Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance from an analyst-recommended stock pool[14][15] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Construct an analyst-recommended stock pool based on three types of analyst recommendation events: upward earnings forecast revisions, initial analyst coverage, and analyst report titles exceeding expectations[15] - **Step 2**: Perform dual-layer selection on the analyst-recommended stock pool using fundamental and technical dimensions to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance[15] - **Step 3**: The backtest period for the Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio is from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2025. Considering transaction costs in a fully invested state, the portfolio's annualized return is 19.08%, with an excess return of 18.06% relative to the Hang Seng Index[15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a strong performance with significant excess returns over the Hang Seng Index, indicating its effectiveness in stock selection[15] Model Backtest Results - **Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio**: - **Annualized Return**: 19.08%[15] - **Excess Return**: 18.06% relative to the Hang Seng Index[15] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.19[20] - **Tracking Error**: 14.60%[20] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[20] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.76[20] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Stable New High Stocks - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aims to identify stocks that have recently reached new highs and exhibit stable price paths, leveraging the momentum and trend-following strategies that are particularly effective in the Hong Kong market[21] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Calculate the 250-day new high distance using the formula: $$ 250 \text{ day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $$ where $Close_t$ is the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[23] - **Step 2**: Screen stocks that have reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and new high continuity[23] - **Step 3**: Select stocks with the following criteria: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 6 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in terms of price change over the past 250 days - Price path stability: Top 50% based on price displacement ratio and 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuity: Top 50 stocks based on the 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days[24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures stocks with strong momentum and stable price paths, which are likely to continue their upward trends[21][23] Factor Backtest Results - **Stable New High Stocks**: - **Example Stocks**: J&T Express-W, China Eastern Airlines, Youran Dairy, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, China XLX Fertilizer, etc.[23][29] - **Sector Distribution**: Most new high stocks are in the cyclical sector, followed by finance, technology, consumer, manufacturing, and healthcare sectors[23][29]

Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign institutions are increasingly enthusiastic about allocating assets in China, reflecting expectations of economic stabilization and the attractiveness of undervalued Hong Kong stocks [2][9] - In the first trading days of 2026, JPMorgan Chase significantly increased its holdings in several Hong Kong-listed companies across various sectors, including new energy and biomedicine [1][4][8] Group 2: Specific Investments by JPMorgan - JPMorgan Chase invested over 700 million HKD to increase its stakes in multiple Hong Kong stocks, including approximately 793,478 shares of Ningde Times at an average price of 514.76 HKD per share, totaling around 408 million HKD [4][6] - The bank also acquired shares in other companies such as Sinopharm and Ganfeng Lithium, with notable investments including 317.3 million shares of Sinopharm at an average price of 78.45 HKD, amounting to about 249 million HKD [6] Group 3: Broader Market Sentiment - The trend of foreign capital inflow into Chinese technology ETFs has been strong, with funds like Invesco's China Technology ETF seeing a 6.53% increase in assets to 3 billion USD since the end of 2025 [12][14] - Analysts believe that the long-term growth logic of China's technology sector remains solid, with expectations for continued performance in 2026, particularly in AI and advanced manufacturing [15][16] Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 suggests that foreign capital will continue to actively invest in China's advanced industries, with a focus on sectors like biomedicine and new energy, which have shown strong appeal to foreign investors [8][10] - Predictions indicate that the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index could rise by 20% and 12% respectively in 2026, driven by accelerated corporate earnings growth [10]

