证券研究报告|行业研究周报 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 19.8 万人修正为 19.9 万人。美国第三季度 实际 GDP 年化季率终值 4.4%，预期 4.30%，前值 4.30%。美 国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率终值 3.5%，前值 3.5%。美 国第三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率终值 2.9%，预期 2.9% ，前值 2.90% 。美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数月率 0.2%，预期 0.20%。美国 11 月个人支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.50%。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 ...

Group 1: International News - The international precious metals market has reached a historic breakthrough, with spot gold surpassing $5000 per ounce for the first time, just over 100 days after it first crossed the $4000 mark on October 8, 2025. Gold prices continued to rise, breaking through $5010, $5020, and $5030, with a daily increase of 0.89% [1][8]. - New York futures gold also saw an increase, with a daily rise of 0.86%, breaking through the $5060 and $5070 levels. Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to increased purchases by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty [2][9]. - The silver market also performed strongly, with spot silver rising 2.80% to break through $105 and $106 per ounce, while New York futures silver increased by 4.61%, also surpassing the $105 and $106 levels [2][9]. - In the energy market, U.S. natural gas futures prices surged due to winter storms, with a daily increase exceeding 19%, currently reported at $6.288 per million British thermal units. Prices had already risen by 16% due to storm factors, climbing to $6.025 and $6.119 [2][9]. Group 2: Company Dynamics - Samsung Electronics announced it will supply the fourth generation of high-bandwidth memory to NVIDIA in February [4][11]. - Recent performance among U.S. tech stocks has been mixed, with five of the "Seven Giants" (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla) lagging behind the S&P 500 index since the end of October 2025, while only Alphabet and Amazon have maintained an upward trend [4][11]. - Upcoming earnings reports from Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, and Meta are anticipated, with market focus on their AI investment returns and the health of their various business lines [5][12]. Group 3: Domestic News - According to a report from the People's Daily, the national electricity market transaction volume in 2025 reached 6.6 trillion kilowatt-hours, with the number of newly established national standard materials increasing by 61.8% to 1139 items [6][13].

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Market Analysis - The national electricity market transaction volume is expected to reach 6.6 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025, with the largest express delivery network established globally [1][8] - In 2025, 1,139 new national standard substances will be created, representing a year-on-year increase of 61.8% [1][8] - A press conference will be held by the State Council Information Office to discuss the 2025 business work and operational situation [1] Group 2: External Markets and Related Assets - The international commodity market is experiencing significant volatility, with spot gold breaking the historic threshold of $5,000 per ounce, rising 0.89% to $5,030 per ounce [2][9] - New York futures gold also surpassed $5,070 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.07% [2][9] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased purchases by central banks, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainties, with the recent surge occurring just over 100 days after first crossing $4,000 [10] - New York silver futures broke $106 per ounce, increasing by 4.61%, while spot silver rose by 2.80% [10] - U.S. natural gas futures surged over 19% due to winter storms, currently priced at $6.288 per million British thermal units [10] - The Japanese yen appreciated approximately 0.8%, with the USD/JPY rate falling to 154.49, strengthening non-U.S. currencies [10] - The euro increased by 0.4% against the dollar to 1.1873, while the USD/CHF rate dropped over 0.6% to 0.7751 [10] - The cryptocurrency market is under pressure, with Bitcoin falling below $87,000, down 2.81%, and Ethereum dropping below $2,800, down 5.20% [5][10] Group 3: Institutional Views and Market Analysis - The U.S. tech sector is facing performance challenges, with five of the "Seven Giants" (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) underperforming the S&P 500 since October 2025 [6][11] - Market expectations regarding returns on AI investments have turned cautious [6][11] - Wells Fargo indicates that tech stocks have entered a phase where performance will dictate investment flows, with upcoming earnings reports from Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla expected to influence sector capital movement [6][11] Group 4: Company Announcements - Samsung Electronics is set to supply Nvidia with the fourth generation of high-bandwidth memory in February, which may impact the semiconductor supply chain [7][12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts during the upcoming meeting on January 27-28, with a 95.6% probability of maintaining current rates and only a 4.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The market's anticipation of the Fed's decision is influenced by recent employment and inflation data, which show mixed signals regarding the economic outlook [4][9] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market continues to decline, with Bitcoin experiencing a 7.3% drop this week, bringing its year-to-date gains close to zero [1] - Ethereum has fallen below $3,000, and other cryptocurrencies like BNB and Dogecoin have also seen declines of around 1% [1][2] - Nearly 100,000 traders faced liquidation in the last 24 hours, with total liquidation amounts reaching $121 million [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The latest PCE data indicates that the U.S. inflation rate remains elevated, with the November PCE index rising 2.8% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [4][5] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also rose by 2.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that are far from the Fed's long-term target of 2% [4][5] Group 4: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The U.S. government debt has reached $38.65 trillion, with plans to increase military spending by over 50% compared to the previous fiscal year [8] - The government's fiscal policies, including cuts to food and green energy subsidies, are raising concerns about long-term sustainability and could lead to a shift in investment preferences away from U.S. assets [8] Group 5: Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector is facing a downturn, with major companies like META and Microsoft experiencing significant stock price declines following earnings reports [7][9] - The performance of AI stocks has been mixed, with some leading companies seeing substantial losses, while others like Google have gained [7] - The upcoming earnings reports from tech giants will be crucial in determining market adjustments and investor sentiment [9]

