Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the need to deepen comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, enhancing the inclusiveness, adaptability, attractiveness, and competitiveness of the capital market to better serve the "14th Five-Year Plan" development goals and the construction of a financial power [1][2]. Group 1: Key Points from the Meeting - The meeting outlined five key focus areas for the next steps in capital market reform, including enhancing market resilience and risk resistance, cultivating high-quality listed companies, and establishing a stable market ecosystem [2]. - The reform aims to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, and strengthen the functions of the bond and futures markets [2]. - The CSRC plans to enhance the effectiveness and deterrence of regulatory enforcement, focusing on severe penalties for securities and futures violations, and advancing digital and intelligent regulation [2]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of promoting deeper and higher-level capital market opening, balancing openness with security, and supporting Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [2]. - Strengthening the integrity and construction of the CSRC's party discipline and cadre team is also a priority, ensuring strict governance and accountability [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Market analysts believe that the five focus areas provide a clear "blueprint" for the high-quality development of the capital market, continuing the reform trajectory established by the new "National Nine Articles" [3]. - As of October 26, there are 5,440 listed companies in the A-share market, with a total market capitalization of 106.6 trillion yuan. In the first half of the year, A-share companies reported a total revenue of 34.93 trillion yuan, a slight increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.99 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.55% [3]. - The CSRC emphasizes the need for large-scale research to scientifically plan the strategic tasks and major initiatives for the capital market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming for a solid foundation for high-quality development in the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [3].

中国证监会近日在传达学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神时，就资本市场改革提出了"五个着力"，明 确了下一步资本市场高质量发展的路线图，即进一步深化投融资综合改革，持续增强我国资本市场的 包容性、适应性和吸引力、竞争力。 改革仍是资本市场未来发展的主线。清华大学国家金融研究院院长田轩表示，政策将保持改革的连续性、 稳定性和一致性，围绕深化注册制改革、大力发展多层次市场体系、全面提升上市公司质量、扩大高水平 制度型开放等重点展开，进一步提升市场功能、优化市场结构、防范市场风险，更好服务实体经济高质量 发展。 夯实市场"稳"的基础 风平浪静好行船。市场稳定是推进资本市场全面深化改革的基础。在谈及首个"着力"时，证监会明确，要 着力增强资本市场的韧性和抗风险能力。培育和发展高质量的上市公司群体，完善"长钱长投"的市场生 态，加强长效化稳市机制建设，持续夯实市场稳定的内在基础。 历史经验表明，在外部环境严峻复杂、市场情绪不稳的关键时刻，维护市场稳定是重中之重。过去一段时 间，"稳市场"被多次提及。面对国际市场剧烈动荡，在中央统筹部署下，多部门协调打出了一揽子稳市"组 合拳"，从央行创设两大支持资本市场的货币政策工具，到中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on the strategic planning for the 15th Five-Year Plan and the need for the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to enhance its regulatory framework and support for high-quality economic development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Meeting Highlights - The meeting recognized the significant achievements made in the past five years under the leadership of the Central Committee, attributing these successes to the guidance of Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era [2]. - The CSRC is tasked with improving its political stance and aligning its actions with the Central Committee's decisions, emphasizing the importance of risk prevention and high-quality development in the capital market [3]. Group 2: Strategic Focus Areas - The CSRC aims to enhance the resilience and risk resistance of the capital market by fostering high-quality listed companies and establishing a stable market ecosystem [3]. - There is a focus on improving the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market regulations, including reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [3]. - The meeting highlighted the need for effective regulatory enforcement, emphasizing the crackdown on securities and futures violations and the advancement of digital and intelligent regulatory measures [3]. - The CSRC plans to deepen the opening of the capital market, balancing openness with security, and supporting Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [3]. - Strengthening the integrity and construction of the CSRC's workforce is also a priority, with a commitment to enhancing party discipline and anti-corruption measures [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current uncertainty in tariff progress is high, and the short - term decline in market risk appetite is conducive to the repair of the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to maintain an overall shock under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to repair shockingly [11]. - The economic growth rate in the third quarter slightly exceeded expectations. Exports were resilient in September, and the growth rate of industrial added value exceeded expectations. However, the growth rates of consumption and investment continued to slow down. In the future, attention should be paid to the driving effect of new policy - based financial instruments and the incremental debt balance limit of 500 billion yuan on the growth rate in the fourth quarter [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Economic and Policy Situation - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter exceeded expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In September, industrial added value remained resilient, while the consumption and investment sectors continued to recover weakly. The "anti - involution" has boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production still needs to be observed. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals, and the pressure to achieve the goals this year is not great. Policy may focus more on the connection with next year, and there is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the US inflation data in September was slightly lower than expected, strengthening the logic of further interest rate cuts [10]. - In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. In September, social consumer goods retail sales were 419.71 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year [10]. - From January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing in China was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. National real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 722.