- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis [1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market trends, valuation metrics, and style performance without detailing quantitative models or factor construction [1][2][3] - No formulas, construction processes, or backtesting results for quantitative models or factors are provided in the report [1][2][3]

光大证券研报认为，市场热度仍有望持续，不过需要关注1月中旬之后到春节前市场逐步降温的可能。 一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。另 一方面，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极流入。持续上涨之后，关注1月 中旬之后到春节前市场逐步降温的可能。行业方面，关注电子、电力设备、有色金属等。若市场风格为 成长，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为电子、电力设备、通信、有色金属、汽车、国防军工； 若1月份市场风格为防御，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为非银金融、电子、有色金属、电力 设备、汽车、交通运输等。两种风格假设下，得分靠前行业具有一定的相似性。主题方面，继续关注商 业航天。商业航天板块自建议关注以来已经出现持续多周大幅上涨的现象。特别是其对标的二级行业指 数及相关主题类指数，如航天装备、商业航天等短期累计涨幅较大，热度较高。我们认为尽管板块短期 存在获利了结的压力，但由于政策利好频发，叠加资金活跃，板块支撑基础稳固。若出现阶段性回调， 仍是投资者逢低介入的良机。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment is improving, with December 2025 PMI and inflation data showing a seasonal rebound, indicating better demand and supply conditions [9][12][24] - Various commodity prices have shown signs of recovery from their lows since mid-December 2025, with non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and black raw materials leading the recovery [9][12] - The micro-funding environment remains ample, with institutional funds providing incremental support, and trading funds expected to gradually recover, enhancing market liquidity [12][24] Group 2 - The thematic market is very active, with potential for further index uplift if the themes can expand into relatively low sectors [16][24] - Future thematic allocations should focus on sectors with price increase expectations supported by performance, such as non-ferrous metals, power battery supply chains, and chemicals [17][24] - Other areas of interest include themes that may see policy or unexpected technological breakthroughs, such as AI applications and tourism consumption [17][24] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current market conditions may favor a bullish sentiment, with the potential for a spring market rebound if the thematic trends continue to spread [8][16] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of various sectors and themes, particularly those that are expected to benefit from policy support and technological advancements [17][24] - The report emphasizes the need for caution regarding potential volatility in the short term, especially in high-demand technology themes like commercial aerospace and satellite internet [17][24]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term, with opportunities for investors to strategically position themselves before the Chinese New Year [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share market has shown strong upward momentum, with major indices like the Wind All A, CSI 300, and CSI 2000 rising by 5.11%, 2.79%, and 6.54% respectively this week [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 3.82%, surpassing 4100 points and achieving a 16-day consecutive increase, marking a significant trend [2]. - Daily trading volume has increased, with the average daily turnover reaching 2.85 trillion yuan, and a single-day turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating a strong influx of new capital [2]. Sector Analysis - The robotics sector has seen continuous net inflows, indicating it remains a key focus area for investment [1]. - The commercial aerospace sector is also experiencing strong capital inflows, but its trading density is at historical highs, suggesting a shift from a primary upward phase to a "theme diffusion" phase [1][3]. - Other sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, sports and consumer services, and non-ferrous metals are showing signs of sustained capital inflows, making them potential structural investment opportunities [1]. Industry Highlights - The technology sector has been a strong market driver, with significant gains in media (13.11%), computer (8.50%), and electronics (7.74%) industries [3]. - The defense and military industry has surged by 13.63%, influenced by geopolitical events and the ongoing development of commercial aerospace [3]. - Non-ferrous metals have also risen by 8.56%, supported by strong demand and strategic reserves [3]. Future Outlook - The upward trend in indices is likely to continue as long as trading volume remains robust, with average daily turnover increasing by 51.63% compared to the previous month [4]. - The market is expected to focus on technology sectors and resource demand, with a potential shift towards less crowded segments within technology [4]. - The growth of northbound and leveraged funds is providing strong momentum for the market, with margin financing balances steadily breaking previous highs [4].

Group 1 - In December 2025, the enthusiasm for stock buybacks in the A-share market significantly increased, with both the number of companies announcing buyback plans and the total amount seeing substantial growth [1] - A total of 35 companies announced new buyback plans in December, representing an increase of nearly 60% compared to 22 companies in November [1] - The total proposed buyback amount for these 35 companies reached approximately 10.548 billion yuan, a 54.89% increase from 6.81 billion yuan in November [1] - Among these companies, 24 planned to buy back over 100 million yuan, accounting for 68.57% of the total [1] Group 2 - State-owned enterprises and industry leaders showed prominent performance in the buyback announcements, with notable companies like China Metallurgical Group and Dong'e Ejiao participating [1] - The companies with the highest proposed buyback amounts included China Metallurgical Group (2.5 billion yuan), Luxshare Precision (2 billion yuan), ZTE Corporation (1.2 billion yuan), and others, highlighting the financial strength and market responsibility of leading enterprises [1]

