Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending on February 27, 2026, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 2.73%, -0.15%, and 3.56% respectively [3]. - In the public - fund market, the enhanced index strategy had strong performance with a weekly return of 2.29% in the past week; neutral - strategy products mostly rose; medium - and long - term pure - bond strategies had a slight decline. In the commodity market, precious - metal and non - ferrous - metal ETFs performed strongly, with the net value of gold ETFs rising by 3.04% [3]. - Among the CITIC five - style indices, the cycle and growth styles had strong returns in the past week, while the financial style declined. The style - rotation chart showed that the relative strength of the stable style strengthened recently, and the relative - strength momentum of the consumption and growth styles decreased month - on - month [3]. - In the public - fund pool, the financial - style fund index outperformed the benchmark with a weekly excess return of 1.65%. The market's deviation from the stable and cycle styles slightly increased. The current congestion indicators remained at a low level, and the congestion of the cycle and financial styles increased marginally [3]. - Among the Barra factors, the liquidity and momentum factors had strong returns in the past week, with a weekly excess return of 1.77% each. The return of the profitability factor decreased month - on - month. In terms of winning rate, the growth factor performed well recently, and the volatility factor decreased during the week. The cross - section rotation speed of factors decreased marginally this week and was currently in the upper - middle quantile range of the past year [3]. - According to the latest scoring results of the style - timing model, the financial style recovered this week, and the current signal favored the stable style. The return of the style - timing strategy last week was 4.36%, with an excess return of 2.04% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Index Returns - The weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 2.73%, -0.15%, and 3.56% respectively as of the week ending on February 27, 2026 [3]. Public - Fund Market - Enhanced index strategy had a weekly return of 2.29% in the past week; neutral - strategy products mostly rose; medium - and long - term pure - bond strategies had a slight decline. Gold ETFs' net value rose by 3.04% [3]. CITIC Five - Style Indices - Cycle and growth styles had strong returns in the past week, while the financial style declined. The relative strength of the stable style strengthened recently, and the relative - strength momentum of the consumption and growth styles decreased month - on - month [3]. Public - Fund Pool - The financial - style fund index outperformed the benchmark with a weekly excess return of 1.65%. The market's deviation from the stable and cycle styles slightly increased. The current congestion indicators remained at a low level, and the congestion of the cycle and financial styles increased marginally [3]. Barra Factors - Liquidity and momentum factors had a weekly excess return of 1.77% each in the past week. The return of the profitability factor decreased month - on - month. The growth factor had a good winning rate recently, and the volatility factor decreased during the week. The cross - section rotation speed of factors decreased marginally and was in the upper - middle quantile range of the past year [3]. Style - Timing Model - The financial style recovered this week, and the current signal favored the stable style. The return of the style - timing strategy last week was 4.36%, with an excess return of 2.04% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3].

冠通期货研究报告 --2026年3月PVC月度报告 发布日期：2026年3月2日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：苏妙达 执业证书号：F03104403/Z0018167 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 行情分析 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.99个百分点至82.08%，PVC开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。春节后第一周，PVC 下游平均开工率回升17.11个百分点至17.11%，较去年农历同期减少6.34个百分点，目前春节假期刚结束，下游还未完全复产。出 口方面，节后出口签单小幅回升，但多数出口企业3月份预售已经完成，加上4月1日就将取消出口退税，预计PVC出口签单3月份处 于低位。另外，印度发布反补贴税调查，PVC出口预期下降。社会库存在春节假期期间增加较多，本周继续增加，目前仍偏高，库 存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工 等同比增速进一步下降 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 2、截至 2026 年 2 月 24 日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量 15.81 万吨，较 上周期增 6.19 万吨，幅度+64.35%。商品量库存在 8.72 万吨，较上周期增 3.32 万吨，幅度+61.48%。 【宏观面分析】 1、中共中央政治局 2 月 27 日召开会议，会议强调，要继续实施更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，强化改革举措与宏观政策协同。 2、中国人民银行决定自 2026 年 3 月 2 日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准 备金率从 20%下调至 0。 3、当地时间 3 月 1 日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡。 4、航运业消息显示，有 3 艘油轮在波斯湾沿岸海域遇到袭击，造成损毁。 另一方面，航运数据显示，超过 200 艘船只，包括石油和液化气油轮，在霍尔木 兹海峡及附近海域抛锚。 【期现行情分析】 芳烃日报：美伊冲突升级，纯苯苯乙烯双双涨停 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 【基本面分析】 1、截至2026年2月23日，全球苯乙烯开工72.80%，环比+3.43%，同比-3.89%， 处于近六年同期偏低水平。 