FICC日报 | 2025-07-03 科技股调整，红利回升 市场分析 美国就业数据爆冷。国内方面，证监会党委召开扩大会议强调，要持续优化股债融资、并购重组等资本市场机制 安排，促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。牢记我国资本市场中小投资者众多的最大市情，不断完善投资者保 护制度体系。深入推进以"两创板"改革为抓手的新一轮全面深化资本市场改革。全力抓好资本市场自主开放重点 举措落地。始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首要任务，推动健全常态化稳市机制安排，平稳有序防控债券违约、 私募基金等领域风险。海外方面，美国6月ADP就业人数意外减少3.3万人，自2023年3月以来首次负增长，预期为 增长9.8万人，5月份数据在向下修正后仅增加2.9万人。服务业就业在6月份减少6.6万个就业岗位，遭遇自疫情以来 的最大降幅。 指数调整。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收跌，科技股全线回调，上证指数跌0.09%收于3454.79点，创业板指跌1.13%。 行业方面，板块指数涨跌互现，钢铁、煤炭、建筑材料行业涨幅居前，电子、通信、国防军工、计算机行业跌幅 居前。当日沪深两市成交金额回落至1.4万亿元。今年6月A股新开户165万户，环比增长 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining by 0.09% to close at 3454.79 points [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.61%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.13% [2] - Overall, more than 3200 stocks in the market declined, indicating a bearish sentiment [4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Steel (3.37%), Coal (1.99%), and Building Materials (1.42%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Electronics (-2.01%), Communication (-1.96%), and Defense & Military Industry (-1.94%) [3] - Concept stocks such as Low-E Glass (4.24%) and Silicon Energy (4.19%) showed strong performance, while Brain-Computer Interface (-2.60%) and EDR Concept (-2.47%) lagged [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile, with attention on domestic policies, US-China tariffs, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6] - The upcoming mid-year reports in July are anticipated to significantly impact individual stock performances [6] - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors such as Finance, Machinery, Consumer Goods, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) for potential investment opportunities [6] Key Events - A notable surge in marine economy concept stocks was observed following the Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1, which emphasized the high-quality development of the marine economy [5]

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market saw a comprehensive rise in interest rate bonds, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The stock market, represented by the Shanghai Composite Index, broke through resistance levels, indicating a potential upward trend. However, the weak fundamentals may continue to support the bond market, leading to high-level fluctuations in the bond market moving forward [19][22]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a day of volatility, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1%. The total trading volume was 1.4 trillion, a decrease of 0.09 trillion from the previous day. A total of 1,856 stocks rose while 3,103 stocks fell. The Shanghai Composite Index technically broke through the March high, opening up further upward potential. Three key observation points are highlighted to assess market strength: the June 23 low as a support level, the sustainability of trading volume, and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2][22][23]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The Dow Jones Index rose by 0.91%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.82% and 0.11%, respectively. Speculative sentiment is returning, and the U.S. stock market is expected to challenge new highs. The reduction in geopolitical risks has significantly lowered the risks associated with rising oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Upcoming tax cuts and regulatory relaxations are anticipated to support U.S. stock earnings and upward expectations [3][27][28]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1672, an increase of 47 basis points from the previous close. The long-term trend indicates a bearish outlook for the USD, with strong support for the offshore RMB around 7.1 [31][32]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 1.16%, with construction materials, coal, and ferroalloy sectors leading the gains, while corn saw declines. The volatility of oil and related products has significantly decreased from high levels. The overall trend in the commodity market remains bearish, but recent rebounds from historical lows in domestic pricing suggest a potential for bullish strategies, especially for investors with appropriate stop-loss measures [4][36][37].

沪指7月2日下跌0.09%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有15个，涨幅居前的行业为钢铁、煤炭，涨幅分 别为3.37%、1.99%。建筑材料行业位居今日涨幅榜第三。跌幅居前的行业为电子、通信，跌幅分别为 2.01%、1.96%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出358.90亿元，今日有9个行业主力资金净流入，电力设备行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨0.44%，全天净流入资金32.90亿元，其次是钢铁行业，日涨幅 为3.37%，净流入资金为9.55亿元。 | 000672 | 上峰水泥 | 1.74 | 1.21 | 454.09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002043 | 兔宝宝 | 0.92 | 1.06 | 379.03 | | 000012 | 南玻A | 3.23 | 2.09 | 348.59 | | 002392 | 北京利尔 | 1.28 | 1.74 | 345.21 | | 000877 | 天山股份 | 2.81 | 0.39 | 297.58 | | 300737 | 科顺股份 | 2.94 | 2.83 | 252.54 | | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% closing at 3454.78 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.61% at 10412.63 points, the Sci-Tech 50 down 1.22% at 982.64 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.13% at 2123.72 points [1] - Overall, there were 3282 stocks that fell, while 1943 stocks rose, and 192 stocks remained flat. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 13770 billion yuan, a decrease of 890.48 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as steel, coal, building materials, agriculture, banking, and non-ferrous metals led the gains, while electronics, communications, defense, computing, beauty care, and biomedicine sectors experienced declines [1] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included aquaculture, photovoltaic rooftops, deep-sea technology, BC batteries, silicon energy, solar thermal power, HJT batteries, selected cement manufacturing, photovoltaic, central enterprise coal, selected coal mining, perovskite batteries, lithium mining, new energy, and poultry industry [1]

