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研选 | 光大研究每周重点报告20250419-20250425
光大证券研究· 2025-04-25 08:46
本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写,仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户,用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 市场观点纷繁芜杂,光大研究荟萃本周重点报告,涵盖总量、行业、公司研究,为您筛选有价值的 声音。 每周六早8点,"研选"助您快速厘清投资"点线面"! 公司研究 聚焦优质IP,打造强产品力拼搭角色类玩具——布鲁可(0325.HK)首次覆盖报告 公司从儿童教育领域成功转型切入拼搭角色类玩具赛道,2 2年正式推出拼搭角色类玩具(积木人) 以 及 自 有 IP" 英 雄 无 限 " , 2 4 年 实 现 营 收 2 2 . 4 1 亿 元 , 同 比 增 长 1 5 5 . 6% , 拼 搭 玩 具 收 入 占 比 达 到 9 8 . 2%。公司规模效应不断凸显,2 1 - 2 4年公司整体毛利率从3 7 . 4%提升至5 2 . 6%,同时营销推广费 大幅下降,2 3年经调整净利润实 ...
交易亮点|今年三宗最大香港 IPO – 蜜雪冰城、古茗、布鲁可
高盛GoldmanSachs· 2025-04-25 06:55
蜜雪冰城股份有限公司4.44亿美元(绿鞋后5.10亿美元)港交所首次公开发行 蜜雪冰城是中国及全球最大的现制饮品企业,公司的门店网络在中国及海外11个国家共拥有 46,479家门店。2024年,公司的门店网络共实现饮品出杯量约90亿杯,终端零售额约583亿人民币 古茗控股有限公司2.33亿美元(绿鞋后2.61亿美元)港交所首次公开发行 布鲁可集团有限公司2.15亿美元(绿鞋后2.48亿美元)港交所首次公开发行 今年一季度,企业充分把握有利的股权发行环境,中国IPO市场活动显著升温。 高盛很荣幸主导了今年三宗最大的香港IPO,包括现制饮品企业蜜雪冰城和古茗,以及拼搭角色类玩具 企业布鲁可。 古茗是中国最大的大众现制茶饮店品牌,拥有约18%的市场份额,也是全价格带下中国第二大现 制茶饮店品牌 国际配售部分在价格区间顶端获得了约15倍的超额认购,有着主权财富基金、国际及中资长线基 金的积极参与,公司得以全额行使15%发售量调整权 布鲁可是中国最大的拼搭角色类玩具企业,于2023年按GMV计的市场份额为30.3%。公司亦是一 家快速增长的玩具企业,2023年GMV增长超过170% 香港公开发行认购倍数达约6,000倍 ...
降息预期升温,美股何去何从?纳指100ETF(513390)大涨超3%!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-25 03:07
Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve officials' comments have raised expectations for earlier interest rate cuts, with Governor Waller indicating support for cuts if high tariffs harm the job market [1] - Cleveland Fed President Mester suggested that rate action could occur as soon as June if clearer economic direction is obtained [1] Group 2: Stock Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones up 1.23%, Nasdaq up 2.74%, and S&P 500 up 2.03%, driven by the anticipation of interest rate cuts [2] - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with Tesla, Amazon, and Microsoft rising over 3%, while semiconductor stocks like Micron and Broadcom increased by over 6% [2] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Concerns - A recent poll indicated that 47% of Americans believe tariffs will lead to significant price increases, with 53% expressing extreme concern over potential economic recession due to tariff policies [3][4] - Nearly 90% of respondents are worried about rising grocery prices in the coming months, reflecting deteriorating consumer sentiment [4] Group 4: Corporate Earnings and Forecast Adjustments - Procter & Gamble has lowered its revenue and profit expectations for fiscal year 2025, citing deteriorating consumer spending in the U.S. [4] - Hasbro warned of potential $300 million losses and up to $180 million in profit reductions if current tariff policies persist [4] - PepsiCo and American Airlines have also adjusted their annual profit forecasts downward due to increased production costs and economic uncertainty stemming from tariff policies [5] Group 5: Market Predictions and Analyst Adjustments - Deutsche Bank's strategy team has revised its year-end S&P 500 target down to 6,150 points, predicting a 5% decline in earnings, contrary to the general expectation of an 8% increase [5]
出海速递|出海“放贷”:有人铩羽而归,有人疯狂赚钱/泡泡玛特和名创优品,必有一战
3 6 Ke· 2025-04-24 11:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the challenges and opportunities faced by Chinese lending institutions expanding overseas, particularly in high-interest and high-default-rate markets like Indonesia and Mexico, leading to some institutions exiting or adjusting their strategies [2]. Group 2 - The article highlights the competitive landscape in overseas lending, emphasizing the intense competition in markets such as Indonesia and Mexico, which has resulted in varying degrees of success for different institutions [2]. - It notes that while some institutions have faced setbacks, others have managed to achieve significant profits, indicating a mixed outcome for Chinese lenders in international markets [2].