1 冠通期货 黄德志 执业资格证书编号： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel price is expected to turn from weak to strong after the first ten - day period of March. Although the 4 - year - and - 10 - month decline cycle may be nearing its end, the later rebound path remains unclear, and investors or operators need to prepare for long - term market fluctuations [5][9][66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In February, the main 2605 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated lower and then the decline narrowed. On February 24, the 2605 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures reached new lows since July 2, 2025, and July 3, 2025, respectively, at 3005 yuan/ton and 3181 yuan/ton, and then rebounded slightly. As of February 27, the 2605 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell 61 yuan/ton (1.95%) and 73 yuan/ton (2.22%) respectively from the closing price on January 30 [18][19][22]. - In February, the premium of hot - rolled coil over rebar first widened and then significantly narrowed. The premium narrowed from 160 yuan/ton at the end of January to 148 yuan/ton at the end of February [23][24]. 3.2 Analysis of Main Influencing Factors - **Inventory**: From January 30 to February 27, the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities increased from 326.40 tons to 567.76 tons, a gain of 241.36 tons or 73.9%. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities increased from 278.33 tons to 357.37 tons, a gain of 79.04 tons or 28.4%. The main reason is that the seasonal demand for rebar accelerated to shrink in February while the decline in rebar production was not large, the production of hot - rolled coil was relatively stable, and the decline in hot - rolled coil demand was limited [26]. - **Production and Consumption**: Since the end of January, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has continued to rise. The average daily output of crude steel of large and medium - sized steel mills in the first and middle ten - day periods of February first decreased and then increased compared with the same period in January, reaching a new high since mid - October last year. Since the end of January, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products nationwide has significantly accelerated its decline due to seasonal factors. Considering the recovery of demand and relatively low production, the steel price in March is expected to be weak first and then strong [28][31][39]. - **Output and Inventory of Specific Varieties**: As of the week of February 27, the weekly output of rebar from major steel mills in the past four weeks was 696.32 tons, a decrease of 84.4 tons or 10.81% compared with the previous four weeks. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil from major steel mills in the past four weeks was 1236.34 tons, an increase of 7.85 tons or 0.64% compared with the previous four weeks. As of February 27, the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major steel mills was 232.84 tons and 94.78 tons respectively, an increase of 83.71 tons (56.13%) and 17.53 tons (22.69%) respectively compared with January 30, indicating weak seasonal demand in the rebar and hot - rolled coil markets [40]. - **Profit**: In February (as of February 27), the spot profit of blast - furnace rebar continued to rise, the spot profit of electric - furnace construction steel showed a narrowing loss, the spot profit of hot - rolled coil turned from loss to profit, and the contract profit of rebar futures showed a narrowing loss after a brief expansion. The main reason is that although the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined, the spot price of iron ore continued to fall for the second month, and the spot price of coke was basically stable, resulting in an increase or turnaround in the spot profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil. In the futures market, the decline of steel futures was small, while iron ore and coke futures weakened significantly, leading to a narrowing of the overall loss of steel contract profits [47][51]. - **Downstream Demand**: Compared with January - November last year, the demand of the steel downstream industries in January - December last year showed different trends. The demand for construction steel such as rebar represented by real - estate development investment decreased for 10 consecutive months, the year - on - year decline in the demand for construction steel such as rebar represented by the new housing construction area turned to a slight narrowing, the growth rate of the demand for manufacturing machinery steel represented by the output of metal - cutting machine tools narrowed for 3 consecutive months from a high level, the growth rate of the demand for real - estate - related machinery steel represented by the output of excavators turned to a slight expansion, the growth rate of the demand for hot - rolled coil represented by automobile output narrowed for 2 consecutive months from a high level, and the growth rate of the demand for cold - rolled products represented by household appliance output mainly declined. In March, the seasonal demand for construction steel will recover significantly, and the demand for industrial plate steel will also rise. Considering the contradiction between low production and rising demand, the steel price is expected to rebound in March [52][62]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The news has a limited positive impact on the expected steel price. From the fundamental perspective, as time passes, the low steel production will eventually conflict with the warming of spring demand. It is expected that there will be an inflection point from weak to strong after the first ten - day period of March [63][66].

