特朗普第二次入主白宫后，立即将关税作为自己的主要政策工具。2025年2月1日，他签署了行政命令，对所有中国进口商品加征10%的关税，名义上的理由 是针对芬太尼问题。4日，关税正式生效，随后取消了小额免税通道。到3月初，税率更是提高到了20%。4月2日，特朗普推出所谓的解放日措施，给中国商 品额外加征34%的关税，叠加后，有些商品的关税一度攀升到125%以上。面对美国的强硬姿态，中国并没有采取同等规模的反制，而是在4月4日宣布对美 国的部分农产品和能源品加征关税，同时实施出口许可证管理，针对包括钐、钆、铽、镝等稀土元素，直接卡住了美国国防和高端制造所依赖的关键资源。 相比美国的硬碰硬，中国则采取了更为精准的反制手段，同时加快了产业升级的步伐。稀土管制一出，美国洛克希德·马丁等军工企业立刻遭遇了磁铁和合 金的短缺，F-35战机的相关部件生产也受到了影响。与此同时，中国的科技企业却取得了不小的进步，2025年全年，中芯国际的营收创下了超过93亿美元的 纪录，7纳米制程的良品率稳步提升，深紫外多重曝光技术的突破使得量产达到了新高度。长江存储的新一代闪存产品持续升级，华为的5G基站核心模块逐 步转向国内供应链，即便外部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a recovery post-Spring Festival, driven by three main investment themes that are supported by policy, demand recovery, and performance realization [1][8]. Group 1: Market Overview - Historical data indicates that the probability of the A-share market initiating a spring rally after the Spring Festival exceeds 70%, with an expected increase in market risk appetite due to policy expectations from the March Two Sessions [1]. - This year's market is anticipated to be structurally strong rather than a broad-based rally, focusing on specific investment themes that align with policy support and demand recovery [1]. Group 2: Investment Themes - **Theme 1: New Productive Forces (AI, High-end Manufacturing, Semiconductors)** - This theme is emphasized by regulatory bodies and is a key focus in brokerage reports, with high-tech manufacturing PMI remaining in the expansion zone and a significant increase in orders related to new productive forces [4]. - The theme combines policy support, technological implementation, and capital concentration, with a strong rebound expected post-holiday [4]. - **Theme 2: Consumption Recovery (Home Appliance Replacement, Cultural Tourism, Dining)** - The consumption recovery is evidenced by increased sales of smart wearable devices and green home appliances during the Spring Festival, with retail sales in related categories showing double-digit growth [6]. - The ongoing "old-for-new" policy in home appliances further strengthens the certainty of performance in this sector, making it a defensive investment option [6]. - **Theme 3: High Prosperity in New Energy (Photovoltaics, Energy Storage)** - The new energy sector, a core part of the national energy strategy, has seen its valuations return to reasonable levels after adjustments, with domestic photovoltaic installations and energy storage projects exceeding expectations [7]. - The sector is expected to experience valuation recovery as industry chain prices stabilize and performance reports are released, particularly for leading companies with robust cash flows [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on the identified main themes and avoid frequent stock changes, as patience and the right selection are crucial for capitalizing on post-holiday market opportunities [8].

周五（2月20日）， 美国最高法院裁定特朗普的关税政策违法， 令美股低开高走， 三大指数集体收涨。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.47%，报49625.97点；标普500指数涨0.69%，报6909.51点；纳斯达克综合指数涨0.9%，报22886.07点。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 新大都 | 新城區 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道瑪斯指数 | 49625.97 | +230.81 | 0.47% | | 标普500指数 | 6909.51 | +47.62 | 0.69% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 ♥ 22886.07 | | +203.34 | 0.90% | 当天，美国联邦最高法院大法官以6比3的结果维持下级法院裁决，认定美国总统特朗普援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施关税政 策超出了其法定权限。 尽管华尔街先前已普遍预期最高法院会做出不利于特朗普政府的裁决，但仍有一些问题悬而未决，例如已征收关税是否退还及如何退还，这 一问题可能需由下级法院进一步裁定。 FBB Capital Partners高级研究分析师Michael Brenner表示："下级法院将不得不弄 ...

Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a low-volatility trend with a long-term decline in market volatility [2] - The upward trend in the stock market is not yet over, indicating further potential for growth [2] - A-shares are anticipated to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with the importance of fundamentals increasing after a valuation adjustment [2][3] Capital Flow - The demand for asset allocation among domestic residents has been activated by profit effects, with various medium- to long-term funds entering the market, suggesting an active capital flow in 2026 [2][3] - Incremental capital is expected to cover a broader range, driven by increasing motivation among individual investors to enter the market [3] - Public funds and insurance capital are likely to continue increasing their allocation to equity assets, reshaping global capital flow logic [4] Key Investment Sectors - Key sectors to focus on include: - Non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [2] - Technology growth, manufacturing expansion, cyclical consumption transformation, and U.S. stocks [2] - New energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military industry, and machinery [3] - AI, new energy, military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, price increase chains, and overseas expansion chains [4] - Technology innovation themes and consumption sectors [4] - TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, with potential shifts towards cyclical and financial sectors [4]

智通财经APP获悉，有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，华尔街超级金融巨头摩根大通(JPM.US)已 任命一组来自美国政府的资深领导人，以加速推进其进入与美国国家安全和经济韧性相关的核心行业的 重大战略投资规划。该金融巨头于去年10月推出了为期10年且规模高达1.5万亿美元的"安全与韧性倡 议"(简称SRI)雄心壮志，旨在主导并加速促进半导体、量子计算、国防军工、能源、稀土、人工智能和 关键基础设施等关键行业的大规模融资和投资。 此前在2025年10月，摩根大通重磅宣布 "安全与韧性计划(Security and Resiliency Initiative)"——十年投 资总量1.5万亿美元，用于"促进、融资和投资"关乎美国经济与国家安全的核心产业。该项计划的重点 涵盖四大最关键方向：美国核心供应链与先进制造(含稀土等关键矿产、医药前体、机器人等)、国防与 航天、能源独立与多元化韧性、最前沿与核心战略类技术趋势(AI、核聚变、网络安全以及量子计算 等)。 凯文·奎因(Kevin Quinn)加入担任SRI美国核心前沿和战略技术负责人，他此前曾在美国商务部的CHIPS 项目(即芯片法案项目)办公室工作，且担任核 ...

Group 1 - The core mechanism of the Hang Seng Tech Index is its quarterly rebalancing system, which allows for dynamic optimization of component structure, enabling the index to continuously track industry trends and provide a forward-looking technology allocation tool for investors [1] - The "fast inclusion" rule allows new stocks to be added to the index within 10 trading days if their market capitalization ranks in the top 10 among existing constituents, ensuring the index captures the benefits of large tech IPOs promptly [2] - The index has evolved from being dominated by internet services to a more balanced representation of both soft and hard technologies, with significant changes in component weightings reflecting shifts in the Chinese tech industry [3] Group 2 - The index has seen a gradual decrease in the weight of platform economy stocks while increasing the representation of hard tech companies like semiconductor firms, with hard tech now accounting for 20% of the index [3] - Recent adjustments have included electric vehicle companies, raising the automotive sector's weight to 15%, and AI-related stocks, further increasing the weight of semiconductors and AI hardware to 25% [3] - The index employs a "survival of the fittest" mechanism, removing underperforming stocks and maintaining high profitability and growth quality among its constituents, with removed stocks underperforming the index by an average of 15 percentage points in the following year [4] Group 3 - The index limits the weight of any single constituent to 8% and the top five constituents to a combined 40%, which helps mitigate risks associated with volatility in leading stocks [4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is characterized by a balanced allocation between soft and hard technologies, with internet platform companies comprising over 50% of the index, while hard tech includes electric vehicle and semiconductor firms [5] - The index's structure captures the resilience of the consumer internet while also positioning itself for growth in the industrial internet space [5]

全球贸易格局在2026年初已经显现出明显的重塑迹象，美国的关税政策持续施压于依赖出口的国家，这 让韩国这样的经济体面临多重考验。韩国经济在2025年仅增长0.8%，早期甚至出现收缩，主要因为出 口导向型产业遭遇瓶颈。 特朗普政府从2025年4月开始对韩国商品征收25%的关税，虽然7月谈判后降至15%，但2026年1月又威 胁升回25%，直接影响汽车、半导体和制药等关键出口品类。韩国对美国的出口份额从2024年的4%降 到2025年的3.6%，排名滑至第九，被台湾地区和爱尔兰超越。 这种政策不确定性让韩国企业难以规划供应链，投资信心受挫。日本也在中亚地区加大布局，2025年12 月东京峰会承诺五年内投资3万亿日元，相当于190亿美元，针对稀土、石油和基础设施，以稳固影响 力。但这些举措难以逆转市场流失，因为消费者偏好转向性价比更高的选项。 这些数据反映出乌鲁木齐从单纯资源输出转向高附加值制造，甘泉堡地区形成完整的新材料产业链，高 新区则专注生物医药和高端装备扩产。能源成本优势明显，风光资源丰富，让本地工厂在生产效率上领 先资源短缺的日韩企业。 阿拉山口通行中欧班列8165列，增长6.3%，机场国际货运线达36条 ...