浑瑾李岳最新交流:关注涌现出的三大新刚需,消费老白马或许是下半年最大的预期差……
聪明投资者· 2025-04-24 03:25
以下文章来源于IN咖 ,作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 以上是 浑瑾资本李岳 在 4月14日的一场线上路演中分享的最新观点。 在 AI大趋势如火如荼的当下,李岳从消费中看到了更多的机会。 "投资这件事的终极意义在于战胜货币供应量,全球货币供应量是以每年8%~10%的速度在增长,只有全球最稀缺的优质资产才能穿越周期。" "打个比方,美国人是用龙虾、鲍鱼才能做出了米其林,中国人用小米粥就熬出了米其林。所以,出现了 科技平权。 " " 以往消费刚需聚焦于衣食住行,未来则涌现出三大新刚需: IP消费、悦己消费以及国产平替。" 成立浑瑾之前, 2009年至2011年 李岳 曾在华夏基金担任消费行业分析师和国际业务部研究副主管 , 2011年加入高瓴,于2020年 离任,离开 时是高 瓴二级市场大消费组合的负责人,主导超过百亿美元基金的大消费板块投资工作。 在过往十几年的投资生涯中, 李岳 专注于大消费领域,以及制造业等投研工作。 在本次交流会中,通过李岳对于大量公司案例的分析,不难看出他对这些领域的生意非常了解。 尤其是对于新消费中 IP消费的理解,李岳并非简单探讨了趋势,而是从本质出发,理解 ...
华泰证券今日早参-20250424
HTSC· 2025-04-24 02:18
Group 1: Fixed Income and Currency - The recent decline in the US dollar index indicates a weakening of its safe-haven attributes, influenced by multiple long-term and short-term factors, including tariff policies and economic recession concerns [2][3] - Gold is identified as a primary beneficiary of a weak dollar, although it is currently overbought and sensitive to negative news [2] - The report suggests that Eurozone assets may replace US dollar assets as a new safe haven, with potential opportunities in the Japanese yen and Japanese stocks [2] Group 2: Internet and Gaming Industry - The gaming industry shows resilience with new game launches, particularly from Tencent and NetEase, expected to enhance revenue streams [3][4] - In Q1, domestic iOS game revenue increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with significant growth during the Spring Festival for popular games [3] - The government is providing more policy support for the gaming industry, including initiatives to promote overseas expansion and the establishment of new educational programs [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - Public fund holdings in real estate stocks have decreased, while concentration has increased, indicating a mixed sentiment among institutional investors [5] - The report anticipates a potential increase in policy support for the real estate sector, driven by seasonal trends and external economic factors [5] Group 4: Pharmaceutical and Health Sector - The gene sequencing industry is entering a new era, with domestic companies expected to accelerate their market share due to recent government restrictions on foreign competitors [6] - Companies like BGI are positioned as leaders in the sequencing service market, with a comprehensive approach to health and disease prevention [6] Group 5: Telecommunications Industry - China Mobile reported a slight increase in revenue and a notable growth in net profit, driven by advancements in AI services [7][8] - The company is transitioning from cloud computing to AI-integrated services, which is expected to become a new revenue growth driver [7] Group 6: Consumer Goods and Retail - Pop Mart's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with significant revenue growth attributed to both domestic and international markets [9] - The company is expanding its product offerings and optimizing its store formats to enhance customer engagement and sales [9] Group 7: Electric Equipment and New Energy - Dongfang Cable reported a substantial increase in revenue and net profit, driven by growth in high-margin export sales [10] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for offshore wind projects and related cable installations [10] Group 8: Agriculture and Food Sector - Salted