2026年02月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：关注今日市场情绪变化 | 4 | | 工业硅：下方空间不深 | 6 | | 多晶硅：行业会议情绪积极，或提振盘面 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 5 日 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 137,680 | 2,850 | -6,690 | -5,380 | 3,58 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's non-ferrous metal sector experienced significant declines, with Tianqi Lithium Industries (09696.HK) dropping over 10% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) and Minmetals Resources (01208.HK) both fell by more than 5% [1] - Other companies such as Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK), and Zijin Mining International (02259.HK) also saw declines [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI field is experiencing accelerated model iteration due to the increasing stock of chips, with a clear trend of model differentiation, leading to strategic choices between To B and To C for different AI labs [1] - The recent performance of Clawdbot highlights the strong capabilities of large models and the demand for open-source and offline model applications among developers [1] Group 2 - The company remains optimistic about quality companies in the overseas computing power chain, despite recent market fluctuations due to funding factors, expecting renewed market focus on excellent companies as major firms report sequential earnings growth [2] - The volatility in the non-ferrous metals sector is influenced by various geopolitical events, leading to a surge in de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases, with precious metals like silver and gold driving the price increases of constrained supply metals such as copper and aluminum [2] - Following the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair, extreme bullish positions in gold and silver have seen a correction, indicating a potential period of consolidation for the sector [2] Group 3 - The medium-term outlook suggests that price adjustments following overheated sentiment will not alter the upward trend of precious and non-ferrous metals, driven by U.S. debt issues and ongoing central bank gold purchases [3] - The company maintains a positive outlook for the equity market in 2026 while remaining vigilant about potential risk events, advocating for an active and diversified investment approach [3] - AI-driven technological innovation remains a market focus, with expectations of increasing commercial applications and ongoing infrastructure bottlenecks in computing power, including GPUs, power infrastructure, storage, and CPUs [3] Group 4 - The insurance industry is highlighted for its growth potential based on rapid expansion on the liability side and sustainable returns on the investment side [4] - There is a continued positive outlook for gold, copper, aluminum, and rare metals in the medium to long term, while caution is advised regarding short-term reactions in futures prices and stock prices [4] Group 5 - The lithium battery supply chain, internet, gaming, and offshore wind industries are maintained as key areas of focus and investment [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Chinese commodity price index has shown a continuous upward trend for nine months, reaching a three-and-a-half-year high in January 2026, with a month-on-month increase of 6.3% [1] - In January 2026, the Chinese commodity price index stood at 125.3 points, with 33 out of 50 monitored commodities experiencing price increases [1] - Key commodities with significant price increases include lithium carbonate, refined tin, and refined nickel, which rose by 48.4%, 20.2%, and 19.5% respectively compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - From an industry perspective, the price indices for non-ferrous metals and chemical products have risen significantly, increasing by 9.9% and 3.8% respectively, influenced by expectations of loose international monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and futures market dynamics [3] - The agricultural product market has shown a slight recovery in price index, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, indicating a balance in supply and demand [3] Group 3 - Experts suggest that the rise in the commodity price index in January reflects a general stabilization and positive trend in the market, but also warns of increased volatility in international financial markets and the need for enhanced risk assessment and macro policy adjustments to maintain stability in supply chains [5]

A股开盘，三大指数集体低开，沪指跌0.66%报4075.03点，深证成指跌0.96%，创业板指跌1.02%。盘面 上，黄金、有色金属、光伏设备及存储芯片板块集体调整。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows a weakening trend, with the January ADP employment falling short of expectations, leading to a weakening of market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar. The short - term outlook for the US economy is mixed, with the employment market cooling while the service sector shows mild expansion and inflation pressure remaining [2][18]. - Gold prices fluctuate and close higher. The inflow of bottom - fishing funds lacks sustainability. Geopolitical risks persist, and the progress of the US - Iran negotiation falls short of expectations, increasing the long - short game in the gold market [3][14]. - The bond market has many potential negative factors, and the probability of weakening after a sideways movement is high. It is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [4][27]. - In the sugar market, the production and sales pressure of sugar mills in Guangxi is large, and the sales pressure is expected to further increase in the later stage of the crushing season. The domestic sugar market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [5][42]. - After a significant macro - level cooling, zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage [6]. - The US propane inventory has decreased significantly, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to narrow next week [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key points: The cancellation of the US - Iran negotiation on Friday, the inflow of bottom - fishing funds in the gold market with limited sustainability, the repeated short - term geopolitical situation, and the increase in the long - short game. It is recommended to wait for the volatility to decline before making allocations [3][14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Key points: The Fed decides to keep the capital requirements of large - scale banks unchanged in 2026. The January ADP employment in the US is lower than expected, the labor market weakens, the market risk appetite weakens, and the US dollar rebounds in the short term [16][18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The performance guidance of AMD is lower than expected, the Q4 revenue of Google's cloud business grows by 48%, but the large - scale capital expenditure in the future causes stock price fluctuations. During the earnings season, the US stock market is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The Shanghai Composite Index recovers and returns to 4100 points. Affected by news, coal stocks drive the pro - cyclical blue - chip sector to recover. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures and evenly allocate the three major stock indexes [24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Key points: The central bank conducts a 75 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is likely to weaken after a sideways movement, and it is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Key points: Some Indonesian coal mines suspend offering due to production quota issues. The Indonesian side has a clear demand for production cut and price protection, and the bottom of coal prices is more solid, but the upward elasticity needs to be observed [28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Key points: The iron ore project of Atlas Iron is approved by the government. The iron ore price maintains a weak oscillation. The downstream restocking is completed, and the supply is at a high level. The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [30]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Key points: Brazil imposes anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Indian color - coated sheets. The steel price continues to oscillate. The steel price is less affected by the rise in coal prices, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with an oscillatory mindset [31][33][34]. 