最近在美国一个财经论坛上，有人抛出一个问题：如果中国哪天不再向美国出售任何商品，中国还能继续繁荣吗？这话听上去像是在替中国担心，但细想 一下，更像是在试探中国的底气。 中美做生意这么多年，关系确实复杂。一边是合作，一边是摩擦。美国是中国的重要出口市场，这一点谁都承认。但说到"离不开"，事情就没那么绝对 了。2025年，中国对美出口比上一年明显下滑，金额从四千多亿美元降到两千多亿美元。原因很直接，美国提高关税，税率一层层往上叠。 表面看，是给中国商品加压。实际上，美国进口商要承担成本，美国消费者买单的价格也水涨船高。贸易结构并没有因此发生根本改变，只是部分订单转 向其他国家。商品还在流动，只是路径换了。 再看产业层面。美国从2018年起不断收紧芯片和技术出口限制，近几年还扩大范围，涉及先进计算领域。本意是卡住关键环节。但压力反而推动国内企业 加快研发。半导体行业规模持续扩大，国产芯片占比逐步提升。虽然仍有差距，但趋势已经出现变化。 很多企业过去习惯依赖进口设备和核心技术，如今不得不补短板。研发投入增加，产业链逐渐完善。这种过程并不轻松，但一旦形成体系，抗风险能力就 会增强。外部环境越复杂，内部调整越加速。 国际 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia's recent investment adjustments, particularly the increase in stake in Nokia, highlight a strategic shift towards enhancing its "physical AI" strategy, focusing on the synergy between computing power and network infrastructure [1][10][12] - The decision to divest from ARM and Applied Digital while increasing holdings in Intel and Synopsys indicates a move towards consolidating efforts in AI infrastructure [3][12][7] Company Overview - Nokia has transitioned from a consumer electronics giant to a leading telecommunications equipment supplier, currently experiencing a recovery with a stock price of $7.77, a 27.59% increase over the past three months, and a market capitalization of $44.617 billion [8][1] - The company has strong capabilities in 5G access, base station software, and optical communication, and is set to enhance its core competencies with the acquisition of Infinera in 2024 [8][1] Strategic Intent - Nvidia's increase in Nokia shares is not a random financial investment but a calculated move to integrate Nokia's network capabilities with Nvidia's AI computing strengths, facilitating the deployment of AI technologies in telecommunications [10][12] - The strategic focus is on creating a closed-loop ecosystem that combines computing power, network infrastructure, and chip design, which is essential for the development of physical AI applications [12][6] Investment Adjustments - Nvidia's divestment from ARM and Applied Digital reflects a strategic realignment to focus on core areas that support the "compute + network" model, avoiding distractions from non-core investments [12][3] - The investments in Intel and Synopsys are aimed at addressing AI chip production bottlenecks and enhancing collaboration in chip design, which are critical for the overall AI infrastructure [12][6]

中国经济将在政策协同与新质生产力的驱动下，进入一个"质效兼顾"的新阶段。 站在2026年伊始回看全球经济，在2025年经历了一系列冲击后展现出超预期的韧性，尤其是中国出口， 再次成为中国经济增长的重要推手，但全球贸易体系碎片化的结构性问题依然暗流涌动。作为"十五 五"规划的开局之年，2026年的中国经济备受瞩目。总体来看，2026年全球经济增长将延续过去几年平 均的态势，而中国经济将在政策协同与新质生产力的驱动下，进入一个"质效兼顾"的新阶段，其核心任 务是从出口驱动向内需驱动进行战略攻坚。 全球经济：主要经济体分化下的韧性 国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新预测显示，2026年全球经济增长率将在3.3%，和2025年以及2024年持 平。贸易紧张局势的持续以及高企的债务压力成为拖累全球复苏的两大主要包袱。笔者年初参加达沃斯 论坛，其间发布的《首席经济学家展望》报告指出，尽管全球经济展现韧性，但资产价格泡沫（特别是 AI概念的过度炒作）、发达国家居高不下的债务水平以及不断演进的地缘冲突，依然是2026年最大的 不确定性来源。 主要经济体之间的表现将呈现出显著分化： 美国：经济仍具一定韧性，这主要得益于人工智能领域 ...