Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of defensive stocks in the current global trade tensions, highlighting companies that are expected to maintain stability and growth potential during market volatility [2]. Group 1: Merck (NYSE: MRK) - Merck is a global pharmaceutical giant known for its innovative medical solutions, with a product range that includes cutting-edge cancer drugs, vaccines, and prescription medications [5]. - The company exhibits strong defensive characteristics with a low beta coefficient of 0.36, a high dividend yield of 3.48%, and an impressive return on equity (ROE) of 40.8% [6]. - Current stock price is $94, significantly undervalued compared to a fair value estimate of $121.83, indicating a potential upside of 29.6% [6]. - Analysts have a strong buy rating for Merck, with target prices ranging from $95 to $146, averaging $112.78 [6]. Group 2: NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) - NextEra Energy is a leading utility company in the renewable energy sector, employing a strategy that combines traditional and clean energy sources [12]. - The company has a beta value of 0.57, a dividend yield of 3.2%, and operates in a regulated environment, making it less susceptible to trade disputes [13]. - Current stock price is $70.01, with analysts projecting a potential increase of 20%, as target prices range from $52 to $103, averaging $84.27 [13]. - NextEra's strong cash flow and commitment to sustainable development position it as a stable investment during turbulent market conditions [14]. Group 3: Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) - Tyson Foods is a major player in the food processing industry, offering a wide range of meat products including beef, pork, and poultry [18]. - The company has defensive traits with a beta value of 0.71, a dividend yield of 3.3%, and a dominant market position in various meat product categories [19]. - Current stock price is $60.53, with a fair value estimate of $75.83, suggesting a potential upside of nearly 25% [19]. - Analysts have a buy rating for Tyson, with target prices ranging from $58 to $80, reflecting its strong position in the supply chain and limited exposure to trade conflicts [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has rebounded strongly, driven by positive sentiment from government reports and technological advancements, particularly in AI, leading to significant gains in major indices and sectors [1][2][4]. Valuation Analysis - The Hang Seng Index's dynamic PE has recovered from 9.1x to around 10.8x, which is near the historical average, while the Hang Seng Tech Index's dynamic PE has risen from 15.6x to 19.3x, still below historical averages [5][6]. - Compared to global markets, Hong Kong's dynamic PE remains low, with a dividend yield of approximately 3.2%, significantly higher than the 10-year Chinese bond yield of about 1.8% [6][10]. - New economy sectors have seen a PE recovery to 16.7x, while traditional sectors have reached 6.1x, both below their averages since 2015 [10][12]. - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is lower than that of comparable US stocks, with the dynamic PE of China's "Tech Giants" averaging 21.9x, compared to the US "Tech Seven" at 28.4x [12][30]. Drivers of Valuation Rebound - The valuation rebound is primarily driven by a shift in market sentiment, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing valuation expansions of 18.0% and 24.1%, respectively, largely due to a decrease in risk premium [14][17]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index has decreased to 5.7%, approaching the high point of 5.4% seen in early 2021, indicating improved investor sentiment [15][16]. - The influx of southbound capital has significantly influenced Hong Kong's pricing, with a cumulative purchase of 313.9 billion HKD since the beginning of the year, five times that of the same period last year [17][18]. Future Valuation Expansion Potential - Traditional sectors have a relative valuation expansion potential of about 5% compared to A-shares, while technology sector valuations are closely aligned with return on equity (ROE) expectations [21][23]. - The current valuation of technology stocks appears reasonable, but further expansion will depend on improved profitability, as the dynamic PE of Chinese tech leaders is significantly lower than that of their US counterparts [27][30]. - If the ROE for Chinese tech leaders can exceed 30%, there is potential for valuation to double, but this is contingent on upward revisions of profit expectations [30][31]. Investment Strategy - The current market rebound is based on optimistic sentiment regarding technological trends, and the extent of this sentiment will determine future market potential [31][32]. - The company suggests focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals and structural trends, particularly technology, while also considering dividend-paying stocks for balance [32][33].

