从年内行情轨迹看，白银的牛市行情脉络清晰且极具爆发力。10月9日晚间，现货白银迎来历史性突破，盘中首次站上50美元/盎司；涨势进一步蔓延至10月 17日，现货白银冲高至54.468美元/盎司后进入高位震荡，期间一度急跌至45.513美元/盎司。11月起，白银重拾涨势，从48美元/盎司一线震荡走高，再度突 破50美元关口并触及54.394美元，短暂整理后于11月28日迎来新突破，当日现货白银最大涨幅超6%，突破56美元/盎司至56.533美元/盎司的历史新高，至此 今年以来累计涨幅已达95.24%，成为年内表现最强势的贵金属品种。 对于本轮白银的强劲涨势，苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟指出，核心驱动力来自三重因素的叠加共振。从金融属性与市场情绪看，美联储降息周期开启后，全 球私人投资者资金大规模涌入贵金属ETF，且市场普遍认为白银相对黄金存在明显估值洼地，催生强烈的"追赶式"补涨需求；从实物供需层面，全球交易所 白银库存已降至近十年低位，伦敦市场可自由流通白银较2019年峰值下降约75%，而光伏、电动汽车等工业领域需求持续增长，进一步加剧现货市场紧张； 短期市场机制也起到关键催化作用，美国贸易政策不确定性促使实物白银 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the economic main - line adheres to high - quality development, emphasizing new - quality productivity and modern industrial layout, and focusing on expanding domestic demand. The policy framework aims at structural adjustment, with coordinated fiscal and monetary policies. An active fiscal policy will continue, with the central bank expected to cut interest rates by 10 - 20BP and reduce the reserve requirement ratio once. Investment and consumption are expected to recover moderately, and inflation recovery is the biggest uncertainty in the bond market. The after - tax interest rate of 10 - year treasury bonds will fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with a mid - bond valuation of 1.75 - 1.95%, and the rhythm may be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" Adheres to High - Quality Development, Balancing Development and Security - **External Environment and Goal Orientation**: The "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" period faces a more uncertain external environment, with strategic opportunities coexisting with risks and challenges. The goal is to achieve a moderately developed level of per capita GDP by 2035, and the GDP of the "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" and "Sixteenth Five - Year Plan" periods needs to grow at an average annual rate of 4.17%. The development main - line is centered around economic construction, with high - quality development as the theme and reform and innovation as the driving force [8][21]. - **Supply - and - Demand - Side Joint Efforts**: The supply side focuses on new - quality productivity and modern industrial layout, while the demand side aims to boost consumption and expand effective investment. In the short term, the economic fundamentals need to be consolidated, but the 2025 target is not difficult to achieve [23][24][27]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy Boosts Domestic Demand, and Monetary Policy Continues the New Model - **Macro Policy Framework**: China has formed a complete macro - policy framework aiming at structural transformation, coordinating multiple policies to promote sustainable economic growth and adjust the economic structure [32]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The active fiscal policy will continue, with a focus on boosting consumption and expanding effective investment. The estimated deficit rates of 4% and 4.5% may result in deficit scales of 6 trillion and 6.7 trillion yuan respectively. The government will also continue to promote debt resolution [34][35][40]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank will use interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts cautiously, with an expected interest rate cut of 10 - 20BP and a single reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026. It will adopt a new model of combining cautious use of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts with active use of structural tools to maintain liquidity and support the real economy [43][46]. 3.3 Investment Focuses More on Efficiency, and Inflation May Continuously Improve - **Investment**: In 2026, investment will increase, with a focus on efficiency and concentration in key projects, regions, and industries. Real estate is expected to remain at a low level, infrastructure investment will be targeted, and manufacturing investment will focus on new - quality productivity [54][57][63]. - **Consumption**: Consumption is expected to continue to improve, with consumer confidence rising and the special treasury bond expenditure for trade - in programs likely to be no less than 300 billion yuan in 2026 [66]. - **Inflation**: The decline in PPI is expected to continue to narrow, and CPI may turn positive, growing by about 0.4% in 2026 [71]. 3.4 Liquidity and Interest Rate Outlook - **Funding**: The central bank will maintain stable and low - volatility funding prices, and the 10 - year treasury bond after - tax interest rate will fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with a mid - bond valuation of 1.75 - 1.95%, and the rhythm may be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [11][75][103]. - **External Factors**: The Fed's entry into the interest rate cut cycle may lead to an increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness, which may affect liquidity. Deposit transfer may continue, increasing the bank's liability pressure [81][87]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In 2026, the 10 - year treasury bond will fluctuate around the policy rate, and the long - term interest rate is expected to remain volatile at a low level. The bond market will have low volatility, and the interest rate will maintain a low - level oscillation [97][103].

