沪铜日内持续偏强震荡，收盘上涨0.64%。期市氛围偏暖，周边品种普遍上行，沪铜走势受到提振，不 过最近全球铜显性库存整体回升，期价涨幅有限。 最近铜矿端再传扰动，由于持续近三周的劳资罢工，位于智利北部的Capstone Copper公司旗下的 Mantoverde铜金矿的生产已经停止，其海水淡化工厂关闭。不过铜矿商自由港麦克莫伦公司周四表示， 旗下旗舰矿山、全球第二大铜矿Grasberg的约85%产能，将于今年下半年恢复生产。当前铜矿端偏紧状 态延续已久，国内冶炼厂生产压力增加，但产量仍保持扩张状态，最近铜价对矿端干扰的反应不大。 昨日LME铜库存增加8850吨至168250吨，为近八个月高位，注册仓单同步增加，注销占比回落。周中 国内部分地区到货有限，且下游逢低采购，国内精铜社会库存并未继续累积。新湖期货表示，昨日 LME库存大增8850吨，其中美国新奥尔良库存增加5875；由于COMEX近月2601合约低于LME铜价，套 利空间驱动下，美国市场的铜被交仓到LME新奥尔良仓库；但由于远期COMEX铜价仍高于LME，因此 美国市场大量的库存仅是在不同的仓库中流转，并不会流出至非美市场；非美市场铜库存压力并不大 ...

Group 1 - The stock of Tongling Nonferrous Metals has reached its daily limit, with a turnover rate of 7.79% and a transaction amount of 5.757 billion yuan, showing a fluctuation of 9.58% [2] - Institutional investors net bought 3.9323 million yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect saw a net purchase of 14.2 million yuan, and the total net selling by brokerage seats was 11.6 million yuan [2] - The stock was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange due to a daily price deviation of 8.80%, with the top five trading departments contributing a total transaction of 1.394 billion yuan, including a net purchase of 29.4887 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The latest margin trading data shows that the stock's margin balance is 2.515 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 2.504 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 10.6305 million yuan [3] - Over the past five days, the financing balance has increased by 53.3937 million yuan, representing a growth of 2.18%, while the securities lending balance has risen by 515,400 yuan, a 5.09% increase [3] - Specific trading data on January 23 indicates that the top buying and selling departments included the Shenzhen Stock Connect and various institutional seats, with significant buy and sell amounts recorded [3]

市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-22，沪铜主力合约开于 100550元/吨，收于 100700元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.57%，昨日夜盘 沪铜主力合约开于 99，800元/吨，收于 100，270 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.43%。 现货情况： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM1#电解铜现货对当月合约报价贴水260至80元/吨，均价贴水170元/吨，较前一日 小幅上涨10元/吨。现货价格区间为99740-100400元/吨。早盘期铜呈"W"型震荡走势，盘中低点探至 99940元/吨，高点触及100780元/吨，最终收于100270元/吨。市场成交逐步回暖，好铜及平水铜报价有 所调整，部分稀缺湿法货源报价坚挺。下游采购情绪回升，持货商挺价意愿增强，预计明日现货报价将 保持相对稳定。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美国总统特朗普表示，正在推进中的格陵兰岛协议将赋予美国"一切想要的军事进入 权"。特朗普还威胁称，如果欧洲国家因其与格陵兰岛相关的关税威胁而抛售美国资产，美方将进行"强 烈报复"。经济数据 ...

1月21日（周三），美国纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜库存首次突破50万吨，受明年起或开征进口关税的预期持续发酵影响，大量铜正持续流入美国市 场。 该交易所周三公布的数据显示，截至1月20日，COMEX认证仓库的铜库存为554,904短吨（约合50.34万吨），较1月16日增长1.3%。 荷兰国际集团（ING）分析师Ewa Manthey在周三的线上研讨会中表示："在关税政策落地明确前，美国市场大概率将持续吸引铜流入，这一趋势至少会延续 至2026年年中。受当前定价结构及关税政策的多重不确定性影响，短期内铜从美国流出的可能性微乎其微。" 她补充道："实际来看，美国的铜库存如今已俨然成为一种战略储备--铜持续入库，却鲜有流入市场流通。" 纽约商品交易所一名发言人表示，该交易所旗下仓库的铜仓储容量为110万短吨，这意味着库存仍有充足的扩容空间。不过交易商称，当前从伦交所运往纽 商所的铜套利窗口已收窄，甚至完全关闭。 今年1月，美国境内的伦敦金属交易所仓库迎来去年9月中旬以来的首批铜入库，目前新奥尔良仓库的铜注册仓单量达1,525吨。 交易商表示，随着纽商所的铜套利窗口关闭，流入伦交所旗下纽约仓库的铜货量或出现增长 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 21 日 铜：市场避险，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 101,230 | 0.05% | 99930 | -1.28% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,797 | -1.47% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 335,565 | -128,098 | 634,562 | 7,401 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 27,891 | 7,244 | 326,000 | -589 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 148,193 | -4,462 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 156,300 | 8,875 | 30.58% | -2.35% ...

