Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of meal products has improved, and the market has staged a rebound. The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as import volume and cost support, while the rapeseed meal market is relatively stable. The overall soybean market is under pressure, and the price center is expected to move downward. The domestic meal market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with high inventory and weakening demand. The market is concerned about the uncertainty of future supply due to the lack of clear macro guidance [2][3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The US soybean market showed a significant decline. The domestic soybean meal market rebounded due to increased cost support, and the rapeseed meal market was relatively stable. The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a rebound trend [2] Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The carry - over stock of the old US soybean balance sheet was slightly increased. The new - crop production increased slightly due to the increase in planting area. The South American old - crop market was in a state of loose supply and demand, with an expected increase in production of 15.39 million tons and an increase in crushing volume of 8.21 million tons. The international soybean meal supply pressure was obvious, with an expected increase in crushing volume of 21.536 million tons in major producing areas [3] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply was loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and high inventory. The rapeseed meal demand was weakening, and the supply pressure still existed. As of September 19, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4275 million tons, the operating rate was 67.76%, the soybean inventory was 6.9466 million tons, the rapeseed crushing volume was 49,000 tons, and the operating rate was 13.06% [6] Macro - analysis - The Sino - US Madrid negotiation was completed, but there was no clear macro - guidance. The market was worried about the uncertainty of future supply. However, due to China's long - term demand for US soybeans, the price was unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [7] Logical Analysis - The market focus will shift back to the fundamentals. The overall soybean production has not changed much, and the support for US soybeans is expected to decline. The Brazilian soybean price is under pressure, and the domestic soybean meal supply and demand are relatively loose. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal inter - monthly spreads are expected to be strong [8] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to wait and see - **Arbitrage**: M11 - 1 long spread - **Options**: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [9] Soybean Crushing Profit - The report provides the crushing profit data of Brazilian soybeans from November 2025 to July 2026, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in crushing profit [10]

证券日报网讯美农生物（301156）9月22日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，公司全资子公司 乐陵美农于去年8月底注册成立，以实施公司10万吨玉米蛋白精加工项目。为尽早实现投产目标，公司 全面统筹资源，周密制定计划，积极协调各方力量，顺利完成了项目用地、立项核准、环评审批及施工 许可等关键手续。项目团队坚持高标准、快节奏推进建设工作，目前一期工程进展顺利，有望在今年内 建成并进入试生产阶段。 ...

Group 1 - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber will suspend production for approximately 90 days starting October 1, 2025, affecting an annual capacity of 31,200 tons, resulting in a revenue decrease of approximately 185 million yuan and a profit reduction of about 48 million yuan [1] - Bozhong Precision plans to transfer 18.29% of its stake in Suzhou Linghou Robot for 64 million yuan, retaining a 21.61% ownership post-transaction [1] - Haixing Electric is a recommended candidate for a State Grid procurement project, with an expected bid amount of approximately 128 million yuan [2] Group 2 - Samsung Medical is a recommended candidate for multiple State Grid procurement projects, with a total expected bid amount of approximately 193 million yuan [2][3] - Youxunda is a recommended candidate for a State Grid procurement project, with a bid amount of approximately 107 million yuan, representing 10.55% of its 2024 revenue [3] - Tiancheng Self-Control has received a notification for a seat assembly project from a well-known domestic new energy vehicle company, expected to start mass production in June 2026 [4] Group 3 - YKYY013 injection has received FDA approval for clinical trials to treat chronic hepatitis B virus infection [4] - Pulaide has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with an international electric tool brand, with a total procurement amount exceeding 700 million yuan over five years [4] - Sichuan Shuangma's subsidiary has obtained GMP certification from Russia, covering core aspects of drug quality and production systems [6] Group 4 - Boshi Co. has signed an industrial service contract worth approximately 96.99 million yuan with Guoneng Baotou Coal Chemical [7] - Wansheng Intelligent is a recommended candidate for a State Grid project, with an expected bid amount of approximately 67.98 million yuan, representing 7.25% of its 2024 revenue [9][10] - Huazi Industrial plans to sell its dairy farm assets for 38.5 million yuan, expecting a positive impact of approximately 11.7 million yuan on its current profits [10] Group 5 - Jinguang Electric has won a State Grid project with a total bid amount of approximately 28.4 million yuan, accounting for 3.82% of its 2024 revenue [11] - Nanjiao Food reported a net profit of 10,410 yuan for August, a year-on-year decrease of 98.31% [13] - Dongfang Bio's subsidiary has obtained registration certificates for two medical device products [15] Group 6 - Lanhua Kecai has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai Pangu Power to promote intelligent and efficient transformation in the coal mining industry [17] - Yabao Pharmaceutical has decided to terminate the SY-009 research project, with a total investment of approximately 87.87 million yuan to be fully impaired [18] - Tian Shili's subsidiary has received approval for a new indication for its recombinant human urokinase injection for acute