3月5日，北证50成份指数涨超2.82%，同力股份、锦波生物、万通液压等多只北交所个股股价走出历史新 高。 记者注意到，近期大涨的多只北交所热门个股受到基金经理青睐，基金持仓比例相较去年同期均有所增加，随 着这些个股股价持续上涨，多只北交所主题基金年内业绩超过30%。 多位基金经理认为，北交所AI人工智能、低空经济、智能驾驶、机器人等领域均有质地不错的公司，这些符 合专精特新特点的细分行业龙头公司值得关注。 北交所个股人气高涨，基金加速买入 券商中国记者梳理发现，有多只公募基金重仓在这些创新高的热门股中，基金经理基于对北交所细分龙头企业 的看好持续加仓其中，这些龙头股的基金持仓比例逐步攀升。以同力股份为例，去年二季度、三季度基金持仓 比例分别是7.60%、6.58%，但四季度基金持仓比例达到8.29%。万通液压的基金持有比例从去年三季度的 4.85%提升至7.18%。 北交所主题基金业绩不俗 券商中国记者注意到，锦波生物、同力股份、曙光数创等近期大涨的北交所公司都是基金经理青睐的热门股， 在最新的机构持仓报告中，35只基金持有锦波生物、27只基金持有同力股份，22只基金持有曙光数创，基金持 仓比例相较去年同期 ...

中金研究 2025年3月5日，李强总理向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告，全面部署2025年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，设定今年发展的主要预期 目标，安排今年部分重点工作[1]。2025年政府工作报告对经济和金融市场具体可能如何影响？请听中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 宏观 积极回应多方面关切 2025 年 3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告（以下简称《报告》），延续了 2024 年中央经济工作会议的基 调。《报告》将 GDP 目标被设定为 5% 左右，既考虑了短周期的稳增长需要，也 " 与中长期发展目标相衔接 " 。 CPI 通胀目标被设定为 2% 左右，在通胀偏弱 的情况下，这是一个更为务实的目标，但《报告》也指出 " 实现这些目标很不容易，必须付出艰苦努力 " 。 除了稳增长之外，《报告》也指出要大力发展 以大 AI 为代表的新质生产力，并积极防范金融领域风险， " 稳住楼市股市 " 。总体而言，《报告》对短期与长期、金融与实体等方面的问题都予以积极回 应，报告还指出 " 充实完善政策工具箱，根据形势变化动态调整政策 " ，后续我们将紧密关注各项 ...

Executive Summary - In the U.S., electricity demand has begun to grow after decades of stagnation, with utilities projecting a 20% increase in load from 2023 to 2035, up from previous estimates of 7% in January 2021 [10][25][41] - Accurate load forecasting is crucial for managing affordability and reliability risks, as well as for considering all available investment options [12][13] - The report emphasizes the unique characteristics of new large loads, such as data centers and advanced manufacturing, which should be integrated into modern forecasting processes [13][20] Load Growth and Forecasting - Utilities have revised their five-year peak load forecasts from an expected increase of 23 GW to 128 GW between 2022 and 2024 [25] - The Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs) covering 48% of U.S. electricity sales predict a 20% load growth by 2035, indicating a significant upward revision in forecasts [10][25][27] - The report highlights the need for improved forecasting methods to accommodate the unique characteristics of new loads, which differ significantly from traditional load types [20][25] Regulatory Measures for Improved Forecasting - Regulatory agencies play a critical role in establishing forecasting guidelines, reviewing utility forecasts, and approving investment cost recovery based on these forecasts [21][22] - Recommendations for regulators include enhancing understanding of new load drivers, revising planning guidelines, and coordinating with state and local governments [22][23] - The report suggests that frequent updates to long-term load forecasts and transparent data sharing can improve forecasting accuracy and stakeholder engagement [22][23] Characteristics of New Loads - New large loads, particularly data centers and industrial manufacturing, present unique challenges for load forecasting due to their rapid growth and specific operational characteristics [60][68] - Data centers are expected to account for a significant portion of electricity load in certain states, with projections indicating they could represent 46% of Virginia's load by 2030 [61] - The flexibility potential of different load types varies, with some, like cryptocurrency mining operations, being more price-sensitive and flexible compared to traditional industrial loads [62][63] Best Practices for Load Forecasting - The report outlines best practices for improving load forecasting, including scenario-based forecasting methods and integrating end-use demand forecasts with econometric models [17][18] - Ensuring consistent application of load forecasts across planning processes is essential for informed decision-making [19] - The integration of new large loads into forecasting processes is still in its early stages, necessitating further development of modern forecasting systems [20][21] Conclusion - The report concludes that improving load forecasting can expand the options available to utilities and regulators when addressing load growth [36] - It emphasizes the importance of adapting forecasting practices to account for the rapid changes in load characteristics and the associated risks [36][37]

证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 3 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 公用事业行业周报 《2025 年能源工作指导意见》发布，深化绿色低碳转型 相关研究： | 《新能源全面入市，存量增量分类施 | | --- | | 策》 2025.02.11 | | 《电力系统调节能力优化方案发布，保 | | 障新能源消纳利用》 2025.01.14 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -3 -4 -11 绝对收益 -1 -4 2 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：孙菲 证书编号：S0500524010002 Tel：(8621) 50293587 Email：sf06902@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 本周公用事业(申万)下跌 1.09%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.13 个百分点 截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日，本周沪深 300 下跌 2.22%，公用事业(申万)下跌 1.09%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.13pct，在申万一级行业中排名第 19 位。