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% [10]. - The new Japanese Prime Minister is preparing an economic stimulus plan worth more than 13.9 trillion yen (about $92.19 billion) [10]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total foreign - related payments and receipts reached $11.6 trillion, a record high for the same period. Cross - border capital inflows were $119.7 billion, and the bank settlement and sales surplus was $63.2 billion, both higher than the same period last year. In September, the cross - border income and expenditure of non - bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals totaled $1.37 trillion, a month - on - month increase of 7% [10]. - On the morning of October 25, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [10]. - In September, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. The core CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, also lower than the expected 3.1% [10]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in October was 52.2, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, both exceeding expectations [10]. Liquidity - This week, the central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 789.1 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [11]. Interest Rates - The latest 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.85%, a week - on - week increase of 2.52 BP; the 30 - year treasury bond yield was 2.21%, a week - on - week increase of 1.20 BP. The latest 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, with no week - on - week change [11]. Summary - The current bond market is expected to maintain an overall shock. In terms of rhythm, attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to repair shockingly [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF contracts [16][22][25][28]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - In the second quarter of 2025, China's GDP actual growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, while the service PMI was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value [45]. - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In terms of month - on - month data, the CPI increased by 0.1%, the core CPI remained unchanged, and the PPI remained unchanged [54]. - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 27.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 15.6% year - on - year [57]. - In September, the industrial added value increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and the social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year [60]. - From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and manufacturing investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year [63]. - In September, the new construction area of houses decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the construction area of houses decreased by 9.4% year - on - year [66]. - In September, the completion - end data decreased by 15.45% year - on - year, and the new - house sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened recently [69]. Foreign Economy - In the second quarter, the US GDP nominal annualized figure was $3,033.1 billion, with an actual year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 3% year - on - year [72]. - In August, the US durable goods orders were $312.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3% [75]. - In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50. In the second quarter, the EU GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [78]. - In September, the eurozone CPI increased by 2.2% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the service PMI was 51.3 [81]. 4. Liquidity - In September, the M1 growth rate was 7.2%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4%. The M1 - M2 scissors difference continued to narrow. The social financing increment was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 233.9 billion yuan [86]. - In September, the growth rate of social financing in the government bond segment slowed down, while the financing of the real - economy sector remained stable. The social financing growth rate of residents and enterprises was 5.94%, and the government bond growth rate was 20.20% [89]. - In September, the MLF balance was 5.85 trillion yuan, and the net MLF investment was 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [92]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The report presents the changes in various market interest rates including repurchase rates, treasury bond yields, and US treasury bond yields [95]. - The report also shows the trends of treasury bond yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, US treasury bond yields, and exchange rates [99][102][104].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of implementing the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, focusing on risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development in the capital market [1][2]. Group 1: Enhancing Market Resilience and Risk Management - The CSRC aims to strengthen the resilience and risk management capabilities of the capital market by cultivating high-quality listed companies and improving the long-term investment ecosystem [1]. - There is a focus on establishing a stable market mechanism to solidify the internal foundation for market stability [1]. Group 2: Improving Market Inclusiveness and Adaptability - The CSRC plans to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, enhancing the nurturing functions of multi-tiered equity markets such as the New Third Board, private equity, and venture capital [2]. - Strengthening the functions of the bond and futures markets is also a priority [2]. Group 3: Enhancing Regulatory Effectiveness - The CSRC will intensify efforts to combat various securities and futures violations, accelerating the advancement of digital and intelligent regulation [1]. - There is a commitment to improving legal frameworks and enhancing the protection of investor rights [1]. Group 4: Promoting Market Openness - The CSRC aims to advance the opening of the capital market to a deeper and higher level, balancing openness with security [2]. - Efforts will be made to support Hong Kong in consolidating its status as an international financial center and to enhance international regulatory cooperation [2]. Group 5: Strengthening Internal Governance - The CSRC emphasizes the importance of party discipline and the construction of a competent regulatory team, focusing on accountability and continuous improvement in governance [2]. - There is a commitment to rigorous oversight and the promotion of a culture of integrity within the organization [2].

