南方财经12月26日电，在第三届华福证券财富管理论坛上，莲华资产管理公司管理合伙人、首席投资官 洪灏认为，美联储为缓解短端流动性紧张，将进入持续降息与扩表周期，这将推动风险资产价格上涨， 贵金属市场已率先开启历史性行情。他指出，黄金每轮周期约17年，当前正处于周期高点。标普与黄金 同涨的罕见行情，背后是全球货币体系的再重构。同时，白银长达60年的杯柄结构极具历史意义，其上 涨行情远未结束，"杯子"有多深，目标价就有多高，上涨空间就有多大。（21世纪经济报道）查看原 文：洪灏等大咖齐聚！华福证券发声：明年A股慢牛延续刚刚 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver is becoming one of the most sought-after trading assets for 2025, driven by structural supply shortages and strong industrial demand, with futures prices soaring 154% this year and approximately 40% this month alone [1] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The core logic behind the surge in silver prices is the market's re-evaluation of long-term structural deficits, with a cumulative deficit of approximately 800 million ounces over the past five years, nearly equivalent to a full year's mine supply [4] - The Silver Institute predicts that this deficit will persist for the next five years, with significant reductions in inventory at major exchanges like London, New York, and Shanghai contributing to a fundamental market shift [4] - Industrial demand is primarily driven by solar panel manufacturers, with advancements in technology expected to further increase silver consumption. Additionally, investment demand for silver ETFs is projected to reach nearly 200 million ounces this year, significantly exceeding previous forecasts of 70 million ounces [4] "Frenzy Phase" and $300 Price Target Logic - The $300 price target is based on a significant correction in the gold-silver ratio, which peaked at 104 in April and has since fallen to around 68. Predictions suggest this ratio could drop to 15 during the upcoming "frenzy phase" [5] - Using a current gold price of approximately $4,500, dividing by a ratio of 15 yields a silver target price of $300. While some forecasts are more aggressive (ranging from $800 to $1,000), the analysis presents a more conservative and realistic path [5] Short-term Outlook - The market position for silver is strong, having confirmed a support level at $50 in October. However, short-term corrections are expected, and while minor adjustments may occur, the key factors supporting the bullish trend are likely to remain in place for an extended period [6]

Group 1 - UBS Wealth Management predicts that the Chinese stock market will continue to have upward potential through 2026, driven by advanced manufacturing and technology as new growth engines [1] - The technology sector, which accounts for about half of the MSCI China Index, is becoming increasingly resilient to external shocks and U.S. economic cycles [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to see a 37% growth in earnings per share by 2026, with approximately 7 trillion RMB in excess household savings likely to flow into the stock market [1] Group 2 - Barclays anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in July and December of 2026, influenced by the spring wage negotiation cycle [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of wage negotiations as a key factor in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and its response to the risk of yen depreciation [2] Group 3 - OANDA reports that multiple factors are driving a historic surge in precious metals, with gold potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce and silver $90 per ounce in the coming year [3] - The report attributes the rise to speculative trading, low liquidity at year-end, expectations of long-term Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and increased geopolitical risks [3] - Platinum and palladium prices have surged due to supply constraints and strong industrial demand, with platinum up approximately 165% and palladium over 90% year-to-date [3] Group 4 - CICC suggests focusing on asset trend changes rather than specific gold price predictions, as current gold prices are above short-term valuation models, indicating potential bubbles [4] - The report anticipates that the gold bull market may not end soon, but volatility is expected to increase as prices deviate from fundamental indicators [4] - CICC maintains an optimistic outlook on Chinese assets, emphasizing the benefits of the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, while suggesting a focus on technology growth in the short term [5][6] Group 5 - CITIC Securities highlights the importance of maintaining macro liquidity stability through tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [6] - The report predicts a 5%-10% increase in the overall A-share market in 2026, with Hong Kong stocks expected to experience a rebound in performance [6] - The outlook for commodities includes expectations for gold to challenge $5,000 per ounce and copper prices to rise to $12,000 per ton due to supply constraints and demand drivers [6] Group 6 - CITIC Securities notes a trend of diminishing focus on quantitative targets by the People's Bank of China, with an emphasis on long-term structural reforms [7] - The report indicates that the central bank's policy may shift towards addressing supply-side issues and reducing financing costs [7] Group 7 - Huatai Securities states that the current appreciation of the RMB is likely to enhance foreign interest in RMB-denominated assets, creating a positive feedback loop for capital inflows [8] - The report suggests that the strengthening of the RMB will continue to support the valuation of both onshore and offshore RMB assets [8] Group 8 - CITIC Jin Investment reports that rising storage costs have begun to impact consumer electronics prices, with several manufacturers increasing product prices by 100-200 RMB [9] - The report indicates that the cost pressures from rising storage prices are likely to lead to a temporary decline in consumer electronics sales [9] Group 9 - Galaxy Securities notes that leading liquor companies are adjusting their strategies for 2026, focusing on maintaining price stability and channel profitability amid cyclical pressures [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of developing new consumer segments and adapting to new consumption trends as part of long-term transformation efforts [10]

