行 行业周报 资金情绪回落，多品种价格回调 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2026 年 2 月 4 日 钢铁 有色金属 证券分析师 张珂 022-23839062 zhangke@bhzq.com 研究助理 重点品种推荐 洛阳钼业 增持 中金黄金 增持 华友钴业 增持 紫金矿业 增持 中国铝业 增持 近三月行业指数走势图 投资要点： 行业情况及产品价格走势初判 钢铁：后续随着春节前需求季节性走弱，钢材库存或进一步累积，需关注宏观 情绪对钢价影响。 铜：临近春节假期下游需求将减弱，资金情绪回落，短期铜价或调整后震荡运 行。 铝：资金情绪回落，春节前需求预计将走弱，短期铝价或迎来调整后震荡运 行。 黄金：我们认为金价回调后，后续地缘政治风险以及美国国内政治不确定性 （如政府停摆风险）仍有望为金价提供底部支撑，需警惕风险事件缓和对金 价的压力。另外，我们认为美国总统特朗普提名的新美联储主席未来偏鸽派 的可能性更大，后续美联储政策或超出市场预期，有望支撑金价。 锂：抢出口需求叠加供应偏紧预期，容量电价政策也有望改善需求预期，锂价 调整过后有望获得支撑。 稀土：春节前需求或走弱，但现货供 ...

重配有色、传媒等相关行业和个股的基金表现较优 国泰海通证券 1 月基金表现回顾 [Table_Authors] 庄梓恺(分析师) 本报告导读： 2026 年 1 月，A 股上涨，债市上涨，美股上涨，油价金价均上涨。基金方面，部分 重配有色、传媒等相关行业和个股的基金表现较优。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月资本市场回顾 股票市场：A 股上涨，有色金属、传媒和石油石化行业表现较优。 2026 年 1 月，A 股上涨。2026 年开年以来，A 股市场热点赛道相继 发酵，在去年中国经济完成全年目标的背景下，A 股市场景气度保 持向上，1 月全月依然延续了慢牛上涨行情。从结构性机会来看，首 先，全球局势紧张加剧全球矿产供给不确定性，全月有色金属行业 表现靠前；其次，AI 大模型公司智谱、MiniMax 相继在港股上市， 以 AI 应用为代表的传媒行业表现出色；此外，国际能源署上调 2026 年全球原油需求增长预期，将需求增幅从此前的 86 万桶/日调整为 93 万桶/日，叠加地缘政治因素，石油石化板块本月走强。 2026 年 1 月基金业绩回顾 基金评价 /[Table_Date] ...

有色ETF银华（159871）业绩比较基准为中证有色金属指数收益率，管理人为银华基金管理股份有限公 司，基金经理为谭跃峰，成立（2021-03-10）以来回报为126.71%，近一个月回报为16.79%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月4日，有色ETF银华（159871）开盘涨1.72%，报2.301元。有色ETF银华（159871）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘涨1.78%，洛阳钼业涨3.98%，北方稀土涨0.35%，华友钴业涨1.70%，中国铝业涨1.75%，赣 锋锂业跌0.29%，山东黄金涨0.39%，云铝股份涨1.17%，中金黄金涨0.18%，中矿资源涨1.14%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs and Macquarie have raised their nickel price forecasts for 2026 due to signals from Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, indicating a reduction in production limits, which is expected to tighten ore supply [1] Group 1: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs increased its 2026 nickel price forecast from $14,800 per ton to $17,200 per ton, predicting that prices could reach around $18,700 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 as ore supply tightens [1] - Macquarie raised its 2026 LME nickel average price forecast from $15,000 per ton to $17,750 per ton, noting that Indonesia's tightening supply policy has adjusted its global nickel market balance forecast from a surplus of 250,000 tons to a surplus of 90,000 tons [1] Group 2: Supply Adjustments - Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources committed to reducing production in mid-December last year, which has contributed to the rebound in nickel prices [1] - The annual mining permit volume in Indonesia is set to decrease from 379 million wet tons in 2025 to between 250 million and 260 million wet tons this year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME copper futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with a current price of $13,350 per ton, reflecting a decline of 0.45% from the opening price of $13,503 per ton [1] - On February 3, LME copper futures opened at $12,988 per ton, reached a high of $13,526 per ton, and closed at $13,410 per ton, marking a 3.95% increase [2] - As of February 3, registered copper warrants at LME totaled 139,050 tons, with canceled warrants at 37,075 tons, a decrease of 800 tons, while total copper inventory increased by 1,450 tons to 176,125 tons [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot price in the Shanghai-London ratio was reported at 0, with an import loss of -536.38 yuan per ton, slightly worsening from the previous day's loss of -532.32 yuan per ton [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a copper futures warrant of 159,021 tons, which is an increase of 494 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - The ecological value is highlighted by the willingness of tourists to pay for quality natural resources, as evidenced by a significant increase in accommodation prices during peak seasons, with some prices rising from over 2000 yuan to 8000 yuan or even more, indicating a strong demand for eco-friendly tourism [2] - The region is addressing environmental issues such as heavy metal pollution and water pollution, with notable improvements reported. The establishment of a key metal development zone aims to attract major investments exceeding 10 billion yuan, which is expected to boost the non-ferrous metal industry’s output value by 16.9% [3] - There is a consensus among officials that ecological protection must be prioritized alongside industrial upgrades, emphasizing the need for a mechanism to realize the value of ecological products and shift from pollution control to quality enhancement [3] Group 2 - The agricultural sector is undergoing significant changes, with the number of large-scale pig farms increasing from over 2000 to 5000, and measures are being taken to relocate operations from ecologically sensitive areas [4] - The application of new technologies, such as drone pesticide spraying, is seen as beneficial for efficiency but raises concerns about the lack of unified standards and the risk of agricultural pollution, highlighting the need for operational guidelines [4] - There is a strong agreement that integrating green development principles into all aspects of industrial layout, infrastructure construction, and agricultural production is essential for maintaining ecological safety and enhancing the region's environmental reputation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, particularly in the communication equipment and internet service sectors, reflecting investor sentiment and market trends [1][2][3] Group 1: Major Stocks with Capital Outflows - Zhongji Xuchuang experienced a capital outflow of 3.07 billion, with a decline of 5.24% [2] - Xinyi Sheng saw a capital outflow of 2.33 billion, with a decline of 5.66% [2] - Liou Shares had a capital outflow of 2.07 billion, with a decline of 8.74% [2] - BlueFocus Media faced a capital outflow of 1.77 billion, with a decline of 8.88% [2] - Xinwei Communication had a capital outflow of 1.57 billion, with a decline of 9.41% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The communication equipment sector showed significant outflows, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinwei Communication leading the losses [2][3] - The internet service sector also faced notable outflows, with Liou Shares and NetEase Technology among the top affected stocks [2][3] - The cultural media sector, represented by BlueFocus Media, experienced substantial capital outflows, indicating potential investor concerns [2][3] Group 3: Additional Stocks with Notable Outflows - Industrial Fulian had a capital outflow of 1.32 billion, with a decline of 4.65% [2] - Runze Technology saw a capital outflow of 1.26 billion, with a decline of 7.24% [2] - Hunan Silver experienced a capital outflow of 0.801 billion, with a decline of 4.47% [3]