本报记者 吴晓璐 据中国证监会网站消息，10月24日，中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清主持召开党委（扩大）会议，认真传达学习党的二十 届四中全会精神，按照金融系统学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神会议的工作要求，研究部署贯彻落实举措。 二是着力提高资本市场制度的包容性、适应性。深化科创板、创业板改革，充分发挥新三板、私募股权和创业投资等多层 次股权市场培育功能，强化债券和期货市场功能发挥。 三是着力提升监管执法的有效性和震慑力。突出打大打恶打重点，依法从严打击各类证券期货违法违规活动，加快推进数 字化、智能化监管，加强资本市场法治建设，不断提升监管效能和投资者权益保护质效。 四是着力推动资本市场开放迈向更深层次、更高水平。统筹开放与安全，有序推进市场、产品和机构双向开放，加快建设 世界一流交易所，支持香港巩固提升国际金融中心地位。深化国际监管合作，切实提升开放环境下的风险防控水平和监管能 力。 五是着力加强证监会系统党风廉政建设和干部队伍建设。压实管党治党政治责任，扎实推进中央巡视整改和作风建设常态 化长效化，自觉接受驻证监会纪检监察组等各方面监督和指导，坚定不移正风肃纪反腐。坚持严管厚爱结合、激励约束并重， 加快锻 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - The A-share market showed a "slow bull" trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high on October 24 due to the easing of Sino-US negotiations. The market style is expected to adopt a dumbbell strategy in the short term, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500. [7][8][13] - The bond market was suppressed by the stock market this week, and bond yields mostly increased, with the short end rising more significantly. The bond market lacks direct positive stimuli in the short term, and it is still necessary to wait patiently for a counterattack opportunity. [99] - The container shipping futures continued to rebound this week, with the SCFIS rising above 1100 points. The bottom of the freight rate for the year may have been reached, and there is an opportunity for the December contract to recover from oversold conditions. [116][131] Summary by Directory Stock Index Market Review - The A-share market showed a trend of "short-term correction followed by a strong run, a sharp decline after being impacted externally, a rebound, and then a continuous upward trend, and a consolidation after the positive news was realized and the negotiations were deadlocked." From October 20 to 24, the A-share market rose with shrinking volume, and small and medium-cap stocks performed more strongly. [7][10] - In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the outcome of the Sino-US negotiations. If there are no black swan events, it may help the index break through further. In the short term, the market style will adopt a dumbbell strategy, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500. [13] 成交持仓分析 - The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the positions also generally declined. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 115,200 lots, 54,500 lots, 134,500 lots, and 225,700 lots respectively, with changes of -51,700 lots, -23,600 lots, -47,800 lots, and -64,800 lots compared with last week. The average daily positions were 257,100 lots, 91,800 lots, 245,300 lots, and 355,200 lots respectively, with changes of -20,000 lots, -9,500 lots, -16,000 lots, and -12,300 lots compared with last week. [14] 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - The basis trend was differentiated. The basis of CSI 300 narrowed, the basis of SSE 50 changed from discount to premium, and the basis of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 also narrowed. The annualized basis rate also showed similar trends. [18][19][21] - The spread between the next-month and current-month contracts of IF, IC, and IM was negative, and the spread of IH was positive. The spread between the current-quarter and current-month contracts of IF, IC, and IM was negative, and the spread of IH was positive. [22] - Small and medium-cap stocks performed relatively better. The ratios of CSI 300/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 500, CSI 300/CSI 1000, and SSE 50/CSI 1000 were at different historical percentile levels. [25] Industry Sector Overview - In terms of the CSI 300 sub-industry, the communication, information, and industrial sectors led the gains, while the consumption and real estate sectors led the losses. In terms of the CSI 500 sub-industry, the information, energy, and industrial sectors led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and consumption sectors led the losses. [26][29] - From the perspective of the primary industry, the communication, electronics, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, food and beverage, and beauty care sectors led the losses. [31] Valuation Comparison - As of October 24, 2025, the rolling price-to-earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.4576 times, 12.26 times, 33.948 times, and 46.4532 times respectively, and they were at the 90.37%, 94.11%, 81.2%, and 73.01% percentile levels in the past ten years. [33] Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The stock-bond seesaw effect continued this week, and the stock market rebound suppressed the bond market. The long-term futures performed stronger than the spot bonds, while the short-term bonds were the opposite. There is a certain positive arbitrage space in the 30-year, 10-year, and 2-year main contracts, but it is necessary to be cautious when participating in the reverse arbitrage strategy. The 10-year basis is particularly low and has a certain upward regression space. The 2603 contract has poor liquidity, so it is not recommended to participate in the inter-period strategy. Pay attention to the flattening strategy. [38][41][45][56][59] - Bond Spot Market: The yields