本周主力资金净流出光模块和商业航天概念股。 今日（1月9日），A股全天震荡走强。截至收盘，上证指数涨0.92%，日K线16连阳，站上4100点关 口，最新报4120.43点。深证成指涨1.15%，创业板指涨0.77%。市场全天成交31523.68亿元，较昨日大 幅放量3260.66亿元。 | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 科创综指 | | 4120.43 | 14120.15 | 1803.40 | | +37.45 +0.92% +160.67 +1.15% +36.83 +2.09% | | | | 万得全A | 创业板指 | 北证50 | | 6737.75 | 3327.81 | 1524.26 | | +78.53 +1.18% +25.51 +0.77% +15.89 +1.05% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4758.92 | 8056.69 | 5881.95 | | +21.27 +0.45% +162.14 +2.05% +51.38 +0.88% | | | | 中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Government has issued a three-year action plan (2026-2028) to support the transformation and upgrading of advanced manufacturing industries, focusing on optimizing traditional advantageous industries [1] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The plan emphasizes the need for petrochemical companies to shift from oil-based products to new functional materials [1] - Steel and non-ferrous metal companies are encouraged to strengthen their production of specialty steel and expand the production of lightweight alloys [1] - Light industry companies, such as cosmetics and food manufacturers, are urged to lead new consumption trends through ecological design and to produce more domestic products [1] Group 2: Financial Support - Companies that meet the criteria for first sets of major technical equipment and first batches of new materials will receive financial support [1] - The support can be up to 30% of the product sales contract amount, with a maximum limit of 20 million yuan [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached a total of 369.64 billion, with Zijin Mining and CATL leading in individual stock trading volume. The cultural media sector saw the highest net inflow of funds, while the Media ETF experienced a significant increase in trading volume, up 214% from the previous day [1][2][8]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Stock Performance - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 166.43 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect totaled 203.21 billion [2]. - Zijin Mining topped the Shanghai Stock Connect with a trading volume of 41.33 billion, followed by Cambricon Technologies at 31.24 billion and Ping An Insurance at 21.67 billion [3]. - CATL led the Shenzhen Stock Connect with a trading volume of 50.59 billion, followed by Zhongji Xuchuang at 42.40 billion and Xinyi Precision at 31.64 billion [3]. Group 2: Sector Fund Flows - The cultural media sector had the highest net inflow of funds at 9.53 billion, representing a net inflow rate of 8.20% [5]. - The non-ferrous metals sector followed with a net inflow of 3.85 billion, while the computer sector saw a net inflow of 2.57 billion [5]. - The new energy sector experienced the largest net outflow of funds at -10.28 billion, with a net outflow rate of -3.37% [6]. Group 3: ETF Trading Activity - The Media ETF (512980) had a trading volume of 7.88 billion, with a remarkable increase of 214.96% from the previous trading day [8]. - The A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan (563360) led the trading volume among ETFs at 15.17 billion, with a growth of 1.01% [7]. - The A500 ETF Fund (512050) followed closely with a trading volume of 15.09 billion, reflecting a growth of 2.07% [7]. Group 4: Institutional and Retail Investor Activity - Institutional investors showed high activity, with two AI application stocks, Liou Co. and Kunlun Wanwei, receiving significant investments of 2.04 billion and 2.12 billion respectively [11][14]. - Retail investors also actively purchased AI application stocks, with Kunlun Wanwei receiving 1.72 billion from a leading retail investor [14]. - The stock of Jin Feng Technology faced significant selling pressure, with two institutions selling 4.77 billion [12].