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 11 月，理财规模温和增长 [Table_Summary] ►11 月，理财规模小增 700+亿元 非银机构需求回升，非银机构开始加杠杆。平均杠杆水平由前一 周的 111.71%升至 112.19 %。日度来看，由周一的 111.83%逐步加杠 杆至周四 112.55%的区间高点，周五小幅回调 0.62pct 至 111.92%。 ►债基久期继续压缩 11 月 24-28 日，或受基金赎回相关传闻扰动，债市仍然维持震荡格 局。在此背景下，各机构对久期的博弈维持谨慎，利率型与信用型中长债 基继续压缩久期。按照稳定模型计算，利率型中长债基久期周度平均值由 前一周的 3.51 年压缩至 3.49 年，信用型中长债基久期周度平均值则由前 一周的 2.14 年压缩至 2.13 年。 与此同时，中短债基金久期也在压缩，久期均值由前一周的 1.40年压 缩至 1.38 年；短债基金久期中枢则由前一周的 0.75 年小幅升至 0.76年。 风险提示 本周（24-28 日）理财规模转降，环比降 1328 亿元至 ...

当地时间周四，芝商所集团遭遇系统故障，全球外汇、大宗商品及股票期货交易停滞近11小时。故障后 白银和铜价飙升创纪录新高，白银受美联储降息预期、资金流入ETF、供应紧张等因素支撑，铜价则因 供应短缺和看涨预测上涨。市场猜测故障与白银价格突破有关，但芝商所称是技术性问题。详情>> 六大国有行停售5年期大额存单，存款利率或下行 来源：喜娜AI 金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，喜娜AI为您呈上今日财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及政策更 新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 头部券商副总裁违规炒股，被罚没1.35亿 11月28日晚间，江苏证监局公布罚单，某头部券商原副总裁陈某涛，利用未公开信息交易股票盈利1875 万元，违规买卖证券盈利2640万元，合计被罚没1.35亿元，还被采取8年和5年的证券市场禁入措施。陈 某涛曾申辩称自己为金融行业作过贡献，请求减轻处罚，但未被证监局采纳。详情>> 日本增发巨额国债刺激经济，债汇市场承压 11月28日消息，日本政府拟增发约11.7万亿日元国债，为新一轮经济刺激方案提 ...

Fund Overview - The fund is named "招商上证综合增强策略交易型开放式指数证券投资基金" (referred to as "招商上证综合增强策略 ETF") and is a stock-type open-ended index fund [36] - The fund aims to control the average tracking deviation of its net asset value growth rate from the performance benchmark to not exceed 0.35% daily and 6.5% annually, while seeking to outperform the benchmark index [37] Fund Issuance Details - The fund will be available for subscription from December 10, 2025, to December 19, 2025, with options for online cash subscription and offline cash subscription [5][38] - The minimum subscription amount for online cash subscription is 1,000 shares or multiples thereof, with a maximum of 99,999,000 shares [2] - The fund's subscription price is set at RMB 1.00 per share [37] Subscription Process - Investors must have a securities account to subscribe to the fund, specifically a Shanghai Stock Exchange A-share account or a securities investment fund account [44] - For online cash subscriptions, investors can submit multiple subscription applications during the subscription period, and funds will be frozen upon confirmation of the application [2][50] - Offline cash subscriptions require investors to submit various documents, including identification and proof of funds, to the fund management company [51] Fund Management and Custody - The fund is managed by 招商基金管理有限公司 (招商 Fund Management Co., Ltd.) and is custodied by 中国工商银行股份有限公司 (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China) [36][62] - The fund's registration and settlement will be handled by 中国证券登记结算有限责任公司 (China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited) [65] Investor Information - The fund is open to individual investors, institutional investors, qualified foreign investors, and other investors permitted by law [36] - Investors are encouraged to read the fund's contract and prospectus available on the fund management company's website and the China Securities Regulatory Commission's electronic disclosure website [3]