A股股票与基金开户量激增，是市场行情向好的直接体现与有力印证。 刚刚过去的1月，A股三大指数悉数收涨，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别上涨3.76%、5.03%、4.47%，科创综指则大幅收涨近12%。市场整体呈 现"小盘成长占优，大盘价值承压"的结构性分化格局，有色金属与科技两大主线交替领涨。 《金融时报》记者2月3日从上交所获悉，2026年1月，A股新开户数491.58万户，刷新2024年11月以来的单月开户纪录，环比增长89.3%，同比增长 213.1%。同月，基金新开户54.63万户，环比增长123.8%，同比增长168.7%。 | 日期 | 总数 | A股 | B股 | 基金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026.01 | 546.27 | 491.58 | 0.05 | 54.63 | 展望后市，国泰海通证券策略团队认为，A股市场有望逐步企稳。一是国内政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，有望提振中国经济前景与资产回 报；二是中国证监会近期再次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头"。 博时基金宏观团队表示，近期ETF资金流出、海外波动加大，对A股市场形成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is driven by a combination of global liquidity expectations, supply risks, and geopolitical tensions, with significant price increases observed in both the London and domestic futures markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Overview - Global macroeconomic conditions have improved, leading to a positive sentiment in the commodity market, supported by the People's Bank of China's liquidity measures and easing political uncertainties in the U.S. [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin inventory decreased to 7,095 tons, indicating tightening supply conditions [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are contributing to structural tightness in global tin supply, with Myanmar's Wa region accounting for 15%-20% of global tin supply and being a key source for China [2][3] - Demand is showing a bifurcation, with traditional sectors like consumer electronics and home appliances weakening, while emerging sectors such as AI servers, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles exhibit strong resilience [3] Group 3: Industry Chain Status - The upstream mining sector faces production constraints due to policy and natural factors, while the midstream smelting sector is pressured by tight raw material supplies and low processing fees, leading to reduced profits [4] - Downstream sectors, including solder and chemicals, are adopting low inventory strategies due to high tin prices and seasonal demand fluctuations, with restocking needs expected to be postponed until after the holiday [4] Group 4: Current Market Trends - The spot market is experiencing tight supply, with traders reluctant to sell, while downstream buyers are gradually restocking, supporting high price volatility [5] - Short-term tin prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $49,500 to $50,800 per ton, with ongoing supply-demand tightness and emerging sector demand providing core support for prices [5]

金融期货早评 宏观："十五五"首个中央一号文件公布 【市场资讯】1）美国总统特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束政府部分"停摆"。2）美联储理 事米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息不止 100 个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的 表现。不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在通胀尚未完全回落至目标之前，货币政策仍需 保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。3）澳洲联储宣布加息 25 个基点至 3.85%，为 2023 年以来的首次加息，成为 2026 年首个加息的主要发达经济体央行。4）一位白宫官员表示， 美联储理事米兰已辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席一职。5）中央一号文件《中共中央国务院 关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》发布。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】2 月市场迎来关键变量，美联储主席提名人选的鹰派立场引发降 息延后预期，叠加英国经济韧性显现，英央行 5 月前降息概率显著下降，但该流动性调整 仅为短期预期修正，欧美货币宽松的宏观背景未变。从产业与政策维度看：战略矿产与新 能源产业链，受美国关键矿产储备政策、中国供给侧管控双重支撑，铜、稀土及碳酸锂、 多晶硅等新能源标的供需缺口长期存在；人工智能产业在政策与技术驱动下 ...