与此同时，空头头寸持有者需交付实物铜进行交割。隔日价差的飙升意味着，如果他们选择展期而非交 割，将面临巨额亏损。此次价差升至每吨100美元，达到了2021年重大挤仓事件以来的最高水平，当时 LME被迫紧急修改规则以维持市场秩序。 结构性短缺支撑长期溢价 伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜现货价格近日大幅飙升，对远期合约的溢价急剧扩大。一项受密切关注的关键 短期价差——隔日价差(Tom/next)一度飙升至每吨100美元，创下自2021年历史性供应危机以来的最高水 平，凸显出现货市场的极度紧张情绪。 价差剧烈波动，市场结构扭曲 本周三到期的铜合约，较次日到期合约的溢价(即现货溢价结构)一度触及100美元。该价差在本周一还 处于小幅贴水状态，其飙升幅度在1998年有记录以来极为罕见。这为近期本就火热的LME铜市增添了 新的动荡。本月早些时候，铜价曾飙升至每吨13,400美元以上的历史高位。 这一急剧波动发生在LME主要一月合约于周三到期前夕。隔日价差为交易者调整这些即将到期头寸提 供了最后机会。LME数据显示，截至上周五，有三个独立实体持有一月合约至少30%的未平仓多头头 寸。若持有至到期，它们有权提取超过13万吨铜—— ...

Group 1 - The spot copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged to a significant premium over future contracts, reaching the highest level since the historic supply tightness in 2021, with a premium of $100 per ton for contracts expiring Wednesday compared to those expiring the next day [2][3] - The recent spike in the backwardation phenomenon indicates rising spot demand, driven by production stoppages and increased copper exports to the U.S., leading to tight supply in other regions [3] - Analysts and traders expect severe structural supply constraints in the copper market, with most monthly price differentials showing backwardation until the end of 2028, potentially depleting global inventories and driving prices higher [4] Group 2 - As of last Friday, three different institutions held at least 30% of the long positions in the January contracts, which could yield over 130,000 tons of copper if held to expiration, exceeding the current spot supply in LME warehouses [3] - The increase in LME copper inventory by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons was attributed to inflows from Asian warehouses and a small inflow to the New Orleans warehouse, despite the price differential volatility having minimal impact on the three-month benchmark contract [4] - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: rising dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [5]

Group 1 - The LME copper spot price has significantly risen compared to future contract prices, indicating that traders may be extracting large amounts of inventory from the exchange's warehouses [1] - The premium for the copper contract expiring on Wednesday was $64 higher than the next day's contract, a market condition known as backwardation, suggesting an increase in immediate demand [1] - This price movement is among the highest levels recorded since 1998, reflecting increased volatility in the LME copper market [1] Group 2 - As of Thursday, three independent institutions held at least 30% of the open interest in the January contracts, which could allow them to withdraw over 160,000 tons of copper, exceeding the available inventory in the LME network [4] - The surge in the Tom/next spread indicates that short position holders may face significant losses if they do not roll over their contracts [4] Group 3 - The current market conditions signal a more severe structural supply constraint in the global copper industry, with many analysts predicting a deep shortage by the end of 2028 [5] - Although global copper inventories are currently sufficient, they are heavily concentrated in U.S. warehouses, leading to record shipments to the U.S. due to anticipated tariff changes [5] Group 4 - The recent increase in LME copper inventory, with an addition of 8,875 tons, brings the total to 156,300 tons, driven by inflows into New Orleans and Baltimore warehouses [8] - The fluctuations in the price spread have had minimal impact on the three-month copper contract, which experienced a maximum daily drop of 1.4% due to broader market sell-offs [8]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper market is experiencing significant volatility, with spot prices surging above futures prices, indicating large-scale inventory withdrawals and a conflict between substantial long positions held by three entities and severely insufficient deliverable inventory [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Tom/next spread, a key indicator of immediate demand in the LME storage network, has seen a dramatic increase, with the spread rising by $64, marking one of the largest daily increases since 1998 [1]. - As of last Thursday, three independent entities held long positions that accounted for at least 30% of the open interest in the January contract, which translates to over 160,000 tons of copper, exceeding the total deliverable inventory in the LME storage network [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The current situation reflects a "physical squeeze" where short sellers are compelled to either find physical copper for delivery or incur high costs to roll over their positions [2]. - The long-term outlook for the copper market indicates structural supply tightness extending to 2028, with most monthly spreads showing backwardation, suggesting expectations of future supply shortages [3]. Group 3: Geographic Inventory Imbalance - Although global copper inventories are currently at sufficient levels, there is a significant regional imbalance, with a large concentration of inventory in U.S. warehouses due to previous tariff policies [6]. - Recent increases in LME copper inventory, including a rise of 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, were primarily driven by deliveries from Asian warehouses and small inflows into New Orleans [6].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of investment copper bars is gaining attention as copper prices reach new highs, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like artificial intelligence and renewable energy [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Copper Bars - Investment copper bars with a purity of 999.9 are being introduced, primarily in 1000g specifications, priced between 180 to 280 yuan [1]. - The popularity of investment copper bars is evident on social media and e-commerce platforms, with products like "wealth copper bars" priced at 149.88 yuan for 1000g [3]. Group 2: Copper Price Trends - Copper prices are projected to rise significantly, with forecasts indicating a potential increase to 13,000 USD/ton in early 2026, driven by strong demand in energy transition and AI sectors [8]. - The price of copper is expected to experience a 34.34% increase in 2025, with the year-end price projected at 99,180 yuan/ton [3][4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current surge in copper prices is attributed to tight global supply, trade flow restructuring due to U.S. tariffs, and increased demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy [4]. - Analysts predict a refined copper shortage of approximately 330,000 tons in 2026, with significant price implications [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Most investment banks maintain a bullish outlook on copper prices, with some predicting a peak of 15,000 USD/ton in the second quarter of 2026 [8]. - However, some analysts, like Goldman Sachs, caution that the rapid price increase may suppress market demand, forecasting a potential decline to 11,200 USD/ton by the fourth quarter of 2026 [9].