Core Insights - The "2025 Easy Financing and Industrial Integration" annual conference aims to explore new paths for financial empowerment of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Chengdu [1] - Chengdu has established two trillion-level and ten hundred-billion-level industrial clusters, with eight national-level characteristic industrial clusters for SMEs [1] - In 2024, financial products like "Zhuangda Loan" and "Rongyi Loan" helped technology-based SMEs secure credit loans totaling 10.4 billion yuan [1] Group 1 - The conference gathered over 260 participants from government agencies, banks, and securities companies to discuss financial empowerment for the real economy [1] - The event aims to convert policy dividends into development momentum, addressing financing challenges for 410 national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises [1] - Chengdu's Economic and Information Bureau introduced the "Chenggong Jingxiao Industrial Taobao" platform to assist enterprises in market expansion, brand strengthening, and order acquisition [1] Group 2 - A new "Scenario Application Promotion Office" was established to deepen the integration of manufacturing and cutting-edge technology [1] - The "Four Special One Family" service model was launched to enhance service delivery [1] - The "Economic New Scenario Steward" online channel was introduced to link innovative services with market demands in real-time [1] Group 3 - The "2025 Policy Handbook" e-book was launched to facilitate quick policy inquiries and intelligent matching for enterprises [2] - The conference included a ceremony for the "Expert Service Team" representatives to strengthen the intellectual support of the service system [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-28 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Core Viewpoints - The evolution of the international monetary system has consistently exhibited a stable "center-periphery" structure, where a few currencies dominate while the majority remain peripheral [2][3][4] - The stability of the monetary order is rooted in the nature of money as a "high-order belief," where individuals accept currency based on mutual trust in its value and acceptance by others [2][28] - The transition from one dominant currency to another is rare and often requires a combination of economic shifts and institutional reforms to facilitate the emergence of a new center [3][4] Historical Evolution of the International Monetary System - The historical perspective shows that the monetary order has maintained internal stability, with dominant currencies typically lasting one to two centuries [5][6] - The shift from the Spanish dollar to the Dutch guilder marked a transition from metal-based currency to credit-based systems, emphasizing the importance of financial innovation and institutional credibility [9][11] - The establishment of the classical gold standard in the 19th century created a more structured international monetary order, driven by the need for exchange rate stability and transaction efficiency [12][13] The Role of Trust and Institutional Frameworks - The essence of money is a social contract based on trust, where its value is derived from the issuer's commitment to honor debts [27][28] - Sovereign currencies differ from commodity or cryptocurrency due to state backing and legal tender status, ensuring their acceptance and circulation [28][29] - The natural monopoly of money arises from network effects, where increased usage enhances liquidity and reduces transaction costs, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle [29][30] Current Trends and Future Outlook - The current dollar-centric system is facing challenges as global trade and capital flows diversify, with potential for the renminbi to rise as a reserve currency through reforms and market-driven mechanisms [5][26] - The international monetary system is undergoing structural changes, with emerging economies seeking greater independence in currency management and exchange rate flexibility [25][26] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and financial sanctions have prompted a reassessment of the dollar's safety as an asset, leading to increased diversification in the global monetary landscape [26][39]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 356.4 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 27, with a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 300 billion yuan maturing [1]. Group 2: Liquidity Conditions - The central bank has shifted to net injection in the open market, ensuring ample liquidity in the interbank market, with overnight repo rates slightly declining to around 1.31% [3]. - The overnight pricing in the anonymous click (X-repo) system is at 1.28%, with supply close to 200 billion yuan [3]. - Non-bank institutions are borrowing overnight funds using credit bonds as collateral, with rates dropping below 1.4% [3]. - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.01% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit is at 1.65%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [6]. Group 4: Government Bonds and Futures - The main contracts for government bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year contract down 0.01%, the 10-year down 0.06%, and the 5-year down 0.01%, while the 2-year contract saw a slight increase of 0.01% [11]. Group 5: Economic Indicators - In October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 5.5% year-on-year, while the total profit for January to October reached 59,502.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced the allocation of 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan in special bonds for "hard investment" projects in the previous and current years, respectively [12]. - The NDRC is actively promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include more sectors and asset types [13]. Group 6: Global Macro Developments - The Japanese government plans to issue more bonds to fund an economic stimulus package, with an additional budget of approximately 18.3 trillion yen (about 117 billion USD) funded by issuing 11.7 trillion yen in bonds [15]. - The Bank of Korea maintained its key interest rate at 2.5%, aligning with market expectations, and revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0% from 0.9% [15]. Group 7: Bond Market Events - Vanke bonds experienced significant declines, with "21 Vanke 02" dropping over 57% and other bonds falling by more than 40% [17]. - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank plans to hold a meeting on December 10 to discuss the extension of "22 Vanke MTN004" [17]. - Tianfeng Securities intends to issue up to 9.6 billion USD in offshore bonds to ensure the normal repayment of existing debts [17]. Group 8: Non-Standard Asset Risks - Recent disclosures indicate multiple non-standard asset defaults related to trust plans, highlighting ongoing risks in the market [18].

Group 1 - The global stock market is recovering as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut rise, and concerns over an AI bubble have subsided [1] - The UK budget report revealed a fiscal buffer increase to £22 billion and a significant GDP growth downgrade to 1.4% for 2026, causing volatility in the GBP [1] - Morgan Stanley has ended its bullish stance on the GBP, suggesting that the currency's appeal is diminishing due to a lack of local economic drivers and a near-zero correlation with the stock market [1] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 1.2% at 50,167.10 points, while the Korean Composite Index rose 0.7% [5] - The GBP/USD exchange rate remained stable at 1.3245, and the US dollar index was flat at 99.596 [5] - Silver prices increased by nearly 0.7% to $53.69 per ounce, while gold prices fell by 0.05% to $4,151.69 per ounce [5] Group 3 - The Japanese yen remains weak despite verbal intervention from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, trading at 156.22 against the US dollar [8] - Oil prices have slightly declined as the market awaits developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting [10]