Overall Inventory Cycle - In April, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 3.37% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 3.43%[1] - The total sales in April rose by 3.74% year-on-year, down from 4.04% previously[1] - The data indicates a preliminary shift towards active destocking in the U.S. inventory cycle[1] Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industries in April, 10 were in passive restocking, including construction materials, metals, and consumer goods[12] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in April was 39.2%, with chemical products at 85.7% and construction materials at 83.2%[12] - Oil and chemical sectors are likely transitioning to active destocking, while construction and metal inventories remain high[12] Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties regarding tariffs, the U.S. inventory cycle is expected to lean towards active destocking in Q2 due to previous overstocking[1] - The "panic import" demand has extended the passive restocking cycle for downstream industries[14] - Active destocking is anticipated for automotive and automotive parts as of December 2024, with a continued trend into April 2025[14]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% to close at 3457.75 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.11% to 10476.29 points. However, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index fell by 0.86% to 994.80 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.24% to 2147.92 points. Overall, 2628 stocks rose, 2542 fell, and 247 remained unchanged across the market [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 14660 billion, a decrease of 208.42 billion compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as comprehensive, pharmaceutical biology, banking, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, and building materials led the gains, while computer, retail, telecommunications, media, power equipment, and real estate sectors experienced declines [1]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included China Shipbuilding System, innovative drugs, antibiotics, vitamins, generic drugs, low-priced stocks in the ChiNext, hydropower, biotechnology, advanced packaging, superhard materials, pet economy, CRO, medical material exports, selected banks, and brain-computer interfaces [1].

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 金工定期报告 20250701 从微观出发的五维行业轮动月度跟踪 202507 2025 年 07 月 01 日 《从微观出发的五维行业轮动 月度跟踪 202506》 2025-06-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 模型多空对冲绩效：以 2015/01/01-2025/06/30 为回测区间，五维行业轮 动模型在申万一级行业中，六分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 21.59%，年 化波动率为 10.77%，信息比率为 2.00，月度胜率为 73.33%，历史最大 回撤为 13.30%；多头对冲全市场行业等权组合的年化收益率为 10.52%， 年化波动率为 6.59%，信息比率为 1.60，月度胜率 70.83%，历史最大回 撤为 9.36%。 ◼ ...

Core Viewpoint - Weifang City is actively promoting the integration of the real economy and digital economy through a comprehensive digital transformation initiative, which has been recognized as a national model for manufacturing digital transformation [1][2]. Group 1: Digital Transformation Initiatives - Weifang has implemented a three-year action plan and ten policies for industrial digital transformation, establishing a service alliance and a four-level specialist system to support enterprises [1]. - The city has achieved a significant increase in the coverage rate of digital transformation among industrial enterprises, ranking among the top in the province [1]. Group 2: Benchmarking and Demonstration - The "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" initiative has led to the establishment of lighthouse factories and the creation of national digital leading enterprises, with 14 national 5G factories and 444 provincial "Morning Star" factories [2]. - A total of 20 demonstration projects and 10 empowering enterprises have been recognized, with 35 projects initiated under the provincial and municipal "listing and challenging" program [2]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Support - Weifang has focused on enhancing digital infrastructure, achieving over 20,000 5G base stations and establishing 28 provincial industrial internet platforms [2]. - The city has created a digital industry park and an online service supermarket for digital transformation, forming a comprehensive support matrix [2]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Benchmarking - The city has identified 83 benchmark demonstration enterprises across various key industries, promoting effective digital transformation models that can be replicated [3]. - A case collection has been published, covering 14 industries and highlighting successful practices in digital transformation, providing a reference for small and medium-sized enterprises [3]. Group 5: Continuous Improvement and Outreach - Weifang's industrial department plans to deepen the dissemination of digital transformation examples through various formats, encouraging benchmark enterprises to share their experiences [4]. - The goal is to transition from beneficiaries of digital transformation to leaders and service providers, fostering a chain transformation within the industry [4].

ESG Policies - The Ministry of Finance released a draft application guide for the "Corporate Sustainable Disclosure Standards," detailing nine key areas for corporate sustainability information disclosure [1] - The guide aims to enhance the quality of sustainability disclosures and promote high-quality corporate development [1] Climate Change Reports - The China Meteorological Administration published the "China Climate Change Blue Book (2025)," highlighting ongoing global warming trends and significant climate changes in China [2] - The report indicates that China is experiencing a higher warming rate than the global average, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent and severe [2] - Monitoring indicators for 2024 are expected to reach new highs, emphasizing the urgency of climate change response measures [2] Global Energy Standards - The Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization announced the release of the first seven global energy interconnection standards, developed by nearly 160 experts from nine countries [3] - These standards cover various areas, including new power system planning and clean energy resource assessment, filling international standard gaps [3] ESG Events - The second China-Europe Enterprise ESG Best Practices Conference was held in Stuttgart, Germany, focusing on enhancing cooperation in the ESG field [4] - The conference highlighted the strategic consensus and practical alignment between China and Europe in ESG, aiming to reshape sustainable economic and trade paradigms [4] ESG Initiatives - The China Building Materials Federation released a report promoting sustainable development in the building materials industry and launched a public service platform for ESG practices [5] - This initiative aims to integrate key aspects such as information disclosure and financial support, establishing a closed-loop management system [5] Carbon Footprint Management - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment published China's first "Product Carbon Footprint Management System Progress Report 2025," indicating a strong start in carbon footprint management system construction [6] - The report states that over 70 national standards for carbon footprint accounting are in development, showcasing China's commitment to standardized carbon management [6] Green Energy Initiatives - The State Grid announced that the 2025 Summer Davos Forum will achieve 100% green energy supply, reducing carbon emissions significantly [7] - This initiative demonstrates a market-driven approach to clean energy consumption and provides a replicable model for green energy use in large events [7]