of most treasury bond spot bonds increased this week, with the short end rising more significantly. The US bond yields first decreased and then increased. [70] - Funding: As the tax payment peak approached, the central bank switched to net investment. The funding situation tightened slightly but remained generally stable, with no liquidity stratification between banks and non-banks. [77][79] - Interest Rate Derivatives: The yields of interest rate swaps increased slightly this week, and the liquidity expectation was stable. [93] Market Analysis - Recent Market Logic: In October, the bond market entered a window period where risks were gradually cleared after negative news was realized. The market stabilized but still lacked a trigger for a counterattack, such as clear monetary easing. It is necessary to pay attention to the possible repeated risks in Sino-US trade negotiations. [99] - This Week's Fundamental Situation: The GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations. From the demand side, exports and consumption were relatively resilient, while investment demand weakened significantly. The industrial production demand rebounded, but there is a risk of a decline in the fourth quarter. The export in September exceeded expectations, but the domestic demand side performed poorly, with consumption slowing down significantly and investment falling into negative growth. The real estate market has not yet stabilized. [100][101][102] - Next Week's Bond Market Outlook: Short-term monetary easing is difficult to implement, and the bond market lacks a clear main line. It is still necessary to trade bonds based on the stock market. Pay attention to the Sino-US trade negotiations next week. [113] Next Week's Open Market Maturity and Important Economic Calendar - A total of 156.72 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and MLF will mature next week. Economic data such as industrial enterprise profits for September and the official PMI for October will be released. [115] Shipping Index Market Review - The container shipping futures continued to rebound this week, with the SCFIS rising above 1100 points. The spot freight rates of shipping companies continued to increase in November, and the far-month pessimistic expectations continued to be repaired due to the resurgence of the Hamas-Israel conflict. [116] Container Shipping Market Situation - Spot Market: The freight rates of ocean routes continued to rebound, with the rates of European and American routes increasing. Shipping companies continued to support the freight rates for November, and the bottom of the freight rate for the year may have been reached. [124][125] - Container Shipping Supply and Demand Fundamentals: On the supply side, the container shipping capacity in Europe in October was still at a relatively high level in the off-season, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the macro demand in the eurozone continued to recover weakly, and the demand side may have limited support for the container shipping price. [127][128] Market Outlook - October is a traditional off-season, and the supply pressure still exists. However, shipping companies have started to support the freight rates for the year-end long-term contract season, and the bottom of the freight rate for the year may have been reached. There is an opportunity for the December contract to recover from oversold conditions. [131]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) plans to advance a series of key initiatives over the next six months to enhance the fixed income and currency markets in Hong Kong, focusing on four main pillars: promoting issuance, increasing liquidity, expanding offshore RMB business, and developing new generation infrastructure [1][2] Group 1: Key Initiatives - The SFC aims to attract more local and overseas issuers to utilize Hong Kong as a financing hub, thereby promoting issuance [1] - To increase liquidity, the SFC will implement an over-the-counter fixed income and currency derivatives system and promote the development of a central counterparty for repurchase transactions in Hong Kong [2] - The expansion of offshore RMB business will involve enhancing the application of offshore RMB, improving connectivity mechanisms, and increasing the supply of RMB-related products [2] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The SFC will prepare for infrastructure development in the fixed income and currency markets to support the new generation of electronic trading platforms [2] - The application of tokenized fixed income and currency products will be implemented as part of the new generation infrastructure initiatives [2]