| 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000969 | 安泰科技 | 10.00 | 10.75 | 63248.64 | | 601899 | 紫金矿业 | 2.53 | 1.36 | 55136.73 | | 002428 | 云南锗业 | 10.01 | 16.45 | 52580.59 | | 603993 | 洛阳钼业 | 5.07 | 1.48 | 37485.55 | | 600549 | 厦门钨业 | 10.00 | 4.51 | 36757.25 | | 000630 | 铜陵有色 | 3.68 | 4.67 | 30926.79 | | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 1.44 | 3.98 | 28226.33 | | 300748 | 金力永磁 | 6.48 | 9.87 | 25212.10 | | 000831 | 中国稀土 | 3.96 | 5.61 | 23184.87 | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 5.75 | 1.51 | 22731.76 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that rare earths and cobalt are significantly undervalued compared to gold and copper, which have become crowded investment options. It suggests that these materials, supported by tightening supply, surging demand, and favorable policies, have the potential to double in value over the next two years. Group 1: Supply Constraints - The supply of rare earths is tightly controlled by the government, with annual quotas for mining and processing set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. By 2025, imported ores will also be included in these controls, leading to a more concentrated supply structure [3] - The supply of cobalt is heavily impacted by export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which are expected to be significantly reduced by 2026. This creates a challenging environment for increasing supply, despite rising demand forecasts [3] Group 2: Demand Surge - The demand for rare earths is driven by the booming electric vehicle and wind energy sectors, with a reported 38.9% increase in electric vehicle production in April 2025. Additionally, the anticipated production of humanoid robots will further increase the demand for rare earth materials [4] - Cobalt is essential for batteries in smartphones and energy storage systems, with demand expected to rise sharply due to the continuous growth in global electric vehicle sales and energy storage installations. The International Energy Forum predicts explosive growth in demand for critical minerals like cobalt over the next 20 years [4] Group 3: Policy and Valuation Support - Recent policies, such as the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)," support the development and technological advancement of strategic resources like rare earths and cobalt, significantly reducing investment risks [5] - The current valuation of rare earths and cobalt is low, with the rare earth industry index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of just over 60, while the industry is expected to grow at 30%. This mismatch indicates substantial room for valuation recovery [5]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 沪镍不锈钢市场周报 利润修复产量回升 镍不锈钢震荡调整 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 获取更多资讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 3 周度回顾：本周沪镍主力冲高回调，周线涨跌幅为+4.70%，振幅12.50%。截止本周主力收盘报价139090元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国劳动力市场未显明显压力，上周首次申请失业救济人数环比微增至20.8万，低于预期 21.2万；美债收益率反弹、美元四周新高。基本面，菲律宾进入雨季，镍矿进口量回落趋势；印尼明年RKAB计划 大幅削减配额，原料供应趋紧引发市场担忧，长期仍需看传导进程。冶炼端，印尼镍铁产量维持高位，回流国内 数量预计增加；国内精炼镍产能较大，近期镍价回升，利润得到修复，预计后续精炼镍产量将再度回升。需求端， 不锈钢成本镍铁下跌，钢厂利润改善，预计排产量高位；新能源汽车产销继续爬升，三元电池贡献小幅需求增量。 国内镍库存增长趋势，市场逢回调采买为主，现货升水高位；海外LME库存增长放缓。技术面，放量增仓大幅回 调，多空分歧较大。 观点参考：预计短线沪镍宽幅调整 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a mixed economic outlook [1][9]. CPI Analysis - The rise in CPI is attributed to three main factors: increased prices of vegetables and fruits due to prior rainy weather, the effectiveness of year-end consumption promotion policies leading to higher prices for appliances, mobile phones, and cars, and a significant increase in gold prices, which boosted industrial consumer goods prices [2][3]. - The month-on-month CPI increase was primarily driven by rising prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy, which rose by 0.6%, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI increase [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for four consecutive months, reflecting sustained consumer demand and effective consumption policies [3]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month increase of 0.2% in December 2025 marks the third consecutive month of growth, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries and rising prices in the non-ferrous metals sector [6][7]. - Key industries such as coal mining and processing, lithium-ion battery manufacturing, and new energy vehicle production showed price increases, indicating a positive trend in industrial pricing [7]. - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 1.9%, but the decline is narrowing, with macroeconomic policies positively impacting certain industry prices, particularly in the digital economy and green transition sectors [9].

ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍震荡下跌，沪期镍主力月2602合约开盘报136440元/吨，盘中最高报 139800元/吨，最低价报133430元/吨，收盘报139090元/吨，下跌3820元/吨，跌幅为2.67%，沪镍主力月 2602主力合约成交量1121426手。 据长江有色属网统计：1月9日ccmn长江综合1#镍价138500元/吨-148600元/吨，均价报143550元/吨，较 前一日价格下跌6300，长江现货1#镍报138500元/吨-148600元/吨，均价报143550元/吨，较前一日价格 下跌6300，广东现货镍报138500元/吨-148600元/吨，均价报143550元/吨，较前一日价格下跌6300。 ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，当前基本金属市场正经历宏观情绪、资金流向与产业现实的三重压力测试。 强势美元削弱了以美元计价的大宗商品的吸引力，而市场风险偏好在关键数据公布前趋于谨慎，进一步 导致资金从金属等风险资产中流出。与此同时，需求端面临季节性淡季与全球制造业疲软的双重制约， 高库存成为压制价格的核心现实。以镍为例，其价格正从前期基于宽松预期的估值驱动，快速回归至由 基本面供需主导的定价 ...

Group 1 - The national production material market prices increased by 0.3% from the previous week during the period from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026 [1] - Prices of non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with copper, aluminum, and zinc increasing by 2.9%, 1.4%, and 0.7% respectively [1] Group 2 - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices were mainly up, with polypropylene and sulfuric acid both increasing by 0.2%, while methanol decreased by 0.1% [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable, with urea and compound fertilizers holding steady compared to the previous week [2] - Steel prices showed a slight decline, with rebar priced at 3360 yuan per ton, remaining stable, while ordinary medium plates and channel steel decreased by 0.2% to 3639 yuan and 3544 yuan per ton respectively [2] Group 3 - Wholesale prices of finished oil experienced a slight decline, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [3] - Coal prices saw a minor decrease, with coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite priced at 1037 yuan, 774 yuan, and 1156 yuan per ton, declining by 1.4%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [3]

Core Insights - The year 2025 marked a significant "ability repricing" in China's active equity fund market, with over 90% of products achieving positive returns and a median return close to 30%, while top products exceeded 200% [1] - The differentiation in performance was more critical than the returns themselves, emphasizing the importance of timing and method in capturing structural gains [1][2] Fund Performance and Market Dynamics - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan highlighted three core changes in fund evaluation for 2025: track selection dominated annual rankings, adjustment rhythm was more crucial than long-term style, and high turnover, actively managed funds regained superiority [1][3] - The A-share market exhibited a typical "N-shaped structural market," with significant sector performance variations, particularly in metals, communications, and electronics, which saw annual gains of 94.73%, 84.75%, and 47.88% respectively [1][5] - The disparity in industry returns reached a record high, with the food and beverage sector declining by 9.69%, resulting in a 104.43% difference between the best and worst-performing sectors [1][5] Fund Manager Insights - The value of active management was validated in 2025, highlighting the importance of track timing, as 31% of top-performing products in the first half fell to the bottom 20% in the second half [2] - Fund managers who effectively adjusted their portfolios demonstrated superior performance, indicating that flexibility in trading is essential for success [2][10] Company Performance - Among companies with active equity assets exceeding 10 billion, Yongying Fund, AVIC Fund, and Caitong Fund stood out, with average performances exceeding 50%, and Yongying Fund achieving an average return of 56.76% [4] - The top-performing funds were predominantly technology-themed, leveraging industry allocation to generate substantial excess returns [8][19] Market Structure and New Fund Launches - The market's recovery was reflected in the new fund launches, with 334 new active equity funds totaling 161.9 billion yuan, marking a significant rebound from previous years [16][18] - The top new products included those with substantial initial offerings, such as the 4.955 billion yuan launch of the Zhaoshang Balanced Selection Fund [16] Key Themes and Strategies - Five major thematic opportunities emerged in 2025, with precious metals providing consistent returns, and the precious metals index rising over 111% [11] - The performance of innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption sectors was notable, with significant gains in the first half of the year, although they faced declines later [11][14] - The ability to switch between multiple tracks and manage drawdowns effectively became a critical factor for fund success in 2025 [15][19]