Group 1 - The short-term market enthusiasm is expected to continue, but there is a possibility of gradual cooling after mid-January leading up to the Spring Festival [1] - Policies are likely to continue to exert influence, with economic growth expected to remain within a reasonable range, further solidifying the foundation for the capital market's prosperous development [1] - The release of policy dividends is anticipated to boost market confidence and attract various types of capital inflows [1] Group 2 - Attention is drawn to sectors such as electronics, electrical equipment, and non-ferrous metals [1]

Core Insights - The northbound trading of the Stock Connect has shown significant enthusiasm from foreign capital, with a total trading volume exceeding 200 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a historical high and reflecting strong confidence in the long-term investment value of the Chinese capital market [1][5] Group 1: Holdings Overview - As of the end of Q4 2025, northbound funds held a total of 4,014 securities, with a stable overall holding scale [1] - The holdings of foreign capital exhibit a "head concentration" feature, with over 213 stocks having more than 100 million shares held, and 37 stocks exceeding 500 million shares [1] - Notable stocks favored by northbound funds include JD.com, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Zijin Mining, Agricultural Bank of China, and others, with holdings exceeding 1 billion shares, primarily in low-valuation or high-dividend sectors [1] Group 2: Trading Activity - In Q4 2025, northbound funds engaged in significant portfolio adjustments, increasing holdings in over 1,600 stocks, with more than 1,000 stocks seeing an increase of over 1 million shares [2] - The top ten stocks with the largest increases in holdings included China Aluminum, Weichai Power, and others, each with increases exceeding 100 million shares [2][4] - The trading activity of northbound funds has notably increased, with a daily trading volume exceeding 300 billion yuan for four consecutive trading days, indicating a strong return of foreign capital to A-shares [4] Group 3: Long-term Trends - Since the establishment of the Stock Connect mechanism, the cumulative trading volume of northbound funds has surpassed 200 trillion yuan, with 2025's total trading volume reaching 50.33 trillion yuan, a growth of over 40% compared to 2024 [5] - The significant increase in trading volume and the focus on bank and resource stocks in Q4 2025 signal multiple positive trends, including sustained foreign interest in Chinese assets and a balanced investment strategy [5] - The ongoing optimization of capital market systems and deepening of openness are expected to lead to more normalized and rational flows of northbound funds, providing stable liquidity support for the A-share market [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - AI, defense, and new energy sectors drive global copper demand growth. Goldman Sachs raises the 2026 copper price forecast, and the supply - demand gap continues to widen [4]. - Copper ore processing fees decline, smelters' losses expand, and miners' production turns to a year - on - year decrease. Resource shortages shift from expectation to reality [4]. - SMM social inventory increases by 19,600 tons to 273,800 tons weekly, and the inventory accumulation pressure restrains the spot market performance [4]. - High copper prices suppress downstream procurement, terminal orders slow down, the refined - scrap copper price difference remains at 4,401 yuan/ton, and scrap copper substitution advantage is obvious [4]. - In the short term, copper prices face downward pressure and correction due to capital profit - taking and inventory accumulation. In the medium term, the demand logic of AI and energy transition remains unchanged, and copper prices may continue a relatively strong pattern after adjustment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 101,410 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. The position is 188,674, with a weekly decrease of 19,572, and the trading volume is 303,818 [6]. - The latest price of SHFE Copper Index - weighted is 101,451 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.20%. The position is 617,743, with a weekly decrease of 41,184, and the trading volume is 594,678 [6]. - The latest price of International Copper is 90,150 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.59%. The position is 7,403, with a weekly increase of 189, and the trading volume is 15,155 [6]. - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 12,702 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.64%. The position is 239,014, with a weekly decrease of 38,282, and the trading volume is 35,292 [6]. - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 580.6 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 1.97%. The position is 143,390, with a weekly increase of 477, and the trading volume is 66,816 [6]. Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 102,085 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,465 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.57% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Material Trade is 102,530 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,955 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.08% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 102,560 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,900 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.02% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 102,620 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,810 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.92% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 45 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 145 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 76.32% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Material Trade premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 215 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 81.13% [11]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is - 20 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 235 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 92.16% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium/discount is 5 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 130 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 104% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is 16.75 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 13.64 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 44.88% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is 101.46 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 73.34 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 41.96% [11]. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 788.51 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 700.97 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 47.06% [12]. - The latest copper concentrate TC is - 44.76 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 0 and a weekly change rate of 0% [12]. - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 4.1569, with a weekly decrease of 0.1998 and a weekly decrease rate of 4.59% [12]. - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 4,834.4 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,339.13 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 38.31% [12]. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The latest total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 111,216 tons, with a weekly increase of 29,441 tons and a weekly increase rate of 36% [18]. - The latest total International Copper warehouse receipts are 1,053 tons, with a weekly change of 0 and a weekly change rate of 0% [18]. - The latest SHFE copper inventory is 145,342 tons, with a weekly increase of 33,639 tons and a weekly increase rate of 30.11% [18]. - The latest LME copper registered warehouse receipts are 115,150 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,550 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.11% [18]. - The latest LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 25,925 tons, with a weekly decrease of 10,900 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 29.6% [19]. - The latest LME copper inventory is 141,075 tons, with a weekly decrease of 6,350 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 4.31% [19]. - The latest COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts are 321,107 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,756 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.8% [19]. - The latest COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 193,850 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,140 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.38% [19]. - The latest COMEX copper inventory is 514,957 tons, with a weekly increase of 16,896 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.39% [19]. - The latest copper ore port inventory is 670,000 tons, with a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 1.47% [19]. - The latest social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19]. Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In November 2025, the monthly refined copper production is 1.236 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The cumulative production is 13.323 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8% [22]. - In November 2025, the monthly copper product production is 2.226 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. The cumulative production is 22.593 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [22]. Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In November 2025, the total annual production capacity of refined copper rods is 15.84 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 63.31%, with a monthly increase of 7.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% [24]. - In November 2025, the total annual production capacity of scrap copper rods is 8.19 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 23.59%, with a monthly decrease of 0.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.73% [24]. - In December 2025, the total annual production capacity of copper strips is 3.59 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 64.48%, with a monthly decrease of 1.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [24]. - In December 2025, the total annual production capacity of copper rods is 2.2865 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 56.72%, with a monthly increase of 2.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.46% [24]. - In December 2025, the total annual production capacity of copper tubes is 2.783 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 61.59%, with a monthly increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.99% [24]. Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In November 2025, the monthly copper concentrate import volume is 2.526194 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 13%. The cumulative import volume is 27.615499 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [28]. - In November 2025, the monthly anode copper import volume is 58,333 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 16%. The cumulative import volume is 688,621 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15% [28]. - In November 2025, the monthly cathode copper import volume is 269,205 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 25%. The cumulative import volume is 3,085,712 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8% [28]. - In November 2025, the monthly scrap copper import volume is 208,143 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20%. The cumulative import volume is 2,103,603 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% [28]. - In November 2025, the monthly copper product import volume is 430,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The cumulative import volume is 4,880,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [28].