12月26日，上期所发布关于做好市场风险控制工作的通知：近期国际形势复杂多变，有色金属和贵金属 品种波动较大，请各有关单位采取相应措施，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，理性投资，共同维护市场 平稳运行。 12月26日，上期所发布关于做好市场风险控制工作的通知：近期国际形势复杂多变，有色金属和贵金属 品种波动较大，请各有关单位采取相应措施，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，理性投资，共同维护市场 平稳运行。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 0.99% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 7th among 31 first-level industries [2][14] - Energy metals led the gains with a 5.58% increase, followed by small metals at 4.07%, precious metals at 2.19%, and new metal materials at 0.88% [2][14] - Significant price movements include a 14.62% increase in COMEX silver and a 21.88% rise in black tungsten concentrate [3][38] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 0.99% from December 8 to December 19, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index [14] - Energy metals saw the highest increase at 5.58%, followed by small metals (4.07%), precious metals (2.19%), and new metal materials (0.88%) [14] Precious Metals - As of December 19, 2025, COMEX gold closed at $4,369.70 per ounce, up 3.34% over two weeks, and up 63.55% year-to-date [3][23] - COMEX silver closed at $67.40 per ounce, up 14.62% over two weeks, and up 124.72% year-to-date [3][23] - The increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and a lower interest rate environment following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [24][27] Industrial Metals - LME copper closed at $11,845.00 per ton, up 1.72% over two weeks and up 36.38% year-to-date [31] - Domestic copper prices also increased, supported by steady demand from infrastructure projects and the renewable energy sector [31] - Recommendations include companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper [31] Small Metals - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose to 429,000 RMB per ton, up 21.88% over two weeks and up 200.00% year-to-date [38] - LME tin prices increased to $42,975 per ton, up 6.97% over two weeks and up 51.00% year-to-date [38] - Recommendations include companies like Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten [38] Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index was reported at 209.37, down 1.82% over two weeks but up 27.84% year-to-date [49] - Light rare earths showed mixed results, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide down 1.54% over two weeks but up 42.61% year-to-date [49][50] - Recommendations include companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth [50] Energy Metals - Electrolytic cobalt averaged 413,500 RMB per ton, unchanged over two weeks but up 189.16% year-to-date [58] - Lithium carbonate prices increased to 97,650 RMB per ton, up 4.72% over two weeks and up 30.03% year-to-date [61] - Recommendations include companies involved in lithium and cobalt production [61]

Group 1 - Global financial markets are showing signs of a year-end rally, with Asian stock markets reaching six-week highs despite some Western markets being closed for holidays [1][3] - The Japanese Topix index has reached an all-time high, while the South Korean benchmark index leads major global markets with a 72% annual increase [1][3] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index has hit a new high since mid-November, with an annual cumulative return of 25% [1][3] Group 2 - The commodities market has outperformed the stock market, with precious metals leading the charge; silver prices surged over 4% in a single day, breaking historical records, and gold prices surpassed $4,500 per ounce [1][3] - Gold prices have increased by over 71% this year, marking the strongest annual performance since 1979, while silver has seen an annual increase of 158% [1][3] - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to strategic reserve purchases by global central banks and investors' demand for hedging against rising sovereign debt [1][3] Group 3 - The US dollar index is under pressure due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with an anticipated weekly decline of 0.8%, marking the weakest week since July [2][4] - The Japanese yen is fluctuating around 156, as the market interprets the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike as relatively mild [2][4] - Japanese government bond yields have retreated from 26-year highs, alleviating some market anxiety [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in the prices of precious and non-ferrous metals in the Chinese commodity market, driven by various factors including supply constraints and macroeconomic conditions [2][3][8]. Price Movements - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals collectively saw a dramatic increase, with platinum futures reaching a record high of 709.85 yuan per gram, marking a monthly increase of 61.9% [3]. - Silver futures rose over 8.5% during the day, closing at 18,658 yuan per kilogram, with a total trading volume of 267.69 billion yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 8.12%, hitting a new high of 131,000 yuan per ton since November 2023 [6]. Market Drivers - The recent price surge is attributed to a combination of factors, including intensified market conditions for silver and copper futures, and a favorable macroeconomic environment [8]. - A key stimulus was a statement from the National Development and Reform Commission emphasizing the need for better management and optimization in resource-intensive industries, which raised expectations for supply constraints in copper and aluminum [9]. Macroeconomic Influences - The article notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve's potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy is a significant driver, with recent data showing an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts [12]. - Geopolitical tensions and conflicts have also heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased investments in safe-haven assets like gold and silver [12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand landscape for non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, is tightening due to several factors, including mining accidents and declining ore grades, which are expected to lead to a supply shortage by 2025 [15][16]. - The zinc market is also showing signs of recovery, with expectations of increased supply and demand balance, particularly as export opportunities open up [16]. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing a significant rebound in profitability, with revenues reaching 2.82 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, and net profits rising by 41.55% [18]. - Energy metals have shown the most substantial profit growth, with a staggering increase of 385.53% year-on-year [18]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on leading companies with strong resource reserves, scale, and integrated supply chains. It is advised to avoid chasing prices and instead adopt a phased approach to building positions [20]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests a potential bull market for non-ferrous metals, driven by a recovering global economy [21].