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: March 2, 2026 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, etc. 1. Market Performance 1.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 2, most domestic futures main contracts were up. Contracts such as container shipping to Europe, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), SC crude oil, etc. hit the daily limit. Shanghai silver rose over 9%, and some other contracts like p-xylene (PX), PTA, and synthetic rubber rose over 6%. In terms of declines, polysilicon fell over 2% and live pigs fell nearly 2% [7]. - Among stock index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 0.07%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.06%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) fell 0.07%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.15%. Among treasury bond futures, the main contracts of 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) all rose [8]. 1.2 Fund Flows - As of 15:27 on March 2, funds flowed into contracts such as Shanghai gold 2604 (4.837 billion yuan), CSI 2603 (1.563 billion yuan), and Shanghai silver 2604 (1.539 billion yuan). Funds flowed out of contracts such as Shanghai tin 2604 (871 million yuan), lithium carbonate 2605 (626 million yuan), and cotton 2605 (563 million yuan) [8]. 2. Market Analysis of Specific Varieties 2.1 Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, rising during the day. Affected by the Iran-US conflict, the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.69 tons MoM (3.13%), and is expected to increase by 5.28 tons in March. The demand for scrap copper is expected to increase, and the supply gap may be filled by overseas imports. The downstream is resistant to high copper prices, and the copper product sector is under pressure. Overall, the copper market is in a state of oversupply. In the short term, copper prices may be under pressure and fluctuate, and are expected to be strong in the long term [10][11]. 2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, falling during the day. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 172,500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade is 169,000 yuan/ton. Due to seasonal and holiday factors, the supply of lithium carbonate raw materials decreased in February. The downstream battery production is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory has decreased. The new 15% tariff and the "rush to export" expectation support the price. However, the short-term impact of geopolitical conflicts is limited, and the price may fluctuate [12]. 2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The EIA data shows a large increase in US crude oil inventory. Affected by the Iran-US conflict, Iran's oil production and exports are affected, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate strongly in the near term, and the situation in the Middle East will have a great impact on the price [13][14]. 2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt supply is weak, with the operating rate at a low level. In March, the domestic asphalt production is expected to increase by 13.0% MoM. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the overall supply and demand are still weak. The price is expected to follow the rise of crude oil prices, and the arbitrage strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [15][17]. 2.5 PP - As of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased seasonally. The PP enterprise operating rate is at a neutral-low level, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The rise in crude oil prices has a significant impact on PP. It is expected that PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream production [18]. 2.6 Plastic - The plastic operating rate is at a neutral-high level, and the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected that the plastic price will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream production [19][20]. 2.7 PVC - The PVC operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate is gradually recovering. The export is expected to decline, and the social inventory is still high. The PVC price is under pressure in the short term, but is expected to be strong in the long term due to policy and maintenance expectations [21]. 2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, rebounding slightly during the day. The supply of imported coal is gradually recovering, and the domestic mine production is increasing. The inventory of coking coal mines has increased, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and policy expectations [23]. 2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and closed low, falling during the day. The spot price has risen. The supply is high, the inventory is low, and the demand is expected to be high. It is expected that urea will fluctuate strongly in March, and attention should be paid to the impact of national reserve release on the price [24][26].

Tabl e_Title 2026 年 3 月 2 日 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | | 2.77% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | | 0.04% | | 全球债券指数 | | 0.50% | | 全球国债指数 | | 0.51% | | 全球信用债指数 | | 0.33% | | 姓名 | | 分析师 | | 美元指数 | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | -0.10% | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn | 0.53% | | | | 021-68767839 | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20251117 -20251121)- AI 泡沫担忧升温 权益资 产价格回落 大类资产运行周报（20251124 -20251 ...