Group 1 - Industrial metal prices, including copper and aluminum, have surged due to concerns over tightening supply, increased exports to the U.S., and heightened investor enthusiasm for commodities [1] - Nickel, tin, and copper prices in the London market have risen by over 2%, with copper expected to return to its historical high of over $13,300 per ton [1] - The LMEX index, tracking six base metals, is on track for its fourth consecutive week of gains, marking the longest streak since August [1] Group 2 - The surge in copper prices is driven by fears of potential U.S. import tariffs, leading to increased shipments to the U.S. and tightening inventories elsewhere [1] - Recent disruptions in global mining operations have heightened concerns about the supply of copper, which is critical for electrification, traditional manufacturing, and construction [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their copper price forecast for the first half of the year to $12,750 per ton, but expect prices to decline in the second half as Chinese physical buyers remain cautious [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4100-point mark for the first time in nearly a decade, indicating a positive market sentiment and increased trading volume [1][4]. Market Performance - On January 9, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43 points, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.15% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.77% [2]. - The total market turnover exceeded 3.15 trillion yuan, marking the fifth time in history that it has surpassed the 3 trillion yuan threshold [5]. - Over 3900 stocks in the market rose, with 110 companies hitting the daily limit up, reflecting a vibrant market atmosphere [5]. Sector Analysis - The leading sectors on January 9 included media, defense, computer, and non-ferrous metals, driven by expectations of AI applications and supportive policies for commercial aerospace [6]. - The AI application concept saw significant gains, with over twenty stocks hitting the daily limit up, while the commercial aerospace sector continued its strong performance [6]. Institutional Insights - Institutions generally hold an optimistic view of the market's future, with strategies leaning towards balanced allocation due to potential short-term volatility [3][10]. - Analysts highlight that the current market rally is supported by policy backing, a shift of household savings into capital markets, and continuous foreign capital inflow [7]. - The recent appreciation of the yuan and increased attention from overseas investors are also contributing to market growth [7]. Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend a "barbell" strategy for 2026, focusing on high-growth sectors like AI and semiconductors while also considering defensive assets that benefit from global recovery [15]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in high-growth industries such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military technology, as well as cyclical sectors like chemicals and agriculture [15]. - Analysts suggest that the current market breadth is sufficient, with many quality leading companies still having reasonable valuations, advocating for long-term value investment rather than short-term speculation [15].

Group 1 - The new silver export policy implemented on New Year's Day signals a significant shift in China's control over the global silver trade, allowing only large enterprises with an annual production of over 80 tons to participate [1] - Silver is increasingly recognized as a strategic resource, essential not only for jewelry and investment but also for high-end weapons and advanced technology [1] Group 2 - The previous rare earth export restrictions have highlighted the dependency of U.S. high-tech and defense industries on Chinese materials, with significant implications for supply chains [3] - China controls 83% of tungsten, 98% of gallium, and 70% of rare earth elements globally, showcasing its dominance in these critical materials [5] - The price of tungsten has more than doubled over the past year, reflecting the growing demand for high-end manufacturing applications [5] Group 3 - The changing economic landscape has led to a shift in currency dynamics, with an increasing number of central banks expressing interest in holding RMB assets, surpassing $600 billion in foreign purchases of RMB bonds [7] - China's control over core resources is becoming increasingly recognized, contributing to a stronger economic position [7] Group 4 - The competition for resources is intensifying, with the U.S. seeking to secure mineral resources while China is strategically managing the export of materials like gallium and graphite for military purposes [9] - The global supply-demand gap for silver and copper is widening, leading to rising prices, supported by a robust domestic market [10] - The management of strategic materials is crucial for reclaiming China's voice in international negotiations and facilitating the internationalization of the RMB [10]

Core Insights - The data for Northbound capital holdings in the Chinese stock market for Q4 2025 shows a clear picture of foreign investment trends, indicating a sustained positive outlook from foreign investors towards Chinese equities [1][3]. Group 1: Northbound Capital Holdings - As of the end of Q4 2025, Northbound funds held a total of 3,257 stocks, with a combined holding of approximately 1,077.09 billion shares and a total market value of about 2.59 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 1,476.05 million shares from Q3 2025 [3]. - Compared to the end of 2024, Northbound capital's total market value increased by approximately 380 billion yuan, with a gradual upward trend in holdings throughout 2025 [3]. - In December 2025, foreign capital inflow into Chinese stocks accelerated to 3.5 billion USD, up from 2.3 billion USD in November, marking a significant turnaround from a net