ischemic stroke treatment [20] Group 7 - Su Yan Jingshen's executives plan to increase their shareholding in the company, with a total investment of between 1.9 million and 2.66 million yuan [22] - Baiyun Electric and its subsidiary have won a State Grid project with a total bid amount of approximately 162 million yuan, covering multiple equipment types [23] - China West Electric's director has resigned due to work reasons, effective September 19, 2025 [25] Group 8 - Jianan Intelligent is a recommended candidate for a State Grid project with a total expected bid amount of approximately 73.12 million yuan [26] - Juhua Technology is a recommended candidate for a State Grid project with a total expected bid amount of approximately 142 million yuan [27] - Tengyuan Cobalt's actual controller has committed not to reduce holdings for the next 12 months, holding 37.89% of the total shares [28] Group 9 - Changfei Optical Fiber announced that Draka Comteq B.V. no longer holds H shares in the company after selling 37.59 million shares [28] - Mongcao Ecological's subsidiary has signed a contract for an ecological restoration project worth 225.2 million yuan [29] - Weiao Co. plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan per share, totaling approximately 39.29 million yuan [30]

Core Insights - The agricultural processing sector experienced a decline of 0.47% on September 22, with *ST Zhongji leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.58, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97, up 0.67% [1] Agricultural Processing Sector Performance - Notable gainers included: - Yicheng Magic Hand (Code: 839273) with a closing price of 39.39, up 1.97% on a trading volume of 17,500 shares and a transaction value of 67.89 million yuan [1] - COFCO Sugar (Code: 600737) closed at 17.14, up 1.48% with a trading volume of 725,200 shares and a transaction value of 126.9 million yuan [1] - Guotou Zhonglu (Code: 600962) closed at 21.00, up 1.06% with a trading volume of 32,600 shares and a transaction value of 68.01 million yuan [1] - Notable decliners included: - *ST Zhongji (Code: 000972) closed at 3.70, down 4.64% with a trading volume of 251,200 shares and a transaction value of 93.69 million yuan [2] - Baolingbao (Code: 002286) closed at 9.56, down 3.43% with a trading volume of 139,800 shares and a transaction value of 134 million yuan [2] - Tianye Co. (Code: 832023) closed at 4.50, down 3.02% with a trading volume of 117,200 shares and a transaction value of 53.02 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The agricultural processing sector saw a net inflow of 74.48 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 118 million yuan [2][3] - Key stocks with significant capital flow include: - COFCO Sugar with a net inflow of 129 million yuan from institutional investors, accounting for 10.17% of its trading volume [3] - COFCO Technology (Code: 000930) had a net inflow of 10.87 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 6.90 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Baolingbao had a net inflow of 1.24 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 7.11 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Convertible Bond Random Forest Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Utilizes the Random Forest machine learning method to identify convertible bonds with potential for excess returns by leveraging decision trees[16][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Data preprocessing and feature engineering to prepare convertible bond datasets 2. Training a Random Forest model with historical data to identify patterns of excess return potential 3. Selecting bonds with the highest predicted scores for portfolio construction 4. Weekly rebalancing of the portfolio based on updated predictions[17] - **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrated strong performance in generating excess returns, indicating high predictive accuracy[16] 2. Model Name: Multi-Dimensional Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines macro, meso, micro, and derivative signals to create a four-dimensional non-linear timing model for market positioning[18][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Macro signals: Derived from liquidity, interest rates, credit, economic growth, and exchange rates 2. Meso signals: Based on industry-level business cycle indicators 3. Micro signals: Captures structural risks using valuation, risk premium, volatility, and liquidity factors 4. Derivative signals: Generated from the basis of stock index futures 5. Aggregation: Signals are synthesized into a composite timing signal[18][19][24] - **Model Evaluation**: Effective in identifying market trends and providing actionable signals, with the latest signal indicating a bullish stance[19][24] 3. Model Name: Industry Rotation Strategy 2.0 - **Model Construction Idea**: Constructs an industry rotation strategy based on economic quadrants and multi-dimensional industry style factors[69] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define economic quadrants using corporate earnings and credit conditions 2. Develop industry style factors such as expected business climate, earnings surprises, momentum, valuation bubbles, and inflation beta 3. Test factor effectiveness within each quadrant 4. Allocate to high-expected-return industries based on factor signals[69][71] - **Model Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong adaptability to the A-share market, with annualized excess returns of 9.44% (non-exclusion version) and 10.14% (double-exclusion version)[71] 4. Model Name: Genetic Programming Index Enhancement Models - **Model Construction Idea**: Uses genetic programming to discover and optimize stock selection factors for index enhancement strategies[88][93][97] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Stock pools: Defined for CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI All Share indices 2. Training: Genetic programming generates initial factor populations and iteratively evolves them through multiple generations 3. Factor selection: Top-performing factors are combined into a composite score 