Report Title - "Demand Gradually Recovers, Market Expected to Oscillate and Rise - Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report 20260302" [1] Report Author - Zhou Guisheng, with qualification certificate F3036194 and investment consulting certificate Z0015986 [1] Market Views Coking Coal Fundamentals - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines is 68.24% (+19.35%), and the daily output of clean coal is 64.9 million tons (+19.02). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants is 22.73% (-9.55%), and the daily output of clean coal is 16.91 million tons (-7.43). After the Spring Festival, coal mine复产 increased, but the speed is slower than the lunar year. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has returned to a high level [3]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills is 223.28 million tons (+2.79), the blast furnace operating rate is 80.22% (+0.09%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills are 12.65 days (-0.41), and in 230 independent coking plants are 12.28 days (-1.08). The downstream mainly consumes existing inventory, and replenishment is postponed [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines is 257.66 million tons (+6.04), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants is 998.86 million tons (-80.23), the inventory of steel mills is 796.24 million tons (-27.89), the inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants is 298.93 million tons (-10.08), and the inventory of major ports is 271.97 million tons (+13.56). Currently, the inventory of mines and ports has slightly accumulated, while the inventory of coking plants, coal washing plants, and steel mills has decreased [3]. - Summary: Last week, the coking coal market was weak in both supply and demand. With the gradual recovery of hot metal output, downstream demand will increase, and there are still policy expectations during the Two Sessions. It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the demand recovery [3]. Coke Fundamentals - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants is - 7 yuan/ton (-1), the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants is 74.36% (+1.47%), the daily output is 64.29 million tons (+0.55), and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills is 47.1 million tons (-0.13). The loss of coking plant profits has narrowed, and the resumption of production is optimistic [4]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills is 223.28 million tons (+2.79), the blast furnace operating rate is 80.22% (+0.09%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills are 12.41 days (-0.05). As the hot metal output gradually recovers, the demand for coke replenishment increases [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants is 107.82 million tons (+7.54), the inventory of major ports is 197.1 million tons (-1.96), and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 675.11 million tons (-1.35). The overall social inventory of coke has increased [4]. - Summary: In terms of supply, the output of coking enterprises has increased after the Spring Festival, and the overall supply has slightly increased. In terms of demand, the steel mills mainly consume existing inventory, and as the hot metal output recovers, the demand for coke replenishment is expected to increase. The current supply - demand situation of coke is weak, but it is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the demand recovery [4] Macro - Real Estate Tracking - The report includes data on the year - on - year cumulative growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the year - on - year cumulative growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the manufacturing PMI [6][10][14][18] Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - Coking coal spot prices are oscillating. The basis of the main 05 contract warehouse receipts has rebounded slightly. It also tracks the daily output, operating rate, inventory, and the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal of sample mines and coal washing plants, as well as the hot metal output and blast furnace operating rate of steel mills [21][26][31] Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - It shows the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the spot price adjustment schedule and comparison of coke, and the basis of different contracts. The profit per ton of coke in coking enterprises has slightly recovered. It also tracks the output, capacity utilization rate, and inventory of coke in coking enterprises and steel mills [59][61][74]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Iron ore fundamentals show inventory accumulation and limited recovery in back - end demand. With the upcoming Two Sessions, positive macro - expectations and the BACK structure of futures under positive basis limit the further downward space, and the short - term trend is a volatile and moderately strong rebound [4] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures strengthened in intraday trading, closing at 754.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or +0.53% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 267,000 lots, the open interest was 543,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.009 billion yuan. The short - term support below has moved up to around 745, and it is still treated with a moderately strong rebound mindset [1] - Port spot prices: PB powder at Qingdao Port was 749 yuan (unchanged), Super Special powder was 638 yuan (unchanged), and the main swap was 99.25 (+1.4) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to rebound and strengthen, while the spot prices remained stable [1] - At the basis and spread end, the converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 22.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 21 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and Australian shipments recovered. The arrivals this period continued to weaken due to weather impacts on the arrival rhythm, but are expected to pick up later. On the demand side, hot metal production increased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, and the rigid demand increased marginally. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand support [2] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory of iron ore stopped increasing. The decline in arrivals and steel mills' replenishment alleviated the port inventory accumulation pressure temporarily, but the overall inventory pressure is still building up. The relaxation of real - estate purchase restrictions in Shanghai boosted the market sentiment, but may have limited impact on the actual demand in the short term. The Two Sessions are about to be held after the holiday, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policies are coordinated and strengthened, high - frequency consumption is warm, and the real estate market shows marginal improvement. Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal levels, and the liquidity environment was stable, which was beneficial to short - term interest rates. Exports were stable, travel and consumption were active during the Spring Festival, and social retail sales from January to February may be better than expected, supporting domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities. Real - estate transactions remained at a low level, but the listing prices in first - and second - tier cities rebounded slightly, and the signal of policy optimization increased, but the sustainability of the recovery remains to be observed. The quota of special bonds was increased, but the investment structure was adjusted, and the physical elasticity of infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale, providing limited support to the black chain [3] - Overseas, consumer confidence is recovering, industrial orders are differentiated, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. Policy discussions around the Wash nominee are intensifying, and the risk premium affects the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. Coupled with Trump's strengthened stance towards Iran and the Israeli air strike on Iran, the situation in the Middle East has heated up, pushing up energy and safe - haven premiums. The overall situation is "growth has not stalled, and policy and geopolitical risks have increased" [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the intense exchange of fire between the US, Israel, and Iran, market sentiment fluctuated sharply, with the US dollar surging and the RMB falling. The substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to the limit - up of shipping indices and crude oil, and most chemicals soared. Silver and gold both reached new highs since February, and non - ferrous metals rose across the board. The energy factor caused aluminum to lead the gains. Copper prices were affected by multiple factors and showed a short - term volatile and upward trend, with a possible continuation of high - level oscillations in the medium term [4][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Performance - International situation caused market sentiment to fluctuate. The US dollar rose while the RMB fell, shipping and crude oil hit the daily limit, chemicals soared, and precious metals reached new highs. Non - ferrous metals rose across the board, with aluminum leading the gains. Today, LME copper rose, SHFE copper rose, but domestic spot copper prices fell [4] - Today, SHFE copper closed at 103,850, and the spot price was 102,200, with a spot - to - futures discount of - 1,650 points. The spot basis discount was - 190 points, and spot trading was poor. The LME spot discount narrowed to - $49, indicating improved foreign spot demand. This week, US copper inventories continued to rise to a new high, and LME and SHFE copper inventories increased significantly [4] - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Yangshan copper premium rose to $45.5. Domestic spot demand improved after the Spring Festival. The LME - SHFE copper ratio dropped to 7.71, and the premium of international copper over SHFE copper rose significantly to 370 points, with the foreign exchange ratio higher than the domestic one, and market sentiment was strong [4] Technical and Market Sentiment - LME copper rose slightly, trading around $13,360. SHFE copper pulled up and rose sharply in the afternoon, closing at 103,850, with a strong technical pattern. SHFE copper trading volume increased while open interest decreased, and market sentiment was cautious. In the spot market, domestic spot demand was average, LME copper spot demand was poor, and US copper buying declined [5] - Recently, the price difference between US copper and LME copper was close to parity. Driven by the strength of gold and silver, market sentiment recovered. The continuous international tension supported copper prices, but after the confirmation of the successor to the Fed chairman, policy uncertainty increased. After US copper broke through the previous high, market enthusiasm declined, and the uncertainty of AI demand was high, so the upward momentum of copper prices was limited. After the festival, the spot market sentiment recovered, with a short - term volatile and upward trend and a possible continuation of high - level oscillations in the medium term [5] Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (Yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (US dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract LME - SHFE Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | February 24 | 6.8912 | 460 | 54.5 | - 84 | 7.83 | | February 25 | 6.8543 | - 140 | 51 | - 88 | 7.75 | | February 26 | 6.8444 | - 580 | 50.5 | - 77 | 7.73 | | February 27 | 6.8610 | - 1590 | 50.5 | - 70 | 7.73 | | March 2 | 6.8797 | - 1650 | 45.5 | - 49 | 7.71 | [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：油粕分化 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 豆粕：巴西咨询公司 Patria AgroNegocios 发布的数据显示，截至周五，巴 西 2025/26 年度大豆收获进度已达到总种植面积的 39.66%，较去年同期进度高 出 2.38 个百分点，这一比例也高于过去五年同期均值 36.16%。BAGE：截至 2 月 25 日当周，阿根廷农业区的降雨有助于改善土壤墒情，尽管作物评级继续下滑。 目前 69%的大豆作物评级正常至良好，低于一周前的 75%,，去年同期 68%；73% 的种植区水分条件适宜到最佳，高于一周前的 66%，去年同期 71%。大豆评级差 劣率的比例为 29%，一周前 25%，去年同期 32%。 美豆出口延续偏强走势，而巴西二月发运少于预期可能 使得四月到港预期 减少，阿根廷偏干旱的天气预期也支撑市场偏强走势。本周注意抛储公告是否落 地，短期中东局势带动油脂板块走强，使得油粕比再度走扩，豆粕震荡偏弱，不 过在大豆抛储落地之前，很难往下打出空间，保持震荡走势为主。 油脂：印尼统计局周一发布的数据显示，印尼 1 月出口了 224 万吨毛棕榈油 及精炼棕榈油，较去 ...