - Fund managers are optimistic about sectors with clear industrial trends, such as computing power, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, energy storage lithium batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, military trade, and commercial aerospace [7]. - Based on the PB-ROE framework, sectors like non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and AI applications are seen as attractive for allocation due to upward profit expectations and reasonable valuations [7].