4. Portfolio construction: Selects top 10% of stocks within each industry based on scores, with weekly rebalancing[88][93][97][102] - **Model Evaluation**: - CSI 300: Annualized excess return of 17.91%, Sharpe ratio of 1.05[91] - CSI 500: Annualized excess return of 11.78%, Sharpe ratio of 0.85[95] - CSI 1000: Annualized excess return of 17.97%, Sharpe ratio of 0.93[98] - CSI All Share: Annualized excess return of 24.84%, Sharpe ratio of 1.33[103] --- Model Backtest Results 1. Convertible Bond Random Forest Strategy - Weekly excess return: 0.64%[16] 2. Multi-Dimensional Timing Model - Latest composite signal: Bullish (1)[19][24] 3. Industry Rotation Strategy 2.0 - Annualized excess return (non-exclusion version): 9.44% - Annualized excess return (double-exclusion version): 10.14%[71] 4. Genetic Programming Index Enhancement Models - CSI 300: - Annualized excess return: 17.91% - Sharpe ratio: 1.05[91] - CSI 500: - Annualized excess return: 11.78% - Sharpe ratio: 0.85[95] - CSI 1000: - Annualized excess return: 17.97% - Sharpe ratio: 0.93[98] - CSI All Share: - Annualized excess return: 24.84% - Sharpe ratio: 1.33[103] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Industry Business Climate Index 2.0 - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks industry fundamentals by analyzing revenue, pricing, and cost dynamics[27] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Analyze industry revenue and cost structures 2. Calculate daily market-cap-weighted industry indices 3. Aggregate indices into a composite business climate index[27][30] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates predictive power for A-share earnings expansion cycles[28] 2. Factor Name: Barra CNE6 Style Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates market performance using 9 primary and 20 secondary style factors, including size, volatility, momentum, quality, value, and growth[45] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate factor returns for each style factor 2. Aggregate factor performance to assess market trends[45][46] - **Factor Evaluation**: Size factor performed well during the week, while volatility factor underperformed[46] 3. Factor Name: Industry Rotation Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures industry rotation dynamics using factors like expected business climate, earnings surprises, momentum, and valuation bubbles[69] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define and calculate individual factors 2. Test factor effectiveness within economic quadrants 3. Combine factors for industry allocation[69] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong historical performance, with factors like expected business climate and momentum showing significant returns[57][59] --- Factor Backtest Results 1. Industry Business Climate Index 2.0 - Current value: 0.913 - Excluding financials: 1.288[28] 2. Barra CNE6 Style Factors - Size factor: Strong performance during the week[46] 3. Industry Rotation Factors - Historical annualized returns: - Expected business climate: 0.40% - Momentum: -0.95% - Valuation beta: 2.37%[57]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - No clear core view presented in the provided content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking of Oils and Fats - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,316 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and night - session was 209,306 yuan/ton with a - 0.11% decrease;豆油's day - session was 8,328 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase, and night - session was 8,322 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% decrease;菜油's day - session was 10,068 yuan/ton with a 0.84% increase, and night - session was 10,073 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase. The Malaysian palm oil (12/2) was 4,424 ringgit/ton with a 0.43% increase, and CBOT soybean oil was 50.59 cents/pound with a - 1.06% decrease [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For palm oil, the previous trading volume was 554,657 lots with a decrease of 73,092 lots, and open interest was 411,814 lots with a decrease of 11,365 lots; for soybean oil, trading volume was 331,651 lots with a decrease of 17,302 lots, and open interest was 571,426 lots with a decrease of 3,418 lots; for rapeseed oil, trading volume was 312,127 lots with an increase of 45,203 lots, and open interest was 352,429 lots with an increase of 26,198 lots [2] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,300 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,710 yuan/ton with an 80 - yuan increase; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 10,110 yuan/ton with a 120 - yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,100 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar decrease [2] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 16 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 382 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 42 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed and palm oil futures was 752 yuan/ton; between soybean and palm oil was - 988 yuan/ton. Palm oil 1 - 5 spread was 202 yuan/ton; soybean oil 1 - 5 spread was 276 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was 500 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - There was a phone call between Xi Jinping and former US President Donald Trump [3] - Malaysia's ITS palm oil export volume from September 1 - 20 was 1,010,032 tons [4] 3. Oil Mill Operation - In the 38th week (September 13 - 19), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%, 30,100 tons higher than expected. It is expected that in the 39th week (September 20 - 26), the operating rate will slightly decrease, with an expected crushing volume of 2.3878 million tons and an operating rate of 66.65% [5] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil was - 1, and that of soybean oil was - 1 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: International and domestic sugar markets face multiple bearish factors. International factors include a significant narrowing of the sugar production gap in Brazil's 2025/26 season, Indonesia's suspension of sugar imports, and India's approval of sugar exports. Domestic factors include high sugar imports in August, the transition between old and new seasons, and a slowdown in domestic sugar sales. The future trend of domestic sugar prices depends on the performance of the international raw sugar market [3]. - **Pulp**: Overseas broadleaf pulp is strong, driving up domestic broadleaf pulp prices, but the impact on softwood pulp is limited. The demand for pulp is supported by the peak season of finished paper, and the decline in China's pulp imports has alleviated supply pressure. However, the fundamentals lack obvious positive factors, and the upward potential of pulp prices is still uncertain [4]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper has remained stable recently, and the high basis provides some support for the futures price. