Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily focus on the bond market and the impact of macroeconomic factors, particularly related to China and the U.S. relations. Core Points and Arguments - The meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders has positively influenced market sentiment, enhancing risk appetite, which benefits equity markets and exchange rates but may pressure the bond market. The expected impact on 10-year and 30-year treasury yields is minimal, within 1 basis point [1][4]. - The central bank's monetary policy report for Q1 has reinterpreted the reasons for pausing treasury bond transactions in January, suggesting a potential resumption of trading in Q2, particularly during the peak issuance period in May, which could favor short- to medium-term interest rates [1][5]. - The view remains bullish on the bond market in the medium term, with April treasury futures filling gaps. May and June are seen as favorable periods for buying, with aggressive investors encouraged to enter early, while conservative investors should wait for market adjustments [1][7]. - Following the recent dual rate cuts, yields on bonds with maturities of 10 years or less have decreased, and treasury futures have risen, although 30-year treasury futures have shown limited movement. The impact on the stock and bond markets is considered limited compared to previous rate cuts [1][10][11]. - China's export data exceeded expectations, but exports to the U.S. fell significantly by over 20%. The market's reaction to this news has been muted, indicating a need for further observation of long-term effects [1][13]. - The market has priced in expectations for interest rate cuts, with potential for a new easing cycle if definitive policies are announced in the coming days. Further cuts in reserve requirements are anticipated in the second half of the year [1][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade negotiations is expected to continue affecting the market, with a cautious short-term outlook for equity markets but a long-term optimistic view, particularly for the home appliance sector [2][19]. - The recent dual rate cuts have led to a significant impact on the bond market, particularly favoring short- to medium-term bonds, while the long end of the yield curve remains under pressure [3][8]. - The relationship between policy rates and 10-year treasury yields has shown signs of deviation from historical norms, indicating a need for careful monitoring of future interest rate movements [1][18]. - The overall sentiment suggests a cautious optimism for the bond market in Q2, with a recommendation to remain vigilant regarding potential adjustments in investment strategies [1][19].

Market Overview - The overall market showed an upward trend last week (May 5 to May 9), with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3342.00 points, a weekly increase of 1.92% [2] - The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices rose by 1.93% and 2.00% respectively, while the CSI 1000 index performed notably well with a 2.22% increase [2] - The market structure remains differentiated, with small growth stocks and micro-cap stocks performing actively, while some large-cap technology indices experienced pullbacks [2] Industry Performance - All sectors showed positive performance last week, with the average increase of Wind's first-level indices at 1.87% and 95% of Wind's top 100 concept indices rising [10] - The defense, military, communication, and power equipment sectors performed particularly well, with increases of 6.33%, 4.96%, and 4.02% respectively [10] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 15 funds were issued last week, including 13 equity funds, 1 mixed fund, and 1 bond fund, with a total issuance of 6.345 billion units [3][4] - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 0.74% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 1.00% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 1.06% [6] Global Asset Review - Global asset markets showed significant divergence last week, with US stocks under pressure due to investor concerns about economic outlook and Federal Reserve monetary policy [3] - European markets exhibited mixed results, while Asia-Pacific markets, including the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng Index, showed varying degrees of gains, indicating positive signals in the region [3] Bond Market Overview - The bond market was active last week, with the convertible bond index rising by 1.32% [12] - The 10-year government bond futures saw a slight increase of 0.01%, while the 30-year government bond futures decreased by 0.39% [12] Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume of A-shares rebounded, exceeding 1.1 trillion yuan, with a peak close to 1.5 trillion yuan on Wednesday [7]

大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/09 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/08 | 4.380 | 4.545 | 3.239 | 2.532 | 3.582 | 3.174 | 0.253 | 3.332 | | 最新变化 | 0.109 | 0.087 | 0.045 | 0.059 | 0.035 | 0.046 | 0.057 | 0.038 | | 一周变化 | 0.170 | 0.037 | 0.003 | 0.013 | -0.045 | -0.006 | -0.135 | -0.015 | | 一月变化 | 0.194 | -0.069 | -0.158 | -0.078 | -0.283 | -0.168 | -0.153 | -0.201 | | 一 ...

Group 1 - Jeffrey Gundlach expresses concerns about market uncertainty due to economic weakness and rising long-term interest rates, alongside increasing unemployment rates [1][2][6] - Unemployment rates are above both the 36-month and 12-month moving averages, which typically indicate a recession [2][6] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are rising despite economic weakness, with daily interest payments on debt reaching $4 billion [1][7] Group 2 - Gundlach predicts that gold could rise to $4,000, driven by geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and existing high debt levels, viewing gold as a true monetary asset [1][2][10] - The current spot price of gold is approximately $3,342.36 per ounce, indicating a potential increase of 19.68% to reach Gundlach's target [2] - The S&P 500 index support level is projected to drop from 5,600 to around 4,600, suggesting significant downside potential [1][5][11] Group 3 - The yield spread between low-quality junk bonds (CCC-rated) and higher-rated bonds (BB-rated) has widened beyond its 200-day moving average, signaling potential economic issues [2][8] - Investors are favoring more liquid assets over long-term bonds, anticipating a steepening yield curve [2][8] - The market is currently characterized as risk-averse, with gold showing stability amidst volatility in risk assets and some bond markets [9]

| | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/07 | 4.297 | 4.512 | 3.257 | 2.539 | 3.626 | 3.191 | 0.280 | 3.369 | | 最新变化 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | 一周变化 | 0.060 | 0.034 | 0.070 | 0.071 | 0.053 | 0.070 | -0.099 | 0.079 | | 一月变化 | 0.267 | -0.007 | -0.120 | -0.111 | -0.145 | -0.112 | -0.162 | -0.088 | | 一年变化 | -0.346 | 0.179 | 0.167 | ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market perceives a decrease in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June, dropping from 73.7% four weeks ago to 30.2% last week [1] - U.S. non-farm payroll data for April exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in gold prices [1] - If a recession occurs in the U.S. in the second half of the year (excluding stagflation), gold prices may be negatively impacted [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Recommended strategies include shorting base metals and U.S. stocks, going long on silver, holding gold, and maintaining cash positions during market stabilization or rebound [1] - The risk of interest rate cuts hinges on persistent inflation in April and May, which may force the Federal Reserve to prioritize the dollar over economic and employment concerns [1] Group 3: Global Gold Demand and Supply - Global gold demand increased by 1% year-on-year to 1,206 tons in Q1, with central bank demand at 244 tons, remaining at the three-year quarterly average [2] - Investment demand for gold, including ETFs, surged by 170% year-on-year to 552 tons [2] - Despite a 38% increase in gold prices over the past 12 months, global mine supply only rose by 0.3% or 2.3 tons, indicating a lag in supply response to high prices [2] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Economic Policies - The geopolitical risks are expected to escalate significantly over the next two years [3] - Trump's strategy of increasing tariffs aims to influence consumer behavior while simultaneously seeking interest rate cuts to alleviate public financial burdens [3] - The relationship between tariffs and inflation is complex, as tariffs increase costs without directly correlating to currency depreciation [3]

❑ 五一假期期间全球股票市场行情突出 5 月 1 日至 2 日内地金融市场休市，全球其他金融市场正常进行交易，整体来看： 科技股主线行情表现突出，恒生科技与纳斯达克分别领涨港股及美股市场，带动 欧洲及其他亚洲股票市场整体收涨。债券市场行情分化，2 年美债、10 年美债收 益率分别上行 23BP 及 16BP，日债收益率下行，德债收益率基本持平。美元指数 有所反弹，兑日元、欧元、英镑等主要货币均有所升值，但美元兑离岸人民币出 现一定幅度贬值迹象。商品市场黄金、白银价格再度出现较大幅度下跌。 ❑ 五一假期要闻汇总 美国 4 月 PCE 同比增长 2.3%，为 2024 年 10 月以来新低，小幅超过预期值 2.2%， 环比零增长持平预期。更为市场关注的核心通胀层面，4 月核心 PCE 同比增长 2.6% 持平预期，环比零增长低于预期，指向核心通胀边际进一步降温，关税冲击对美 国通胀的影响暂未显现。4 月新增非农就业 17.7 万人，预期 13 万人，4 月失业率 录得 4.2%，与前值及预测值持平，平均时薪同比及环比增速均较前值出现放缓迹 象，显示美国劳动力市场依旧保持较强韧性。抢出口效应带动下，美国 2025 ...

中国休假第一天，全球市场出现"一切皆涨，唯有黄金下跌"的景象： 而在此之前，央视旗下社交媒体账号玉渊谭天援引不具名消息人士表示，美国近来已通过多种渠道主动 与中国接触，希望就关税问题进行谈判。 但细看美股走势，似乎已经提前消化了中美贸易形势好转的消息——因为其开盘即涨，但随后逐步回吐 涨幅。特朗普多次在公开场合释放"对华友好"信号，最初阶段能极大提振市场风险偏好；但随着次数增 多，市场对同类表态的敏感度下降，所谓"新闻免疫力"就逐渐形成。市场在消息刚出时抢跑，但真正看 到落地细节不足时就回落。 还有一个坏消息值得关注。市场突然意识到对美联储的降息预期过高，开始解除降息押注。交易员预计 6月降息的可能性为58%，低于周四早些时候的68%。然而昨晚公布的数据显示，美国上周初请失业人 士大增、4月ISM制造业PMI超预期下滑，这本应增强"降息必要性"。如果市场完全解除6月降息押注， 那么流动性边际将迅速收紧——资金成本抬升，对股市、信贷市场以及新兴市场都是压力。换句话说， 这种"解除降息押注"本身就可能成为下一轮下跌的导火索。 世界仍旧面临一场惊涛骇浪。（来源：华尔街情报圈） 本文源自：金融界 - 美国股市全线上涨 ...

研究中心宏观团队 2025/04/30 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/29 | 4.174 | 4.479 | 3.217 | 2.496 | 3.606 | 3.162 | 0.355 | 3.321 | -0.036 | -0.029 | -0.019 | -0.023 | -0.021 | -0.018 | -0.033 | - ...

一、债券市场发行情况 3月份，债券市场共发行各类债券87356.6亿元。国债发行12786.3亿元，地方政府债券发行9788.0亿元，金融债 券发行10226.4亿元，公司信用类债券¹发行13335.2亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行186.0亿元，同业存单发行 40686.2亿元。 截至3月末，债券市场托管余额183.1万亿元。其中，银行间市场托管余额161.8万亿元，交易所市场托管余额 21.3万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额35.3万亿元，地方政府债券托管余额49.8万亿元，金融债券托管余额 41.5万亿元，公司信用类债券托管余额33.1万亿元，信贷资产支持证券托管余额1.1万亿元，同业存单托管余额 21.2万亿元。商业银行柜台债券托管余额1649.0亿元。 二、债券市场运行情况 3月份，银行间债券市场现券成交36.5万亿元，日均成交1.7万亿元，同比减少6.7%，环比增加22.1%。单笔成 交量在500 万 -5000万元的交易占总成交金额的49.8%，单笔成交量在9000万元以上的交易占总成交金额的 44.0%，单笔平均成交量4198.0万元。交易所债券市场现券成交3.6万亿元，日均成交1718.4亿元。 ...