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - Key points: The coking coal price in the Linfen market is weakly stable. The supply may shrink during the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the Indonesian event, showing a strong oscillation [36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Key points: India's sugar production increases, and the sugar production in Guangxi decreases. The production and sales rate is at a low level, and the sugar mill's sales pressure is expected to increase. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40][42]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Key points: Malaysia's palm oil inventory may decline in January. The US Treasury Department issues the 45Z proposed rule. It is recommended to focus on relevant data and conferences and consider going long on dips [43][45][46]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Key points: Sigma Lithium resumes mining operations, and Fulin Jinggong and CATL increase capital in Jiangxi Shenghua. The production and demand of lithium carbonate decline in February, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to go long on dips after the position and volatility stabilize [47][49][51]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Key points: The LME lead shows a discount. The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The lead price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to medium - term long positions [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Key points: The LME zinc shows a discount, and Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 decreases by 15% quarter - on - quarter. Zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][55]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Key points: Chile releases a key mineral strategy, and the EU proposes a key mineral partnership with the US. The macro - sentiment supports copper prices, but the short - term spot structure is loose. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Key points: The LME tin shows a discount. The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery and consumption improvement [59][60][61]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Key points: The US propane inventory decreases significantly, but the supply is still abundant. It is recommended to wait and see due to various disturbances [62]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Key points: The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries decreases. The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price fluctuates greatly [62][63][65]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises increases. The LLDPE price may oscillate strongly driven by cost, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [66]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese methanol ports decreases. Due to the increasing geopolitical risks, the previous short - selling strategy is no longer valid, and it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [67]. 2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Key points: Ports in the Mediterranean and Chittagong go on strike. The Middle - East geopolitical situation supports the high - level oscillation of the market. The downward space of the spot price is limited [68][69][70].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the decline in three-month copper prices due to a stronger dollar and increased metal supply in exchange inventories, with copper closing at $13,044.50 per ton, down $433.50 or 3.22% [1][2] - The copper market has seen a cumulative decline of 10% since reaching a historical high of $14,527.50 per ton, driven by speculation from precious metals markets and concerns over weak demand and rising inventories [3] - The LME copper inventory has increased to its highest level since March 2025, reaching 155,725 tons, further intensifying pressure on copper prices [6] Group 2 - Other base metals also experienced fluctuations, with three-month nickel down 0.39% to $17,379 per ton, while Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 nickel price forecast due to a decrease in Indonesian nickel supply [7][8] - Three-month aluminum fell by 1.19% to $3,069.50 per ton, and three-month zinc decreased by 0.88% to $3,309.00 per ton, indicating a general downward trend in base metal prices [8] - Three-month lead saw a slight increase of 0.15%, closing at $1,966.50 per ton, while three-month tin dropped by 3.9% to $48,160 per ton [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The international capital market is optimistic about China's economic transformation and development prospects in 2026, with major foreign investment banks recommending increased allocations to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating a shift towards a dual-driven phase of profit improvement and valuation uplift [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Environment and Trends - In 2026, the investment focus is expected to be on "industrial innovation-driven + profit realization + resource supply-demand optimization," with emphasis on technology innovation, high-end manufacturing, and cyclical recovery [2][16]. - The global economic landscape in 2025 showed resilient growth amid uncertainties, with emerging markets becoming the main growth engines, which, combined with China's policy support and industrial upgrades, creates structural opportunities in the capital market [3][4]. - The investment environment is anticipated to shift from single valuation recovery to a dual-driven phase of profit improvement and valuation uplift [3][4]. Group 2: Capital Inflows and Funding Sources - The most certain source of incremental capital in 2026 is expected to be insurance funds, with foreign capital gradually shifting from trading to allocation, particularly in high-end manufacturing and technology sectors [2][7]. - Resident savings represent a significant potential slow variable, with some funds expected to migrate to equity markets through wealth management and public funds [2][7]. - The structure of incremental capital in 2026 is likely to be characterized by "multiple channels, low volatility, and long cycles," with insurance funds, foreign capital, and resident savings being the main contributors [7]. Group 3: Sector Opportunities and Focus Areas - The technology sector remains the main line of industry allocation, with a focus on the performance visibility and elasticity of computing infrastructure and key hardware being higher than that of application layers [8][10]. - High-end manufacturing and advanced industrial systems are expected to continue benefiting from manufacturing upgrades, while energy transition and new power systems are also important directions for investment [10]. - Industries related to resource security and supply chain safety, such as non-ferrous metals and key materials, are anticipated to have stable medium- to long-term demand support [10]. Group 4: Risk Assessment and Market Dynamics - The evolution of risks related to real estate and local government debt is transitioning from "emergency response" to "long-term management," while external demand uncertainty is identified as the most significant variable affecting the market in 2026 [5][6]. - The core of external demand uncertainty lies in the unpredictable external environment, which can directly disrupt domestic economic recovery and influence macro policy adjustments [6]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Recommendations - For balanced investors in 2026, an initial asset allocation recommendation is 55%-60% in stocks, 30%-35% in bonds, and 5%-10% in gold, focusing on capturing structural opportunities in hard technology, high-end manufacturing, and cyclical upgrades [12][13]. - Stocks should be the core allocation, while bonds can provide stability against market volatility, and gold should serve as a long-term strategic asset to hedge against geopolitical risks and external demand fluctuations [14][15].