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward driving force is not clear. The price increase of wood pulp provides some cost support, but the upward space may be limited before the supply further decreases [6]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market is under pressure from the steady listing of cotton in the Southern Hemisphere, the US tariff policy, and the progress of cotton harvesting in the US. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and India's extension of the import tariff exemption provide some support. The domestic cotton market is in a game between tight old - season supply and expected loose new - season supply, and the futures price may be weak [8]. - **Apples**: The futures price has fluctuated recently. The increase in the supply of early - maturing apples and the decline in prices have weakened the support for the futures price. The main logic of the apple market is the expected difference in the new season's harvest, and the futures price is expected to remain within a range [9]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube index has been weakly oscillating. The increase in warehouse receipts has increased the delivery pressure, but the inventory has been gradually depleted, and the spot price has rebounded seasonally. The futures price of the 2601 contract has fluctuated, and investors can consider corresponding trading strategies [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7700 - 7800 and a pressure range of 8400 - 8500. For Jujube 2601, take profit on long positions at high prices, with a support range of 11000 - 11500 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, be cautiously bearish, with a support range of 5430 - 5450 and a pressure range of 5560 - 5580. For Pulp 2511, adopt a range - shorting strategy, with a support range of 4900 - 4950 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Offset Paper 2601, be bearish on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4350 - 4400. For Cotton 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14200 - 14300 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 8329 | 33 | 0.40 | | Jujube 2601 | 11155 | 155 | 1.41 | | Sugar 2601 | 5540 | 17 | 0.31 | | Pulp 2511 | 4990 | - 72 | - 1.42 | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4224 | 8 | 0.19 | | Cotton 2601 | 13860 | - 140 | - 1.00 | [21] 3.2.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.20 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5830 | - 10 | - 560 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5650 | 0 | - 400 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15283 | - 36 | 278 | [28] 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only figures related to the basis of each variety are mentioned, including Apple 1 - month basis, Jujube main - contract basis, Sugar main - contract basis, Pulp main - contract basis, and Cotton 1 - month basis [37][40][41]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only figures related to the inter - month spreads of each variety are mentioned, such as Apple 10 - 1 spread, Apple 1 - 5 spread, Jujube 1/5 spread, Jujube 5/9 spread, Sugar 5 - 9 spread, Sugar 9 - 1 spread, Cotton 9 - 1 spread, and Cotton 1 - 5 spread [45][47][50]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8430 | - 231 | 2457 | | Sugar | 10364 | - 265 | - 3138 | | Pulp | 244641 | 0 | - 240079 | | Cotton | 4232 | - 206 | - 2706 | [51] 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - Related Data 3.6.1 Option Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | The price of early - maturing apples has declined steadily, and the difference in acceptance value continues. The short - term futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range | Sell a wide - straddle combination strategy | | Jujube 2601 | New jujube production increase and concentrated listing | Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2601 | Both the domestic and international fundamentals are bearish, and the supply pressure has increased | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Cotton 2601 | The market is in a long - short game, and the short - term futures price fluctuates and consolidates | Sell a wide - straddle combination strategy | | Pulp 2601 | Cost support, but the fundamental upward driving force is not strong | Sell a put option with a strike price of 4900 and a call option with a strike price of 5300 | [52] 3.6.2 Option Data of Each Variety - **Apple Option Data**: Figures related to apple option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [53]. - **Sugar Option Data**: Figures related to sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility are provided [55]. - **Cotton Option Data**: Figures related to cotton option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apples - **Production Area Weather**: Figures related to the minimum temperature and precipitation in apple - producing areas such as Yantai, Shandong, and Xianyang, Shaanxi, are provided [64]. - **Export Situation**: Figures related to the monthly export volume of apples are provided [69]. - **Inventory Situation**: Figures related to China's weekly apple storage inventory, as well as the weekly storage inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces, are provided [67]. 