outflow of 26 billion USD in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Major Holdings and Sector Preferences - The top holding for Northbound funds as of Q4 2025 was Ningde Times, with a market value of 254.34 billion yuan, significantly higher than the second-largest holding, Midea Group, at 77.05 billion yuan [4]. - Other notable holdings included Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, and Zijin Mining, with a noticeable shift in the top ten holdings compared to the end of 2024, as some stocks like BYD and Mindray Medical dropped out of the list [4]. - In terms of sector distribution, the top three sectors for Northbound capital were power equipment, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, indicating a shift from the previous year's focus on power equipment, banking, and food and beverage [5]. Group 3: Net Buying and Selling Trends - Ningde Times led the net buying list with an inflow of 45.63 billion yuan, followed by Northbound Huachuang and BYD with 24.89 billion yuan and 13.03 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - Conversely, Kweichow Moutai, Changjiang Electric, and Agricultural Bank were the top three stocks for net selling, with outflows of 32.30 billion yuan, 16.21 billion yuan, and 12.27 billion yuan, respectively [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, institutions generally expect foreign capital holdings in Chinese stocks to further increase, with Goldman Sachs estimating potential buying funds could reach 10 billion USD, indicating a positive outlook for the Chinese stock market [7].

Market Overview - The A-share market has started 2026 with strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points and reaching a ten-year high of 4121.7 points on January 9 [1][4] - The margin trading balance has exceeded 2.62 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, with significant contributions from sectors like semiconductors, military, and non-ferrous metals [1][4] Market Drivers - The market's new highs are attributed to a combination of "liquidity easing expectations" and "strong policy narratives," which have driven up risk appetite [1] - The current market phase is seen as a transition from a "preference-driven structural bull market" to a "profit-validated comprehensive bull market" [1][8] - The positive sentiment is supported by a favorable liquidity environment and the implementation of supportive macroeconomic policies [4][8] Investment Trends - A report from Guosen Securities suggests that as the market's fundamentals improve, A-shares are expected to enter the latter half of a bull market in 2026, with an anticipated influx of 2 trillion yuan in new funds [2] - The number of new A-share accounts reached 27.44 million in 2025, a 9.75% increase from 2024, indicating growing investor interest [5] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the market will experience a "spring rally" characterized by structural rotation rather than uniform growth [7] - Key factors influencing future performance include the effectiveness of economic policies and the ability of listed companies to meet growth expectations in Q1 [8] - The market is expected to remain in a slow bull trend, with a shift from liquidity-driven growth to earnings-driven growth as companies begin to release their performance [8] Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on a balanced approach, combining value stocks benefiting from macro recovery with growth sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing [11] - Recommendations include maintaining a neutral position with 50-70% equity exposure, gradually building positions, and focusing on sectors aligned with policy support and industry trends [11][12] - High-growth sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries are highlighted as key investment opportunities, alongside traditional sectors like transportation and real estate that may benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics [12]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points, achieving a 16-day winning streak, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising over 1% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.12 trillion yuan, marking a 322.4 billion yuan increase from the previous trading day, and surpassing the 3 trillion yuan mark for the fifth time in history [1] Key Sectors Military Industry - The military sector saw substantial gains, with the military ETF Huabao (512810) surging over 5.5% during the day and achieving a weekly increase of 13.57%, marking seven consecutive weeks of gains [3][4] - Among the 80 constituent stocks of the military ETF, 73 stocks rose, with 8 stocks increasing over 10% and several reaching historical highs [3][6] - The growth in the military sector is attributed to various catalysts, including favorable policies in the commercial aerospace sector, with predictions indicating that China's commercial aerospace industry could reach a scale of 8 trillion yuan by 2030 [6][8] Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector continued to soar, with the non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) rising 3.24% to reach a new historical high, supported by a net inflow of 575.6 million yuan in a single day [9][11] - The sector has seen significant interest from institutional investors, with a total net inflow of 1.94 billion yuan over the past five days [9] Artificial Intelligence - The AI application sector experienced explosive