天富期货有限公司 期货投资咨询业务许可 证监许可[2011]1450 号 本报告完成时间为 2025 年 4 月 23 日 18:00 来源：公开信息、同花顺 iFinD、东方财富 Choice 及钢联数据 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 观点和信息仅供参考之用 不构成任何人的投资建议 务必阅读文章末尾免责声明 作者：刘幸华 从业资格号：F03088692 交易咨询资格证号: Z0016646 油脂上涨、生猪下挫 一、农产品板块综述 油脂板块全线上涨,豆油仍受到国内进口大豆通关缓慢的影响, 油厂缺豆停机,开机率偏低致使产出减少,豆油库存下降,加之下游 备货等需求提振豆油期价上涨,带动其他油脂走高。生猪下挫,养殖 端主流规模企业落袋为安,出栏量增加,而二育补栏成本大幅增加, 补栏数量显著减少,生猪供应增加给猪价带来下跌压力。玉米偏强波 动,产区农户余粮见底,贸易商惜售,下游深加工及饲料需求稳中有 增,支撑玉米期价。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆油:继续领涨 焦点关注:豆油主力 2509 合约继续上涨,供应偏低支撑期价走 间: 1.国内进口大豆通关缓慢,油厂开机阶段性偏低,豆油库存大幅 去化,库存为近年同期最低水平,豆油 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: April 23, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The CBOT soybeans are not likely to decline significantly due to potential trade negotiations where some countries may increase purchases of US soybeans, and the expected reduction in the new - season US soybean planting area to 83.5 million acres year - on - year [6]. - The domestic soybean meal market is in a state of tight current supply but wide future supply expectations. In the short term, supply is tight with low import volume in March and slow customs clearance in April, and low inventory levels. However, in the long run, supply will be sufficient as Brazilian soybeans arrive in large quantities and state - reserve auctions continue [6]. - For futures, it is recommended to be long - biased in the 09 and subsequent far - month contracts, but one may need to endure the greatest supply pressure in the second quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: - For the Soybean Meal 2505 contract, the previous settlement price was 2910, the closing price was 2988, up 78 or 2.68% with a trading volume of 393,367 and an open interest of 337,200, a decrease of 53,643 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2507 contract, the previous settlement price was 2886, the closing price was 2910, up 24 or 0.83% with a trading volume of 202,486 and an open interest of 503,784, an increase of 11,665 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the closing price was 3054, up 11 or 0.36% with a trading volume of 1,583,221 and an open interest of 2,416,736, an increase of 17,181 [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybeans 05 contract on the external market was oscillating, with the main force at 1050 cents. After a rebound after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, it entered a narrow - range oscillation last week due to ongoing trade negotiations [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean meal is in a state of tight current supply but wide future supply expectations. In March, the imported soybean volume was only 3.5 million tons, and customs clearance in April was slow. The soybean meal inventory reached a multi - year low, reflected in the price. However, supply will be sufficient in the future as Brazilian soybeans arrive and state - reserve auctions continue [6]. - **Futures Suggestion**: It is recommended to be long - biased in the 09 and subsequent far - month contracts, but one may need to endure the greatest supply pressure in the second quarter [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **USDA Reports**: As of the week ending April 20, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than the market expectation of 7%, 2% in the previous week, 7% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 5%. As of the week ending April 17, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 550,924 tons, within the market forecast range of 400,000 - 750,000 tons [8][9]. - **Argentina's Situation**: Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to be 17.9 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's estimate but a 7.8% increase from the previous year. The 2024/25 soybean production is estimated to be 49 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the 2023/24 season [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][15]

2025年04月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地主动让利，短期仍有压力 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：中美情绪反复，缺乏有效驱动 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆小幅收涨，连粕调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：缺乏基本面驱动关注外部因素影响 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱，梅雨季将至 | 10 | | 生猪：震荡调整 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 23 日 棕榈油：产地主动让利，短期仍有压力 豆油：中美情绪反复，缺乏有效驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日盘） 8,130 | 涨跌幅 0.77% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,102 | 涨跌幅 -0.34% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 ...

期货研究报告 下游需求低迷，棉花短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-23 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 150 ...