3.7.2 Jujubes Figures related to the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei provinces, as well as the daily arrival volume of jujubes in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, are provided [70]. 3.7.3 Sugar Figures related to the national industrial sugar inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and the spot - futures difference of sugar are provided [72][74][76]. 3.7.4 Pulp Figures related to the inventory of pulp in four domestic ports, the global producer's wood pulp inventory days, the weekly production of various types of paper, the import volume of broadleaf and softwood pulp, and the market prices of various types of paper are provided [80][82][86]. 3.7.5 Offset Paper Figures related to the capacity utilization rate, weekly production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption of offset paper are provided [88]. 3.7.6 Cotton Figures related to the retail sales and inventory of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as China's cotton industrial and commercial inventory, monthly import volume, clothing retail sales, export volume, and the production and profit data of the textile industry are provided [90][91][98].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff reduction between China and Canada, and has returned to a short - term oscillatory pattern. The market will focus on subsequent developments [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Rapeseed meal's fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bullish; inventory is bullish; the disk is bearish; the main position is bearish; and the short - term outlook is to return to an oscillatory pattern [8]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in its peak season, and the supply of the domestic rapeseed spot market is expected to improve. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has a preliminary ruling, but the final result is uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing, and geopolitical conflicts support commodities [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided. The import volume of rapeseed in September is stable, the cost is affected by tariffs, the oil mill's rapeseed inventory is falling, and the rapeseed meal inventory is slightly decreasing. Aquatic product prices are showing different trends [15][17][30]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal are increasing, and funds are flowing out [8]. 6. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is in a short - term oscillatory pattern. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the short - term trend is oscillatory, and the future trend depends on policies and the influence of soybean meal [41]. 7. Next Week's Focus - Key points include the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports, domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated. The overall futures prices of edible oils are likely to continue fluctuating and consolidating. [5][9][31] - The demand for palm oil in the producing areas is developing favorably. However, if Sino - US soybean trade resumes, the improved supply outlook may continue to put pressure on the edible oil market. Currently, domestic soybean oil is still in the process of inventory accumulation, while rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, which supports its price. [9][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Abstract - This week, the futures price of soybean oil Y2601 rose 0.07% to close at 8,328 yuan/ton, palm oil P2601 rose 0.22% to close at 9,316 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil OI2601 rose 2.14% to close at 10,068 yuan/ton. [5] Important Information - In the palm oil sector, recent heavy rainfall in Malaysia has caused severe floods, especially in Sabah. Sabah's palm oil production accounts for about 1/5 of Malaysia's total, and excessive rain may reduce palm oil production by 1 - 2 percentage points, with palm oil falling 0.47%. [6] - In the soybean oil sector, this year's US soybean exports to China are only about 1/3 of the total exports, a 85% drop in the second - quarter export decline rate. The US agricultural trade deficit in the first seven months reached a record 33.6 billion US dollars, and US soybeans fell 1.84% this week. [7] Spot Analysis - As of September 18, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,510 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at an average level compared to the past 5 years. [10] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years. [11] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at an average level compared to the past 5 years. [13] Other Data - As of September 12, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 1.455 million tons. On September 17, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 665,000 tons. [17] - As of September 18, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,622,320 tons. [20] - As of September 18, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 226 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [21] - The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 34 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [22] - The basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 226 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [24] Comprehensive Analysis - The futures prices of edible oils fluctuated and consolidated this week. The demand for palm oil in the producing areas is improving, while the soybean oil market has been giving back its previous premium. If Sino - US soybean trade resumes, it may put pressure on the edible oil market. Rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, which supports its price. [30][31]