growth, with the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) reaching a new high, and several stocks, including Yidian Tianxia, hitting the daily limit of 20% [15][17] - The AI market is expected to see rapid penetration into various industries, with significant advancements in AI infrastructure and data governance anticipated in 2026 [17] Investment Opportunities - The military ETF Huabao (512810) is positioned as an efficient tool for investing in core military assets, covering themes such as commercial aerospace, controlled nuclear fusion, and military AI [8] - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) provides exposure to a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, and rare earths, which are expected to benefit from ongoing demand and supply constraints [11] - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) focuses on AI applications and is expected to capture the growth in this sector effectively, with a significant portion of its portfolio allocated to leading companies in the AI space [18]

Government Policies - The State Council's executive meeting on January 9 announced a package of policies to promote domestic demand through financial and fiscal collaboration, including optimizing service industry loans and personal consumption loan interest subsidies [1] - The meeting also discussed the establishment of a special guarantee plan for private investment and a risk-sharing mechanism for bonds issued by private enterprises [1] Macroeconomic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, with food prices rising by 0.3% [2] - The PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic products, effective from April 1, 2025 [2] Investment News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance introduced a reward system for whistleblowers reporting serious violations in the securities and futures markets, with rewards up to 1 million yuan [3] - A-shares saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points, marking a new high in over 10 years, and a trading volume exceeding 3.1 trillion yuan [3] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.32%, with notable gains in sectors such as media and non-ferrous metals [3] Company Developments - Tianpu Co. experienced unusual stock price fluctuations, leading to an investigation by the CSRC for potential omissions in disclosures, with the stock set to resume trading on January 12 [4] - Luzhou Laojiao announced a mid-year profit distribution plan, proposing a dividend of 13.58 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 2 billion yuan [5] - Jiangyun Co. plans to restructure its assets related to passenger car sales and after-sales services, which is expected to constitute a major asset reorganization [6] - Tongfu Microelectronics intends to raise no more than 4.4 billion yuan through a private placement to enhance storage chip testing capacity [6] - Ju Shi Chemical received a notice of administrative penalty for inflating revenue and profits through false trading, with total fines expected to reach 6.7 million yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4100-point mark for the first time since July 2015, closing at 4120.43 points on January 9, 2026, with a trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan [3][1]. Market Performance - On January 9, all three major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.92%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.15%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.77% [1][3]. - Over 3900 stocks in the market rose, with 110 companies hitting the daily limit up, marking the second consecutive day with over 100 stocks reaching the limit [4]. - The total market turnover reached 3.15 trillion yuan, marking the fifth historical instance of surpassing 3 trillion yuan, with the last occurrence on September 18, 2025 [5]. Sector Performance - The A-share market saw a rise in both volume and price, with significant gains in sectors such as media, defense, technology, and non-ferrous metals, driven by expectations of AI applications and policies supporting commercial aerospace [7]. - The AI application concept saw a collective surge, with over twenty stocks hitting the daily limit up, while the commercial aerospace sector continued to perform strongly [7]. Investment Sentiment - Analysts noted a shift in market sentiment from hesitation to active allocation, with a consensus forming around the potential for a spring rally [8]. - Factors supporting the market's rise include policy support, a shift of household savings into the capital market, and continued foreign capital inflow [9]. Future Market Outlook - Most institutions maintain a positive outlook for the market, with expectations that the current upward trend will continue [15][16]. - Analysts predict that the spring rally may last until March, with the overall index expected to continue rising [17]. Investment Strategies - Institutions suggest a balanced allocation strategy in response to potential market volatility, emphasizing the importance of both technology and cyclical sectors for 2026 [20][21]. - Recommendations include focusing on growth technology sectors such as AI applications and semiconductors, as well as industries with improving economic conditions like military, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals [22]. - Investors are advised to prioritize long-term value investments in quality leading companies rather than short-term speculation [23].