Fish's revenue and net profit showed strong growth, driven by an expanding product range and improved distribution channels [15] - The company is leveraging its diverse product offerings to capture market share and enhance profitability [15] Group 9: Financial Services - The internet finance sector is experiencing stable growth, with healthy loan quality and increasing profitability [6] - Regulatory changes are expected to positively impact leading platforms while potentially accelerating the exit of smaller players [6] Group 10: Materials and Chemicals - Feikai Materials reported significant growth in net profit, supported by new projects and a strong market position in the semiconductor sector [22] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the demand for lithium battery materials, with improving profitability anticipated [22]
南财早新闻|黄金今年迄今跑赢比特币;三部门:延续实施失业保险稳岗惠民政策举措
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-04-22 23:46
Group 1 - International gold futures and spot prices have both surpassed $3,500 per ounce, with gold prices increasing over 30% this year, outpacing Bitcoin [2] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, along with two other departments, has issued a notice to extend unemployment insurance policies to support job stability and enhance vocational skills until the end of 2025 [2] - The Ministry of Education has announced the addition of 29 new undergraduate majors for the 2025 college entrance examination [2] Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2025, China's goods trade saw a net inflow of $206.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 120% [2] - The banking industry reported a total of 29.14 trillion yuan in the scale of bank wealth management products by the end of the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.41% [2] Group 3 - Tesla's first-quarter revenue for 2025 was $19.34 billion, a 9.2% year-on-year decline, with net profit dropping 63.8% to $409 million [6] - BYD announced a profit distribution plan involving cash dividends of 39.74 yuan per 10 shares and a stock dividend of 8 shares for every 10 shares held [6] - Pop Mart reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 165%-170% in the first quarter, with overseas revenue increasing by 475%-480% [6] Group 4 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a training session focused on market value management for central enterprises, aiming to enhance their understanding and application of market value management tools [4] - Tencent has overtaken CATL as the top holding in active equity funds for the first time, indicating a significant investment shift towards Hong Kong stocks by mainland public funds [5] - The cancellation of the "refund only" policy by major e-commerce platforms marks the end of a four-year practice initiated by Pinduoduo in 2021 [5]
董明珠称消费者生命安全最重要丨大公司动态
第一财经· 2025-04-22 15:00
第一财经每日精选最热门大公司动态。 【今日推荐】 【互联网】 京东:近期报名秒送全职骑手预计审核需要一周左右的时间 据京东黑板报消息,近期加入京东秒送全职骑手报名太火爆,预计审核需要一周左右的时间,请保持 电话畅通并耐心等待。 京东稳定币已进入香港"沙盒"测试 京东集团副总裁、首席经济学家沈建光表示,目前,京东已经进入了香港的稳定币发行"沙盒"测试阶 段,香港的稳定币相关法案制定还在推进中,还没有明确的条款。预计香港的《稳定币条例草案》获 得批准后,香港金融管理局可以据此正式发布稳定币的具体落成细则。(每日经济新闻) 中午崩了?京东外卖致歉:超时20分钟全部免单 4月22日中午,不少网友在社交媒体上发文称,京东外卖崩了相关话题迅速冲上热搜。对此,京东外 卖下午13:21分发文致歉称:非常抱歉,耽误大家用餐了!因今日午高峰京东外卖下单量暴增,导致 系统出现短暂故障,目前已全面恢复,大家可以正常下单了。感谢大家的理解与支持,为表达歉意, 所有已送达超时20分钟以上的外卖订单,京东全部免单。同时,对于22日午高峰宕机期间所有下单 用户,京东外卖将于当日额外发放一张10元无门槛优惠券到下单账户。 刘强东分享送外卖感受 ...