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - Different sectors in the market show diverse trends. Some sectors like precious metals and certain agricultural products have medium - term positive outlooks but face short - term adjustments, while others such as crude oil and some industrial metals have bearish or uncertain trends in the short to medium term [1][2] - The overall market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Brent futures declined 0.33%. After the peak consumption season, there is a growing supply - demand surplus. The mid - term trend is bearish. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term fluctuations, and a strategy of combining short positions and call options is recommended [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weakening, and supply is abundant, but Russian attacks support its valuation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited supply - demand drivers [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Supply decreased slightly, and demand increased marginally. The price is supported, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [23] - **Urea**: Domestic supply is abundant, and the market is in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the progress of rigid demand [24] - **Methanol**: Short - term supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. High - inventory pressure exists, and long - term overseas gas restrictions need to be monitored [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a high - level oscillation. The mid - term trend is positive, but short - term adjustments are possible [2] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Copper prices are supported by domestic spot supply - demand, but consumption indicators are under pressure. It is expected to oscillate between 79,000 - 80,500 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: Downstream开工率 is rising seasonally, but inventory has not turned around. The resistance level is at the March high [4] - **Zinc**: The export window is approaching, and domestic inventory is under pressure. The short - term trend is bearish [7] - **Lead**: The fundamentals are improving, and there is room for upward movement in the short term [8] - **Nickel**: Affected by the earthquake in Indonesia, the short - term trend is weak [9] - **Tin**: After price adjustments, inventory is decreasing, and the price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see or use a "buy low, sell high" strategy [10] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Iron**: Both are in a strong - oscillation trend, and prices are likely to rise due to the "anti - involution" background [18][19] - **Ferro - alloys**: - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both have a high probability of strong - oscillation due to sufficient carbon supply, high iron - water production, and pre - holiday restocking [16][17] - **Non - Ferrous Metals Related**: - **Alumina**: Supply is in surplus, and the price is supported at around 2,830 yuan [6] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the decline of Shanghai aluminum but may show stronger resilience [5] Building Materials - **Steel**: - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are in a strong - oscillation. Demand for rebar is improving, while that for hot - rolled coil is falling. Attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions [14] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term trend is high - level oscillation. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by high iron - water production [15] - **Glass**: It has a high - supply and low - demand pattern. The price is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment [33] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is increasing, and the short - term price will fluctuate with macro - sentiment. The long - term trend is bearish due to over - supply [35] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is increasing, but demand is improving, and the market is slowly recovering [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has a loose supply - demand pattern and may decline. Caustic soda shows regional differences and is in an oscillation pattern [29] - **PX & PTA**: The short - term market is weak, but there is a possibility of downstream restocking after PX's negative factors are released [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is at the bottom of the range. Supply pressure is expected but currently low [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is recommended for long - position allocation in the near - month contract. Bottle - chip has limited processing - margin recovery [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oils**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The short - term trend is oscillatory. Long - term, soybean meal can be cautiously bullish [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Short - term, pay attention to trade - relation expectations. Long - term, they can be bought at low prices [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic supply bottleneck supports prices. Attention should be paid to the opening rate and trade - relation expectations [38] - **Corn**: After the new grain is on the market, the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [40] - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: The supply pressure is high, and the futures are bearish [41] - **Eggs**: The seasonal peak is ending. Consider long - positions in the far - month contract [42] - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: The short - term trend is bearish. Wait and see after the price break - down [43] - **Sugar**: The US sugar trend is downward, and the domestic market is in an oscillation [44] - **Apples**: The short - term price may decline due to lack of supply - side drivers [45] - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation is improving, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient [46] Others - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see or use an oscillation strategy [47] - **Stock Index**: The A - share market may change from a smooth upward trend to an oscillatory one. Allocate more to technology - growth sectors and consider cyclical and consumer sectors [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures prices are falling, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [48] - **Shipping**: The freight index is under pressure in the short term. The impact of the Poland - Belarus border closure on shipping demand needs to be monitored [20]