Group 1 - The short-term market heat is expected to continue, but there is a possibility of gradual cooling after mid-January until the Spring Festival [1][4] - Policy support is likely to persist, and economic growth is expected to remain within a reasonable range, further solidifying the foundation for the capital market's prosperous development [1][4] - The release of policy dividends is expected to boost market confidence and attract various types of capital inflows [1][4] Group 2 - The A-share market continued to rise this week, driven by an increase in market risk appetite, with major indices generally showing upward trends [2] - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index performed the best with a gain of 9.8%, while the CSI 300 index had the lowest performance with a gain of 2.8% [2] - Among industries, the comprehensive, defense, and media sectors performed relatively well, with gains of 14.5%, 13.6%, and 13.1% respectively [2] Group 3 - Key events this week included a meeting between President Xi Jinping and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, and the issuance of the "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" implementation opinions [3] - Economic data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year in December, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month but fell by 1.9% year-on-year [3] - The 2026 Consumer Electronics Show was held, and the market regulator held discussions with the photovoltaic industry association and several leading companies [3] Group 4 - The focus remains on industries such as electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with a potential shift in market style influencing sector performance [4] - The commercial aerospace sector has shown significant gains since being recommended for attention, with high short-term cumulative increases in related indices [4] - Despite potential profit-taking pressures in the commercial aerospace sector, the solid support from frequent policy benefits and active capital suggests it remains a good opportunity for investors to enter on dips [4]

北向陆股通资金2025年第四季度持股情况已经出炉。 近期随着A股市场交投进一步趋向活跃，北向陆股通资金的交投活跃度也有进一步提升，已连续4个交易日超过3000亿元。 北向资金2025年第四季度持股动向出炉 根据香港交易所网站披露的资料，北向陆股通（含沪股通和深股通，下同）2025年第四季度末的持股数据正式披露，北向陆股通资金在2025年第四季度的 持股动向也初步浮出水面。 数据显示，截至2025年四季度末，北向陆股通资金合计持有4014只证券（含股票和ETF），总体持仓情况保持相对稳定。 从具体个股的持股数量上看，截至2025年第四季度末，北向陆股通资金在213只股票上的持股数量超过1亿股，其中在37只股票上的持股数量超过5亿股。 这里面，北向陆股通资金在京东方A、工商银行、紫金矿业、农业银行、招商银行、京沪高铁、长江电力、三一重工、TCL科技等9只股票上的持股数量 甚至超过10亿股。 | 证券简称 | 市场类型 | 持股数量(亿股) | 所属申万一级行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 京东方A | 深般通 | 27.6 | 电子 | | 工商银行 | 沪股通 | 17.45 | ...