领涨全球!今年以来港股表现抢眼 恒生科技指数涨幅达9.40%,57只个股涨幅翻倍
Shen Zhen Shang Bao· 2025-04-20 16:48
从港股个股表现来看,今年1月1日至4月17日,按前复权价计算,港股市场991只个股上涨,其中179只 个股涨幅超过50%,57只个股涨幅超过100%,15只个股涨幅超过300%,7只个股涨幅超过700%,5只个 股涨幅超过1000%,涨幅前三名个股分别为HSSP INTL、Mindtell Tech、连城科技集团、Mindtell Tech, 涨幅分别达44497%、1525%、1452%。同时,港股市场1530只个股下跌,其中73只个股跌幅超过50%, 7只个股跌幅超过80%,跌幅前三名分别为建鹏控股、多想云、益美国际控股,跌幅分别为93.40%、 87.21%、87.12%。 港股市场龙头公司领涨大市 今年以来,港股市场领涨全球主要股市,南下资金源源不断流入港股,成为今年港股上行的主要推动 力。今年1月1日至4月17日,恒生指数涨幅为6.7%,最高触及24874.39点,收报21395.14点;恒生科技 指数涨幅达9.40%,收报4887.37点;国企指数一季度涨幅为8.33%,收报7897.44点。 今年以来港股市场991只个股上涨 从全球主要股市表现来看,今年以来港股市场一枝独秀。以美国股市和日本股市 ...
【布鲁可(0325.HK)】聚焦优质IP,打造强产品力拼搭角色类玩具——首次覆盖报告(付天姿/姜浩/杨朋沛/梁丹辉)
光大证券研究· 2025-04-19 13:17
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and market position of Blukoo, China's largest building block character toy company, emphasizing its successful transition into the building block character toy segment and the impressive revenue growth achieved in recent years [2][3]. Company Overview - Blukoo has successfully transitioned from the children's education sector to the building block character toy market, launching its building block character toys (block figures) and proprietary IP "Hero Infinite" in 2022. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 22.41 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 155.6%, with building block toy revenue accounting for 98.2% of total revenue [2]. - The company's overall gross margin improved from 37.4% in 2021 to 52.6% in 2024, while marketing expenses significantly decreased. In 2023, the adjusted net profit turned from a loss to a profit, reaching 5.85 billion RMB in 2024, corresponding to an adjusted net profit margin of 26.1% [2]. Industry Insights - The building block character toy segment is the fastest-growing and most promising niche in the toy industry. The global market for character/building/block character toys experienced compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 7.7%, 11.1%, and 20.5% from 2019 to 2023. In China, the CAGR for character/building/block character toys was 11.9%, 12.7%, and 49.6% during the same period [3]. - Blukoo maintains a strong market position, with a domestic market GMV of approximately 17 billion RMB in 2023, capturing a market share of 30.3%, ranking first in the industry. In the global market, its GMV reached about 18 billion RMB, with a market share of 6.3%, ranking third [3]. Growth Drivers - The growth of Blukoo is driven by a combination of IP strength, robust product offerings, and a primarily offline distribution network. The company has a relatively high concentration of IP, with two proprietary IPs and around 50 licensed IPs. The revenue contribution from the Ultraman IP is expected to decline, with projected sales of 10.96 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 96.8%, but its revenue share is expected to decrease by 14.6 percentage points to 48.9% [4]. - Blukoo has developed a diverse product portfolio with 682 SKUs by the end of 2024, targeting the 6 to 16 age group. The mainstream product price ranges from 9.9 RMB to 399 RMB, with popular products priced around 39 RMB. The company ensures product quality through strict selection and management of production partners, collaborating with leading third-party manufacturers [4]. - The offline distribution network is well-established, with 92.1% of revenue from offline distributors in 2024. The company collaborates with over 450 distributors, effectively covering all first- and second-tier cities and more than 80% of third-tier and below cities, penetrating deeper into the market [4].