Group 1: Market Trends - Spot silver increased over 7%, reaching approximately 103 USD/ounce [1] - Spot gold rose by 1%, peaking at about 4988 USD/ounce [1] - London copper surged by 3.4%, hitting 13187.50 USD/ton, close to its historical high earlier this month [1] - London tin rose by 9.5% and London nickel increased by 4.2% [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Southwest Securities' metal research team suggests focusing on four main lines: 1. Expansion of the denominator: Long-term bullish outlook on gold, with attention to Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and marginal changes in trade wars. The high gold-silver ratio indicates significant upward momentum for silver, making silver targets a priority [1] 2. Improvement of the numerator: A decline in alumina prices by 2025 will significantly enhance the unit profitability of electrolytic aluminum, with aluminum profits expected to remain high, though short-term demand weakness may lead to price declines for both copper and aluminum [1] 3. Key advantageous minerals such as rare earths, antimony, and tungsten are expected to perform better [1] 4. Supply-side disruptions due to anti-involution trends may present opportunities in the lithium carbonate sector [1] Group 3: Company Developments - Shandong Gold is actively increasing its resource reserves through multiple equity and exploration rights acquisitions since 2023 [2] - Xinyi Silver Tin's subsidiary, Yinman Mining, is one of the largest silver production mines in China, while its tin concentrate output ranks second nationally. Yubang Mining has the largest single silver mine reserves in Asia [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has reached a historic milestone, surpassing $100 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 45% driven by geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariffs on silver as a critical mineral [1][27][50]. Market Dynamics - The surge in silver prices has led to a significant increase in sales of silver products, including silver bars and coins, with some stores experiencing stock shortages due to high demand [1][28][30]. - Retailers report that customers are now purchasing silver coins in bulk, with sales of certain products, like the Panda silver coin, seeing prices rise from approximately 300 yuan to over 820 yuan [5][33]. - The retail market's heat is extending from large gold stores to smaller goldsmith shops, with some shops selling up to 45 kilograms of silver bars daily [13][37]. Production and Supply Chain - The demand for investment silver bars has prompted factories to adjust their production focus, shifting from primarily making silver jewelry to producing silver bars, with reports of factories working overtime to meet demand [21][42]. - The price of silver in retail settings has increased significantly, with the selling price for pure silver reaching 25 yuan per gram, more than tripling compared to the previous year [15][40]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly bringing out old silver items for sale, as the rising silver prices create new opportunities for profit [18][20]. - A notable case involves a consumer who received a silver thermos as a gift with a jewelry purchase, later discovering its silver content had appreciated significantly, highlighting the unexpected value of silver items [22][44].