子板 块中，火电上涨 0.46% ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company achieved adjusted EBITDA of $2.64 billion, down from $2.8 billion in 2023, primarily due to extreme weather events in South America and asset sales [32][34] - Adjusted EPS for 2024 was $2.14, an increase from $1.76 in 2023, driven by tax benefits from new renewable projects and a lower adjusted tax rate [33][34] - Parent free cash flow was $1.1 billion, at the midpoint of guidance, reflecting a more than 10% increase from the prior year [37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Renewables SBU experienced lower adjusted EBITDA due to historic weather volatility in South America, with significant contributions from new projects in the U.S. partially offsetting losses [34][36] - The Utilities SBU saw higher adjusted PTC driven by rate-based investments and improved weather, but was partially offset by higher interest expenses [36] - The Energy Infrastructure SBU's lower adjusted EBITDA was attributed to outages and lower margins, while the New Energy Technologies SBU showed improved results [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. added 49 gigawatts of new renewable capacity in 2024, with renewables and battery storage representing 92% of those additions [15] - In 2025, the U.S. is expected to add 63 gigawatts, with 93% being solar, storage, and wind [16] - The company noted that renewables have the shortest time to power and greater price certainty, which is critical for meeting the growing demand for electricity [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on reducing investments in renewables to prioritize high-risk adjusted return projects and improve organizational efficiency [6][10] - The 2025 financial outlook indicates a significant growth in renewables EBITDA, with expectations of over 60% year-over-year growth [12][41] - The company is committed to maintaining its investment-grade credit rating and dividend while streamlining operations and reducing costs [26][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed disappointment with stock price performance but emphasized the resilience of the business model against regulatory changes [5][6] - The company is confident in achieving long-term growth targets of 5% to 7% adjusted EBITDA growth through 2027, supported by a strong backlog of projects [26][57] - Management highlighted the importance of renewables in meeting the increasing demand for electricity, particularly from technology customers [6][17] Other Important Information - The company signed 4.4 gigawatts of new power purchase agreements (PPAs) in 2024, aiming for 14 to 17 gigawatts by 2025 [7] - The sale of Brazilian assets was noted as a significant de-risking move, reducing exposure to various market risks [14] - The company plans to maintain a focus on larger, more profitable projects while reducing overall capital expenditures [27][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: On cost savings and their sources - The company confirmed that the $150 million in cost savings ramping to $300 million is ongoing and not one-time, with confidence in achieving these reductions [60][61] Question: On renewable CapEx and growth strategy - Management clarified that while CapEx is being cut, the focus remains on executing a strong pipeline, with a shift towards fewer but larger projects [71][73] Question: On asset sales and coal contributions - The company indicated that asset sales will include some coal exits and technology monetization, but the reliance on these sales has decreased [76][77] Question: On cost reduction specifics - The cost reduction program includes resizing the development team, cutting early-stage project costs, and a 10% workforce reduction [81][82] Question: On credit metrics and future outlook - Management discussed expectations for improving credit metrics, with a focus on increasing cash flow and EBITDA through operational efficiencies [86][95]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the valuation levels of the Hong Kong stock market, focusing on key indices and industry sectors [4][18]. - It highlights the current price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios across various industries, indicating which sectors are undervalued or overvalued [20][24]. Valuation of Key Indices - The report provides valuation insights for major indices such as the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) and the Hang Seng Index (HSI), but specific numerical data is not included in the provided text [6][10]. Industry Valuation Levels - The report identifies industries with low PE ratios, specifically noting that daily consumer goods and utilities are undervalued, with PE valuation percentiles below 20% [20]. - Other sectors with PE ratios below 40% include energy, discretionary consumption, and utilities [20]. - Industries with relatively high PE valuations (above 50%) include materials, healthcare, information technology, and telecommunications [20]. - For PB valuations, utilities are noted as being undervalued with percentiles below 10%, while materials, daily consumer goods, healthcare, and real estate are below 30% [24]. - Energy, discretionary consumption, and telecommunications are highlighted as having PB valuations above 50% [24]. AH Share Premium/Discount Levels - The report discusses the premium/discount levels of AH shares, but specific details or numerical data are not provided in the text [26].