今日A股冲高回落，上方存在阶段性压力。板块层面多数上涨，受海内外贵金属涨幅扩大刺激，有色、 矿业、光伏等板块领涨，前期表现强势的半导体、芯片、人工智能等板块表现稍逊。截至收盘，上证指 数放量上涨，报3963.68点，上涨0.1%，深证成指涨0.54%，创业板指涨0.14%。个股层面跌多涨少，约 1800家上涨，3400余家下跌。成交方面，沪深两市成交额约2.18万亿元，较昨日放量超两千亿元，高位 分歧渐显。 本周市场持续单边运行，沪指日线录得八连阳，虽盘中多有反复，但紧贴五日线上涨，涨势颇强。周一 市场高开站上整数关口，上周的反弹趋势得以延续。周二，指数上探短周期高点附近便遇阻回落。周 三，外围贵金属突破重要阻力位置，商品市场的做多情绪扩散，受此影响A股重拾涨势。周四、周五， 随着单边行情的演进，市场中逐渐出现了些许恐高的情绪，以高位盘整走势为主。 落到操作层面，"核心底仓+卫星轮动"的组合策略或是行情中段进可攻退可守的较优选择。核心方面， 虽然近期市场颇为震荡，但一旦出现新的热点催化，行情或随时到来，底仓的配置可以避免情绪化的追 涨杀跌等非理性操作，推荐中证A500ETF(159338)捕捉中国经济中长期投 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the era of "cheap money" has ended, as indicated by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance and higher terminal interest rate expectations, marking a structural phase in the fight against inflation rather than a short-term cyclical adjustment [1] - Investors should closely monitor inflation data in January and February 2026 to see if the "tariff transmission effect" begins to reflect in end consumer prices, with the resilience of the labor market and the direction of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield being key indicators for the Fed's ability to achieve a soft landing or initiate a tighter monetary policy [1] - The current market keyword is "vigilance," as global financial markets are adapting to a new paradigm where 3.5% is seen as a new lower bound for interest rates rather than a ceiling [1] Group 2 - In terms of technical analysis, gold is currently in a strong bullish trend, with recommendations to maintain long positions despite potential adjustments, as the overall trend remains intact [1] - Specific resistance levels for gold are noted at 4550 and 4575, while support levels are at 4492 and 4467, suggesting light position trading around these points with defined risk management strategies [2]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively surged, with copper leading at a 3.6% increase, reaching a record high of 99,730 yuan/ton [1] - Aluminum rose by 1.06%, lead by 1.68%, tin by 1.37%, and nickel by 1.31%, while zinc increased by 0.72% [1] - Alumina futures saw a significant rise of 5.6%, hitting a peak of 2,830 yuan/ton, marking a new high since November 2024 [1] - Lithium carbonate futures skyrocketed by 8.12%, reaching 131,000 yuan/ton, a new high since November 2023 [1] - The black metal sector experienced a downturn, with stainless steel remaining stable at 12,955 yuan/ton, while iron ore rose by 0.71% [1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold increased by 0.86%, reaching a peak of $4,561.6/oz, continuing to set a historical high [2] - COMEX silver surged by 4.38%, hitting a record high of $75.495/oz [2] - Domestic gold rose by 0.75%, reaching a historical high of 1,023.96 yuan/gram, while silver increased by 6.6%, reaching 18,658 yuan/kg [2] - Platinum futures rose by 9.29%, reaching a historical high of 709.85 yuan/gram before slightly retracting [2] Macroeconomic Developments - The National Venture Capital Guiding Fund focuses on cutting-edge fields such as AI, biopharmaceuticals, quantum technology, and 6G, aiming to leverage trillions in social capital [5] - The fund will adopt a three-tier structure to attract local governments, financial institutions, and enterprises, with a focus on long-term investments [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced increased investment in early-stage projects in integrated circuits, AI, aerospace, and low-altitude economy [6][7] - As of November, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [7] Oil Market - Both U.S. and Brent crude oil prices rose slightly, with U.S. oil up by 0.26% and Brent by 0.19% [13] - Oil prices are expected to face the largest annual decline since 2020, with Brent and U.S. crude projected to drop approximately 17% and 18%, respectively [13] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official inventory data, reflecting demand from the world's largest oil consumer [13]