Group 1 - The central government is focusing on agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, with practical policies to address farmers' urgent needs [5][23] - The 2026 Central Document emphasizes a combination of goal-oriented and problem-oriented approaches to implement effective measures [5][23] - The People's Bank of China is enhancing coordination with fiscal policies and strengthening financial support in the consumer sector [2][9][27] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is accelerating the development of key standards for driving automation and vehicle safety [3][20] - The commercial aerospace sector in China is experiencing a surge in IPO activities, with brokerage firms becoming significant stakeholders [6][24] - The mining equipment sector is benefiting from rising prices of metals, leading to increased capital expenditures from mining companies [7][25][29] Group 3 - The AI drama market is booming, with projections indicating a user base growth from 120 million in 2025 to 280 million by 2026 [10][28] - The semiconductor industry is recovering significantly, with over half of the listed companies expected to report profit growth [12][30][31] - The smart retail market is projected to reach approximately 64.5 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 22% [17][35]

Core Insights - The article highlights the accelerated pace of institutional research on A-share listed companies as they release their 2025 performance forecasts, indicating a proactive approach to investment strategies for the new year [1] Group 1: Institutional Research Trends - Over 700 A-share listed companies have received institutional research since the beginning of the year, with over 20 companies attracting more than 100 institutions each [1] - Key sectors attracting attention include electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, with power equipment and non-ferrous metals also being closely monitored [1] Group 2: New Product Launches - Several companies have announced accelerated timelines for new product mass production, showcasing confidence in growth for the new year [2] - Nepean Mining revealed plans to globally promote its innovative composite liner product in 2026, supported by the gradual production ramp-up of overseas facilities [2] - Huqin Technology's robotics division is set to deliver mass-produced robots in 2026, following significant advancements in R&D and project execution [2] - Jiemai Technology is investing in a production line for critical products, with mass production expected by mid-2026 [2] Group 3: Brain-Computer Interface Developments - Companies like Xiangyu Medical and Aipeng Medical are focusing on brain-computer interface technologies, with Xiangyu Medical planning to launch nearly 100 products by the end of 2026 [3] - The integration of software with rehabilitation equipment is expected to enhance product offerings and market competitiveness [3] Group 4: Industry Expansion and Growth - The demand for AI and computing power is driving growth in sectors like optical communication and liquid cooling, prompting companies to accelerate production capacity [4] - Daikin Heavy Industries reported a tight production schedule for overseas projects, anticipating significant growth in offshore wind energy markets [4] - Zhongji Xuchuang noted a strong order backlog extending into Q4 2026, indicating sustained high demand in the industry [4] Group 5: Storage and Liquid Cooling Innovations - Dike Technology plans to increase its storage chip output target to between 30 million and 50 million units in 2026, aiming to enhance revenue and net profit [5] - Dingtong Technology is expanding its liquid cooling production capabilities to meet rising customer demand [5] - Haitai Ruisheng is building a second overseas delivery base in Southeast Asia, expected to support significant orders from major tech clients [5] Group 6: Mergers and Acquisitions - Companies are increasingly pursuing mergers and acquisitions to enter new markets and drive growth [6] - Yingtang Zhikong plans to acquire Guanglong Integration and Aojian Microelectronics to enter the optical communication sector [6] - Dinglong Co. is acquiring Haofei New Materials to tap into the lithium battery functional materials market, with expected sales growth in 2026 [6] Group 7: Strategic Investments - Tianlu Technology is reallocating funds to projects aimed at enhancing its product offerings in the display industry, with equipment for the TAC film project expected to be operational by mid-2026 [7]