联系方式： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 4 月 22 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/4/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK504 | 8090 | 40 | 0.49% | 4 | -42.86% | 7 | 16.67% | | PK510 | 8060 | 0 | 0.00% | 22,360 | -56.71% | 74,949 | 2.64% | | PK601 | 8040 | -6 | -0.07% | 718 | 163.00% | 2,307 | -0.77% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山 ...

4月22日盘中，菜籽粕期货主力合约偏强运行，最高上探至2669.00元。截止发稿，菜籽粕主力合约报 2653.00元，涨幅1.18%。 菜籽粕期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 混沌天成期货 菜籽粕整体跟随豆粕短期走强为主 大越期货 菜粕价格维持震荡偏强格局 铜冠金源期货 双粕短期或震荡运行 混沌天成期货：菜籽粕整体跟随豆粕短期走强为主 宏观层面：美国暂停对中国以外的其他国家征收高额关税90天，外部植物油市场走强，加拿大的油菜籽 需求依然强劲。供需分析：近端下游需求表现仍偏弱，菜粕颗粒粕及杂粕供应相对宽松。后期水产饲料 需求季节性增加，关注需求端表现及去库存情况。观点：我们认为菜粕目前基本面变化不大，整体跟随 豆粕短期走强为主。后续还是重点关注加菜籽菜粕对华进口情况，以及宏观政策上的变动。 大越期货：菜粕价格维持震荡偏强格局 菜粕短期受进口油菜籽库存处于低位和中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税影响震荡上行，加上豆粕带动 菜粕价格维持震荡偏强格局。菜粕RM2509：2600至2660区间操作。 铜冠金源期货：双粕短期或震荡运行 美豆播种进度为8%，快于市场预期7%，但预报中西部 ...

总部地址：安徽省合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 玉米期货周报（20250421-0425） 投资咨询业务资格 安粮期货研究所 2025 年 4 月 21 日 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员: 李雨馨 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 助理研究员： 潘兆敏：从业资格证号：F03064781 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号：F3029146 投资咨询号：Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 1 / 6 安粮期货研究报告 综述：玉米期价震荡运行 等待新题材指引 品种： 玉米 本周看法： 短期玉米期价区间震荡，维持区间操作思路。 上周看法： 短期玉米期价区间震荡运行，短线参与为主。 周度建议： 短期市场暂无趋势性因素推动价格走出长线趋势，因此玉米期价区间内反复震荡，投 资者短线参与为主。 逻辑判断： 下游淀粉加工利润：近期玉米价格重心上移，挤压了下游加工利润，因此下游加工利润 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受原油拖累，棉花短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-22 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 150 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending April 15, large speculators switched to holding a net long position of 7,942 contracts in CBOT soybean futures and options [1] - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from April 1 - 20 were 704,568 tons, a 11.9% increase from the same period in March [1] - China's palm oil imports in March were 170,000 tons, a 3.5% year - on - year increase; imports from January - March were 380,000 tons, a 30.6% year - on - year decrease [1] - China's soybean oil imports from January - March were 20,000 tons, a 67.4% year - on - year decrease [1] - China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports from January - March were 730,000 tons, a 40.7% year - on - year increase [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Large speculators reduced net short positions in CBOT corn futures and options last week and switched to net long in CBOT soybean futures and options [1] - ITS data showed Malaysia's palm oil export growth from April 1 - 20 [1] - Chinese customs data revealed palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil import volume changes in March and January - March [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from April 14 - 18, 2025 were presented in a table [2] Other Information - Information on main producing country precipitation, imported soybean crushing profit, and grease import profit was mentioned [1] - Information on grease basis, grease and oilseed price spreads, and protein meal basis was mentioned [6][9][12]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 4 月 21 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：随着此前部分地区油厂断豆停机局面的逐渐缓解，国内油厂开工率周比大幅回升，五一过后油 厂整体开工率回升速度可能进一步加快，港口大豆库存转为累库的可能性增加，豆粕基差近期由负转正后， 出现明显反复。目前市场在关税政策变化和供应预期之间博弈。随着市场情绪出现回落，交易逻辑逐渐向 产业逻辑进行切换，短期豆粕期价回吐风险溢价，整体偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） < END > 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中 ...