2026年1月24日，伦敦现货白银报103.16美元/盎司，单日涨6.42%；沪银主连同步冲高至25650元/千克， 开年累计涨幅突破40%。 这场白银疯涨不是单纯的资本炒作，而是供需、政策、金融三重逻辑的硬核共振。 但价格一路飙涨的背后，现货挤仓、技术替代、政策变脸三大风险已浮出水面，随时可能终结这场市场 狂欢。 三大核心逻辑，托举白银创历史新高 白银能甩开黄金走出独立大涨行情，核心是踩中了工业刚需和供应短缺的双重风口，再加上金融市场的 资金助推，形成了短期难被打破的上涨闭环。 光伏产业是白银最大的消费主力。 2026年全球光伏用银量预计达1.5万吨，占工业用银总量的20%。新一代N型电池普及，让每GW光伏装 机的耗银量提升30%，隆基、晶科等头部企业为防涨价，提前锁价囤银，进一步加剧了现货市场的紧 张。 新能源车和AI产业同步放大白银需求。 新能源车单车用银量约50克，是燃油车的两倍，2026年全球新能源车销量预计1500万辆，单这一项就拉 动用银7500吨。 AI服务器的高端GPU芯片，单块耗银20克，算力基建提速，让白银的工业需求再添重要增量。 供应端的缺口已经到了极端状态。 全球72%的白银是铜铅锌 ...

湖南白银公告称，公司股票自2026年1月12日至23日连续10个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达 104.86%，属严重异常波动。截至1月23日，公司收盘价16.44元/股，静态及动态市盈率均高于行业平 均。经自查，公司前期信息无补充更正，经营正常，无应披露未披露重大事项，控股股东在此期间无买 卖公司股票情形。2025年1 - 9月，公司营收85.94亿元，净利润1.59亿元。公司提示投资者注意交易风 险。 ...

Group 1 - The silver market reached a historical high due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, indicating a significant decline in confidence towards U.S. assets, with funds flowing into precious metals for safety [1] - Investment demand and strong industrial consumption are competing for dwindling physical supply, creating a "perfect storm" that benefits silver [1] - The global demand for silver in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector has surged, with annual demand exceeding 5,000 tons, accounting for one-sixth of global silver production [1] Group 2 - The World Silver Association reports that due to surging demand from sectors like photovoltaics, AI, and electric vehicles, global industrial silver demand will continue to grow over the next five years, with industrial silver expected to make up 60% of total silver demand by 2025 [1] - Silver inventories in the London market have recently dropped to a 10-year low, indicating a structural deficit in the global silver market for five consecutive years, leading to rapidly depleting physical stocks [1] - The silver industry is experiencing a dual drive from its financial attributes and explosive industrial demand, resulting in a volatile upward trend in silver prices [1] Group 3 - Silver prices reached a key resistance level of $98.00, marking a historical high and demonstrating strong bullish momentum and buyer dominance [3] - The short-term outlook remains bullish, supported by a dynamic support line and positive signals from the relative strength index, suggesting a potential for further upward movement [3] - A breakout above the $98.00 resistance could lead to a rise towards the next resistance at $102.00, with a trading range expected between $94.00 support and $102.00 resistance [3]

国际金价23日创收盘新高 纽约白银期价23日创新高 本周大涨超14% 白银期货价格延续强劲涨势，周五突破每盎司100美元整数关口，分别创盘中和收盘历史新高。截至收盘， 纽约商品交易所3月交割的白银期价收于每盎司101.333美元，涨幅为5.15%。本周，受现货紧缺、工业需求 保持增长，以及避险和投资需求升温等多重因素推动，纽约白银期价累计大幅上涨14.45%。 贵金属方面，受多重地缘风险影响，投资者避险需求升温，加之日本和美国债市波动显著，部分债市资金 也涌向黄金避险。美元延续疲软态势，美元指数周五显著下跌，跌至去年9月中旬以来新低，利于以美元计 价的黄金价格上行，国际金价周五上涨，创收盘新高。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期价收于 每盎司4979.70美元，涨幅为1.35%。本周，国际金价累计大涨8.36%。 1月24日，纽约期金突破5000美元大关。 国内金饰价格跟涨。24日，周生生足金饰品标价1551元/克，较前一日1545元/克上涨6元/克。老庙黄金足金 饰品报1560元/克。 本周大涨超8% ...