1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may experience a short - term pull - back due to concerns about liquidity tightening caused by Japan's potential interest rate hike, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Alumina prices are expected to be under continuous pressure. Aluminum prices are likely to be strong in the medium - term. Zinc prices may be affected by macro factors, and lead prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Nickel prices have limited upside potential due to weak demand. Stainless steel prices are recommended for short - side allocation. Tin prices will maintain high - level volatility. Industrial silicon prices have limited downside space in the short - term. Polysilicon prices are recommended to hold short positions. Lithium carbonate prices may face callback pressure in the medium - term [3][10][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract 2601 of copper futures closed at 88,920 yuan/ton, up 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 1,209 lots to 587,000 lots. The spot copper price declined, and the supply in the market was tight. The Shanghai spot premium rose, while the North China consumption was weak, and the spot premium and discount weakened [1] - **Important Information**: The Bank of Japan governor strongly hinted at a December interest rate hike. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI index was 48.2, lower than expected. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. The CSPT group plans to reduce the copper concentrate production capacity load by more than 10% in 2026 [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about global liquidity tightening were triggered by the Bank of Japan's hawkish remarks. The US ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. The copper supply in 2026 remains tight, and the CSPT group plans to cut production. The Comex copper inventory is increasing, and the LME's B - structure is expanding. The copper price may pull back in the short - term but will rise in the long - term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider partially taking profits on long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton and rebuying after the correction. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [4][5][6] Alumina - **Related Information**: An electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan purchased 0.2 million tons of spot alumina on December 1. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are under maintenance. Four alumina new - construction projects in Guangxi are in different progress stages [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: After the alumina price decline, there was maintenance in the northern market, but it did not affect the monthly output. Near the end - of - year long - term contract negotiation period, the alumina price is expected to be under pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the alumina price will oscillate weakly. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [11][12][13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Related Information**: The Bank of Japan governor's statement intensified market speculation about a December policy shift. The total inventory of Chinese aluminum ingot spot was 591,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. A 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia was put into production [15] - **Trading Logic**: The Fed's dovish remarks and US economic data increased the market's attention to non - interest - bearing assets. Aluminum has a supply gap globally, and its fundamentals are supported. In the short - term, new projects are put into production as scheduled, and domestic aluminum consumption is resilient [16] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the aluminum price will be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips in the medium - term. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Related Information**: The Bank of Japan governor signaled a possible interest rate hike. In October 2025, China's imports and exports of unforged aluminum alloy and waste aluminum had certain volumes, and the warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy increased [18][21][22] - **Trading Logic**: The market's concern about the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut in December was alleviated, but there are concerns about Japan's interest rate hike. The waste aluminum resources are in short supply, and the demand is differentiated [23] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it will oscillate strongly along with the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2601 rose 1% to 22,745 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 4,053 lots. In the spot market, the downstream was hesitant to buy due to high prices, but the trading among traders was active [26] - **Related Information**: As of December 1, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots decreased. A zinc - lead project in Algeria is expected to start production as planned [27] - **Logic Analysis**: In December, domestic northern mines will enter seasonal shutdown, and the refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The zinc concentrate import is in a loss state. The zinc price may be affected by macro factors [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, continue to hold the remaining profitable long positions and be vigilant against macro factors. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [32] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2601 rose 0.73% to 17,210 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index increased by 2,060 lots. In the spot market, the lead price increased slightly, and the downstream maintained rigid demand [34] - **Related Information**: The new national standard for electric bicycles was implemented on December 1. The procurement sentiment of downstream lead - acid battery factories was average, and the social inventory of lead ingots decreased [35] - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of recycled lead smelting increased, and the smelters were reluctant to sell. The production of primary lead was affected by maintenance, and the inventory decreased. The lead price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term [36] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the Shanghai lead price may fluctuate strongly in the range. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract NI2601 of Shanghai nickel rose 570 to 118,050 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 1,877 lots. The spot premiums of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed [39] - **Important Information**: Indonesian companies support the cooperation between Tsingshan and UNIDO. GreenMei's nickel project in Indonesia is operating normally. In November 2025, the domestic ternary material production decreased slightly, and the production is expected to decline further in December [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the supply is still tilted towards nickel sulfate. The supply - demand is loose, and the price has limited upside potential [42] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy was mentioned in the text Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS201 of stainless steel rose 70 to 12,465 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 5,518 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [44] - **Important Information**: POSCO maintained the stainless steel price in December. A stainless steel project in Jieyang was in the environmental impact assessment stage. Indonesia's nickel product exports to China accounted for a large proportion [45] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand in December is not optimistic, and the domestic crude steel production plan decreased significantly. The short - term price rebound lacks a solid foundation, and the price is still restricted by inventory [46] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a short - side allocation. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [46] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2601 closed at 306,980 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton or 0.24%. The spot price of tin decreased, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [52] - **Related Information**: The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. In October 2025, China's tin ore imports increased month - on - month [52][53] - **Logic Analysis**: False news once pushed up the tin price. The domestic tin concentrate imports increased in October, but the processing fee remained low. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was in the off - season [54] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it will maintain high - level volatility after a short - term pull - back. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [55][56] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The environmental protection improvement project of Luxi Chemical's silicone device passed the acceptance monitoring [57] - **Logic Analysis**: In December, the production in Yunnan and Sichuan may decrease, while large enterprises in the northwest will increase production. The demand from the silicone and polysilicon industries has certain changes, and the price has limited downside space in the short - term [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on rallies in the short - term. If the inventory accumulates significantly, the price may decline further [58] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: On December 1, the clearing results of Liaoning Power Grid's mechanism electricity price bidding were announced [60] - **Logic Analysis**: The silicon wafer and battery market are under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading. For arbitrage, conduct a long - short spread operation between Si2601 and Si2602. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [62] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate decreased by 700 to 96,560 yuan/ton, and the position and warehouse receipts increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [66] - **Important Information**: The lithium battery recycling industry has improved. Tianhua New Energy plans to increase lithium salt production capacity. In November 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased, and it is expected to continue to reduce inventory in December [67] - **Logic Analysis**: There are differences in the demand side's production plan in December. The supply is expected to increase, and the price may face callback pressure in the medium - term [68] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy after a sufficient long - term pull - back. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2605 contract [69][70]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For nickel trading, the recommended strategy is mainly range - based operations [1][3]. - Given low demand and high inventory, stainless steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy for stainless steel trading is neutral [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main nickel contract 2601 opened at 117,080 yuan/ton and closed at 117,850 yuan/ton, a 0.59% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 145,829 (+59,900) lots, and the open interest was 122,891 (-4,444) lots. It showed an oscillating upward trend, staying in the 116,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton range. The 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish medium - term trend. The significant increase in trading volume showed increased divergence between bulls and bears without a clear breakthrough. The enhanced market expectation of the Fed's policy shift and the weakening US dollar index provided support for nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was dominated by a wait - and - see sentiment, with prices remaining stable. An Indonesian mine won the bid for 1.4% nickel ore in the Philippines at 50.5 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, with good shipping efficiency. Weak nickel - iron prices and受挫 iron - mill profits led to cautious nickel - ore procurement, and some iron mills considered production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (first phase) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium was mainly at +26, with a range of +25 - 26. Overall, domestic trade nickel - ore prices decreased, and the premium also had downward potential [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,400 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading of refined nickel was okay, and the spot premiums of various refined - nickel brands were stable with a slight decline. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 4,800 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel - bean premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,722 (-587) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 254,760 (-690) tons [2]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is mainly range - based operations for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2601 opened at 12,375 yuan/ton and closed at 12,445 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,599 (+40,379) lots, and the open interest was 108,469 (-4,171) lots. It rebounded slightly driven by nickel prices but failed to break through the recent oscillation range. The significant increase in trading volume showed intensified multi - empty game without a clear trend breakthrough, and the decrease in open interest indicated that some funds took profits, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [3]. - **Spot**: Low prices attracted some downstream rigid - demand purchases, which were mainly for replenishment. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 350 - 550 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The recommended strategy for single - side trading is neutral, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in nickel futures, which have shown a slight increase amid macroeconomic factors and demand challenges [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. government has resumed operations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in December - High-level communications between China and the U.S. have raised market hopes for new domestic stimulus policies to support the economy [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Nanhua Futures, the Philippines is shipping nickel ore according to orders without significant fluctuations - There are indications that Indonesia may reduce its quota for the upcoming year, but no concrete figures have been reported yet, suggesting limited immediate impact [1] - Southwest Futures notes that downstream nickel-iron plants are facing increased losses, leading to some high-cost nickel-iron plants in Indonesia halting production for maintenance - The stainless steel sector is entering a traditional off-peak consumption season, compounded by weak demand in the real estate sector, resulting in a bearish sentiment among steel mills [1] Market Outlook - Jinrui Futures anticipates that nickel ore prices in Indonesia are likely to remain stable in December - There are signs of price stabilization for nickel-iron and stainless steel in the short term, with a potential confirmation of a bottom in the off-peak season - Expectations of stability in the mining sector may alleviate short-term pressure on primary nickel prices, with the price center expected to stabilize around 117,000 yuan per ton - Short-term focus will be on the resumption of Indonesian projects, with the core trading range for nickel futures set between 115,000 and 120,000 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel ore benchmark prices have slightly declined, but the premium operation has been relatively stable. In the nickel - stainless steel industry chain, the transaction center of nickel - iron prices has moved down, the raw material support has weakened, the weekly inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the market has shown a sluggish performance. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material side is tight, but the output of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more obvious, with the output of primary nickel increasing month - on - month in December. Referring to the cost support of SMM's integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel at 110,000 yuan/ton, one can consider making low - position layouts and waiting for the realization of positive factors, but should be vigilant against macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly decline: Shanghai nickel and LME nickel both fell 3.7%, and most product prices in the industry chain declined. For example, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) dropped from 925 yuan/nickel point last month to 883 yuan/nickel point this month, a decrease of 42 yuan/nickel point [8][9]. 3.2 Inventory - Weekly changes: LME inventory decreased by 3,744 tons to 254,760 tons; Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 239 tons to 33,309 tons; social inventory increased by 3,090 tons to 55,349 tons; and bonded area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 2,200 tons [8][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Nickel ore**: The domestic trade price of 1.2% nickel ore in Indonesia remained at $23/wet ton, and that of 1.6% remained at $52.5/wet ton. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained at $25.5/wet ton, and the price of Philippine nickel ore remained at $8.0/wet ton [5][22]. - **Refined nickel**: The output of refined nickel in December is expected to increase by 6.2% month - on - month to 27,400 tons [5][24]. - **Nickel iron**: The purchase price of large nickel - iron plants is 880 yuan/nickel point. Traders' inquiries are relatively active, but factory quotations are scarce. There may be production cuts in December [5][26]. - **Intermediate products**: The weekly average spot prices of MHP and high - grade nickel matte have slightly declined. Recently, some intermediate product projects in an Indonesian park have been affected by tailings dam stacking issues, which are expected to last until the first quarter of next year. SMM expects that the MHP output in December will decrease by about 6,000 nickel tons [5][29]. - **Nickel sulfate**: The economic efficiency of producing nickel sulfate from MHP, nickel beans, and high - grade nickel matte has declined [5][34]. 3.4 Demand - **New energy**: In December 2025, the estimated output of ternary precursors in China is 83,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 23.09%. Domestic and export demands have declined, and the output is expected to drop. The weekly output of ternary materials increased by 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and the inventory increased by 71 tons to 19,361 tons. In November, the estimated retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars is about 2.25 million, flat month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. Among them, the retail volume of new energy vehicles can reach about 1.35 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 60% [6][46]. - **Stainless steel**: Most spot prices of stainless steel have declined this month, and the spot premium has dropped by 85 yuan/ton to 425 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream markets across the country, measured by 89 warehouses, is 1.086 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series has increased by 10,000 tons to 669,000 tons. The estimated crude steel production in November is 3.4551 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.12%. In October, the import of stainless steel increased by 3% month - on - month to 120,000 tons, the export decreased by 14% month - on - month to 358,000 tons, and the net export was 233,000 tons. The positions of raw materials and finished products have fluctuated, and the profit has changed little [6][8]. 3.5 Nickel Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate is presented through relevant charts, but specific numerical analysis is not elaborated in the text [91]. 3.6 Options - Information on historical volatility, historical volatility cones, and the put - call ratios of option trading volume and open interest related to Shanghai nickel is provided [96][101].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 库存跟踪： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：现实基本面仍有压力，宏观与消息影响边际。精炼镍累库矛盾和湿法投产预期压制估值， 火法利润遭重导致 11 月精炼镍排产环比减少 6%至 31580 吨，部分企业将精炼镍转向非标镍生产，但由于 市场普遍预期隐性补库放缓，耐腐合金需求承压，叠加镍合金端使用镍铁取代镍板的比例有所提高，累库 矛盾尚未完全化解。同时，远端低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间品环节湿法出清火法的长线 逻辑或仍有拖累。从宏观与消息面看，美联储偏鸽派言论提振，降息预期回升，宏观压力阶段性缓和，同 时，印尼的资源治理动作频繁，低位追空仍需关注风险。印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预 算，且印尼能矿部也表示对明年或可能削减配额，仍需紧密关注印尼审批进展的下一步动作。因此，整体 而言，现实面和预期都存在压力，但是短线在还未实质出清的阶段，宏观情绪回升，叠加消息面仍存 ...

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 116,920 yuan/ton and closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, a change of -0.53% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,221 (-79,345) lots, and the open interest was 127,765 (-503) lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a slight oscillating downward trend, failing to continue the rebound of the previous few days. The price closed below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, with a bearish technical outlook. After the macro - positive sentiment faded, the nickel price returned to the fundamental market [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and the nickel ore price remained stable. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders for shipment, and the shipping efficiency was okay. The downstream ferronickel price was weak, and the iron - making plants' profits were affected. They were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, and some plants had the intention to cut production to stop losses. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (phase one) was expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade premium was in the range of +25 - 26, and there was room for it to decline due to the falling ferronickel price [1]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The overall spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were adjusted downwards. Jinchuan nickel's premium remained at 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,548 (-396) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,450 (+930) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Strategy - With high inventories and an oversupply situation remaining unchanged, the nickel price was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was to focus on range trading, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of stainless steel opened at 12,435 yuan/ton and closed at 12,410 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,697 (-24,902) lots, and the open interest was 122,062 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract showed a slight oscillating downward trend, and its price movement basically followed that of Shanghai nickel. The stainless - steel fundamentals were still weak. The social inventory increased this week, rising 0.64% compared to last week to 946,000 tons. After the macro - positive factors were exhausted, the price was expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [3]. - Earlier this week, the trading volume improved due to the price rebound, but it weakened again yesterday when the price dropped. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 325 - 525 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 883.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuous downward shift in the cost center, stainless steel was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was neutral, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. However, as the current price is at a 5 - year low, the downside space is limited [1][2] - For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand, high inventory, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in low - level oscillations. After the macro - level positive factors fade, there is a risk of price weakening. Similar to nickel, the current price is at a 5 - year low, so the downside space is limited [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 116,500 yuan/ton and closed at 117,260 yuan/ton, a 0.97% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 176,566 (+60,128) lots, and the open interest was 128,268 (-12,947) lots. The price continued to rebound due to multiple macro - level positive factors, including the Fed's dovish signal, progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the domestic central bank's continuous net injection [1] - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mostly in a wait - and - see state, with prices remaining stable. Philippine mines are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream nickel - iron prices are weak, squeezing iron - mill profits, so they are cautious about purchasing nickel ore. Some iron mills are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium is mainly at +26, with a range of +25 - 26. Overall, domestic trade prices of nickel ore will decline [1] - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,100 yuan/ton, a 1,300 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Due to the continuous rise in futures prices, the overall trading of refined nickel is average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands are stable or declining. Jinchuan nickel's premium changes by 200 yuan/ton to 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changes by - 100 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,944 (294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,520 (1038) tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 26, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,410 yuan/ton and closed at 12,455 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,599 (+1,313) lots, and the open interest was 131,410 (-4,171) lots. The price rebounded by 0.65% and closed above the 5 - day moving average but below the 20 - day moving average, with a weak medium - term trend. The recent rebound is driven by nickel prices and improved macro - level liquidity expectations, but the fundamental situation of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and high inventory and cost collapse are still the main factors suppressing prices [2][3] - **Spot**: Affected by the continuous rebound of futures prices, spot trading has significantly improved today, and the quotes have slightly increased. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,650 (+25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 884.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: On November 26, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated upwards. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but due to the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the low valuation, after getting support around 115,000, the nickel price is expected to have a weak recovery [1]. - Stainless steel: On November 26, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated upwards. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium narrowed. The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weakening, but with the production - cut disturbance in the 400 - series, the stainless steel is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Nickel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on different trading dates (2025 - 11 - 19, 2025 - 11 - 25, 2025 - 11 - 26) showed certain fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract on November 26 was 117,030 yuan/ton, up 1,090 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active nickel futures contract on November 26 was 176,566 hands (+60,128), and the open interest was 128,268 hands (- 12,947) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the LME nickel inventory also increased, while the social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [1]. 3.1.2 Stainless - Steel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on different trading dates also fluctuated. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract on November 26 was 12,270 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active stainless - steel futures contract on November 26 was 151,599 hands (+1,313), and the open interest was 131,410 hands (- 15,827) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of the 300 - series last week was 620,400 tons (- 2,800) [1]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased last week, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, with domestic production in November decreasing and Indonesian production increasing. Domestic electrolytic nickel production in November decreased, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [1]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production in November decreased, and the production of the 300 - series was basically flat [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - **Nickel**: Not much information on cost analysis for nickel in the report. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat, indicating that the cost support for stainless steel was weakening [1]. 3.4 Industry News - Indonesian nickel industry emphasizes sustainable development based on green and low - carbon technologies. Indonesian Vale's director pointed out that the sustainable development of the nickel industry must be based on green and low - carbon technologies. The company has implemented multiple de - phosphorus measures, including using hydropower, recycling waste heat, and using carbon monoxide and hydrogen. Indonesian Mining Holding Company (Mind Id) said Indonesia can build a world - class supply chain meeting net - zero emission goals [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to short after a rebound [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].