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the macro - financial situation, including stocks, bonds, and various commodity sectors, on October 23, 2025, considering factors such as Sino - US relations, policies, and supply - demand dynamics [2]. 1. Macro - financial Core View - Sino - US game persists in the short - term, global risk appetite cools, domestic economic growth accelerates, and policy support increases. Market trading focuses on domestic stimulus policies and Sino - US game, with short - term upward macro - drive weakening [2]. Asset Recommendations - **Stocks**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious long [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term shock, cautious waiting [2]. - **Commodities** - **Black Metals**: Short - term shock, cautious waiting [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious long [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term shock, cautious waiting [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level correction, cautious waiting [2]. 2. Stock Index Market Performance - Domestic stocks decline slightly due to the drag of precious metals, base metals, and battery sectors [3]. Fundamental and Policy Analysis - Domestic economic growth accelerates, Sino - US game affects risk preference, and increased policy support boosts risk preference. Market trading focuses on domestic policies and Sino - US game, with short - term upward drive weakening [3]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term cautious long [3]. 3. Precious Metals Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the precious metals market declined overall. Shanghai gold futures dropped 1.56% to 934.72 yuan/gram, and spot gold fell 0.73% to $4093.77 per ounce. Shanghai silver futures rose 0.04% to 11331 yuan/kg [3]. Trend Analysis - Short - term high - level correction, long - term upward pattern unchanged [3]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term: Reduce long positions and wait; long - term: Buy on dips [3]. 4. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, with low trading volume [4]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Macro - level factors cause market divergence. Real demand is weak but improving marginally, with inventory decreasing and apparent consumption rising. Supply is expected to decline due to compressed profits [4]. - **Trend Judgment**: No trending market, limited upside and downside in the short - term [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded [5][6]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Iron water output is expected to decline further. Global iron ore shipments increased by 126000 tons this week, and arrivals decreased by 526400 tons. The price difference between Carajás fines and PB fines narrowed [6]. - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound thinking [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, spot prices were flat, and futures prices rebounded slightly [7]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Alloy demand decreased due to lower steel output. Silicon manganese production capacity utilization increased slightly. Silicon iron prices and raw material prices were stable [7]. - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound [7]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, Shanghai copper was strong. US copper inventory is at a historical high, and an Indonesian mine's suspension supports prices [9]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The suspension is temporary, and next year is a year of high copper supply growth. Domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected [9]. - **Trend Judgment**: High - level shock [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, supported by the overseas market [9]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: An overseas smelter's accident affected a small amount of capacity. Domestic aluminum fundamentals are poor, but market expectations are neutral - bullish. London aluminum inventory decreased [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Be cautious about short - selling in the short - term [10]. Tin - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by Indonesian policies and Myanmar's production. Demand is weak in traditional industries and affected by pre - installed demand in the photovoltaic industry. High prices suppress demand, and inventory decreased this week [11]. - **Trend Judgment**: High - level shock [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 1.63% to 76740 yuan/ton, with increased positions [12]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply and demand both increased, with strong seasonal demand and inventory de - stocking [12]. - **Trend Judgment**: Bullish shock, pay attention to resistance levels [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.06% to 8500 yuan/ton, with increased positions [12]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Production reached a new high, and there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. The 2511 contract faces pressure from warehouse receipts [12]. - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound, pay attention to cost support [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, the main contract fell 0.55% to 50235 yuan/ton, with decreased positions. Warehouse receipts increased [13]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply is high, demand is low, and wait for the implementation of state - reserve news [13][14]. - **Trend Judgment**: Pay attention to spot price support [14]. 6. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: US sanctions on Russian oil companies and EIA inventory data led to a significant rebound in oil prices [15]. - **Trend Judgment**: Long - term downward expectation remains [15]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Oil price rebound drove asphalt prices up, but the basis is low, and trading volume is light. Factory inventory pressure persists, and social inventory is being depleted in East China [15]. - **Trend Judgment**: Pay attention to the rebound space of crude oil, and the fundamental driving force for recovery is weak [15]. PX - **Market Performance**: Crude oil price rebound and processing fee repair demand are expected to lead to a range - bound adjustment. PXN spread rebounded slightly [16]. - **Trend Judgment**: Tight - balance in October, likely to follow the energy - chemical sector to rebound slightly and then stabilize [16]. PTA - **Market Performance**: Crude oil price rebound drove PTA up, but demand is low, processing fee is low, and inventory is accumulating. Basis is negative, and short - selling positions are increasing [16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short on rallies, limited follow - up to crude oil [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Price is at a low level, port inventory increased, and demand is weak. Oil price rebound drove a slight increase in futures prices [17]. - **Trend Judgment**: Likely to be weak again [17]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: Followed the polyester sector and oil prices to rebound slightly [17]. - **Trend Judgment**: Weak - shock pattern, follow the polyester sector and consider shorting on rallies [17]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: Domestic methanol prices are mixed, and inventory increased. Supply decreased in the short - term, and demand from olefins is high, leading to a slight improvement in the supply - demand structure [19]. - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound in the short - term [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: Market prices are range - bound, and inventory decreased [20]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply growth exceeds demand, and inventory is high. Crude oil price recovery improved market sentiment, but prices are still weak [20]. - **Trend Judgment**: Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand [20]. LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Prices are adjusted, with some regional increases. Supply increased, and inventory accumulated, suppressing prices. Demand is differentiated, and the overall demand support is limited [20]. - **Trend Judgment**: Market is under pressure [20]. Urea - **Market Performance**: Prices are stable. The 2026 fertilizer import tariff quota has limited impact on urea prices [21]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand from compound fertilizers is ending, and agricultural demand is recovering. Exports are shrinking [21]. - **Trend Judgment**: May rise slightly after a stalemate, but there is a risk of decline later [21]. 7. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose 0.12% to 1049.75 on the overnight market [22]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Argentine weather is good. Sino - US soybean trade is the key factor for the future [22]. - **Trend Judgment**: Narrow - range shock, maintain a wait - and - see attitude [22]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: Oil mill operating rate is high, and there is a phenomenon of urging delivery. Mills are in loss, and the willingness to support prices is strong. There is a supply gap risk before the South American new soybean harvest [22][23]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Supply is tight due to low operating rate, and it follows soybean meal's trend [23]. - **Trend Judgment**: Soybean meal may stabilize after an oversold decline [23]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term prices may be dragged down by palm oil. It is in the peak season, but trading is unchanged. The price difference between soybean and palm oil provides consumption expectations [23]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Before the supply of Australian rapeseed and Russian oil, inventory reduction supports the basis [23]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight CBOT soybean oil decline may drag down palm oil futures. Malaysian palm oil production increased in October, and domestic inventory increased [24]. - **Trend Judgment**: MPOC expects prices to be stable above 4400 ringgit/ton for the rest of 2025 [24]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn prices are strong, and new - season corn is being listed. Demand is positive, and farmers may be reluctant to sell [24]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: Breeding profits are in loss, and the supply peak has not arrived. Pig prices rebounded slightly, and the sentiment of secondary fattening is cautious [25]. - **Trend Judgment**: Difficult to rebound significantly before the winter solstice, but the risk of extreme decline is low [25].

责任编辑：郭建 10月22日，在2025HKEX中国机遇论坛上，香港证券及期货事务监察委员会执行董事叶志衡表示，香港 证监会未来6个月将重点做十项工作：一是透过发行政府债券引领市场发展；二是向目标市场的发行人 和投资者推广香港的优势；三是扩大投资者基础（如家族办公室、基金和企业财资中心等）；四是落实 推行场外固定收益及货币衍生工具制度；五是促进在香港发展回购交易中央对手方；六是扩大离岸人民 币的应用；七是完善互联互通机制，以提升离岸人民币流动性及增加人民币相关产品供应；八是为固定 收益及货币市场基建做好准备迈向未来；九是助力新一代电子交易平台的发展；十是促进市场创新及落 实代币化固定收益及货币产品的用例。（第一财经记者 黄思瑜） ...